Broncos

Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers: Super Bowl 50 Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Panthers, Super Bowl 50 Pick, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (14-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (17-1) at San Francisco

Both of these teams finished with the #1 seed in their respective conference and won two home playoff games to get here. However, they’ve still had drastically different seasons and one team has been significantly more impressive this year. While Denver finished the year 12-4 with just 3 wins by more than a touchdown in the regular season and post-season combined, Carolina finished 15-1 with 10 wins by more than a touchdown between the regular season and post-season.

Denver might have the best defense in the NFL, finishing the regular season 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, despite outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware, safety TJ Ward, and safety Darian Stewart all missing at least some time with injury. All three will play in this one on a Denver team that is remarkably healthy, only missing one week 1 starter (left tackle Ty Sambrailo). However, the Panthers also have a great defense (4th in rate of moving the chains allowed) and are pretty healthy too, just missing cornerback Charles Tillman, cornerback Bene Benwikere, and left guard Amini Silatolu from week 1, none of whom were key parts of the team. Outside linebacker Thomas Davis is a key part of their team and he did break his arm two weeks ago in the NFC Championship, but he’s going to play anyway.

Davis’ effectiveness is of concern, but not enough that the Panthers aren’t the significantly more talented of these two teams. In addition to a great defense, the Panthers also have a great offense, led by likely NFL MVP quarterback Cam Newton. They finished 4th in rate of moving the chains on the season, allowing them to finish the regular season 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Broncos, meanwhile, finished 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to an offense that ranked 30th in rate of moving the chains. Led by soon-to-be-40-year-old Peyton Manning, their offense is the biggest reason why they have had so many more near losses than the Panthers and it should be the biggest reason they lose this game by at least a touchdown. I don’t see them scoring more than one touchdown. I jumped on the line at 4.5 right after the championship game 2 weeks ago and I would still bet money at 5.5 or 6.

Carolina Panthers 21 Denver Broncos 10

Pick against the spread: Carolina -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2015 AFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4)

The Patriots lost in Denver earlier this year, but the Patriots were without leading wide receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and also lost top receiving threat Rob Gronkowski and talented linebacker Dont’a Hightower with injuries in that game. Even still, the Patriots were leading 21-7 in the 4th quarter and likely would have won if not for a phantom holding call around the goal line and a muffed punt by Chris Harper, who was only returning punts because both Edelman and Amendola were out.

Despite very nearly winning, the Patriots did not move the ball well in that game, as they moved the chains at a 59.38% rate (as opposed to 69.23% for the Broncos). Two of New England’s touchdowns came on drives where they started with great field position, while the other one came on a long touchdown reception by backup running Brandon Bolden out of the backfield. That’s despite the fact that the Broncos were down DeMarcus Ware and then lost safety TJ Ward to injury in that game. Ware and Ward are keys on a Denver defense that finished the season 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed and both will play in this one, though talented cornerback Chris Harris could be limited with a serious shoulder injury.

However, as talented as Denver is defensively, the Patriots should have more offensive success in this one with key players returning from injury. In the 9 regular season games Julian Edelman played, the Patriots moved the chains at a 79.81% rate, as opposed to 65.42% in their other 7 regular season games. Last week, with Edelman healthy for the first time in 2 months, they moved the chains at an 82.76% rate against a solid Kansas City defense. That’s not all Edelman, as the Patriots have also gotten other players back from injury that missed time during that 7 game stretch (Gronkowski, Amendola, Sebastian Vollmer, Josh Kline, etc), but there’s no denying that he’s such a huge part of their offense and they’re a different team when he’s out there, one that’s much better than Denver.

The Broncos finished the regular season 11th in rate of moving the chains differential and then had an underwhelming home victory against the very banged up Pittsburgh Steelers in their first playoff game last week. Just 3 of Denver’s wins this season have come by more than a touchdown so their record is kind of a farce. Their defense is incredible, but they have major problems offensively, finishing the regular season 30th in rate of moving the chains. Peyton Manning, by most measures, was the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots were one of the best teams in the NFL before injuries struck and are now relatively. They’re far more well-rounded than the Broncos. We know about their offense when everyone is healthy, but their defense is strong too, arguably stronger than any Patriots defense since 2007, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

Teams tend to cover in the playoffs in a same season, same site, non-divisional rematch against a team that beat them previously anyway, going 31-15 ATS since 2001. On top of that, the Patriots themselves tend to cover in same season revenge games in the Bill Belichick era (since 2000), going 14-5 ATS in those type of games over that time period. All this being said, I can’t put money on New England as 3.5 point road favorites, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. For that reason, this is only a low confidence pick, though if the line drops before gametime, I’ll definitely reconsider.

