2015 Week 4 NFL Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

This line has finally been posted as Andrew Luck has been ruled out and the Colts are 3.5 point favorites here at home for Jacksonville. For anyone who took Jacksonville earlier this week when they were +8 (like me) congratulations and if you took Indianapolis -8…well you shouldn’t have done that. I thought the Jaguars were the right side at +8 even with Luck playing. With Luck out, I still think the Jaguars are the right side, because they’re still in a good spot and the line should have shifted more than 4.5 points for Luck’s injury (Jacksonville is now +3.5).

Even though Jacksonville is banged up too, missing right guard Brandon Linder, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, and tight end Julius Thomas (though left tackle Luke Joeckel and cornerback Dwayne Gratz will return this week), I think these two teams are about even without Luck. Indianapolis’ supporting cast around Luck, for the most part, is weak, as they don’t have a very good offensive line, running game, or defense, especially against the run, while new starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 40 years old and hasn’t made a start since 2012.

Also, as I mentioned, the Jaguars are also in a great spot, as they have been all week. While we can’t use the road underdogs off of a road loss trend because this is the Jaguars 2nd of 3 road games instead of their 2nd of 2 (they go to Tampa Bay next week), teams do tend to bounce back off of blowout losses like the one the Jaguars had in New England last week, losing by the final score of 51-17. Teams are 58-38 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 34+ points, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a loss like that.

On top of that, the Colts have to play again in 4 days against the Texans in Houston (likely part of why they kept Luck out). Teams are 41-63 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday night game. The Colts are currently mere 1 point favorites in Houston and, if they perform badly here this week, they could be underdogs, which would open up another bad trend for the Colts. Teams are 21-56 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. It’s one of the most powerful trends out there that makes any sense. Finally, teams are 4-17 ATS during week 4 as favorites after winning their first game of the season in week 3, the previous week. The Colts are just in a horrible spot here, especially with the oldest quarterback in the league making his first start in 3 years for them. I put money on Jacksonville +8 earlier this week and definitely I’d still be willing to do it now at +3.5 with Luck ruled out.

The Colts typically play really well against the division and at home, going 15-4 ATS in the division since 2012 (when Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano first arrived), 18-8 ATS at home over that time, and 7-2 ATS at home against the division over that time period. They also have played well against weaker opponents during that time period, going 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later. However, it’s hard to trust any of those trends without Luck. I have a good amount of confidence that Jacksonville is the right side this week and would even put money on the money line.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Indianapolis Colts 16 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-3) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

What a difference a week can make. Last week, the Seahawks were 0-2 and missing Kam Chancellor, their stud safety, who was holding out. Now, though they’re just 1-2, they have Chancellor back and are coming off of a 26-0 win over the Bears, two occurrences that are certainly not unrelated to each other. The Bears are a weak team, especially with Jimmy Clausen under center, but it was such a dominant performance that it should quell a lot of concerns about this team. The Bears picked up just 7 first downs and moved the chains at a mere 41.18% rate, as opposed to 64.29% for the Seahawks.

A much better home team than road team, I think the Seahawks’ play for the rest of the season will resemble week 3 more than weeks 1-2. This is still a contender in the NFC. They won the NFC last season, despite losing two games in a row, at one point. The Seahawks should have another strong performance at home here against the Lions. Not only are they 21-9 ATS at home in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012), but this game is on Monday Night and western time zone teams cover about 2/3rds of the time in night games against eastern time zone teams because of sleep cycles.

The Seahawks could be missing Marshawn Lynch (and Brandon Mebane) in this one, as reports have Lynch 40% likely to play. If he does end up sitting, the Seahawks will have to start undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls. Rawls looked decent last week in relief of Beast Mode, but it’s still hard to trust an undrafted rookie behind a poor run blocking line. The good news for the Seahawks is the Lions are even more banged up. DeAndre Levy, the Lions’ best defensive player, will miss his 4th straight game with a hip problem, while right guard Larry Warford, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, and running back Joique Bell.

