49ers

San Francisco 49ers: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 8-2-1

Net points per drive: 0.96 (2nd)

DVOA: 40.1% (1st)

Weighted DVOA: 40.1% (2nd)

Tier 1: Contenders

Studs

LT Joe Staley: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 3 attempts

WR Mario Manningham: Caught 5 passes for 69 yards on 5 attempts on 16 pass snaps, 9.2 YAC per catch

MLB Patrick Willis: 10 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 41 yards on 5 attempts

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 3 assists

ROLB Aldon Smith: 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

LE Ray McDonald: 8 quarterback hurries on 48 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 1 stop

LOLB Ahmad Brooks: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Anthony Davis: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 24 yards on 3 attempts

TE Vernon Davis: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 28 pass snaps, 1 drop

NT Isaac Sopoaga: 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

WR Ted Ginn: 2 punt returns for 13 yards, 1 fumble

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San Francisco 49ers extend MLB NaVorro Bowman

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, 49ers, Offseason Moves 2012

When I grade big money signings, I like to do it by comparing it to other recent deals given to players at the same position. The middle linebacker position is an especially interesting one. In today’s NFL, the position is devalued a little as this is a pass friendly league and middle linebackers don’t have as much to do with the passing game as pass rushers and defensive backs. One of the best middle linebackers in the league is Derrick Johnson and he plays on the 1 win Chiefs.

The first big money deal given to a middle linebacker was a deal in May 2010 given to Patrick Willis, a 5 year, 50 million dollar deal with 29 million guaranteed. Also that offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Karlos Dansby were given sizable contracts. Ryans was given 48 million over 6 years with 21.75 million guaranteed, while Dansby got 43 million over 5 years with 22 million guaranteed. Dansby is still with the Dolphins and while he may be a little bit overpaid, the Dolphins probably don’t regret the move. Ryans, meanwhile, was traded 2 years into his deal, to the Eagles, in a cost saving move by the Texans.

The following offseason, the Jets and Panthers attempted to copy the 49ers, giving comparable deals to David Harris and Jon Beason respectively. Harris got 36 million over 4 years from the Jets and Beason got a 5 year, 50 million dollar deal with 25 million guaranteed. I criticized both of these contracts at the time because neither of those players were on the level of Patrick Willis. They were barely on the level of Ryans and Dansby. Also that offseason, Lawrence Timmons got 50 million over 6 years from the Steelers (undisclosed guaranteed), a deal I liked because, at the time, Timmons was coming off a season in which he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ top rated middle linebacker and he appeared to be a top tier linebacker.

Harris and Beason were both 2nd tier middle linebackers and now not even a year later, both of those contracts look like mistakes. Harris is currently ProFootballFocus’ 51st ranked middle linebacker out of 52, while Beason can’t even get on the field thanks to injuries. Both are candidates to be cut this offseason. Timmons, meanwhile, has been slowed by injuries of his own and while he won’t be cut or anything, he is slightly overpaid right now.

This past offseason, two more comparable deals were handed out, one by the Cardinals to Daryl Washington and one by the Rams to James Laurinaitis. Washington got 32 million over 4 years (guaranteed money was not disclosed) and Laurinaitis got 41.5 million over 5 years with 23.5 million guaranteed. I once again criticized these deals as neither player was on the level of Willis.

I felt all of these players should have been paid comparable to Derrick Johnson, who got a very reasonable 5 year, 34 million dollar extension with 15 million guaranteed in the middle of the 2010 season. I also cited that 3rd tier linebackers like Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively in total money over 5 years this offseason.

Looking back on those deals 3 months later, I stand by what I said about the Laurinaitis deal. Laurinaitis is a talented player and a key part of St. Louis’ surprising young defense, but he he’s getting paid like an elite linebacker when really he’s just an above average player. Washington proved me wrong a little, breaking out into an elite level player this year, his 3rd in the NFL. He’s not Willis, but he’s definitely a Pro Bowler.

