Commanders

Washington Redskins sign DE Stephen Paea

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Paea was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked defensive tackle in 2014, but he was a one-year wonder as the 2011 2nd round pick graded out below average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL from 2011-2013. That being said, this deal is an appropriate value for him, as it pays him just 21 million over 4 years, though with 15 million guaranteed. If Paea regresses in 2015 and beyond, it’s not a huge risk and if he keeps up his strong play from 2014, he’d be one of the more underpaid players in the NFL. He also fills an obvious need for the Redskins on their defensive line. My only concern with this deal (aside from the large percentage of this deal that’s guaranteed) is that Washington runs a 3-4 defense and Paea, a 6-1 300 pound one-gap penetrator, wouldn’t seem to be a natural fit for the scheme. Paea’s former team, the Bears, is switching to a 3-4 this off-season and didn’t have much interest in bringing him back.

Grade: A-

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Washington Redskins re-sign TE Niles Paul

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Niles Paul was a 5th round pick of the Redskins’ in 2011 and turning the big bodied wide receiver into a pass catching tight end was always kind of a pet project of Mike Shanahan’s. Ironically, Paul didn’t really produce until this year, when Jay Gruden came in. Paul caught 39 passes for 507 yards and a touchdown on 280 routes run, largely in the absence of oft injured tight end Jordan Reed. The 6-1 241 pounder predictably struggles as a run blocker (62nd out of 67 eligible in that aspect this season), but has a role in the league as a #2 move tight end.

This 3-year, 10 million dollar deal keeps him off the open market where he would have joined a weak tight end market. With Charles Clay getting transition tagged by the Dolphins, you could make a case that Paul was the 3rd best tight end on the open market after Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron. Given that, this deal makes sense financially, even if it is a slight overpay for a guy who doesn’t block well enough to be an every down tight end. However, tight end wasn’t really a need for the Redskins. As injury prone as Jordan Reed is, he’s still a very solid, young tight end overall when healthy and it would have made more sense for the Redskins to save this money for more help defensively, but I don’t hate the move.

Grade: B-

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Washington Redskins sign DE Ricky Jean-Francois

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

In Ricky Jean-Francois’ first trip to the open market in two off-seasons ago, he was given a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal by the Colts, a very weird move considering RJF had played just 715 snaps in 4 season with the 49ers from 2009-2012, after they drafted him in the 7th round. He did flash, grading out above average in both 2010 and 2011, but he didn’t deserve that kind of deal then and it predictably didn’t end well. The Colts cut him this off-season after two seasons. He made 23 starts in 26 games with the Colts and graded out about average in both seasons, but the Colts didn’t see him as worth his salary for 2015.

His second trip to the open market went differently, as the Redskins signed him to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed. That’s much more appropriate for him. He’ll slot in as a starter opposite Jason Hatcher at 3-4 defensive end for the Redskins and be an immediate upgrade over Jarvis Jenkins, who graded out 45th out of 47 eligible at his position in 2014. Jenkins is a free agent, while overpaid, aging reserves Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, who both struggled mightily last season, are expected to be cut.

Grade: A-

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Washington Redskins 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

You know things are bad at cornerback when you desperately miss DeAngelo Hall, who missed 13 games. Hall isn’t great, but those 3 games he played were the only 3 games the Redskins had anyone resembling an NFL starting cornerback out there. David Amerson has been a massive disappointment a 2013 2nd round pick, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 84th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible as a part-time player as a rookie and then grading out dead last at his position as a starter this season. Bashaud Breeland was a 4th round rookie and looked the part in 2014, grading out 99th out of 108 eligible. EJ Biggers, a mediocre at best veteran journeyman, was their 3rd cornerback and graded out 102nd at the position, giving them 3 of the worst 10 eligible cornerbacks in the NFL. Biggers is a free agent and should not be welcomed back, while the other two should not be guaranteed playing time. There’s also doubt about whether or not Hall will be back in 2015, going into his age 32 season, owed a non-guaranteed 4 million, coming off of a significant injury. He might be back out of sheer necessity, but, either way, they need to add at least two new cornerbacks to the mix this off-season.

