2015 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5)

The Eagles are 3 point favorites here in Dallas coming off the bye. Significant road favorites off of a bye tend to do pretty well, as 3+ point road favorites off of the bye are 41-13 ATS since 2002, including 21-5 ATS in a divisional matchup, like this one. However, the Eagles aren’t deserving of being favored by a field goal here. They’re the better team, ranking 11th, as opposed to 20th for the Cowboys, but the difference isn’t enough, considering this line suggests that the Eagles are 6 points better than the Cowboys.

The Eagles aren’t healthy coming out of the bye, missing talented left tackle Jason Peters with a back injury. It’s not all bad on the injury front for the Eagles, as middle linebacker Kiko Alonso is expected to return this week from an extended absence with a knee problem, meaning the Eagles are healthy with the exception of Peters, but Peters will definitely be missed. Matt Tobin will be a significant downgrade.The Cowboys, meanwhile, are only missing Tony Romo.

Obviously, that’s a huge injury still and new quarterback Matt Cassel is a significant downgrade, but the Cowboys are healthy around the quarterback now, which they haven’t been really all season. The offensive line is very good. Their receiving corps is back to full strength, after getting wide receiver Dez Bryant back from injury last week. And their defense has played a lot better in recent weeks since getting defensive end Greg Hardy and middle linebacker Rolando McClain back from suspension. Given that, the Eagles really shouldn’t be field goal favorites here, without Peters, but the public is still all over them. I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, because they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

The Cowboys are also in a pair of good spots. For one, they have a relatively easy game in Tampa Bay next week, a game in which they expected to be 1 point road favorites, per the early line. Home underdogs are 72-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. Sure, that line is only one and they could end up being underdogs depending on the outcome of this game, but teams are also 75-51 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs since 2002. The Cowboys lost last week against the Seahawks as home underdogs. I’m not confident at all, but I’m going with the Cowboys.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)

This line, Pittsburgh by 5 at home, suggests that the Steelers are measurably better than the Raiders. The Raiders rank 12th in rate of moving the chains, while the Steelers rank 18th, but that’s largely because the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger for 4 ½ games. In the 3 games that Roethlisberger has started and finished, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 77.08% rate, as opposed to 65.19% in their other 5 games, so obviously having him back from injury is huge. However, he didn’t look 100% in his first game back last week, so it’s hard to trust that he’s going to be 100% this week.

The Steelers are also really banged up on offense around him, missing left tackle Kelvin Beachum and running back Le’Veon Bell for the year and center Maurkice Pouncey indefinitely. All 3 of those players were huge parts of their dominant offense last season, an offense that sustained next to no injuries, which obviously hasn’t been the case this season. Their young defense has been better this year, ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains allowed, after ranking 25th last season, but it’s hard to trust that their offense is going to play well this week.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have had next to no injuries this season, though they did lose talented defensive lineman Justin Tuck for the season a few weeks back. Their defense hasn’t been measurably worse in the 2 games since, but they definitely do miss him, at least somewhat. They’re also in a bad spot, following a home upset win over the Jets last week, as teams are 59-103 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010. For that reason, I’m taking the Steelers, but I’m not confident at all.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)

The Buccaneers have not had much homefield advantage over the past few years. Since 2009, they are 15-36 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.10 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 6.12 points per game. On top of that, the Buccaneers are just 16-34 ATS at home over that time period. On the other side, the Giants typically travel well in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (2004), going 60-39 ATS on the road over that time period.

It also helps the Giants that they’re in their 2nd straight road game. Road favorites are 49-34 ATS off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game.

The spread, 2.5 in favor of the visiting Giants, does seem to take that into account though, at least somewhat. The Buccaneers aren’t very good, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, but neither are the Giants, who rank 24th. The Buccaneers and the Giants rank last and 2nd to last respectively in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season, so this could definitely be a shootout that goes back and forth. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Buccaneers, because about one in six games is decided by a field goal, but we’re not really getting much, if any, line value with the Giants, despite their road prowess and the Buccaneers’ home struggles. The public is also all over the Giants, which makes the Buccaneers a more attractive option, considering the public always loses money in the long run.

The Giants are getting defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul back this week, after he missed the first 8 games of the season, following an off-season firework accident. However, it’s unclear what he can give them in his first game back, as he adjusts to playing with a mangled hand, and the Giants still have a bunch of injuries, with middle linebacker Jon Beason, cornerback Prince Amukamara, and wide receiver Victor Cruz all still out. The Buccaneers have a fair amount of injuries as well, with wide receiver Vincent Jackson, defensive end Jacquies Smith, and safety Major Wright all out, but, like the Giants, they’ve dealt with injuries all season, so this is nothing new.

