Dolphins

Miami Dolphins trade WR Mike Wallace to the Minnesota Vikings

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized, Vikings

Trade for Dolphins: It’s no secret the Dolphins have been trying to get rid of Mike Wallace all off-season and the writing on the wall got put into dark ink when the Dolphins traded for Kenny Stills. Credit them for being able to trade him, rather than outright releasing him. That has two benefits. The obvious one is the compensation, even if it is just a swap of a 7th round pick for a 5th round pick. The other benefit is that the Dolphins get out of his 3 million dollar guarantee. If they had cut him, they would have had to pay 3 million of his 9.9 million dollar salary for 2015. By trading him, his whole salary goes to Minnesota. That boosts the cap savings of getting rid of him from 2.5 million to 5.5 million and he’ll be completely off of their cap for 2016. This was a great move by the Dolphins.

Trade for Vikings: I like this move for the Dolphins. I don’t get it for the Vikings. This move allows them to release Greg Jennings, a move that will save them 5 million on the cap and 9 million in cash, but they go from one overpaid receiver to another. There’s a reason why the Dolphins were trying to get rid of Wallace so badly. Wallace is a solid receiver, but his last 1000+ yard year was in 2011, also the last season he graded out above average.

In his final year in Pittsburgh in 2012, he held out long into the off-season, which caused him to have a horrible season. His 64/836/8 slash line wasn’t terrible, but he caught just 55.2% of his targets and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. That didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving Wallace a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal and he predictably didn’t live up to it, grading out below average in both seasons, putting up slash lines of 73/930/5 and 67/862/10, and reportedly quitting on his team on multiple occasions. It’s possible this trade could serve as a wake-up call for him, but it’s not worth 9.9 million to find out. Even picks aside, they overpaid for Wallace.

Grade: C-

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins sign DT Ndamukong Suh

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Suh is a fantastic football player, one of the best defensive tackles in the game, and arguably one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position. He’s been a top-4 defensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, joining only Gerald McCoy as the only two players who can say that. However, there’s no way this isn’t an overpay. This deal will pay Suh 114 million dollars over 6 seasons (19 million dollars annually) with 60 million of that guaranteed. That 19 million dollar annual salary is 5th highest in the NFL regardless of position and the 4 players who make more annually than Suh will on this deal are all quarterbacks.

This is too much for any non-quarterback, except for maybe JJ Watt, but he’s on his own level. The Dolphins are paying a premium to sign Suh on the open market in a bidding war and this just simply isn’t as team friendly of a deal as the one Houston gave to Watt (6-years, 100 million with 51.8 million guaranteed) and Tampa Bay gave to McCoy (7-year, 98 million with 51.5 million guaranteed) last off-season. It’s not a terrible deal or anything, but it’s further proof that it’s always better to build through the draft and lock up your own guys than it is to build through free agency. Miami would have been better off re-signing Jared Odrick for 8 million annually and adding another top free agent to their secondary or their offensive line with the leftover money.

Grade: C+

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Guard

The Dolphins had one of the worst offensive lines in football in 2013 and their solution was to basically have an all new starting 5 in 2014, with 4 new starters and no one playing at the same spot as they played in 2013. It didn’t really work out as only left tackle Branden Albert graded out above average and he went down for the season with a torn ACL week 10. Rookie 1st first round pick Ja’Waun James struggled at both tackle spots, especially struggling on the blindside with Albert gone, while former center Mike Pouncey struggled mightily in his first season at right guard. At left guard and center respectively, veteran journeymen Daryn Colledge and Samson Satele showed why they were so easily available the previous off-season. The Dolphins expect Albert to make a full recovery at left tackle and they still like James’ long-term upside at right tackle and Pouncey could turn it around in 2015 back at his natural position, but they still have major holes at the guard positions. Their current options at the position are Shelley Smith, who could be a cap casualty after barely playing in the first season of a multi-year deal, Dallas Thomas, a 2013 3rd round pick who was horrible in limited action at both guard and tackle in 2014, after barely playing as a rookie in 2013, and Billy Turner, who played just 17 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2014. They need to add talent at the position.

