Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign DT Henry Melton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Henry Melton was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 6th ranked in 2012, both seasons with the Bears, but he was limited to 125 snaps in 3 games in 2013 by a torn ACL. As he was playing on the franchise tag in 2013, he hit free agency last off-season and signed with the Cowboys. The Cowboys only paid 2.25 million plus incentives for Melton in 2014, but declined his 3-year, 24 million dollar option this off-season.

Melton played well when on the field in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle, but he had recurring knee problems and played just 433 snaps. He’s still relatively young (going into his age 29 season), he played well last season when on the field, and he could bounce back in his 2nd year since the injury. This deal will pay him 3.75 million on a one-year deal in 2015 with another 1.25 million available in incentives, so it’s pretty low risk and the upside is huge. Melton will work in rotation with Gerald McCoy and Clinton McDonald. Being reunited with Tampa Bay head coach Lovie Smith, a strong defensive mind who was Melton’s head coach in Chicago for his best years, certainly doesn’t hurt him.

Grade: A

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Needs

Quarterback

Josh McCown struggled mightily in 11 starts for the Buccaneers this season, completing 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, winning just once. He’s obviously not a long-term solution, going into his age 36 season and might not even be back at his scheduled 5.25 million dollar salary, which is non-guaranteed. Mike Glennon is younger, but he wasn’t much better, completing 57.6% for his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Lovie Smith doesn’t seem to be a big fan of him, bringing in McCown and naming him the starter ahead of Glennon instantly and stubbornly sticking with McCown even when McCown was struggling and the team wasn’t going anywhere, only playing Glennon when McCown was hurt. With the first overall pick in the draft at their disposal, Heisman winner Marcus Mariota looks like as much of a lock as you can get at this point. If it’s not him, it’ll be former Heisman winner Jameis Winston.

Guard

The Buccaneers were so desperate for guard help before the season started that they traded a 4th round pick and promising young tight end Tim Wright to the Patriots for Logan Mankins, even though he was aging, declining, and had a large salary and even though he barely had any time to learn the offense before the start of the season. Mankins was solid, but he’s going into his age 33 season and they have a huge hole opposite him anyway. Patrick Omameh struggled on the other side of the line.

Defensive End

Michael Johnson struggled mightily in the first season of his big contract, but he was hurt and he could easily bounce back next season. The Buccaneers do need another edge rusher opposite him though. Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers were their 1st and 2nd round picks in 2011, but neither panned out and both are free agents. William Gholston, who started opposite Johnson last season, was underwhelming.

Safety

The Buccaneers used the 7th overall pick on Mark Barron in 2012 and then gave Dashon Goldson a massive contract the following off-season. Those were supposed to be their starting safeties for the future, but neither of them worked out. Barron was traded to Tampa Bay mid-season in 2014, while Goldson could be cut this off-season, with no guaranteed money left on his contract and after two awful seasons. Major Wright, who took over as the starter after Barron was traded, is a free agent. If he’s not re-signed, they’ll need to add two new safeties and I think they need to add at least one either way.

Middle Linebacker

Mason Foster was their starter at middle linebacker for 4 years after they took him in the 3rd round in 2011, but he was underwhelming and this off-season he’s a free agent. Lovie Smith spoke about upgrading that spot last off-season and finding someone who was a better fit for the Tampa 2 scheme. The Buccaneers were only able to bring in Dane Fletcher, who lost the position battle in the off-season and stayed a reserve. It’ll be tough, but Smith will try to find another Brian Urlacher.

Cornerback

Alterraun Verner did a solid job in his first season in Tampa Bay, but they struggled at the opposite cornerback spot. Both Johnthan Banks and Leonard Johnson struggled as the #2 and #3 cornerbacks respectively. They could add some competition this off-season. Banks, a 2013 2nd round pick, has struggled in his first 2 years in the league and should be pushed for his starting job.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson were a great wide receiver duo this season, both going over 1000 yards despite poor quarterback play on a 2-14 team. However, they don’t really have much depth behind them at wide receiver. Jackson is going into his age 32 season anyway and he has a large salary and cap number in each of the final two years of his deal in 2015 and 2016. They probably won’t outright cut him this off-season, but there were reports that they were interested in trading him at the deadline mid-season and either way he’s not going to be around too much longer and they don’t have a successor.

