2015 NFL Picks

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

The Broncos lost at home 29-13 to the Chiefs week 10, but it turns out that bottoming out was exactly what the Broncos needed. Peyton Manning played so poorly in that game, completing 5 of 20 passes for 35 yards and 4 interceptions, that the Broncos shut him down so he could heal from some injuries. Brock Osweiler has been an improvement over 3 games, all wins, while Manning waits in limbo. They have a decision to make down the road, but, so far, the Broncos have moved the chains at a 70.71% rate in Osweiler’s 3 starts, as opposed to 66.43% in Manning’s 9 starts.

The Broncos also have the league’s #3 defense, in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed. They’re kind of banged up on that side of the ball right now, missing linebacker Danny Trevathan and safety TJ Ward, but they’re coming off of a dominant performance in San Diego and this team, right now with Osweiler under center, is more talented than their rank in rate of moving the chains differential, which is 8th. The Raiders, meanwhile, are less talented than their rank, 13th. They get center Rodney Hudson back this week, which is big, but their defense has been pretty weak since losing defensive end Justin Tuck for the season with an injury (week 5) and outside linebacker Aldon Smith for the season with a suspension (week 10). This line seems pretty appropriate at a touchdown and neither team is in a great spot or anything, so I’m just going to fade the public and take the points for a no confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 23 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Oakland +7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4)

When these two teams met in the playoffs last year, the Cowboys were 8-0 on the road and the Packers were 8-0 at home, the first time in NFL history a team that hadn’t lost at home hosted a playoff game against a team that hadn’t lost on the road. The Cowboys covered as 5.5 point underdogs, but lost the game in a very controversial 26-21 ending. This matchup is a little different. Quarterback Tony Romo is out for the season for the Cowboys and the same is true of wide receiver Jordy Nelson for the Packers, key players on both of these offenses. The Packers have lost their last 2 straight up at home, both as significant favorites like they are here.

However, as long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-14-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-6 straight up, with an absurd +604 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.42 points per game. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 19-10 ATS as road underdogs since 2010. That makes it tough to pick which team is going to cover. Rate of moving the chains differential doesn’t help out much either. The Packers rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Cowboys rank 17th and have moved the chains at a slightly worse rate in the 8 games Tony Romo has missed (69.14%), as opposed to the 4 games he has played (72.80%). This line, -7 in favor of the Packers, is pretty appropriate.

I’m going to take the Cowboys for three reasons. For one, the Packers are missing center Corey Linsley, which could easily hurt their offense. Two, the Packers are heavily backed by the public and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. Three, the Packers have lost their last two home games, so they’re not exactly an auto-bet at home anymore. The Cowboys are a solid road team that can keep this close, but I wouldn’t want to have any sort of money going against Green Bay. It’s a no confidence pick.

Green Bay Packers 23 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +7

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (10-2) at Houston Texans (6-6)

The Patriots are 33-17 ATS off of a loss when Tom Brady starts and they haven’t lost 3 straight since 2003. The problem is that the public is all over New England. They seem to rightfully see New England’s loss last week at home against the Eagles for the fluke that it was, a game in which the Patriots lost by a touchdown despite allowing 3 return touchdowns and going 1 of 3 on onside kick attempts. The Patriots moved the chains at a 73.81% rate, as opposed to 68.00% for the Eagles, and if a few things that almost never happen didn’t happen, the Patriots would have likely won by double digits. With the Patriots getting healthier this week, the public can’t see the Patriots not winning by more than 5 and covering this 4.5 point spread.

However, close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less so this could be a close game much more easily than the public seems to think. The standard adjustment for homefield advantage is about 2.5-3 points, so this line suggests that the Patriots would be favored by about 10 or 10.5 over the Texans in New England. Considering the Eagles were just +9 last week, that doesn’t make much sense. I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

New England is healthier, with linebacker Jamie Collins going into his 2nd game back from an illness, defensive tackle Dominique Easley returning, and tight end Rob Gronkowski likely to suit up following a one game absence, after practicing with the team Thursday and Friday and making the trip on Saturday. But they’re far from full strength. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower did not travel with the team, so he’ll miss his 2nd straight game, wide receiver Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis are obviously still out, and, while Gronkowski is expected to play, he could be used in a limited fashion just two weeks after he hyperextended and bruised his knee. Guard Josh Kline is also out.

The Texans are much closer to 100%. They don’t have anyone listed as anything less than probable this week and their only key player on injured reserve is running back Arian Foster, who he barely played this season, totaling just 390 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches. Defensive end JJ Watt broke his hand in practice this week, but he’s expected to play and, as Jason Pierre-Paul has shown, hands aren’t the most important thing for defensive linemen. The Texans rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential and, with outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and cornerback Kareem Jackson now healthy, they’re as talented a team as that suggests in a league that seems to be less talented across the board this season. I don’t love going against New England this week, but this is just too many points.

