2015 NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (8-1) at Arizona Cardinals (7-2)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Cardinals were favored by 3 on the early line last week, but now are favored by 4.5, following the Cardinals’ big win in Seattle and the Bengals’ home loss to the mediocre Houston Texans. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, that shift is significant. Ordinarily, I like to go against significant line movements, because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I actually think this line is still too low.

Despite the fact that the Bengals only have one loss and the Cardinals have two, the Cardinals are a noticeably better team. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 9 games, putting up a +117 point differential, despite just a +1 turnover margin on the season. The Bengals are +83 with a +3 turnover margin.

The Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bengals “only” rank 3rd and by a significant margin, -3.48%. The Bengals might be the toughest opponent the Cardinals have faced this season, but I think the same can be said vice versa about the other side. Neither of these teams has really faced anyone tougher than the Seahawks. While the Cardinals beat the Seahawks by 7 in Seattle and won the first down battle 30-18, the Bengals needed a major comeback and overtime to beat the Seahawks in Cincinnati.

The Cardinals are a significantly better team, especially with the Bengals missing cornerback Adam Jones and defensive end Michael Johnson with injury. They’re also in a better spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. The early line has them as favored by 8 in San Francisco and teams are 29-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 79-41 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Cardinals obviously aren’t favored by 6+ here, but they should be and the logic still holds. Significantly better teams tend to win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I wish this line was 4 or lower because about 28.8% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer, but the Cardinals are definitely the right side this week. It’s just not Pick of the Week material out of fear of a backdoor cover.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

The Broncos are in a really tough spot here this week, with probably their toughest and biggest game of the season on deck, a clash with Tom Brady and the currently undefeated New England Patriots in Denver, a game in which the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 point road favorites, per the early line. Teams tend to struggle before being huge home underdogs, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. Teams are 43-80 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 22-52 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Making matters even worse is the fact that the Broncos are road favorites here in Chicago. Teams are 19-36 ATS since 2010 as road favorites before being home underdogs, as it’s understandably very hard to focus on an inferior opponent when you have such a tough upcoming game.

Speaking of the Broncos being road favorites, I think this line is way off, even with the Broncos only being favored by a point. Denver, despite their record, ranks 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their defense has been strong, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, though they haven’t been quite as good in the last 2 weeks without starting defensive end DeMarcus Ware, who will miss his 3rd straight game this week. The offense is what’s been the problem for the Broncos, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains.

The Broncos switch from Peyton Manning, who is old and banged up, to Brock Osweiler this week. Manning is officially listed as out with a foot injury, but he’s no lock to regain his job when healthy. He was playing so poorly (59.9%, 6.77 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions) that Osweiler could easily be an upgrade and the variance and unpredictably of an inexperienced quarterback scares me when betting against one, because I just don’t know how good they are, but Osweiler will be hamstrung by the same weak running game and offensive line as Manning.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been much better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy, as he’s playing some of the best football of his career under ex-Manning offensive coordinator Adam Gase. They move the chains at a 73.39% rate in the 7 games where Cutler has been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Both wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte are gametime decisions for this one, ahead of a Thursday Night trip to Green Bay, but Jeffery is expected to play and Forte’s replacement, Jeremy Langford, has been strong in his absence over the past 2 weeks. I don’t like that they play again in 4 days, but their opponent this week is tough enough that they should be focused and I don’t think they should be favored by any less than 4 points. Instead, Denver is favored by 1 in a bad spot. Chicago is my Pick of the Week.

Chicago Bears 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)

Things seem to be looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won their 3rd game of the season last week, on a last second field goal in Baltimore. Though just 3-6, Jacksonville is only a game out of first place in the AFC South, behind an Indianapolis team that just lost its starting quarterback for a month. The Jaguars also are favored and have a better record than their opponent this week, at home against the 2-7 Titans. This is just their 4th game since the start of the 2012 season in which they’ve been favored (1-2 ATS) and their 2nd game over that time period in which they’ve had a better record than their opponent. Not only are they field goal favorites, after a 2 point line movement between this week and last week, significant considering close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal, the Jaguars also have the backing of the public, at least to some extent. This is unprecedented for this team in recent memory.

The Jaguars have definitely been better over the past few weeks than they have been in recent years. In their past 6 games, they have a rate of moving the chains differential of-2.88%, which would rank 24th in the NFL on the season, significantly better than their overall rank on the season of 29th (-5.48%). What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. They got all of those players back, except Linder who is out for the season. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, though they lost Marks for the season last week, which hurts.

