49ers

San Francisco 49ers: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 13 (+4)

Record: 2-0

I still don’t think this team is much of a Super Bowl threat because eventually the turnover differentials will…blah blah blah regression I’m done repeating myself. Let’s focus on something positive, namely this amazing defense. This was Jim Harbaugh’s first full offseason with this team and many people expected an improved offense because of it. I don’t think anyone really expected an improved defense, but that’s what they got.

In the opener, they shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, holding them to 324 total yards and then last week they shut down Matt Stafford and the Lions, holding them to 296 total yards. Those were two top-5 offenses last year. It’s very interesting to look at exact how they did so. In the opener against Green Bay, they spent most of the game in a dime package, using 6 defensive backs on 55 of 72 snaps and 5 defensive backs on 65 of 72. That left, for the most part, 5 men in the box.

Against Detroit, they did a similar thing, running nickel on 57 of 65 snaps and leaving, for the most part, 6 men in the box. What’s amazing is that they’ve still managed to allow just 3.2 YPC in those 2 games. I know they haven’t played good running teams, but that’s good coaching on the part of Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to make significant schematic adjustments to the point where you run your base 3-4 defense on 15 of 137 plays in your first 2 games and shut down two of the best offenses in the leagues.

It’s also a testament to the versatility of the players, namely linebackers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. They’re the reason why they’re able to run primarily sub packages and still stuff the run. Both are good enough in coverage to stay in the game in sub packages and both are good enough against the run to help hold opponents to 3.2 yards per carry, despite the defense dropping 5 or 6 in coverage and sending 4 men on a pass rush.

The only area this defense has been weak is pass rush, as they rank just 31st in pass rush efficiency. That’s really interesting because it’s not a schematic thing. They’re rushing at least 4 on almost every play, but they’re still not getting to the quarterback (5 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback hurries). It’ll be interesting to see if that continues and it’ll also be interesting to see if the coaches choose to continue using a sub package as their base package going forward. This week, they face Minnesota, who are probably more of a threat to run than to pass, but if you can still stuff the run in a sub package, why not continue to use it?

Before the season I said 49ers takeaways would go down and turnovers would go up. I’ve been half right, only 2 takeaways, but still just 1 turnover. Given that they’re not as reliant on takeaways this year, that’s why I say this is an improved defense. Offensively, however, they will eventually start to turn the ball over more. They also haven’t played a decent secondary playing well yet and everyone turns it over eventually. Turnover differentials are so much more inconsistent on a week to week basis than yards per play and the 49ers rank just 8th in yards per play differential, with a middle of the pack 5.9 yards per play gained.

Can you win a Super Bowl with a middle of the pack offense and a great defense? History says no. I say no, but I’ve been wrong before. The other thing that will eventually happen for this team is injuries. They’ve had next to none over the last two years and their depth is unproven. Right now, the 49ers are probably the best team in football. However, these Power Rankings are a little different in that I’m not really interested in who is best now. I rank teams by how I see them finishing in terms of projected win-loss record, where I think they’ll advance in the playoffs, and likelihood to win the Super Bowl.

The other concern for the 49ers should be Frank Gore. He’s averaging 6.1 YPC this year, but he averaged 4.9 in first 8 games last year, before averaging 3.5 YPC in final 8. That coincided with a 4.3 point decrease in points per game. Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James can help take the load off of him if that time comes, but it’ll be up to the coaching staff to make the adjustment and up to Gore to accept the adjustment.

Studs

LT Joe Staley: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 4 carries

QB Alex Smith: 20 of 31 for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 5 drops, 103.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 35 drop backs (3 sacks 2 of 4, 1 throw away)

C Jonathan Goodwin: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 6 carries

LG Mike Iupati: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 2 carries

RG Alex Boone: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 2 carries

TE Vernon Davis: 5 catches for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts on 27 pass plays, 5.4 YAC per catch

MLB NaVorro Bowman: Allowed 3 catches for 20 yards on 6 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Aldon Smith: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 34 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

FS Dashon Goldson: Was not thrown on, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

None

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Lions expect to be without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Bill Bentley this week

stevenlourie 49ers, News

One of the big questions of the 2012 season is can Alex Smith prove he’s a true franchise quarterback, now that the 49ers have gotten him some weapons and now that he’s had a full offseason in Harbaugh’s scheme. Jim Harbaugh did a great job of turning him from lost cause to game manager last season, but history shows that teams can’t win on a consistent basis following the good defense, good running game, don’t make mistakes model (see pre-Cutler Bears or pre-Flacco Ravens). You can have a good year or even a great year, but it’s very tough to maintain consistent year to year success in the NFL without a true franchise quarterback.

