Colts

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (6-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-6)

Minnesota was dealt a huge blow when they lost safety Harrison Smith for likely the rest of the regular season with an ankle injury. They were impressive in their first game without him last week in Jacksonville, but he’s arguably the best safety in football and the Vikings’ best defensive player, so he’s not an easy player to replace. He’s as important to this defense as Earl Thomas is to the Seahawks, but his injury doesn’t get nearly the attention that Thomas’ did. The good news for the Vikings is they get top offensive lineman Joe Berger back from a 2-game absence with a concussion and Adrian Peterson is expected to return for the first time since week 2 with a torn meniscus, though how effective he’ll be in his first game back is a major question mark.

The Colts, meanwhile, have plenty of injury problems, as has been the case all year. They’re missing 3 starters on the offensive line, including left guard Jack Mewhort, who is probably their best offensive lineman, 2 starters in the secondary (safety Clayton Geathers and cornerback Patrick Robinson), and #2 wide receiver Donte Moncrief. The Vikings have been a little bit better than the Colts all year, entering this game 16th in first down rate differential, while the Colts enter in 23rd, and they are significantly better than them right now given both teams’ injury situations. However, this line is at 5 in favor of the hometown Minnesota Vikings, so there’s not enough for me to be at all confident in Minnesota. This line is right where it should be.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -5

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-6)

The Colts are coming off of a huge 41-10 win over the Jets in New York on Monday Night Football. Typically, teams carry over strong performances on Monday Night into the following week, as teams are 40-23 ATS since 1989 off of a Monday Night Football win of 21 or more points. However, this line jumped significantly in the past week, from -4 in favor of Indianapolis on the early line last week to now -6.5, following Indianapolis’ huge win. As a result, we’d be getting no line value with the Colts.

With that in mind, I actually like the Texans this week, as they are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 140-108 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 111-74 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 235-252 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.98 points per game, as opposed to 334-467 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.00 points per game. I’d need at least a touchdown to put money on the Texans, but they’re the pick here.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +6.5

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (5-6) at New York Jets (3-8)

The Colts get Andrew Luck back from injury this week, but still have major problems on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they struggle against the run and the pass and, on the offensive side of the ball, they’ve had major issues upfront on the offensive line and have struggled to run the football. They’re healthier now than they were earlier in the year, but still rank just 28th in first down rate differential. That’s actually one spot behind the Jets. The Colts might be a little better than that suggests given their injury situation has improved as the season has gone on, but these two teams are much more comparable than this line suggests.

This line has the Jets as 2 point home underdogs, so we’re getting a few points of line value with them. On top of that, the Jets are in good spot, as home underdogs tend to cover off of a loss as home underdogs, going 75-53 ATS since 2002 in that spot. The Colts are also just 20-22 outside of the division since 2013, including just 1-4 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. I would need at least 3 to put any money on the Jets, but I don’t think we’re going to get that. At 2, it’s a low confidence pick. The money line at +110 might be the best bet here.

New York Jets 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

When this line opened at 3 in favor of the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, I was going to put money on the Colts. The Colts have had great homefield advantage in recent years with Andrew Luck under center, going 23-11 ATS, including 8-1 ATS as home underdogs. I underestimated that fact last week against the Titans. The Steelers, meanwhile, are just 9-22 ATS as non-divisional road favorites in the Mike Tomlin era (since 2007). They’ve already fallen flat in both Miami and Philadelphia this year in that spot.

Fortunately, I didn’t do that, as Andrew Luck apparently started experiencing concussion symptoms after last week’s game and will miss this Thanksgiving game as a result. The line has shifted from 3 to 9.5 to compensate, which is a significant shift, but the dropoff from Luck to backup Scott Tolzien is tremendous. Luck has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season, on a team that has major issues defensively, running the ball, and blocking on the offensive line. Meanwhile, Tolzien is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the league, after spending much of the last two years as the 3rd string quarterback in Green Bay. I’m still taking the Colts for pick ‘em purposes, but I’d need at least 10 to put any money on the Colts this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +9.5

Confidence: Low

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

The Titans pulled off a huge home upset victory over the Green Bay Packers last week, which shifted this line from 4 in favor of the host Indianapolis Colts on the early line last week down to 3 this week, a significant shift considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Typically, I like to fade significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and I also tend to fade teams coming off of home upset victories, as teams are just 59-79 ATS off of a home victory as underdogs since 2012. However, the Titans have been at the top of my underrated teams list pretty much all season and I think even after last week’s statement victory they remain underrated. Most seem to be attributing Tennessee’s win to Green Bay not being good anymore, but it’s Tennessee’s rise, not Green Bay’s supposed fall that should be the story from that game.

