Broncos

Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos, Uncategorized

Last week: 1 (+0)

Record: 6-0

I can’t blame the Broncos for not getting up for the Jaguars before a big game with the Colts on deck. Even still, they won by double digits. What’s been especially impressive about the Broncos’ start is how they’ve done this without winning the turnover battle, as their turnover margin is zero on the season. This is in spite of the fact that Manning has been picked off just twice this season. They are -7 in fumbles, as the result of a 33.3% fumble recovery rate. That won’t continue.

Week 6 Studs

LT Chris Clark

DT Malik Jackson

Week 6 Duds

None

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Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3)

I was dead wrong about the Colts this season. In my defense, the logic was sound. The Colts were not an 11 win team last year. 7 of their 11 wins came by a touchdown or less against a team that finished with a record of 7-9 or worse. They had a terrible offensive line and defense and finished the season 25th in DVOA, which I think is a much more accurate measure of level of play than record. They started the season basically playing the way they did last year, almost losing to the Raiders at home and then losing at home to a solid Miami team.

However, in the three weeks since, they’ve blown out the 49ers in San Francisco, the Jaguars in Jacksonville, and beaten the Seahawks at home. Andrew Luck has had a fantastic year in his 2nd year in the league, as a result of his own development, an improved offensive line, and a new offensive system for which he’s a better fit. His completion percentage is up 8.1%, his yards per attempt up 3/10 of a yard, and his touchdown to interception rate has improved from 23/18 to 7/2. Defensively, off-season additions have made an impact, as has the presence of Head Coach and defensive mind Chuck Pagano, who is fortunately in remission after missing most of last season with cancer. They have moved the chains 83% of the time offensively, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential that is tied for 2nd best in the NFL with Denver, and only behind New Orleans.

All that being said, I actually love San Diego in this spot this week. They’re no slouch because of their offensively dominance this season. Philip Rivers been very impressive, completing 73.7% of his passes for an average of 8.5 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, as the offense moves the chains on a very impressive 81% of opportunities. He’s doing that without much of a supporting cast. Mike McCoy needs to be given a ton of credit. The defense is pathetic, allowing opponents to move the chains on 82% of opportunities, and they were even worse against the Raiders with Dwight Freeney now out for the season. They made Terrelle Pryor look like John Elway. However, the Chargers can definitely pull the upset in the right situation and I think this is the right situation.

The Colts are coming over from the Eastern Time Zone to the Western Time Zone to play this game at night. The game will start around 8:30 in the internal clocks of the Colts and go to about midnight. Meanwhile, it will run from about 5:30 to about 9 in the internal clocks of the Chargers. That gives them a significant difference. Since 1989, Western Time Zone teams are 47-20 ATS at home against a team from the Eastern Time Zone at night.

It doesn’t stop there, however. This could be a very bad spot for the Colts, as road favorites off of an upset home win against the Seahawks before a huge game against the Broncos in Indianapolis next week. Not only is Denver probably the best team in the NFL, but it’ll be Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis. They could easily be caught looking forward to that against the Chargers here. The Chargers, meanwhile, go to Jacksonville next week, when they will be road favorites. Last week, they lost as road favorites in Oakland, so they’ll be completely focused for a superior opponent here.

Since 1989, teams are 20-36 ATS as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites. Meanwhile, non-divisional home dogs are 71-38 ATS before being divisional road favorites. There are not many situations where a team is home dog in between being road favorites, when their opponent is road favorites in between being home dogs, at least not enough to make any sort of point off of. However, I think we can safely say it benefits the Chargers. I really like their chances to pull the upset at home, as they did against Dallas and almost did against Houston.

San Diego Chargers 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: San Diego +2

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0)

Anyone who puts any money on this game is a degenerate gambler and should seek help. You never want to lay 27 points with any NFL team. The highest line ever in NFL history was 23.5 points and the highest line ever covered in NFL history was 20.5 points. No team has covered as 20 point favorites since 1992 (0-8 ATS in their last 8 opportunities).

However, you don’t really want to bet on Jacksonville in this one either. Jacksonville is getting blown out. There is no doubt about it. Denver is moving the chains on 87% of opportunities, a ridiculous rate, including an absurd 100 first downs to 3 punts over their last 3 games. Jacksonville’s defense is equally as bad as Dallas, Oakland, and Philadelphia, who the Broncos have been able to score against at will, as the Jaguars are allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. Denver is probably going to score almost every time out again.

