Broncos

Denver Broncos sign TE James Casey

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

Casey was signed by the Eagles following the 2012 season to a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. He was expected to be a jack of all traits matchup nightmare in Chip Kelly’s offense, but struggled to make it onto the field, playing a combined 330 snaps in 2 seasons in Philadelphia behind both Brent Celek and Zach Ertz, before being an easy cap casualty this off-season. He’s going into his age 31 season in 2015, but he’s had success with Denver Head Coach Kubiak before and they’re only paying him 1.25 million over 1 year, a fraction of what he was making in Philadelphia.

He’ll likely reprise his old role from Houston, where he played 609 snaps in 2012 under Kubiak, despite the fact that the Texans had Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham. Kubiak frequently uses two tight ends and a fullback. He’ll do that less this season in Denver because of Peyton Manning, but Casey will see a lot of playing time at fullback. He’s was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked fullback in 2011 and 10th ranked fullback in 2012. This is a solid cheap pickup by the Broncos, getting a decent player who has scheme familiarity and fill a need.

Grade: B+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos sign DE Vance Walker

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

This move happened early in March, but it got lost in the shuffle for me so I’m just getting to it now. Walker graded out above average in both 2012 and 2013, including 17th in 2012, earning him a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal with the Chiefs last off-season. However, Walker ended up playing just 238 snaps with the Chiefs in 16 games and got released this off-season, a move that saved the Chiefs 2.75 million in cash and 1.75 million in cap space.

The Broncos signed Walker to a 2-year, 4 million dollar deal and it’s a pretty good value. Even though Walker didn’t earn the trust of the coaching staff in Kansas City, leading to limited playing time from him, he actually played pretty well on the field. In fact, no one played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse at his position in 2014. Scheme versatile, with success in a 4-3 in Atlanta, a 4-3 in Oakland, and a 3-4 in Kansas City, Walker will slot in as a valuable reserve 3-4 defensive end in the Broncos’ new 3-4 defense.

Walker will rotate with Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and fellow free agent signing Antonio Smith at 3-4 defensive end. Sylvester Williams will slot in at nose tackle, with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller at rush linebacker, Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan at middle linebacker, Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and Bradley Roby at cornerback and TJ Ward and Darian Stewart at safety. The Broncos lost a lot this off-season, but they’ve made some nice, under the radar moves and will only have pressing needs on the offensive line going into the draft. They could fill those holes ahead of the draft as there are still some decent offensive linemen available in free agent. Obviously much of how this team does next season hinges on Peyton Manning and his health going into his age 39 season, but I thought this was the best overall team in football last year before Manning got hurt. With their early odds at 15-1, they’re a decent value to win next year’s Super Bowl.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos sign DE Antonio Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

Antonio Smith was released by the Raiders recently, a move that saved the Raiders 4 million in cash and cap space, after Smith had a down season in his first season in Oakland, grading out below average for the first time since 2010. The Broncos are signing him for half of that on this 1-year, 2 million dollar deal and he has a good chance to bounce back in Denver, reuniting with former Houston head coach Gary Kubiak and, more importantly, former Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.

In Denver, Smith will move from defensive tackle back to a more natural position for him at 3-4 defensive end and play in a rotation with Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and Vance Walker. Smith still got great pass rush at defensive tackle for the Raiders last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle in terms of pass rush grade, but he graded out dead last overall, which is why he overall graded out below average. Coincidentally enough, 2010, the last time Smith graded out below average before last season, was also the last time that Smith played without Wade Phillips and played in a 4-3, so a return to Phillips’ 3-4 should be good for him.

In 2011, 2012, and 2013, Smith graded out 6th, 5th, and 18th among 3-4 defensive ends, including 2nd, 2nd, and 5th in pure pass rush grade. He hasn’t graded out above average against the run since 2007, back when he played 4-3 defensive end, and he’ll see the vast majority of his snaps in Denver in obvious passing situations, but he should still be an asset for them. The one concern is he’s going into his age 34 season, especially concerning when coupled with his play last season, but he’s going guaranteed 500K and he could still have one last solid season left in him in the right role in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense.

