Bills

Buffalo Bills trade WR Steve Johnson to San Francisco 49ers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, 49ers, Bills, Uncategorized

Trade for Bills: Steve Johnson was as good as gone after the Bills traded up for Sammy Watkins, after trading for Mike Williams before the draft. The Bills will go into 2014 with Watkins, Robert Woods, and Mike Williams as their top-3 wide receivers and there wasn’t a place for Steve Johnson, who was scheduled to make 3.925 million between now and the end of the season. Given that, credit the Bills for somehow getting a 4th round pick (with the potential to turn into a 3rd round pick) in the 2015 draft. The Bills’ decision to trade two first rounders for Sammy Watkins remains puzzling, but this helps a little bit.

Grade: A

Trade for 49ers: I don’t get this move for the 49ers. They obviously needed wide receiver help, but they needed that wide receiver help way more in the long-term than the short-term. Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree are more than serviceable starters, but the long-term issue is that Crabtree is going into his contract year and Boldin is going into his age 34 season. They had an excess of 2014 draft picks and could have spent a couple on young wide receivers.

Instead, they traded a pick in next year’s draft for Steve Johnson, and a fairly high one at that. Johnson is obviously more of a help in the short-term than a rookie would have been, but the 49ers are going to get very expensive over the next two off-seasons so Johnson will have to really impress for the 49ers to pay him his 6.025 million dollar salary for 2015. They’re basically trading a 2015 mid round pick for a year of Steve Johnson at a 3.925 million dollar salary.

That’s way more than a rookie would have cost. That’s probably more than a 2nd round rookie would have cost over 4 years. That’s a big deal for a team as pressed against the cap as the 49ers. They’ll get some cap space freed up on June 1st when Carlos Rogers comes off their books, but they’ll need all of that, and maybe some more, to sign their rookie class and fill out their roster. They may have to restructure some contracts and push money forward to the future, which is a dangerous precedent. I understand the desire to win now, but the 49ers are still a young team that can be very good for the next 5-7 years. They don’t have to sell out for this season. It seems like a misuse of resources for a team that is going to have to properly use them over the next few off-seasons if they’re going to maintain their status as a perennial contender.

The one thing that could make this deal make more sense is if the 49ers do decide to let Frank Gore go. Frank Gore has a 6.45 million dollar cap number and the 49ers can save all of that on the cap if they were to let him go ahead of his age 31 season. Gore was still a productive player last season, but he hit a career low in yards per carry at 4.1 and his 16 catches were his lowest since his rookie year. He’s going into his age 31 season with 2518 career touches and, after drafting Carlos Hyde with a 2nd round pick that they might have originally used on a wide receiver, they may feel comfortable going into 2014 without him. He’s not worth that kind of money anymore, especially for a team this pressed against the cap, and the 49ers can get away with Carlos Hyde, Kendall Hunter, and Marcus Lattimore as their top-3 running backs going into 2014.

Grade: C

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Buffalo Bills sign MLB Brandon Spikes

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bills, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Brandon Spikes was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked middle linebacker last season, but that’s a little misleading. That was fueled solely by his run play as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ first ranked middle linebacker in terms of run grade by a mile, but he ranked 38th out of 55 middle linebackers in terms of coverage grade. He also played only 694 snaps as a part-time two-down player. He’s a pure base package player in a league that’s devaluing pure base package players, though he’s an excellent one at that.

This isn’t a new thing for him. In 2012, he graded out 9th among middle linebackers, including 1st as a run stopper, playing just 742 snaps. In 2011, he graded out 18th among middle linebackers, 19th in run grade, and played 364 snaps. In 2010, he graded out 9th among middle linebackers, 4th in run grade, and played 356 snaps. He also has a history of injury and issues with the coaching staff. All this being said, he is phenomenal at what he does and this contract (3.5 million over 1 year) is very reasonable for a Buffalo team that needs middle linebacker help. He’s a much better version of Arthur Moats, who played two-downs for the Bills last year, with safety Da’Norris Searcy coming down and playing linebacker in obvious passing situations.

Grade: A

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Buffalo Bills extend S Aaron Williams

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bills, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

So the Bills won’t give Jairus Byrd 9 million per year, but giving Aaron Williams 6.5 million is fine? This makes Aaron Williams the 11th highest paid safety in the NFL in terms of average salary. Williams, a 2011 2nd round pick, was a bust at cornerback in 2011 and 2012, grading out 87th out of 109 eligible cornerbacks in 2011 and 91st out of 113 eligible safeties in 2012. He reinvented himself as a solid safety in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked safety.

