Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

The Cowboys are 2-7, but are favored here by 1.5 points in Miami. That’s because, of their 7 losses, 5 of them have come by less than a touchdown. As a result, they rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains, not bad as their record. The Dolphins rank 24th, but the Cowboys are getting Tony Romo back from injury for the first time since week 2 (when they were 2-0). The Cowboys are going to be missing top linebacker Sean Lee with injury, but the Dolphins are without defensive end Cameron Wake, offensive tackle JuWuan James, and linebacker Jelani Jenkins.

The Cowboys are in a tough spot though, playing again in 4 days, against the Panthers in Dallas, on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. On top of that, they could easily be home underdogs next week and road favorites are 19-36 ATS before being home underdogs since 2012. The early line has that game as a pick ‘em, but the line could easily become 1 or 2 in favor of Carolina. Either way, they have a tough game coming up in a few days and are in a bad spot as a result of that.

It does help the Cowboys that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 43-29 ATS since 2008 as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 215-215 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.42 points per game, as opposed to 300-420 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.92 points per game. I’m going to take them because they should win and we’re getting field goal protection and then some with them, but I’m not confident.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -1.5

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Cowboys, NFL Draft, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Cowboys have lost 6 straight games since losing Tony Romo to a broken collarbone week 2. Romo is expected back next week, when he’s first eligible to come off of injured reserve, but it could be too late. It will be too late if they lose here in Tampa Bay. Fortunately, Tampa Bay is arguably the easiest opponent they’ll face this season. They rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential and have an awful homefield advantage, going 16-35 ATS (1-3 ATS this season) at home since 2009. Given that, the Cowboys should probably be favored by a little bit more than the point they’re favored by here.

It might sound weird to say that a team that has lost 6 straight games should be favored on the road, but the Buccaneers have just been so bad at home this season (getting outscored 142-93). Besides, the Cowboys are better than their record, ranking 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. Of their 6 losses, 4 have come by less than a touchdown. They’ll miss Sean Lee with injury this week, but getting Dez Bryant back to 100%, like he appears to be after last week’s performance, should help cancel that out a little bit. Matt Cassel isn’t the best quarterback in the world, but the Cowboys have a strong offensive supporting cast around him. The Buccaneers are missing Vincent Jackson and, even if this turns into a shootout, I think the Cowboys can still keep up and win against Tampa Bay’s awful defense.

It’s tough to love the Cowboys as long as the line is between a field goal either way though, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. On top of that, the line has been alternating. If the Buccaneers are underdogs, it puts them in a good spot, as home underdogs are 75-52 ATS off of a loss as home underdogs. However, if the Cowboys are underdogs, they’re in a good spot because the Cowboys are 20-11 ATS as road underdogs since 2009. Basically, I see this as a field goal game. I expect the Cowboys to win, but not enough to put money on them without field goal protection.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -1

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5)

The Eagles are 3 point favorites here in Dallas coming off the bye. Significant road favorites off of a bye tend to do pretty well, as 3+ point road favorites off of the bye are 41-13 ATS since 2002, including 21-5 ATS in a divisional matchup, like this one. However, the Eagles aren’t deserving of being favored by a field goal here. They’re the better team, ranking 11th, as opposed to 20th for the Cowboys, but the difference isn’t enough, considering this line suggests that the Eagles are 6 points better than the Cowboys.

The Eagles aren’t healthy coming out of the bye, missing talented left tackle Jason Peters with a back injury. It’s not all bad on the injury front for the Eagles, as middle linebacker Kiko Alonso is expected to return this week from an extended absence with a knee problem, meaning the Eagles are healthy with the exception of Peters, but Peters will definitely be missed. Matt Tobin will be a significant downgrade.The Cowboys, meanwhile, are only missing Tony Romo.

