Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals sign DE Michael Johnson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bengals, Uncategorized

The Buccaneers signed Michael Johnson to a 5-year, 43.75 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from Cincinnati. Johnson struggled mightily in his one year in Tampa Bay, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 53rd ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible on 648 snaps in 14 games. Still, I was surprised when they gave up on him after one year, as they didn’t get back the 16 million they already paid him for one-year and he could have bounced back in 2015. Much of the reason why he struggled in 2014 was probably the ankle injury that hampered him all season.

Tampa Bay’s loss is Cincinnati’s gain, as they get Johnson back, which fills a huge need they had at defensive end last season in his absence, and they get him far cheaper than he would have been last off-season, as this deal will pay him 24 million over 4 years. Johnson has a good chance to bounce back this year now that he’ll be healthier and now that he’s back in Cincinnati. Ex-defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is gone, but the Bengals promoted internally with Paul Guenther so the system didn’t really change.

Prior to last season’s down year, Johnson was one of the better edge rushers in the NFL, hence why he got the big contract. A highly athletic 2009 3rd round pick who struggled to put it all together in the first 3 years of his career, grading out below average in every season from 2009-2011, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and then proved it again on the franchise tag in 2013, grading out 4th at his position. This is a relatively low risk deal that has strong potential to be a steal.

Grade: A

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Cincinnati Bengals re-sign G Clint Boling

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bengals, Uncategorized

Talented guards Orlando Franklin and Mike Iupati got 5-year deals worth 36.5 million and 40 million respectively with 20 million and 22 million guaranteed respectively from the Chargers and Cardinals respectively this off-season. I like both of those deals and thought they were solid values, but the deal Clint Boling signed to stay in Cincinnati is the best of the trio I think. Boling’s deal will only pay him 26 million over 5 years with just 5 million guaranteed.

Boling, a 2011 4th round pick, barely played as a rookie (175 snaps), but he’s been a starter over the past 3 seasons, making 44 of 48 starts (2 of which were at right tackle) and grading out above average in all 3 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked guard in 2012, 18th ranked in 2013, and 19th ranked in 2014. He’s quietly one of the better guards in the NFL and this is a very good value for him.

Grade: A

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Cincinnati Bengals 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Bengals, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive End

Other than Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins, the Bengals’ defensive line was horrible last season as only those two players played a snap for the Bengals on the defensive line and graded out above average. Wallace Gilberry and Robert Geathers were horrible as the Bengals #2 and #3 defensive ends last season, grading out 46th and 59th respectively out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. Geathers can be a cap casualty, while Gilberry can be a reserve. Margus Hunt and Will Clarke are recent early picks, 2013 2nd round and 2014 3rd round respectively, but neither has been able to make it on to the field much early in their careers. Hunt has played 352 snaps in 2 seasons, while Clarke only played 64 snaps as a rookie, despite the aforementioned significant struggles ahead of him on the depth chart. More talent needs to be added this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

Geno Atkins had a down year by his standards this season, grading out just 20th at his position, but he’ll be better in 2015 in his 2nd year since the ACL tear. The issue is next to him, where Domata Peko has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 66th ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible in 2013 and 80th out of 81 eligible in 2014. Going into his age 31 season, the Bengals should cut him to save 3.7 million in cash and cap space for 2015. Even if they don’t let him go, they should still bring in an upgrade and make him a reserve. Peko should not be starting for this team next season.

Middle Linebacker

The Bengals need to figure out their linebacking situation. Rey Maualuga was only a part-time player in 2014 (for good reason after how he struggled in 2011, 2012, and 2013) and now he’s a free agent. Vontaze Burfict was limited to 5 games by knee problems and then had a serious knee procedure that has put his 2015 in doubt. Emmanuel Lamur and Vincent Rey both saw significant playing time this season, but both struggled. Lamur was Pro Football Focus’ 39th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible, while Rey graded out below average in action at both outside linebacker and middle linebacker.

Outside Linebacker

I detailed the Bengals’ linebacker problems above. Emmanuel Lamur is currently penciled into one 4-3 outside linebacker spot, but he struggled mightily last year. Vontaze Burfict was great at outside linebacker in 2013, but his future is clouded by injuries. Vincent Rey can play outside linebacker, but he struggled there in 2014 and he can also play middle linebacker. There should be more clarity before the draft, but I still expect them to add one linebacker at least in the early to middle rounds.