Safety

As bad as things were at cornerback, things at safety might be equally bad. Brandon Meriweather and Ryan Clark were the starters last season and both are free agents this off-season. Meriweather has always been pretty mediocre and has missed 29 games over the past 4 seasons combined. Clark, meanwhile, is expected to retire this off-season, rather than play his age 36 season. That’s a good idea, considering he graded out dead last among safeties this year, as age finally caught up to the long-time solid safety. The Redskins will need either one or two new safeties this off-season as they don’t really have any internal options. Their secondary is a complete mess. With limited draft picks because of the RG3 trade, the Redskins couldn’t afford to miss on Amerson, Breeland, Phillip Thomas (2013 4th round), and Bacarri Rambo (2013 6th round) the way they did.

Offensive Tackle

The secondary is the Redskins’ biggest need, but any defensive back might be a reach at #5 (Alabama safety Landon Collins seems like the most logical option if they went that direction). If they can’t trade down, I could definitely see them taking someone like Notre Dame offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley, even though he isn’t a defensive back, as right tackle is a serious need too. The Redskins drafted Morgan Moses in the 3rd round last year, but he barely saw the field as a rookie and struggled mightily when he did, filling in for an injured Trent Williams at left tackle. The Redskins need right tackle help as Tom Compton and Tyler Polumbus both struggled mightily there this season, but 3rd rounders often don’t pan out and the Redskins are in no way married to Moses, as evidenced by the fact that he couldn’t get on the field over Compton and Polumbus. Even if they don’t go right tackle at 5, it’s still one of their bigger needs.

Defensive End

Jason Hatcher was a good pickup in the off-season, as the veteran graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked 3-4 defensive end, one of the Redskins’ few good defensive players, but they desperately need help opposite him. Jarvis Jenkins, the other starter, was basically Hatcher’s polar opposite, grading out 3rd worst at his position. He’s a free agent anyway, while veterans Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield both struggled mightily in limited action last season and are expected to be cap casualties. If Leonard Williams manages to fall to them at 5, I can’t see them passing on him.

Quarterback

Jay Gruden obviously isn’t sold on RG3 long-term, while backups Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy didn’t prove they were anything more than backups this season. McCoy, the better of the two last season, is a free agent anyway. RG3 is their best long-term solution. He was so good in college and as a rookie in 2012 that I’m not ready to give up on him just because he’s had injuries and isn’t an ideal fit for Gruden’s scheme. The Redskins shouldn’t give up on him either and should instead tailor their offense to fit his skill set better, the way Shanahan did in 2012. The Redskins will almost definitely add competition at some point this off-season though.

Middle Linebacker

Keenan Robinson and Perry Riley were Pro Football Focus’ 44th and 48th ranked middle linebackers out of 60 eligible in 2014, so they could add competition at this position. The Redskins really like Riley and he has a long-term deal, so he’s kind of locked in to a starting job, but getting someone to push Robinson, a 2012 4th round pick and a first year starter in 2014, isn’t a bad idea.

Running Back

Roy Helu is a free agent this off-season and, if he leaves, they’ll need a new pass catching running back. Jay Gruden really likes having a running back he can trust in pass protection and as a pass catcher and that’s what Helu was. As good as Alfred Morris is as a runner, he’s not that type of player and he’s strictly a two-down running back.

Key Free Agents 

OLB Brian Orakpo

Orakpo was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2013 and was franchised tagged as a result. However, Orakpo ended up missing 9 games with a torn pectoral in 2014, the 3rd time in his career that he’s torn his pectoral in his career. Now he hits free agency again having missed 24 of 48 games over the past 3 seasons with torn pectorals. He’s very talented when he’s on the field; in addition to his strong 2013, the 2009 1st round pick also ranked 7th at his position in 2011. However, injuries will put a big buyer beware stamp on him this off-season. The Redskins don’t seem like they’re going to bring him back, opting to move forward with Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy.