New England Patriots 24 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against spread: New England -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: 2015 AFC Divisional Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Pittsburgh entered the post-season as a trendy sleeper pick to go all the way, thanks to a high flying offense led by arguably the best quarterback/pass catcher duo in the NFL in Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. They finished 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 12 games that Ben Roethlisberger played, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 games he didn’t. Also in those 12 games, Antonio Brown caught 119 passes for 1599 yards and 10 touchdowns, an unbelievable 159/2132/13 pace over 16 games by a player who once again finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked wide receiver. He might be the most valuable offensive player in the league, excluding quarterbacks.

The Steelers won on the road in their first playoff game last week, but they may have won the battle, but lost the war. Antonio Brown will have to miss this game with a concussion, one that, ironically, was suffered on the hit that drew the personal foul penalty that started the sequence of events that led to the Steelers’ improbable late comeback, moving Pittsburgh from mid-field to easy field goal range quickly, with time running out. On top of that, Ben Roethlisberger will play this week despite torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. The gutty effort is commendable, but it’s unclear how well he’ll be able to throw the ball downfield or if he’ll even be able to finish the game.

Roethlisberger and Brown share the injury report with running back DeAngelo Williams, who will miss his 2nd straight game with injury. He was already filling in for Le’Veon Bell, who has been on IR since week 8 with a knee injury, leaving the Steelers with undrafted 2nd year player Fitzgerald Touissant and journeyman Jordan Todman at running back. Also on IR since mid-season is left tackle Kelvin Beachum, who’s been out since week 6 with a torn ACL,while center Maurkice Pouncey has been out all year with a broken leg. Suddenly, the Steelers’ sleeper hopes seem a lot slimmer.

However, I have no idea why they’re 9 point underdogs in Denver. The Broncos might be the #1 seed, but they have their own problems, especially at quarterback, where neither veteran Peyton Manning nor the inexperienced Brock Osweiler have been able to seize control of the job. Manning played horribly to start the season before going down for close to 2 months with a foot injury, but Osweiler did not impress in his absence and was benched for Manning mid-game week 17. Manning led the comeback effort to clinch the #1 seed, but most of the Broncos’ yardage after he entered the game was on the ground, so it’s tough to know if the 39-year-old future Hall-of-Famer actually has anything left in the tank. Regardless, he’ll get the start this week.

They’ve moved the chains at a 68.66% rate in Osweiler’s 6 starts, a 67.49% rate in Manning’s 8 starts, and a 64.71% rate in the 2 games where they’ve both played. Osweiler’s number looks a little better, but most, if not all, of that can be attributed to a running game that’s recently improved. Any way you look at it, the Broncos have struggled to move the ball this season, almost no matter what, thanks to poor quarterback play, an inconsistent running game, and a weak offensive line. Despite being the #1 seed, the Broncos rank just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their 12-4 record is kind of a farce because they have just 3 wins by more than a touchdown, so I don’t know why Pittsburgh couldn’t keep this one close to. On top of that, home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round. Give me the 9 points.

Denver Broncos 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +9

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-11) at Denver Broncos (11-4)

The Chargers are just 4-11, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-7 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-8 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -8 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -6.5 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -2.8 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents by 344 yards.

None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 9 of 15 games and could easily be 6-9, 7-8, 8-7, or even 9-6. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team. They don’t have a tremendous ATS record on the season because they were pretty highly valued to start the season, but they’ve covered 4 of their last 5.

They’ve also been way better on the road than at home. At home, they were just 2-6 ATS this season, as they seemingly have no fans. As a result, their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they’ve essentially had to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles at this point. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents, as nice as San Diego weather is.

Meanwhile, on the road, they are 5-2 ATS on the season, with one of those non-covers being a 5 point loss as 3 point underdogs in Cincinnati week 2, against a Bengals team that turned out to be one of the best in the NFL. They have just one road loss by more than a touchdown, relevant considering they’re underdogs of 9 points here in Denver. If they can keep it within a touchdown against the likes of the Bengals, Packers, and Chiefs, they can do so here in Denver. All 3 of those teams rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential than the Broncos, who come in 12th.