The Titans have had some pretty key injuries this season, including, most importantly, a two game absence by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, in which they scored a combined 13 points. In their other 7 games, they move the chains at a 72.32% rate. It hurts that top receiver Kendall Wright is out, but they should have success moving the chains against a weak Jacksonville defense. The Titans are also missing starting cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty. The defense has struggled without them this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.36% rate on the season, and very rarely have both been off the field at the same time. Still, they’re the better team and I like getting field goal protection. There’s not enough here for me to be too confident though.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Washington Redskins (3-5)

Even at 36 years of age, Drew Brees is playing very well. He’s completing 69.6% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while leading an offense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains. Last year they ranked 2nd, but they’re obviously still a very good offense and this year they’re doing it with the likes of wide receiver Willie Snead (41/626/3) and tight end Ben Watson (43/532/3) playing huge roles in the passing game. Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The defense remains weak and has had issues with injuries all year, but they rank 12th overall in rate of moving the chains differential.

However, the Redskins are a decent team, ranking 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and are finally healthy with the likes of cornerback Chris Culliver, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson all playing in this one. The Saints, meanwhile, could be missing talented left tackle Terron Armstead, in addition to more minor losses on the defensive side of the ball (linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, linebacker David Hawthorne, cornerback Damian Swann). It’s hard to back them to win straight up in Washington, so I’m going to fade the public and go with Washington, who also seems to be the sharps’ choice, but I have no confidence. I would need a field goal to take either side.

Washington Redskins 26 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Cowboys have lost 6 straight games since losing Tony Romo to a broken collarbone week 2. Romo is expected back next week, when he’s first eligible to come off of injured reserve, but it could be too late. It will be too late if they lose here in Tampa Bay. Fortunately, Tampa Bay is arguably the easiest opponent they’ll face this season. They rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential and have an awful homefield advantage, going 16-35 ATS (1-3 ATS this season) at home since 2009. Given that, the Cowboys should probably be favored by a little bit more than the point they’re favored by here.

It might sound weird to say that a team that has lost 6 straight games should be favored on the road, but the Buccaneers have just been so bad at home this season (getting outscored 142-93). Besides, the Cowboys are better than their record, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. Of their 6 losses, 4 have come by less than a touchdown. They’ll miss Sean Lee with injury this week, but getting Dez Bryant back to 100%, like he appears to be after last week’s performance, should help cancel that out a little bit. Matt Cassel isn’t the best quarterback in the world, but the Cowboys have a strong offensive supporting cast around him. The Buccaneers are missing Vincent Jackson and, even if this turns into a shootout, I think the Cowboys can still keep up and win against Tampa Bay’s awful defense.

It’s tough to love the Cowboys as long as the line is between a field goal either way though, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. On top of that, the line has been alternating. If the Buccaneers are underdogs, it puts them in a good spot, as home underdogs are 75-52 ATS off of a loss as home underdogs. However, if the Cowboys are underdogs, they’re in a good spot because the Cowboys are 20-11 ATS as road underdogs since 2009. Basically, I see this as a field goal game. I expect the Cowboys to win, but not enough to put money on them without field goal protection.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -1

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at New York Giants: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (8-0) at New York Giants (5-4)

The Giants have a winning record, but this line might not be high enough at 7.5. The Giants are not nearly as good as their record, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, largely as a result of a defense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Injuries have ravaged a group that wasn’t very talented to begin with. Middle linebacker Jon Beason is out for the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara remains out. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul returned last week, but it’s still unclear how effective he can be after blowing off part of his hand in the off-season. On top of that, the Giants lost talented defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins for the season last week.

The Giants have had success in the win/loss column this season, largely because of a +12 turnover margin, but that kind of thing is very tough to count on every week. The correlation between a team’s turnover margin in one game and its turnover margin in the next game is virtually non-existent. Even if that wasn’t true, their odds of being able to force multiple turnovers against a New England team that has 5 all season aren’t very good. The Giants are going to have a very hard time getting the Patriots off the field. They rank 1st in the league in rate of moving the chains and 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential.

It does help the Giants that the Patriots’ offense is really banged up. Running back Dion Lewis is out for the season and their top 3 offensive tackles, Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, and Marcus Cannon are also out for this one, leaving the Patriots with a very weak offensive line and without their top checkdown option. However, the Giants’ defense is so weak that it might not matter much. Defensively, the Patriots are expected to get top pass rusher Jabaal Sheard back from a 3 game absence, but talented linebacker Jamie Collins is expected to miss his 2nd straight game with an illness. This line, at the very least, is appropriate, given the talent disparity between these two teams and the ease with which the Patriots should put up points.

