2015 Week 13 NFL Picks

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6)

The Texans started the season 1-4, but have won 5 of their last 6 games. This is a legitimate team in a generally weak NFL this season, as they rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. Brian Hoyer isn’t the best quarterback in the world or anything, but his job is made easy by a defense that ranks 7th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They’ve beaten the Jets and Bengals recently with backup quarterback TJ Yates playing, because of how good their defense has been recently.

They’re also arguably the healthiest team in the NFL, as they don’t have a single player listed as anything lower than probable. Arian Foster is their only key player on injured reserve and he barely played this season, totaling just 390 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches. Jadeveon Clowney being healthy and showing his #1 overall pick talent in recent weeks has been huge for them and they got cornerback Kareem Jackson back from a 4 game absence last week. They’re coming off probably their best defensive performance of the season last week, allowing a Saints offense that ranks 5th in rate of moving the chains to move the chains at a mere 58.33% rate. There’s a very good chance they carry that over into this week, against a much weaker offense.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential and have plenty of injuries. Kyle Williams and Percy Harvin are out for the season and have been since week 5 and week 6 respectively. Defensive end Mario Williams returns from a 1 game absence, but he hasn’t played well this season and the Bills are also missing right guard John Miller, right tackle Seantrel Henderson, running back Karlos Williams, and outside linebacker Nigel Bradham. Despite that, they’re favored by 3.5. Given that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, I’m confident enough in the Texans to put money on them.

Houston Texans 13 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Oakland Raiders (5-6)

This line was 2.5 in favor of the Chiefs on the early line last week, but has since moved to a field goal. It might not seem like it, but, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly, it’s a significant line movement. I like to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I think it makes sense here. The Raiders are missing key players, as defensive end Justin Tuck went down for the season week 5, outside linebacker Aldon Smith got suspended for a year week 11, and center Rodney Hudson will miss his 3rd game in the last 4 weeks. Those were all key players to their hot early start

However, the Chiefs are shorthanded as well, missing outside linebacker Justin Houston (one of the top defensive players in the league), center Mitch Morse, and safety Husain Abdullah. The Chiefs rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 15th, so it doesn’t make a ton of sense that the Chiefs are favored by a whole field goal in Oakland. Despite that, the public is all over the Chiefs. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run and I’d be able to fade the public and a significant line movement by taking the Raiders here. That certainly makes sense and I’m taking the field goal with confidence.

Oakland Raiders 19 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Tennessee Titans (2-9)

About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so the fact that this line is 2.5 in favor of the Titans at home, instead of 3, is very important, considering I think the Titans are the better of these two teams. That’s not what this line suggests, so the Titans are a really intriguing side to me. Despite their 2-9 record, tied for worst in the NFL, the Titans rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, so they’re not quite as bad as their record. They also have moved the chains at a 72.13% rate in Marcus Mariota’s 9 starts, as opposed to 57.41% in the 2 games he missed.

The Jaguars rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, but have gotten better as the season has gone on, as they had a rate of moving the chains differential of -10.95% in their first 3 games, as opposed to -4.61% in their last 8 games. What happened? Well, they got healthier, as left tackle Luke Joeckel, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and tight end Julius Thomas have all returned from early season injuries. However, they’re going to be without outside linebacker Dan Skuta and wide receiver Allen Hurns in this one, so they’re pretty banged up. Particularly the Hurns injury is going to hurt, because he’s playing so well this season and this is his first game missed. As long as this line stays under a field goal, I’d put money on the Titans.

Tennessee Titans 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (3-8) at Washington Redskins (5-6)

This line favored the Cowboys by 3 points last week in the early line, but now the Redskins are favored by 4. Obviously, Dallas’ loss of quarterback Tony Romo for the season was a big part of the line movement, and rightfully so, but I do think this line is a little high, especially considering about a quarter of games are decided by a field goal or less. This could still easily be a field goal game, despite Romo going down. The Cowboys got blown out at home by the Panthers last week (33-14), but there isn’t a ton of shame in that, even if the Cowboys did have Romo healthy for most of the game.

The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL and the game would have been a lot closer if the Cowboys didn’t lose the turnover margin by 3 and the return touchdown margin by 2. Those types of things are easy to clean up week-to-week and the 5 of the Cowboys’ 8 losses came by a touchdown or less. They’re also almost completely healthy other than Romo, as only two other players were listed on their injury report, both of whom are expected to play.

The Cowboys rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. They obviously move the chains better when Romo is out there, 72.80% in his 4 starts, as opposed to 70.23% in their other 7 games, but they haven’t been awful without him, despite their 0-7 record in those other 7 games. As I mentioned, most of their losses have been close. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. They beat the Giants as home underdogs in Washington by 6 last week, but the Giants were missing their top two offensive linemen.

