Bills

Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7)

The Bills are in a good spot here this week, hosting the Cowboys next week, while the Redskins have a key divisional matchup in Philadelphia, which could decide the division. All games are important for the Redskins going forward, as they’re currently locked in a 3-way tie atop the division, but next week’s game is even more important because a win isn’t just a win for them, it’s also a loss for the Eagles and it wins the Redskins the tiebreaker between them and the Eagles, because they’ll own the season series. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites (the Bills are favored by 2 in Washington this week) before being favored again, if their opponent will be underdogs again the following week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

However, the Bills do not deserve to be 2 point road favorites here in Washington. This line doesn’t make any sense. These teams rank 19th (Washington) and 20th (Buffalo) in rate of moving the chains differential, so they’re comparably talented, and the Bills are more banged up, missing tight end Charles Clay, middle linebacker Nigel Bradham, and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, while the Redskins are relatively healthy. The Redskins should be favored by 3 points, if not 3.5, here at home and yet they’re underdogs. That’s not enough for me to put money on the Redskins, but they’re my pick here and if this line moves up to a field goal, I’d consider bumping this pick up to a higher confidence bracket.

Update: The line has moved up to 3. I’m moving this up to medium. There’s no reason a banged up Bills team should be favored by a touchdown in Washington.

Washington Redskins 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (6-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

I’m a little confused why this is an even line. I think the Eagles should be favored by at least a field goal. These two teams are very even in rate of moving the chains differential (Buffalo is 20th and Philadelphia is 21st) and, while the Eagles are arguably healthier than they’ve been all season, the Bills are missing two defensive starters, linebacker Nigel Bradham and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. It’s tempting to put money on the Eagles, but they have a tough upcoming home game against the Arizona Cardinals. They should be home underdogs of around 4 points. Teams are 80-125 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs and 45-84 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, since 2012. The Eagles are the pick though.

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia PK

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6)

The Texans started the season 1-4, but have won 5 of their last 6 games. This is a legitimate team in a generally weak NFL this season, as they rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. Brian Hoyer isn’t the best quarterback in the world or anything, but his job is made easy by a defense that ranks 7th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They’ve beaten the Jets and Bengals recently with backup quarterback TJ Yates playing, because of how good their defense has been recently.

They’re also arguably the healthiest team in the NFL, as they don’t have a single player listed as anything lower than probable. Arian Foster is their only key player on injured reserve and he barely played this season, totaling just 390 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches. Jadeveon Clowney being healthy and showing his #1 overall pick talent in recent weeks has been huge for them and they got cornerback Kareem Jackson back from a 4 game absence last week. They’re coming off probably their best defensive performance of the season last week, allowing a Saints offense that ranks 5th in rate of moving the chains to move the chains at a mere 58.33% rate. There’s a very good chance they carry that over into this week, against a much weaker offense.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential and have plenty of injuries. Kyle Williams and Percy Harvin are out for the season and have been since week 5 and week 6 respectively. Defensive end Mario Williams returns from a 1 game absence, but he hasn’t played well this season and the Bills are also missing right guard John Miller, right tackle Seantrel Henderson, running back Karlos Williams, and outside linebacker Nigel Bradham. Despite that, they’re favored by 3.5. Given that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, I’m confident enough in the Texans to put money on them.

Houston Texans 13 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)

This line was a field goal a week ago on the early line, but has since jumped to 6. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but, in this case, I think the line is just catching up to how good the Chiefs are. They’ve won 4 straight, including huge wins in Denver and San Diego over the past 2 weeks by a combined score of 62-16, following a tough early season schedule that caused them to start 1-5. Of their 5 losses, 4 of them came against Green Bay, Denver, Cincinnati, and Minnesota, all likely playoff teams, and their other loss came by one point against the Bears, a decent team. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, led by a defense that ranks 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed and that has been a lot better since getting top cornerback Sean Smith back from the suspension that cost him the first 3 games of the season.

The Bills, meanwhile, rank 22nd, so the Chiefs being favored by 6 makes a lot of sense. This line might even be too low, if anything. The Chiefs are banged up, missing defensive end Allen Bailey, guard Ben Grubbs, and possibly running back Charcandrick West, who seems to be a gametime decision. However, so are the Bills, who are missing defensive tackle Kyle Williams, defensive end Mario Williams, and guard John Miller. On top of that, quarterback Tyrod Taylor has a shoulder injury and is less than 100%. It’s tough to pick a side in this one with the line shooting up to 6, but the Chiefs should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at New England Patriots (9-0)

Ordinarily, I would be all over the Patriots here. They should be favored by more than 7.5 points at home against the Bills, as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank 21st. They’re also in a great spot, as they will be favored by 5.5 points (according to the early line) in Denver next week. Teams are 71-49 ATS before being road favorites of 4+, 43-29 ATS before being road favorites of 6+, and 29-13 ATS before being road favorites of 7+, since 2012.

