Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (9-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)

The Eagles won in Dallas a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t mean these two teams aren’t even. The Eagles rank 11th, moving the chains at 71.46% rate, as opposed to 70.14% for their opponents, a differential of 1.32%. The Cowboys, very similarly, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 76.11% rate, as opposed to 74.94% for their opponents, a differential of 1.17%. The Eagles’ offense has been especially bad with Mark Sanchez under center, as they’ve moved the chains at a 69.94% rate over the past 5 weeks despite playing 4 of the 7 worst defenses in the league in terms of rate of moving the chains differential (Green Bay, Carolina, Tennessee, Dallas). The reason the Cowboys lost on Thanksgiving is because they generally struggle at home, going 7-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010. The Eagles, meanwhile, are 14-27 ATS at home over that same time period.

This isn’t unique to the Cowboys and Eagles, as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-85 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of0.67 points per game and going 59-96 ATS. On the road, they are 77-80, getting outscored by an average of 2.00 points per game and going 83-72 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 25-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs.

The Eagles’ previous win in Dallas actually puts them in a bad spot this week, as divisional home favorites are 25-49 ATS since 2002 against a divisional opponent that they previously beat as road underdogs during that same regular season. It’s a weird trend and it’s a little complicated, but it makes sense when you think about it. In divisional matchups where the homefield advantage decides who is the favorite, generally those two teams are essentially even. Divisional opponents that are essentially even generally split the season series. That seems to happen even if the road team pulls the upset in the first matchup, as the road underdog wins about half the time (39-38) in the rematch and covers at that aforementioned 2/3rds rate.

I like the Cowboys’ chances of getting revenge here and even if they don’t do so by winning, this line is at 3.5 so there’s some wiggle room. Getting that extra half point is very important considering these two teams are essentially even and it’s the direct result of the Eagles’ win in Dallas two weeks ago, which we established is very explainable. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Eagles don’t have any distractions on the horizon with a trip to Washington on deck. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, and 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites (the early line is Philadelphia -8.5). I’m still taking the Cowboys and the 3 and a half.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7)

This line is off. The Bears rank 18th, moving the chains at a 74.74% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.27% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of 0.96%. Not only should the Cowboys not be favored by more than a field goal here (3.5), I’m not convinced they should even be favored. On top of the line value we’re getting with the Bears, the Cowboys are also 12-27 ATS in week 13 or later as long as Tony Romo is the starter. This is the time of year to fade Romo and I think we’re getting more than enough value to do it. I’m fairly confident in the Bears as long as this line is more than a field goal.

Chicago Bears 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +165

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.05 points per game and going 59-93 ATS. On the road, they are 74-78, getting outscored by an average of 2.34 points per game and going 80-70 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 24-14 ATS over that time period as divisional road underdogs.

I’m not that confident in Philadelphia though because they are the inferior team and we’re not really getting any line value with them. The Cowboys rank 12th, moving the chains at a 76.22% rate, as opposed to 73.83% for their opponents, a differential of 2.39%. The Eagles are one spot behind them at 13th, moving the chains at a 71.83% rate, as opposed to 70.05% for their opponents, a differential of 1.78%. However, their offense hasn’t been good with Mark Sanchez under center, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate over the past 3 games. That’s about a percent and a half worse, despite the fact that they were facing Carolina (30th in rate of moving the chains allowed), Green Bay (29th), and Tennessee (31st). That’s about as easy of a schedule as you can get for an offense.

That’s also despite having Chip Kelly at head coach and despite the offensive line finally getting healthy. Even though Nick Foles wasn’t playing well himself, Sanchez has proven to be an inferior quarterback to Foles, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. They’ve put up some big point totals recently, scoring 45 against Carolina and 43 against Tennessee, but both were powered by 3 return touchdowns, were isn’t a sustainable way to put up points. The Eagles have a solid defense, but the Cowboys are the toughest defense that Sanchez has faced (that’s not saying much) and they could give him trouble. I’m still taking the Eagles here on the road, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (7-3) at New York Giants (3-7)

One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites of 3 or more are incredibly dominant off of a bye, going 40-12 ATS since 2002, including 21-4 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense. The Cowboys are a significantly better team than the Giants and should be very well prepared for this game with 2 weeks off and take care of business. On the season, they move the chains at a 76.01% rate, as opposed to 72.54% for their opponents, a differential of 3.48% that ranks 10th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 22nd, moving the chains at a 71.87% rate, as opposed to 74.45% for their opponents, a differential of -2.59%.