Despite 5-5 record, the Titans enter this game 3rd in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a +13 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +61 point differential (which would be 4th best in the NFL). They have 33 offensive touchdowns on the season, as opposed to 21 allowed by their defense, a +12 differential that is best in the NFL. This line still suggests these two teams are even, but that’s far from the case.

Part of that is because the Colts are overrated. People remember them beating the Packers in Green Bay before their bye, but that was largely because of long returns on special teams. The Packers lost the first down rate battle by 9.50% against the Titans, but won by 5.20% against the Colts. Prior to that, the Colts were blown out at home 31-13 by a Chiefs team that has scored just one offensive touchdown in 2 games since. On the season, despite a few wins, the Colts rank just 29th in first down rate differential, thanks to a defense that is allowing the highest first down rate in the league. Outside of special teams, this hasn’t been a good Indianapolis team this season.

Prior to the Chiefs game, the Colts did beat the Titans 34-26 in Tennessee, but the Titans have still been a lot better on the season. Also, that loss puts the Titans in a good spot here, as divisional road underdogs are 60-32 ATS since 2002 in same season divisional revenge games against an opponent that previously beat them as home favorites. Comparable teams tend to split the season series, even if the road team pulls the upset in the first game. These teams aren’t even comparable, so the Titans should have a great chance of evening the season series. It’s also worth keeping in mind that the Titans don’t really have much of a homefield advantage, so the fact that this is a road game for them isn’t that big of a deal. Since 2010, the Titans have been outscored by 5 points per game on the road and 3 points per game at home, suggesting their homefield advantage has been worth about a point over that time period.

The Titans are also in a much better spot than the Colts because the Colts have to turn around and play Pittsburgh on Thursday Night on Thanksgiving, while the Titans go to Chicago to take on a Bears team that’s been one of the worst in the league this year. The Titans figure to be completely focused to take down an opponent that has caused them a lot of trouble in recent years, while the Colts could get caught looking forward to a tough Thursday Night game. The early line has them as 3 point home underdogs against the Steelers, while the Titans are favored by a point in Chicago. Favorites are 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football, while underdogs are 92-60 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. If the Colts aren’t focused, they’re going to have a very tough time defeating a team that has significantly outplayed them this season. This is not only my Pick of the Week, but also one of my favorite picks all year.

Tennessee Titans 27 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)

The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, entering this game with the 4th lowest first down percentage differential in the league, thanks largely to a defense that ranks 31st in first down percentage allowed. One of the oldest rosters in the league, the Colts have predictably declined this season and also have dealt with a number of injuries. This week, they’re without top safety Mike Adams, starting defensive end Kendall Langford, top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort, fellow starting offensive lineman Joe Reitz, and top pass rusher Trent Cole.

The Packers, meanwhile, rank 6th in first down percentage differential, so they’re one of the better teams in the league. They’re also getting healthier, with running back Ty Montgomery, center Corey Linsley, wide receiver Randall Cobb, cornerback Quinten Rollins, and linebacker Clay Matthews all returning to the starting lineup this week. They’re still missing key players, but they’re deep and talented enough overall to get by without them. This line is pretty big at 7.5, but I actually don’t think it’s high enough given the talent disparity between these two teams. I couldn’t put money on the Packers at 7.5, but that might change at 7 and definitely would change at 6.5.

Green Bay Packers 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)

The Colts get wide receivers Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett back from injury this week, but are still pretty banged up, missing starting defensive ends Kendall Langford and Henry Anderson, starting tight end Dwayne Allen, and top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort. Despite that, I think we’re getting pretty good value with them as field goal home underdogs. About 1 in 4 games are decided a field goal or fewer and the Chiefs are only 14th in first down percentage differential, so this line is a little bit high, especially since the Colts are 24-12 ATS at home in the Andrew Luck era/Chuck Pagano era (since 2012), including 8-0 ATS as home underdogs. Despite that, the public is all over the Chiefs and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. There’s not enough here for me to put money on the Colts, but they’re the pick here.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)

The Titans may be just 3-3, but they actually rank 2nd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -7 point differential on the season, despite being -4 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 4 plays, they have a +20 point differential and have quietly played very solid football this season. They’ve allowed just 9 touchdowns all season on 63 drives and have 19 more first downs than their opponents. That doesn’t mean the Titans are the 2nd best team in the NFL or anything, but they’re better than their record suggests. Much healthier and more talented than they were in 2015, the Titans run the ball well, have a great offensive line, and play strong defense.