New England Patriots 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +4.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (5-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-8)

The Giants host the Panthers next week (against whom they’ll be 3.5 point home underdogs), so they could easily be caught looking forward to that game this week, when they face the Dolphins in Miami, a game in which they’re favored by 2.5. Road favorites like the Giants are 32-46 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-125 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs and 45-84 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Combining the two, teams are 55-82 ATS as road favorites before being 3+ point home underdogs since 1989.

We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins. While the Dolphins rank 29th in rate of moving the chains, the Giants aren’t much better at 26th, as they’ve been overly reliant on winning the turnover margin this season. Their turnover margin on the season is great at +10, but there’s almost no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and its turnover margin the next week. You just can’t rely on that every week. Despite that, the public is all over the Giants, probably because they don’t know that. The only thing stopping me from being confident in the Dolphins is the fact that the Giants are 60-40 ATS on the road in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (2004). If the line moves to a field goal, I’d consider putting money on the Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Giants 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Miami +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-8) at St. Louis Rams (4-8)

Everything about this game screams to me to take St. Louis and the field goal. The Rams have gone from 2 point home favorites to field goal home underdogs in a week, from the early line last week to the line this week. I love to fade a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, as they tend be overreactions to a single week of play. It makes sense here. Despite the fact that the Rams rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, we’re getting some line value with them, as the Lions rank just 27th, especially since about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal

It’s no surprise that we’re getting line value with the Rams, as they’ve lost two straight games by 21 or more. Teams are 43-27 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21+, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Rams could easily be all 3 this week. The Rams are also home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, a spot teams are 75-52 ATS in since 2002. Despite all of this, the public is all over the Lions. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run.

However, the Rams are just such a mess right now. Defensive end Robert Quinn, cornerback Janoris Jenkins, and safety TJ McDonald are all out this one, so the Rams are far less talented defensively than their 5th place rank in rate of moving the chains allowed suggests. Offensively, they don’t just rank dead last in rate of moving the chains; they’re also easily the worst offense I’ve seen in years. Transitioning to a new offensive coordinator this week, the Rams are going to have a really hard time moving the chains this week and their defense isn’t talented enough anymore to even come close to compensating. As currently constructed, they might be the worst team in the NFL. I’m taking the Rams, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 15 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +3

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-2)

The Steelers had a big week last week. Not only did they big win, 45-10, over a competent Indianapolis team, but the Seattle Seahawks won big (38-7) on the road in Minnesota, against a solid Vikings team, so the Steelers’ loss the week before to the Seahawks looks a lot better now. The Steelers have been playing much better football since Ben Roethlisberger returned from injury. They rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and have moved the chains at a 75.65% rate in the 8 games Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their 4 games without Roethlisberger.

However, I feel like this line is getting too carried away, with the Steelers as mere 2.5 point favorites in Cincinnati. That’s significant because about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly and it means that the Steelers are seen as the better of these two teams. That seems to overlook that the Bengals are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL (even missing cornerback Adam Jones), ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They beat the Steelers 16-10 in Pittsburgh a few weeks back and that was when Roethlisberger was healthy. This line seems to forget that. The Bengals are also in a great spot, as the early line has them favored by 7 in San Francisco next week. Teams are 31-14 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. The Bengals are 10-1-1 ATS on the season and seem to be getting undervalued here again. I’d put money on them winning by at least a field goal, as the better team, without an upcoming distraction.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8)

The Colts lost in Pittsburgh 45-10 last week, but still rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 28th. Given that, I think we’re getting at least some line value with the Colts as 1 point underdogs. That’s no surprise, considering teams are 51-26 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more points since 2002. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed off of a loss like that. I don’t expect the Jaguars to overlook the Colts, considering the Colts still lead the division, but the Colts definitely seem undervalued.

They could also easily be embarrassed after last week’s debacle against a tough team and get back on track against a weaker team this week. The Colts generally do well against weaker teams, particularly divisional opponents in what has been arguably the weakest division in football over the past few years. Since Chuck Pagano took over in 2012, the Colts are 16-5 ATS against the division, 19-7 ATS against opponents with a losing record, and 13-3 ATS against divisional opponents with a losing record.

It also helps the Colts that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 126-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 103-62 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 221-219 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.37 points per game, as opposed to 311-431 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.83 points per game.

The Colts are banged up, missing quarterback Andrew Luck, left tackle Anthony Castonzo, and middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman. Luck has been missing for a while and wasn’t playing well even when on the field, so that one doesn’t matter too much, but Castonzo is missing his 4th straight and Freeman his 2nd straight and they’ve both been missed in their absence. I still am taking the Colts for a money play, but I really wish we were getting a field goal with them.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +1

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (4-8) at Cleveland Browns (2-10)

The Browns have the league’s worst record, so the public seems to be confused why they’re favored here, at home against the 49ers, as the public is all over the visitor. I’m confused why they’re not favored by more. They were favored by a field goal a week ago on the early line. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. It makes sense to do both here, so the Browns are an intriguing side.

