Browns

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Houston Texans (1-9-1)

Before the season, I thought the Browns had the potential to be the best team in the league with Deshaun Watson, adding an elite quarterback to one of the more talented rosters in the league, but I’m not sure if the latter is true anymore. Watson will make his debut this week and should further boost an offense that ranks 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but the Browns’ defense has underperformed significantly, ranking 21st in schedule adjusted efficiency, in part due to injuries to their two best linebackers Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. The Browns have been better than their 4-7 record suggests, with four of their seven losses coming by three points or fewer and a -23 point differential, but they also don’t seem like they’re truly an elite quarterback away from being an elite team.

It’s also tough to be confident in how Watson will play in his first game with his new team, close to two full years since his last meaningful action. He was one of the best quarterbacks in the league in 2020 and is still in his prime in his age 27 season, but there’s uncertainty with him returning to the game after an extended absence, in a new system with new teammates. It helps that he’ll make his return against a Texans team that looks like the worst in the league, especially now with the horrendous Kyle Allen under center, and my calculated line has the Browns favored by 10, giving us some line value with the Browns at -7, but there’s too much uncertainty here for the Browns to be worth a bet.

Cleveland Browns 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7

Confidence: Low

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7)

Typically significant road favorites cover at a high rate after a bye week, covering the spread 63.0% of the time as favorites of more than a field goal. At first glance, that would seem to apply to this game, with the Buccaneers favored by 3.5 points, but I don’t think the Buccaneers deserve to be favored by this much. The Browns are just 3-7, but four of their seven losses have come by three points or fewer, which would cover this spread, meaning they would have covered this spread in seven of their ten games this season, including four of their five home games.

Given that, this line seems too high. The Buccaneers have been better in recent weeks and they’re better overall than their 5-5 record suggests, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about two points above average, but this isn’t the same Buccaneers team that we’ve seen in the past couple years, so they shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal on the road against a competent team that is regularly competitive even in their losses.

If the Buccaneers weren’t coming off of a bye, the Browns would be my Pick of the Week, but, even with the Buccaneers being well-rested, we’re getting enough line value with the Browns for them to be worth a big bet, as my calculated line has this as a pick ‘em. The money line at +150 is also worth a bet, as the Browns should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game straight up. Even if they don’t pull the upset, about 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, so we have a good cushion.

Cleveland Browns 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: High

Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3) in Detroit

This ends up being a neutral site game for the Bills, with their matchup against the Browns being relocated to Detroit because of a snowstorm in Buffalo. Despite that, the Bills are still favored by 7.5 points, suggesting they’re that much better than the Browns. The Bills do typically blow out their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points across 18 wins over the past two seasons (18-10), but they haven’t been playing as well as late due to injuries on defense. Already without talented safety Micah Hyde, the Bills are also without talented edge defender Gregory Rousseau and, while they get back their other talented safety Jordan Poyer this week, they will be without stud linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. 

The Browns, meanwhile, are relatively healthy and, while they are 3-6, they have been relatively competitive in most of their losses, with four of six coming by three points or fewer. My calculated line still gives us some line value with the Bills as 8-point neutral site favorites, but that’s barely anything and the Browns are in the better spot as well, with the Bills having to play again in a few days on Thanksgiving, with favorites covering at just a 44.6% rate all-time before a Thursday Night Football game. This is just a low confidence pick, but I like the Browns for pick ’em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 30 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3)

The Dolphins are 6-0 in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa, but they haven’t really been blowing teams out, with their only victory by more than six points coming in a game against the Patriots in which the Dolphins won the turnover battle by three, which is not predictive week-to-week. This week, the Dolphins play a Browns team that is just 3-5, but they have been better than that record, with four of their five losses coming by three points or fewer. The Browns are also healthier coming out of their bye week, with key players Jadeveon Clowney, Denzel Ward, and Wyatt Teller all playing in the same game for the first time in a few weeks.

Unfortunately, the public and oddsmakers seem to understand that these two teams play a lot of close games, favoring the Dolphins by just 3.5 points here at home. That’s right where my calculated line is and, while my numbers suggest the Dolphins are slightly more likely to cover this spread than the Browns, this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week, as the Browns could easily force a backdoor cover late and cut this lead to a field goal or less, even if they are otherwise not that competitive throughout the game.