Guard

Clint Boling and Kevin Zeitler have been a great guard duo over the past 3 years, since they drafted Zeitler in the 1st round in 2012. Both have graded out above average in all 3 seasons for the Bengals. However, Clint Boling is a free agent this off-season and the Bengals are in danger of losing him. If he’s not able to be re-signed, he’ll need to be replaced.

Center

I know the Bengals like him, but 4th round rookie Russell Bodine played like one, grading out 33rd out of 41 eligible. I’m not convinced he’s their center of the future. They should add some competition for him this off-season.

Quarterback

The Bengals are in an awkward spot with Andy Dalton. Dalton has lost each of his first 4 playoff games, the 2nd quarterback in NFL history to do that. That has led some to wonder if he can ever possibly win a playoff game, which is an absurd question considering the list of quarterbacks who have won playoff games (TJ Yates and Tim Tebow are recent examples). Dalton is there every year, making the playoffs in each of his first 4 years in the NFL, and he is a quarterback capable of winning the Super Bowl if everything is right around him, but he’s also far from the ideal signal caller. The problem is the Bengals aren’t exactly in a position to find an upgrade on him any time soon. Jason Campbell is a free agent this off-season though, so the Bengals should at least find a better backup quarterback in case they need to turn to him.

Key Free Agents

G Clint Boling

Boling, a 2011 4th round pick, barely played as a rookie (175 snaps), but he’s been a starter over the past 3 seasons, making 44 of 48 starts (2 of which were at right tackle) and grading out above average in all 3 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked guard in 2012, 18th ranked in 2013, and 19th ranked in 2014. He’s quietly one of the better guards in the NFL and will command a decent amount on money on the open market. He’s expressed interest in returning to Cincinnati and they’d love to have him back.

CB Terence Newman

Terence Newman looked done after his 2011 season with the Cowboys, when he graded out 94th out of 109 eligible cornerbacks, but he revived his career in Cincinnati over the past 3 seasons, making 41 starts and grading out above average in 2 of 3 seasons. The issue is the one season he did grade out below average was last season, which is especially concerning for two reasons. The first reason is that it was his first season in Cincinnati without legendary defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who Newman was successful with in Dallas as well. The second reason is simply age, as Newman heads into his age 37 season. He might not have another left in him. He’ll probably have to wait a while for the phone to ring if he wants to keep playing. Perhaps a reunion in Minnesota with Zimmer would be good for both sides.

MLB Rey Maualuga

Rey Maualuga started his career at outside linebacker and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th and 11th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2009 and 2010 respectively, after the Bengals took him in the 2nd round in 2009. However, the Bengals moved him to middle linebacker for 2011 and it’s been a steady decline. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 36th ranked middle linebacker out of 51 eligible in 2011 and worst ranked in 2012. He was re-signed to a 2-year deal after that disastrous 2012 season, but he started seeing progressively fewer passing down snaps, playing 610 snaps in 2013 and 452 snaps in 2014. He graded out below average in both 2013 and 2014 once again and he missed 7 games with injuries combined in those 2 seasons. He’s decent against the run, but horrible in coverage. He’d be best off as a two-down 4-3 outside linebacker somewhere in his next stop.

TE Jermaine Gresham

Jermaine Gresham, a 2010 1st round pick, somehow made the Pro-Bowl in both 2011 and 2012, but has hardly been a Pro-Bowl caliber player thus far in his 5 year career. His receiving numbers aren’t horrible (280 catches for 2722 yards and 24 touchdowns in 74 career games), but he’s a terrible run blocker and one of the most penalized tight ends in the game. He’s graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons in the NFL, including each of the last 3. He was a little better in 2014, but he ranked 61st out of 62 eligible tight ends in 2012 and 64th out of 64 eligible in 2013. With 2013 1st round pick Tyler Eifert in the mix and ready for a bigger role in 2015, I don’t expect Gresham back with the Bengals.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Robert Geathers

Robert Geathers was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2014. This should not be a surprise considering he ranked 58th out of 62 eligible in 2012, 57th out of 67 eligible in 2011, 65th out of 65 eligible in 2010, and 70th out of 73 eligible in 2009. He wasn’t going to be better in 2014, on the other side of 30, coming off of torn elbow ligaments that limited him to 22 snaps in 2013. Now he’s going into his age 32 season in 2015 and the Bengals can save 3.050 million in cash and on the cap by releasing him. It shouldn’t be a hard decision.