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

DE Adrian Clayborn

Adrian Clayborn was a first round pick of the Buccaneers in 2011 and he had a decent rookie year, struggling mightily against the run, but getting good pass rush and overall grading out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus. The story of his career from there was injuries though, as he’s played just 20 games over the past 3 seasons. He missed all but 3 games in 2012 with a torn ACL, struggled mightily in his first year back in 2013, grading out 47th out of 52 eligible 4-3 defensive ends, and, just when there was optimism for his future again in 2014, he tore his biceps and missed all but 1 game. There’s still upside here and he’s a decent flier for a pass rush needy team, but he hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy and after 4 years in the league he’s still unproven.

S Major Wright

A 2010 3rd round pick, Major Wright started 42 games in 4 seasons in Chicago. His best season was 2012, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 22nd ranked safety, but he had his worst year at the worst time, grading out dead last at his position in 2013, a contract year. He was limited to one-year deals in free agency and ended up with Smith again in Tampa Bay, starting the year as a backup, but moving into the lineup when Mark Barron was traded to St. Louis mid-season. Wright made 7 starts graded out about average on 520 snaps and should be given an opportunity to at least compete for a starting job wherever he ends up this off-season. Tampa Bay keeping him would make sense. He played 3 years for Lovie Smith in Chicago and he’s played his best football in Smith’s defense in his career.

MLB Mason Foster

Foster was a starter from the word go in Tampa Bay, after they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2011. In 4 years with the team, Foster played 57 of 64 games (though he missed 6 this season), starting all but 3 of them. However, he graded out below average in all 4 seasons, including 43rd out of 60 eligible this season. He’ll draw interest as a starter on the open market because of his experience and he could end up back in Tampa Bay, but whichever team signs him shouldn’t expect much.

Cap Casualty Candidates

S Dashon Goldson

One of ex-GM Mark Dominik’s patented free agency whiffs, the Buccaneers signed Goldson to a 5-year, 41.25 million dollar contract 2 off-seasons ago and he proceeded to be one of the worst safeties in the game over the past 2 seasons. Goldson was Pro Football Focus’ 81st ranked safety out of 86 eligible in 2013 and their 87th ranked safety out of 88 eligible in 2014. With no ties to the current regime and a non-guaranteed 7.5 million dollar salary scheduled for 2015, Goldson will almost definitely be cut this off-season, a move which would clear 4 million in cap space immediately.

QB Josh McCown

This one you can’t blame Mark Dominik for. The Buccaneers new regime signed Josh McCown to a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal last off-season, a reasonable value considering what guys like Chad Henne and Michael Vick got last off-season, but Lovie Smith named him the starter as soon as he arrived in town, even though Mike Glennon had shown flashes as a 3rd round rookie in 2013. McCown, who randomly had 5 good starts in Chicago in 2013, was going into his age 35 season and hadn’t had a season with a QB rating over 70 since 2005, so it was a weird move. McCown predictably regressed in 2014, completing just 56.3% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked quarterback out of 39 eligible and went 1-10 in his 11 starts. Smith stubbornly stuck with him even as he was struggling and refused to give Glennon a look, even with nothing to play for. Going into his age 36 season, with the Buccaneers likely taking Marcus Mariota #1 overall, McCown probably won’t be kept at a non-guaranteed 5.25 million dollar salary for 2015, though he could be retained at a cheaper rate as a veteran backup.

G Logan Mankins

It just seems like whenever the Buccaneers make a big splash, whether it be a high draft pick, a big free agent signing, or a prominent trade, it backfires. The Buccaneers sent a mid-round pick and promising young tight end Tim Wright to the New England Patriots for Logan Mankins right before the start of the season, a move many saw as a complete steal. The issue is Mankins is aging, now going into his age 33 season. Mankins was solid in 2014, but he wasn’t as good as he’s been in the past and the rebuilding Buccaneers might not want to give a declining player a 7 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2015. Because they acquired him through a trade, there will be no cap penalty for the Buccaneers releasing him.