They’re a better team than the 49ers, ranking 30th, as opposed to 32nd for San Francisco. That might not seem like a big difference, but the 49ers are so far into last place that the Browns are closer to 17th than last. Given that, it doesn’t make any sense why the line moved off of 3 (even with talented guard Joel Bitonio now out for the season with the Browns), considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less. I actually think the Browns should be favored by more than a field goal and that the 49ers overtime win in Chicago was a fluke, so, while teams are 56-44 ATS since 2002 after winning on the road in overtime, we’re still getting enough line value with the Browns to compensate.

The Browns are in a tough spot with a trip to Seattle on deck, for a game in which the early line has them as 13.5 point road underdogs. Teams are 88-145 ATS since 2008 before being double digit underdogs, including 17-31 ATS as favorites. However, the 49ers also have a very tough game on deck, as the early line has them as 7 point underdogs at home for the Bengals next week. Teams are 42-88 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2008. As long as the line stays under 3, the Browns should be the right side.

Cleveland Browns 19 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Saints 26-19 as 10 point underdogs in New Orleans earlier this year. However, there are two reasons why the Saints could easily get revenge. For one, they’re in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 54-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one. Secondly, the Buccaneers have never had much of a homefield advantage, as they are 18-35 ATS at home since 2009.

The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot, as they are expected to be road underdogs in St. Louis next week, while the Saints will be home favorites against the Lions. Favorites (like the Buccaneers) are 98-167 ATS before being underdogs (as they will be next week), if their opponent will next be favorites (like the Saints will be next week). However, the Buccaneers are only one point underdogs in St. Louis on the early line next week, so they could easily up being road favorites and the logic doesn’t really hold up either way because the Rams aren’t good enough for the Buccaneers to get caught looking forward to them. However, the Buccaneers do have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football and that hurts them, as favorites are 47-70 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. With the Buccaneers favored by 5 points and about 3 in 10 games decided by 4 or fewer points, I’m confident putting money on the Saints.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 New Orleans Saints 30

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (7-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-8)

The Seahawks are just 7-5, but they’ve lost to tough opponents like the Packers, Bengals, Cardinals, and Panthers (all 4 losses were within 10 points) and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Seahawks are relatively healthy right now. They’re missing defensive tackle Jordan Hill and running back Marshawn Lynch, but Hill isn’t that important and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls (5.57 YPC) has run much better than Lynch this season (3.76 YPC), as Lynch has been banged up all year. They once again seem to have hit their stride late in the season, as they have in every year of the Pete Carroll era (since 2011). They are 24-6 ATS in the last 8 games of the regular season over that time period and they’re in a good spot to cover again this week.

While the Seahawks host the Browns next week, against whom they’ll be favored by 13.5 points, according to the early line, the Ravens host the Chiefs, against whom they’ll be underdogs of 5 points. Road favorites are 90-65 ATS before being favored again when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2012. Going even further into it, favorites of 6+ (like the Seahawks this week) before being favorites of 6+ again (like the Seahawks next week) are 80-42 ATS since 2012, as superior teams tend to take care of business without an upcoming distractions. On the Ravens’ side, teams are 45-84 ATS before being home favorites of 4+and 23-55 ATS before being home favorites of 6+, since 2012. On top of this, road favorites off of a road win (like the Seahawks) are 45-32 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games.

All of that being said, this line is way too high at 12. That’s a major shift from last week, when the Seahawks were favored by just 4.5 on the early line. I love fading significant line movements whenever they make sense as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The line movement does make some sense. The Seahawks are coming off of a huge victory (38-7 in Minnesota). and the Ravens are pretty banged up, missing quarterback Matt Schaub, left tackle Eugene Monroe, and tight end Crockett Gillmore (in addition to all of the major players they have on injured reserve like quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Justin Forsett, wide receiver Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, tight end Dennis Pitta, and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs).

Jimmy Clausen will start for the Ravens, after being signed mid-season from the Bears. He started for the Bears in Seattle earlier this year, in Jay Cutler’s absence, and the Bears picked up just 7 first downs in that one, not a surprise, considering Clausen is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. He doesn’t have much talent around him and I don’t expect the Ravens to move the ball easily, but the Ravens’ defense has played well this season, especially of late. They rank 12th in rate of moving the chains allowed, despite the injury to Suggs and off-season losses of Haloti Ngata and Pernell McPhee. That’s a big part of the reason why the Ravens haven’t lost by more than 8 all season, a trend I could definitely see them continuing this week. The Seahawks rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Ravens rank 22nd and, even as banged up as they are, they still should be the right side when getting this many points. I just can’t bring myself to put money on it.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Baltimore Ravens 6

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +12

Confidence: Low