Wide Receiver

The Dolphins signed Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and Brandon Gibson to significant contracts to be their top-3 receivers two off-seasons ago, but none of them lived up to it and all 3 are candidates to be cap casualties this off-season. Wallace has been the best of them, but he’s also the highest paid, as he’s owed 9.9 million in 2015, only 3 million of which is guaranteed. He’s had issues with the coaching staff and the Dolphins have publicly talked about cutting him, a move that would save them 2.5 million immediately on the cap and 6.9 million in cash. Brian Hartline has been with the team for 6 years and is trusted by Ryan Tannehill, but he was the worst of the trio last year, grading out 103rd out of 110 eligible wide receivers and the Dolphins can save 5.95 million in cash and 3.15 million immediately on the cap by letting him go. Gibson seems like the most likely to be cut as he’s fallen to 4th at best on the depth chart. He played just 516 snaps in 2014, grading out 100th out of 110 eligible wide receivers, and the Dolphins can save 3.26 million both in cash and immediately on the cap by letting him go. The Dolphins like the long-term potential of 2014 2nd round pick Jarvis Landry, who was their best receiver last season as a rookie, but they need a long-term option opposite him. This is something they could address with the 14th overall pick of the draft. DeVante Parker and Kevin White would both fit the range.

Cornerback

The Dolphins signed Cortland Finnegan to an ill-advised 2-year, 11 million dollar contract last off-season to start opposite Brent Grimes, after a horrendous 2013 season in St. Louis, and he responded by grading out 74th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. He’s expected to be cut this off-season, a move that would save them 5.475 million in cash and immediately on the cap. Meanwhile, slot cornerback Jimmy Wilson is a free agent this off-season and could be moved to safety if he’s re-signed. Their #2 and #3 cornerback positions are wide open right now, while #1 cornerback Brent Grimes is going into his age 32 season and won’t be able to play at a high level much longer. They need a long-term successor for him. The Dolphins have used picks on Jamar Taylor (2nd round in 2013), Will Davis (3rd round in 2013), and Walt Aikens (4th round in 2014) in recent drafts, but none of them have played much so far in their respective careers. Taylor and Davis have played 345 and 200 snaps respectively in 2 seasons in the league combined, while Aikens played 64 snaps as a rookie. Adding a blue chip talent to the mix this off-season could be an option and this is another position they could look at with the 14th overall pick.

Safety

Louis Delmas was the starter next to Reshad Jones at safety last season, but he’s a free agent this off-season. On top of that, he tore his ACL week 14 and his status is very much in doubt for the start of the 2015 season, especially given his history of knee problems. The 2009 2nd round pick has missed 18 games in 6 seasons in the league, been limited in countless others, and only played all 16 games once in a season. The Dolphins could easily be looking at a new starter at the position this off-season. Jimmy Wilson was their in house replacement for him last season, but he’s a free agent as well and the Dolphins also like him as their nickel cornerback.

Running Back

Running back depth is needed with both Knowshon Moreno and Daniel Thomas set to hit free agency. Lamar Miller had a very impressive 5.09 YPC average in 2014, but the Dolphins are hesitant to make him a 250-300 carry back because of his tendency to wear out as the game goes on (he was at 216 carries in 2014). He’s also not great on passing downs. The Dolphins need to add a running back behind him who is capable of both passing down duties and giving Miller regular breathers on running downs.

Tight End

Charles Clay has put up solid numbers as a pass catcher over the past two seasons, going for 69/759/6 in 2013 and then 58/605/3 in 2014 in 14 games. He’s not a great inline blocker, but he can line up all over the formation and the Dolphins don’t have another pass catching tight end on the roster. If they’re unable to re-sign him this off-season, he’ll need to be replaced. Dion Sims is a solid #2 tight end, but not much more.

Defensive Tackle

Things are in flux at the defensive tackle position. Jared Odrick was their best defensive tackle last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked defensive tackle, but he’s a free agent this off-season and might sign elsewhere. Earl Mitchell and Randy Starks are their other two defensive tackles, but neither of them was very good in the first season of their new multi-year deals. Mitchell still has guaranteed money left on his deal, and he’s still under 30 and played decently last season, so he’ll be back, but the same might not be true of Starks, who they are rumored to be interested in letting go. Starks graded out slightly below average last season, for the first time since 2007. They may opt to give him another chance because of his history, but he’s going into his age 32 season and owed 5 million non-guaranteed, all of which they can save on the cap immediately by cutting him, so they may just outright cut him instead. Even if they don’t, he’s aging and going into a contract year so a long-term solution at the position is needed.