That being said, he’s still a one year wonder. Who is to say he doesn’t regress in 2014? Even if he doesn’t, he’s yet to prove he’s a top level safety. I find it hard to imagine anyone would find Williams to be worth 26 million or more over 4 years on the open market next off-season. Williams still had another year left on his rookie deal so I really don’t see the urgency to overpay him like this.

Grade: C-

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Buffalo Bills 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Bills, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Bills were the only team in the NFL to select a quarterback in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. While most teams, even the neediest at quarterback, shied away from spending a premium pick on anyone from the 2013 quarterback class, the Bills took EJ Manuel out of Florida State after a trade down. It was certainly a risk, but for a team searching for a franchise quarterback really since the Jim Kelly days, having last made the playoffs in 1999 and last won a playoff game in 1995, it was understandable. However, given the risk, the Bills season can be best evaluated on the basis of EJ Manuel’s development and, by those standards, 2013 was a failure.

Part of the problem was that Manuel missed too many valuable reps both in practice and in the game with injury. Manuel attempted just 306 of the Bills’ 522 pass attempts this season, as he missed 6 full games and parts of others with injury. He was also pretty ineffective when on the field, getting outplayed by backup Thad Lewis, who was on the practice squad to start the season. Lewis completed 59.2% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 52 yards and a touchdown.

Meanwhile, Manuel completed 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked quarterback. As a result, the Bills were 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 66.27% rate, in spite of a decent running game. It’s obviously way too early to make any determination on Manuel’s future, but Bills fans can’t feel happy with his progress thus far. If he continues struggling into next season, they may have to give Thad Lewis a longer look. At the very least, Lewis is a decent backup.

Lewis’ emergence as a decent backup wasn’t the only positive from the Bills’ 2013 season as they had one of the league’s best defenses this season. Not only were they 2nd in the NFL in both sacks and interceptions, but they also rank 6th in rate of moving the chains against, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.58% rate. They were actually better than their 6-10 record would have suggested, in spite of their weaknesses on offense, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential and posting a -49 point differential. Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, Jairus Byrd, Mario Williams were all deserving Pro-Bowlers, while Kiko Alonso, their 2nd round pick, is in the running for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

The bad news is the Bills lost the architect behind this defense as defensive coordinator Mike Pettine took the Cleveland Browns’ head coaching job. The Bills have talent independent of him and they’re going to be in good hands under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, but Pettine was really the one to get the most out of them. They could also lose stud safety Jairus Byrd in free agency. They’ll have to continue playing like a top-10 unit on defense if they have plans to make the playoffs in 2014. For right now, it looks like they’re headed towards another year of mediocrity unless the offense can take a huge step forward.

Positional Needs

Guard

Andy Levitre is one of the best guards in the NFL, but the Bills let him go last off-season as a free agent. Their efforts to replace him were a train wreck. Colin Brown got the first crack at the job, starting 5 games and, in spite of his limited playing time, he finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked guard. Doug Legursky then took over and he was better, but only by default. He finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 63rd ranked guard out of 81 eligible. If you combined them, they would have been the 2nd worst guard in the league last year. They need to address this position this off-season.

Offensive Tackle

Offensive tackle is another problem on their offensive line. Right tackle Erik Pears could be upgraded, especially as he heads into his age 32 contract year. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 55th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible. They could draft someone like Auburn’s Greg Robinson with the 9th overall pick and then move Pears to left guard for the short-term. They could also draft an offensive tackle and slot him at left guard for the time being until Pears’s contract runs out. Cutting Pears could also be an option.

Tight End

Scott Chandler is a free agent this off-season. He was their leader in receptions and receiving yardage last season, in addition to his work as a blocker, so he’d obviously need to be replaced if they were unable to bring him. No other tight end caught more than 5 passes this season for them. They could also add another tight end early in the draft to bring in another receiver to the mix. Chandler is more of an inline tight end and they don’t have a true pass catching tight end.

Safety

Jairus Byrd is a free agent. If they aren’t able to bring him back, they’ll need to replace him at safety. The Bills would frequently use 3 safeties in obvious passing situations with Jairus Byrd, Aaron Williams, and Da’Norris Searcy who is the biggest of the bunch and would often play linebacker. Everyone would have to move up a role if Byrd left unreplaced.

Wide Receiver

No Bills receiver had more than 600 yards receiving last year. Steve Johnson could be a cap casualty next off-season if he continues to disappoint, while youngsters Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, and TJ Graham have yet to develop into #1 receivers. Robert Woods, a 2013 2nd round pick, could be a solid #2 receiver long-term, but Goodwin, a 2013 3rd round pick, hasn’t shown much on offense, while TJ Graham, a 2012 3rd round pick, has been awful when on the field. They could add someone else to the mix this off-season.