Obviously, that’s a huge injury still and new quarterback Matt Cassel is a significant downgrade, but the Cowboys are healthy around the quarterback now, which they haven’t been really all season. The offensive line is very good. Their receiving corps is back to full strength, after getting wide receiver Dez Bryant back from injury last week. And their defense has played a lot better in recent weeks since getting defensive end Greg Hardy and middle linebacker Rolando McClain back from suspension. Given that, the Eagles really shouldn’t be field goal favorites here, without Peters, but the public is still all over them. I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, because they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

The Cowboys are also in a pair of good spots. For one, they have a relatively easy game in Tampa Bay next week, a game in which they expected to be 1 point road favorites, per the early line. Home underdogs are 72-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. Sure, that line is only one and they could end up being underdogs depending on the outcome of this game, but teams are also 75-51 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs since 2002. The Cowboys lost last week against the Seahawks as home underdogs. I’m not confident at all, but I’m going with the Cowboys.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-4)

The Dallas Cowboys lost their 2nd most important offensive player (wide receiver Dez Bryant) to a serious injury in the first week of the season and their most important offensive player (quarterback Tony Romo) to a serious injury in the second week of the season. The Cowboys managed to win both of those games, but have lost all 4 since. However, as weird as this may sound, their offense hasn’t been that much worse, as they’ve moved the chains at a 73.48% rate in the past 4 weeks, as opposed to 75.36% in the first 2 weeks. Credit their offensive line and coaching staff for the Cowboys’ continued offensive success, despite all of their skill position losses (Bryant, Romo, and free agent departure DeMarco Murray).

So why have the Cowboys had significantly less success on the scoreboard in their last 4 games, as compared to their first 2? Well, their defense was fluky good in the first 2 weeks of the season and in weeks 3 and 4 started to look much more like they were supposed to, after ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains last year, getting linebacker Sean Lee back from injury this off-season, but losing defensive tackle Henry Melton (free agent), cornerback Sterling Moore (free agent), outside linebacker Justin Durant (free agent), cornerback Orlando Scandrick (torn ACL), and linebacker Rolando McClain (suspension).

They’ve been better over the past 2 weeks though, as McClain and free agent acquisition Greg Hardy have come back off of suspensions. Both are playing well and, combined with Sean Lee and defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford, they’ve got this front 7 playing pretty well right now. They should have won last week in New York against the Giants, dominating in rate of moving the chains (with 27 first downs to 13 for the Giants) and only losing by 7 because of a -4 turnover margin.

Teams that have a -4 turnover margin, on average, only win that game 5.0% of the time. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent from one week to the next though, as teams that have a -4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. Given that, it’s pretty impressive that the Cowboys were able to almost win despite getting crushed in turnovers and it bodes well for their chances this week. Teams are 61-44 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss in which they had a -4 or worse turnover margin, since 1989.

Last week’s game against the Giants was one of 3 games in which they’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle (along with the first 2), so it makes sense that they rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re not quite that good, but their offense is respectable and gets Dez Bryant back this week, while their defense is more talented now than it was during last season or during the start of this season. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, only one spot ahead of Dallas.

However, the Seahawks have faced a tougher schedule (St. Louis, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Carolina, and San Francisco vs. NY Giants, Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, NY Giants). They are the better team, are essentially completely healthy right now, and are also in a much better spot, for a couple of reasons. For one, the Seahawks are going into their bye week after this one.  Good teams tend to take care of business going into a bye and win big as big favorites. Home favorites of 6+ going into the bye are 59-20 ATS since 2002. The Seahawks, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 39-25 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same.

On top of that, they’re road favorites off of a road win, after winning big in San Francisco last week. Teams are 42-30 ATS since 2008 in that spot, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games, as the Seahawks are. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. Despite all that, I can’t take the Seahawks this week, especially considering all the public action pouring in on them. This line is just too high at 6, either way. The Cowboys are better than this line suggests, even in a bad spot. I’m not confident in them either though.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Dallas Cowboys 13

Pick against the spread: Dallas +6

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at New York Giants (3-3)

The Giants have never really had a very good homefield advantage, at least not since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era.  They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-44 (59-39 ATS) on the road over that time period, getting outscored by an average of 0.16 points per game. On the other side, the Cowboys are 22-22 at home (14-30 ATS) since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.32 points per game, as opposed to 23-20 on the road (25-17 ATS), getting outscored by an average of 0.26 points per game. The road team generally tends to do well in NFC East matchups overall anyway, for what that’s worth. The road team in NFC East divisional matchups is 37-54 ATS since 2008. On top of that, the Cowboys are 12-3 ATS as 3.5+ point road underdogs since 2010 (4-0 ATS in the division).