Outside Linebacker

The Dolphins gave Dannell Ellerbe a 5-year, 34.75 million dollar deal and Philip Wheeler a 5-year, 26 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago. Neither of those deals worked out at all. Both were among the worst in the NFL at their respective positions in 2013 and neither was much of a factor in 2014. Ellerbe was limited to 18 snaps by a season ending injury suffered week 1 and Wheeler played 384 snaps in a situational role. Fortunately, Jelani Jenkins and Koa Misi stepped up as starting caliber players this season. They just need one more starter in the linebacking corps, a 3rd linebacker who plays only in base packages. Jason Trusnik and Wheeler had small roles in the linebacking corps last season and did decently, but Trusnik is a free agent going into his age 31 season, while Wheeler could be a cap casualty this off-season. Cutting Wheeler would only save 200K on the cap, but it would get them out of a 3 million dollar salary and get him completely off their cap for 2016.

Center

Mike Pouncey missed the first 4 games of the season with a hip problem and the Dolphins played Samson Satele at center in his absence. Upon his return, they opted to leave Satele at center and move Pouncey to right guard, a move that didn’t work out at all. Satele finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked center out of 41 eligible and Pouncey (Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked center in 2013), struggled mightily out of position at right guard, grading out 69th out of 78 eligible at his position. Pouncey will be moving back to center for 2015 and could easily bounce back now that he’s fully healthy and at his natural position, but there are no guarantees and he’s going into a contract year anyway.

Key Free Agents

DT Jared Odrick

Odrick was a first round pick in 2010, but it took him a few years to get it together. Odrick was limited to 22 snaps as a rookie in 2010 by injury, struggled in his first year as a starter in 2011 as a 3-4 defensive end, and then struggled even more in 2012 as a 4-3 defensive end, grading out 59th out of 62 eligible at his position that year. However, the Dolphins moved him back to his natural position of 4-3 defensive tackle in 2013 and the results have been great. He was 16th at his position in 2013 and then 19th in 2014. Coming off two straight strong seasons, Odrick will command a lot of money on the open market, especially from 4-3 teams who need someone who can get to the quarterback from the interior like Odrick can. The Dolphins obviously want him back and may consider the franchise tag as an option if they can’t reach a long-term deal ahead of the deadline.

TE Charles Clay

Clay, a 2011 6th round pick, has broken out as a solid pass catching tight end over the past 2 seasons, catching 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2013 and 58 passes for 605 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s not much of an inline blocker, but the collegiate fullback can line up all over the formation and create matchup problems. The Dolphins will try to bring him back on a medium sized deal and, if he reaches the open market, he’ll draw a good amount of interest.

S Louis Delmas

Louis Delmas looked like a promising young safety in 2009 and 2010, starting 30 games in his first 2 years in the league after the Lions drafted him in the 2nd round in 2009, grading out above average in both seasons. However, knee problems limited him to 19 games in 2011 and 2012 and he graded out below average in both of those seasons. He seemed to turn his career around in Miami, making 29 straight starts and playing decently as a starting safety, but he tore his ACL week 14 this season, which puts his 2015 in doubt, given his history. He’ll draw interest on the open market, but not a lot of guaranteed money and he might have to wait into the summer to sign.

QB Matt Moore

Moore only attempted 29 passes over the past 3 seasons combined in Miami as Ryan Tannehill has made 48 straight starts to begin his career, but he wasn’t horrible in his last extended playing time in 2011, completing 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He graded out 13th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus that season. The fact that he hasn’t played much in the last 3 seasons hurts him, but he’s only going into his age 31 season and got 8 million over 2 years on his last deal. He should get a similar deal this off-season from a team with more of a quarterback need than the Dolphins and he could make a few starts somewhere in 2015.

CB Jimmy Wilson

Wilson was just a 7th round pick by the Dolphins in 2011, but he’s played 600+ snaps in each of the last 3 seasons, including a career high 791 snaps in 2014, as he was their primary nickel cornerback and made several starts at safety as well, with Delmas getting hurt to end the season and Jones getting suspended for the start of the season. He graded out below average in 2014, making it twice in three seasons that he’s done that, but the Dolphins like his versatility a lot and will probably extend him a decent sized offer to try to bring him back to a secondary that has a lot of questions outside of Brent Grimes and Reshad Jones. If he’s not back with the Dolphins, he’ll play a similar role elsewhere.