However, the Patriots are so banged up that it’s hard to trust them. A week after losing running back Dion Lewis for the season with a torn ACL, the Patriots lost wide receiver Julian Edelman for likely the rest of the regular season with a broken foot last week. Those guys are such a big part of their offense that they’re almost certainly going to struggle to move the ball as well as they have thus far this season. Danny Amendola should be able to play decently in a larger role in Edelman’s absence, but he won’t be able to nearly replace both Edelman and Lewis by himself.

They obviously still have Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but they need a 2nd and 3rd option to step up in the passing game. They get offensive tackles Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon back from injury this week, but they’re still missing left tackle Nate Solder for the year. And, on the defensive side, top linebacker Jamie Collins is out for the 3rd straight game. I’m still taking New England, but I can’t bring myself to put any money on them unless the line goes under a touchdown.

New England Patriots 30 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3)

This line, 2 in favor of the Jets, suggests that the Bills are the slightly better team. I don’t think that’s true. The Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank all the way down at 24th. Given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, the fact that this line came off of 3, where it was earlier this week, is very intriguing, considering the Jets are the better team. It also doesn’t help the Bills that they’re coming off of a win. Rex Ryan coached teams are just 1-12 straight up off of a win since the start of the 2013 season (5-8 ATS), as Jets fans should know well. Given his personality and the type of coach he is, that makes a lot of sense.

The Jets are also in the better spot, as they head to Houston next week, while the Bills have a much tougher test in New England. While the early line favors the Jets by 3 over the Texans, the Bills are expected to be 10 point underdogs. Teams are 108-82 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012, while teams are 34-52 ATS before being 10+ point road underdogs over that same time period. The Jets are not guaranteed to be 3+ point favorites next week and the Bills are not guaranteed to be 10+ point underdogs next week, but, either way, the logic holds. The Jets don’t have an upcoming distraction, while the Bills definitely do.

The one thing that worries me is injuries, as the Jets are more banged up than they’ve been all season, missing two key starters from their secondary, safety Calvin Pryor and cornerback Antonio Cromartie. Ryan Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, will play, but is expected to get left thumb surgery tomorrow after the game. It’s his non-throwing hand, so it shouldn’t affect his ability to throw, but it could be problematic when he tries to hand the ball off or protect the ball while being sacked. He could also be knocked out of the game, which would force the Jets to turn to Geno Smith, who is a definite downgrade. Fitzpatrick made it through the game fine last week against Jacksonville, but the Bills should be able to pressure him more than the Jaguars did. Center Nick Mangold does return this week from a neck injury, which should help their offensive line majorly, but he also returned last week, before getting knocked out again.

The Bills, meanwhile, have quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, running back LeSean McCoy, and wide receiver Sammy Watkins all healthy for the 2nd straight week and are only missing wide receiver Percy Harvin and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Williams’ absence hurts their defense, but this is his 3rd straight missed game and their offense was a lot better last week with the aforementioned quartet healthy. The Jets should still be able to win by at least a field goal in this spot though.

New York Jets 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-4)

The bye came at the perfect time for the Buffalo Bills, who limped into the bye with two straight losses, including a loss in London to the Jaguars, in a game in which they were missing starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, talented backup running back Karlos Williams, starting wide receivers Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins, and star defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Bills aren’t 100% this week, but they definitely come out of the bye healthier. Harvin has been put on injured reserve (I know, shocker), Kyle Williams remains out, and Sammy Watkins is going to be a game time call after tweaking his ankle injury late in the week, but Taylor and Karlos Williams are both definitely returning. Taylor’s return is definitely the biggest one, as he was playing pretty well before going down, while backup quarterback EJ Manuel didn’t play well in his absence.

However, the Bills also come out of the bye into an awful spot, with a Thursday night trip to New York to play the Jets on deck, following this home contest against the Dolphins. Divisional home favorites are 21-58 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, one of the worst spots a team can be in. On top of that, favorites are 42-67 ATS before a Thursday night game since 2008. Meanwhile, divisional home favorites are just 31-54 ATS against a team they previously beat that season as divisional road favorites, as the Bills did back in week 3.

This would be my Pick of the Week most weeks. The only reason it’s not this week, in addition to the fact that I really like the undefeated Panthers as field goal home underdogs against Green Bay, is because the Bills are a slightly better team and are only favored by a field goal. They rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Dolphins rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. On top of that, they’re getting healthier, while the Dolphins just lost one of their top defensive players, Cameron Wake, for the season. However, the Bills are still far from healthy and we’re still getting field goal protection with the Dolphins (15.6% of games are decided by a field goal) and, of course, the Bills are in an awful spot. I really like Miami this week.