DT Domata Peko

Domata Peko was once a solid starter for the Bengals, but he has really struggled over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 66th ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible in 2013 and 80th out of 81 eligible in 2014. Going into his age 31 season, the Bengals could easily cut him to save 3.7 million in cash and cap space for 2015.

CB Leon Hall

Leon Hall made 15 starts for the Bengals in 2014, but graded out below average last season for the first time in his 8-year career. That shouldn’t be a surprise considering he tore his Achilles twice and had a 3 year stretch from 2011-2013 where he played 28 games. Now going into his age 31 season, Hall’s best days are likely behind him. Hall is owed 7.8 million non-guaranteed in 2015 and the Bengals can save all 7.8 million of that in cap space by letting him go this off-season. Even though they’re not starved for cap space, they might still pull the trigger on that move, especially if they want to be big free agency players, and go into 2015 with Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard, Adam Jones, and maybe Terence Newman at cornerback.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

In addition to adjusting playoff teams’ rate of moving the chains differentials for strength of schedule, another thing I did differently this week was breaking out schedule adjusted differential into a team’s last 4 games and into a team’s last 8 weeks instead of just the whole season. The motivation for this is because I started the season 100-60 against the spread in the first 11 weeks of the season, but just 43-49 in the final 6 weeks. A similar thing happened in 2012 and 2013 as well and I think part of it is because I put too much stock into old data late in the season. Breaking out the data into the last 4 games and the last 8 games allows me to find out which teams are “hot” at the moment, something that might be masked by the season long data.

Two things this data revealed for me this week are relevant to this game. Before I did this, I was ready to make a big play on Indianapolis. The Colts rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving the chains at a 74.96% rate, as opposed to 70.28% for their opponents, a differential of 4.67%. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank all the way down at 16th, 2nd worst among playoff teams, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 71.90% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. On top of that, the Bengals are without AJ Green this week.

However, the data from the past 4 games and the past 8 games revealed that the Bengals have gotten a lot better as the season has gone on. On the season, the Bengals rank last among playoff teams in schedule adjusted differential at 0.48%, but over the past 8 games they rank 8th at 3.12% and over the past 4 games they rank 6th at 6.77%. You might think that AJ Green’s return from an earlier injury, which essentially cost him 4 games this season, is the reason behind that. However, their offense has remained below average in all 3 timeframes, season long, last 8 games, and last 4 games.

The unit that has gotten so much better over the course of the season is their defense, in Paul Guenther’s first season as defensive coordinator. They really missed Mike Zimmer to start the season, as their ex-defensive coordinator is now the head coach in Minnesota, but they’ve missed him less and less as the season has gone on, as Guenther’s defense has come into its own. Besides, in the 4 games they’ve been without Green this season, they haven’t been significantly worse offensively, moving the chains at a 69.83% rate in those games, as opposed to 72.46% in their other 12 games. They will struggle to move the chains without him, but their defense should play well once again.

One of the games that Green missed was the Bengals’ earlier trip to Indianapolis, a 27-0 blowout loss by the Bengals that was even worse than the final score suggested. The Bengals went three and out in their first 8 drives and ended up moving the chains at a mere 40.00% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for the Colts, a differential of -35.00%. It was easily the Bengals’ worst performance of the season. The good news for the Bengals is teams are 13-25 ATS in the playoffs in same site, non-divisional revenge games since 2002.

On top of that, teams are 7-2 ATS in the playoffs as underdogs over that same time period against non-divisional opponents that previously beat them by 21 or more in the regular season. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Bengals were also in a terrible spot in the first matchup, exhausted off of a tie with the Panthers the previous week. Teams are 5-11 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-7 ATS on a bye. This week, they’re on normal rest.

Meanwhile, the Colts have gotten noticeably worse as the season has gone on, the other revelation that surfaced as a result of breaking up season long data into the past 4 weeks and the past 8 weeks. While the Colts rank 6th in schedule adjusted differential among playoff teams at 3.87% on the season, they rank 10th over the past 4 weeks at 1.55% and 11th over the past 8 weeks at -0.21%. The unit that has been largely responsible for this decline has been the offense, which has struggled with a season ending injury to Ahmad Bradshaw, a severely limiting injury to Reggie Wayne, and minor injuries to TY Hilton and Dwayne Allen. Hilton and Allen should be good for this game, but now Gosder Cherilus is hurt.