Despite a 7 game lead over them in the standings, the Broncos actually rank one spot below the Chargers in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve benefitted an 8-3 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, have lost the rate of moving the chains battle in 5 of 15 games, and have just three victories of more than a touchdown. They beat the Chargers by 14 earlier this year, but that was in San Diego and that would have been a touchdown game if not for a return touchdown. The Broncos had just one offensive touchdown in that game. This figures to be a pretty close game, so getting 9 points with the visitor seems like a good deal.

It does hurt the Chargers that they’re coming off of a road overtime loss, as teams are 81-105 ATS in that spot since 1989. However, they’re also in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 130-94 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 225-227 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 321-438 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.75 points per game. Road underdogs in their 2nd of two road games off of an overtime loss are 21-20 ATS since 1989, so those two trends cancel out. It’s just too many points to pass on.

Denver Broncos 17 San Diego Chargers 13

Pick against the spread: San Diego +9

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Broncos, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) at Denver Broncos (10-4)

The Brock Osweiler era got off to a good start in Denver, but his play has regressed in recent weeks, to the point where the difference in their offense’s efficiency between Osweiler starting and when a hobbled, aged Peyton Manning was starting early in the year is no longer significant. In Manning’s 9 starts, they moved the chains at a 66.43% rate, as opposed to 67.86% in Osweiler’s 5 starts. The Broncos would probably like to give Manning another shot and see if maybe he has enough left in the tank for a playoff run after a month off, but it doesn’t sound like his foot is anywhere near healthy enough for him to play, so it’ll be Osweiler again for the Broncos this week.

Ultimately, it might not matter who is under center because neither one of them is that good, plus their issues on the offensive line and in the running game will persist regardless. The Broncos’ defense will have to keep carrying them, as they have thus far. Despite an offense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains, the Broncos rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to a defense that ranks 3rd in rate of moving the chains allowed.

The Bengals rank significantly higher overall, coming in 5th, but they’ve also had next to no injuries on the season up until the last few weeks. Now they’re missing quarterback Andy Dalton, tight end Tyler Eifert, and safety George Iloka, three key players who are all expected to be out again this week. The Bengals did win by 10 in San Francisco last week without that trio, but the 49ers are the worst team in the NFL and the Bengals only won the rate of moving the chains differential by 3.14%, as the 49ers did end up making it closer than the final score suggested.

It’s tough to really know how much worse the Bengals are without that trio, which makes this game tough to pick either way, especially since both teams should be equally focused with easy games on deck for both (Cincinnati hosts Baltimore week 17 and the Broncos host the Raiders). I’m going to take the 3.5 points for a no confidence pick because a field goal game is likely. Close to 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and close to 1 in 4 are decided by a field goal or less.

Denver Broncos 16 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

The Steelers are on fire right now. They’ve been fantastic since Ben Roethlisberger came back from injury. They lost to Cincinnati and Seattle, but both of those games were close and both of those opponents are very tough. They also beat Cincinnati in the rematch last week (though they were definitely helped by Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert going down with injury), beat Oakland, and blew out the Colts (45-10) and Browns (30-9).

Prior to Roethlisberger going down, they lost in New England (another close loss to a tough opponent), blew out the 49ers (43-18) and beat the Rams. In the 9 games Roethlisberger has played, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 75.83% rate, as opposed to 63.64% in the 4 games he missed. When he’s healthy, this is one of the better offenses in the NFL and their defense is better than it was last season. They rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential and are even more talented than that suggests.

I’d go as far as to argue they’re a top-5 team (remember, they were leading the Bengals in Cincinnati even before Dalton and Eifert went down), but this line is out of control. The Steelers, favored by 4.5 last week in the early line, are now favored by a whole touchdown. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. The Broncos are a good team as well, ranking 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, so we’re getting line value with them.

The Broncos did lose at home to the Raiders last week and I feel like a lot of the line movement was because of that loss, but the Broncos held the Raiders to negative yardage in the first half and 8 first downs in the whole game (as opposed to 10 punts) and won the rate of moving the chains differential 57.12% to 47.64%. The Broncos lost by a field goal because they turned it over twice (while the Raiders didn’t) and fumbled in their own end zone (for a safety). They’ll be fine going forward.