Denver’s defense isn’t great, as they’ve allowed opponents to move the chains on 75% of opportunities, but the Jaguars are moving the chains on just 59% of opportunities and have lost one of their few strong points, their two offensive tackles, in the last two weeks. Even with a slightly superior Chad Henne taking over for a once again injured Blaine Gabbert, It wouldn’t be me at shock if the Jaguars didn’t score a touchdown until garbage time (which could start in the 2nd quarter). This line is justified.

I don’t expect the Broncos to go undefeated or the Jaguars to be winless just because that’s really hard to do either way, but there is no way, barring a Manning injury, that Jacksonville doesn’t lose by two touchdowns or more. They’re getting blown out. It’s futile to bet on whether or not they’re getting blown out by 21 or 35 or 28 or whatever. That’s the definition of a degenerate gambler. The Broncos could easily pull Manning in the 3rd quarter and throw Brock Osweiler out there. The Jaguars could easily mount a garbage time drive that cut the margin of victory from 31 to 24. Don’t bet actually money on this game. Out of principle, I’m taking the Jaguars (and I have to mention that the Jaguars are road dogs off of a road loss, a 65% covering situation historically), but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 42 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +27

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos, Uncategorized

Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 5-0

The Broncos proved themselves to be human in Dallas this week, even in a win. They probably won’t go 16-0. That’s just really, really hard to do. Someone will upset them once or twice at least this season. However, I’m moving them to the top spot because the Seahawks lost in Indianapolis this week. I still believe the Seahawks could easily beat the Broncos in a cold weather Super Bowl and that the gap between them is much more minimal than people think (throw New Orleans in there as well).

Week 5 Studs

QB Peyton Manning

Week 5 Duds

LE Derek Wolfe

DT Kevin Vickerson

CB Tony Carter

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

SS Duke Ihenacho

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Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Broncos, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Broncos are playing incredible football right now. Peyton Manning has 16 touchdowns (to no interceptions) and 1470 yards, while the team has 179 points. They could easily break the touchdown record (50) the yardage record (5476) and the points record (589). However, they won’t play THIS well all season and they don’t need to in order to bring those records. They can break the scoring record by scoring 34.2 points per game the rest of the way, impressive, but more than 10 points per game less than they’ve scored thus far this season. I think that’s very reasonable.

As good as the Broncos have been, they’ve played arguably 3 of the worst 5 defenses in the NFL so far, playing the Giants, Raiders, and the Eagles. Those teams have allowed opponents to move the chains on 78%, 76%, and 85% of opportunities. These Cowboys allowed opponents to do so on 73% of opportunities and have significantly more defensive talent than those 3 teams have. This could be the start of Manning and the Broncos looking more human. The 2007 New England Patriots had a stretch in which they scored 173 points in 4 games and a stretch in which they scored 99 points in 4 games.

As a result, I think this line is way too big. The odds makers know they can jack this line up ridiculously high and people will still bet on the Broncos. The Broncos, predictably, are one of the highest bet teams this week. This could be a trap line for that reason. Before last week, this line was Denver -3.5. Now it’s Denver -9. We’ve had 5 and a half points of line movement and the public still loves the Broncos. Given that the odds makers always make money, that fact should scare you off of the Broncos. The Broncos, even if they somehow win every game this season, won’t cover every game this season. Even the 2007 Patriots went just 10-6 ATS, 10-9 ATS if you include the post-season.

The Cowboys are a solid football team. No team deserves to be favored by 9 points in Dallas against them. Yes, they lost in San Diego last week, but it’s not like San Diego is a terrible football team. Philip Rivers is playing excellent football right now. Besides, they had a huge situational trend working against them last week (non-divisional home dogs are 63-28 ATS since 1989 before being divisional favorites). This week, the Cowboys are the one with that powerful trend on their side. I like their chances of keeping this one close.