Grade: A-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos sign S Darian Stewart

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

The Broncos were not expected to re-sign free safety Rahim Moore this off-season (and they didn’t). That’s because the Broncos already had big contract defensive backs in their secondary around the free safety spot, in the form of Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and TJ Ward. However, the Broncos did need a replace for Moore, who signed with the Texans on a surprisingly cheap 3-year, 12 million dollar deal that I thought was one of the better values of free agency. Stewart comes even cheaper than Moore, as the total value of this deal (4.5 million over 2 years) is similar to the annual value of Moore’s deal, though that’s with good reason as he doesn’t nearly have Moore’s upside.

However, he’s a solid cheap replacement whose deficiencies can be masked by the rest of this secondary. Stewart, a 2010 undrafted free agent, was forced into a starting role too early in 2011, grading out 82nd out of 87 eligible safeties that season. Stewart has rehabbed his value in the last two seasons though. In 2013, he graded out only slightly below average on 583 snaps and then in 2014 he graded out above average for the first time since his rookie season on 782 snaps (14 starts). He’s a fringe starter, but he’s a solid, cheap signing by a team that has a lot of talent all over the field that they have to fit under the cap in the next couple of off-seasons.

Grade: B+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos sign TE Owen Daniels

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

This is exactly where I expected Owen Daniels to go this off-season. Daniels has played his whole career for Gary Kubiak, first in Houston where he was head coach and then Baltimore where he was offensive coordinator. It almost seemed too obvious that Daniels would follow Kubiak at Denver, where Kubiak is now the head coach and where they need a pass catching tight end, as Julius Thomas was expected to leave as a free agency this off-season (he did).

This deal was a little bit more than I was expecting though (12.25 million over 3 years, though with only 4.25 million guaranteed in the first year. Owen Daniels hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2008 and has missed 27 games over the past 6 seasons combined. He’s also going into his age 33 season. He did have a decent season in 2014, catching 48 passes for 527 yards and 4 touchdowns on 72 attempts (66.7%) and 410 routes run (1.29 yards per route run) in 15 games. He’s graded out above average as a pass catcher in each of the last 4 seasons and he’s a decent run blocker too. However, he’s just a borderline starter with little long-term upside and should have been paid like one. This misses a little.

Grade: B-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos sign G Shelley Smith

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, Uncategorized

This isn’t the Shelley Smith who is (used to be?) an unattractive female reporter for ESPN. This is the Shelley Smith that could easily be the Broncos’ starting left guard in 2015. The Broncos aren’t paying Smith much (5.65 million over 2 years), but it’s still too much for him (especially since the Dolphins cut him this off-season to save 2.75 million) and he’s not a starting caliber player. The Dolphins signed Shelley Smith to a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal last off-season, but he only played 367 snaps, despite terrible play on the Dolphins’ offensive line all season. Despite holes on the offensive line, the Dolphins cut him this off-season, even though his salary wasn’t that much. That’s because Smith himself was also terrible, grading out 54th out of 78 eligible despite the limited playing time.

Smith has maxed out at 371 snaps (in 2013) and played 1098 snaps total in his 5-year career. Smith flashed in 2013 on those 371 snaps, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked guard despite the limited playing time, so he’s flashed. However, in 2012, he graded out 55th out of 81 eligible on just 360 snaps and he was just a 6th round pick in 2010. He didn’t play a single offensive snap in the first 2 years of his career and, of course, he struggled last season. Broncos’ head coach Gary Kubiak was with the Texans when they drafted him in 2010 so maybe he thinks he’ll be a good fit for his blocking scheme, but the fact that he never played a snap for the Texans in 2010 and 2011 and was a final cut in 2012 suggests otherwise. Hopefully the Broncos add competition for him through the draft.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Offensive Tackle