S Brandon Meriweather

Meriweather made two Pro-Bowls in New England, but, as they tend to be, the Patriots were right to release him before the 2011 season. In 4 years since the Patriots have let him go, he’s missed 29 games and the only season he graded out above average was his 2012 season, which lasted just 1 game. Sadly, he’s the Redskins’ best safety, so they’ll probably try to bring him back this off-season, but he’s barely starting caliber.

TE Niles Paul

Niles Paul was a 5th round pick of the Redskins’ in 2011 and turning the big bodied wide receiver into a pass catching tight end was always kind of a pet project of Mike Shanahan’s. Ironically, Paul didn’t really produce until this year, when Jay Gruden came in. Paul caught 39 passes for 507 yards and a touchdown on 280 routes run, largely in the absence of oft injured tight end Jordan Reed. The 6-1 241 pounder predictably struggles as a run blocker (62nd out of 67 eligible in that aspect this season), but has a role in the league as a #2 move tight end.

RB Roy Helu

Roy Helu only has 255 carries in 4 seasons since the Redskins drafted him in the 4th round in 2011, but he’s averaged 4.44 yards per carry and where he really provides value is as a 3rd down back. In 48 career games, Helu has 129 catches for 1152 yards and 3 touchdowns and he’s been a top-5 pass blocking running back in 2 of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league. In a league that’s becoming increasingly pass heavy, Helu will have plenty of suitors for a backup job this off-season.

QB Colt McCoy

McCoy, a 2010 3rd round pick, was on his 3rd NFL team this year in Washington. He drew a few starts, but once again showed what’s been clear for his whole career, dating back to his time at the University of Texas, that he isn’t anything more than an NFL backup. He’s completed 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.57 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in the NFL. He’ll sign with someone as a backup this off-season.

DE Jarvis Jenkins

Jenkins was yet another draft pick that didn’t work out by the Redskins over the past few years. After missing his entire rookie year with injury, the 2011 2nd round pick graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 23rd ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 34 eligible in 2012, 35th out of 45 eligible in 2013, and 45th out of 47 eligible in 2014. He’s a backup at best and shouldn’t draw much attention on the open market.

OT Tyler Polumbus

Polumbus was randomly Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked offensive tackle in 2013, but he’s generally been a very poor right tackle for the Redskins. Despite making just 7 starts, he was Pro Football Focus’ 62nd ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible in 2014. In 2012, he ranked 77th out of 80 eligible and, in 2011, no one played fewer snaps than his 216 and graded out worse. He shouldn’t be a starter next season.

S Ryan Clark

Clark was a solid safety in Pittsburgh for a number of years, grading out 22nd, 21st, 19th, 24th, 9th, and 45th among safeties in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively, but age finally caught up to him this season, as he graded out dead last at his position. He’ll turn 36 in 2015 and it sounds like he’s going to hang them up, rather than giving another NFL season a try. Even if he doesn’t retire, he might not get any offers.

CB EJ Biggers

Biggers, a 2009 7th round pick, has been in the NFL for 6 years and has only once graded out above average. Some of his bad seasons have been pretty bad as he graded out 107th out of 109 eligible cornerbacks in 2011, 80th out of 86 eligible safeties in 2013, and 102nd out of 108 eligible cornerbacks in 2014. Biggers is a fringe NFL talent and may have run out of chances.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Stephen Bowen

Bowen signed 5-year, 27.5 million dollar deal 4 years ago, but hasn’t really lived up to it. He’s graded out below average in all 4 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 32 eligible in 2011 and their 26th ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 34 eligible in 2012. He hasn’t graded out quite as low in the last 2 seasons, but that’s mostly because he’s missed 14 games over those 2 seasons combined with injuries. Going into his age 31 season, with serious injury problems, there’s almost no chance the Redskins bring him back at his scheduled 5.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary. They can save all that money on the cap immediately by letting him go.

