Broncos

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Broncos, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-2) at Chicago Bears (4-5)

The Broncos are in a really tough spot here this week, with probably their toughest and biggest game of the season on deck, a clash with Tom Brady and the currently undefeated New England Patriots in Denver, a game in which the Patriots are expected to be 5.5 point road favorites, per the early line. Teams tend to struggle before being huge home underdogs, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. Teams are 43-80 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 22-52 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Making matters even worse is the fact that the Broncos are road favorites here in Chicago. Teams are 19-36 ATS since 2010 as road favorites before being home underdogs, as it’s understandably very hard to focus on an inferior opponent when you have such a tough upcoming game.

Speaking of the Broncos being road favorites, I think this line is way off, even with the Broncos only being favored by a point. Denver, despite their record, ranks 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their defense has been strong, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, though they haven’t been quite as good in the last 2 weeks without starting defensive end DeMarcus Ware, who will miss his 3rd straight game this week. The offense is what’s been the problem for the Broncos, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains.

The Broncos switch from Peyton Manning, who is old and banged up, to Brock Osweiler this week. Manning is officially listed as out with a foot injury, but he’s no lock to regain his job when healthy. He was playing so poorly (59.9%, 6.77 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions) that Osweiler could easily be an upgrade and the variance and unpredictably of an inexperienced quarterback scares me when betting against one, because I just don’t know how good they are, but Osweiler will be hamstrung by the same weak running game and offensive line as Manning.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been much better offensively with Jay Cutler healthy, as he’s playing some of the best football of his career under ex-Manning offensive coordinator Adam Gase. They move the chains at a 73.39% rate in the 7 games where Cutler has been healthy, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Both wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte are gametime decisions for this one, ahead of a Thursday Night trip to Green Bay, but Jeffery is expected to play and Forte’s replacement, Jeremy Langford, has been strong in his absence over the past 2 weeks. I don’t like that they play again in 4 days, but their opponent this week is tough enough that they should be focused and I don’t think they should be favored by any less than 4 points. Instead, Denver is favored by 1 in a bad spot. Chicago is my Pick of the Week.

Chicago Bears 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at Denver Broncos (7-1)

The Chiefs only have three wins, while the Broncos have seven, but the Chiefs actually rank higher than the Broncos in rate of moving the chains differential; While the Broncos rank 17th, the Chiefs rank 15th. How can that be? Well, the Broncos are 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or fewer and the Chiefs are 1-3. These two teams are closer than their records. It hurt the Chiefs losing running back Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL a few weeks back, but the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t really been slowed, as their passing game and offensive line have been a lot better over the past few weeks and backup running back Charcandrick West has impressed. The Chiefs are also missing defensive end Allen Bailey and left guard Ben Grubbs, but the Broncos are missing defensive end DeMarcus Ware and possibly wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders for this one.

This line might feel too low at 4.5, as it seems to for most of the public, as they’re on the Broncos, but it’s actually too high. Considering close to a quarter of games are decided by a field goal or less, this line shouldn’t be any higher than 3. The odds makers have dropped the line throughout the week (it opened at 6), despite public action, never a good sign considering the odds makers always win in the long run. It’s not enough for me to confidently take the Chiefs, especially with the Broncos having an easy game in Chicago next week (teams are 73-50 ATS before being road favorites of 6+ since 2010), but they should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +4.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Broncos, Colts, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)

The Broncos are in a good spot this week, as favorites of 6+ with another easy game on deck, hosting Kansas City next week. Favorites of 6+ are 78-39 ATS before being favored by 6+ since 2012, as significantly superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. However, the Broncos don’t deserve to be favored by that many. Despite their undefeated record, they rank just 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, as they have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown.

The Colts, meanwhile, are having a down year and rank 19th in that measure, but still don’t deserve to be underdogs of this many. Just two of their losses have come by more than a touchdown. They’re also historically very good at home and off of a loss in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era (2012). Luck is 19-9 ATS at home in his career, including 7-0 ATS as home underdogs, previously covering as 9.5 point home underdogs against the Patriots earlier this year, in a 7 point loss. Luck is also 15-3 ATS off a loss in his career. The Broncos have no business being favored by this many points in Indianapolis in this spot.

This line was only a field goal a week ago, before moving to six in the week since, following Denver’s big home win against the previously undefeated Packers. Despite that big movement, the public is still all over the Broncos. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run and I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense because those tend to caused by overreactions to a single week of play.