WR Vincent Jackson

This one is unlikely, but if the Buccaneers want to go into a complete rebuild, they could try to trade or cut the aging Jackson. Jackson played well in 2014, catching 70 passes for 1002 yards and 2 touchdowns, while grading out slightly above average on Pro Football Focus, but he’s owed 9.78 million non-guaranteed in 2015 and the Buccaneers could save 7.78 million of that on the cap immediately by letting him go. He’ll be in his age 32 season in 2015. They were known to be interested in trading him at the trade deadline, but couldn’t find any takers.

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13)

The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs last week with their 5th straight home loss, a loss to Atlanta which dropped them to 6-9 on the season. However, they’ve played well enough this season to suggest that if they played an infinite amount of 16 game seasons, they’d make the playoffs more often than not. It didn’t work out that way for them this year, but they’re still better than their record, which gives us value with them here as mere 3.5 point favorites in Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been absolutely terrible this year, moving the chains at a 66.42% rate, as opposed to 74.75% for their opponents, a differential of -8.33% that ranks 30th in the NFL. The Saints have a horrible defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.99% rate, but their offense has moved the chains at a significantly better rate than their opponents, as they’ve moved them at a 79.17% rate, among the best in the league, led by quarterback Drew Brees, who leads the NFL in completion percentage at 69.6 and has an outside shot of finishing with his 3rd career season of 70%+ completion percentage, as many as every other quarterback in NFL history combined. The Saints differential of 2.19% ranks 11th in the NFL. This line is way too low, especially when you take into account the Buccaneers’ home struggles in recent years. They are 14-32 ATS at home since 2009, including 0-7 straight up and 2-5 ATS this season. This season, they move the chains at a 67.20% rate at home, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a pathetic differential of -6.99%.

Why are the Saints 6-9 if they move the chains so well? Well, their defense has been horrible, but we’ve already established their offense has done more than enough to make up for it, so why isn’t it showing up in the standings? Well, a -11 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, and a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less have a lot to do with it. Fortunately, those are much easier problems to fix than pure talent level, even from one week to another. Drew Brees is 23-7 ATS off of a loss with Sean Payton on the sideline since 2008 anyway. That talent level should shine through here against a drastically inferior opponent with minimal homefield advantage. I have a lot of confidence in New Orleans.

New Orleans Saints 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)

The Packers haven’t been nearly the same team on the road this season. That was evident last week in a loss in Buffalo and it’s been evident all year as they’ve beaten just one team by more than 4 points on the road all season, relevant considering this line is all the way up at 10.5 On the season, they move the chains at a 77.57% rate, as opposed to 78.92% for their opponents, a differential of -1.35%. However, there are reasons to like them here as big road favorites. For one, Tampa Bay isn’t great at home, going 14-31 ATS at home since 2009, including 0-7 straight up and 2-5 ATS this season. That makes taking the Packers as massive road favorites less scary, especially with Gerald McCoy out for the Buccaneers.

Two, the Packers are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 137-110 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 1989, including 101-86 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is pretty good off of a loss in his career, going 20-10 ATS in that spot.

The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot with the Saints coming to town next week. The early line has them projected as 4.5 point home underdogs in that one. Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs. On top of that, non-divisional home underdogs are 15-32 ATS before being divisional home underdogs since 2002. It’s hard to be confident in the Packers on the road, even against a bad team with minimal homefield advantage, but I like their chances of bouncing back in a big way this week and they should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10.5

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-11) at Carolina Panthers (4-8-1)

Cam Newton is out for this one with a back injury suffered in a car accident this week. That caused this line to move from 5 to 3.5 with Derek Anderson coming in to make his 2nd start of the season. That’s not nearly enough of a line movement to compensate. Sure, Newton hasn’t been at his best this season, dealing with a variety of nagging injuries, but he’s still lead this offense to a solid 73.44% rate in 12 starts this season, despite having limited talent around him on the offensive line, in the receiving corps, and at the running back position. The defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 74.82% rate, is a much bigger part of the reason why this team is 4-8-1.

Sure, Anderson beat these Buccaneers in Tampa Bay earlier this season, but that’s not much of an accomplishment, as the Buccaneers are 14-31-1 ATS at home since 2009 (14-32 straight up), as opposed to 26-20-1 ATS (16-31 straight up) on the road. This season has essentially followed that same pattern as they are winless at home in 6 games (1-5 ATS), but 4-3 ATS (2-5 straight up) on the road. Just because Anderson won a close game in Tampa Bay earlier this season doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily win again here in Carolina, especially with Greg Hardy no longer on the field. And even if he does win, this line gives us some breathing room with the Buccaneers.