CB Tracy Porter

Porter had a pick six in the Super Bowl during the 2009 season, but his career has gone severely downhill since then. He was Pro Football Focus’ 106th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible in 2013 with Oakland and 91st out of 109 eligible in 2011 with New Orleans, with an injury plagued season in Denver in between (316 snaps in 6 seasons). Still, the Redskins gave him a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal last off-season, but he played just 89 snaps this season, thanks to injuries and poor performance. Cutting him, to save 2.8 million in cash and cap space, should be a no brainer.

DT Barry Cofield

Cofield was signed the same off-season as Bowen and he too has been a disappointment. Signed to a 6-year, 36 million dollar deal, Cofield has graded out above average in just 1 of 4 seasons. He hasn’t been as bad as Bowen, but he’s going into his age 31 season in 2015 and missed 8 games last season with injuries, so the Redskins could easily cut him to save 5 million in cash and 4.1225 million in cap space.

DE Kedric Golston

Kedric Golston has graded out below average in every season he’s been in the league since 2006, with his worst years coming in 2008 (66th out of 86 eligible defensive tackles), 2010 (37th out of 42 eligible 3-4 defensive ends), and 2013 (40th out of 45 eligible 3-4 defensive ends). On top of that, this year he would have been the fifth worst 3-4 defensive end if he played enough snaps to qualify. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. Coming off of a year in which he played 182 snaps and going into his age 32 season, he’s pretty useless and the Redskins can save 1.1 million on the cap and in cash. There’s a good chance they let him go and his career is over.

CB DeAngelo Hall

Two off-seasons ago, DeAngelo Hall was cut from his large contract by the Redskins and brought back on a cheap one-year deal worth about a million dollars. It made sense. He was going into his age 30 season and had graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 4 of his last 5 seasons, dating back to 2008. The only season he graded out above average was 2010. In 2011, he was Pro Football Focus’ 67th ranked cornerback out of 109 eligible and in 2012 he was 64th out of 115 eligible. He struggled again in 2013, grading out 85th out of 110 eligible and, last off-season, going into his age 31 season, I thought he’d have to settle for another cheap one year deal on the open market. I guess the Redskins had different idea as they gave him a 4-year, 17 million dollar deal. Hall proceeded to struggle in limited action and then tear his Achilles. The Redskins can save 4 million in cash by cutting him this off-season. It would only free up 2.375 million on the cap immediately, but he’d be completely off their cap in 2016 and they’d avoid salaries of 4.25 million in 2016 and 2017. However, with the Redskins as thin as they are at cornerback, I expect they’ll bring him back, even as a player going into his age 32 season coming off of a torn Achilles.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Washington Redskins (4-11)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has shifted from 8 to 6 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements as they’re often overreactions. This line movement could very well be an overreaction. While the Redskins beat the Eagles last week, they could have lost and lost fairly easily if not for two Philadelphia missed field goals, both of which were makeable, and a couple 50/50 balls to DeSean Jackson that went their way. They lost the first down battle 30-21 in that one and the Eagles moved the chains at an 82.50% rate, as opposed to 77.42% for the Redskins. Teams are 65-85 ATS off of a win as 6+ point home underdogs since 1989 anyway, likely because those types of upset victories usually are fluky and precede significant line movements.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, have been significantly better on the road this season, going 7-0, as opposed to 4-4 at home. They’ve moved the chains at a 78.13% rate on the road, as opposed to 73.46% for their opponents, a differential of 4.67%. At home, they move the chains at a 76.86% rate, as opposed to 74.79% for their opponents, a differential of 2.07%. This is nothing new for them are they are 22-16 ATS on the road since 2010, as opposed to 14-26 ATS at home.

