Chargers

San Diego Chargers Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Danario Alexander

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Chargers, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the San Diego Chargers, that player is wide receiver Danario Alexander.

Alexander had a very productive career at the University of Missouri, especially in his senior year, when he caught 113 passes for 1781 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, in spite of that, Alexander went undrafted in 2010 due to serious concerns about his left knee, which had been operated on 4 times. Alexander spent 2 years in St. Louis after making the practice squad as an undrafted free agent and he had some big games, including 5 games of 72 yards or more.

However, he struggled with injuries to his knee and hamstring and played just 18 games in those 2 seasons, catching a total of 46 passes for 737 yards and 3 touchdowns. After he had a 5th knee surgery before the 2012 season, Alexander was waived/injured by the Rams and became a free agent. Despite his natural ability at 6-5 217, his collegiate production, and the fact that he flashed on several occasions in St. Louis, he lasted as a free agent until October 18th, when he was signed by the receiver desperate Chargers.

With the Chargers, he began playing serious snaps by week 9 and became a starter by week 10. In 9 games with the team, he caught 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 66 catches for 1170 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. Those 658 yards on 314 routes run equaled 2.10 yards per route run, 17th in the NFL among receivers who played as many snaps he did. He caught those 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns on 54 targets and only 2 passes intended for him were intercepted, good for a QB rating when thrown to of 134.1, best in the NFL among receivers who played as many snaps as he did. For comparison, Philip Rivers’ overall QB rating was 88.6

This off-season, he was slapped with an original round tender, which means anyone could have signed him to an offer sheet and not had to surrender draft pick compensation (the Chargers had right of to match any deal, however). Though several teams reportedly considered doing so, none did, likely scared off by his history of knee injuries and the commitment that comes with a multi-year deal. That’s also probably why San Diego didn’t slap a higher tender on him. His history of knee injuries still is the huge elephant in the room with him. They could creep up at any time.

However, if they don’t, Alexander could have a real chance at having a 1000 yard season and being the Chargers’ #1 receiver. He’s plenty talented and doesn’t even turn 25 until August. The Chargers, meanwhile, have a ton of question marks at wide receiver. Malcom Floyd is a marginal talent who turns 32 this season. Vincent Brown is coming off a lost season with a broken ankle and is still very unproven. Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem combined for 37 catches in the first year of multi-year deals last off-season and might not both make the roster. Keenan Allen, meanwhile, is just a 3rd round rookie. Alexander has the most talent by far. He’ll just need to stay healthy.

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San Diego Chargers 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Chargers

3 years ago everyone was calling for Norv Turner to be fired because of the Chargers’ tendency to have strong regular seasons and then choke in the playoffs every year. I bet the Chargers would trade the last three years for that. Over the last 3 years, the Chargers have begun their underachieving earlier, missing the playoffs in all 3 seasons.

On one hand, things are looking up. Norv Turner was finally fired, as well the architect of this mess, GM AJ Smith. On the other hand, Philip Rivers, once one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, has regressed mightily over the last 2 seasons. It’s tough to tell why. It’s possible that the 31-year-old quarterback aged early like Carson Palmer. It’s also possible that a lack of offensive supporting cast is to blame. The Chargers will have to focus on the offense this offseason to try to get something out of Rivers, but it wouldn’t shock me if Rivers were throwing for 4000 yards on a 4-12 Raiders team in 3 years. Just saying.

Offensive Tackle

Darren Sproles. LaDainian Tomlinson. Kris Dielman. Marcus McNeill. Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates. Philip Rivers once had great offensive talent around him on the ground, through the air, and on the line. Of those 6, only Gates remains and he’s a shell of his former shelf and the guys the Chargers replaced them with are pathetic. Ryan Mathews and Ronnie Brown take over LT’s and Sproles’ roles at running back. Tyronne Greene and Mike Harris start on the line in place of Dielman and McNeill. Vincent Jackson is gone, replaced by Malcom Floyd and Danario Alexander. You can’t adequately judge what kind of quarterback Philip Rivers is at this stage of his career in these circumstances. Only a few quarterbacks in the NFL would be able to make anything out of this mess.

The offensive line is the worst. AJ Smith had been the GM since 2004 and he only once used a pick higher than the 3rd round on the offensive line and it showed as they had no depth when injuries hit Marcus McNeill and Kris Dielman, who had to retire early. Left tackle McNeill retired early because of neck problems, while right tackle Jeromey Clary has always been a liability. It’s fine to have one weakness on the offensive line like Clary, but he was actually the better of the two starting tackles this season.