Luck’s numbers have gone down significantly over the 2nd half of the season, completing 57.6% of his passes for an average of 7.55 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions over the past 8 games as opposed to 64.8% completion, 7.87 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions over the first 8 games of the season. This is not the same Colts team that destroyed the Bengals earlier this year during week 7, nor is it the same Bengals team. The Bengals are in a good revenge spot and the sharps are on them, as the line has moved from 4 or 4.5 early in the week down to 3.5 now, despite the public being on Indianapolis. I love fading the public and going with the sharps whenever it makes sense and it does here. I’m not that confident though with Green expected to be ruled out.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Cincinnati Bengals 19

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

The Bengals lost 42-21 at home to the Steelers a few weeks ago in Cincinnati, but they’re in a great revenge spot here as a result. Divisional home favorites are 27-52 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (40-42) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate.

The Chargers are also in this spot this week, but, unlike the Chargers, I’m not taking the Bengals here for a few reasons. For one, the Bengals haven’t been as good in December as the Chargers have been recently. Two, the Bengals aren’t in their 2nd of two road games, like the Chargers are, a good spot. Three, this line is way off. The Bengals exorcised some of their primetime game demons last week in an impressive home victory over the Broncos, but they still rank just 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.96% rate, as opposed to 72.43% for their opponents, a differential of -0.47%. The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 6th, moving the chains at a 78.52% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 4.57%. I’m going with the Steelers, though I’m not confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -3.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Broncos, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)

The Bengals had a huge performance in Cleveland last week, winning the first down battle 24-5 against the Browns and moving the chains at a 78.38% rate, as opposed to 35.71% for their opponents. However, they still rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to 72.67% for their opponents, a differential of -0.54%. Meanwhile, the Broncos are best in the NFL, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate, as opposed to 71.20% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10%. Despite what the Bengals did last week, the Broncos definitely deserve to be field goal favorites here on the board.

The Broncos are also in a good spot in their 2nd straight road game, winning in San Diego last week. Teams are 56-37 ATS as road favorites off of a win as road favorites since 2002. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game.

On top of that, Manning has been very good in primetime games in his career, going 33-16 ATS in such games since 2003, over a decade ago. Andy Dalton doesn’t have the same amount of experience in these types of games so the sample size isn’t as big, but the Bengals don’t have a good history in games like this since he took over as the starter in 2011, going 2-9, including 3 playoff losses. Again, it’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely not good, especially when you compare it with Manning and his much larger sample size.

The Broncos also have the much easier game next week so they won’t be as distracted, as they host the Raiders in a game that could have this season’s biggest line. Non-divisional road favorites are 79-63 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 46-34 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 14 or more. Meanwhile, the Bengals have an equally big, if not bigger, game next week in Pittsburgh, a divisional opponent who they are competing with for both the division crown and potentially a wild card spot. I like the Broncos chances of covering here a good amount.

Denver Broncos 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -3

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1) at Cleveland Browns (7-6)

This line has shifted from the Bengals being favored by 1.5 earlier in the week to the Browns now being favored by 1.5. That erased a powerful trend working against the Bengals and replaced it with a powerful trend that works for the Bengals. That first trend says that road favorites are 77-120 ATS before being home underdogs since 1989 (the Bengals have the Broncos coming to town next week). The other trend says that divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season.

However, I’m still going with the Browns for a variety of reasons. The most obvious one is that that line movement isn’t that significant because it’s not only still within the field goals, but it’s between 2 points in either direction. The second reason is that the Bengals still have a really tough game against the Broncos next week. Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs (the early line is Denver -4). The Browns have a much easier game up next with a trip to Carolina on deck.

On top of that, that 25-49 ATS trend only makes sense when two teams are even. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate. These two teams are not even though.

They’re not uneven in the way you think either. The Browns actually rank significantly better than the Bengals this season. The Browns rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 69.36% rate, as opposed to 69.34% for their opponents, a differential of 0.02%. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 26th, moving the chains at a 71.32% rate, as opposed to 73.85% for their opponents, a differential of -2.53%. That’s before you take into account that Johnny Manziel should upgrade the Browns’ offense in his first start. Manziel won’t necessarily be great, especially not right away, but he’ll probably be better than Hoyer, who was really struggling, leading the NFL’s 25th ranked offense in rate of moving the chains.

If their offense is even slightly improved, the Browns, with a defense that ranks 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, are significantly better than the Bengals. Not only does that nullify that trend in my mind, but that means we’re getting significant line value with the Browns. The final reason I still like the Browns is because that line movement is a result of the sharps being all over Cleveland this week. I agree with them and I have a good deal of confidence as long as this line is 3 or less.

