Bears

Chicago Bears sign OLB Pernell McPhee

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Uncategorized

McPhee was a risky signing this off-season. On one hand, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014 despite playing just 540 snaps. He was 2nd in the NFL behind only JJ Watt with 21 quarterback hits. He’s not a one year wonder as that type of player either as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle as a 5th round rookie in 2011 on just 348 snaps and has graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league. He’s supremely versatile with experience as a 3-4 outside linebacker, a 4-3 defensive end, a 3-4 defensive end, and a 4-3 defensive tackle. He’s also only going into his age 27 season and could break out as one of the best edge rushers in the game if he’s given a bigger role.

On the other hand, he’s still never played more than 540 snaps in a season so he’s still unproven as a full-time starter and he’s still unproven outside of Baltimore, where they have such great supporting talent defensively. However, at 8 million annually (5-year, 40 million) with just 16 million of that guaranteed, he’s well worth the risk. McPhee will work in rotation with Jared Allen and Willie Young in the Bears’ new 3-4 defense. Young and Allen both played well last season, but neither of them has ever played in a 3-4, as McPhee has for most of his career. He should have a significantly bigger role than he did in Baltimore, somewhere around 700-800 snaps annually, and could easily prove to be worth 11-12 million dollars per year.

Grade: A

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Chicago Bears trade WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Trade for Jets: The Jets surrendered a 5th round pick for Brandon Marshall in this deal, much like they surrendered a 6th round pick mid-season to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. Marshall is older than Harvin, going into his age 31 season, but I think this is a much better deal than the Harvin deal. Related, this deal allowed the Jets to release Percy Harvin and avoid paying him a 10.5 million dollar salary in 2015. All in all, the Jets paid 7.2 million and a 6th round pick for Harvin and got 29 catches, 20 kickoff returns, and 22 carries in a lost season, overall a head-scratching move by the Jets.

Back to Marshall, he’s coming off of a down season, catching 61 passes for 721 yards and 8 touchdowns. The catches and yards were both his lowest since his rookie year. He was limited by an ankle injury all season and missed the final 3 games of the season after suffering a collapsed lung in a game. However, Marshall had missed a combined 4 games in his previous 7 seasons and, even going into his age 31 season, he should be able to bounce back for at least two more good seasons. In addition to being incredibly durable prior to 2014, he was also incredibly consistent, catching at least 80 passes for 1000 yards in 8 straight seasons, including 5 seasons of 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. Even with the down year last year, he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons, including 8th in 2012, and 1st in 2013. The 7.7 million they’ll pay him in 2015 is pretty reasonable for him and his 8.1 million dollar salary for 2016 is non-guaranteed.

Grade: A-

Trade for Bears: The Bears’ new regime seemed pretty determined to move on from Marshall over the past week so in that sense credit them for getting a 5th round pick for him. The question I have is why they were so willing to get rid of him. Sure, he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off a down year, but, as I illustrated above, he should be able to bounce back and his scheduled salary for 2015 wasn’t much. Marshall has been notorious for not always being liked by his coaches and teammates and suffers from borderline personality disorder so that might have played a role in his departure, but he’s still a good football player with good football left in him. This move leaves the Bears with not only a huge hole opposite Alshon Jeffery at wide receiver, but they also still need help at the #3 wide receiver spot as Marquess Wilson is still incredibly unproven, with 462 snaps played in 2 years since the Bears drafted him in the 7th round in 2013. I don’t understand this move by them.

Grade: C

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Chicago Bears 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Bears, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Middle Linebacker

Linebacker was a big problem for the Bears last season, as no one played more than 696 snaps and only one player (Jon Bostic) played more than 461 snaps. Bostic was decent in his 2nd year in the league in 2014, after struggling in 2013 as a 2nd round rookie (51st out of 55 eligible middle linebackers). He’ll start at one of the two middle linebacker spots for the Bears, but they need someone else in there inside with him. Christian Jones, a 2014 undrafted free agent, who struggled on 443 snaps at outside linebacker as a rookie, is currently penciled in at that spot.