On the other hand, the Redskins have been better than their record all season. Last week was a fluky win, but they’ve had some fluky losses and also some close losses that could have gone either way. Even when you take into account that the Cowboys have been better on the road and the line movement, we’re still getting some line value with the Redskins. The Redskins move the chains at a 70.75% rate on the season, as opposed to 73.11% for their opponents, a differential of -2.36% that ranks 25th in the NFL, significantly better than their record would suggest. The Cowboys also don’t have a ton to play for here as they’re locked into the #3 seed unless both Seattle and Arizona lose so they could be caught looking forward off of such a big win last week. The line movement might have more to do with that than anything. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Redskins and fading the public, but I wouldn’t wager a cent on it.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against the spread: Washington +6

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

This is one of two games this week where the line is really off, according to rate of moving the chains differential (the other one is Chicago/Detroit). The Redskins haven’t been quite as bad as their record this season, moving the chains at a 70.28% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -1.92% that ranks 24th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t been as good as their record, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 0.36% that ranks 13th in the NFL.

Their offense has been even worse over the past few games with Mark Sanchez under center in place of an injured Nick Foles, as they’ve moved the chains at a 70.10% rate over the past 6 games, despite 5 of those 6 games coming against opponents who rank in the bottom-8 in rate of moving the chains differential (Tennessee 28th, Green Bay 30th, Carolina 25th, Dallas twice 27th). Things have been especially bad over the past 2 games, resulting in home losses to Seattle and Dallas. It’s really hard to trust Mark Sanchez as a massive road favorite, especially with the public all over Philadelphia. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.

However, unlike Chicago/Detroit, I’m not confident enough to put money on this one. There’s a lot of stuff working against the Redskins as well, including an injury to top defensive player Jason Hatcher. On top of that, the Eagles have a much easier game than the Redskins do next week as they head to New York to take on the Giants, while the Redskins have to host the Cowboys. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites (the early line is Philadelphia -3). On the other side of the coin, Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs, and 12-25 ATS before being 7+ home underdogs (the early line is Dallas –8). The Redskins should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +8.5

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (4-9)

One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically, which makes a lot of sense. The problem with this trend is it’s often very hard to know whether or not a team favored by 6 or more is actually going to finish 6-10 or worse. Here, it’s pretty clear. The Giants sit at 4-9 and would need to win their final 3 games to finish better than 6-10, which seems unlikely as they’d need to pull upsets against the Rams and Eagles in week 16 and week 17 respectively. Despite that, they are favored by a touchdown here.

This line is way too high. Even if I didn’t know about that trend, I’d think this line was off. The Giants rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.56% rate, as opposed to 72.82% for their opponents, a differential of -0.26%. Meanwhile, the Redskins rank 25th, moving the chains at a 70.40% rate, as opposed to 72.44% for their opponents, a differential of -2.04%. On top of that, the Giants haven’t really had much of a homefield advantage over the past decade or so. Since 2004, the Giants are 52-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate.

This isn’t unique to the Giants, as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-85 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of0.67 points per game and going 59-96 ATS. On the road, they are 77-80, getting outscored by an average of 2.00 points per game and going 83-72 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 25-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs. We’re getting a significant amount of line value with the Redskins.

Going off of that, the Giants won as 3.5 point underdogs in Washington earlier this season. That puts them in a bad spot this week, as divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate.

The Redskins have had a rough 2 week stretch, losing by a combined score of 73-27, including a 24-0 home loss last week. Teams generally do well off of rough stretches like that. Teams are 41-23 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more and 40-25 ATS since 1989 off of a home game in which they didn’t score any points. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I can’t say for sure that they’ll be overlooked or embarrassed, but they probably will be and they’re definitely undervalued, I talked about this earlier.

On top of what I’ve said already, this line was 3.5 a week ago so it moved 3.5 points, which is a huge overreaction. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense and it definitely does here. In spite of that, the public is all over the Giants and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run, as it makes sense here. The only thing working against the Redskins is the fact that they have another tough game coming up with a home game against the Eagles on deck. Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs. However, the Giants have a tough game in St. Louis on deck as well and there’s just too much stuff in Washington’s favor this week to ignore. They’re my Pick of the Week.