The Broncos’ defensive performance last week was no fluke and they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season, but I think their offensive performance was a fluke, as they still rank 30th in rate of moving the chains on the season (the reason why they’re only 10th overall). The Broncos don’t get a bye week to rest their ancient quarterback and put together a great gameplan for this game like they did for last week’s game. They’re also in a bad spot, as teams are 59-103 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010, including 15-31 ATS as favorites.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play, in addition to the fact that the Broncos do have a pretty easy game on deck, meaning they have no upcoming distractions. The first is that they’re kind of in a tough spot off of an overtime loss. Teams are 54-72 ATS off of a road overtime loss as underdogs since 1989. The second is that the Colts’ top receiver TY Hilton might not play, after not practicing all week, while the Broncos aren’t missing anyone of note. Hilton’s injury hurts Andrew Luck’s chances against what’s obviously a good defense, a problem because Luck himself is dealing with a throwing shoulder injury and possible broken ribs. However, the Broncos’ offense isn’t good either and the Colts’ defense has actually been their better unit this season, especially now that they’re healthy, after dealing with injuries early in the season. They rank 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season. They should be able to keep this one close and possibly even win here at home as 6 point underdogs. I’m confident enough in the Colts to put money on them.

Denver Broncos 17 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +6

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Denver Broncos (6-0)

Both the Packers and Broncos enter this one undefeated. The only other time since 1989 when two undefeated teams met this late in the season was week 9 of 2007, when the Patriots (who eventually went 16-0) visited the Indianapolis Colts. Like in that game, the home team is the underdog in this one, as the Patriots were 4.5 point road favorites in 2007 (winning by 4), and the Packers are 3 point favorites in Denver this year. That game and this one are the only instances since 1989 where 6-0 or better team is the underdog at home.

The Broncos deserve to be home underdogs though, as they’re a significantly inferior team to the Packers. The Broncos haven’t played a very tough schedule (Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, Oakland, Cleveland) and have still only won one game by more than a touchdown and have lost the rate of moving the chains battle in 3 of 6 games. On the season, they’re actually slightly in the negative in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a 6-0 record, and rank 14th in that statistic. The Packers haven’t had a tough schedule either (Chicago, Seattle, Kansas City, San Francisco, St. Louis, San Diego), but they rank 6th in that aforementioned statistic. They’re solid on both sides of the ball, while the Broncos have a great defense, but a horrible offense.

Given that the Packers are legitimate field goal favorites here on the road in Denver, they’re in a great spot coming off of their bye. Favorites of 3+ are 41-13 ATS off of a bye since 2002. The Broncos are coming off of a bye as well, but that tends to benefit the better team more and the Packers are the better team here. I like their chances of remaining undefeated and covering this spread. I’m concerned about all of the public action coming in on Green Bay, but I’m still comfortable putting money on them.

Green Bay Packers 24 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -3

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

The Broncos are 5-0, but are not a convincing 5-0, playing a schedule that hasn’t been that tough, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, and Oakland and not pretty beating any of those teams with much ease. They rank just 12th in rate of moving the chains differential. Cleveland isn’t that good, but they’re not awful either, ranking 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. They do have a solid chance to keep this one close and cover as 4.5 point home underdogs here.

However, I do expect the Broncos to be more focused than they’ve been all year in this one, ahead of a bye week.  I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Broncos, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same.

The Broncos are without outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware in this one, but they’ll plug in first round pick Shane Ray and the Browns will also be without cornerback Joe Haden and safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither of those two has been playing well, but those injuries definitely hurt their chances of turning their disappointing defense around this week. I’ll be going with the Broncos, but I’m not confident at all. As I mentioned, the Broncos haven’t played that well this season and the Browns could keep this close. On top of that, the Browns are in a good spot off of an overtime win as road underdogs. Teams are 34-23 ATS since 2002 in that spot. This won’t be easy for Denver.