Defensive End

LaMarr Houston is expected to start at one defensive end spot in the Bears new 3-4 scheme under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. He tore his ACL week 8 in 2014, but he’s young enough with no real injury history that he should be fine for week 1. Jay Ratliff then seems like a natural fit at nose tackle, where he played in Dallas for many years. He’s an undersized nose tackle, but Fangio worked with undersized nose tackles in San Francisco, particularly Glenn Dorsey, who Ratliff compares favorably too. That just leaves them needing one more starter on the defensive line. Stephen Paea could be an option, but he’s a free agent and not a natural fit for a 3-4. Will Sutton and Ego Ferguson were 3rd and 2nd round picks respectively in 2014, but both struggled as rookies and neither is an ideal fit for a 3-4 either.

Offensive Tackle

The Bears signed Jermon Bushrod to a 5-year, 36 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, even though Drew Brees always made him look better than he was when he was protecting Brees’ blindside in New Orleans. He’s predictably graded out below average in each of the last two seasons and if he doesn’t turn it around, with a new regime in town, he could be gone next off-season, rather than receiving a non-guaranteed 6.4 million dollar salary in 2016. Meanwhile at right tackle, Jordan Mills was Pro Football Focus’ 74th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2013 as a 5th round rookie and he was only slightly better in 2014, grading out 66th out of 84 eligible. The old regime really liked him for some reason, but the new regime will have no allegiance. Michael Ola, their 6th offensive lineman, struggled last season and the Bears don’t have another good option at tackle on their roster so this is somewhere they should invest this off-season.

Center

Roberto Garza was limited to 12 games thanks to injuries in 2014 and graded out slightly below average when he was on the field. He’s going into his age 36 season in 2015 and Brian De La Puente, who played well in Garza’s absence, is a free agent this off-season. They need to add a center in the mid rounds so they’ll have a long-term starter at the position.

Cornerback

Kyle Fuller was the Bears 1st round pick in 2014. He played well to start the season, but dealt with nagging injuries all year, which proved to be too much for him as he tried to adjust to the NFL and he ended up grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked cornerback. Still, he has long-term potential and could easily bounce back in 2015 when he’s healthy. Opposite him, Tim Jennings is still playing well, but he’s going into his age 32 season. They also don’t really have that much depth at the position so this is a need for them this off-season.

Safety

The Bears need help at safety. Chris Conte, who has been there as a starter for the past 4 seasons, has never really been that good and now he’s a free agent. Brock Vereen, a 2014 4th round pick, was decent in limited action last season, but he’s still unproven. Meanwhile, Ryan Mundy was solid as the other starter, but he’s a veteran journeyman going into a contract year. This is somewhere they’ll have to add at some point this off-season.

Running Back

Matt Forte has been incredibly durable in his 7 year career at a positon where it’s really tough to do that, playing all 16 games 5 times and missing a combined 5 games in 7 seasons. However, he’s going into his age 30 season with 1817 career carries so it’s time to start thinking about a long-term successor. They really have no depth behind him as other Bear running backs combined for 36 carries last season. The Bears will run the ball more under John Fox so they’ll need to add depth. Ka’Deem Carey, a 2014 4th round pick, didn’t show much as a rookie.

Defensive Tackle

Assuming Jay Ratliff does play at nose tackle next season, the Bears will need a long-term successor. Ratliff looked done coming into this season, but he ended up grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked defensive tackle in 2014. He’s going into his age 34 season so it’s hard to trust him going forward though and the Bears don’t have anyone else who fits that position.

Quarterback

Jay Cutler is coming off arguably his worst season in the NFL. His numbers didn’t look terrible, as he completed 66.0% of his passes for an average of 6.80 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions and the Bears finished 15th in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 73.17% rate. However, much of that was because of his offensive supporting cast (guys like Forte, Marshall, Jeffery, and Bennett) and Marc Trestman’s system. Cutler actually finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible, after ranking 10th at his position in 2013 and 17th in 2012. Unfortunately, the Bears didn’t have anyone else other than Jimmy Clausen to turn to when they decided it was time to bench Cutler and that predictably didn’t work out. Cutler will be the Bears’ starter in 2015 and that’s the right move. They have no one of getting out of his contract and he’s shown in the past that he can be much better than he was last season, but they need someone better to turn to in case Cutler needs to be benched again.

