Dolphins

Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (-3)

Record: 4-4

I’ll get into the Richie Incognito situation in depth in a different place, but purely on the field, I think it’s going to have a very negative effect. They are probably going to be without 2 of their starting offensive linemen for the season on an offensive line that was already one of the worst in the NFL. It’s also going to be a huge distraction and disruption of team chemistry. I don’t see them being able to get up for winless Tampa Bay this weekend and this isn’t the type of team that can afford to be distracted and unprepared. Largely due to their weak offensive line, they are moving the chains at a mere 70% rate offensively, while their retooled defense is not living up to expectations, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. Their schedule isn’t easy from here on out, especially if they can’t beat Tampa Bay. After Tampa Bay, 5 of their final 7 games are against teams currently 4-4 or better and one of them who isn’t is a sneaky good Buffalo team that already beat them in Miami.

Week 9 Studs

QB Ryan Tannehill

C Mike Pouncey

LE Cameron Wake

RE Olivier Vernon

Week 9 Duds

LOLB Philip Wheeler

SS Reshad Jones

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Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)

The Dolphins haven’t had an ordinary week. They’ve spent a lot of the week answering questions about the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin situation and dealing with the NFL and the media. That’s a huge distraction, before you even get into the fact that this already weak offensive line is going to be missing 2 starters. I don’t have all of the information on the situation. Very few people do. But I’m starting to side with Incognito, considering all the people on Incognito’s side are players and ex-players and everyone on Martin’s side are media members who never played. I have to side with the players on a situation like this.

It’s an unfortunate situation, but it sounds like Martin was just going throw an NFL initiation and being toughened up by a veteran player and he just couldn’t handle it. It sounds like Incognito took a special interest into making sure Martin would succeed and was his friend. I’m not saying Incognito didn’t cross a line, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a bad guy. In other places in the world, Incognito would not be able to fit in. He couldn’t have a desk job or fit into the real world or anything, but he’s a great fit for the NFL, which isn’t really the real world.  The NFL isn’t the right place for Martin. By NFL standards, this guy is a huge pussy. He’s much better suited for a real job than Incognito. He should just do that. He has a degree from Stanford. He can still be very successful in his life. He shouldn’t have to play football.

Anyway, this situation is going to be a huge distraction for the Dolphins this week. As much as they want to say they are, they won’t be focused for this week, especially since they are playing the winless Buccaneers. After a certain point, there is value with betting on winless teams. Winless home dogs are 19-11 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989. They’ll be much, much more focused for this game than the Dolphins.

I don’t think there is as big of a talent disparity between these two teams as their record would suggest. In fact, the Dolphins actually rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 27th. The Dolphins’ offense is moving the chains at a 70% rate, largely due to poor offensive line play, which is only going to get worse, while the retooled defense isn’t doing their job, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate and only allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. I’m not saying they’re better than the Dolphins, but they’re better than their record (ask Seattle) and the Dolphins aren’t as good as their record. I think the Buccaneers pull the upset here against a distracted Miami team. As long as I’m getting a field goal with the Buccaneers, I have high confidence in them at least covering.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 19 (-3)

Record: 3-4

The Patriots, by no means, played a good football game this week, but they still were able to beat the Dolphins, who lost by 10 and look nothing like the team that was supposed to compete for the division after a 3-0 start. They still might not even be as good as their 3-4 record would suggest, as they allow opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 76% for their defense, a differential that is 27th in the NFL. I don’t know if they’ll finish quite as bad as the 2011 Bills or the 2012 Cardinals, who both collapsed after strong starts, but they could be close.

Week 8 Studs

C Mike Pouncey

Week 8 Duds

RT Jonathan Martin

DT Paul Soliai

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Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

I could go either way on this one. The Bengals had a huge offensive outburst last week, scoring 49 points. Ordinarily, teams are able to maintain that kind of momentum into their next week. Favorites are 27-17 ATS since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. However, they are just 14-11 ATS as road favorites. The line did shift a point and a half since last week as a result of the Bengals’ blowout and the public is still all over the Bengals, but it didn’t pass the key number of 3 and I don’t think the line is ridiculous or anything.