They’re also healthier this week. Middle linebacker Danny Trevathan will return from a 1 game absence and outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware is in his 2nd game back, after missing 5 games. The Broncos have a great defense, one capable of slowing down the Steelers’ offense more than arguably any other team because they have great cornerbacks who can match up with the Steelers’ talented wide receivers. I’m not too confident in the Broncos, but they should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Denver +7

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

The Broncos lost at home 29-13 to the Chiefs week 10, but it turns out that bottoming out was exactly what the Broncos needed. Peyton Manning played so poorly in that game, completing 5 of 20 passes for 35 yards and 4 interceptions, that the Broncos shut him down so he could heal from some injuries. Brock Osweiler has been an improvement over 3 games, all wins, while Manning waits in limbo. They have a decision to make down the road, but, so far, the Broncos have moved the chains at a 70.71% rate in Osweiler’s 3 starts, as opposed to 66.43% in Manning’s 9 starts.

The Broncos also have the league’s #3 defense, in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed. They’re kind of banged up on that side of the ball right now, missing linebacker Danny Trevathan and safety TJ Ward, but they’re coming off of a dominant performance in San Diego and this team, right now with Osweiler under center, is more talented than their rank in rate of moving the chains differential, which is 8th. The Raiders, meanwhile, are less talented than their rank, 13th. They get center Rodney Hudson back this week, which is big, but their defense has been pretty weak since losing defensive end Justin Tuck for the season with an injury (week 5) and outside linebacker Aldon Smith for the season with a suspension (week 10). This line seems pretty appropriate at a touchdown and neither team is in a great spot or anything, so I’m just going to fade the public and take the points for a no confidence pick.

Denver Broncos 23 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Oakland +7

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (9-2) at San Diego Chargers (3-8)

The Chargers’ 3-8 record is one of the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their record is largely the result of a 3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -6 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, a -8.2 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -4.5 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 11 games and could easily be 5-6, 6-5, or even 7-4. They rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 3 spots behind the 10th ranked Denver Broncos, who they play this week.

The Chargers are also healthier than they’ve been all season, as tight end Antonio Gates, tight end Ladarius Green, safety Eric Weddle, left guard Orlando Franklin, left tackle King Dunlap, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, right guard DJ Fluker, and wide receiver Keenan Allen have missed a combined 30 games this season with injury. Fluker, Dunlap, and Allen are out, but other than Ladarius Green, who is listed as probable, none of the other guys even come up on the injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, lost safety TJ Ward to a high ankle sprain last week and will be without outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware for the 4th straight game. Those are two key missing defenders on a defense that’s otherwise been really healthy this season.

Making matters worse for the Broncos this week is that they’re coming off of a huge, emotional overtime victory over the New England Patriots, as home underdogs. They could be overconfident coming off of that game, as teams are 43-71 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs and 8-19 ATS since 2002 off of win as home underdogs in overtime. Despite that, and the fact that the Chargers are underrated and this line is too high, and that the Chargers are getting healthier while the Broncos are going the other direction, the public is still all over the Broncos, as 4 point road favorites. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

There are three reasons why this is just a medium confidence pick and not a Pick of the Week. One, the line did move from last week to this week, so the Chargers are only 4 point underdogs now. We’re still getting value with them, but it’s less and I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. It doesn’t make sense here, but I’d like the Chargers more at 6, though close to 3 in 10 games are decided by four points or fewer.

Two, the Broncos are playing better football over the past two weeks thanks to the play of Brock Osweiler. Osweiler hasn’t been amazing or anything, but he’s been a noticeable upgrade over Peyton Manning, who looked done before going down with a foot injury. Osweiler has completed 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions and the Broncos moved the chains at a 70.62% rate in his 2 starts, as opposed to 66.43% in Manning’s 9. That definitely offsets their defensive injuries somewhat.

Three, the Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. The Chargers are 1-5 ATS at home this season, as opposed to 3-2 ATS on the road. They’re still my pick though. This is a classic trap game for the Broncos, banged up, coming off of a tough and hugely important home win, on the road, with everyone singing their praises, against an underrated team that’s gotten healthier.