RB Knowshon Moreno

Knowshon Moreno had over 1500 yards from scrimmage in 2013 (1038 rushing and 548 receiving), but was still available about 3 weeks into free agency and was forced to sign a 1-year deal worth 3 million. There were reasons for that. The running back position has been strongly devalued in the NFL. Also, as much production as Moreno had in 2013, much of it was the product of Peyton Manning. Moreno rarely faced stacked boxes and, much more often than not, was running against boxes of 6 or fewer defenders. In spite of that, he actually just rushed for 4.31 yards per carry, which isn’t a spectacular average. He also missed 20 games from 2010-2012 and had just 426 touches over those 3 seasons. In his one year in Miami, he was limited to 31 carries by knee problems and now he’s rehabbing the second torn ACL of his NFL career. He won’t draw a lot of interest on the open market. In 6 years since the Broncos drafted him in the 1st round in 2009, he’s rushed for 3616 yards and 27 touchdowns on 876 carries (4.13 YPC), while catching 158 passes for 1409 yards and another 9 touchdowns, very unspectacular overall numbers.

C Samson Satele

Satele was Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked center out of 35 eligible in 2013 with the Colts and had to wait until August to get signed, but the Dolphins started him week 1 at center and left him there even after Mike Pouncey returned from injury after 4 games. As I mentioned earlier, that was a huge mistake and not just because Pouncey mightily struggled at right guard. Satele also struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked center out of 41 eligible. Going into his age 31 season, off of three straight years in which he’s graded out below average, Satele won’t draw a lot of interest on the open market. He’ll have to wait a while to get signed again and might not find starting work.

RB Daniel Thomas

Daniel Thomas was a 2nd round pick by the Dolphins in 2011, but he never turned into the starting running back they wanted him to be. He rushed for 1480 yards and 10 touchdowns on 409 carries (3.62 YPC) in 4 seasons with the Dolphins and didn’t contribute much as a pass catcher, with 55 catches in those 4 seasons. He had a career low 44 carries in 2014 and won’t draw much interest on the open market.

G Daryn Colledge

Like Satele, Colledge was signed late last off-season and ended up playing a significant role, signing in late June and eventually starting 13 starts at left guard. Colledge was horrible though, grading out 74th out of 78 eligible guards. He wasn’t that bad even as recently as 2013 in his last stop in Arizona, but, going into his age 33 season, he could be at the end of the line.

Cap Casualty Candidates

MLB Dannell Ellerbe

Ellerbe was about as bad as a free agent signing can be. Ellerbe signed a 5-year, 34.25 million dollar deal with the Dolphins two off-seasons ago and proceeded to grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 50th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He moved to outside linebacker for 2014, but ended up missing all but 18 snaps with a hip injury, which actually probably helped the Dolphins, considering how bad he was in 2013 and how well Jelani Jenkins played in his absence in his first season as a starter. Ellerbe was essentially 14 million guaranteed down the toilet. The deal didn’t make any sense for the start.  Ellerbe, a 2009 undrafted free agent, maxed out at 456 snaps in a season from 2009-2011, but he had a solid 2012 season, grading out 14th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus on 667 regular season snaps and then followed that up with a strong post-season, en route to a Super Bowl victory by the Ravens. That’s what got him paid, but he was a one year wonder that wasn’t worth his contract even at his best. Cutting him to save 8.45 million in cash and 5.65 million on the cap is about as much of a no brainer as there is.

CB Cortland Finnegan

Cortland Finnegan was Pro Football Focus’ 109th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible in 2013 with the Rams, despite being limited to 364 snaps by injuries. No one played fewer snaps at the position and graded out worse. That led to his release from St. Louis, but the Dolphins clearly didn’t watch his 2013 tape as they handed him a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal last off-season. Finnegan proceeded to grade out 74th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. Cutting him would save the Dolphins 5.475 million on the cap and in cash, so I expect them to do that. Finnegan, going into his age 31 season, seems done as a starting caliber cornerback in the NFL.