However, part of my criticism of that deal was that it was premature and that still stands. Washington had 2 years left on his deal and probably could have been signed to a comparable deal this offseason, even if he became a Pro-Bowl caliber player, given that Willis was only making 10 million per year, with 25 million total guaranteed.

All this being said, it is just possible that the Willis extension was so shrewd that it’s making deals that aren’t so bad look bad by comparison. When the 49ers locked up Willis, they were locking up one of the top-10 defensive players in the NFL (something none of the other linebackers could say) for just about 10 million per year, which comparatively was a bargain. This wasn’t a case of a team speculating that a player would emerge as someone worth this deal in a year (like the Washington deal). This was someone who knew what he was accepting a very reasonable amount of money from an organization who knew what he was.

If we accept that premise, I can’t criticize this deal. NaVorro Bowman is not as good as Patrick Willis, but he still deserves this 5 year, 42.5 million dollar deal with 25.5 million guaranteed (more than Willis). As a player, he’s right now on the level of guys like Daryl Washington, Derrick Johnson (who has proven to be well worth the deal the Chiefs gave him 2 years ago), and the injured Sean Lee, not Patrick Willis, but not 2nd tier guys like DeMeco Ryans, Karlos Dansby, Lawrence Timmons, and the emerging young Bobby Wagner and Brandon Spikes.

He does have two years left on his rookie deal (including this season), but this isn’t a speculative extension like Washington’s was. Bowman arrived last season and has backed it up with his play this season. This move wasn’t as shrewd as the Willis extension, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good move. As long as Willis doesn’t mind that his “little brother” got more guaranteed money than he did (I doubt it), this is a good move.

Grade: A

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints

San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against St. Louis after Alex Smith got hurt, he was also impressive going 11 of 17 for 117 yards, leading the 49ers back from down to tie the game. He’s apparently done enough to impress Jim Harbaugh as it appears he has “Wally Pipped” Smith and will be the starter from here on out.

With Kaepernick in, the 49ers have become a lot of people’s Super Bowl favorite. Alex Smith did a decent job, but there was always a feeling that he was a limiting factor on a team that was loaded with talent elsewhere. I don’t disagree. Smith was the limiting factor on this team. They have the defense, the running game, the offensive line. They rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 3rd in rate of sustaining drives differential.

Kaepernick makes the run even more dangerous because teams have to respect the deep ball now and because they also have to respect Kaepernick’s own running ability. They have an incredibly complex playbook, but Kaepernick allows them to use more of it with his athletic gifts and it didn’t appear he had any issues with the mental part of it either, which was formerly Alex Smith’s biggest advantage.

I’m just not 100% sold on Kaepernick yet. He’s yet to face a team that’s known he was coming. The Rams probably didn’t do a whole lot of preparing for Kaepernick before their game against the 49ers because they didn’t know Smith would get hurt. The Bears might have done more preparation, but remember, Alex Smith wasn’t ruled out until Monday. There was actually a general sense that Smith would start until he was ruled out. The odds makers even posted a line on Saturday Night assuming Smith would start and then had to lower it Monday when they found out Kaepernick was going to start.

The Saints, this week, know he’s coming. Jim Harbaugh did his best to keep it a secret that Kaepernick was his guy, but in this 24/7 news cycle world, that’s almost impossible. The Saints have been preparing for a Kaepernick-lead team all or most of the week and now have a game and a half of NFL game tape of him. They won’t take him lightly, which the Bears and Rams might have, after seeing what he did to a tough Bears defense. This is also Kaepernick’s first road game and playing in New Orleans is no picnic, even if they’ve had better years.

Finally, I just don’t like to overreact to one game too much. The 49ers were 6th in my Power Rankings a week ago, which seemed very reasonable, making them a fringe contender. Kaepernick was great, but it was just one game. I’m not ready to make them a Super Bowl favorite after 1 week, though I acknowledge they could potentially be very dangerous and the first team I’m really, really sold on if Kaepernick keeps it up and continues to play at a high level.