Key Free Agents

DT Stephen Paea

Paea, a 2011 2nd round pick, had the best season of his career in 2014 and at the perfect time, as he was in a contract year. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked defensive tackle this year. However, teams should be wary about giving him too much money as he’s still a one year wonder. Paea graded out below average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career from 2011-2013, before 2014. I don’t expect him back with the Bears as he wouldn’t be a great fit for the new 3-4 defense they will be implementing under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

OLB Lance Briggs

Briggs is a potential future Hall of Famer and he’s spent all 12 seasons of his career with the Bears, since they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2003, making 7 Pro-Bowls, 3 All-Pros, and starting 170 games. However, he could very easily be done with the Bears as he heads into free agency. Briggs is going into his age 35 season and has missed a combined 15 games with injuries over the past 2 seasons. He could retire this off-season. If he wants to keep playing, he’s played well enough when on the field to suggest that he still has something left in the tank, as he’s still graded out above average in each of the last 2 seasons. He’ll probably have to settle for a 1-year deal though and have to wait a little bit into free agency.

C Brian De La Puente

De La Puente started 47 games for the Saints from 2011-2013 and graded out 13th, 4th, and 16th among centers in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. Still, despite that, he was forced to settle for a cheap one-year deal in free agency last off-season and didn’t have a guaranteed starting role. He ended up making 6 starts between center and left guard as injuries hit the Bears on the offensive line this year and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked center despite the limited action. No one played fewer snaps and graded out higher among centers. Only going into his age 30 season, he deserves a starting job and a multi-year deal in free agency this off-season.

CB Charles Tillman

Like Briggs, Tillman has been with the Bears for 12 seasons since they drafted him in the 2nd round in that same 2003 draft (if it wasn’t for the fact that they drafted Rex Grossman and Michael Haynes in the first round that year, it would have been an outstanding draft). However, like Briggs, Tillman has missed significant time with injury over the past 2 season and probably won’t be back with the Bears in 2015. Tillman was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback in 2012, but he’s missed 22 of 32 games with injuries over the past 2 seasons, has graded out below average when on the field in each of the last 2 seasons, and is now going into his age 34 season. He’ll probably have to wait longer than Briggs for a deal if he wants to keep playing. A move to safety has been discussed in the past.

S Chris Conte

Conte was a 3rd round pick in 2011 and he made 52 starts in 4 seasons with the Bears, but he graded out below average in all 4 seasons, with his worst season coming in 2013, when he graded out 82nd out of 86 eligible safeties. He shouldn’t be looked at as a starter on the open market this off-season and will probably have to settle for backup work.

QB Jimmy Clausen

Jimmy Clausen was one of the worst starting quarterbacks in recent memory as a 2nd round rookie in 2010 with the Panthers, completing 52.5% of his passes for an average of 5.21 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions on 299 attempts. He understandably didn’t attempt another pass until in 2014 with the Bears, where he actually started week 16 in place of a benched Jay Cutler, before missing week 17 with a concussion. Clausen was facing a tough Detroit defense, but didn’t look good, completing 23 of 39 for 181 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception.

MLB DJ Williams

DJ Williams graded out above average as a starter in 2010, but it’s been all downhill since then. He graded out 33rd out of 45 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers in 2011 and played a combined 785 snaps in the last 3 seasons from 2012-2014. Now going into his age 33 season, Williams could be at the end of his run in the NFL.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE LaMarr Houston

The Bears don’t have any real cap casualty candidates, but there’s a slight chance that they move on from Houston, who struggled by his standards early in 2014 before missing the final 8 games of the season with a torn ACL. He’s expected to be back by week 1, but there are no guarantees that he’ll be right away immediately and the Bears could save 6 million in cash and 3.03 million in cap space by cutting him. However, when healthy, he’s the kind of talented defensive player that the Bears are short on and he’d be an ideal fit as a defensive end in Fangio’s new 3-4 so I expect them to keep him.

G Matt Slauson

Slauson is also coming off a significant injury, missing 11 games with multiple injuries, including a season ending torn pectoral. The Bears can save 2.815 million in cash and 2.015 million on the cap by cutting him this off-season, but, when healthy he’s a very solid offensive lineman. He graded out above average in every season from 2010-2013, making all 64 starts, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked guard in 2013.

