49ers

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-10) at Chicago Bears (2-9)

The 49ers have lost 10 straight games, but are favored here on the road. To give you an idea of how rare that is, the 49ers are just the 5th team since 1989 to be favored despite being on a losing streak of 10+ games and just the 2nd team since 1989 to be favored on the road despite being on a losing streak of 10+ games. It’s not like most of those 10 losses were close either, as 7 out of 10 came by double digits and the average margin of defeat is 14.4 points. That being said, I couldn’t be confident enough in the Bears to put money on them unless we were getting a full field goal with them.

The Bears are incredibly banged up right now and might be the worst team in the league. They’re missing their top two quarterbacks (Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer), their top-3 pass catchers (Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, and Zach Miller), their best offensive lineman (Kyle Long), and three of their best defensive players (middle linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman and cornerback Kyle Fuller), while outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, outside linebacker Willie Young, starting guard Josh Sitton, and slot receiver Eddie Royal are all expected to be gametime calls. Even if the Bears aren’t the worst team in the league, the 49ers are still in a better spot in their second of two road games, with an easy home game against the Jets on deck (in which they will likely be favored again). The Bears, meanwhile, have to turn around and go to division leading Detroit next week. I’m taking the points, but unless the line creeps up to 3 this is just a low confidence pick. The money line might be your best bet here at +110.

Chicago Bears 23 San Francisco 49ers 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Chicago +2

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-4)

The Browns haven’t won a game this season, but there’s an argument to be made that the 1-9 49ers are the worst team in the league this season. They don’t rank dead last in first down rate differential, but that’s only because of a 28-0 blowout win week 1 over the Rams. The Rams have not been good this year (one of two teams with a worse first down rate differential than the 49ers), but that win looks like a complete fluke given what’s happened since. Since that week 1 win, the 49ers have lost 9 straight games by an average of 15.22 points per game with all but 1 loss coming by double digits.

The Dolphins are a solid team that has a 6-4 record and that ranks 12th in first down rate differential, so they should be able to hand the 49ers another big loss. However, it’s tough to be confident in the Dolphins when they’re going to be missing at least their top-2 and maybe their top-3 offensive linemen. Center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Branden Albert remain out, while Laremy Tunsil is a gametime decision at best. Tunsil has played well this season at left guard and has also played left tackle well when Albert’s been injured, so that would be a huge loss for them if he can’t go. The Dolphins are the pick in pick ‘em pools, but I wouldn’t bet anything real on them.

Miami Dolphins 24 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against the spread: Miami -7

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-8)

The Patriots lost last week at home to the Seattle Seahawks. It was just their 2nd loss of the season, but there’s reason for concern. The Patriots’ defense got gashed all game in their first game since the controversial Jamie Collins trade. Also controversially, the Patriots are not even bringing defensive end Jabaal Sheard on this trip with them, even though he was a starter 3 weeks ago before their bye and arguably their best defensive lineman last season. Sheard was relegated to backup snaps last week and now won’t play at all, even though he’s healthy. Between Collins, Sheard, and Chandler Jones, who was controversially traded this off-season, the Patriots are missing a big chunk of last year’s strong front 7, so how they played defensively last week is concerning. The Patriots will also be without tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Chris Hogan with injuries in this one. Gronk’s injury is obviously the more important one and he’ll miss at least this week with a chest injury.

All that being said, the Patriots get about as soft of a landing spot after last week’s loss as possible with this trip to San Francisco. The 49ers enter the game 31st in both first down rate differential and point differential, only ahead of the Browns in both categories. They also lead the league in double digit losses with 7 and their average margin of defeat is 15.5, so the Patriots don’t even really have to play that well to cover this line. The Patriots’ defense has issues, but their offense has been incredible this season, even in last week’s loss. On the season, they rank 4th in first down rate and 2nd in first down rate percentage, despite being without Tom Brady for the first 4 games of the season with suspension. Since returning, Brady has played better than any quarterback in the league and the Patriots figure to have a big offensive performance once again this week, even without Gronkowski.

The Patriots are also in a much better spot than the 49ers, as they have an easy game on deck, a trip to New York to face the Jets, while the 49ers go to Miami, which isn’t easy. The early line has the Patriots as 9 point favorites in New York, while the 49ers are 8 point underdogs in Miami. Underdogs of 6 or more are 48-76 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more again, while favorites of 6 or more are 89-50 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. Combining the two, favorites of 6 or more are 7-31 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more again, when their opponent will next be underdogs of 6 or more again. The Patriots are also 45-24 ATS off of a loss in the Bill Belichick era (since 2010). The Patriots are battling some adversity right now, but this game still has blowout written all over it.

New England Patriots 31 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: New England -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

The Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. I didn’t bet heavily on them in their last game as 3 point underdogs in Carolina because they were coming off of a 5-quarter tie (which is usually a tough situation) and because Carolina was also underrated. I was hoping the Panthers would beat the Cardinals so we could get even better value with the Cardinals coming out of their bye in week 10. The Panthers did beat the Cardinals, 30-20, but the Cardinals also lost left tackle Jared Veldheer and cornerback Tyrann Mathieu for an extended period of time with injuries in that game. Those two are critical players for this team. On top of that, they’re still 13.5 point home favorites here because their opponents, the 49ers, have been so terrible this season, so we’re not really getting good line value with the Cardinals either, especially when you take into account their injury situation.