Kicker

Dan Carpenter nailed 91.7% of his kicks this season and his career kicking percentage is 83.8%. However, he’s a free agent this off-season. They’ll need to replace him if he can’t be re-signed. Dustin Hopkins is an option to replace him because they drafted him last season, but he struggled so much in training camp and the pre-season that they brought in Dan Carpenter. Hopkins also missed all of the season with a groin injury suffered in September.

Key Free Agents

S Jairus Byrd

Jairus Byrd is not just one of the top safeties in the NFL, but one of the top defensive players at any position. He’s what everyone thinks Earl Thomas is (not that Thomas is bad by any stretch of the imagination). Byrd was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked safety in 2011 and 2nd ranked in 2012. He ranked 8th in 2013, which wasn’t as good, but he missed a few games with injury to start the year so that had something to do with it. Upon his return, he was just as good as he was before the injury. The Bills now have a choice between franchise tagging him for the 2nd straight year or letting him hit the open market, where he could become the highest paid safety in the NFL. Either way, he’ll get paid.

TE Scott Chandler

Scott Chandler is not explosive at all, but he’s a great blocker at 6-7 265 and he’s also a good possession receiver and end zone threat, in spite of his inability to get separation. Over the past 3 seasons as a starter, he’s caught 134 passes for 1615 yards and 14 touchdowns in 45 games. Last season was the best season of his career, as he caught 53 passes for 655 yards and 2 touchdowns, reaching career highs in receptions and yardage, in spite of inconsistent quarterback play on a run heavy team. He was the team’s leader in both receptions and receiving yardage. He won’t command a ton of money on the open market, but the Bills will definitely need to replace him if he leaves.

K Dan Carpenter

Dan Carpenter was cut by the Dolphins before this season, but it was for financial reasons, not because of his performance. He was then cut by both the Cardinals and Jets, who brought him in purely as competition, but he caught on with the Bills, where he nailed 91.7% of his kicks. His career kicking percentage is 83.8% and it shouldn’t be hard for him to find work this off-season. My guess is the Bills want to bring him back.

Cap Casualty Candidates

QB Kevin Kolb

Yeah remember this guy? He’s still on the roster. The Bills signed Kevin Kolb to a two-year deal in the off-season to give them a stopgap for their rookie quarterback. However, Kolb continued to be injury prone and suffered a significant concussion in the pre-season that not only knocked him out for the season, but potentially for his career. He reportedly didn’t know his own name or where he was after that hit. There’s no chance the Bills keep him on the roster at a 3.1 million dollar salary. The Bills would save 3.1 million on the cap by cutting him and there’s a very good chance he just retires for his health. Hopefully he can live a normal life.

OT Erik Pears

Erik Pears isn’t terrible, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 55th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible and he’s heading into his age 32 contract year. The Bills can save 2.9 million in cash and cap space by cutting him and they’d have their choice of upgrades over him with the 9th overall pick. He could also be moved to guard.

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (11-4)

I’m torn on this. On one hand, New England hasn’t been doing a lot of winning pretty this season. Of their 11 wins, only 4 have come by more than a touchdown and one of those, a 27-17 win over Miami, was a lot closer than the final score would suggest. On top of that, just 5 of the Patriots’ wins have come by more than a field goal as they have a ridiculous 6 wins by a touchdown or less. Considering this line is 9 points, that matters. Even last week when the Patriots beat the Ravens 41-7, they only had 20 points before garbage time and two return touchdowns. The first down battle (21 to 19 New England) was much closer than the final score.

Because of this, the Patriots only rank 10th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 74.11 rate, as opposed to 71.03% for their opponents, a differential of 3.08%. The Bills, meanwhile, come in 18th, moving the chains at a 66.03% rate, as opposed to 66.88% for their opponents, a differential of -0.85%. That suggests this line should be closer to 7, rather than 9. The Patriots have also had issues covering large spreads like this recently, going 8-16 ATS as 7.5+ point favorites since 2010.

However, on the other hand, the Bills are in a terrible spot on the road coming off of a blowout win as divisional home underdogs. Teams are 28-55 ATS since 1989 on the road off of a 10+ point home win as divisional underdogs. It makes sense, as teams tend to have hangover effects off of that type of big win, which can hurt their focus. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bills and fading the public, but I’m not confident. I’ll just hope for a touchdown game.