Denver Broncos 34 Dallas Cowboys 31

Pick against spread: Dallas +9

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos, Uncategorized

Last week: 2

Record: 4-0

You could definitely call the Broncos 1b to the Seahawks’ 1a. I have the Broncos 2nd here. I think in a cold weather Super Bowl, the Seahawks would be at an advantage. That being said, the Broncos are playing out of their minds right now. Peyton Manning is completing 75.0% of his passes for an average of 9.4 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He won’t play THIS well all season, but he and the Broncos have a very good chance to break the touchdown record (50), the yardage record (5476), and the points record (589).

Week 4 Studs

QB Peyton Manning

WR Demaryius Thomas

LT Chris Clark

RT Orlando Franklin

RG Louis Vasquez

Week 4 Duds

CB Tony Carter

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Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

Teams who have blowout wins on Monday Night Football tend to carry that over into the following week. Teams are 29-13 ATS off of a win by 21 or more points on Monday Night Football since 2002. The Broncos didn’t win by 21+ last week, because of a late fumble that immediately led to an Oakland touchdown and shrunk the margin from 23 to 16. However, they completely dominated the Raiders in a way even worse than the final score would suggest.

The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game. They might not have won by 21 or more, but they certainly dominated in a way that could be carried over into this game.

I also think this is a very poor matchup for the Eagles. Their defense has no chance of stopping Peyton Manning and company. The Broncos have 78 first downs and 13 punts this season, while the Eagles have allowed 77 first downs and forced 9 punts. There’s a very good chance that the Broncos score on almost every possession and surpass 40 points in this one. The Eagles’ offense, meanwhile, might not be able to execute their game plan as they’d like because of the altitude in Denver. They won’t be used to the thinner air and that could easily hurt their ability to run a no huddle, hurry up offense.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because there’s no line value. The Broncos are favored by 11 points here which is a lot considering the Eagles aren’t a terrible team or anything. This line was also a lot lower last week before the Broncos blew out the Raiders and the Eagles lost at home to Kansas City. However, the Broncos should be the right side. They are also my Survivor Pick this week.

Denver Broncos 38 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Denver -11

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+1)

The Broncos beat the Raiders badly, but the final score of 37-21 doesn’t tell how big of a blowout it was. The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game. Offensively at least, the Broncos are starting to look like a serious threat to the 2007 Patriots’ records. They won’t allow just 17.1 points per game like the 2007 Patriots and they won’t go 16-0 though. That being said, you could argue they’re better than the Seahawks. I won’t, but you can’t argue that any other team deserves a spot in the top-2 than the Broncos and the Seahawks.

Week 3 Studs

QB Peyton Manning

RB Ronnie Hillman

WR Eric Decker

RG Louis Vasquez

C Manuel Ramirez

Week 3 Duds

TE Virgil Green

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0)

I think a lot of people have forgotten how awful the Raiders were supposed to be coming into this season and I don’t understand why. They did almost beat the Colts in Indianapolis week 1, but the Colts won 7 games by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams last year, including the 2-14 Chiefs. The Colts then followed that up by losing at home to Miami. The Raiders then beat the Jaguars in Oakland last week 19-9 in a game that was actually more lopsided than the final score would suggest, but I don’t know how impressive that is. Jacksonville is definitely worse than the Raiders, but you can really say that about any other team, considering how awful the Raiders were seen to be coming into the season, and for good reason.

I think that will get exposed this week against Denver in a blowout loss and even though this line is -15.5, I feel like it would be closer to -18 a couple of weeks ago, especially considering how well the Broncos have started the season. Peyton Manning should move the ball with ease against a defense filled with generally replacement level players, especially with Tyvon Branch out as well, and put Terrelle Pryor into the kind of obvious passing situations he hasn’t been in thus far this season and that will expose him. Manning has been especially good under the national television lights in his career, going 19-6 ATS on Thursday or Monday Night in his career. I have no problem laying the 15.5 here.

Denver Broncos 37 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Denver -15.5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos, Uncategorized

Last week: 4

Ryan Clady being out for the season hurts, but remember who they have under center. No quarterback protects their own blindside better than Peyton Manning. He thrived with a group of nobodies at left tackle in Indianapolis and he’ll be fine without Clady in Denver. They should still cruise through a very weak (at least at the top) AFC. His absence will be a bigger deal in the post-season, but they should still be considered AFC front runners.

Week 2 Studs

QB Peyton Manning

RB Knowshon Moreno

Week 2 Duds

RB Montee Ball

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