The Patriots are also in a good spot, with a home game against the Bills on deck. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. The Patriots are also 52-28 ATS in the Bill Belichick era against a team that beat them in their previous matchup, as the Giants did in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2011 season. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Patriots, especially with the public all over them and the Patriots’ injury situation looming larger than it has all season, but they should be able to put up a bunch of points and cover this spread.

New England Patriots 34 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

This game was really tough because there are conflicting trends on each side. On one hand, the Dolphins are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game.

On the other hand, the Eagles are big home favorites, deserved big home favorites (they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Dolphins) with an easy game on deck, a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game in which the early line has the as 8.5 point favorites. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

I’m taking the Eagles because they’re in a better injury situation. Rookie middle linebacker Jordan Hicks is out for the season, but they should be able to survive now that Mychal Kendricks, Kiko Alonso, and DeMeco Ryans are all healthy again at middle linebacker. On the offensive side of the ball, talented left tackle Jason Peters makes his return, a big boost on the offensive line. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are in their 2nd straight game without key defensive end Cameron Wake, who is out for the season, and right tackle JaWuan James. I’m not confident at all though.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at Denver Broncos (7-1)

The Chiefs only have three wins, while the Broncos have seven, but the Chiefs actually rank higher than the Broncos in rate of moving the chains differential; While the Broncos rank 17th, the Chiefs rank 15th. How can that be? Well, the Broncos are 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or fewer and the Chiefs are 1-3. These two teams are closer than their records. It hurt the Chiefs losing running back Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL a few weeks back, but the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t really been slowed, as their passing game and offensive line have been a lot better over the past few weeks and backup running back Charcandrick West has impressed. The Chiefs are also missing defensive end Allen Bailey and left guard Ben Grubbs, but the Broncos are missing defensive end DeMarcus Ware and possibly wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders for this one.

This line might feel too low at 4.5, as it seems to for most of the public, as they’re on the Broncos, but it’s actually too high. Considering close to a quarter of games are decided by a field goal or less, this line shouldn’t be any higher than 3. The odds makers have dropped the line throughout the week (it opened at 6), despite public action, never a good sign considering the odds makers always win in the long run. It’s not enough for me to confidently take the Chiefs, especially with the Broncos having an easy game in Chicago next week (teams are 73-50 ATS before being road favorites of 6+ since 2010), but they should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +4.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

Despite having 2 losses, the Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains differential battle in all 8 games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 8 games, putting up a +110 point differential, despite just a +3 turnover margin on the season.

That being said, look at who the Cardinals have been dominating: New Orleans (12th in rate of moving the chains differential), Chicago (20th), San Francisco (32nd), St. Louis (26th), Detroit (31st), Pittsburgh (18th), Baltimore (27th), and Cleveland (28th). The Seahawks are easily the toughest opponent they’ve had to date, as they rank 7th, despite a much tougher schedule that has included games against Carolina (5th), Cincinnati (3rd), and Green Bay (9th). The Seahawks are very weak on the offensive line, which has really hurt their offense, but the defense is still really good and they’ve held up well despite a tough schedule, playing close games with all 3 of those aforementioned teams.

They might not be as good as they’ve been in the past 2 years, when they won the NFC both times, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with, especially at home, where they are 21-11 ATS under Russell Wilson. They’re just 6-6 ATS in their last 12 home games, so they’re not an auto-bet at home anymore, but that’s because the odds makers have started expensively pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance into the line, not because they’ve stopped being good at home. This line is an example of that, as they’re favored by a field goal at home over a superior Arizona team. I can’t take the Seahawks this week as field goal favorites, because Arizona has been so dominant, even against a weak schedule, but I’m not confident in the Cardinals either.

Arizona Cardinals 17 Seattle Seahawks 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week of play. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago, but now favors Oakland by 3, pretty significant, considering about 23.3% of games are decided by 3 or fewer points and 15.6% by exactly a field goal. The Raiders are a solid squad, ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Vikings rank higher, ranking 10th. On top of that, the Raiders are expected to be without talented center Rodney Hudson, while, on the other side, talented defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd is expected to return for the Vikings.

The Vikings have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (San Francisco, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis) and could be distracted with an upcoming home game against the Packers, which will be easily their biggest game to date. They are expected to be 3 point home underdogs and teams are 75-113 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 43-80 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs. The Vikings aren’t guaranteed to be home underdogs of that many, but the logic holds either way. This could be a look ahead game for the Vikings, while the Raiders face one of the worst teams in the league, the Detroit Lions, next week. It’s still tough to get excited about the Raiders, so this will be a no confidence pick, but they should be the right side. This game has a very good chance to be a field goal game though, so if the line moves to 3.5, I’d probably take the Vikings.

Oakland Raiders 20 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland -3

Confidence: None

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