Denver Broncos 19 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -4.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

The Broncos are one of six remaining undefeated teams, but haven’t been as dominant as they typically have been in the Peyton Manning era. Their matchups with Baltimore, Kansas City, and Minnesota all could have gone a different way, while their 24-12 win in Detroit wasn’t that much less of a nail biter. They rank just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, dominating on defense, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has not been very good at all, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains. Peyton Manning’s age is definitely showing in his age 39 season and their offensive line and running back play have been awful. They’re still a top team in the AFC because they have one of the most talented teams in the league and are coached by legendary defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but this is probably overall the worst Denver team in the Peyton Manning era.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are not as bad as they usually are and rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential. I don’t think they’re a real playoff contender or anything, as evidenced by their loss in Chicago last week and their week 1 blowout loss at home against the Bengals, but they’re definitely going to be tougher for the Broncos than they usually are. That being said, the Broncos should still be the right side here as 5 point road favorites in Oakland.

The Broncos are in a good spot because they’re projected to be big road favorites again next week in Cleveland. The early line has them favored by 5.5 points. Teams are 101-74 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 64-44 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to play an easy opponent, so you don’t have any real upcoming distractions. Two, you’re a really good football team. In this scenario, it’s a little bit of both. The Raiders don’t have any upcoming distractions either, heading into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. I’m not confident in the Broncos or anything, but they’re my pick.

Denver Broncos 20 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -5

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

The Broncos are one of seven 3-0 teams in the league right now, but they only rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among undefeated teams. Their defense has been great, improving on a strong 2014 in their first season with Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator, but their offense ranks 25th in rate of moving the chains, as the offensive line has struggled mightily, CJ Anderson has looked slow, and Peyton Manning, while still capable, has looked every bit of 39 years old. The Vikings, meanwhile, are 2-1 and rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, after winning back-to-back home games against Detroit and San Diego.

Given that, this line at 6.5 might seem too high, but the Broncos are also in such a good spot that I’m actually going with the Broncos this week, especially without a huge public lean on Minnesota. The Broncos go to Oakland next week, so they don’t have any real distractions on the horizon. The Vikings don’t either, going into a bye, but the better team usually prevails and covers without a distraction on the horizon. The Broncos are projected to be 6.5 point favorites in Oakland next week. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again and teams are 64-43 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point favorites, and 27-12 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. As long as this line is under a touchdown, the Broncos should be the right side, but I wouldn’t put money on it.

Denver Broncos 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Broncos, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (2-0) at Detroit Lions (0-2)

This game had a major line movement from last week to this week, as what was an even line last week now favors the visiting Denver Broncos by 3.5. I think that’s an overreaction. The Broncos won in Kansas City last week, but Peyton Manning still doesn’t look good and they could have easily lost, if not for a late, fluky fumble recovery touchdown. The Broncos have a strong team around Manning, particularly on defense, but I don’t think they deserve to be 3.5 point favorites here in Detroit. Road favorites are 15-28 ATS off of a Thursday night win since 2002 anyway, probably because hearing how great you are for 10 days after a Thursday night win, going into a seemingly easy game, can really hurt your focus.

The Lions are 0-2, but I’m still not convinced they’re a bad team. Their defense obviously misses Ndamukong Suh, who left as a free agent, and DeAndre Levy, who will miss his 3rd straight game to start the season this week with a hip problem, but they have Stephen Tulloch back after missing most of last season with injury and their offense is also healthier than it was last season too, with guys like Calvin Johnson and Larry Warford healthy. They’ve faced a pair of solid football teams (San Diego and Minnesota) thus far, both on the road, both games in which they were the underdog to begin with. The Lions probably won’t be an 11-win team again and could easily not be a playoff team again, but they’re better than this line suggests. Besides, 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the year before are 18-9 ATS week 3 since 2002.

Detroit is in a bad spot, playing their first home game of the season week 3. Teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning led teams have always been great in night games like this one, going 33-17 ATS in primetime games since 2002, for what that’s worth. The Broncos also have the easier game on deck, as they host the Vikings next week, while the Lions have to go to Seattle. I’m not making a big play on Detroit or anything, but I’m taking the 3.5 points because they’re too good to pass up here.

Denver Broncos 20 Detroit Lions 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

This line moved from a pick em last week to now Kansas City being favored by 3, a significant line movement from a toss up to expected to win by a field goal. The Chiefs being favored by a field goal here at home suggests that these two teams are essentially even. That big change was likely as a result of Peyton Manning’s struggles week 1, as Manning completed just 24 of 40 for 175 yards, didn’t lead the team to the end zone, and threw a pick six. He looked just as bad as he did to end last season, as he completed 120 of 201 (59.7%) for 1380 yards (6.87 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the final 6 games of the season, including an embarrassing 24-13 home loss to the vastly inferior Indianapolis Colts.