Ryan Clady missed essentially the whole 2013 season with a foot injury, but Chris Clark played well in Ryan Clady’s absence in 2013 and the Broncos were very excited about their offensive line with Clady returning in 2014. They moved Clark to right tackle and Orlando Franklin inside to left guard, where he would replace the overrated Zane Beadles, who signed in Jacksonville. However, the only player who really worked out was Franklin, who played well in his first season at left guard. Clady graded out slightly below average in his first season back. He’ll be given another chance in 2015, but the Broncos need right tackle help. Chris Clark graded out 52nd out of 84 eligible before being benched. Louis Vasquez moved from right guard to right tackle and played alright, but he’s one of the league’s best guards so they should keep him there long-term. Finding a new right tackle who could possibly play left tackle in 2016 and beyond should be a priority of their off-season and somewhere they could go in the first round.

Tight End

Julius Thomas and Virgil Green were #1 and #2 on the Broncos in snaps played by tight ends, but both are free agents this off-season. Green could easily be back, but he’s only a blocking tight end. Julius Thomas has been their primary pass catching tight end over the past 2 seasons, but he’s not expected to be back as a free agent. Finding a pass catching replacement will be a need this off-season, assuming he does, in fact, leave.

Defensive Tackle

The Broncos will be moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. They have good personnel for it. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller will play outside linebacker. Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and Sylvester Williams will rotate at defensive end. Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan will be the middle linebackers. Their only hole is nose tackle. Re-signing Terrance Knighton would fill that hole, but it sounds like he’s going to chase the money and go elsewhere. He probably wants to play in a 4-3 that would give him more pass rush opportunities anyway. Finding a true nose tackle will be on the Broncos’ list this off-season.

Center

Manny Ramirez struggled last season at both center and right guard. If he’s back as a starter at center next season, it will be at a position where he graded out 28th out of 41 eligible in 2014 in 8 starts. He’s also going into his age 33 season. They should try to find an upgrade. He could also be a cap casualty, a move that would save them 3 million in cash and cap space in 2015. Will Montgomery played well at center in his absence last season, but he’s a free agent and he’s also aging, going into his age 32 season.

Safety

Rahim Moore is a free agent. With the Broncos having already committed significant money to Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and TJ Ward in their secondary, it’s widely assumed they won’t outbid the highest bidders on the open market and that Moore will not be back in Denver. They’ll need to find a replacement safety in that case.

Guard

As I mentioned earlier, I expect the Broncos to move Louis Vasquez back to right guard in 2015, not because he was bad at right tackle, but because he’s so much better at right guard. However, the Broncos will still have a problem at guard if left guard Orlando Franklin leaves as a free agent, which he could easily do.

Wide Receiver

Wes Welker is not expected back as a free agent, going into his age 34 season, coming off of a down season thanks to age and injury. 2014 2nd round pick Cody Latimer will play a bigger role in his absence, with Emmanuel Sanders picking up more snaps in the slot. The bigger issue would be if, for whatever reason, the Broncos don’t bring back Demaryius Thomas, as they’d have to find some way to replace him. He’s widely expected to be franchise tagged though so that almost definitely won’t be an issue. Thomas, Sanders, and Latimer are expected to be their top-3 wide receivers in 2015.

Key Free Agents

WR Demaryius Thomas

Demaryius Thomas has put up absurd numbers over the past 3 seasons, playing all 48 games, catching 297 passes for 4483 yards and 35 touchdowns. Playing with Peyton Manning at quarterback and being a target monster has definitely helped him, but he’s graded out 2nd, 5th, and 5th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in his own right in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. No other wide receiver has graded out in the top-5 in all 3 of those seasons. The 2010 1st round pick was also productive with Tim Tebow in 2011, as he had 35 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs. That’s 80 catches for 1703 yards and 9 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games. Along with Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson, you can make a case for him as the best wide receiver in football. He’s widely expected to be franchise tagged so he’ll be back in 2015. He’s also a candidate for a massive long-term deal.

