Bears

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)

This line suggests that these two teams are even and that the Buccaneers have a standard homefield advantage, as the Buccaneers are favored by a field goal at home. I don’t agree with either of those. The Buccaneers are just 18-36 ATS at home since 2009 and have been outscored by 48 points at home on the season this year, as opposed to +6 on the road. They also rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, a few spots lower than the Bears, who rank 18th.

On top of that, the Bears were missing Jay Cutler for two games, which skews that number a little bit. In the 12 games Cutler has been healthy, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the other 2 games. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but there’s no denying the Bears would rank higher if Cutler had been healthy all year, like he is now.

The Bears have also faced a much tougher schedule than the Buccaneers, ranking 2nd in strength of schedule, as opposed to 30th for the Buccaneers. The Bears have been a slightly better team than the Buccaneers this season, despite a way tougher schedule, and despite missing their starting quarterback for two games, but despite that, they’re 3 point underdogs here in Tampa Bay, where the Buccaneers have had little to no homefield advantage in recent years. We’re definitely getting line value with the Bears.

The Bears are also in a way better spot, as they host the Lions next week, while the Buccaneers have to go to Carolina. With their season over in terms of their playoff chances, the Buccaneers could definitely get caught looking forward to their chance at ending the Panthers undefeated season. While the Bears are expected to be favored by 1.5 points next week at home against the Lions, the Buccaneers are expected to be 10 point underdogs in Carolina, per the early line.

The Panthers could definitely end up deciding to rest their starters at least somewhat in that one, with the #1 seed likely to be locked up by then, but they might not with a perfect season on the line and that game could easily serve as a distraction for the Buccaneers this week either way. Teams are 37-58 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and 37-60 ATS since 2002 as favorites before being double digit underdogs. On top of that, favorites are just 103-169 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Combining the two trends, teams are 20-47 ATS since 1989 as favorites before being double digit underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites.

It also helps the Bears that they are in their 2nd of 2 road games. Teams are 128-94 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 223-224 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 320-435 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.70 points per game. I love the Bears this week. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because talented wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is expected to be a gametime decision for the Bears.

Chicago Bears 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: High

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Chicago Bears (5-8) at Minnesota Vikings (8-5)

This line is way too high at 6. The Vikings are 8-5, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 because of a tougher schedule, including two losses by 17 or more, and they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Bears are only 5-8, but they rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, as 5 of their losses have come by 6 or fewer, relevant, considering this line is at 6. In fact, excluding the two games Jay Cutler missed with injury, the Bears’ biggest loss came by 8, week 1 against the Packers.

In the 11 games Cutler has been healthy, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.03% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the other 2 games. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but this is just the Bears’ 7th game with Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Alshon Jeffery all healthy so they are probably more talented than their 13th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests. Outside linebacker Pernell McPhee is also expected back, after missing last week.

The Vikings get defensive tackle Linval Joseph back from injury this week, which is significant, but they’re still in a worse injury situation than they have been for most of the year, as outside linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Harrison Smith, two of their best defensive players, remain out. They’re less talented than their 16th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests. The Bears, I think, are the better of these two teams right now and yet we’re getting 6 points with them on the road.

The Vikings are also in a bad spot, as divisional home favorites with winning percentages of 50%-67% are 65-95 ATS in weeks 15-17. It’s a weird one, but it does make sense that teams competing for a playoff spot would choke against divisional opponents late in the year. The Vikings are in a good spot too though, as they host the Giants next week, while the Bears go to Tampa Bay. Favorites are 86-63 ATS before being favored again when their opponent will next be underdogs, since 2014. I still like the Bears’ chances of keeping this one close a good amount though.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (5-7) at Chicago Bears (5-7)

The Bears rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains, but have been better when Jay Cutler has been healthy this season. In Cutler’s 10 starts, they’ve moved the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games Cutler missed his injury. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but this is just the Bears’ 6th game with Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Alshon Jeffery all healthy so they are probably more talented than their rank in rate of moving the chains suggests.

The Bears rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a below average offense, because of an above average defense that ranks 10th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Vic Fangio has done a fantastic job turning this once awful unit around in a hurry in his first season as defensive coordinator. However, they’re expected to be without outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, who is having a borderline All-Pro caliber season in his first year in Chicago, for this one, which really hurts.

They’re also missing tight end Martellus Bennett and wide receiver Marquess Wilson, which will make it easier for defenses to focus on Alshon Jeffery. The Redskins rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential and have a couple injuries of their own (cornerback Chris Culliver, defensive end Stephen Paea, and middle linebacker Perry Riley), but none of those are that major and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less so I don’t think the Bears deserve to be favored by 3.5 here, especially considering they have just 2 wins by more than a field goal and one win by more than four points all season.