Jared Gaither was given a significant contract after 5 starts with the team last off-season, but he predictably couldn’t stay healthy and didn’t play a snap, forcing undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the left side. Making just 12 starts because of injury, Harris still managed to grade out dead last among eligible tackles on ProFootballFocus. As a result, the Chargers ranked 31st in the NFL in pass block efficiency, even worse than Arizona and only ahead of Indianapolis. They need at least one new starter here, if not two. Eric Fisher will be considered at 11 in the NFL Draft.

Guard

You can’t just blame the tackles for this horrific offensive line. Tyronne Greene and Rex Hadnot split starts at left guard in the absence of retired Kris Dielman and neither played well. Right guard Louis Vazquez, meanwhile, was their only offensive lineman who played well this season. The problem is he’s a free agent. He’ll obviously need to be re-signed. I don’t want to see what this offensive line would look like without him.

Cornerback

Starting cornerbacks Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason are both free agents, but neither one of them played well this past season. Jammer’s best days are well behind him as he turns 34 in June, while Antoine Cason has been up and down in his career since going in the 1st round in 2008, but he picked a bad year to be down as this was his contract year. Even if he returns as a starter, they need a replacement for Quentin Jammer, to go with Marcus Gilchrist, a promising nickel back, and Cason long term.

Rush Linebacker

The Chargers need a bookend long term for 2012 1st round pick Melvin Ingram. Jarret Johnson and Shaun Phillips are both heading into their age 32 seasons. The former isn’t much of a pass rusher, as his strength is stuffing the run, while Phillips is a free agent this off-season. Meanwhile, Antawn Barnes proved his random 11 sack performance in 2011 was a complete fluke. He had just 3 this season and barely played down the stretch.

Running Back

Unsurprisingly, after firing Norv Turner and AJ Smith, a report came out that the Chargers weren’t as high on Ryan Mathews’ upside as they were when they took him 12th overall in 2010. Turner and Smith had big plans for him, but that didn’t get them very far. He managed just 184 carries because of injuries and averaged just 3.7 YPC when he did play. Mathews actually had a strong season in 2011 when paired with another back so they should add a compliment for him and insurance since he gets hurt so much. He’s clearly not the lead back they thought he was.

Middle Linebacker

Takeo Spikes may have played his last NFL snap. No one would be shocked if he hung them up. Even if he returns, he’ll be 37 in 2013. They need a successor. Jonas Mouton was a 2nd round pick of the old regime in 2011, but he’s played just 5 snaps in 2 seasons, so it’s unlikely he’s seen as a long term solution, especially with a new regime coming in.

Quarterback

Right now, I don’t think Philip Rivers is the problem. It’s his supporting cast. They should focus on adding talent around him rather than adding competition for him. The goal should be to determine Rivers’ future as the quarterback of the Chargers by the off-season after the 2014 season, when they’ll have to cut him, owed 15.75 million in a contract year, or sign him to a long-term extension into his mid-30s. However, adding a developmental quarterback through the draft isn’t a bad idea just in case he really is Carson Palmer 2.0.

3-4 Defensive End

Jon Gruden is physical incapable of saying anything bad about anyone, so I got a kick out of how he described Vaughn Martin during the 2011 season, saying something along the lines of “once this guy learns how to play, he’s going to be an excellent football player.” That’s not inaccurate, but he doesn’t seem to have learned how to play, struggling in every season as a rotational 3-4 defensive end. He’s a free agent this off-season and the Chargers should bring in another guy to rotate with Kendall Reyes and Corey Liuget, as well as to move inside at times and spell nose tackle Cam Thomas. Aubrayo Franklin is also a free agent this off-season.

Kicker

Nick Novak is a free agent who will need to be retained or replaced if he’s not brought back.

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (4-11) at San Diego Chargers (6-9)

Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. There’s just no way to predict what kind of effort either side is going to give.

The Raiders do have a powerful trend on their side as they are road dogs off a road loss. Teams are 86-51 ATS in this spot since 2008. The Chargers are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games (3-3 ATS on the road in that same time period). This is also a game they’re expected to do something in. They are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as favorites or dogs of a field goal or less and 2-0 ATS as 3.5+ dogs in that same time period.