It looked like the off-season didn’t do anything for him, that he’s just as old and tired as he was after 14 weeks last season. Going into the season, there was debate about whether or not Manning could still play at a high level, going into his age 39 season, after the way last year ended and the off-season retirement speculation. Would he be 39-year-old Brett Favre, who led league in turnovers with the Jets, 40-year-old Brett Favre, who led the Vikings to the AFC Championship, or 41-year-old Brett Favre, who couldn’t make it through the season? After one game (especially behind the porous Bronco offensive line), he certainly looked more like 39-year-old or 41-year-old Favre than 40-year-old Favre.

But, then again, the Broncos won. They had arguably the best defensive performance in the league last week (except maybe Buffalo, who shut down that overrated Indianapolis offense) and they have good playmakers on offense around Manning in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and CJ Anderson. Their defense was good last year and now seems to have been made great by a healthy Danny Trevathan and the addition of Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. They had their strong week 1 performance even without suspended safety TJ Ward, a key stopper.

Now, the Broncos did play a Baltimore team that has a weak receiving corps, but the Ravens still have a strong offensive line and running game and the Broncos’ front 7 handled them easily. Plus, the Broncos’ secondary seemingly didn’t allow an open receiver all day, a dominant performance overall. And shouldn’t strength of opponent be taken into account in evaluating Manning’s performance as well as the defense’s? Manning was facing a Baltimore defense that was one of the best in the league coming into the season, before Terrell Suggs tore his Achilles late against Denver.

There’s still a chance he could put up another overall solid season even with his arm strength diminished. Remember, he completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions through 11 games last season. And even if he isn’t great, the Broncos have the supporting cast to still be one of the top teams in the AFC, something the Chiefs aren’t. The Broncos just knocked off another top AFC team and are simply on a different tier than the Chiefs. It’s hard to be too confident in a 39-year-old quarterback on the road on a short week, but he’s still a brilliant veteran and going against a Bob Sutton defense that he knows well and that he’s had good success against in the past. He should be able to move the ball with Thomas and Sanders against a weak Kansas City secondary that is without top cornerback Sean Smith. It’s really hard to pass on the field goal here now that it’s available.

Denver Broncos 19 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

I really like the Ravens this season. I think they’re one of the most talented teams in the NFL and on the Super Bowl short list. The Ravens lost a lot this off-season (Torrey Smith, Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee to name a few), as a result of their cap situation. However, they’ve also drafted well recently, adding Ricky Wagner, Kelechi Osemele, CJ Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Williams through the draft from 2012-2014. Between those 5 and Will Hill, who is still on a rookie deal, the Ravens have 6 impact players still on rookie deals. Add in a rookie class of Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, and Carl Davis in the first 3 rounds this year, widely regarded as a strong haul, and they have enough cheap, young talent to make up for some of the bigger contracts they have on their cap.

They are weak in the receiving corps, but they’re solid on the ground, solid under center, and have one of the best offensive lines in football. Their defense is also one of the best in football, supporting what was one of the top front 7s in the NFL last season with a reworked secondary that adds Kyle Arrington, gets a full season of Will Hill, and gets Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb back from injury. Wide receiver Breshad Perriman, their 1st round pick, is out for this one and they might not be quite as good as they were last season, but they were also better than their record last season, finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL on paper.

They’re underdogs of 5 here, so they’re the side I’m taking, but I can’t do anything more than a low confidence pick on this one for two reasons. The first reason is that the Broncos are also very good. Peyton Manning is a question mark going into his age 39 season, they will have more injuries this season, after finishing with the fewest adjusted games lost last season, and have already lost left tackle Ryan Clady for the season, and they lost guys like Rahim Moore, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin, and Julius Thomas this off-season.

However, Manning still played well overall last season, on a team that finished the regular season #1 in rate of moving the chains differential, they did a solid job of replacing departed players with cheaper starters, and they have a budding star in CJ Anderson at running back. On top of that, the Ravens are not the same on the road, going 47-11 at home since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, as opposed to 35-34, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.14 points per game, on the road over that same time period. I do think this is one of the few games the Ravens will lose, but I will take the points for a low confidence bet.

Denver Broncos 23 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +5

Confidence: Low

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