The Giants also don’t have quite the same homefield advantage as most teams do, at least they haven’t in recent history. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, the Giants are 51-41 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 50-39 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.71 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average. At home, the NFC East is 72-81 since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.96 points per game and going 57-93 ATS. On the road, they are 73-77, getting outscored by an average of 2.37 points per game and going 79-69 ATS. As you can imagine, road teams in NFC East divisional games tend to do well, going 31-22 ATS over that time period. The Cowboys are already a perfect 4-0 on the road this season and looking to push it to 5-0 this week.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, Dallas has to play Philadelphia in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. Two, on the other hand, the Giants have an easy game in Jacksonville where they are currently projected to be 3.5 point favorites. Teams are 85-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and home underdogs are 68-42 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. They don’t have the same upcoming distraction that the Cowboys have. However, I still like Dallas as big road favorites off of a bye in a place that hasn’t had a ton of homefield advantage recently.

Dallas Cowboys 34 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London

Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London over the Jaguars. Despite missing Romo last week in a pathetic showing against the Cardinals, the Cowboys still rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.71% rate, as opposed to 73.31% for their opponents, a differential of 3.41%.

On the opposite side, the Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 73.26% for their opponents, a differential of -6.60%. They have covered just 9 of their last 26 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 26 games, they’ve lost 17 of them by double digits. On top of that, Dallas is also in the better spot here I think as they are favorites and actually in playoff contention. It’s a small sample size, but favorites are 6-4 ATS in London games, including 6-2 ATS in their last 8. It makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.

There are three reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Dallas. One, it’s tough to judge how Romo will be coming off this kind of injury and if his supporting cast will give 100% against a bad team in another country with Romo now back. Two, I don’t really have any strong trends that suggest the Cowboys are the right side. Three, the Jaguars have been playing a lot better of late. Blake Bortles has proven to be an upgrade over Chad Henne at quarterback (which isn’t hard) and head coach Gus Bradley, the ex-Seahawks defensive coordinator, has this defense playing a lot better recently.

Over the past 6 games, since benching Henne, they are moving the chains at a 69.72% rate, as opposed to 68.64% for their opponents, a differential of 1.09%. That’s much better than their first 3 games, when they moved the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of -20.08%. The Cowboys should still beat them by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)

Tony Romo is not expected to play in this game, but I like their chances of covering this spread even without him so I’m going to lock this pick in now while the line is still where it is. If Romo ends up playing, it’ll be an added bonus. The public is all over the Cardinals as 3 point underdogs here, which makes sense as the Cardinals have one loss and the Cowboys will be rolling with Brandon Weeden under center. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog, as the public always loses money in the long run and whenever they think a different team should be favored than the odds makers it generally doesn’t end well. As long as it makes sense, I almost always go against a public underdog.

It does make sense here. I like betting on good teams in their first game missing their starting quarterback, as they tend to give 110% to make up for the loss of their quarterback, while the other team relaxing a little. The Cowboys, despite what happened last week, are a good team, moving the chains at a 77.65% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of 5.51%. Their offense won’t be as good without Romo obviously, but they have a strong enough of an offensive supporting cast to make up for it and their defense has been surprisingly passable this season thanks to the coaching of new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli.

The Cardinals, conversely, are not nearly as good as their record. They move the chains at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -0.84% that ranks 19th in the NFL. They’ve been way too reliant on a +9 turnover margin this season, powered by a 61.54% rate of recovering fumbles (5th in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +2 return touchdown margin.

They’re probably the most overrated team in football, especially after beating overrated Philadelphia last week, a game in which they couldn’t move the ball much at all with the exception of two big plays. The Cowboys are also in a good spot as they only have a game against Jacksonville on deck. They are expected to be 10.5 point favorites in London next Sunday against Jacksonville and teams are 69-55 ATS since 2010 before being double digit favorites. I’m not confident, but the Cowboys should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1)

Last week I picked against the Cowboys when they planned the Giants here at home in Dallas. That didn’t work out as the Cowboys won 31-21 as 6.5 point favorites, but it could have easily been a different result (against the spread). The Giants led 14-7 earlier and the game would have been a lot closer if not for two Larry Donnell fumbles after the catch, two very fluky things. Even after last week, the Cowboys still have a lot of issues historically when favored, especially heavily favored, at home.

The Cowboys are 13-23 ATS as home favorites since 2009, including 6-12 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 or more. This isn’t just a Dallas thing. NFC East teams are just 20-34 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2008. This is probably too big of a line for the Cowboys to cover. They have a way of disappointing when they’re supposed to win big and what better situation for them to do it in than on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS on Monday Night Football since 2006.