DT Terrance Knighton

Knighton was a 3rd round pick by the Jaguars in 2009. He started 49 games in 4 seasons with the Jaguars, but ended up grading out slightly below average in all 4 seasons. Knighton signed a 2-year, 4.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos in his first trip to free agency two off-seasons ago, a move that paid off in a big way for the Broncos. Knighton proved to be a late bloomer, grading out 9th in 2013 and proving himself again in 2014, grading out 12th. The 6-3 330 pounder is a fierce run stopper and can rush the passer as well. His 2nd trip to the open market should be much more lucrative than his first and he’s expected to be priced out of the Broncos’ budget. He’ll probably want to stay in a 4-3 where he can get more pass rush opportunities anyway and the Broncos are moving to a 3-4 and need more of a true nose tackle. A reunion with Jack Del Rio in Oakland makes a lot of sense. The Raiders have a ton of cap space and a huge need at defensive tackle and Knighton has played his entire career with Del Rio, first when he was Jacksonville’s head coach and then when he was Denver’s defensive coordinator. Del Rio is now the head coach in Oakland.

TE Julius Thomas

Julius Thomas played 50 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league, catching 1 pass, after the incredibly athletic former basketball player was drafted in the 4th round in 2011. He broke out in 2013, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he was limited by injuries in 2014, catching 43 passes for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games. Thomas is a poor run blocker, has never played all 16 games in a season, and a lot of his passing game production was the result of getting to play with Peyton Manning. He’s a candidate to be overpaid on the open market this off-season.

G Orlando Franklin

Orlando Franklin has started 63 games since the Broncos drafted him in the 2nd round in 2011, 47 at right tackle from 2011-2013 and 16 at left guard last season. His versatility will serve him well on the open market, as will his abilities, as he’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014. He should make upwards of 6+ million dollars on his next deal. Zane Beadles, another former Bronco offensive lineman, got 5-year, 30 million from the Jaguars last off-season. I think Franklin is a better player and that deal will be a floor for what he’ll get this off-season.

S Rahim Moore

Rahim Moore struggled as a rookie, but he had a fantastic 2012 season (the gaffe in the playoff loss to Baltimore aside), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety. He still looked like one of the league’s better young safeties going into his 3rd year in the league in 2013, but he was only a league average starting safety that year before going down for the season with a frightening, rare injury that almost cost him his leg and his life. Moore returned in 2014, but was once again only an average starter. It’s obviously great that Moore has been able to resume his life and his career, but he goes to the open market as only a league average starter. He’ll make a good amount of money in a weak safety market though.

C Will Montgomery

With the Redskins, Montgomery graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked center in 2011, 5th in 2012, and 15th in 2013. However, he was still released by the Redskins last off-season with a new regime coming in with a new blocking scheme and he only got a cheap, 1-year deal from the Broncos. Montgomery made 8 starts down the stretch for the Broncos and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked center. He’s going into his age 32 season and he’s not a good fit for a power blocking scheme, but he deserves to be a starter somewhere in the NFL in 2015. A return to Denver could make sense as Gary Kubiak is a Mike Shanahan disciple and Montgomery had his best years under Shanahan in Washington.

TE Virgil Green

Green, a 2011 5th round pick, has played 1127 snaps in the last 4 seasons combined, serving as a valuable run blocking tight end, grading out above average as a run blocker in all 4 seasons. However, he’s graded out below average in 3 of those 4 seasons in pass catching grade, totaling 23 catches for 206 yards and a touchdown. He’ll come cheap this off-season and could easily return to the Broncos as a blocking specialist.