Even though I don’t like to overreact to one game and I’m not 100% sold on Kaepernick, I still like the 49ers this week and there are 4 reasons why what I mentioned early doesn’t really matter. First, the Saints’ defense is atrocious. Kaepernick might not be as good as he looked on Monday Night, but that probably wouldn’t even matter. No team allows more yards per play than they do and only the Titans allow a higher rate of sustaining drives (what percentage of sets of downs you convert for another 1st or a score).

Because of this, we’re getting good line value with the 49ers, which is the 2nd reason I like the 49ers. The yards per play differential method of computing real line gives us a real line of San Francisco -8.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of San Francisco -6. This line is at just -1, which is actually down from -2.5, where it was a week ago. As good as the 49ers looked on Monday Night, this line has still shifted in favor of New Orleans in the past week, because they blew out crappy Oakland.

Even with the line movement, the public is still on New Orleans, which is the third reason I like the 49ers. The odds makers have had a rough 3 weeks and are due for a big week. Betting on a publicly backed team this week is risky this week, especially a publicly backed dog. Public dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run.

The 49ers may be a bit overrated based off of one game of Kaepernick right now, but the Saints are incredibly overrated and overvalued by the public. The Saints are very, very good in the red zone converting for a touchdown 71% of the time, best in the league and even defensively they aren’t terrible in the red zone (53%, 17th in the league), so that takes away some of the line value, since neither method really puts much emphasis on red zone efficiency. However, it’s not like the 49ers are a bad red zone team, converting 59% of the time, 9th in the league, and allowing their opponents to convert 53% of the time, 16th in the league. We are major getting line value with the 49ers any way you look at it.

The 4th reason is that they’re in a very strong spot coming off a Monday Night Football blowout. Excluding teams coming off a bye, teams are 27-11 ATS since 2002 after a Monday Night Football win by 21 more and the 49ers won by 25. I’m not 100% sold on Kaepernick, but the 49ers have serious line value on their side, a powerful trend on their side, and they are a favorite not backed by the public. I would have taken them even if it were Smith starting this one, though maybe for fewer units. Still, for that reason, I’m going to take them for a significant play even in New Orleans, where Drew Brees is 5-1 ATS as a dog.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

Sharps lean: NO 10 SF 3

Final update: Sharps do like New Orleans, but I disagree. That 27-11 ATS trend is pretty powerful and the Saints are overrated right now.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -1 (-110) 3 units

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 6 (+4)

The 49ers would be #1 in these Power Rankings if I knew, first that Colin Kaepernick was going to be their starter for the rest of the season and second that his performance on Monday Night was not a fluke. We’ll know the answer to both of those questions in the next few weeks and it’s certainly an interesting situation. They were 6th last week and they’d probably still be there if I knew Smith was going to continue to start. Smith is a nice quarterback in that system, but I’ve never felt he could lead them to a Super Bowl.

If Kaepernick is for real, they absolutely can. They have the defense, the running game, the offensive line. They rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 3rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. Kaepernick makes the run even more dangerous because teams have to respect the deep ball now and because they also have to respect Kaepernick’s own running ability. They have an incredibly complex playbook, but Kaepernick allows them to use more of it with his athletic gifts and it didn’t appear he had any issues with the mental part of it either, which was formerly Alex Smith’s biggest advantage.

I’m not saying bench Smith. That could be potentially disastrous for team morale and chemistry, so it’s not advisable to do it unless you know Kaepernick is for real, but there’s nothing wrong with giving Smith a couple more games to “rest up,” see what the kid has, and then bench Smith in 2 weeks or so when you’re sure Kaepernick is the better option. If he is, this is an incredibly dangerous team with no flaws that can absolutely win the Super Bowl. If not, they go back to Smith and remain a fringe contender.