Smith certainly looked like a franchise quarterback in the opener, completing 20 of 26 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading the 49ers to an upset victory over the Packers in Lambeau 30-22. However, the Packers were blowing coverages left and right so it’s tough to get a conclusive answer from that game. It’ll probably be tough to get a conclusive answer from this week’s game either as the 49ers head home to take on the Lions and their incredibly banged up secondary.

Already with a weak secondary heading into the season, a big part of the reason for their 23rd ranked scoring defense last year, the Lions have been plagued by injuries in that area in which they were already weakest. Top cornerback Chris Houston and starting safety Louis Delmas both missed the opener and are expected to miss this week as well, very bad news since those were the Lions’ only two decent defensive backs. Without those two, the Lions had trouble stopping Sam Bradford last week, who completed 17 of 25 for 198 yards and a touchdown in a near Rams victory in Detroit.

Now the Lions expect to be without another defensive back, 3rd round rookie Bill Bentley, this week. Bentley was a starter last week in place of the injured Houston. Without Bentley, the Lions’ top 3 cornerbacks this week will be Jacob Lacey, who struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year, Drayton Florence, who was a final cut of the Broncos’ roughly 2 weeks ago, and Jonte Green, a 6th round rookie. At safety, they will start two career journeyman backups, Erik Coleman and John Wendling. Their pass rush is good, but expect Alex Smith to find life very easy through the air once again this week, as long as they can keep him protected again, something they did a good job of against Green Bay, as he was pressured on just 7 of 33 drop backs.

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Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Lions

Detroit Lions (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

Both of these teams were in my overrated group heading into the season. The idea with the overrated/underrated teams was to bet the underrated teams and against the overrated teams until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. Detroit didn’t prove me wrong as they barely eked out a come from behind win at home against the Rams, helping me nail my pick of the week, but the 49ers proved me wrong last week, pulling the upset victory in Green Bay. In fact, of all of my preseason predictions, that may be the one I end up being most wrong on. This doesn’t bother me too much, as I was 5-2 last week on games involved underrated or overrated teams, but it does force me to make adjustments.

I don’t think it’s really fair to say that the 49ers are on overrated team anymore, but it is fair to say that about the Lions. In order to improve on their win total, the Lions would have to improve their win total for the 4th straight season. In the up and down NFL, that rarely happens. Their running back depth chart is basically the same as their inactive list. They finished last season 5-7, including playoffs. They had a distraction filled offseason and they needed an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 points or more to even win 10 games last year, because of how bad their defense is. It’s not any better this season and if the offense doesn’t bail them out at a record rate again, they could regress.

There’s no way they deserve to be just 7 point underdogs in San Francisco. That suggests that San Francisco is just 4 points better than the Lions, which I don’t think is true. The one thing that I acknowledged could completely derail my 49ers prediction would be Alex Smith improbably breaking out as a true franchise quarterback at age 28, with the addition of new weapons and a full offseason in Jim Harbaugh’s scheme. That’s because the premise behind calling the 49ers an overrated team was largely based on my observation that teams cannot consistently win in the NFL without a true franchise quarterback. You can have a good year, or even a great year, but it’s hard to be consistent on a year to year basis purely on running the football, playing good defense, and winning the turnover battle (See Baltimore pre-Flacco and Chicago pre-Cutler).

It’s still inconclusive whether or not Smith is a true franchise quarterback, but one thing is for sure, the Packers made him look like one, blowing coverages left and right, failing to stop the run, and only pressuring him on 7 of 33 drop backs. It’ll still be inconclusive whether or not Smith is a true franchise quarterback after this one because the Lions also have a terrible defense, ranking 23rd in scoring last year.

They were the league’s 28th ranked run defense in 2011, so despite a strong showing in run defense in the opener, I don’t expect them to be able to contain the 49ers’ two headed attack of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. This will make life very easy for Smith, who will also be facing a Lions’ pass defense that made Sam Bradford look pretty good in the opener (17 of 25 for 198 yards and a score).