I feel like that game, along with the Cowboys’ game from hell, are inflating this line. That’s certainly not a surprise. That tends to happen and is part of the reason why teams are 43-71 ATS off of a win as home underdogs, as the Redskins are here. The Cowboys are also 18-10 ATS as road underdogs since 2010. I’m expecting a field goal game or so, so I’m going with the Cowboys here, though I’m not confident enough to put money on them.

Washington Redskins 23 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas +4

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (11-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-7)

The Panthers were favored by 3.5 on the early line for this one, but the line has since shifted to 7 in favor of the Panthers. Ordinarily I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements, but I think this line just caught up with how good the Panthers are and how big of a talent disparity there is between the two teams. The Panthers rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Saints rank 21st. The Saints used to have a big homefield advantage, 35-19 ATS at home since 2008 (3-0 ATS as home underdogs), excluding the season when Sean Payton wasn’t coaching, but they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The last time they were at home, they lost in overtime to a Tennessee team that is just 2-9 this season. The magic seems to have disappeared and the Saints should have a lot of trouble with a very good Carolina team. This line is accurate.

With that in mind, I like the Panthers, because they’re in a good spot. They host the Falcons next week, a game they’ll be favored by 8.5 in, and favorites of 6+ or more are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. It makes sense that good teams would be able to take care of business without any upcoming distractions and blow out an inferior opponent. It also helps that they’re in their 2nd of two road games.

Road favorites off of a road win are 44-31 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. There’s not quite enough for me to be confident in the Panthers with the line this high, but they should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)

The Cardinals failed to cover last week in San Francisco, winning by just 6 points, as 10 point favorites, but I like their chances of covering this week as 5 point favorites in St. Louis for a few reasons. For one, they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Road favorites off of a road win are 44-31 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game.

The Cardinals should have won by more than 6 last week anyway, as they won the first down battle by 9, 26-17. That’s not particularly impressive against the 49ers, but they haven’t lost the rate of moving the chains battle all season and in their two losses won the first down battle by a combined 20. They rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams are all the way down 28th. Defensive end Robert Quinn is out for the 4th straight week for the Rams and they’ve really missed him. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains, so they’ve had to rely on their defense to have any success this season and they haven’t been playing nearly as well defensively without Quinn. The Cardinals are missing running back Chris Johnson, defensive end Frostee Rucker, and defensive end Corey Redding, but none of those players are as important as Quinn and the Rams are also missing talented cornerback Trumaine Johnson.

This should be a relatively easy game for the Cardinals and they’re expected to be favored by 6 next week at home against the Vikings. Favorites of 6+ or more are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. The Cardinals are only favored by 5, but it was 6 earlier in the week and it really should be 10 given the talent disparity between these two teams. Either way, the logic makes sense. Superior teams tend to blowout out inferior teams when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. They do have to play next week on Thursday Night and favorites are 46-70 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. I’m also a bit concerned that the line is dropping despite the public being all over the Cardinals, as that suggests the sharps are on the Rams, but I just think we’re getting too much line value to pass on. I wouldn’t put money on this one unless the line drops to 4 though.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against the spread: Arizona -5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (9-2) at San Diego Chargers (3-8)

The Chargers’ 3-8 record is one of the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their record is largely the result of a 3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -6 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, a -8.2 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -4.5 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 11 games and could easily be 5-6, 6-5, or even 7-4. They rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 3 spots behind the 10th ranked Denver Broncos, who they play this week.

The Chargers are also healthier than they’ve been all season, as tight end Antonio Gates, tight end Ladarius Green, safety Eric Weddle, left guard Orlando Franklin, left tackle King Dunlap, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, right guard DJ Fluker, and wide receiver Keenan Allen have missed a combined 30 games this season with injury. Fluker, Dunlap, and Allen are out, but other than Ladarius Green, who is listed as probable, none of the other guys even come up on the injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, lost safety TJ Ward to a high ankle sprain last week and will be without outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware for the 4th straight game. Those are two key missing defenders on a defense that’s otherwise been really healthy this season.

Making matters worse for the Broncos this week is that they’re coming off of a huge, emotional overtime victory over the New England Patriots, as home underdogs. They could be overconfident coming off of that game, as teams are 43-71 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs and 8-19 ATS since 2002 off of win as home underdogs in overtime. Despite that, and the fact that the Chargers are underrated and this line is too high, and that the Chargers are getting healthier while the Broncos are going the other direction, the public is still all over the Broncos, as 4 point road favorites. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

There are three reasons why this is just a medium confidence pick and not a Pick of the Week. One, the line did move from last week to this week, so the Chargers are only 4 point underdogs now. We’re still getting value with them, but it’s less and I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. It doesn’t make sense here, but I’d like the Chargers more at 6, though close to 3 in 10 games are decided by four points or fewer.