That being said, I’m still taking the Cardinals here. Despite their 3-4-1 record, they rank 6th in point differential and 1st in first down rate differential. Their losses to New England and Los Angeles were both very close, while their tie to Seattle could have been a win if one of a number of different things had gone their way. They have won the first down battle in 7 of 8 games and are legitimately a few plays away from being 6-2 right now, after finishing 13-3 and in first place in first down rate differential in 2015. Their offense isn’t what it was last season, but their defense has been even better. Their special teams have been problematic, but, even without Veldheer and Mathieu, this is still one of the best teams in the league.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have lost their last 7 straight by an AVERAGE of 17.29 points per game, so all of a sudden this line at 13.5 doesn’t seem so high. Just two of their losses came by fewer than two touchdowns. One of those 2 losses by less than two touchdowns was a 12 point home loss to these Cardinals week 5, even though the Cardinals were starting backup Drew Stanton in place of injured starting quarterback Carson Palmer. With Palmer back, the Cardinals should be able to win big here at home.

The Cardinals are in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play a much tougher Minnesota team next week, a game that could have significant playoff and playoff seeding implications. The Cardinals will almost definitely be road underdogs in Minnesota next week and favorites of 10 or more are just 54-73 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs, as teams can overlook significantly inferior opponents with a tough game on deck. That being said, the 49ers are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and host the Patriots next week, a game in which they’re whopping 14.5 point home underdogs on the early line. That could be a major distraction for the 49ers. Underdogs of 10 or more are 48-79 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 10 or more again, while teams are 37-89 ATS since 2012 before being 4.5+ point home underdogs. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in putting money on the Cardinals as home favorites of this many points, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -13.5

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-6)

The Saints pulled a big home upset last week against the Seahawks. Part of the reason they were able to do that is because they didn’t have any upcoming distractions on the schedule, with this game in San Francisco against the 1-6 49ers on deck. Home underdogs tend to cover before being road favorites. Unfortunately for the Saints, the opposite also tends to be true, putting the Saints in a very tough spot this week as 4.5 point road favorites. This game is sandwiched between last week’s home upset win and another tough home game next week against the Denver Broncos, in which they are home underdogs on the early line. Teams are 56-78 ATS off of a home upset victory since 2012 and, over that same period of time, teams are just 16-31 ATS as road favorites before being home underdogs.

The 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league, but they could still easily take advantage of the Saints likely not being 100% focused on this seemingly easy game. I’m not saying the 49ers are going to win, but this line is 4.5 and about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I like the 49ers chances of at least keeping it close this week. This line was 2 a week ago on the early line, so we’ve had significant line movement through the key numbers of 3 and 4 in the past week as a result of the Saints’ victory. That’s a huge overreaction, as the Saints were in a great spot last week and playing a Seattle team that was missing two of its best defenders.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One is the Saints get two key defenders back from injury this week, as top cornerback Delvin Breaux will play for the first time since week 1 and 1st round pick defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins will make his NFL debut. They will help a defense that has been the worst in the league this season, though they’ve had the worst defense in the league in each of the past 2 seasons as well, so this is still a very weak unit. The second reason is the 49ers go to Arizona next week, a game in which they could be double digit underdogs (the early line is at 11). Teams are 40-61 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs. That big divisional clash could be a distraction for San Francisco. I’m still taking the 49ers as long as the line is higher than 4, but it’s a medium confidence pick only.

New Orleans Saints 24 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers: Week 7 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5)

The 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league and there are very few teams I’d predict them to defeat, but I think the Buccaneers might be one. The Buccaneers enter in 28th in first down percentage differential and are very banged up. They’re missing their top-2 running backs, Doug Martin and Charles Sims, starting wide receiver Vincent Jackson, starting left guard JR Sweezy, starting defensive tackle Clinton McDonald, and top pass rusher Robert Ayers. With those players, this is one of the 5 least talented teams in the league.

That being said, the 49ers are probably still an inferior team (25th in first down percentage differential despite an easy schedule), so we’re not getting great a value with this even line. The 49ers get top cornerback Jimmie Ward back from injury this week, but lose starting running back Carlos Hyde on the offensive side of the ball. He’s been by far their most effective offensive weapon this season. I couldn’t be confident in the 49ers, but I am picking them to win their 2nd game of the season here at home against a banged up Tampa Bay team.

San Francisco 49ers 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: San Francisco PK

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

The Bills have bounced back in a big way from an 0-2 start. After losing at home to the Jets on Thursday Night week 2, the Bills fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman, which appeared to be a desperation move at the time. With upcoming games against the Cardinals and Patriots, an 0-4 start and a Rex Ryan firing seemed likely. Instead, the Bills ripped off 3 straight wins, beating the Cardinals and the Patriots and then the Rams last week. Now they host the lowly 49ers with a good shot to improve to 4-2.