I don’t like we’re getting serious value with the Bengals or anything, but the Dolphins are still not as good as their record. They’re moving the chains at a 71% rate offensively as a result of a terrible offensive line, while their retooled defense isn’t living up to expectations, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. That differential is 27th in the NFL. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 11th in the NFL. I have the line calculated at about 3 or 3.5 in favor of Cincinnati. I have no confidence in either side, but I’ll take the Bengals as long as it’s below the key number of 3 and hope for a field goal game.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New England Patriots (5-2)

Tom Brady has not played well this season. A lot of people are giving him a pass because of the state of his receiving corps and that’s obviously been an issue, but you can’t give him a total pass. His arm strength is noticeably diminished, something that’s been a trend over the past few seasons, and his timing and accuracy have been off as well. He’s completed fewer than 50% of his passes 3 times this season, something he had previously done just 3 times since week 2 of the 2006 season. He has failed to throw a touchdown in 2 of his last 3 games, after throwing one in his previous 52.

ProFootballFocus grades him out as the 21st best passing quarterback this season, in between Michael Vick and Carson Palmer. Brady got Rob Gronkowski back last week, but still completed less than 50% of his passes in an eventual loss to the Jets. You can argue whether or not that pushing penalty should have been called, considering the stakes and how frequently it goes uncalled, and you can argue whether or not the Patriots would have won that game if it wasn’t called, but you can’t deny that Tom Brady really struggled.

Fortunately, Brady should have a much better game this week for 3 reasons. One is that his receiving corps will be the best it’s been all season. Again, his receiving corps hasn’t been the whole issue, but an improved receiving corps certainly won’t hurt him. Gronkowski will probably play a full set of snaps for the first time all season and his chemistry and timing with Brady should be improved in his 2nd game back. Danny Amendola also returns from a concussion. He might not play a full set of snaps and his timing and chemistry with Brady could be off, but, at the same time, he’s practiced all week and only missed a week, so he could be a real asset.

The 2nd reason is that he’s always better off of a loss. In his career, he is 27-15 ATS off a loss, including 17-8 ATS off a loss as favorites. Since 2003, he’s lost back-to-back games just 5 times, going 30-5 SU off a loss. Remember when he was terrible in Cincinnati and then bounced back to beat New Orleans the next week? He’s still capable of that kind of thing, even if he’s not playing like the quarterback we’re used to him being.

The 3rd reason is that, while the Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Dolphins have a below average stop unit. The Jets are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68% rate, while the Dolphins are allowing opponents to do so at a 76% rate. The Patriots are moving the chains at an uncharacteristically bad 72% rate, slightly below league average, but it definitely helps to go from facing a dominant stop unit on the road to a mediocre stop unit back in Foxboro.

The Dolphins also have issues offensively, as they are moving the chains at a mere 70% rate, thanks largely to the fact that they’ve allowed 26 sacks on the season. In order to remedy the issue, the Dolphins traded for Bryant McKinnie, who will immediately be put in at left tackle, moving Jonathan Martin to right tackle, to take the place of the suddenly aging Tyson Clabo, who has looked completely out of place in the Dolphins’ zone blocking scheme this season.

However, I am very skeptical about how good he can be just 6 days after being traded for. He might need another week to get settled in. I also question how good the 34-year-old can be. There’s a reason why he was a healthy scratch towards the end of his time in Baltimore. I also question the 360 pounder’s fit on a Miami offensive line that is trying to do more and more zone blocking. Plus, a lot of the offensive line’s problem has been that Tannehill is taking too many sacks, taking one on 29.9% of pressured snaps, by far the highest percentage in the NFL. The Dolphins’ offense should continue to struggle this week, especially against a New England defense that is really carrying the team with the offense struggling. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 70% rate and this week they get back Aqib Talib, who was sorely missed against the Jets.

The Dolphins -6% differential in rate of moving the chains is actually 29th in the NFL and I really believe they are not as good as their record. Given that, I don’t think this line is high enough at 6.5, as unspectacular as the Patriots have been this season. I like the Patriots chances of bouncing back at home and not just winning but covering the spread with a balanced attack. It’s not a high confidence pick though.

New England Patriots 24 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: New England -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (-2)

Record: 3-3

Remember when the Dolphins started 3-0 and everyone thought they were awesome? I pointed out that 22 of 32 teams last year win at least 3 games in a row at some point, including the 7-9 Dolphins. Doing it at the beginning of the season makes it more noticeable, but not necessarily more impressive. In 2011, the Bills started 3-0 and the Cardinals started 4-0 in 2012. The Dolphins probably won’t finish that bad, but I don’t think they are a realistic playoff contender in the AFC. They have been worse than their 3-3 record, as they are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, a differential that is 29th in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill’s development has been stunted by 26 sacks in 6 games. That makes it very tough to move the chains consistently. Bryant McKinnie is coming in, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be a significant upgrade. There’s a reason he was a healthy scratch towards the end of his tenure in Baltimore.