That win earlier this season by the Panthers actually puts them in a bad spot this week. Divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate. The Anderson lead Panthers and the Buccaneers are essentially even and there’s a good chance the Buccaneers get their revenge this week.

The Panthers were already in a bad spot coming off of a huge upset win in New Orleans last week as teams are 48-70 ATS since 1989 off of an upset win as 10+ point underdogs, including 25-40 ATS off a divisional upset win as 10+ point underdogs. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are in a good spot in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 111-76 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 94-54 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Buccaneers have a very tough game against the Packers in Tampa Bay on deck next week.  Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 9-24 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, and 1-7 ATS before being 10+ point home underdogs (the early line in Green Bay -10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both. However, the Panthers aren’t very good either and there’s enough stuff here to be confident in the Buccaneers as long as the line is a field goal or more.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Carolina Panthers 16 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Lions, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) at Detroit Lions (8-4)

This line is too high. The Lions aren’t as good as their record, as they’ve gone 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.83% rate, as opposed to 70.83% for their opponents, a differential of 0.00%. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have just 2 losses by more than 10 points, which is relevant considering this line is at 10. On the road, they only have 1 loss by more than 10 points. They also have road victories as big underdogs in Washington and Pittsburgh and they played close games against solid teams in Cleveland and New Orleans. They rank 29th, moving the chains at a 68.34% rate, as opposed to 74.18% for their opponents, a differential of -5.83%.

The Lions are also in a bad spot because they are 1-11 ATS since 2011 off of a win by 10 or more, including 0-7 ATS as favorites. In those 7 instances as a favorite, they’ve only won twice, meaning they will upset 5 times in a 7 game span. The Buccaneers should be able to keep this one close. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Buccaneers are in a bad spot with a trip to Carolina on deck. Teams are 51-82 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002.

Detroit Lions 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +10

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9)

At first glance, the Buccaneers are in a terrible spot. After this game, they have to go to Detroit, where they could easily be double digit underdogs. The early line was 9, but after Detroit looked good on national TV on Thanksgiving that line could be pushed into double figures. Teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs as a tough game like that upcoming presents a massive distraction. Even if the line ends up being 9 or 9.5, it’s still worth mentioning and the logic could still hold either way. Going off of that, non-divisional home underdogs are 99-124 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs, no matter what the following week’s line is.

Making matters even worse, the Buccaneers are an embarrassing 13-31 ATS since 2009 at home, including 5-20 ATS as home underdogs. This season, they are 0-5 ATS at home and haven’t won any of those 5 games despite being favored in 3 of them (Carolina, St. Louis, and Minnesota) and playing 4 of them against 4 teams that are currently a combined 11-28-1. The only team they’ve played at home this season that this currently better than 4-7 was the Ravens who blew them out 48-17.

However, despite the Buccaneers’ terrible home record and the Bengals’ reasonable road record (3-2 straight up and against the spread), the Buccaneers have actually performed better in rate of moving the chains differential at home this season than the Bengals have on the road, regardless of what the records say. The Buccaneers have won the chains battle in 3 of 5 home games this season, while the Bengals have lost it in 3 of 5 road games.

On the season, the Bengals have moved the chains at a 68.35% rate, as opposed to 75.84% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -7.50%. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have moved them at a 71.72% rate, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, at home, a differential of -3.07%. It’s not enough for me to take the Buccaneers, but it’s enough for me not to be confident in Cincinnati, especially since they take on Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Denver, and Pittsburgh in their final 4 games after this random game against a 2-9 non-conference opponent and especially since the public is all over Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3.5

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)

The Bears have a much tougher game next week against the Lions in Detroit in just 4 days on Thanksgiving after this game against the Buccaneers. Favorites of 6 or more (which the Bears are here) are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more (the early line is 7) since 2002, while favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Buccaneers, as bad as their record looks, have had a bunch of close games this season, especially on the road where they’ve had win in Pittsburgh and Washington and close losses in Cleveland and New Orleans. They can keep this one close too against a likely distracted Chicago team.