Miami Dolphins 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London

The Bills lost at home 34-21 to the Bengals last week and are in a mess of a situation injury wise, missing quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, wide receiver Sammy Watkins, wide receiver Percy Harvin, and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are arguably as healthy as they’ve been all season. While they have lost right guard Brandon Linder to injury for the season, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, safety John Cyprien, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, left guard Luke Joeckel, and tight end Julius Thomas have all missed time with injury thus far this season and will all play this week.

However, the Bills could still easily bounce back and cover as 4.5 point favorites here. This is technically a Jacksonville home game, but it’s in London, so it’s a neutral site game. The better team typically covers in London, going 8-4 ATS all-time, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10. It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.

The Bills aren’t very good, ranking 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential and in a rough injury situation, but the Jaguars are even worse, even though they have improved health, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Bills are 3-3 and still in the AFC playoff race so they should be able to get up for this game and beat the Jaguars by at least 5. I’m not confident at all though, as long as the line is higher than 3. Hopefully it falls before the game, but I’m not banking on it.

Buffalo Bills 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -4.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Bills, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)

Ordinarily, I love fading significant line movements because they’re usually overreactions to one week of action and this line moved from Buffalo being favored by 1.5 to now being home underdogs of a field goal. That’s significant. However, I still like the Bengals this week, even with the public all over them. I think that line movement was legitimate and that it was a bad line in the first place. The 5-0 Bengals are a legitimate top contender, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to significantly improved health on both sides of the ball. The Bills, meanwhile, only rank 20th.

The other reason this line is legitimate is because the Bills are expected to be without Tyrod Taylor, who has been a huge boost to this offense this season, likely  forcing them to go back to EJ Manuel, who has never been good outside of the pre-season and who will be a big downgrade from Taylor. The Bills are getting healthier around the quarterback on offense, with Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy coming back, though the latter has struggled with hamstring problems all year and might not be a big boost to a struggling running game. Their only good running back this season has been rookie Karlos Williams, who is once again out with a concussion. The Bills will miss him and Taylor in this one against what I mentioned is an almost completely healthy Bengals team.

It also helps the Bengals that they’re going into a bye and good teams tend to cover pretty easily going into a bye. I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Bengals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. The Bills, meanwhile, have the opposite of a bye on deck, as they have to pack up and go to London to face the Jaguars. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. I’ll leave this as a low confidence pick for now, but when Taylor is officially ruled out (he’s listed as questionable, but no one is buying it), I’ll move it up to medium and put money on it, unless the line moves above 4.

Update: Taylor won’t be playing. I’d put money on Cincinnati -3.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-2)

Tennessee was originally going to be my Pick of the Week at the beginning of the week. I changed that for a few reasons. For one, the line moved from 3 in favor of Buffalo to 1 mid-week, which is a significant line movement, considering 23.3% of games are decided by 3 points or fewer. Instead of having field goal protection with the Titans, this line is now essentially a pick ‘em. Also, I was expecting the Bills to be home underdogs against Cincinnati next week. Teams are 48-64 ATS since 2002 as road favorites before being home underdogs, while favorites are 67-111 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the Titans host the Dolphins next week). However, apparently the early line has the Bills as 1.5 point favorites over the Bengals, while this line is dangerously close to Tennessee being favored over the Bills.

That being said, I still do like the Titans a lot this week. The line movement isn’t as big of a deal as it could be for two reasons. For one, the line movement is likely a result of injuries, which is reasonable. Both Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy have been ruled out with injury, leaving special teamer Bobbie Dixon and Boom Herron, signed this week, to split snaps at running back. Safety Aaron Williams is expected back from a neck injury, but wide receiver Sammy Watkins is expected to miss his 2nd straight game and the Bills really struggled offensively last week at home against the Giants without him. The second reason that the line movement isn’t as huge of a deal as it could be is because it’s probably driven by sharp money on the Titans.

The reason I say that is because the Titans are the better team in the better spot and yet they’re underdogs. The Titans rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank 20th. It’s important to remember that it’s still early (and the Titans have only played 3 games), but the Titans improved themselves a lot this off-season, adding Marcus Mariota, Perrish Cox, Da’Norris Searcy, and Brian Orakpo and I do think they’re better than the Bills. They shouldn’t be home underdogs here, even home underdogs of only a point.

Plus, if the Titans win this game, the Bills could easily be home underdogs against the Bengals next week, which would open up those two aforementioned trends. Even if those trends aren’t technically in play, the logic behind them still holds. The Bills have a much bigger upcoming distraction, a home game against the Bengals, than the Titans do, as the Titans host the Dolphins next week. That hurts the Bills’ chances of going into Tennessee and beating a Tennessee team that is, at the very least, comparably good to, it not better than Buffalo. Even though they’re not my Pick of the Week anymore, I still feel comfortable money on the Titans here as 1 point home underdogs.

Tennessee Titans 19 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]