Studs

QB Colin Kaepernick: 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 2 drops, 130.0 adjusted QB rating pressured on 9 of 26 drop backs (1 sack, 2 scrambles, 3 of 6, 1 drop, 2 throw aways), rushed for 10 yards on 4 attempts

RG Alex Boone: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

TE Vernon Davis: Caught 6 passes for 83 yards on 8 attempts on 24 pass block snaps, 2.7 YAC per catch

ROLB Aldon Smith: 6 sacks and 2 quarterback hits on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 5 stops

CB Tarell Brown: Allowed 5 catches for 37 yards on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Patrick Willis: 3 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 11 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections

MLB Navorro Bowman: 11 solo tackles, 6 stops, allowed 4 catches for 19 yards on 4 attempts

RE Justin Smith: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

None

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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bears

Chicago Bears (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

I can’t make a final pick on this one because there are too many unknowns with injuries and with the line in general (it’s not yet posted). However, I can do a reasonable preview based on what we do know. Here’s what we know. We know Jay Cutler has been ruled out and will not play for the Bears. Instead, Jason Campbell will start in his absence. We know Alex Smith has been cleared to practice and is expected to be cleared to play before Monday Night so he’s expected to start for the 49ers.

We know if all things were normal, this line would be around San Francisco -5 because that’s what it was at last week and both teams have had disappointing games since. Given all that, assuming Cutler doesn’t play, Smith plays, and the line moves the appropriate amount to compensate, I like the Bears. I would have taken them in normal circumstances at -5. I can’t understand Chicago, who leads the league in points differential, being more than 3 point road dogs against anyone while fully healthy. Even with Cutler out, this should be a close game and we can expect the line to be somewhere around -7 at least, so the points are very tempting.

Campbell is a decent quarterback and one of the better backups in the league. He led the Raiders to an 11-7 record in games he played over a 2 year stretch. In the games he missed, the Raiders went 5-9, even though Carson Palmer made 9 of those starts. This year, they are 3-6 without him and with Palmer. He didn’t look great against Houston, but then again neither did Cutler. Houston has an incredible defense. San Francisco does too, so he’s hardly going to put up big points, but he will at least have a week of starters reps under his belt and he won’t need to put up big points to cover.

The Bears run the ball, play great defense, and have great special teams and even with Alex Smith healthy, the 49ers won’t be doing a whole lot of scoring either. Smith is obviously a better quarterback than Campbell, but it’s not such a lopsided comparison that the 49ers warrant being possibly touchdown favorites or more in a game where everything else seems really even. Good teams tend to cover without their starting quarterback, especially in their first game without him because they’re overlooked, undervalued, and angry. The Bears were unable to do that last year, going 1-5 without Cutler, but this year will be different for several reasons.

One, when Cutler went down last year, it was known almost immediately to be season ending. The Bears pretty much quit after he went down. This time, he’ll probably only miss this game, so they will have more of a “holding down the fort for Cutler” mentality rather than “Cutler’s out, we’re fucked” mentality. Two, Jason Campbell is so much more competent than Caleb Hanie and eventually Josh McCown, the two starting quarterbacks who combined to make those 6 starts last year. Three, their supporting cast is better. They’ve added Brandon Marshall. They have returned Matt Forte (remember, he got hurt at the same time Cutler did last year). They’re also allowing about a touchdown less per game defensively than last year.

Both teams are in good spots this week after disappointing performances last week. Lovie Smith, since taking over as Bears’ Head Coach, is 6-3 ATS as dogs before being favorites. Dogs before being favorites are 95-50 ATS since 2011 and Chicago hosts Minnesota next week, a game they’ll be favored in even if Cutler can’t return for that one.

The 49ers, meanwhile, had a tie game last week, which makes things a little tougher. However, teams are 13-6 ATS off of overtime as double digit favorites, regardless of the outcome. Almost losing, or in the 49ers’ case, not winning, seems to send the same sort of wake up call to a team as actually losing. Further illustrating that, teams are 32-24 ATS off a win of 3 or fewer as double digit favorites and 27-18 ATS off a loss as double digit favorites.