They’ll probably be able to get more pressure on Smith than the Packers did, but their secondary is even worse, even with Chris Houston returning from injury. They’ll still be without Louis Delmas and now rookie Bill Bentley with injury, leaving Jacob Lacey, who struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year, to start opposite Houston. Meanwhile, Drayton Florence, who was recently a final cut of the Broncos, will man the slot. With Delmas out, veteran journeyman Erik Coleman will start next to incumbent 2011 starter Amari Spievey, who really struggled last year. The 49ers should be able to move the ball.

Because of that and their ball control offense, they should be able to keep Matt Stafford and company on the sidelines for the majority of the game, like they did to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Lions are like a poor man’s version of the Packers, assuming the Packers’ defense doesn’t improve. The 49ers beat the Packers in Lambeau last week, so they should be able to beat the Lions at home. The 49ers won’t stop Stafford and this passing game, like they didn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game, but they’ll limit them and dominate the other areas of the game, much like last week. Also like last week, they should be able to put a complete halt on a Lions running game that isn’t very good to begin with, much like the Packers’.

I’m going with the 49ers here as 7 point favorites in a matchup of two of my preseason overrated teams. The 49ers looked much, much better than the Lions did last week and they match up very well with the one dimensional Lions. The reason this isn’t a big bet is twofold. For one, the 49ers don’t have the type of offense built to blow people out, while the Lions have the type of offense that can mount a late backdoor cover drive against a sizeable spread. The 2nd reason is “handshake gate.” Jim Schwartz is kind of crazy and took Harbaugh’s rough handshake very personally after these two teams met last year. If he can somehow use that as motivation for his team, they’ll have the motivation edge in this one.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

San Francisco 49ers 27 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7 (-110) 1 unit

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San Francisco 49ers: 2012 Week 2 Power Ranking (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 19 (+6)

Record: 1-0

This is the 2nd straight controversial ranking. I had the 49ers missing the playoffs before the season and the Rams making it. I don’t want to repeat myself with the reason, but basically it was because the Rams would have better injury luck, better coaching, and the addition of guys through free agency, while the 49ers would struggle to maintain their +28 turnover differential and would have worse luck defensively, where they suffered almost no injuries and had 9 or 10 guys have breakout years.

I’ve watched enough seasons to know you can’t have consistent success without a franchise quarterback. You can have one good year or one great year, but even the best defensive teams struggle to consistently have good seasons without a true franchise quarterback. The best example I can think of is the Ravens from the pre Flacco-Harbaugh days (12 wins, 10 wins, 7 wins, 10 wins, 9 wins, 6 wins, 13 wins, 5 wins).

So what could derail that whole prediction? If Alex Smith becomes a franchise quarterback. If a full offseason in Jim Harbaugh’s system and new receiving threats improbably turns Alex Smith into to a franchise quarterback at age 28. He certainly looked the part against Green Bay, but Green Bay also blew numerous coverages, couldn’t get any pressure, couldn’t stop the run, and made life very easy for him.

The Packers also had a very high turnover differential last season. I thought they’d be fine defensively because of the addition of 3 key contributors through the draft and bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams, but if that’s not the case, the Packers figure to have one of the worst defenses in the league this year (even worse than last year, because they probably won’t be able to force as many turnovers) and Alex Smith’s performance makes perfect sense.

I’m putting the 49ers here with the acknowledgement that I could be proven wrong in the next few weeks and have to put the 49ers in the top-5 or higher. I’d rather be wrong than flip flop because I think I’m wrong and find out eventually that I was right in the first place. At the end of the day, I believe there’s only so much you can learn week 1. It’s for that reason, along with my out there beginning of the season predictions (understanding this is a parity league and if you predict the same thing as last year, you can’t possibly be right) that my week 2 power rankings often confuse people every year. The 49ers had an impressive win and I was surprised and my confident pick of the Packers was wrong. This is the biggest jump a single team makes this week for that reason.