The Colts, meanwhile, have one of the weakest rosters in the NFL outside of the quarterback position. They enter this game 30th in first down percentage differential, only ahead of the Browns and Jets, thanks to a defense that has allowed a league worst 143 first downs. They also enter this game incredible banged up. They’ll be without #2 and #3 wide receiver Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett, starting tight end Dwayne Allen, top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort, and top defensive lineman Henry Anderson. The Titans, meanwhile, are completely healthy. The Colts have the obvious advantage at quarterback, but the Titans have the advantage at every other position. This line is way too low at 3 because this line suggests that these two teams are even and that is not the case.

The Titans are in a bad spot though, as they have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are just 50-77 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Colts are coming off of a road overtime loss, which normally is a bad spot, but they’re lucky because they’re in their second of two road games here. Teams are 132-100 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-68 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games and 6-2 ATS in their 2nd of 2 road games off of an overtime loss. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-236 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.87 points per game, as opposed to 322-448 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. That being said, even though the Colts are in a better spot, I’m still confident enough in Tennessee at 3 to put money on them.

Tennessee Titans 27 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Houston Texans (3-2)

The early line had the Texans as 3.5 point home favorites here over the Colts, but the line has been at 3 this week. That’s only a half point, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by less than a field goal, it’s a significant half point. Right now, this line suggests these two teams are not even, which has not been true thus far this season. The Texans enter this game 22nd in first down percentage, while the Colts enter in 29th, thanks to a defense that ranks dead last in first down percentage allowed.

Something will have to give, as the Texans come in dead last in first down percentage on offense. The Texans have scored just 6 offensive touchdowns in 5 games this season, despite off-season additions of wide receiver Will Fuller and running back Lamar Miller. That’s because their offensive line has been a mess, thanks to injuries and off-season departures, while free agent acquisition quarterback Brock Osweiler has been even worse than last year’s quarterback Brian Hoyer thus far this season, at a price of 18 million annually. The defense has been strong, but is not the same without the injured JJ Watt, so I’m not confident in Houston, but, all things considered, Houston is the better team. Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the Colts have one of the worst rosters around him in the league.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)

The Colts played in London last week, losing 30-27 to the previously winless Jaguars. The Jaguars have a bye this week, but the Colts are the first team in NFL history to play a game the week after playing an overseas game. I don’t know if this was their decision or the league’s decision, but they don’t go on bye until week 10. That’s gotta hurt them this week. That’s just a ton of traveling, going from Indianapolis to London and back. There’s a reason teams normally go on bye week after going overseas.

Making matters worse, the Colts have to turn around and go to Houston next week for a huge divisional rivalry with a team currently in first place, next week on Sunday Night Football. The Bears, meanwhile, host the Jaguars next week, which is not nearly the same distraction. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

That being said, this isn’t a big play for a couple reasons. The first is how many players the Bears are still missing with injury. Middle linebacker Danny Trevathan is expected to return after missing the last few games with a thumb injury, which is a big re-addition, but the Bears are still missing outside linebackers Pernell McPhee and LaMarr Houston, top cornerback Kyle Fuller, and top defensive lineman Eddie Goldman for an extended period of time. Joining them on the sidelines this week are this year’s first round pick Leonard Floyd, which leaves them very thin at outside linebacker, and last year’s first round pick Kevin White, their #2 wide receiver. Quarterback Jay Cutler also remains out, but experienced backup Brian Hoyer has played pretty well in 2 spot starts, to the point where there are rumors he might keep the job from Cutler permanently.

The Colts, meanwhile, are much healthier than they were earlier this season, with defensive Henry Anderson and cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Patrick Robinson back from injury. Those are three of their best defensive players. The Colts still don’t have a ton of talent around the quarterback position on either side of the ball, but we’re not really getting much line value with the Bears at +4.5, even though 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. The second reason I’m not confident in the Bears is because they could be a little overconfident and overvalued off of last week’s home upset victory over divisional rival Detroit, as teams are 52-75 ATS since 2012 off of a home upset win. I can’t saw for sure they’ll be overconfident, but we did lose a lot of value with the Bears in the past week, as this line was at 6.5 on the early line last week. The Bears are the play, but it’s a low confidence pick unless the line happens to creep back up to 6.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Chicago +4.5

Confidence: Low

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