Miami Dolphins 31 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)

The Browns are just 2-5, but they aren’t getting blown out, with all but one of their losses coming by a field goal or less. Their point differential is -18, which is better than their record would suggest, and they are even better in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 16th, just slightly above average. Despite that, they are underdogs of a full field goal at home. However, they might deserve to be, for a couple reasons. For one, the Browns are missing several key players due to injury, most notably guard Wyatt Teller, arguably their most important offensive player, as well as top cornerback Denzel Ward and talented starting tight end David Njoku, while their top linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is questionable after not practicing all week. 

On top of that, the Browns are facing the Bengals, who seem like one of the better teams in the league, despite their record. Like most of the Browns’ losses, all of the Bengals’ losses were close games that they easily could have won, all decided by three points or fewer, as opposed to three of their four wins coming by double digits. Their +41 point differential is 4th best in the NFL and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they rank 4th, about 5 points above average and above the Browns.

The Bengals have some injury concerns as well, most notably the absence of stud wide receiver JaMarr Chase, but they have enough depth at that position to compensate and they are otherwise relatively healthy, leading to them having a four point edge over the Browns in my roster rankings. That still suggests that we’re getting some line value with the Browns, but it’s not enough for the Browns to be worth betting. That could change if Owusu-Koramoah ends up playing and the line stays at a full field goal, but that seems unlikely and, even in that case, I might keep this as a low confidence pick. I will update this pick if I end up betting on the Browns, who should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes either way.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Cleveland Browns 23

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

Earlier in the week, the Browns at +6.5 seemed like an intriguing bet in this game, as the Ravens are in a tough spot with a game against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football on deck, with favorites covering at just a 42.6% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. However, since earlier this week, the injury news has been in Baltimore’s favor, with the Browns ruling out one of their most important players, stud right guard Wyatt Teller, and the Ravens possibly getting back wide receiver Rashod Bateman and edge defender Justin Houston, a pair of key re-additions. 

It might be unlikely that Bateman and Houston both play, but it’s unlikely at least one of them returns and, with Teller out, if one of those two players plays, my calculated line has the Ravens favored by a touchdown, so we’re not getting any line value with the Browns anymore. I’ll still take the Browns for pick ‘em purposes because the Ravens are getting an insignificant amount of line value and are in a bad spot, but if Bateman and Houston both play, I might flip my pick to Baltimore. That’s how close this one is in my opinion. Either way, this would be a no confidence pick.

Update: Bateman and Houston are both playing, so I am switching to the Ravens, who are healthier than they’ve been for most of the season and are facing a Browns team missing one of their best players in Wyatt Teller.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: None

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

Both of these two teams are 2-3, but both have played better than their records would suggest. The Browns have a positive point differential at +8, with their three losses coming by a combined six points, including a game in which they blew a two-score lead under two minutes left in the game, due to a recovered onside kick. The Patriots, meanwhile, also have a positive point differential, despite a -2 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week.

The Browns are the healthier team, with the Patriots playing a backup quarterback, but the Browns are missing top cornerback Denzel Ward and talented edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, so they have injury problems of their own. Overall, I have these two teams about even, so this line, favoring the Browns at home by 2.5 points, is about right. That means we’re not getting any line value with either side, but a field goal win by the home team is probably the most likely result, so I would take the Browns for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Update: The Patriots’ top cornerback Jonathan Jones is unexpectedly out this week, so I am going to increase the confidence on Cleveland a little bit.

Cleveland Browns 24 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -2.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

The Browns lost last week in Atlanta, but that wasn’t that surprising as the Falcons are a competitive, if underwhelming team and the Browns were missing key players on defense, most notably Myles Garrett, arguably the best edge defender in the league. Garrett will be back this week for the Browns, who, despite last week’s loss, still rank 5th in offensive efficiency and have an offense that ranks significantly above average in my roster rankings, due to their offensive line, running game, and efficient quarterback play. 

The Browns haven’t faced that tough of a schedule, but they could easily be 4-0 right now if Garrett had played last week and if they had recovered an onside kick against the Jets and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which takes into account their easy schedule, but not Garrett’s absence, the Browns rank 13th, despite last week’s loss. Despite that, the Browns are 2-point home underdogs against the Chargers, who rank just 28th in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

Four games is a small sample size and the Chargers are more talented than their rank in schedule adjusted efficiency suggests, but they’ve also had significant injury problems this season that have led to them not being as good as expected. Center Corey Linsley and cornerback JC Jackson returned last week, but left tackle Rashawn Slater and edge defender Joey Bosa took their place on the injured list, while wide receiver Keenan Allen has been out since getting hurt during their week 1 game. 