The Bears are also in a tough spot, with a trip to Minnesota on deck. With their season essentially over, the Bears could get caught looking past the Redskins to the division rival Vikings. The Redskins, meanwhile, host the Bills next week, an easier game, and one in which they’re expected to be favored. Favorites (like the Bears) are 98-167 ATS before being underdogs (as they will be next week) if their opponent will next be favorites (like the Redskins will be next week). I like the Redskins a good amount.

Chicago Bears 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bears, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at Chicago Bears (5-6)

The 49ers have been the worst team in the NFL, by a wide margin, according to rate of moving the chains differential. They have a -11.74% differential and no other team in the NFL is worse than -6.29%. While the 49ers have been half passable at home, going 3-3 (4-2 ATS), including victories over winning opponents in the Falcons and Vikings, they’ve been horrendous on the road, losing all 5 games (1-4 ATS) by an average of 21.0 points per game. Their rate of moving the chains differential is -17.18% on the road, a truly awful showing, and really bad news considering they have a road game this week.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve also been a lot better offensively when Jay Cutler has been healthy, moving the chains at a 72.16% rate in the 9 games he’s been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games he was hurt. Not only is Cutler healthy, but so are running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, huge parts of their offense. This will be just their 5th game having all three of them healthy this season. Given that, they shouldn’t have much of a problem winning by a touchdown or more at home against the 49ers.

Chicago Bears 24 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago -7

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

The Packers lost to the lowly Lions in their last home game, but they’ve generally had a ton of success at Lambeau recently. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-13-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-5 straight up, with an absurd +608 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.82 points per game. That homefield advantage seems to be priced into this line though, as the Packers are favored by 9 (up from 7 a week ago), despite the fact that they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and the Bears rank 19th.

The Bears have also been better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy (72.62% rate of moving the chains differential in the 8 games he’s been healthy, 56.25% rate in their other 2 games) and are getting Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery back from injury this week. Tight end Martellus Bennett, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and possibly safety Antrel Rolle are out with injury, but the Bears are still healthier than they’ve been for most of this season. The Packers are pretty healthy too, but could be without center Corey Linsley on a short week and haven’t been as good offensively all season without top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season. They are a great home team, but are far from a lock to blow out a decent Bears team.

The Packers are in a good spot, with a trip to Detroit on deck. Teams are 109-85 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012 and 71-50 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites over that same time period. However, so are the Bears, who host the 49ers next week. Underdogs of 6+ are 146-97 ATS before being 6+ point favorites since 1989. Lines can change so neither team is a lock to be in the spot I mentioned, but, either way, the logic holds. Both teams are have easy games on deck and should be very focused for this game. I’m taking the Packers by default at home, but I can’t put money on them unless this line goes back down to 7.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -9

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Broncos, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

The Broncos are in a really tough spot here this week, with probably their toughest and biggest game of the season on deck, a clash with Tom Brady and the currently undefeated New England Patriots in Denver, a game in which the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 point road favorites, per the early line. Teams tend to struggle before being huge home underdogs, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. Teams are 43-80 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 22-52 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Making matters even worse is the fact that the Broncos are road favorites here in Chicago. Teams are 19-36 ATS since 2010 as road favorites before being home underdogs, as it’s understandably very hard to focus on an inferior opponent when you have such a tough upcoming game.

Speaking of the Broncos being road favorites, I think this line is way off, even with the Broncos only being favored by a point. Denver, despite their record, ranks 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their defense has been strong, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, though they haven’t been quite as good in the last 2 weeks without starting defensive end DeMarcus Ware, who will miss his 3rd straight game this week. The offense is what’s been the problem for the Broncos, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains.

The Broncos switch from Peyton Manning, who is old and banged up, to Brock Osweiler this week. Manning is officially listed as out with a foot injury, but he’s no lock to regain his job when healthy. He was playing so poorly (59.9%, 6.77 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions) that Osweiler could easily be an upgrade and the variance and unpredictably of an inexperienced quarterback scares me when betting against one, because I just don’t know how good they are, but Osweiler will be hamstrung by the same weak running game and offensive line as Manning.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been much better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy, as he’s playing some of the best football of his career under ex-Manning offensive coordinator Adam Gase. They move the chains at a 73.39% rate in the 7 games where Cutler has been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Both wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte are gametime decisions for this one, ahead of a Thursday Night trip to Green Bay, but Jeffery is expected to play and Forte’s replacement, Jeremy Langford, has been strong in his absence over the past 2 weeks. I don’t like that they play again in 4 days, but their opponent this week is tough enough that they should be focused and I don’t think they should be favored by any less than 4 points. Instead, Denver is favored by 1 in a bad spot. Chicago is my Pick of the Week.

Chicago Bears 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5)

The Bears are 7 point underdogs here this week and are expected to be 6 point underdogs next week at home for Denver. That’s not usually a good thing, as 6+ point underdogs are 41-63 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. However, the Bears do not deserve to be underdogs of this many. They rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams rank 26th. The Rams have arguably the worst offense in the NFL, not the kind of offense that can easily cover a touchdown spread. They’ve been better since Todd Gurley returned to the field from his injury, but the same could be said of the Bears with Jay Cutler healthy.