The Giants are also in an awful spot, hosting the Patriots next week, arguably the toughest game of their season. The early line has them as 6.5 point home underdogs in that one. Road favorites are 30-45 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 41-80 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, 21-52 ATS before being home underdogs of 6+, and 13-30 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+, over that same time period. Combining the two, road favorites are 10-27 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs of 6+.

The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are in a good spot, off of an overtime win in Atlanta last week. Teams tend to carry over that momentum as teams are 57-41 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime win as underdogs, including 29-17 ATS as underdogs. There’s enough here for me to put money on the Buccaneers. This will be an even higher confidence pick if the line moves to a field goal or more before game time, which it could. Don’t lock this one in until tomorrow morning.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-4) at New England Patriots (7-0)

The Patriots are one of four remaining undefeated 7-0 teams, along with Cincinnati, Denver, and Carolina. I don’t see that coming to an end this week, as they’re favored by two touchdowns. They go to New York to face the Giants after this one, a game in which they’re expected to be favored by 6.5 points on the road, according to the early line. Teams are 69-49 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites, 42-29 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, and 28-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites, over that same time period. In addition, favorites of 6+ are 78-39 ATS before being favored by 6+ since 2012. Without any real distractions on the horizon, the Patriots have a good chance to win big and cover this big spread.

The Patriots should be the right side, but this line is too high for me to be too confident in them, especially with the public all over them. The Patriots are obviously a very good team, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Redskins aren’t awful, ranking 15th. They’re also way healthier than they have been really all season coming out of the bye. One of the most banged up teams in the league in the first half of the season, the Redskins get top wide receiver DeSean Jackson, slot cornerback DeAngelo Hall, starting center Kory Lichtensteiger, and possibly top cornerback Chris Culliver back this week and are close to full strength. The Patriots, meanwhile, are still without top pass rusher Jabaal Sheard and are down to their 4th offensive tackle, with both Nate Solder and backup Marcus Cannon out. This should be a blowout, but I can’t be confident in the 14.

New England Patriots 34 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: New England -14

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (7-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)

The Broncos are in a good spot this week, as favorites of 6+ with another easy game on deck, hosting Kansas City next week. Favorites of 6+ are 78-39 ATS before being favored by 6+ since 2012, as significantly superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. However, the Broncos don’t deserve to be favored by that many. Despite their undefeated record, they rank just 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, as they have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown.

The Colts, meanwhile, are having a down year and rank 19th in that measure, but still don’t deserve to be underdogs of this many. Just two of their losses have come by more than a touchdown. They’re also historically very good at home and off of a loss in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era (2012). Luck is 19-9 ATS at home in his career, including 7-0 ATS as home underdogs, previously covering as 9.5 point home underdogs against the Patriots earlier this year, in a 7 point loss. Luck is also 15-3 ATS off a loss in his career. The Broncos have no business being favored by this many points in Indianapolis in this spot.

This line was only a field goal a week ago, before moving to six in the week since, following Denver’s big home win against the previously undefeated Packers. Despite that big movement, the public is still all over the Broncos. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run and I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense because those tend to caused by overreactions to a single week of play.

The Broncos’ defensive performance last week was no fluke and they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season, but I think their offensive performance was a fluke, as they still rank 30th in rate of moving the chains on the season (the reason why they’re only 10th overall). The Broncos don’t get a bye week to rest their ancient quarterback and put together a great gameplan for this game like they did for last week’s game. They’re also in a bad spot, as teams are 59-103 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010, including 15-31 ATS as favorites.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play, in addition to the fact that the Broncos do have a pretty easy game on deck, meaning they have no upcoming distractions. The first is that they’re kind of in a tough spot off of an overtime loss. Teams are 54-72 ATS off of a road overtime loss as underdogs since 1989. The second is that the Colts’ top receiver TY Hilton might not play, after not practicing all week, while the Broncos aren’t missing anyone of note. Hilton’s injury hurts Andrew Luck’s chances against what’s obviously a good defense, a problem because Luck himself is dealing with a throwing shoulder injury and possible broken ribs. However, the Broncos’ offense isn’t good either and the Colts’ defense has actually been their better unit this season, especially now that they’re healthy, after dealing with injuries early in the season. They rank 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season. They should be able to keep this one close and possibly even win here at home as 6 point underdogs. I’m confident enough in the Colts to put money on them.