San Diego Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-0) at Denver Broncos (8-2)

This line was 5.5 a week ago on the early line, in favor of New England in Denver, but now New England is only favored by a field goal. I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and where these two teams rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests that New England should be favored by at least a little bit more than this, as the undefeated Patriots rank 2nd and Denver ranks 14th.

However, the Patriots are so banged up right now. After losing Dion Lewis for the season with a torn ACL 3 weeks ago and Julian Edelman for the regular season with a broken foot 2 weeks ago, Danny Amendola went down with a knee sprain last week against the Bills, a big loss considering he was having a great game in Edelman’s absence before he went down. Amendola’s injury is far less serious than the other two, but he’s considered a gametime decision at best for this game.

Even if he does play, the Patriots’ offense really didn’t seem the same without Lewis and Edelman last week at home against the Bills. Going to Denver to play the Broncos, who might have the best defense in the NFL, isn’t going to be any easier. And if Amendola is out, the Patriots would be left with Brandon LaFell, Chris Harper, and Keshawn Martin as their top-3 wide receivers. They obviously still have tight end Rob Gronkowski, but he becomes a lot easier to cover if there isn’t anyone else on the field you have to worry about one-on-one. On the defensive side of the ball, key linebacker Jamie Collins is expected to miss his 4th straight game, as he recovers from an illness.

The Broncos do have some injuries of their own, as outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware will miss his 3rd straight game and guard Evan Mathis is expected to be a gametime decision, but their injuries are nowhere near as debilitating as the Patriots’ injuries. And, of course, quarterback Peyton Manning is out with a foot injury, but he was playing so poorly before the injury that backup Brock Osweiler is an upgrade for an offense that hasn’t really been able to do much to support their dominant defense thus far this season. Osweiler probably isn’t anything more than a competent quarterback at this stage in his development, but he showed enough in the first start of his career last week in Chicago to suggest he’s an upgrade over the aging Manning and someone who gives the Broncos the best chance to win now. Because of that and the Patriots injuries, the line movement down to a field goal is legitimate.

The Broncos are also in a great spot, with a trip to San Diego on deck. They’re expected to be 6 point favorites, according to the early line, and teams are 73-52 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 6+. On top of that, home underdogs are 74-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites, since 2002. I don’t really love the Broncos in this one or anything, but we’re getting a field goal with them and close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I’m confident enough to put money on the Broncos.

Denver Broncos 17 New England Patriots 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Broncos, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

The Broncos are in a really tough spot here this week, with probably their toughest and biggest game of the season on deck, a clash with Tom Brady and the currently undefeated New England Patriots in Denver, a game in which the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 point road favorites, per the early line. Teams tend to struggle before being huge home underdogs, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. Teams are 43-80 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 22-52 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Making matters even worse is the fact that the Broncos are road favorites here in Chicago. Teams are 19-36 ATS since 2010 as road favorites before being home underdogs, as it’s understandably very hard to focus on an inferior opponent when you have such a tough upcoming game.

Speaking of the Broncos being road favorites, I think this line is way off, even with the Broncos only being favored by a point. Denver, despite their record, ranks 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their defense has been strong, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, though they haven’t been quite as good in the last 2 weeks without starting defensive end DeMarcus Ware, who will miss his 3rd straight game this week. The offense is what’s been the problem for the Broncos, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains.

The Broncos switch from Peyton Manning, who is old and banged up, to Brock Osweiler this week. Manning is officially listed as out with a foot injury, but he’s no lock to regain his job when healthy. He was playing so poorly (59.9%, 6.77 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions) that Osweiler could easily be an upgrade and the variance and unpredictably of an inexperienced quarterback scares me when betting against one, because I just don’t know how good they are, but Osweiler will be hamstrung by the same weak running game and offensive line as Manning.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been much better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy, as he’s playing some of the best football of his career under ex-Manning offensive coordinator Adam Gase. They move the chains at a 73.39% rate in the 7 games where Cutler has been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Both wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte are gametime decisions for this one, ahead of a Thursday Night trip to Green Bay, but Jeffery is expected to play and Forte’s replacement, Jeremy Langford, has been strong in his absence over the past 2 weeks. I don’t like that they play again in 4 days, but their opponent this week is tough enough that they should be focused and I don’t think they should be favored by any less than 4 points. Instead, Denver is favored by 1 in a bad spot. Chicago is my Pick of the Week.

Chicago Bears 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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