The Bears are moving the chains at a 74.26% rate in the 6 games that Cutler has started and finished, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte are both questionable for this one, but Jeffery has already missed 4 games with injury and Forte’s replacement Jeremy Langford looked good in his absence last week. Besides, the Rams are missing defensive end Chris Long and possibly safety TJ McDonald. It’s not enough for me to be confident in the Bears at all, especially with such a tough game on deck (teams are 22-52 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point home underdogs), but they’re my pick here.

St. Louis Rams 16 Chicago Bears 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-6)

These two teams both only have 2 wins, but the Chargers are significantly better. While the Bears rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Chargers rank 7th. Obviously that seems weird given their record, but they actually lead the league in yards per game and are 2nd in first downs per game, behind the Patriots. Their defense has been a serious problem, as they rank 25th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has been so good (4th) that they still rank 7th overall.

Their 2-6 record is largely the result of a 2-4 record in games decided by a touchdown, a -6 turnover margin, a -3 return touchdown margin, a -7.4 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -10.5 yards per punt return margin. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team though, but rather that they have the framework of a good team, but just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 8 games and could easily be 4-4, 5-3, or even 6-2.They’ve almost won in both Green Bay and Cincinnati. They should be favored by more than 4 here against a Bears team that’s mediocre at best.

That being said, I can’t bring myself to put money on the Chargers for a couple of reasons. The first is that they’re going into a bye. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 38-62 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye.

The second reason is injuries, as the Chargers are so unbelievably banged up right now. They’ve had injury problems all year and still have moved the ball better than their opponents, a testament to how well quarterback Philip Rivers has played, but this is as bad as it’s been all year. Wide receiver Keenan Allen, tight end Lardarius Green, left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, center Chris Watt, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, and possibly defensive end Corey Liuget are all out for this one. Losing Allen, 3rd in the league in receiving yards, for the season last week is a huge blow. They are likely to get safety Eric Weddle back, who they really missed him over the past 2 weeks, and the Bears are missing running back Matt Forte, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and center Hronnis Grasu, but I can’t be confident in the Chargers with as many injuries as they have.

San Diego Chargers 34 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)

Minnesota is favored here by a point on the road in Chicago. That’s a pretty reasonable line. Minnesota ranks 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bears rank 26th. However, the Bears are at home, which obviously helps, and they’re finally at full strength, after having starters like Jay Cutler, wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, left tackle Jermon Bushrod, and safety Antrel Rolle miss significant line with injury early in the season. Meanwhile, the Vikings, who have stayed relatively healthy this season, are entering their 2nd straight game without key defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd.

I’m kind of hoping that the Vikings become underdogs by game time, but I have no idea if that’s going to happen. If they’re underdogs, it puts them in a way better spot than the Bears, because, while the Bears have to turn around and go to San Diego, where they’re expected to be underdogs of 4, the Vikings host the Rams next week, and are expected to be favored by 3. Underdogs are 166-94 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

Even if the Vikings stay favorites of a point, they’re still in a pretty good spot. Road favorites off of a road win are 42-30 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game.

That trend goes to 51-51 ATS if the Vikings were to become underdogs, but, combining this with the other aforementioned trend, the Vikings are in a better spot than the Bears either way this week. It makes sense if you think about it. The Vikings have an easier opponent on deck than the Bears do and are in their 2nd straight road game. That’s great for them. I feel confident enough to put money on them. This isn’t a higher confidence pick because of Floyd’s absence and all the public money on Minnesota, but the Vikings should be the right side.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -1

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-3) at Detroit Lions (0-5)

Normally, I love fading significant line movements and the Lions went from being favored by 6 in the early line last week to just favored by 3 now. Detroit did get blown out by the Cardinals and Chicago did win in Kansas City last week, but beating the Jamaal Charles-less Chiefs isn’t a big accomplishment and Detroit didn’t get crushed in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 72.09% rate, while the Cardinals moved them at a 77.78% rate, in a game that would have been a much different game by not for a fluky 6-0 win in the turnover battle by Arizona. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 6, on average, have a -0.4 turnover margin the following week, showing, once again, how inconsistent on a week-to-week basis something like turnover margin is. Home favorites are 55-39 ATS off of a game in which they lost the turnover margin by 4 or more since 1989.

However, I’m not confident in Detroit at all. They rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bears rank 24th, actually better than the Lions. Chicago is also in a better injury situation, with wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and left tackle Jermon Bushrod running this week. Detroit’s offensive line is getting healthier with LaAdrian Waddle and Larry Warford both working their way back from early season injuries, though defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and outside linebacker DeAndre Levy will both be out for this one. I’m taking the Lions because they’re playing by far the easiest opponent they’ve faced thus far this season (San Diego, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle, Arizona) and because this line is probably too low, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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