However, the Chargers do have one trend on their side as sub .500 home favorites are 24-10 ATS during week 17 since 2002. I haven’t used that one in any other games where it applies because I didn’t like the lack of line value we were getting with the host, but here I do. The Chargers rank 21st in net points per drive at -0.18, while the Raiders rank 29th at 0.80. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that the Chargers should be favored by 9.5. That doesn’t even take into account that the Raiders will be starting Terrelle Pryor in his first NFL start.

The Chargers are also, as bad as they’ve been, 4-1 ATS inside the division this year (3-7 ATS outside the division). On top of that, they do always close seasons out well under Norv Turner, going 21-8 ATS in week 14 or later since 2007, including 7-1 ATS in the division. As bad as they’ve been over the past 3 years, they are still 8-3 ATS in weeks 14-17. I expected them to send Norv Turner out in style, but again, it’s hard to back either side.

Public lean: ?

San Diego Chargers 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against spread: San Diego -10 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 24 (+4)

Record: 6-9

Net points per drive: -0.18 (21st)

DVOA: -8.9% (22nd)

Weighted DVOA: -6.8% (21st)

Studs

FS Eric Weddle: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 2 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 2 attempts

ROLB Jarret Johnson: 2 quarterback hurries on 13 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

LE Kendall Reyes: 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 stops

NT Antonio Garay: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 14 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

WR Michael Spurlock: 4 punt returns for 107 yards and a touchdown, 4 kickoff returns for 66 yards, did not catch a pass on 15 pass snaps

Duds

RB Jackie Battle: Rushed for 49 yards (39 after contact) on 19 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 1 attempt

LT Michael Harris: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

C Nick Hardwick: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 7 attempts

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San Diego Chargers at New York Jets: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jets

San Diego Chargers (5-9) at New York Jets (6-8)

Ugh. How am I supposed to pick between these two teams? The Chargers have been incredibly inconsistent and the Jets are a mediocre at best team who has just been eliminated from the playoff race making a controversial move to start a former 7th round pick who has never made an NFL start. There’s a lot of conflicting stuff on both sides.

For the Jets, they’ve beaten almost every mediocre or worse team they’ve played this season and the Chargers certainly qualify. They’re 0-6 against the likes of New England (twice), Seattle, Pittsburgh, Houston, and San Francisco, but 6-2 in their other 8 games, beating Buffalo, Indianapolis, Miami, Arizona, St. Louis, and Jacksonville. Their only two losses against mediocre or worse teams were last week in Tennessee in a 5 turnover shit show and in a rematch game against the Dolphins.

Speaking of that 5 turnover shit show, Greg McElroy should be an upgrade over Mark Sanchez, but do we really know? I normally hate picking games featuring quarterbacks making their first NFL start and this is no different. I have no idea what to expect from McElroy and furthermore, I have no idea what to expect from the rest of the team. What if they just completely quit now that their season is over and their quarterback has been benched?

For the Chargers, they’re actually in a great spot as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs. The Jets go to Buffalo next week, while the Chargers just host the Raiders. Teams are 118-61 ATS in this spot since 2008. The Chargers are also typically a good December team. They’re 22-11 ATS in week 14 or later in the Philip Rivers era, including 9-2 ATS as dogs.

We’re also getting line value with them as they rank 22nd in net points per drive at -0.23, while the Jets rank 25th at -0.38. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that the Jets should be only favored by 1. However, DVOA only backs this up somewhat as the Chargers rank 23rd in regular and 24th in weighted, while the Jets rank 24th and 25th respectively and it’s not really enough to make any pick off that.

Besides, the Chargers have also fallen flat in a bunch of games where the trends favored them. The last time they covered as anything other than touchdown plus dogs was way back in week 9 and the time before that was way back in week 4, both instances against the crappy Chiefs. They somehow pulled off a huge upset in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, but that was when they were touchdown plus dogs and nothing at all was expected of them.

They followed that up by falling completely flat at home last week as favorites, even though it was December. Maybe here as December dogs, it’ll be different, but I don’t know. They already know their Head Coach and GM are getting fired at the end of the season. They reacted well to that news in their first game after the news broke, beating Pittsburgh, but then there was last week. What if they’ve completely quit?