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (6-9)

The Bears made a curious move last week, benching big money quarterback Jay Cutler for journeyman backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler wasn’t necessarily living up to his contract, but the offense wasn’t the issue with the team, as they were moving the chains at a 74.43% rate in Cutler’s 14 starts, which was 11th in the NFL over that period of time (the defense was way worse). Clausen, meanwhile, was horrible in his only NFL action in Carolina in 2010 and did not seem to be a viable long-term solution or any sort of short-term upgrade. It was likely just a last dish effort for head coach Marc Trestman and his coaching staff to save their jobs.

It didn’t work at all. Not only did Clausen struggle in a 20-14 home loss to the Lions, completing 23 of 39 for 181 yards for 2 touchdowns and an interception, leading the Bears’ offense to a 67.86% rate of moving the chains. On top of that, Clausen suffered a serious concussion, spending the night in the hospital and forcing Trestman to go back to Cutler this week. It’s not going to help Trestman save his job because he’s probably gone regardless of the result of this game, but Cutler probably gives them the best chance to win this game.

It’s possible that Cutler would have struggled just as much as Clausen did last week as the Lions have one of the league’s best defenses, but the Bears’ offense was pretty solid through the first 14 games and even if you take last week’s game into account, we’re still getting a significant amount of line value with the Bears here. The Bears rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving the chains at a 74.04% rate, as opposed to 76.02% for their opponents, a differential of -1.97%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 28th, moving the chains at a 69.68% rate, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -4.52%.

Despite the fact that the Bears rank significantly better in that aspect, the Vikings are 6.5 point favorites here. We’re getting significant line value with the Bears. There aren’t a ton of good situational trends in play in games this week as most of them rely on upcoming distractions on the schedule, which obviously aren’t a factor week 17, but the Vikings are in a bad spot. Teams with losing records are 41-63 ATS as favorites off of 3 straight covers. It’s a weird one, but it does make some sense.

Losing teams obviously aren’t good teams, but they can be overrated by the odds makers off of 3 straight covers, especially if they’re favorites. In the Vikings past 3 weeks, they’ve kept it close with Miami and Detroit and beat the Jets by 6. It’s not unimpressive, but it’s not enough for them to deserve to be 6.5 point favorites here. They were only 5 point favorites against the Jets and they still needed a pick six and an 86 yard touchdown in overtime to even cover by 1 point. I have a decent amount of confidence in the Bears.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (10-4) at Chicago Bears (5-9)

This line was 4.5 last week, but it’s since moved to 7 in favor of the Lions, a line movement of 2.5 points that crossed both significant numbers of 6 and 7. It’s easy to understand why the line moved after the Bears were embarrassed on national television by the Saints. However, I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, especially if I get to fade the public in the process, as the public always loses money in the long run. This week’s game meets all those conditions as the public is all over the Lions, despite the line movement, and the line movement was unwarranted and an overreaction.

Yes, the Bears looked bad at home last week against the Saints, but the Lions didn’t exactly look good either, needing 3 Minnesota missed field goals and two Minnesota interceptions, including one that set the Lions’ offense up at the Minnesota 11, to beat the Vikings by 2 at home. The Vikings won the first down battle in that game by 10, 21-11. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Lions moved the chains at a 57.14% rate, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -17.05%. That’s actually worse than the Bears, who moved the chains at a 62.07% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for their opponents, a differential of -16.31%. And the Bears did so against a much better team, as the Saints rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, while the Vikings are in 27th.

When you look at how both of these two teams have done on the entire season in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, it becomes obvious that there’s significant line value with the Bears, especially after that unwarranted line movement. The Lions rank 15th on the season, moving the chains at a 70.60% rate, as opposed to 70.41% for their opponents, a differential of 0.20%. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 22nd, moving the chains at a 74.43% rate, as opposed to 75.92% for their opponents, a differential of -1.48%. There’s no way the Lions deserve to be favored by a touchdown here.