We also might be getting a significant amount of line value with the Redskins. The Cowboys have played well this season, moving the chains at a 78.21% rate, as opposed to 72.11% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10% that ranks 4th in the NFL. The Redskins, meanwhile, move the chains at a 72.57% rate, as opposed to 71.15% for their opponents, a differential of 1.42% that ranks 12th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 7.5 instead of 10. Sure, much of the reason why the Redskins rank 12th is because of how well they played against the Jaguars. If you take that game out of the mix, they move the chains at a 69.78% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of -4.16% that would rank 26th in the NFL. However, I still like their chances of keeping this within double digits.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

The Giants got blown out in Philadelphia last week, but that actually bodes well for their chances of covering the spread this week, as the Giants are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 106-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 90-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 176-181 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.06 points per game, as opposed to 251-357 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.23 points per game.

In spite of their loss in Philadelphia last week, the Giants are historically very good on the road.  Since the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning in 2004, they are 55-35 ATS on the road, including 36-22 ATS as road underdogs, 16-8 ATS as divisional road underdogs, and 11-4 ATS as divisional road underdogs of 3.5 or more. The opposite is true of Dallas. The Cowboys are 12-23 ATS as home favorites since 2009, including 5-12 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 or more. This isn’t just a Dallas/NY Giants thing. NFC East teams are just 19-34 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2008.

Picking the Giants also gives us an opportunity to fade a significant line movement, as this line was 3.5 a week ago and now it’s 6.5. I understand the things that happened last week might seem worthy of a 3 point line movement, the Victor Cruz injury, the Giants’ blowout loss, the Cowboys’ win in Seattle, but I don’t think this line should have moved this much based on one week’s results. The Cowboys could easily be overconfident as favorites off of that win last week (they’re just 3-15 ATS as favorites off a win since 2010 anyway), while the Giants will be embarrassed and want to redeem themselves. I like their chances of bouncing back.

Dallas Cowboys 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5

Confidence: High

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Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

The Seahawks are basically an auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 43-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 42-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.73 points per game. This is opposed to a 23-40 record away from home (28-34-1 ATS) and getting outscored by 3.90 points per game on the road.

This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 19-1 straight up and 15-5 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.55 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 8.72 points per game at home. The normal 3 points for homefield advantage doesn’t apply for them and they should get something like 6 points for homefield advantage, at least. The odds makers have been clearly boosting the spread for their homefield advantage recently, but they’ve still covered 6 of their last 10 home games. The odds makers clearly boosted the spread for the Seahawks’ special homefield advantage when the Seahawks played Green Bay and Denver, against whom they were 7.5 point and 5 point favorites respectively. They still covered both spreads.

Given that, it seems a little ridiculous that they are only 8 point favorites here for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have exceeded expectations this season, but they’re not as good as their record. They’ve had close calls with Houston and St. Louis and haven’t really beaten anyone who is having much success this season. The Seahawks in Seattle will be a different story. If the Broncos couldn’t cover the spread in Seattle and the Packers got blown out in Seattle, the Cowboys should lose this one by double digits.

The Seahawks are also in a good spot with just a road game against the Rams on deck. Teams are 54-28 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. On top of that, teams are 75-49 ATS since 2002 before being 3+ road favorites. The Cowboys are technically in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 120-88 ATS in since 2002, but their game against the Giants next week is much more important to them than the Seahawks’ game against the Rams so the Seahawks are in the better spot. I’m going to take them in that better spot in a location where they almost always cover. The Seahawks are also my survivor pick.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Dallas Cowboys 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle -8

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

The Cowboys have greatly exceeded my expectations. By far the biggest surprise has been the play of their defense. They haven’t been good or anything, but considering the complete lack of talent they came into the season with, a lot of credit needs to be given to new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli for turning this into an at least serviceable unit that allows the offense to do their thing. Rolando McClain has been the biggest surprise as the embattled former 1st round pick seems to have put his career back on the right track and is playing the best football of his career, but players like Sterling Moore and Tyrone Crawford have also exceeded expectations and free agent pickup Henry Melton has been key. I don’t expect the Cowboys to be as good as they’ve looked through 4 games all season, but they’re going to contend for a playoff spot.

However, they’re in a terrible spot here as they have a huge game in Seattle on deck. Teams are 70-99 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 54-88 ATS as favorites before being underdogs of a touchdown or more, which the Cowboys could easily be considering Green Bay and Denver were 7.5 and 5 point underdogs in Seattle this season. Dallas also tends to fall flat as big home favorites. This is the first time they’ve been in this situation this season and they might be playing with less of a chip on their shoulder as a result. They are 12-20 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more since 2009. Finally, I think we’re getting significant line value with the Texans. This line should be 4 or 4.5 at most. The Cowboys aren’t 3 points better than a decent Texans team. This line was 3 a week ago. I’m going to fade the overreaction and the line movement and take the points here.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Medium

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