Washington Redskins 20 New York Giants 17 Upset Pick +245

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Commanders, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

This line shifted an entire field goal from last week to this week as the early line was PK and now the line is at 3 in favor of the Rams on the road. It’s easy to understand why that happened, considering the Rams’ 52-0 trouncing of the Raiders last week. I love fading large line movements whenever it makes sense though as they’re often overreactions and I think that’s the case here. As good as last week’s win was, it was just against the Raiders and the Rams only were able to win by such a margin because they won the turnover battle by 5.

Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of +4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week over the past 25 years. Even crazier, teams with a turnover margin of +5 or more have an average turnover margin of -0.4 the following week. As a result, those teams are 61-84 ATS the following week because the line usually overcompensates for previous week’s game, as is the case here. The public, meanwhile, is still all over the Rams and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as it does here. This is a huge trap game for the public because they don’t understand the flukiness and inconsistency of turnover margins.

Even before the large line movement, I thought we were getting line value with the Redskins. While the Redskins’ record is a couple games worse, they actually rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential. They rank 19th, moving them at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 72.24% for their opponents, a differential of -0.81%. The Rams, meanwhile, rank 25th, moving them at a 70.11% rate, as opposed to 72.40% for their opponents, differential -2.29%. On the season, the Redskins are +22 in first down margin, while the Rams are -22. The Redskins aren’t definitely better than the Rams, but the Rams don’t have any business being favored by 3 here on the road.

The Redskins are also in the better spot, with a trip to New York to play the Giants on deck. Teams are usually 81-61 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. The Rams, meanwhile, have to take on the Cardinals in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, which opens up an even more powerful trend in the Redskins favor. Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night Football. We’re getting points at home with the better team at home in the better spot and we get to fade a huge line movement and a heavy public lean. I like the Redskins a good amount this week.

Washington Redskins 24 St. Louis Rams 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

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Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Colts, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

The Redskins stand at 3-8, but they aren’t as bad as their record. Their -56 point differential isn’t as bad as their record. They have just 2 losses by more than 11 points. They’ve also been killed by the turnover battle (-9) and the return touchdown battle (-4), two things that tend to even out in the long run. On the season, they move the chains at a 71.47% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 0.04% that ranks 18th in the NFL. The Colts, meanwhile, move the chains at a 77.04% rate, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of 4.34% that ranks 6th. This line is way too high at 10 points.

The Redskins have been better on the road than at home, as they don’t have a single road loss by more than 11 and the only two road games they’ve lost by more than 4 points involved the other team returning a touchdown. They only lost by 4 points last week in San Francisco as 10 point underdogs and they could easily keep it close here in Indianapolis. The Redskins have benched Robert Griffin for Colt McCoy this week. McCoy isn’t as talented as Griffin, but he’s a better fit for this offense and he’s played well in limited action this season, completing 85.7% of his passes for an average of 10.17 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception on 42 attempts. I’m still confident in the Redskins even with McCoy under center.

Unlike last week, the Redskins are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is twofold. For one, the Colts go to Cleveland next week. While Cleveland has a solid record, the Colts will still be road favorites there next week and teams are 113-75 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2002. Two, the Colts have a very solid homefield advantage. They are 15-7 ATS at home since 2012, when Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came in. However, I still like the Redskins’ chances of playing another close road game.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

The San Francisco 49ers are 9 point favorites here at home over the Washington Redskins, but I think that line is much too high. For one thing, San Francisco has actually played significantly worse than their record this season, as they rank 19th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 72.13% rate, as opposed to 72.35% for their opponents, a differential of -0.22%. Meanwhile, the Redskins have played significantly better than their record this season, moving the chains at a 72.78% rate, as opposed to 72.11% for their opponents, a differential of -0.68% that ranks 15th in the NFL.

I’m not saying that the 49ers are the 19th best team in the NFL or Washington is 15th, or even that Washington is better than San Francisco at all, but the advanced metrics suggest this line is way too high. Despite that, the public is all over San Francisco and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense (and it does here) because the odds makers always make money in the long run. This line is way too high normally, but the 49ers have a very important game with the Seahawks in 4 days after this season, which could easily provide a significant distraction for them. Since 2008, favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football. This game will be a lot closer than 9.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +9

Confidence: Medium

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