They’re also 2-9 ATS as non-divisional dogs in the last 2 seasons and they are a West Coast team playing at 1 PM on the East Coast here, a situation teams generally don’t cover in. I’m going to just fade the heavy public underdog here and take the Jets and hope that the Chargers have quit and the Jets haven’t, that a quarterback change and bottoming out was good for them, but this would rank last in any confidence pools. If you actually make a play on this game, you have a problem.

Public lean: San Diego (80% range)

Sharps lean: SD 5 NYJ 2

Final thoughts: 7 people are crazy.

New York Jets 17 San Diego Chargers 13

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 17 (+7)

Record: 5-9

Net points per drive: -0.23 (22nd)

DVOA: -11.8% (23rd)

Weighted DVOA: -10.3% (24th)

The Chargers are 5-9 with 2 winnable games left on the schedule. The problem is, they don’t win winnable games. They’ve lost their last 4 games and 7 of their last 8 when favored or as small underdogs. They somehow beat Pittsburgh as huge underdogs, when the the game seems winnable, they don’t seem to get it done. They should be able to beat the Raiders week 17, but the key word is should. Even with a game against the Jets this week, I think they’re most likely to finish 6-10.

Studs

RG Louis Vasquez: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 1 attempt

LOLB Shaun Phillips: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop

LE Antonio Garay: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

RT Reggie Wells: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

LT Michael Harris: Allowed 2 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 12 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

LG Rex Hadnot: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

WR Danario Alexander: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 1 drop, 1 penalty

CB Antoine Cason: Allowed 3 catches for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

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Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chargers, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-8)

I picked the Chargers to win at home against the Ravens and Bengals respectively in week 12 and 13 because, among other reasons, they always start playing really well at this point in the season, even when their season has been lost. Well, they couldn’t quite close the deal in either of those games, though they made it close and probably should have beaten the Ravens, but Ray Rice converted an improbable (and maybe poorly called) 4th and 29. Because of this, I stayed away from them in Pittsburgh last week, even though all the trends said they’d cover. Well, what did they do? They not only covered as 7.5 point dogs, but dominated the game, even leading 27-3 at one point.

Finally, it appears they’ve gone on their late season run and I can say with as much confidence as I can about a team that’s burned me before this season that the Chargers have a good chance to now win out with games against the Panthers, Jets, and Raiders. They should continue that momentum from last week. They are now 22-10 ATS in week 14 or later, including 7-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons, even though they’ve had nothing to play for. At home, they are 12-5 ATS.

We’re also getting line value with the Chargers. They rank 18th in net points per drive at -0.08, while the Panthers rank 23rd at -0.38. If you take the difference and multiply that by 11 and add 2.5 points for home field, you get a real line of San Diego -6. In spite of that, they are not a publicly backed favorite as the public is on Carolina. I hate publicly backed dogs, so that’s another reason to take San Diego. They’re also in a bad spot as non-conference road dogs of 3 or more are 10-20 ATS since 1989 off a divisional win as home dogs of 3 or more.

This would be a bigger play on the Chargers if not for a few things. One, I’ve obviously been burned with them before. It’s hard to trust them. Maybe now that they got their one big win as big dogs they’ll go back to the way they were before and struggle to win in a new dynamic in a game they’re supposed to win or at least keep close.

The second reason is that a good trend is on Carolina’s side. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and they host the Raiders next week. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and the Chargers go to New York to play the Jets next week. When all 3 games (current, next, opponent’s next) are non-divisional, that trend is 35-15 ATS since 2008.

Third, while net points per drive says we’re getting line value with the Chargers, DVOA paints a different picture. The Panthers rank 16th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Chargers rank 23rd and 22nd respectively. DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things like schedule. This makes sense as the Panthers are in the much tougher NFC (AFC teams are 6-12 ATS against NFC teams as favorites this season) and also are in one of the tougher divisions, the NFC South, while the Chargers are in the weak AFC West. The AFC West is 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS against the NFC South this year, 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS excluding the Broncos. Still, the Chargers are the pick.

Public lean: Carolina (60% range)

San Diego Chargers 27 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 2 units

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San Diego Chargers: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 22 (+5)

Record: 5-8

Net points per drive: -0.08 (18th)

DVOA: -8.2% (23rd)

Weighted DVOA: -7.2% (22nd)

Every year they go on a run to save Norv Turner’s job. This week, they got a huge upset in Pittsburgh after word broke that Turner might be fired. With remaining games against the Panthers, Jets, and Raiders, I don’t see what’s stopping them from running the table, though it’s questionable if that’s in the best interest of the organization long term since they aren’t a true playoff contender.