The Lions are 0-3 and have been one of the worst teams in the league thus far this season, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains. They’re obviously not as good as they were last season, not just because of injuries, but also because they lost Ndamukong Suh in free agency. They’ve played a tough schedule and they should be better going forward, but their schedule remains hard this week and they probably need to get healthy to start being anything more than an average at best team. The Seahawks have one trend working against them, as teams are 4-17 ATS during week 4 as favorites after winning their first game of the season in week 3, the previous week. Given that and the fact that this line is 10, I can’t be confident in Seattle, but I’m going with them.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Detroit Lions 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Chicago Bears (0-3)

It’s still unknown who the Bears quarterback will be this week at home for the Raiders. Jimmy Clausen started last week, after coming on in relief of an injured Jay Cutler the prior week. Cutler did get some practice in this week, but he’s reportedly dealing with a pretty severe hamstring pull. The team hasn’t provided any real clarity and it’s possible that they’re just keeping his status a secret to make the Raiders have to prepare for both quarterbacks. This line, at 3.5 in favor of the visiting Raiders, suggests that the odds makers don’t believe Cutler will play and that usually means something.

I like the Bears to cover this week either way, but I’d only put money on them if Cutler were to play and the Bears were to remain underdogs. I don’t really have interest in putting money on Jimmy Clausen, who has completed 53.2% of his passes for an average of 5.08 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in his career. Last week, he completed 9 of 17 for 63 yards in a game in which the Bears lost 26-0 and picked up just 7 first downs, fewest by a team in a game thus far this season.

That shutout loss did come against a Seahawks defense that is arguably the league’s toughest, especially in Seattle, where they’re are so good. Even if Clausen is forced into action again, he will have a much easier matchup this team around, though Alshon Jeffery being out again and left tackle Jermon Bushrod joining him on the sideline isn’t good news. The Raiders front seven is much improved, with Khalil Mack and Justin Tuck having good seasons again and free agent acquisitions Aldon Smith and Dan Williams joining them, but their secondary is still porous. Both the Ravens and the Bengals moved the ball through the air effectively against them and even Josh McCown had some success, though the majority of it came once the Browns fell down big early.

The Bears are also in a great spot because of what happened last week. Teams tend to bounce back off of back-to-back losses of 21+ (the Bears also lost by 25 week 2, at home against the Cardinals), going 41-25 ATS in that spot since 2002. On the other side, the Raiders are in a bad spot, hosting the Broncos next week, arguably their biggest game not just of the season, but of the last few seasons for a team that’s been so starved for success over the past decade plus.

The Raiders are expected to be 6.5 point underdogs next week when the Broncos come to town. Teams are 35-74 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 19-49 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 12-28 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this scenario, it’s more than former than the latter (though I’m still not sold on this team as a real contender), but still. On top of that, road favorites are 78-120 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs and 6-24 ATS as 3.5+ point road favorites before being 3.5+ point home underdogs, for the same reasons.

Given that, it’s going to be tough for the Raiders to cover as not only favorites, but favorites of more than a field goal, especially since this is the first time the Raiders have been road favorites since 2012. The Raiders haven’t covered as road favorites since 2005 and are just 1-5 ATS as road favorites dating back to the start of the 2003 season, right after their most recent winning season in 2002. The Bears do have to go to Kansas City next week and teams are 51-90 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The Bears are currently expected to be 12 point underdogs in the early line, though it’s unclear which quarterback that line assumes they’ll be starting. If it’s Cutler, that line shouldn’t be that high and might not be by gametime. Like I said, I wouldn’t put money on the Bears unless Cutler is able to play and even then I’d only do it if the Bears were to remain home underdogs, but Chicago should be the right side.

Update: Jay Cutler is expected to start and the line hasn’t moved, staying at 3.5. I guess the odds makers thought that Cutler would play the whole time. Cutler won’t be at 100% and neither will his supporting cast, but the Raiders aren’t proven enough yet to be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone other than the most pitiful of teams and I don’t think the Bears are that kind of team with Cutler. They kept it close at home against Green Bay week 1 with Jay Cutler and were keeping it close at home against Arizona before Cutler got hurt. Those teas are both 3-0, so I don’t know why they wouldn’t be able to keep it close with the Raiders. On top of that,the Bears are in a much better spot than the Raiders are. I’d put money on the home underdog at 3.5 and the money line at +150.