Cleveland Browns 20 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1)

The Bengals have been very good at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-2-1 at home since 2013, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.40 points per game, going 11-4 against the spread. They are also in a good spot because they are projected to be 2 point favorites in Cleveland next week. Teams are 116-84 ATS since 1989 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Despite that, I like the Steelers this week for a few reasons.

For one, they are only 2 point favorites next week so the line could move to the Browns being favored next week depending on the results of this week. That would put the Bengals in a horrible spot as divisional home favorites are 20-52 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. The Browns beat the Bengals earlier this season so that game on the horizon could potentially provide a distraction for them.

Two, this line is off because the Bengals are overrated. The Bengals don’t deserve to be favorites here. They rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 71.78% rate, as opposed to 73.37% for their opponents, a differential of -1.59%. The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 6th, moving the chains at a 77.86% rate, as opposed to 74.10% for their opponents, a differential of 3.75%. They’ve been the much better of these two teams this season. Even as good as the Bengals have been at home over the past 2 years, they only have a rate of moving the chains differential of 1.67% at home this season, moving them at a 74.49% rate, as opposed to 72.82% for their opponents. I’m not that confident in the Steelers, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9)

At first glance, the Buccaneers are in a terrible spot. After this game, they have to go to Detroit, where they could easily be double digit underdogs. The early line was 9, but after Detroit looked good on national TV on Thanksgiving that line could be pushed into double figures. Teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs as a tough game like that upcoming presents a massive distraction. Even if the line ends up being 9 or 9.5, it’s still worth mentioning and the logic could still hold either way. Going off of that, non-divisional home underdogs are 99-124 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs, no matter what the following week’s line is.

Making matters even worse, the Buccaneers are an embarrassing 13-31 ATS since 2009 at home, including 5-20 ATS as home underdogs. This season, they are 0-5 ATS at home and haven’t won any of those 5 games despite being favored in 3 of them (Carolina, St. Louis, and Minnesota) and playing 4 of them against 4 teams that are currently a combined 11-28-1. The only team they’ve played at home this season that this currently better than 4-7 was the Ravens who blew them out 48-17.

However, despite the Buccaneers’ terrible home record and the Bengals’ reasonable road record (3-2 straight up and against the spread), the Buccaneers have actually performed better in rate of moving the chains differential at home this season than the Bengals have on the road, regardless of what the records say. The Buccaneers have won the chains battle in 3 of 5 home games this season, while the Bengals have lost it in 3 of 5 road games.

On the season, the Bengals have moved the chains at a 68.35% rate, as opposed to 75.84% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -7.50%. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have moved them at a 71.72% rate, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, at home, a differential of -3.07%. It’s not enough for me to take the Buccaneers, but it’s enough for me not to be confident in Cincinnati, especially since they take on Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Denver, and Pittsburgh in their final 4 games after this random game against a 2-9 non-conference opponent and especially since the public is all over Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3.5

Confidence: None

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Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, Texans, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3-1) at Houston Texans (5-5)

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The odds makers always make money in the long run and they always have a much better sense of how good each team actually is because it’s their job to set these lines. I especially love fading the public when they’re on an underdog. They very rarely are, but if they are, chances are it’s because they’re falling into a trap by the odds makers. If the odds makers pick one team to be favored, but the public thinks another should be favored, chances are it’s not going to end well for the public.

The Bengals are a public underdog here and I can understand why. After all, Houston is just 5-5 while the Bengals are 6-3-1. However, the Texans are favored for a reason and it’s because they’re actually a better team than the Bengals, especially the Bengals on the road. The Texans rank 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.92% rate, as opposed to 72.92% for their opponents, a differential of -2.00. The Bengals, despite their record, rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 75.07% for their opponents, a differential of -3.64%. That gets even worse on the road, as they move the chains at a 65.71% rate on the road, as opposed to 78.00% for their opponents, a differential of -12.29%. Since the start of last season, they are 4-7-1 ATS on the road.

I’m hesitant to take the Texans because the Bengals are in their 2nd straight road game and historically teams do better in their 2nd straight road game than their 1st. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. However, the Bengals are coming off of a big upset win in New Orleans last week as touchdown underdogs and teams are 39-47 ATS since 1989 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs of 7 or more. They could be overconfident here after that, which would nullify any advantage they get from being in their 2nd straight road game. As long as this line is less than a field goal, I like the Texans here.

Houston Texans 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -1.5

Confidence: Low

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