However, this line has moved from 5.5 in favor of the Giants last week in the early line to 3.5 now. That cost us a lot of line value. This line is probably still a little bit too high, considering how well the Cowboys typically travel, how little homefield advantage the Giants have, and the fact that the Cowboys rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 19th. We’re just not really getting enough value with the Cowboys to be too confident in them, especially considering the Cowboys are a publicly backed underdog (which I like to avoid), and considering the Cowboys host the Seahawks next week. The Cowboys are expected to be 5.5 point underdogs in that one. Teams are 71-116 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+, 40-78 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 39-84 ATS over that same time period before being 6+ point home underdogs. I’m still taking the Cowboys, but I’m not confident at all.

New York Giants 23 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

How good has the Patriots’ offense been this season? Well, only two teams have more offensive touchdowns than they do (Cincinnati and Atlanta) and that’s despite the fact that the Patriots are coming off of a bye and 30 teams have played more games than them. They’re moving the chains at a ridiculous 86.44% rate. No other team is moving the chains at a rate better than 79.56%. On top of that, the 119 points they’ve scored through 3 games is the most they’ve ever scored in the first 3 games of the season in franchise history, as good as their offense has been for the past decade plus.

Tom Brady has seemingly rolled back the clock once again, in his age 38 season, and having a healthy Rob Gronkowski, something they didn’t have to start last season, has been a huge deal. After struggling in the first 4 games of the season in 2014, Gronk had an 11 game stretch in which he caught 69 passes for 977 yards and 9 touchdowns, before sitting out a meaningless week 17 game for precautionary reasons. The Patriots moved the chains at an 80.87% rate in those 11 games (and went 10-1), as opposed to 65.47% in their other 5 games (2-3). This year, he has 16 catches for 308 yards and 4 touchdowns in 3 games (on pace for 85 catches for 1643 yards and 21 touchdowns) and is Pro Football Focus’ 1st ranked tight end by a wide margin even though most of the league has played one more game than him.

He’s caught 310 passes for 4539 yards and 53 touchdowns in his last 60 games and he averages 2.43 yards per route run in his 5 year career. In games where Gronk plays over the past 4 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.4% of his passes for an average of 7.86 YPA, 123 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions, including playoffs. When Gronk doesn’t play, over that stretch of time, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant drop off in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. He’s the biggest reason why the Patriots are even better offensively this season than last season, even with Brady aging and guys like wide receiver Brandon LaFell, center Bryan Stork, and left guard Ryan Wendell missing the first 3 games of the season.

LaFell and Stork remain out for this one (and for the foreseeable future), but Wendell will return after missing the start of the season with a mysterious illness. Wendell is versatile enough to play all 3 interior line spots, so it’s unclear where he’ll play, but he should be an upgrade, though they definitely haven’t had bad interior line play this season. The Patriots are coming out of the bye in very good shape and have a very good chance to move the ball with ease and drop a lot of points once again this week. They haven’t had the toughest schedule of defenses to start their season, as Jacksonville and Pittsburgh have among the worst defenses in the league, but they did also play very well offensively on the road against a good Buffalo defense. Besides, the Cowboys don’t have a very good defense either, ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

The Cowboys should be better defensively this week because they get both defensive end Greg Hardy and middle linebacker Rolando McClain back from suspension, but they still have a lot of problems defensively and should have a lot of trouble stopping the Patriots’ offense. The Cowboys also have issues offensively, as an offense that was one of the best, but also one of the healthiest, in the league last season, is without quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Dez Bryant with injury, after losing running back DeMarco Murray in free agency. In the past 2 weeks without Romo and Bryant, they’ve moved the chains pretty well, as backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has surprised a lot of people and their offensive line has continued playing well, but they were also facing Atlanta and New Orleans, who have among the worst defenses in the league. The Patriots have problems defensively as well, especially in the secondary, but they are the toughest defense the Cowboys have faced since Weeden became the starter.