WR Brandon Gibson

As I mentioned earlier, Gibson is one of three wide receivers that the Dolphins gave a significant contract to two off-seasons ago and, while all 3 could be cut this off-season, Gibson is the one who is most likely to be gone. Gibson’s deal was worth 9.755 million over 3 years, but he played just 771 snaps combined in 2 seasons and graded out 100th out of 110 eligible wide receivers in 2014. He was limited to 7 games by a torn patellar tendon in 2013 and then fell behind talented rookie Jarvis Landry on the depth chart in 2014. Cutting him would save the Dolphins both 3.26 million in cash and immediately on the salary cap.

OLB Philip Wheeler

Like Dannell Ellerbe’s, Philip Wheeler’s 5-year deal from two off-seasons ago went about as bad as it could have and it was predictable from the start. Wheeler was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013 and then was limited to 384 snaps and 4 starts in 2014 after getting benched. Wheeler was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2012, which got him a 5-year, 26 million dollar deal from the Dolphins, even though, prior to 2012, he had graded out below average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2008. Also prior to 2012, he never had played more than 537 snaps in a season, so, like Ellerbe, he was the definition of a one year wonder and, over the past 2 seasons, he’s been 13 million guaranteed down the toilet. He’s not as much of a lock to be cut as Ellerbe because he showed enough last season in limited action to suggest that he could be valuable as a 3rd linebacker who only plays in base packages and because the Dolphins would only save 200K by cutting him, as a result of how his contract is structured, but the Dolphins would save 3 million in cash by cutting him now and he’d be completely off their 2016 cap.

WR Brian Hartline

Brian Hartline has been with the Dolphins since they drafted him in the 4th round in 2009, 6 seasons, and he was their leading receiver in both 2012 and 2013, but he’s coming off of an awful 2014 campaign. He caught just 39 passes for 474 yards and 2 touchdowns on 62 attempts (62.9%) and 490 routes run, an average of 0.99 yards per route run. He was Pro Football Focus’ 103rd ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible and the Dolphins would save 5.95 million in cash and 3.15 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

WR Mike Wallace

Wallace is a solid receiver, but his last 1000+ yard year was in 2011 and, in his final year in Pittsburgh, he held out long into the off-season, which caused him to have a horrible season. His 64/836/8 slash line wasn’t terrible, but he caught just 55.2% of his targets and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. That didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving Wallace a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal and he hasn’t lived up to it, grading out below average in both seasons, putting up slash lines of 73/930/5 and 67/862/10, and reportedly quitting on his team on multiple occasions. Wallace has 3 million guaranteed left on his deal for 2015, but the Dolphins have already publicly said that he might not be back next season. Cutting him would save 6.9 million in cash, 2.5 million on the cap, and get him completely off their cap for 2016.

DT Randy Starks

Randy Starks graded out slightly below average last season, but this was uncharacteristic for him as he had previously graded out above average in every season since 2007. Still, he’s going into his age 32 season so his best days may be behind him and the Dolphins are reportedly considering cutting him, a move that would save 5 million in cash and immediately on the cap. What they decide to do with him may hinge on how confident they feel that they can re-sign Odrick.

G Shelley Smith

The Dolphins signed Shelley Smith to a 2-year, 5.5 million dollar deal last off-season, but he only played 367 snaps, despite terrible play on the Dolphins’ offensive line all season. Smith himself was also terrible, grading out 54th out of 78 eligible despite the limited playing time. The Dolphins can save 2.75 million in cash and cap space by cutting him this off-season and if they don’t feel he can be a starter in 2015, they could easily pull the trigger on that move.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub}

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)

The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1, the 4th straight Patriots/Jets game decided by 3 or fewer points and the 5th in the last 6. This week, going into Miami, the Jets could be completely flat after coming so close and falling short in their Super Bowl.

On top of that, this line is way too low. I don’t understand this at all. The Dolphins were 7 point favorites in New York a few weeks ago and now they’re only 5 point favorites at home in Miami. Sure, they didn’t cover last time around, but they still did get a tough road victory. The Dolphins haven’t been great in recent weeks, getting blown out at home by the Ravens and on the road in New England, but they had a strong performance last week at home against the Vikings. The final score says they only won by 2, but they won the first down battle 36-20.