New England Patriots 24 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +9

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Believe or not, the Bills have actually been very good at home. It doesn’t show in their home record (3-4), but they are 5-2 ATS at home, 5-1 ATS if you ignore what was essentially a neutral site game in Toronto and 5-1 ATS at home dogs. Given that they’ve been underdogs in all 6 of their games in Buffalo, their 3-3 record there seems a lot better. They’ve had a very tough schedule, facing the Patriots, Panthers, Chiefs, Bengals, four likely playoff teams who currently all have 9-5 or better records, the Ravens, another possible playoff team who is currently 8-6, and the Jets. The Jets were the easiest team they’ve faced at home and the Bills won that game by 20.

Of those 3 losses, only one came by more than a field goal and that was the game in which Jeff Tuel started against Kansas City, a 10 point loss in which the Chiefs scored 14 points off of return touchdowns. Why is everyone so sure the Dolphins will beat them by more than a field goal? The public is all over Miami as 3 point favorites and I love fading heavy public leans whenever it makes sense, as the odds makers always make money in the long run. It certainly makes sense here.

EJ Manuel is out for this one, but I don’t think Thad Lewis is a serious downgrade or anything. In fact, the game in which the Bills took the Bengals to overtime in Buffalo was started by Thad Lewis. He also beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this season. EJ Manuel has more long-term upside, but for this season, I think Thad Lewis is at least a comparable quarterback, if not a better quarterback. EJ Manuel actually has a lower QB rating on the season than Lewis, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, a QB rating of 77.7. Thad Lewis, meanwhile, is completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 6.33 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, a QB rating of 80.2.

Besides, it’s not like offense is the reason why Buffalo has had any success this season. They move the chains at a 66.21% rate, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their defense, however, has been incredible, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.34% rate. Their defensive line has especially been good (league leading 49 sacks), which is going to be trouble for the Dolphins, whose weakness is their offensive line (league leading 51 sacks allowed). Ryan Tannehill was under pressure on 16 of 39 dropbacks in their last matchup (41.0%) and Tannehill completed passes on just 5 of those dropbacks, a big part of the reason why the Bills were able to prevail.

That rate of moving the chains differential of -2.13% is 21st in the NFL. The Dolphins are actually 22nd, moving the chains at a 68.35% rate, as opposed to 70.95% for their opponents, a differential of -2.60%. That actually suggests the Bills should be favored by 3.5 points. Now, you can’t just follow that blindly. I don’t think the Bills and Dolphins are exactly comparable teams nor do I think the Bills are a better team than the Dolphins. The Dolphins are playing better football of late. However, it’s not something you can ignore. The Bills are better than their record and the Dolphins are better than their record. DVOA backs this up as the Dolphins rank 18th, while the Bills rank 23rd. The Dolphins don’t deserve to be 3 point favorites here, even before you take into account the Bills’ home dominance.

There are a couple of reasons why the Bills aren’t a bigger play. For one, the Bills are in a bad spot as they have to face the Patriots next week in New England, which could be a distraction for them. Teams are 26-40 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. The Dolphins, meanwhile, don’t really have an upcoming distraction as they face the Jets next week in Miami. Teams are 39-22 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Still, there’s enough here for me to be fairly confident in the Bills, as long as we’re getting field goal protection.

Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (4-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)

The Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5, including 3 straight, which somehow is tied for the losing winning streak in the AFC and the 2nd longest in the NFL behind only Philadelphia (5 games). How can they be underdogs at home against the Bills right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Jaguars as a public underdog. I love fading the public at any chance I get, as long as it makes sense, but I especially love it when it’s a public underdog. Whenever the public thinks one team is going to win and the odds makers think another team is going to win, it usually doesn’t end well for the public. Check out the latest NFL free bets.

I especially love it when the public is wrong about loving the underdog. Sure, the Jaguars have 4 wins, the same amount as the Bills, but I’d still argue this is the worst team in the NFL. There’s a reason they are home underdogs here. All 4 of their wins have come by a touchdown or less, while all 9 of their losses came by double digits. Their point differential of -171 is still by far the worst in the NFL, with only Washington (-128) coming close. They are still dead last in DVOA and by a significant margin over 31st ranked Oakland. Even in weighted DVOA, which weighs their more recent successes higher, they are still dead last, though the gap is closer.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, they are also dead last, as they move them at a 63.14% rate, as opposed to 75.70% for their opponents, a -12.56% differential. No one else has a differential worse than -6.55% (New York Jets). They may have 4 wins, but I don’t think they would have defeated any of those teams on a neutral field 51 times out of 100, including Houston, who they beat twice. I don’t think there’s any team in the NFL they’d defeat 51 times out of 100. Making matters worse, Maurice Jones-Drew, arguably their best offensive player, could be out for this one.