Lose or barely win, it’s a wakeup call. Jim Harbaugh, like all great coaches, is excellent off a loss, going 5-1 ATS. In fact, off a mere ATS loss, he’s 6-1 ATS. It is worth noting that teams are 3-7 ATS off a tie, though it is a small sample size. The 49ers may be tired after playing 75 minutes last week, but this one is on Monday Night, so maybe not.

At the end of the day though, I like the Bears for a significant play as long as Cutler doesn’t play and this line is 6 or higher (6 is a key number). Even without Cutler, the Bears should be able to keep this close. They have a great supporting cast and will give 110% to hold down the fort in Cutler’s absence. I also think they have a good chance to win if history is any indication.

Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. Chicago is the only one who is even close right now and they pretty much need this win to do so given that Atlanta is 8-1 and has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. In a game that could decide the #2 seed in the NFC, I like the Bears to win, but I’m more confident they’ll cover, as long as the spread is where I think it will be. Minus 6-7 will be 3 units and anything above 7 will be 4 or 5 units. I’ll post a final pick once the line is posted.

Public lean: Chicago (50% range)

Sharps lean: SF 15 CHI 4

Final update: The sharps like San Francisco, but keep in mind, the LV Hilton line is -4. It’s at -7 in the few online sportsbooks its up at. I’ll make this pick assuming -7 just to get it out of the way and make any changes tonight if I need to. It’s going to be 3 units on the Bears. 7 is way too many points. The Bears will play 110% to compensate for Cutler and make this a grind it out game. I have a tough time seeing either team win by more than 7 barring several defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Final update Part 2: Alex Smith was surprising ruled out Monday Morning and even though this line opened on Sunday at -7 expecting Smith to play, it plummeted down to -3.5 today. I’m very glad I was able to get Chicago +7 now, but if you couldn’t, I still like Chicago +3.5, but only for 2 units. There’s no way Smith is worth 3.5 points. I obviously still like the money line, even though it’s smaller now.

Chicago Bears 16 San Francisco 49ers 13 Upset Pick +240

Pick against spread: Chicago +7 (-110) 3 units

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 6 (+0)

Record: 6-2-1

Under St. Louis’ write up, I made a sarcastic comment about ties. Now it’s time for a full, serious rant. The NFL’s overtime rules are ridiculous. I love that they changed it so you can’t win with a field goal on your opening drive, but they need to make a change so there are no more ties. No one wins in a tie. Both teams lose. Teams bust their ass for 75 minutes playing the one of the most physically demanding sports in America and the net result is zero. It’s like the game didn’t even happen. It’s soccer. This is not Europe! America has winners and losers! We should not have ties!!!

The NFL should just adopt college football’s overtime rules. That’s the one thing the NCAA does so much better than the NFL (that and pass interference being 15 yards instead of a spot foul). At the very least, they should do some kind of sudden death NHL style shoot out with field goal kickers. I know having an NFL game decided by kickers is less than ideal, but it does happen all the time (if Akers had hit from 41, this game would have been decided by a field goal kicker). Plus, at least we’d have a winner.

Studs

LOLB Ahmad Brooks: 5 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 3 batted passes, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

ROLB Aldon Smith: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

Duds

LG Mike Iupati: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

RG Adam Boone: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 3 attempts

RT Anthony Davis: Allowed 1 sack and 6 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

TE Vernon Davis: Caught 4 passes for 30 yards on 5 attempts on 32 pass block snaps, 0.3 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps

WR Kyle Williams: Caught 2 passes for 24 yards on 3 attempts on 19 pass block snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles

CB Carlos Rogers: Allowed 9 catches for 67 yards on 9 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

WR Ted Ginn: 5 kickoff returns for 118 yards, 1 fumble, 2 punt returns for 23 yards

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St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to always take the home team. Since 2007, the NFC West is 104-77 in general at home and they have not only the best ATS winning percentage of any division in football in that time period, they also have the winning home/road winning ATS percentage disparity of any division in football in that time period.