Denver Broncos 17 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +6

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (4-3) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

The Vikings rank higher than the Rams in rate of moving the chains differential, 16th vs.23rd. However, I’m going with the Rams here this week on the road, for a few reasons. For one, the Vikings have had an easier schedule than the Rams, only playing one team that is .500 or better. The Rams, meanwhile, have faced 4, beating the Seahawks and the Cardinals, but losing to the Steelers and the Packers. The Rams also have fewer injuries, only missing defensive end Chris Long, while the Vikings are missing defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd and middle linebacker Eric Kendricks.

The Rams are also in a way better spot. While the Vikings go to Oakland next week, where they are expected to be 1.5 point underdogs, the Rams host the Bears, against whom they’re expected to be favored by 7.5 points. Teams are 166-94 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, teams are 28-48 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Vikings won by a field goal as road favorites in Chicago last week.

I’m not confident enough in the Rams to put money on them because this line has shifted from 3 to 1.5 in the past week, a bigger deal than people realize because close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal. In spite of that, the public is on the underdog, part of the reason why this line has dropped and we’ve lost line value. However, I do think the Rams should win this one outright. These are comparable football teams and the Rams are in a way better spot.

St. Louis Rams 16 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-6)

The Falcons have been exposed a little bit in recent weeks. They needed overtime to beat the Redskins in Atlanta, lost in New Orleans, only won by a field goal in Tennessee, who was starting a backup quarterback, and then lost at home in overtime to the Buccaneers last week. On the season, they have just 2 wins by more than 4 points and they haven’t played a single team with a winning record. Despite that, they’re favored by 7.5 points here on the road in San Francisco.

This line was 4 a week ago and typically I love fading significant line movements like this because they tend to be overreactions to single weeks. However, despite the fact that the Falcons are not as good as their record, I actually think this line is too low, if anything. The 49ers are in complete disarray right now. Following a brutal off-season in which they lost about half of their starters, they rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin. Starting wide receiver Anquan Boldin is out for this one, as is starting running back Carlos Hyde. The 49ers are also without top backup running backs Reggie Bush and Mike Davis with injury, so they’ll be going with a committee of Kendall Gaskins, their 4th string running back, and free agent acquisitions Shaun Draughn and Pierre Thomas, who have been with the team for less than a week.

On top of that, they’ve benched starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick for Blaine Gabbert. Kaepernick certainly wasn’t playing well at all, but Gabbert has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league whenever he’s been counted on to play in his 5 year NFL career, completing 53.2% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. As bad as Kaepernick has been, Gabbert is a clear downgrade and, combining that with the injuries, this line movement is perfectly legitimate. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential. That’s inflated by their week schedule, but I’d still take them here in San Francisco as up to 10 point favorites.

They’re also in a good spot going into a bye. Good teams tend to take care of business going into a bye and win big as big favorites. Home favorites of 6+ going into the bye are 59-20 ATS since 2002. The Cardinals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 40-26 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. Matt Ryan is also 25-13 ATS off of a loss in his career. I can’t bring myself to put money on the Falcons as long as the line is over a touchdown, especially with the public is all over the Falcons, but they should win this one pretty easily.

Atlanta Falcons 24 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-4)

The bye came at the perfect time for the Buffalo Bills, who limped into the bye with two straight losses, including a loss in London to the Jaguars, in a game in which they were missing starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, talented backup running back Karlos Williams, starting wide receivers Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins, and star defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Bills aren’t 100% this week, but they definitely come out of the bye healthier. Harvin has been put on injured reserve (I know, shocker), Kyle Williams remains out, and Sammy Watkins is going to be a game time call after tweaking his ankle injury late in the week, but Taylor and Karlos Williams are both definitely returning. Taylor’s return is definitely the biggest one, as he was playing pretty well before going down, while backup quarterback EJ Manuel didn’t play well in his absence.

However, the Bills also come out of the bye into an awful spot, with a Thursday night trip to New York to play the Jets on deck, following this home contest against the Dolphins. Divisional home favorites are 21-58 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, one of the worst spots a team can be in. On top of that, favorites are 42-67 ATS before a Thursday night game since 2008. Meanwhile, divisional home favorites are just 31-54 ATS against a team they previously beat that season as divisional road favorites, as the Bills did back in week 3.

This would be my Pick of the Week most weeks. The only reason it’s not this week, in addition to the fact that I really like the undefeated Panthers as field goal home underdogs against Green Bay, is because the Bills are a slightly better team and are only favored by a field goal. They rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Dolphins rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. On top of that, they’re getting healthier, while the Dolphins just lost one of their top defensive players, Cameron Wake, for the season. However, the Bills are still far from healthy and we’re still getting field goal protection with the Dolphins (15.6% of games are decided by a field goal) and, of course, the Bills are in an awful spot. I really like Miami this week.