Studs

QB Alex Smith: 20 of 26 for 211 yards, 2 touchdowns, throw away, 1 drop, 108.8 adjusted QB rating, 7 pressured dropbacks

RG Alex Boone: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures allowed on 34 pass block plays, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 carries

C Jonathan Goodwin: 1 quarterback pressures allowed on 34 pass block plays, run blocked for 27 yards on 5 carries

RB Frank Gore: 112 yards (84 after contact) and a touchdown on 16 carries, 4 broken tackles, 1 catch for 1 yard on 1 target

WR Michael Crabtree: 7 catches for 76 yards on 8 targets on 29 pass plays, 6.6 YAC per catch

TE Vernon Davis: 3 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets on 31 pass plays, run blocked for 35 yards on 4 carries

MLB Navarro Bowman: 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops on 15 run plays, allowed 5 catches for 42 yards on 8 targets, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection

K David Akers: 6 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 70.8 yards per kickoff, 21.3 average start distance, 3/3 FG (40, 43, 63)

Duds

LT Joe Staley: Allowed 3 sacks on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 carries

CB Perrish Cox: Allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles and 1 stop on 11 run plays, 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles, 1 stop on 17 run plays

SS Donte Whitner: Allowed 3 catches for 19 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 missed tackles, 1 stop on 19 run plays

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, Packers

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Anyone who has been following the website during the offseason knows I’m not particularly optimistic about the 2012 49ers. I have them as my team that goes from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs (there’s one every season) and my team that sees a win decrease of 6+ games (also one every season). They had 10 turnovers last year, an NFL record. Unfortunately, turnovers and takeaways are fairly inconsistent on a yearly basis. Teams that have fewer than 20 turnovers win, on average, 2.69 fewer games the next season. Those teams average 26.3 turnovers per year the following year. Meanwhile, teams that have 35 or more turnovers average 28.3 turnovers the following year.

The same is true for takeaways. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers and 2 fewer wins in their next season. The 49ers forced 38, for a turnover differential of +28, best in the league over the past decade. Teams with differential of +15 or higher have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. Teams with differentials of +15 or higher have a differential of, on average, +2.1 the following season. Teams with differentials of -15 or lower have a differential of +1.4 the following season. Teams with 20 takeaways or less average 25.8 takeaways the following season, while teams with 35 or more average 27.5 the following season.

Meanwhile, the 49ers also improved 7 games last year and teams that do that win, on average, 4.5 fewer games the next season. Along the same lines, since 2003, of the 16 teams who have gone from out of the playoffs to a 1st round bye (like the 49ers did last year), 7 did the opposite thing the following season, and those teams won an average of 3.2 fewer games the following season. The 49ers also had tremendous luck with injuries last year, only losing Patrick Willis for 3 games. Defensively, they had 9 or 10 of 11 starters have career years. If guys get hurt at a more normal rate this year and say 5 of 10 guys regress slightly, it’ll be noticeable on the field and in the win total.

On top of that, I’ve followed the NFL long enough to know that teams without legitimate franchise quarterbacks don’t have staying power. You can have a good season or even a great season one year when everything else goes right, but you’ll never have the consistent success of the teams with elite quarterbacks. The 49ers are either a one year wonder or a team that’s going to take a step back this year. I lean towards the latter because I really respect Jim Harbaugh and Trent Baalke but they have to do something about the quarterback position eventually and, either way, they’ll regress this season.

The Packers also had more than 35 takeaways, fewer than 20 turnovers, and a turnover differential of higher than +15. Here’s why it won’t affect them as much. Defensively, they may have fewer turnovers, but they added 3 talented rookie defensive players in the first 2 rounds of the draft, and could get potential bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams, key players on a Packers defense that allowed the 2nd fewest points in the league in 2010, when they went to the Super Bowl.

Offensively, they have an elite franchise quarterback. Teams with elite franchise quarterbacks tend to be more immune from big shifts in turnover numbers. Peyton Manning and the Colts had 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times, while Tom Brady and the Patriots had 20 or fewer 3 times. Of those 8 combined times, 5 times the team had 20 or fewer turnovers the following season. Of the 3 times that didn’t happen, one is yet to be determined, because the Patriots did it last year, one was the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady for the season week 1, and the other was the 2008 Colts, who had a mere 21. Aaron Rodgers may throw more turnovers than the mere 6 he threw last year, but if he does, it’ll probably be something along the lines of the 11 he threw in 2010 or the 13 Tom Brady threw last year after throwing just 4 in 2010. The 49ers don’t have that luxury at quarterback.