Studs

LG Rex Hadnot: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

RG Louis Vasquez: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 51 yards on 9 attempts

CB Antoine Cason: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles, 1 penalty

FS Eric Weddle: Did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

MLB Demorrio Williams: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 9 yards on 2 attempts, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

ROLB Melvin Ingram: 5 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LE Cam Thomas: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Aubrayo Franklin: 3 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Corey Liuget: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

RB Ryan Mathews: Rushed for 65 yards (58 after contact) on 25 attempts, 2 broken tackles

WR Malcom Floyd: Caught 3 passes for 10 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Quentin Jammer: Allowed 6 catches for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

SS Corey Lynch: Allowed 3 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitzes

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San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Steelers

San Diego Chargers (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

A lot of trends say the Chargers are the right side. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites over the past 2 seasons and the Chargers are favorites next week at home for the Panthers. Meanwhile, road dogs are 57-33 ATS off back-to-back losses as home dogs since 1989. Philip Rivers is also deadly in December, even when their season is over, as it really has been in the last 2 Decembers. He’s 21-10 ATS in week 14 or later, including 6-2 ATS since 2010, and 8-2 ATS as dogs. Meanwhile, on the Steelers side of things, they are coming off an emotional, close comeback win against the divisional rival Ravens as big underdogs and they might not get up for the crappy Chargers. Favorites are 9-17 ATS as a close win (1-3) as touchdown plus divisional favorites since 1989.

However, all the trends said the Chargers would beat the Bengals and Ravens too as small home favorites. Here’s something I wish I knew 3 weeks ago. The Chargers are 1-9 ATS over the past 2 seasons as non-divisional dogs. They don’t get up for these games and it probably won’t be any different this week now that it’s essentially gotten out that everyone in San Diego is going to be canned at the end of the season. Besides, the Chargers have to go across the country for a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team, a situation teams normally struggle in. The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in this spot under Norv Turner.

Calculating real line for this one wouldn’t make a ton of sense because of the fluidity of these two team’s injury situations. Obviously Ben Roethlisberger returns this week, but Troy Polamalu’s return last week should be an equally big deal. After all, their defense allows about 6 points per game fewer since the start of the 2009 season with Polamalu in the lineup rather than without him. They have other major injuries, but the sheer fact that Roethlisberger and Polamalu will be in the lineup in the same game for the first time since week 1 is a pretty big deal. Ike Taylor and LaMarr Woodley being out is important, but then again, they won without both last week.

On the Chargers’ side, their offensive line is in shambles. Already missing left tackle Jared Gaither, who has been replaced by Mike Harris, an undrafted rookie who is playing exactly like you’d expect an undrafted rookie left tackle to play, the Chargers are missing right tackle Jared Gaither, Harris, and left guard Tyronne Greene in this one. This offensive line already surpassed the Cardinals as the worst rated offensive line in the league last weeks, in terms of pass block efficiency. The fact that they’re having to go even deeper into their depth in this one is a very bad sign, especially against Dick LeBeau’s complex blitz schemes.

It’s definitely not a big play on the Steelers because of all of the trends in the Chargers’ favor, but the Chargers probably won’t get up for this game. My biggest concern is that now that they are no longer small dogs, the trends will start to matter as they’ll no longer need to win straight up to cover. They haven’t won straight up against anyone other than the Chiefs since week 2 (when they beat the crappy Titans and before that they beat the crappy Raiders), but they could easily get a backdoor cover here like they did in a very similar situation in Denver a few weeks back. The Steelers are still the play though.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (60% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 18 SD 2

Final thoughts: Tempted to boost this to 2 units, but I’m terrified of the backdoor cover. I just have the feeling that now that the Chargers won’t need to win to cover, they’ll get it done and screw me over if I make this any bigger.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 San Diego Chargers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 18 (-4)

Record: 4-8

Net points per drive: -0.14 (19th)

DVOA: -8.3% (23rd)

Weighted DVOA: -6.8% (22nd)

Studs

LG Rex Hadnot: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

SS Corey Lynch: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 attempt, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Kevin Haslem: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

LT Michael Harris: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 57 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 carry

RG Louis Vasquez: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 57 pass block snaps

TE Antonio Gates: Caught 6 passes for 49 yards on 8 attempts on 54 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

LE Vaughn Martin: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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