Miami Dolphins 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Carolina Panthers (7-0)

The Packers are coming off of an embarrassing offensive performance in a loss in Denver. Their high powered offense moved the chains at a mere 68.18% rate and generated just 140 yards of offense, the fewest they’ve had in a game started by Aaron Rodgers in his whole career. Some are brushing that performance off as a product of the Broncos’ defense, who have been called arguably the greatest defense of all time this week by some. The Broncos certainly have a great defense, one that ranks 1st in the league in rate of moving the chains allowed, but calling them an all-time great at this point is a huge overreaction.

I’m not so sure the Packers will find too much more offensive success this week in Carolina, who rank 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Obviously there are some fluky elements to the Packers having such a poor offensive performance last week, even against a great defense like Denver, but there are legitimate reasons for concern. This offense hasn’t been the same this year without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season. They rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, but that’s a far cry from last year, when they ranked #1. As I mentioned, the Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league, with defensive tackle Kawaan Short, middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, outside linebacker Thomas Davis, and cornerback Josh Norman all playing at an All-Pro level, so the Packers could definitely have issues moving the ball again this week.

The Panthers’ offense is pretty average, as it’s really been their defense that’s carried the team to their 7-0 record, while the Packers’ defense has been pretty solid, though it’s concerning that they struggled to contain a Denver offense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains this season. It’s possible that performance can be chalked up to a fluke and a product of Peyton Manning and company being rested and having a great game plan off of a bye, but, either way, the Packers rank lower in rate of moving the chains differential than the Panthers (8th vs. 5th) and yet the Packers are the ones getting a field goal here on the road, away from Lambeau where they’re so good. Since 2010, they’re 41-7 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.98 points per game (31-17 ATS), but just 27-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.12 points per game (24-24 ATS). This season, in addition to last big week’s loss in Denver, they’ve had trouble with both Chicago and San Francisco on the road and those are two of the worst teams in the league.

The Panthers are also in a good spot, going to Tennessee next week, a pretty easy place to play. Home underdogs are 72-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. On top of that, teams are 106-82 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 69-49 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 42-29 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. It hurts the Panthers that they’ll be without talented left guard Andrew Norwell, but they get center Ryan Kalil back this week and the Packers have an equally big injury as cornerback Sam Shields hasn’t practiced all week and is considered very questionable at best.

It does help the Packers that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 41-28 ATS since 2008 as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game. Aaron Rodgers is also 21-10 ATS off a loss in his career, which should give Packers fans some hope for a bounce back performance. However, I still think taking the field goal with the better team in the better spot at home is a no brainer here, especially with the public heavily on the Packers. This is my Pick of the Week.

Carolina Panthers 24 Green Bay Packers 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-0)

The Bengals are 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and are one of four remaining undefeated teams. Their undefeated season is highly unlikely to end this week, as they’re favored by 10 at home against the lowly Browns. I actually don’t think that line is high enough, as the Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns rank all the way down at 27. This is a matchup between one of the worst teams in the league and one of the best teams in the league and I don’t think this line quite reflects that. I have this line calculated at around 15.

That’s before we even get into these two teams’ respective injury situations. The Bengals have a couple of starters who will likely miss this game because of injury, linebacker Rey Maualuga and right tackle Andre Smith, but the Browns will likely be missing quarterback Josh McCown, wide receiver Brian Hartline, wide receiver Andrew Hawkins, cornerback Joe Haden, and safety Donte Whitner. On their own, none of those injuries are too damaging to this team (Haden and Whitner are having down years), but they all add up. The biggest one might be the one to their quarterback McCown. McCown isn’t very good, but Manziel is probably even worse and the task of preparing for a team like the Bengals, on the road, on a short week when you’ve had very little practice time with the first team is borderline impossible, especially with some receivers also missing with injury.

The Bengals are also in a great spot with no upcoming distractions on the horizon, hosting the Texans next week. The Browns, meanwhile, have to turn around and go to Pittsburgh next week. The Bengals will undoubtedly be favored by 6+ again, while the Browns undoubtedly will be underdogs of 6+ again. Teams are 77-39 ATS since 2012 as favorites of 6+ about being favorites of 6+ again, while underdogs of 6+ are 40-63 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. Combining the two, teams are 35-13 ATS as favorites of 6+ before being favorites of 6+ when their opponent will be underdogs of 6+ again the following week, since 2010. There’s just too much for the Browns to overcome this week and, without a ton of public money on Cincinnati, I’m really confident in the Bengals as 10 point favorites. There are a few other lines I really like this week, but this one is definitely up there.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -10

Confidence: High

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