Now on the season, the Dolphins rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.56% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 2.40%. The Jets, conversely, rank all the way down at 27, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 72.08% for their opponents, a differential of -4.11%. We’re getting a lot of line value with the Dolphins, who don’t have any distractions during week 17 with their coach’s future publicly assured and should be able to take care of a drastically inferior opponent who could be flat off of last week’s close loss with Rex Ryan likely to be fired after the game.

Miami Dolphins 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Miami -5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)

At first glance, this line is actually a little bit too low at 7. The Dolphins rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.16% rate, as opposed to 72.84% for their opponents, a differential of 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank all the way down at 27th, moving the chains at a 69.08% rate, as opposed to 72.55% for their opponents, a differential of -3.48%. That suggests that the line should be around 8. However, over the past 4 weeks, the Dolphins move the chains at a 73.33% rate, as opposed to 82.09% for their opponents, a differential of -8.76%.

The fact that they’ve played Denver, New England, and Baltimore over that 4 weeks stretch probably didn’t help, but they also almost lost in New York to the Jets. On top of that, the Ravens aren’t nearly as good on the road and they blew out the Dolphins in Miami. And New England is a tough opponent, but they got completely blown out. They only covered once in that 4 game stretch. They aren’t the same team as they were a month ago, partially as a result of injuries. As bad as the Vikings have been this year, they don’t quite deserve to be touchdown underdogs here.

The Vikings are also in a great spot here in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 112-77 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 95-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game.

Both of these two teams have easy games next week, with the Dolphins hosting the Jets and the Vikings hosting the Bears. Both teams will be 6+ favorites next week, but the Vikings are in a slightly better spot because they’re the underdog here. Non-divisional road underdogs are 124-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. Underdogs of 6 or more are 145-96 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 6 or more. Combining the two, non-divisional road underdogs of 6 or more before being divisional home favorites of 6 or more are 39-23 ATS since 1989. At the same time though, favorites of 6 or more (like the Dolphins) are 95-64 ATS since 2010 before being favorites of 6 or more. The Vikings seem like the right side, but I’m not super confident.

Miami Dolphins 20 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (7-6) at New England Patriots (10-3)

Both of these two teams are in great spots. The Dolphins are playing arguably the biggest game of their season (a must-win on the road against division rival New England), with no upcoming distractions, as their next game is a home game against Minnesota. The early line in the Minnesota game has them as 7 point favorites. Teams are 108-77 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, including 18-6 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, a trend that is 39-15 ATS going back to 1989.

However, it’s not like the Patriots have any upcoming distractions either, with a trip to New York to take on the lowly Jets up next. The early line has them favored by 10. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002).

The Patriots are usually very good at home, in revenge games, and late in the season, which they have going for them here. The Patriots are undefeated at home over the past two seasons, winning 15 games by an average of 13.93 points per game and covering 11 times. Meanwhile, they haven’t lost to a divisional opponent twice in the same regular season since 2000, going 9-0 straight up and 9-0 ATS in same season divisional revenge games since 2001. Finally, they are 33-4 straight up in the 2nd half of the season since 2010, going 23-13 ATS, including 18-1 straight up at home, 12-7 ATS.

This line is too high for me to be confident though. The Patriots are just 10-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season since 2010 as 7+ point favorites and just 5-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more over the past 2 seasons. Besides, Miami is better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.64% rate, as opposed to 72.06% for their opponents, a differential of 2.58%. The Patriots are obviously very good, ranking 2nd, moving the chains at a 77.58% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.29%, but this line is still too high for me to be confident. The Patriots are my pick though.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)

The Dolphins are the better of these two teams, but they are only favored by 2.5 here at home (less than the average homefield advantage adjustment of 3). The Dolphins rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75.06% rate, as opposed to 70.69%, a differential of 4.37%. Meanwhile, the Ravens rank 9th, moving the chains at a 77.46% rate, as opposed to 73.92% for their opponents, a differential of 3.54%.

This line is too low even before you take into account that the Ravens aren’t as good on the road as they are at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 33-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.03 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. This season alone, they move the chains at a 74.47% rate on the road, as opposed to 76.50% for their opponents, a differential of -2.03%.