Not only do the Jaguars not deserve to be favorites, as the public thinks, but we’re actually getting significant line value with the Bills here. This line is too small. The Bills rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 65.35% rate, as opposed to 68.16% for their opponents, a differential of -2.81%. That suggests this line should be around 6.5 and 7, instead of 1, and that doesn’t even take into account Maurice Jones-Drew’s potential absence or any situational factors.

The Jaguars are also in a bad situation as home dogs before being home dogs, which they almost definitely will be next week with Tennessee coming to town, as the odds makers rightfully don’t respect them. Teams are 68-90 ATS in that spot since 2002. Even worse, they will probably be home underdogs of more than 3, considering they are underdogs of 1 for Buffalo, they were underdogs of 3.5 for Houston, and they were underdogs of 12 in Tennessee a few weeks ago. Teams are 35-66 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012.

They wouldn’t be focused enough to pull this upset even if they were good enough, which they aren’t. I’m just worried that the Bills could be a little distracted by Miami coming to town next week. Teams are 17-29 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being divisional home underdogs, which they could be next week. However, they also might not be and I like the Bills enough anyway. We’re also talking about a very small road favorite before being a very small home underdog (if they are). Buffalo essentially just needs to win straight up here so I have a good deal of confidence in them.

Buffalo Bills 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Buffalo -1

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-8)

The Buccaneers are favored here this week, something that has been a very rare occurrence for them this season. They were kind of favored against the Falcons a few weeks ago, favored by 1 point in some places, with the line being even in some other places and Atlanta being favored by a 1 point or two at the beginning of the week. However, with the exception of that, the last time they were favored was at home for Arizona week 4 and the only other instance was week 1 in New York for the Jets, both non-covers.

This is an obvious sandwich game situation, as the Bills as favorites in between a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. The Buccaneers lost in Carolina last week and host San Francisco next week. Teams are 76-99 ATS in that spot since 2008. It gets worse for the Buccaneers because teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 6 in favor of San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are in a much better situation with only a trip to Jacksonville on deck. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being home underdogs since 2008. The underdog has no distractions to compete with a favorite, who could be distracted. I know the Bills will be road favorites and the Buccaneers will be home favorites, but the same logic should work and it might be an even more powerful situation. There’s just not enough of a sample size with that specific situation as this is just the 10th time it’s happened since 1989 (5-4 ATS). Going off of that, teams are 33-51 ATS before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

The Bills are also the better team. They move the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponent, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are 28th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 71% for themselves. It’s not enough that we’re getting significant line value, but it’s definitely worth noting. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Bills, but they definitely seem like the right side.

Buffalo Bills 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7)

The Falcons came into last week on a 4 game losing streak, having lost those last 4 by a combined 74 points. However, they were able to play the Saints very close at home in Atlanta in a 17-13 loss. Some people might believe that means they’ll be better going forward. I think it’s the opposite. I think this was a team that was not used to losing like this, so they quit on the season, with the exception of a huge home game against divisional rival New Orleans, which was essentially their Super Bowl. Now that they lost that, they will probably be pretty flat for the rest of the season, especially for a team like Buffalo. Given that, they could be in a lot of trouble on the road here, where they have yet to cover thus far this season, especially since they have a bigger game in Green Bay next week. If Rodgers returns, they could be double digit underdogs and teams are 34-69 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs.

The Falcons’ offense is actually pretty good, moving the chains at a 77% rate, as Matt Ryan is doing a very good job this season despite not having any help offensively. However, their defense might be the worst in the entire NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 82% rate. That differential is 26th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 22nd in the NFL, moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. They’re as healthy as they’ve been all season right now. Stephon Gilmore, Jairus Byrd, and EJ Manuel have all returned, while CJ Spiller could be more explosive after an extra week to rest his ankle, off of the bye. Steve Johnson and Robert Woods are also expected back this week. There’s no reason they should only be favored by 3.5 points here. That suggests they are barely better than the Falcons, which isn’t true.

The Bills have also been very good at home this season, beating the Ravens and the Panthers, almost beating the Bengals, Chiefs, and Patriots, and blowing out the Jets, 5 teams that are all currently in the playoff race and a combined 42-24 on the season. The Falcons are by far the easiest team they’ve faced at home this season and they could easily blow them out like they did to the Jets. The only concern is this game is up the road a little bit in Toronto, so it’s not a true home game. It’ll still be mostly Buffalo fans, but they haven’t had a ton of success in Toronto in the past so playing there could conceivably screw with their good home mojo. I’m still pretty confident in them though.

Buffalo Bills 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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