Chicago Bears 23 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

Despite being without running back DeMarco Murray, middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks, middle linebacker Kiko Alonso, and defensive end Cedric Thornton, 4 above average starters, the Eagles were able to upset the Jets in New York as 3.5 point underdogs last week. This week, they get Kendricks and Murray back, but I don’t love the Eagles chances of pulling off another win for a number of reasons, this time in Washington as 3 point favorites.

For one, the Eagles are still banged up. Alonso and Thornton might not have been missed too much last week and Murray and Alonso might be back, but it’s still not good to be missing two talented starters from your defense. You’re not guaranteed to be able to overcome that every week just because you were able to do so one time, as the Eagles did last week. The Eagles were also really reliant on turnovers and a return touchdown last week, things that are hard to rely on every week, winning the turnover battle by 3 and returning a punt for a touchdown in the 7 point win. Teams that have a turnover margin of 3+ have a turnover margin on average of +0.1 the following week. The Redskins have injury issues too, missing wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and middle linebacker Perry Riley, and possibly cornerback Chris Culliver, but I still think the Eagles are missing more.

The Eagles are also in a bad spot, as a result of last week’s win, as favorites are just 4-19 ATS since 1989 during week 4 after winning their first game of the season in week 3. Despite that and the fact that they probably aren’t quite deserving of being field goal favorites here in Washington, where the Redskins have played decently this season, the public is still all over the Eagles, as Philadelphia is one of the most heavily bet sides of the week. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, unless we were getting 3.5 or 4 points and even then I still maybe wouldn’t, but they should be the right side. The only reason I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, besides their injuries, is because they have the harder game next week, going to Atlanta, while Philadelphia just hosts the Saints, but it’s still enough to scare me off.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

Typically, the better team not only prevails but also covers when they don’t have any distractions on the horizon and the Panthers are in a good situation as a result, as they are 3.5 point road favorites in Tampa Bay this week, ahead of their week 5 bye. Road favorites of 3+ points going into a bye are 37-23 ATS since 2002. Tampa Bay also has no distractions on the horizon, with Jacksonville in town next week, but typically not having a distraction benefits the better team more. The Panthers have also typically done well against weaker opponents in the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era, since 2012, going 18-12 ATS against teams with a losing record, including 11-5 ATS on the road.

On top of that, the Panthers have played drastically better than the Buccaneers this season, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 32nd for the Buccaneers. I don’t like using that statistic quite this early in the season because there aren’t enough data points, but it’s consistent with what we saw last season, when the Panthers finished 14th and the Buccaneers finished 30th. The Buccaneers thought they improved themselves this off-season, adding guys like Jameis Winston, Henry Melton, and Bruce Carter, but Winston has struggled mightily as a rookie, Carter has already lost his starting job, and injuries have wreaked havoc on this team, as they are missing cornerback Johnthan Banks, center Evan Smith, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and possibly left tackle Donovan Smith with injuries for this one. Meanwhile, top defensive player Gerald McCoy is at less than 100% with a shoulder problem. The Panthers are missing Luke Kuechly for the 3rd straight week with a concussion, but they’ve still played well without him, while the Buccaneers have not played well at all this season.

The Buccaneers have also never really had much of a homefield advantage. Since 2009, they are 14-35 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.20 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 6.12 points per game. On top of that, the Buccaneers are just 15-33 ATS at home over that time period and have already gotten destroyed at home by the Titans by the score of 42-14 week 1. They haven’t won at home since week 14 of 2013. This line seems too low and I’m happy to lay the points.

Carolina Panthers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

No other team has been as successful in the first 3 weeks of the season as the Arizona Cardinals. Not only do they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, they also rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains and 1st in rate of moving the chains allowed. Of course, they’ve also had arguably the league’s easiest schedule, beating New Orleans (0-3), Chicago (0-3), and San Francisco (1-2), none of whom seem likely to even sniff the post-season. The Rams might be the toughest opponent they’ve had yet and they’ve not very good either, 1-2 and also unlikely to sniff the post-season. I’m curious to see if the Cardinals, who are playing drastically better than they did last season, can keep it up once the schedule gets tougher, but we won’t find out this week.