The Dolphins are in a horrible spot though, as they have their toughest game of the season next week, as they head to New England. Meanwhile, the Ravens host the Jaguars next week, which will probably be their easiest game of the season. Non-divisional home favorites are 88-107 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 113-75 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites and teams are 119-96 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008. Combining these two, teams are 103-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m still taking the Dolphins, but I might take the Ravens if the line was 3. It’s that close.

Miami Dolphins 23 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-5) at New York Jets (2-9)

The Jets were blown out last Monday, losing 38-3 in Detroit to the Bills in a game that had both its time and its location moved by a snow storm in Buffalo. Teams generally don’t do well off of a Monday Night blowout loss, going 18-28 ATS since 2002 after a loss on Monday Night by 21 or more. However, it’s unclear if the same type of thing will happen here because that game wasn’t nationally televised so it wasn’t as embarrassing.

The Jets also play again on Monday Night Football here, so they’ll have an extra day to regroup that they wouldn’t have otherwise had. There’s almost no data on teams playing back-to-back Monday Night games because the NFL doesn’t schedule those for teams. It takes a special act of nature for something like this to happen so that kind of leaves us in the dark in terms of what the Jets’ mental state will be this week and whether or not they’ll be able to bounce back. We do know that teams generally do well off of a blowout loss by 35 or more in general, going 47-25 ATS since 2002. This makes sense as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot.

However, on the other hand, divisional home underdogs do not do well in nationally televised night games, going 31-59 ATS since 1989. They’re also the significantly inferior team here as the Dolphins remain better than their record, especially after coming close to knocking off the Broncos in Denver last week. They still rank 4th, moving the chains at a 75.76% rate, as opposed to 70.94% for their opponents, a differential of 4.82%.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 68.22% rate, as opposed to 73.54% for their opponents, a differential of -5.31%. Making things even worse for the Jets, Muhammad Wilkerson is expected to be out for this game and he’s one of their few good players. As high as this line is at 6.5, it’s not quite high enough so while the Jets could be overlooked and embarrassed, I don’t think they’re undervalued. There’s not enough here for me to be that confident in Miami, but they should be the right side.

Miami Dolphins 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Miami -6.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3)

The Broncos suffered a shocking loss in St. Louis last Sunday, losing 22-7 as 10 point road favorites. However, that was a very fluky loss and the Broncos played a lot better than the final score suggested. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were overly reliant on a +2 turnover margin. The Broncos moved the chains at a 68.75% rate, as opposed to 60.71% for the Rams. On the season, the Broncos are still first in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 77.62% rate, as opposed to 70.09% for their opponents, a differential of 7.52%.

Despite that, we’re still getting significant line value with the Dolphins as the Dolphins are better than their 6-4 record suggests. Their +69 point differential is actual the same as Denver’s. All 6 of their wins have come by 13 points or more and two of their losses came by 4 points or less against two very solid teams (Green Bay, Detroit). They rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 74.47% rate, as opposed to 68.44% for their opponents, a differential of 6.03%. This line is way too high, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas in doubt for the Broncos this week.

On top of that, the Dolphins have a much easier game up next, as they head to New York to play the Jets, while the Broncos have to go to Kansas City for one of their toughest games of the season. The Broncos have a way bigger distraction on the horizon, which is going to make it much harder for them to cover here. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. Conversely, teams are 40-31 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road favorites.

Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 36-13 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 85-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 54-33 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more. The Dolphins will almost definitely be favored by 4 or more next week in New York against the Jets. As long as the line is more than a touchdown, this is my Pick of the Week.

Denver Broncos 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)

The Bills might be the team with the biggest disparity in terms of their record versus how well they’ve actually played. They may be 5-4, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record. They move the chains at a 65.17% rate, as opposed to 67.93% for their opponents, a differential of -2.76% that ranks 22nd in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are also 5-4, but they’re significantly better. They move the chains at a 73.99% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for their opponents, a differential of 4.76% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That suggests that the Dolphins should be favored by more than the 5.5 points they are favored by here.

However, the Dolphins are in a terrible spot, as they head to Denver next week, while the Bills host the lowly Jets. Teams are 59-42 ATS since 2002 as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while divisional home favorites are 98-114 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. I’m going to go with the trends and take the Bills, fading the public in the process, but I’m not confident at all.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]