Because of that, it means sense that went they meet for divisional matchups, the home team generally wins and that’s in fact the case. In divisional matchups, the home team is 38-25 ATS since 2007, including 23-12 ATS as home favorites and 7-1 ATS as double digit favorites, which the 49ers are here. The 49ers are also in a good spot as double digit home favorites off of a bye. Teams are 15-7 ATS in this spot since 2002.

The Rams, however, are in a good spot too as double digit divisional dogs are 47-27 ATS before being favorites, including 38-16 ATS before being non-divisional favorites. The Rams host the Jets next weekend and are expected to be favored at home. The Rams are coming off a 45-7 loss to the Patriots. Dogs are 77-49 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 28+ or more as a dog. As double digit dogs, those teams are 17-8 ATS. I know they’re coming off a bye, but dogs coming off a loss of 28+ and a bye are 9-4 ATS as dogs since 1989. Meanwhile, there’s a pretty heavy public lean on San Francisco.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

We’re also getting some line value with the Rams. Both the rate of sustaining drives differential metric and yards per play differential metric says this line should be -13.5. This line is -11.5. That might seem like the complete opposite of line value for the Rams, but remember their improving injury situation. Danny Amendola and Rodger Saffold are both question, but expected to play.

Amendola is by far Bradford’s best receiver. Before he got hurt, he was accounting for close to 40% of their receiving yardage by himself. It’s no coincidence that the Rams, 4-1 ATS with him, went 1-2 ATS without him and didn’t win a single game, going from 3-2 to 3-5. Even in the game he got hurt, against Arizona, his absence was noticeable. After he left, Bradford completed just 2 of his final 9 passes. They still won because they had a lead when he got hurt and because Arizona sucks, but they really missed him in his 3 ½ game absence.

Saffold, meanwhile, is his left tackle and while he’s been without him for most of the year and had some success without him, he’s still a significant upgrade over the guys they’ve been trotting out to play left tackle. He’ll help an offensive line that has ranked 29th in pass block efficiency through 8 games this season. Bradford has done a good job of playing well in spite of injuries all around, something he didn’t do last year and something you can attribute to better coaching and a higher level of maturity, but getting Amendola and Saffold is only going to help him.

He should appear noticeably improved with those 2 healthy. Maybe not this week because San Francisco’s defense is so good, but he should still be able to cover the 11.5, when otherwise I would take the 49ers. It’s not a big play or anything though. I also like the under in this one. The under is 40-23 since 2007 in NFC West divisional games. Both of these teams have a higher ranked defense than offense and in their combined 16 games, the under is 10-5-1 this year.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean: STL 10 SF 6

Final update: No change.

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis +11.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 38.5 (-110) 1 unit

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 6 (-1)

Record: 6-2

Alex Smith was 18 of 19 on Monday Night against the Cardinals, one completion shy of setting the all-time record for completion percentage in a single game. He did set the single game for most pass attempts with only 1 incompletion and that incompletion was actually a drop. The knock on him, however, is that he settled for mostly short stuff, completing just 10 passes longer than 3 yards through the air and actually averaging just 4.9 yards per completion through the air, getting a lot of his yardage after the catch against an Arizona defense that couldn’t tackle. He also looked 4 sacks on his 6 pressured snaps, sacks that even he admits he should have thrown away and taken the incompletion. This kind of stuff might fly against Arizona, but I still don’t trust him to lead them deep into the playoffs.