The Cardinals are only favored by a touchdown here, despite the fact that they’ve won their first 3 games by an average of 25.67 points per game, winning each game by at least 12 points. As a result, the public is all over them, as the Cardinals as the most heavily backed team this week thus far. Typically I like to fade the public on heavy leans because they always lose money in the long run, but they might have the right side in this one. In addition to being significantly inferior to the Cardinals, the Rams are also in a terrible spot with another tough game, a trip to Green Bay, on deck. Teams are just 70-95 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again and the Rams are expected to be 9 point underdogs next week. Arizona, meanwhile, goes to 0-3 Detroit next. I’m not that confident, but Arizona should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 24 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins in London: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-2) in London

The Dolphins fell flat on their face in their home opener last week, losing 41-14 to the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins, for some reason, haven’t had much of a homefield advantage in recent years, going 13-12, getting outscored by an average of 0.04 points per game, at home, while going 12-15, getting outscored by an average of 2.08 points per game, on the road, since 2012, the start of the Ryan Tannehill/Joe Philbin era. Maybe that’s why they’ve agreed to give up one of their Miami games to play a game in London as the “home team” this week. They played in London as the road team last year and blew the Raiders out by the score of 38-14. I think having that experience of travelling across the ocean to play in London, which the Jets don’t really have, gives them an advantage.

The Dolphins have been the biggest disappointment in the league, in my opinion. They were arguably the best non-playoff team in the league last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. I thought they improved on the offensive line, improved in the receiving corps, and improved on defense, thanks to the massive addition of Ndamukong Suh, this off-season. They still had some issues at guard, cornerback, and safety, but I thought they could be a top-5 team. That hasn’t happened, as they are coming off of an embarrassing home loss and are 1-2, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite an easy schedule.

The Dolphins might not ever reach their potential until they get rid of Joe Philbin and this coaching staff and, if that’s true, it’s important that they get rid of them soon, to save this season. With 9 players scheduled to take up a combined 101 million on their 2016 cap, this team went all in on this season and will be in salary cap hell for a few off-seasons afterwards as a result. They need to get results on the field as soon as possible. I still think they’re talented enough to turn it around though and I like their chances as 2 point underdogs here against the Jets. The Dolphins were in a very similar situation last year going into this game and turned their season around.

The Jets have had a solid start to their season going 2-1 and ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, after ranking 28th a season ago. I do think they’re an improved team, thanks to several off-season additions, including Darrelle Revis and Brandon Marshall, but also Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to play solidly, as he did in Tennessee in 2013 and Houston in 2014, and might be the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington was healthy. They’re also getting Eric Decker and Chris Ivory back this week, after neither played last week with injuries in their first loss of the season. I still think the Dolphins are more talented, despite what the first 3 weeks have shown, and I like them in this spot, so they should be able to cover, but I’m not confident, especially with left tackle Branden Albert once again out with a hamstring problem.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

The Broncos are one of seven 3-0 teams in the league right now, but they only rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among undefeated teams. Their defense has been great, improving on a strong 2014 in their first season with Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator, but their offense ranks 25th in rate of moving the chains, as the offensive line has struggled mightily, CJ Anderson has looked slow, and Peyton Manning, while still capable, has looked every bit of 39 years old. The Vikings, meanwhile, are 2-1 and rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, after winning back-to-back home games against Detroit and San Diego.

Given that, this line at 6.5 might seem too high, but the Broncos are also in such a good spot that I’m actually going with the Broncos this week, especially without a huge public lean on Minnesota. The Broncos go to Oakland next week, so they don’t have any real distractions on the horizon. The Vikings don’t either, going into a bye, but the better team usually prevails and covers without a distraction on the horizon. The Broncos are projected to be 6.5 point favorites in Oakland next week. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again and teams are 64-43 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point favorites, and 27-12 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. As long as this line is under a touchdown, the Broncos should be the right side, but I wouldn’t put money on it.