WR Wes Welker

Once again, the Patriots cut ties with a player at the perfect time. Letting Welker go looked like a mistake in 2013, when the Broncos were breaking records and beat the Patriots easily in the AFC Championship, but that was largely because of Peyton Manning’s huge season, Julius Thomas’ breakout year, and the loss of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez by the Patriots. Obviously, that script flipped in 2014. Overall, over the course of his 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, Welker caught 122 passes for 1242 yards and 12 touchdowns, missing 5 games with injury. His replacement in New England, Julian Edelman, had 197 catches for 2028 yards and 10 touchdowns over that time period. Statistically, Welker had the worst season of his career since 2005 last season, catching 49 passes for 464 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now he hits free agency, going into his age 34 season, with a serious concussion history, and coming off an awful season and the Broncos have already said they won’t be bringing him back. If he decides to keep playing, it’ll be on a cheap, one-year deal and he could have to wait a while. Retirement, either unforced or forced, is another possibility.

Cap Casualty Candidates

C Manny Ramirez

Ramirez struggled at both guard and center last season, including 28th out of 41 eligible centers in 8 starts. He’s been better in the past, but he’s going into his age 33 season. If the Broncos aren’t planning on bringing him back as a starter at any position, they’ll probably cut him and save 3 million in cash and cap space, which will be very valuable, given how many free agents they have to either lock up or replace.

OT Ryan Clady

Clady will probably be back, but moving on from him wouldn’t be a terrible move. He missed 14 games with a foot injury in 2013 and wasn’t the same in 2014, grading out below average. The Broncos can save 10 million in cash and 8.8 million on the cap by letting him go. He’s a good fit for new Head Coach Gary Kubiak’s blocking zone scheme, so, more likely, he’ll be given a chance to bounce back in 2015 and cut before 2016 if he struggles again.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2014 Divisional Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Picks, Broncos, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Last week was an overall successful weekend. I hit 3 out of 4 plays, including both of my big plays (Baltimore +3 and Carolina -6). The one I missed was the Indianapolis/Cincinnati game, as I made a low confidence pick on Cincinnati. I understood the AJ Green absence would be huge and that Indianapolis was a good home team and overall the better team on the season, but Cincinnati was the better of the two teams in the 2nd half of the season by a significant margin as their defense got it together as the season went on.

The Colts came into the playoffs as the 2nd worst team in the 2nd half of the season in rate of moving the chains differential when adjusted for schedule at -0.21, only ahead of Detroit at -1.18%. The Colts went 6-2 in their final 8 games, but their 6 wins came against the likes of Jacksonville, Washington, Tennessee, Houston, Cleveland and the New York Giants and they didn’t beat them by enough to offset the fact that they were crushed by the only two playoff teams they faced over that time period, Dallas and New England. Their offense was the unit that declined the most significantly and it’s easy to understand why given that Andrew Luck’s play slipped and players got hurt, most importantly Ahmad Bradshaw, who was playing fantastic football before going down.

The Colts beat the Bengals last week, but I still am not convinced they’re quite able to match up with top level competition. The Bengals were a solid team this season, but ranked 12th, 8th, and 6th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential among playoff teams on the season, in their final 8 games, and in their final 4 games respectively, and they were missing AJ Green. Besides, that game was at home, where they’ve been significantly better this season than on the road.

At home, they’ve moved the chains at a 75.89% rate this season, as opposed to 66.39% for their opponents (a differential of 9.50%), and on the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 74.02% rate, as opposed to 73.93% for their opponents (a differential of 0.09%). This is nothing new, as the Colts are 21-5 straight up at home in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era, outscoring opponents by an average of 6.23 points per game, while they are 14-12 straight up on the road over that same time period (since 2012), getting outscored by an average of 2.58 points per game, a swing of almost 9 points.