Week 7 Studs

DT Jared Odrick

DT Randy Starks

Week 7 Duds

RT Tyson Clabo

TE Charles Clay

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)

The Bills are very underrated because of a tough defense. Their defense is allowing opponents to move the chains on 72% of opportunities thanks to very strong front 7 play from guys like Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, and Kiko Alonso. They are doing this without their top two defensive backs Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd playing a full set of snaps yet. Fortunately, they returned to limited action last week and seem set to play a full set of snaps this week, which will make their defense even tougher. As long as they can get at least passable quarterback play from Thaddeus Lewis, who played well in his debut last week, they have a very good chance to keep this game within the 7.5 point spread.

The Bills are just 2-4 on the season, but consider that they haven’t been favored in any of their first 6 games. They’ve faced a very tough schedule and yet they’ve lost just once by more than a touchdown and that was on a late pick six by Jeff Tuel against the Browns. They’ve been underdogs in all 4 of their home games, covering all 4 times, with upset wins over Baltimore and Carolina and near wins against the Bengals and Patriots. Those are all quality opponents. They’ve yet to cover on the road in 2 opportunities, but they hung tough with the Jets and Browns.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, remain overrated. They are 3-2, but just 1 of their wins came by more than 4 points. They are actually getting outscored on the season. When you look at how they are moving the chains, as opposed to how their opponents are, it’s even worse. Offensively, they are moving the chains at just a 71% rate. Ryan Tannehill is improved, but an offensive line that is on pace to set the NFL record for sacks allowed makes it tough to maintain consistent drives. The Bills’ tough front 4 will give them all sorts of trouble. Defensively, their retooled stop unit isn’t doing its job, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. That -7% differential is 28th in the NFL, worse than Buffalo, who, has I mentioned, has a great defense. This 7.5 point spread is ridiculous.

The Dolphins are also in a bad spot with the Patriots on deck. Since 2002, teams are a ridiculous 18-48 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs. I really like the underrated Bills’ chances to keep this within a touchdown against a distracted and overrated Dolphins team. The only reason the Bills are not a bigger play is because they will be double digit underdogs in New Orleans next week and teams are 31-64 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. There’s just too much to ignore though.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7.5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (+1)

Record: 3-2

Ryan Tannehill is on pace to be sacked 77 times this season, which would break the record of the 2002 expansion Houston Texans, who allowed David Carr to be sacked 76 times. He probably won’t reach that number, but their offensive line is still a massive concern. Part of it is Ryan Tannehill’s fault, as he’s taking a sack on 33.8% of pressured snaps, worst in the NFL. However, he’s only taking 2.28 seconds to attempt a pass, 2nd quickest in the NFL. Most of the problem is on the tackles, as Jonathan Martin and Tyson Clabo have each allowed 6 sacks. Those 12 sacks are half of the 24 sacks Tannehill has taken. Martin has been every bit as bad in pass protection as many expected him to be before the season, while Tyson Clabo has struggled mightily in Miami’s zone blocking scheme. Age might have caught up to him as well, in his age 32 season. Whatever the reason, it’s a huge problem, not just for their ability to move the ball downfield, but for Tannehill’s long-term development and his short-term health.

Week 5 Studs

QB Ryan Tannehill

LOLB Philip Wheeler

DT Jared Odrick

DT Paul Soliai

DT Randy Starks

Week 5 Duds

RG John Jerry

C Mike Pouncey

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)

The Ravens have been a completely different team this year at home as compared to on the road. At home, they’ve beaten both Cleveland and Houston, but on the road, they were blown out in Denver and lost in Buffalo. This is nothing new. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 point per game.

They’re on the road here again, but they have a better chance of covering and winning here for several reasons. First, they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are more used to being on the road. Even the Ravens, as much as they’ve struggled on the road, are 6-3 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2010. On top of that, teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in that situation as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

The Ravens also essentially get two players added to their team. Eugene Monroe comes in from Jacksonville. He probably doesn’t have the playbook fully down yet, but he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and an upgrade on an aging Bryant McKinnie. Ray Rice also should be much closer to 100% this week. He only got 5 carries last week in a loss to Buffalo because of his injury situation and the Ravens weren’t able to establish the run at all. He also didn’t catch a pass. They don’t have enough weapons to get away with not involving Rice in the passing game. He should have a bigger impact this week. I don’t like taking the Ravens on the road, but they should be the right side.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: Low

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