On top of that, the Lions are in a terrible spot. Favorites of 6 or more are just 47-81 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 18-33 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The 49ers lost straight up in Oakland in this exact same spot as 8 point favorites a couple weeks ago, ahead of a much bigger game in Seattle. The Lions could easily slip up here with a much bigger game in Green Bay next week, especially since the talent difference between the Bears and Lions isn’t nearly as much as the Raiders and 49ers.

Update: The Bears made the surprise move today to go to Jimmy Clausen instead of Jay Cutler at quarterback. I apologize to anyone who put money on Chicago +7 at my recommendation. I didn’t see this coming. Clausen is definitely not an upgrade on Cutler, who hasn’t been the problem in Chicago, leading this offense to be 11th ranked in rate of moving the chains differential. This move was likely just made as a wake up call to the rest of the team and it may do it’s job, at least for the time being, as everyone is getting fired in Chicago this off-season. The line has moved to 9 as a result and I still like Chicago at +9 with Clausen, which is the good news for anyone who took Chicago +7. I’m not as confident as I was before because I don’t think 2 points is enough of an adjustment for Cutler being out, so we’re losing some line value, but the Lions are still in a terrible spot and we’re still getting some line value by fading a Detroit offense that hasn’t moved the ball well all season as massive road favorites. There’s also some small Josh McCown potential with Clausen, who looked good in the pre-season, in Trestman’s system. Chicago is still the pick here and it’s still a money pick, but not as high a confidence pick as it was before.

Detroit Lions 20 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +9

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (5-8) at Chicago Bears (5-8)

This might be the toughest game of the week for me to pick. On one hand, Drew Brees is 22-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline. Brees and Payton generally bounce back from adversity well and coming off of a 41-10 loss to the Panthers last week, the Saints have hit rock bottom. You could see it in Sean Payton’s press conference after the game. You could see it by the moves they made this week, cutting Joe Morgan and benching Kenny Vaccaro. I like their chances of bouncing back this week with a playoff berth somehow still up for grabs in the pathetic NFC South. Teams are 81-47 ATS since 2002 off of an ATS loss off of 28 or more.

However, this line is still too high with the Saints favored by 3 on the road. It barely moved from last week when the early line was 3.5 and that might have even been too high then. The Saints rank 12th, moving the chains at a 79.70% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for their opponents, a differential of 1.31%. Meanwhile, the Bears rank 19th, moving the chains at a 75.30% rate, as opposed to 75.69% for their opponents, a differential of -0.39. The Bears are also in a good spot off of a 41-28 home loss to the Cowboys last week as home underdogs, as home underdogs are 69-47 ATS off of losses as home underdogs since 2002. I’m going with the Saints, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7)

This line is off. The Bears rank 18th, moving the chains at a 74.74% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.27% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of 0.96%. Not only should the Cowboys not be favored by more than a field goal here (3.5), I’m not convinced they should even be favored. On top of the line value we’re getting with the Bears, the Cowboys are also 12-27 ATS in week 13 or later as long as Tony Romo is the starter. This is the time of year to fade Romo and I think we’re getting more than enough value to do it. I’m fairly confident in the Bears as long as this line is more than a field goal.

Chicago Bears 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +165

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (7-4)

The Lions are in a nice spot here, after a very tough and unrewarding road trip that sent them to Arizona and New England, who are a combined 18-4. Teams that lose back-to-back road games are 43-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have a winning record and they’re home favorites. It makes sense. Any team that is able to lose two road games and still have a winning record and be favored at home was probably pretty good to begin with and may be undervalued off of those two losses. It’s a nice bounce back spot for the Lions.

While the Lions are coming off of a very challenging stretch, they’re about to start a very easy stretch as they host the Bears, the Buccaneers, and the Vikings in consecutive weeks. They’ll be very focused to get back on track this week and teams are 61-47 ATS as home favorites before being home favorites again in their next two weeks. On top of that, they could be double digit home favorites next week against the lowly Buccaneers, which would open up a couple other trends. Teams are 98-80 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites. That doesn’t seem that powerful, but it’s way more powerful when a team is home favorites before being double digit home favorites and their opponent will next be home underdogs, as is the case here. Teams are 27-10 ATS in that spot since 1989. The early line for Detroit/Tampa Bay is 9, so that trend might not be in play, but it’s worth mentioning and the logic could still hold. The Lions have no real distractions on the horizon.