They’re just 2-9 ATS on the road over that time period against teams with winning records. Of their 8 straight up losses against winning teams on the road over that time period, all 14 of them have come by two touchdowns or more. This season, they were 0-3 against playoff teams on the road, losing those 3 games by margins of 7, 17, and 35. Their closest game was a 24-17 loss in Denver week 1. They did cover the spread (it doesn’t factor in to that 2-9 ATS record because Denver was 0-0 at the time), but only by half a point, as the line was 7.5 points. However, they moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in that game, as opposed to 82.35% for Denver (a differential of -7.35%), so it wasn’t quite as close as the final score suggested (Denver led 24-0 at one point) and their history against good teams on the road suggests this game won’t be quite as close.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because Denver kind of limps into the playoffs. They finished the regular season #1 in both rate of moving the chains differential and rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule at 6.77% and 6.92% respectively, but just 9th among playoff teams in schedule adjusted in their final 4 games at 3.00%, as their offense slipped to end the season and Peyton Manning didn’t look quite as good. Still, I think they have a good chance to hand the Colts another big disappointing road loss to a tough opponent (having Julius Thomas and Brandon Marshall back and healthy after the bye could be key), and, as long as this line is a touchdown or lower, I’m going to make a significant play on them.

Denver Broncos 34 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Denver -7

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (3-12) at Denver Broncos (11-4)

The Broncos lost last week in Cincinnati, but they still rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. Manning isn’t playing as good of football as he was last season and he’s coming off of one of the worst games of his career, but this is still a very complete team that runs the ball and plays defense better than they did last season. They move the chains at a 76.74% rate, as opposed to 71.10% for their opponents, a differential of 5.64%. Despite that, people seem to be jumping off the bandwagon. The public is actually on the Raiders here as 14 point underdogs, which is notable because the public always loses money in the long run and the public never takes big underdogs.

As they usually are, the public is wrong here. This line is way too low. The Raiders, despite some recent success, still stink, moving the chains at a 63.07% rate, as opposed to 72.01% for their opponents, a differential of -8.94% that is still the league’s worst. They’ve been even worse away from Oakland, moving the chains at a 57.85% rate, as opposed to 70.04% for their opponents, a differential of 12.19% in 8 games, including a neutral site “home game” in London week 4 against the Dolphins.

The Raiders have won three straight home games in big upset fashion, which is part of why the public likes them here, but they’ve still had issues on the road recently. Besides, teams are 65-85 ATS off of home victories as 6+ point underdogs. On the other side, the Broncos have had no problem taking care of bad teams in the Peyton Manning era, going 16-10 ATS as home favorites, including 6-3 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Raiders have been a sneaky good ATS team this season, going 8-7 ATS, including road covers against Seattle, New England, and San Diego. They’re also 4-2 ATS in their last 6, though just 1-2 ATS on the road.

Denver Broncos 34 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -14

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Broncos, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)

The Bengals had a huge performance in Cleveland last week, winning the first down battle 24-5 against the Browns and moving the chains at a 78.38% rate, as opposed to 35.71% for their opponents. However, they still rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to 72.67% for their opponents, a differential of -0.54%. Meanwhile, the Broncos are best in the NFL, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate, as opposed to 71.20% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10%. Despite what the Bengals did last week, the Broncos definitely deserve to be field goal favorites here on the board.

The Broncos are also in a good spot in their 2nd straight road game, winning in San Diego last week. Teams are 56-37 ATS as road favorites off of a win as road favorites since 2002. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game.

On top of that, Manning has been very good in primetime games in his career, going 33-16 ATS in such games since 2003, over a decade ago. Andy Dalton doesn’t have the same amount of experience in these types of games so the sample size isn’t as big, but the Bengals don’t have a good history in games like this since he took over as the starter in 2011, going 2-9, including 3 playoff losses. Again, it’s a small sample size, but it’s definitely not good, especially when you compare it with Manning and his much larger sample size.

The Broncos also have the much easier game next week so they won’t be as distracted, as they host the Raiders in a game that could have this season’s biggest line. Non-divisional road favorites are 79-63 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 46-34 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 14 or more. Meanwhile, the Bengals have an equally big, if not bigger, game next week in Pittsburgh, a divisional opponent who they are competing with for both the division crown and potentially a wild card spot. I like the Broncos chances of covering here a good amount.

Denver Broncos 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -3

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]