Studs

QB Alex Smith: 18 of 19 for 232 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 drop, 130.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 23 drop backs (4 sacks, 2 of 2)

LT Joe Staley: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 3 attempts

RT Anthony Davis: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 6 attempts

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 5 passes for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts on 15 pass snaps, 12.4 YAC per catch

CB Tarell Brown: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 10 attempts, 5 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle

CB Chris Culliver: Allowed 3 catches for 21 yards on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflection, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles

MLB Patrick Willis: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 4 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection

ROLB Aldon Smith: 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 4 catches for 28 yards on 6 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

P Andy Lee: 5 punts for 244 yards, 2 inside 20, 4 returns for 15 yards, 45.8 net yards per punt

Duds

MLB NaVorro Bowman: 1 missed tackle, 1 stop, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 41 yards on 3 attempts

LE Ray McDonald: 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Justin Smith: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)

In NFC West matchups, the rule of thumb is to pick the home team. Since 2007, no other division comes close to covering at home at a rate as high as the NFC West, which is 103-74 ATS at in that time period. San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, and Arizona are all teams that are good at home and bad on the road generally. Given that, it makes sense that inside the division, the home team generally covers in NFC West divisional contests and that’s exactly what happens.

In that same time period, the home team in an NFC West divisional matchup covers at a record of 38-24 ATS. As well as the 49ers played last year, they still managed to go 1-2 ATS on the road in the division, 0-2-1 ATS depending on the lines (some had Seattle +2 rather than +1.5). They lost straight up in Arizona, beat St. Louis by just a touchdown, and beat Seattle by just 2, all of which were games they were favored in. There’s not a lot of data on this type of situation, but home dogs of 7+ in the NFC West have covered 2 of the 3 instances in that time period. Home dogs of 7+ cover at a high rate anyway, regardless, going 99-78 ATS since 2002.

Besides, the Cardinals tend to play a lot of close games anyway. This makes sense because they have a good defense, as much as their offense struggles. Dating back to last year, they’ve only lost 4 games by more than 7, out of 11 total losses, including only once at home, 32-20 to the Steelers. This week’s game is even more likely to be close because the 49ers are a more defensive oriented team as well. Some places have this line at 6.5 (-110), but pay extra for the +7 if you can because you might need it. +7 is at -120 right now.

Besides, this spread seems a little weird. Last week, San Francisco was anywhere from -7 to -8.5 at home for Seattle and they didn’t even cover, winning by just 7. Now they’re -7 in Arizona? Arizona beat Seattle and both teams have the same record. I’ll agree that Seattle is the better team right now, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that, especially considering the home/road disparity in NFC divisional games.

Meanwhile, Arizona was +7 in Minnesota and pushed and now they’re +7 at home for San Francisco? Minnesota beat San Francisco and has the same record as them. Once again, I’ll agree the 49ers are the better team, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that. Neither do the measures for calculating line value either. The yards per play differential method gives us a line of San Francisco -9.5 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives of a line of San Francisco -3. If you average those two out, you get lower than -7 and that’s not even taking into account that Alex Smith isn’t playing well right now and that they’re unlikely to continue rushing for 5.9 YPC, because no one does that. That’s the main reason behind their #1 ranking in yards per play.

Plus, just look at the spread last year. San Francisco was 10-2 and Arizona was 5-7 and the spread was just 3 and the Cardinals still covered and won. The 49ers aren’t as good of a team as they were last year because they aren’t winning the turnover battle like they were last year. This line is ridiculous. Normally I’d think this line was too good to be true, but the public likes San Francisco and the line still isn’t moving.

I know I mentioned early this week that I think favorites will have a good week this week, in order to help bring the dogs/favorites record eventually to within 10 games of .500, which it’s been in each of the last 10 years at least (right now it’s at 63-39 in favor of dogs). That doesn’t mean dogs should not be bet at all. It’s perfectly fine to take a dog if the favorite is publicly backed like the 49ers are this week. I really like Arizona this week. I also like the under this week. This should be a close, low scoring game between two of the top-4 scoring defenses in the league. Besides, the under hits at a record of 78-46 in NFC West divisional games since 2007.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARZ 12 SF 6

Final update: Line in Las Vegas Hilton is 6.5, but still the lean is on Arizona. I really like Arizona at +7. Pay extra for the extra half point if you can. If you can’t, it’s a smaller play.

San Francisco 49ers 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +7 (-120) 4 units

Total: Under 38 (-110) 1 unit

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