Denver Broncos 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-3)

At one point, the Saints had won 20 straight home games, covering in all but 2 of them, but now they’ve lost 6 straight home games, all as favorites. They are favored here again at home, though only by 3.5 points, against a Dallas team that is so banged up right now and just lost pretty easily at home to an average at best Atlanta team. Not only are they missing Tony Romo and Dez Bryant from an offense that had next to no injuries last season, but they’re also missing rookie defensive end Randy Gregory and suspended free agent acquisition Greg Hardy, though they will get defensive end Jeremy Mincey back from a concussion this week after he missed last week’s game against Atlanta. This line isn’t giving the Saints nearly the same respect at home as they are used to, which increases their chances of covering.

The Saints are also getting a few key players back from injury, as Drew Brees, who missed his first game with injury in over a decade last week, returns, as do key defensive backs Jairus Byrd and Keenan Lewis, who will be making their season debuts. Guard Jahri Evans will miss his 2nd straight game with a knee injury and they made a weird move by sending starting defensive tackle Akiem Hicks to the Patriots for a backup tight end and, after a rough off-season, this team is still a far cry from even last year’s team, but I think they have a good chance of beating the Cowboys by at least 4 and covering here. The Cowboys are 18-8 ATS as road underdogs since 2010, but it’s unclear how the loss of the starting quarterback will affect that.

It definitely helps the Saints that the Cowboys are in a terrible spot, hosting New England next week, against whom they will are expected to be 8.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 35-74 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 19-49 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 12-28 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s probably both in this situation.

The Saints have to go to Philadelphia next week, which isn’t easy, but they’re still in a much better situation. On top of that, Drew Brees is 24-8 ATS since 2008 off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is coaching, including 16-5 ATS at home off a loss. He’s only 4-6 ATS off of a loss over the past 2 seasons, including 2-4 ATS at home off of a loss, so that trend has definitely lost some luster too, like their homefield advantage, but the Saints should be the right side here. I wouldn’t put money on it though.

New Orleans Saints 27 Dallas Cowboys 21

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Bills have had a great start to their season. Their defense has been as good as advertised, with the exception of a game against New England, who no one has been able to stop this season, while their offense has exceeded expectations thanks to the emergence of quarterback Tyrod Taylor and rookie running back Karlos Williams, as well as the addition of Richie Incognito in free agency. In addition to the loss to New England, the Bills have beaten both the Dolphins and Colts easily.

I didn’t think Taylor would play that well because he fell to the 6th round in 2011 and didn’t make his first career start until his 5th year in the league this year. Typically, guys like that don’t have much success because it’s a league where having a quarterback is so important that a starting caliber quarterback doesn’t usually fall through the cracks like this. I sided with the odds, which is usually the right move, but he’s beaten the odds so far, completing 74.4% of his passes for an average of 9.15 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. It’ll be interesting to see if this can continue. It’s only been 3 games and the league could still figure him out, but he’s been good so far.

The Bills are pretty banged up this week, missing 4 starters, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Aaron Williams, and John Miller with injury. The Giants are banged up too, missing Robert Ayers, Jason Pierre-Paul, Victor Cruz, and William Beatty with injury, but they’ve been missing those guys for most of the season. They’ve also led the league in adjusted games lost to injury in each of the last 2 seasons. The Bills’ injuries are new. The Giants are also typically a better team on the road than they are at home. They are 52-42 (45-49 ATS) at home since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 53-43 (58-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game.

The Giants are also in great spot with no upcoming distractions, hosting the 49ers next week. Teams unsurprisingly tend to cover in these spots, going 115-79 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. The Bills go to Tennessee next week, which isn’t too hard, but I like the Giants’ spot more because they don’t have to go on the road next week. On top of that, week 4 underdogs who just won their first game of the season week 3 are 32-10 ATS since 1989. I wish this line was higher than 5 (though the odds makers might be trying to keep the line low to so there aren’t big sharp bets on Buffalo) and I can’t be too confident with the line this low, but the Giants should be the right side.

Buffalo Bills 16 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +5

Confidence: Low

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