Speaking of the Bears being 6 point favorites, they are 4-6 and teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. However, the Bears do just need to go 3-3 over their final 6 games and they’re favored in 3 of those final 6 games, which would put them at 7-9. They’ve also played a bit better than their record, moving the chains at a 76.62% rate, as opposed to 75.59% for their opponents, a differential of 1.03% that ranks 14th in the NFL. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, rank 29th, moving the chains at a 70.21% rate, as opposed to 75.81% for their opponents, a differential of -5.60%. That does suggest that this line at 6 points is more than reasonable, before you take into account the bad situation the Bears are in and how the Buccaneers have played better on the road this season than at home.

The Buccaneers are also in their 2nd straight road game, which tends to be an easier road game as teams get adjusted to the road.  Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Teams tend to adjust to the road in their 2nd of two road games. However, the Bengals are coming off of a big upset win in New Orleans last week as touchdown underdogs and teams are 39-47 ATS since 1989 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs of 7 or more. They could be overconfident here after that, which would nullify any advantage they get from being in their 2nd straight road game.

However, I still think the Buccaneers can have another solid showing on the road and keeping it close against a distracted Bears team. The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because the Buccaneers have a fairly tough game next week when they host the Bengals. Teams are 57-87 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more (the early line is Cincinnati -3.5). However, I still think there’s enough to be somewhat confident in the Buccaneers.

Chicago Bears 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +6

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Commanders, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6)

The Redskins stand at 3-6, but they are still favored by 7.5 points here over the Buccaneers. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% of the time historically. I don’t see the Redskins finishing 4-3 or better over their final 7 games. The Buccaneers aren’t good, but they’ve played some decent games on the road this season, including a win in Pittsburgh and close losses in Cleveland and New Orleans. The Buccaneers have actually only lost three games by more than a touchdown this season, as bad as their record is.

The Redskins also have a tough game next week, going to San Francisco. Teams are 76-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, touchdown favorites are 37-74 ATS since 1989 before being touchdown underdogs, which the Redskins almost definitely will be next week. The Buccaneers will also be road underdogs in Chicago next week, but teams are actually 96-70 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs.

The only reason this isn’t a high confidence pick is because the Redskins are better than most 3-6 teams as they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at a 73.08% rate, as opposed to 72.53% for their opponents, a differential of 0.55% and they should only get better offensively with Robert Griffin back from injury (though losing Orakpo defensively is a big loss). RG3 looked fine in his return before the bye in Minnesota and now he goes into his 2nd start back from injury after a bye. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers rank 29th, moving the chains at a 70.50% rate, as opposed to 76.38% for their opponents, a differential of -5.88%. However, they should still be the right side.

Washington Redskins 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)

The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense as road favorites tend to be significantly superior teams and it’s logical that significantly superior teams would be able to play really well off of a bye. The Falcons haven’t played well at all this season, but they’re still significantly better than the lowly Buccaneers. The Falcons rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.02% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.74%, while the Buccaneers rank 30th, moving the chains at a 69.74% rate, as opposed to 76.51% for their opponents, a differential of -6.78%. The Buccaneers will be even worse this week with Alterraun Verner out with injury.

The issue here is that the Falcons are only 2.5 point favorites. When you break down those aforementioned trends even more, you see that teams are 40-12 ATS off of a bye as road favorites of 3 or more and just 10-9 ATS as favorites of less than 3, including 21-4 ATS and 3-2 ATS respectively in divisional matchups. However, the logic still does hold that the Falcons would be better prepared for this game as a significantly better team on the road off a bye. The Falcons are even 3 point favorites in some places. I don’t think that trend can be completely discounted just because the Falcons aren’t 3 point favorites everywhere.

On top of that, they generally do well off a loss in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, going 24-13 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams on long losing streaks like the Falcons are on right now do well off a bye, as teams on 5+ game losing streaks are 22-9 ATS off a bye. The bye tends to give teams like that a chance to collect themselves and come back stronger after the bye. I like the Falcons’ bounce back chances here against a terrible Tampa Bay team. Tampa Bay has been especially bad at home over the past few years, going 13-30 ATS at home since 2009.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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