On top of that, as I mentioned earlier, the Patriots are coming off of a bye and big road favorites tend to do very well off of a bye, as 3+ point favorites are 40-13 ATS off of a bye since 2002. As you can imagine, the Patriots have been in this spot quite a few times over that time period and are 4-1 ATS. The Patriots are also in another good spot because they’re projected to be big road favorites again next week in Indianapolis. The early line has them favored by 5 points. Teams are 101-74 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 64-44 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites.

That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to play an easy opponent, so you don’t have any real upcoming distractions. Two, you’re a really good football team. In this scenario, it’s more the latter than the former. The Cowboys don’t have any upcoming distractions either, heading into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. This line is really high at 9.5, but I have no problem laying the points because I think this is going to be a blowout. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because there’s so much public money on New England.

New England Patriots 37 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: New England -9.5

Confidence: High

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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-3)

At one point, the Saints had won 20 straight home games, covering in all but 2 of them, but now they’ve lost 6 straight home games, all as favorites. They are favored here again at home, though only by 3.5 points, against a Dallas team that is so banged up right now and just lost pretty easily at home to an average at best Atlanta team. Not only are they missing Tony Romo and Dez Bryant from an offense that had next to no injuries last season, but they’re also missing rookie defensive end Randy Gregory and suspended free agent acquisition Greg Hardy, though they will get defensive end Jeremy Mincey back from a concussion this week after he missed last week’s game against Atlanta. This line isn’t giving the Saints nearly the same respect at home as they are used to, which increases their chances of covering.

The Saints are also getting a few key players back from injury, as Drew Brees, who missed his first game with injury in over a decade last week, returns, as do key defensive backs Jairus Byrd and Keenan Lewis, who will be making their season debuts. Guard Jahri Evans will miss his 2nd straight game with a knee injury and they made a weird move by sending starting defensive tackle Akiem Hicks to the Patriots for a backup tight end and, after a rough off-season, this team is still a far cry from even last year’s team, but I think they have a good chance of beating the Cowboys by at least 4 and covering here. The Cowboys are 18-8 ATS as road underdogs since 2010, but it’s unclear how the loss of the starting quarterback will affect that.

It definitely helps the Saints that the Cowboys are in a terrible spot, hosting New England next week, against whom they will are expected to be 8.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 35-74 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 19-49 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 12-28 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s probably both in this situation.

The Saints have to go to Philadelphia next week, which isn’t easy, but they’re still in a much better situation. On top of that, Drew Brees is 24-8 ATS since 2008 off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is coaching, including 16-5 ATS at home off a loss. He’s only 4-6 ATS off of a loss over the past 2 seasons, including 2-4 ATS at home off of a loss, so that trend has definitely lost some luster too, like their homefield advantage, but the Saints should be the right side here. I wouldn’t put money on it though.

New Orleans Saints 27 Dallas Cowboys 21

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-0)

This is the toughest game of the week for me. The Cowboys usually struggle at home, going 20-31 ATS at home since 2009. However, they are home underdogs here and, while that’s been a rarity, they are 6-3 ATS as home underdogs. The Cowboys are only home underdogs because their offense that was essentially injury free in 2014 is now missing both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant for an extended period of time. On top of that, they are also missing their top cornerback Orlando Scandrick and their top three defensive ends (Greg Hardy, Randy Gregory, and Jeremy Mincey) on a defense that wasn’t that good to begin with, though having Sean Lee back from injury after he missed all of last season has been huge.

The Falcons could overlook the Cowboys because of how banged up they are. Remember, while the Falcons are 2-0, they are a few plays away from being 0-2. They rank just 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the also 2-0 Cowboys rank 6th. It’s only two weeks, but that’s certainly consistent with what happened last season, when the Cowboys ranked 8th and the Falcons ranked 23rd. Of course, the Cowboys are way more banged up now than they were then so I’m not confident at all, but I am taking them.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Dallas Cowboys 23

Pick against the spread: Dallas +1.5

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)

I had the Eagles as being a little bit better than the Cowboys coming into the season, winning 10 games and the NFC East, while the Cowboys win 9 and come up just short. The Cowboys barely beat the Giants week 1, needing a miracle last second drive to win by 1, and also lost starting left guard Ronald Leary, starting defensive end Randy Gregory, and top receiver Dez Bryant with injuries. This line was 4 last week and now has shifted to 5.5, all of which seems reasonable at first glance.