Those five aforementioned players are five of their most important and, missing what they’re missing, I have the Chargers about a point behind the Browns in my roster rankings, in addition to being 6.5 points behind them in schedule adjusted efficiency. Given that, the Browns should be favored by at least a field goal at home, so we’re getting good line value with them as home underdogs, even if only by a couple points. The Browns are worth a significant bet this week, both against the spread and on the money line.

Cleveland Browns 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +2

Confidence: High

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

The Falcons were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this season and they may still end up there, but they have exceeded expectations through the first three games of the season, particularly on offense, where they rank 2nd in first down rate and 7th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, which are among the most predictive stats week-to-week. I don’t expect them to be that good all season, but they should have a favorable matchup this week against a Browns defense that ranks 18th in both yards per play allowed and first down rate allowed, despite playing well below average offenses in all three games thus far this season. 

When adjusted for schedule, the Browns rank just 31st in defensive efficiency and it’s possible the Falcons, even if they ultimately end up being a mediocre offense, are still the toughest offense the Browns have faced thus far these season by default, having played the Panthers (32nd in offensive efficiency), Jets (31st), and Steelers (27th) in the first three weeks of the season. Making matters worse, the Browns will be without a pair of key defenders Jadeveon Clowney and Anthony Walker and could be without their most important defender, Myles Garrett, who didn’t practice all week after a car accident.

The Browns should move the ball pretty well in this game though, entering this game ranked 6th in first down rate and 3rd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency against a Falcons defense that is mediocre at best. The Browns are on the road, but my roster rankings have them about three points better than the Falcons, even without their key defenders, so this line favoring the Browns by a point is about right. I’m taking the Falcons for now, but if Garrett ends up playing and this line doesn’t move drastically, I will probably change my pick. This is a really close one and Garrett’s presence, even at less than 100%, would be huge for the Browns’ defense.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Cleveland Browns 26

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +1

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns lost last week to the Jets, but the Jets needed to score twice within two minutes and recover an onside kick to win a game in which the Browns had a 99.9% chance of winning with less than two minutes left and in which the Browns won the first down rate battle by 13.87% and the yards per play battle by 0.23. Including their week 1 win over the Panthers, the Browns rank 3rd in overall efficiency through two weeks and would be 2-0 if they just recovered an onside kick or if Nick Chubb had taken a knee at the 1-yard line instead of scoring. 

The Browns have faced a pretty easy schedule, but they also rank slightly above average in my roster rankings, despite starting backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, as they have one of the most talented rosters in the league around the quarterback position. They’ll be short-handed this week without talented edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, but they will otherwise be healthy, including the return of right tackle Jack Conklin, who missed the first two games of the season recovering from a knee injury suffered last season. 

The Steelers, meanwhile, will be without edge defender TJ Watt, probably their most important player. The Steelers’ offense, which ranked 28th in efficiency in 2020 and 30th last season, ranks 31st through two games this season and their defense isn’t nearly as good without Watt. While the Browns could easily be 2-0 right now if they had just recovered an onside kick, the Steelers could easily be 0-2 right now if the Bengals had just made an extra point, in a game the Steelers would have lost despite a +5 turnover margin, which is not a consistent metric week-to-week. The Bengals won the first down rate battle and yards per play battle in that game by 11.36% and 0.22 respectively and that was with Watt playing most of the game.

In terms of overall efficiency, the Steelers rank 30th through two games and, without Watt, they don’t rank much higher than that in my roster rankings. I have these two teams about 5.5 points apart, giving us a calculated line of about Cleveland -7.5 at home, so we’re getting good line value with the Browns as 4.5-point favorites. If the Browns had a 2-0 record and the Steelers were 0-2, I suspect this line would be closer to 7.5, probably around a touchdown and, as I mentioned, that could easily be the case right now, if not for special teams disasters. This isn’t a big play, but I like the Browns enough to bet them this week.

Cleveland Browns 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -4.5

Confidence: Medium