Yes, the Packers may regress a little bit, but you can regress 2 or 3 games when you win 15 games and still be fine. Teams that improve 5 games in a season regress about 2.4 games the following season. The Packers don’t have every warning flag going off saying “Major regression!!! Major regression!!!” like the 49ers. They’ll be a 12 or 13 win team, which is what they’re averaged over the last 3 years (12.0) and compete for another Super Bowl. They’re a much better team than the 49ers, but this line (-5) doesn’t suggest it. What you see below are some Vegas odds from weeks 1-3 last season.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco

Chicago (+7) at New Orleans

Houston (-3) at Miami

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

San Diego (+7) at New England

St. Louis (+4.5) at NY Giants

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta

San Francisco (+3) at Cincinnati

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago

Those look comical to us now, but they were once legitimate lines. If you had predicted beforehand that teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and Cincinnati would exceed expectations and teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia would do the opposite, that’s 15 wins (and one push) for you in 3 weeks easily. I identified San Francisco as an overrated team and will be betting against them pretty heavily until they stop being overrated or prove me wrong.

Even if the 49ers prove everything I wrote above wrong, I still like the Packers in this situation. If these two teams faced off last year, when everything was going right for the 49ers, I would have picked the Packers to win and cover against this line. San Francisco barely beat New Orleans at home. Green Bay is a superior and similar style team compared to New Orleans and this game is in Green Bay. As good as the 49ers’ defense is, the Saints still hung 32 points on them in San Francisco.

In fact, you look at how they did against elite quarterbacks in general (not counting Ben Roethlisberger because he was hurt), they allowed 316 and 311 yards to Eli Manning, 462 yards to Drew Brees, and, if you want to count them, 293 yards to Matt Stafford and 345 yards to Tony Romo (that game went into overtime, but Romo also missed time in the game with bruised ribs, so that evens it out). The 49ers have an amazing run defense, but their pass defense can be thrown on. They ranked a solid, but not elite 10th against the pass last year, allowing 6.9 YPA and that was with all 4 starting defensive backs having career years.

Aaron Rodgers and company will be able to move the ball. They won’t be able to run, but that’s not a big part of their offense anyway. I expect the Packers to score in the 30s here and, now on the road, I don’t expect Alex Smith and company to keep up. He could easily throw a couple picks if they get down early and get a head start on that increase in turnovers. Besides, it’s not smart to bet against the Packers. They were 11-6 ATS last year (including 7-2 ATS at home), which goes right along with their 35-19 ATS record from the last 3 seasons. The 49ers were 12-4-2 ATS, but that’s because they were so underrated for the first half of the season. After ripping off a 9-0-1 ATS stretch to start the season, they finished just 3-4-1 ATS. It’s one thing to have a strong ATS record when sneaking up on people like the 49ers did last year. It’s another thing to do it as defending Super Bowl champs. The Packers won’t sneak up on anyone this year either, but they’ll still be a covering machine. This is one of my favorite picks of the week.

Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -5 (-110) 4 units

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Randy Moss won’t start for 49ers?

stevenlourie 49ers, News

When the 49ers signed Randy Moss, it was certainly a high profile move for a team that lacked high profile wide receivers, but he was out of the league in 2011 and caught just 28 passes with 3 teams in 2010, so it’s fair to question how much he has left, if anything, as he heads into his age 35 season. One of the most telling things is how a team views a player. For the 49ers and the Randy Moss, it doesn’t look like they view him as a starter.

Multiple reports, including ones from SI and ESPN, say that Moss will not start for the 49ers this season. ESPN says that Moss will play in a receiver rotation this season, while SI reports that the 49ers want Moss to play about 20-25 snaps per game. Neither of those things says starter. Another offseason acquisition, Mario Manningham, has had a strong Training Camp and preseason and would be the most likely choice to start opposite Michael Crabtree, though remember, they will be rotating receivers.

Moss is off the fantasy radar as are all 49er receivers other than Crabtree. Even Crabtree should not be rated very high as he’s not likely to get the 72 catches for 857 yards and 4 touchdowns he had last season with all these new targets around him. Only Vernon Davis is worth getting excited about in fantasy circles. After Davis finally got Jim Harbaugh’s playbook down last season, he caught fire late and caught 28 passes for 538 yards and 5 touchdowns in their last 5 games, including playoffs. He should bounce back to his 2009 and 2010 levels of production (78/965/13 and 56/914/7) after a down season in 2011 (67/792/6).