However, I actually really like the Cowboys this week for a few reasons. For one, when I predicted the Cowboys at 9 wins, it was because I expected them to have more injuries on offense, after having the 2nd fewest offensive adjusted games lost in the league last season. Losing Dez hurts, but this is still a talented offense. Meanwhile, Randy Gregory is just a 2nd round rookie anyway and Leary can be replaced in the lineup by La’El Collins, an undrafted rookie, but one who would have been a 1st round pick if not for the fact that he was wanted for questioning in the case of his pregnant ex-girlfriend’s death around the time of the draft. Collins was able to clear his name a few days after the draft and the Cowboys got a steal when he signed with them as an undrafted free agent.

The Cowboys should not be 5.5 point underdogs here in Philadelphia against the Eagles, who lost week 1 to an Atlanta team that isn’t very good. I’d say the Cowboys had a more impressive week 1 performance because they were able to win in spite of a -3 turnover margin. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 3 win just 10.7% of the time over the past 25 or so years. On top of that, turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, over the past 25 or so years, teams that post a -3 turnover margin in a game, on average, have a -0.1 turnover margin the following week. If the Cowboys can win despite some fluky turnovers, I think it speaks better to their long-term outlook than losing in Atlanta does.

The Cowboys are also arguably a better team on the road than at home, so I’m not concerned that they almost just lost at home to the inferior New York Giants. Since 2010, the Cowboys are 22-20 at home (14-28 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 2.21 points per game, as opposed to 22-19 on the road (24-16 ATS), getting outscored by an average of 0.37 points per game. The road team generally tends to do well in NFC East matchups overall anyway, for what that’s worth. The road team in NFC East divisional matchups is 53-34 ATS since 2008.

The reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because the Eagles have an easy game on deck, going to New York to face the Jets, where they are projected to be 3.5 point favorites. Teams are 96-70 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of a field goal or more. The Cowboys do host the Falcons up next, but, when both teams are 100% focused with no upcoming distractions, it tends to benefit the favorite more than the underdog. I’d still put money on Dallas though.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23

Pick against the spread: Dallas +5.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

The Cowboys won the NFC East with 12 wins last year, but I think they’ll have a tougher time in 2015. Defensively, they were pretty weak in 2014, ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They get Sean Lee back from injury, but lose Henry Melton, Justin Durant, and Sterling Moore, key part-time contributors, to free agency and also lose Orlando Scandrick to a torn ACL and Rolando McClain to a 4-game suspension. They signed Greg Hardy, but he too is facing a 4-game suspension and, without him or McClain, the Cowboys’ defense figures to really struggle to start the season.

They were much better offensively, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains, but they also had no injuries, ranking 2nd in adjusted games lost and they lost DeMarco Murray to free agency this off-season, leaving them with arguably the worst running backs in the NFL. They haven’t suffered any injuries yet, but most teams are relatively healthy right now so it won’t make as much of a difference that the Cowboys are completely healthy offensively as it would later in the season, like it did last year.

The Giants are one of the few teams in the league that is already dealing with serious injury problems. Victor Cruz, Jason Pierre-Paul, William Beatty, and Jon Beason are already out for this game and likely a few other games, but they also had the most injuries in the league last year en route to ranking 18th in rate of moving the chains differential. They should be better than that this year even if they continue to have some injury problems thanks to the return of guys like Prince Amukamara, Robert Ayers, Odell Beckham, Rashad Jennings and Geoff Schwartz, all of whom missed serious time with injury last season, to health. They have easily the best defense between these two teams and should be able to put enough points on Dallas’ offense to keep this one closer than the line.

That line is way too high at 6 (6.5 in some places) and not just for talent reasons. The Cowboys haven’t been a good home team in recent years, going 20-30 ATS at home since 2009, including 14-27 ATS as home favorites and 5-10 ATS as divisional home favorites. The Giants, meanwhile, are 57-38 ATS on the road since 2004 (the start Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), including 37-24 ATS as road underdogs and 16-9 ATS as divisional road underdogs. The Giants also tend to be better earlier in the season, going 47-34 in the first 8 weeks of the season, including 25-16 ATS on the road in the first 8 weeks of the season. This is my 2nd favorite play of the week.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 30

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: High

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