The Bears, meanwhile, have to host the Cowboys next week, speaking of them being home underdogs next week. Divisional road underdogs are 58-71 ATS before being non-divisional home underdogs. The early line on that game is 3 and teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, as a game like that represents a big distraction. That line may end up being less than 3, so that trend isn’t definitely in play, but again it’s worth mentioning and the logic still holds. The Bears have a much more challenging game next week than the Lions and that bodes well for the Lions’ chances this week.

However, I’m not confident in the Lions at all because the advanced numbers suggest they aren’t as good as their record. The Lions move the chains at a 69.47% rate, as opposed to 71.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.53% that ranks 19th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.21% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 1.27%. The Lions have had a tough schedule, but I don’t trust their offense to cover this line, even against the Bears’ weak defense. Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson are powerful outside weapons, but they can’t run the ball, their offensive line is a mess thanks to injuries, they have nothing at tight end or over the middle, and Matt Stafford has been erratic this season. I’m taking the Lions because the trends say to, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 27 Chicago Bears 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)

The Bears have a much tougher game next week against the Lions in Detroit in just 4 days on Thanksgiving after this game against the Buccaneers. Favorites of 6 or more (which the Bears are here) are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more (the early line is 7) since 2002, while favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Buccaneers, as bad as their record looks, have had a bunch of close games this season, especially on the road where they’ve had win in Pittsburgh and Washington and close losses in Cleveland and New Orleans. They can keep this one close too against a likely distracted Chicago team.

Speaking of the Bears being 6 point favorites, they are 4-6 and teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. However, the Bears do just need to go 3-3 over their final 6 games and they’re favored in 3 of those final 6 games, which would put them at 7-9. They’ve also played a bit better than their record, moving the chains at a 76.62% rate, as opposed to 75.59% for their opponents, a differential of 1.03% that ranks 14th in the NFL. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, rank 29th, moving the chains at a 70.21% rate, as opposed to 75.81% for their opponents, a differential of -5.60%. That does suggest that this line at 6 points is more than reasonable, before you take into account the bad situation the Bears are in and how the Buccaneers have played better on the road this season than at home.

The Buccaneers are also in their 2nd straight road game, which tends to be an easier road game as teams get adjusted to the road.  Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. However, the Bengals are coming off of a big upset win in New Orleans last week as touchdown underdogs and teams are 39-47 ATS since 1989 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs of 7 or more. They could be overconfident here after that, which would nullify any advantage they get from being in their 2nd straight road game.

However, I still think the Buccaneers can have another solid showing on the road and keeping it close against a distracted Bears team. The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because the Buccaneers have a fairly tough game next week when they host the Bengals. Teams are 57-87 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more (the early line is Cincinnati -3.5). However, I still think there’s enough to be somewhat confident in the Buccaneers.

Chicago Bears 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +6

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

The Bears have been blown out in back-to-back games, losing 51-23 in New England and 55-14 in Green Bay in their past 2 weeks. However, I like their chances of bouncing back here. For one thing, teams usually do well off of back-to-back blowout losses, as teams are 40-23 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, including 6-3 ATS since 2002 as favorites. That makes sense as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think the Bears have a good chance to be all three this week, even as favorites. There’s a small sample size with favorites in this situation, but I think favorites’ record in this situation since 2002 suggests two things. One, that teams are not favored off of back-to-back blowout losses very often. Two, that teams still cover and that aforementioned logic stills holds despite being favorited. Teams aren’t usually favored in this situation, but when they are, it’s for good reason.

Despite the fact that they are favored by 3 here and that they got blown out in their last 2 games, we’re actually getting some line value with the Bears, which goes back to the whole they are undervalued thing. They are 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at 76.03% rate, as opposed to 76.79% for their opponents, a differential of -0.76%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 68.63% rate, as opposed to 71.59% for their opponents, a differential of -2.95%. The Bears should be favored by more than a field goal here despite what has happened in the last 2 weeks. At the same time, the Vikings are in a bad spot with a game in Green Bay up next. Teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 28-60 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 8-22 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is Green Bay -7.5). The Bears are the right side here.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: Medium

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