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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San Francisco 49ers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Mike Iupati

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, 49ers

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the San Francisco 49ers, that player is guard Mike Iupati.

It was tough to find a breakout player for the 49ers because basically their entire starting defense broke out last season, which basically eliminated a whole side of the ball for me to choose from. However, they do have one budding Pro Bowler on their offensive line, left guard Mike Iupati. Iupati was the 17th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the highest drafted interior offensive lineman since the Seahawks took Steve Hutchinson in the same spot in 2010.

Iupati played very well in his 2nd season in the league, ranking 11th on ProFootballFocus with a 9.6 rating, playing every snap except 4. He was equally good as a run blocker and pass protector and allowed just 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures, while committing just 4 penalties. However, he was even better in his final 11 games, as his rating was 13.6 over those 11 games. If you include the 49ers’ two playoff games, his rating was 14.4 over 13 games, which would have ranked 7th at his position last year.

Heading into his 3rd season in the league, he has the upside to become a top-5 guard and make his 1st Pro Bowl, which was obviously the hope when the 49ers used such a high pick on him and his massive upside in 2010. He was a bit raw coming from small school Idaho, but he seems to be finally coming into his own and ready to take his place among the best interior offensive linemen in the league.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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San Francisco 49ers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie 49ers, News

P Andy Lee

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. Lee is one of the best in the game, averaging 45.7 yards per punt in his career and 50.9 per in 2011, so he’s definitely a candidate for the tag on a team with no other obvious candidates.

Likelihood: Likely

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49ers, Dashon Goldson have not made progress

stevenlourie 49ers, News

On the same day that one Bay Area franchise safety signed long term (Tyvon Branch of the Raiders), it is reported that another one, Dashon Goldson, and the San Francisco 49ers have not made any progress, this according to CSN Bay Area. There are no shortage of deals being signed by safeties in the past calendar year for the two sides to use as reference as Michael Huff, Michael Griffin, Tyvon Branch, and Eric Weedle have all signed deals in the range of 4-5 years, 6.5-8 million yearly, and 15-19 million guaranteed. Things have looked bleak for the two sides all offseason and Goldson even admitted earlier this week that he may have to play out the season under the 6.2 million dollar franchise tag.

It’s definitely possible that the 49ers just slapped him with the franchise tag to give him a one year “prove it” deal as last year’s Pro Bowl year was his only good year (last offseason he had to sign for a small 1 year deal). On top of that, they may feel his strong season in 2011 was the result of incredible play upfront from the front 7. The fact that he was actually one of the most frequently beaten safeties in the league last year (4th most yards surrendered with 458, and 5th most touchdowns surrendered with 4) despite his 6 interceptions supports this. ProFootballFocus graded him 71st among 84 safeties in coverage, though he was above average against the run.

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49ers’ Dashon Goldson admits he may have to play season under franchise tag

stevenlourie 49ers, News

With just 5 days left for him to sign a long term deal before the deadline for franchise players to do so, San Francisco 49ers safety Dashon Goldson admitted today that he may have to play out next season under the 6.2 million dollar franchise tag. Earlier this offseason, it appeared that a deal would get done as Goldson reportedly wanted 8 million yearly and the 49ers were willing to offer 7, not a huge difference to make up. On top of that, there were no shortage of deals being signed by safeties in the past calendar year for the two sides to use as reference as Michael Huff, Michael Griffin, and Eric Weedle have all signed deals in the range of 4-5 years, 7-8 million yearly, and 15-19 million guaranteed.

However, things no longer look so optimistic after Goldson’s comments, which were reported first on foxsports.com. It’s possible the 49ers just don’t see Goldson as that caliber of player even though they used their franchise tag on him. Last offseason, they let him explore the open market as much as he wanted before he settled on a cheap one year deal back with the 49ers.

Though he made the Pro Bowl last season, the 49ers may want him to prove it again in 2012 as he had done nothing substantial until 2011. On top of that, they may feel his strong season in 2011 was the result of incredible play upfront from the front 7. The fact that he was actually one of the most frequently beaten safeties in the league last year (4th most yards surrendered with 458, and 5th most touchdowns surrendered with 4) despite his 6 interceptions supports this. ProFootballFocus graded him 71st among 84 safeties in coverage, though he was above average against the run.

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