The question is whether or not they deserve to be favored by 9 points here. The 49ers have one of the worst rosters in the league, especially without middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman and cornerback Jimmie Ward, but the Bills rank just 23rd in first down percentage and probably shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anyone, especially with stud defensive lineman Marcell Dareus missing his 6th straight game thanks to a combination of suspension and injury. I can’t be confident in the 49ers, but they’re the pick here.

Buffalo Bills 20 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +9

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

After last week’s home loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the perception of the Cardinals right now is that the sky is falling for them. However, they’re a couple plays away from being 3-1, as two of their losses came by a combined 6 points. Their one win, meanwhile, came by 33 points. They still have a +12 point differential and rank 3rd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. Losing quarterback Carson Palmer with a concussion is a big loss, but their defense has been their best unit this season (4th in first down percentage allowed), while the offense has been more pedestrian (11th in first down percentage), largely as a result of some early season struggles by Carson Palmer. Drew Stanton is a capable backup at best and a significant downgrade, but the Cardinals still have a ton of talent around the quarterback position on offense, both at the skill positions and on the offensive line.

The 49ers also come in banged up, losing promising rookie DeForest Buckner (the 7th overall pick) for at least this week and middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman for the year. They join top cornerback Jimmie Ward on the sideline. He’ll miss his 2nd straight game. Those might be their three best defensive players. They do get top pass rusher Aaron Lynch back from a 4-game suspension, but he doesn’t offset the loss of the other guys. The 49ers already have one of the worst offenses in football and now might have one of the worst defenses in football, after it showed promise to start the season. Live will be as easy as possible for Stanton in his spot start, as his offensive supporting cast is far more talented than San Francisco’s defense. It’s a short week, which is tough, but he’s a veteran guy with experience in the system. And in the fact that the Cardinals’ defense figures to shut down Blaine Gabbert and company on a short week and the Cardinals figure to get back in the win column this week.

However, we’re not getting nearly as good of a line as I thought we would. The early line was 6 last week and I figured it would move significantly, with the Cardinals losing at home and Palmer getting knocked out, but it’s still at 3.5. That’s not a small line movement, but 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so I’d be worried about the backdoor cover with Arizona, even in a low scoring game. The 49ers are also in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 78-53 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Cardinals are the pick, but I don’t recommend putting money on it.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

The Cowboys are pretty banged up coming into this one. Not only is top receiver Dez Bryant likely out in this one, they’re also expected to be without left tackle Tyron Smith and left guard La’El Collins. They are expected to get cornerback top Orlando Scandrick back from a 1 week absence on defense, but they remain without 3 projected defensive starters, DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, and Rolando McClain with suspension. Lawrence will return next week, but Gregory and McClain are serving long-term suspensions and their future with the team is in doubt.

Fortunately, they get a very easy opponent this week. The 49ers crushed a weak Rams team week 1, but have been dealt equally big losses in the past two weeks by both the Panthers and the Seahawks. Now they’re without top cornerback Jimmie Ward. The 49ers might not be the worst team in the league (despite two close wins, the Rams actually remain in dead last in rate of moving the chains differential), but they’re up there and the Cowboys only need to win by a field goal or more here to cover as 2.5 point favorites. The 49ers are also in a tough spot because they have to turn around and play Arizona on Thursday Night next week. Teams are 51-93 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, which the 49ers definitely will be next week.

This game is in San Francisco, but the Cowboys’ fanbase tends to travel well so going on the road hasn’t been much of a problem for them in recent years. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.61 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.72 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. Last week was their first road win since week 1 of 2015, but they won on the road in their last road game week 2 against Washington. I like their chances to go to 2-0 on the road here and I have no problem putting money on Dallas as long as this line stays on the right side of the field goal.

Dallas Cowboys 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

The Seahawks’ offense has struggled mightily through the first two games of the season, producing just one touchdown and moving the chains at a 63.93% rate. Only Minnesota, Houston, and Los Angeles are moving the chains at a lower rate than the Seahawks. The Seahawks’ defense remains strong, but this line is 9.5 points so their offense is going to need to perform significantly better for the Seahawks at cover as favorites. So why has their offense been so uncharacteristically bad? Well, they have probably the best receiving corps of any Seahawks team in the Russell Wilson era, but they also have probably the worst offensive line in the NFL and haven’t been able to establish the run like they’re used to. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, has dealt with an ankle sprain that has limited his running ability through 2 games and likely has also limited him as a passer.

Wilson getting healthy would go a long way towards fixing this offense and he figures to be at least somewhat healthier this week. This offense would also be helped by Christine Michael taking the running back job and running with it. He’s only out-carried Thomas Rawls 25-19 through 2 games, but has averaged 5.04 yards per carry to 1.32 yards per carry for Rawls, who is not all the way back from the broken leg that ended his season in 2015. Rawls is not expected to play this week after a setback, so Michael could have a strong game against the 49ers, which would obviously be huge. However, their offensive line is going to remain a problem all season and the 49ers have a promising young defense that has played well thus far this season.

The 49ers are also in a good spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 131-95 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-229 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 325-444 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.79 points per game. I couldn’t put any money on them, but the 49ers should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 17 San Francisco 49ers 9

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +9.5

Confidence: Low

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