Two, the Broncos are playing better football over the past two weeks thanks to the play of Brock Osweiler. Osweiler hasn’t been amazing or anything, but he’s been a noticeable upgrade over Peyton Manning, who looked done before going down with a foot injury. Osweiler has completed 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions and the Broncos moved the chains at a 70.62% rate in his 2 starts, as opposed to 66.43% in Manning’s 9. That definitely offsets their defensive injuries somewhat.

Three, the Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. The Chargers are 1-5 ATS at home this season, as opposed to 3-2 ATS on the road. They’re still my pick though. This is a classic trap game for the Broncos, banged up, coming off of a tough and hugely important home win, on the road, with everyone singing their praises, against an underrated team that’s gotten healthier.

San Diego Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury. They’re also likely going to be missing offensive tackle Eugene Monroe for the 2nd straight week this week, though left guard Kelechi Osemele returns from a one week absence.

As a result of all of these losses, the Ravens are 4-7, rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests now with Flacco, Forsett and Monroe all going down within the last two weeks. The Dolphins rank 29th and have been horrendous defensively since losing Cameron Wake for the season week 8, but the line is only 3.5, down from 6 a week ago, a significant change. I love to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense and it does here. The Ravens have a tough game next week, at home for the Seahawks, where they’ll be 4.5 point underdogs. Teams are 74-51 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs. Given that, I’m taking the Dolphins though it’s a no confidence pick. If it goes down to 3, I might consider bumping it up to low confidence, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 24 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at New York Giants: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (6-5) at New York Giants (5-6)

This is technically a home game for the Giants, but considering they’re playing the Jets, with whom they share a stadium, it’s tough to consider this a true home game. The Giants’ season ticket holders will be there and the Giants will have control of the stadium (telling the fans to get loud and be quiet at the appropriate times), but there should also be plenty of Jets fans in the crowd and the Jets are probably going to be pretty comfortable waking up in their own beds and going to play a “road game” in MetLife Stadium.

I went back into the history of this matchup to see if the home team does noticeably better than the road team. Unfortunately, it’s a small sample size, as this is just the 7th time these teams have met since 1989. The road team is 2-4, getting outscored by 1.67 points per game, but the Giants have pretty much always dominated this matchup, winning 5 of 6 by an average of 7.50 points per game. That doesn’t really tell us much so I’m going to conservatively give the Giants one point for homefield advantage. The Giants have never had much of a homefield advantage anyway in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era (since 2004), going 54-43 (47-50 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents by 2.65 points per game, as opposed to 55-46 (60-40 ATS) on the road, getting outscored by 0.11 points per game.

While the Giants have traditionally dominated this matchup, the Jets are the better team right now. They rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants are all the way down in 24th. The Jets have outscored their opponents by 44 points on the season, with a +4 turnover margin, while the Giants have only managed +14 with a +10 turnover margin. It’s so tough to rely on winning the turnover margin every week, so I favor a team like the Jets over a team like the Giants by a lot.

The Jets are missing cornerback Darrelle Revis with a concussion for the 2nd straight week, but their offense was so much better last week with center Nick Mangold back and that can’t be ignored. Given that the Giants are only getting 1 point for homefield advantage, this line is way too low at 2. Anything up to a field goal is good value with the Jets, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I wouldn’t venture beyond 3 with the Jets with any sort of confidence, in case this line starts to climb. I like them at 2 though.

New York Jets 23 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-9)

This line was a touchdown in favor of the visiting Bengals last week, but since has moved to 9.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I think this line is still pretty appropriate, even with the Bengals missing tight end Tyler Eifert. The Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns are all the way down at 30th. They haven’t had many injuries this season and losing Eifert is very tough, but it’s hard to argue against this line being appropriate as long as it stays in single digits.

The Bengals are also in a good spot, hosting the Steelers next week, a game in which they could easily be 6+ point favorites. Favorites of 6+ or more, like the Bengals this week, are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. It makes sense that good teams would be able to take care of business without any upcoming distractions and blow out an inferior opponent. I don’t have any confidence in the Bengals and I’d switch my pick to the Browns if the line jumps to 10, as about 6% of games are decided by exactly 10 points and 10+ point underdogs are 54-32 ATS before being favorites (as the Browns will be when they host the 49ers next week) since 2002. I wouldn’t take either side with any confidence though.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -9.5

Confidence: None

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