Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)

The Ravens have been a completely different team this year at home as compared to on the road. At home, they’ve beaten both Cleveland and Houston, but on the road, they were blown out in Denver and lost in Buffalo. This is nothing new. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 point per game.

They’re on the road here again, but they have a better chance of covering and winning here for several reasons. First, they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams tend to cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are more used to being on the road. Even the Ravens, as much as they’ve struggled on the road, are 6-3 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2010. On top of that, teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in that situation as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

The Ravens also essentially get two players added to their team. Eugene Monroe comes in from Jacksonville. He probably doesn’t have the playbook fully down yet, but he’s one of the better left tackles in the game and an upgrade on an aging Bryant McKinnie. Ray Rice also should be much closer to 100% this week. He only got 5 carries last week in a loss to Buffalo because of his injury situation and the Ravens weren’t able to establish the run at all. He also didn’t catch a pass. They don’t have enough weapons to get away with not involving Rice in the passing game. He should have a bigger impact this week. I don’t like taking the Ravens on the road, but they should be the right side.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 17

Record: 3-1

I said last week that starting 3-0 didn’t necessarily mean you were a good team. 22 of 32 teams won 3+ games in a row at some point last season, including the Dolphins, who finished 7-9. The Dolphins certainly didn’t look for real in a blowout loss to the Saints in New Orleans. Their offensive line is a huge problem, particularly right tackle Tyson Clabo, who is either showing his age and/or does not fit the zone blocking scheme. Defensively, they haven’t even been as good as they were supposed to, allowing opponents to move the chains at a very high 79% rate. Ryan Tannehill has definitely taken a big leap forward in his 2nd year in the league and that’s why the Dolphins can compete for a playoff spot in the AFC, but any talk of them being a serious competitor to a vulnerable Patriots team in the AFC East was premature.

Week 4 Studs

C Mike Pouncey

Week 4 Duds

WR Mike Wallace

RT Tyson Clabo

LOLB Philip Wheeler

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Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Saints, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0)

The Saints have held all 3 of their opponents this season to 17 or fewer points this season, something they did a total of 3 times last season. Young stars have broken out, especially Cameron Jordan, who is playing like an All-Pro back at his collegiate position of 5-technique defensive end. The offense doesn’t look right yet, but I don’t have big concerns about that going forward. The Saints could possibly be as complete as they’ve been in years this season.

The Dolphins are also 3-0, but I haven’t really changed from my pre-season projection for them because none of their wins have surprised me all that much. Teams win 3 games in a row all the time (22 of 32 teams did last season, including these Dolphins, who finished 7-9) and it’s not usually that impressive, but it’s just so much more noticeable when it happens at the start of the season. I’m not saying the Dolphins are the 2011 Bills or the 2012 Cardinals, but they are the worst of the 3-0 teams right now.

The Dolphins are also banged up right now. Paul Soliai and Cameron Wake are both questionable for this one and might not play. This isn’t a huge, huge deal because the Dolphins have a lot of defensive line depth, but Cameron Wake is one of the best defensive players in the entire NFL. Having him out or limited is going to have a noticeable impact on the Dolphins’ defense. It’s going to make it very tough for the Dolphins to slow Drew Brees and Ryan Tannehill will be forced to keep up. Tannehill is improved, but I don’t think he can win a shootout, especially against an improved defense that can take the ball away.

I’m also not betting against the Saints in the Superdome. They’ve won and covered their last 11 instances at home under Sean Payton, dating back to the start of the 2011 season. Brees is also historically been very good on Monday Night Football as a member of the Saints, going 8-4 ATS in these situations in his career. This line is pretty high, but as long as it’s under a touchdown, the Saints are clearly the right side. I think this could easily be a blowout that establishes the Saints as contenders and knocks the Dolphins down a notch.

New Orleans Saints 27 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 19 (+2)

The Dolphins are 3-0, but I haven’t really changed from my pre-season projection for them because none of their wins have surprised me all that much. Win in New Orleans this week and we can talk. Teams win 3 games in a row all the time (22 of 32 teams did last season, including these Dolphins, who finished 7-9) and it’s not usually that impressive, but it’s just so much more noticeable when it happens at the start of the season. I’m not saying the Dolphins are the 2011 Bills or the 2012 Cardinals, but the only way they win the division is if the Patriots don’t improve going forward.

Week 3 Studs

QB Ryan Tannehill

DE Dion Jordan

DE Olivier Vernon

CB Brent Grimes

Week 3 Duds

LE Derrick Shelby

LOLB Philip Wheeler

DT Randy Starks

FS Chris Clemons

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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

The Falcons have been destroyed by injuries thus far this season. Talented linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least 8 weeks after being put on short-term IR this week, taking away one of the few average or better starters the Falcons have on that side of the ball. Kroy Biermann, meanwhile, is out for the season with injury. He’s not the caliber of player that Weatherspoon is, but his absence will thin an already weak pass rush and force inexperienced youngsters into more action.

On top of that, they lost left tackle Sam Baker for at least this game. He’s really struggled thus far through 2 games, but his absence will force Lamar Holmes, who was already struggling on the right side, to play on the left side, while Jeremy Trueblood will start at right tackle. When we last saw Trueblood as a starter, he was one of the worst starting offensive tackles in the NFL, leading the NFL in quarterback hurries allowed in 2011. This offensive line was already struggling after losing both Tyson Clabo and Todd McClure this off-season, but Baker’s absence won’t make things better. Cameron Wake could dominate Lamar Holmes on the blindside.

They’ve also lost Steven Jackson for about 3 weeks with injury. In his absence, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling will handle the load, which could definitely be a concern. After Jackson went down last week, they managed just 36 yards on 13 carries. The organization has previously never seen either as a lead back type, starting the plodding Michael Turner ahead of them last season, which is not a positive sign for their ability to carry the load in Jackson’s absence.

Meanwhile, Roddy White is dealing with a high ankle injury that is seriously sapping his effectiveness. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez have had to step up in his absence and Jones had a huge game last week, catching 11 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. He probably won’t repeat that again, but he could still have a good game, even with a revitalized Brent Grimes likely matching up with him. Jones’ size advantage could be too much for White to overcome. Gonzalez could also have a big game, so I’m not too worried about the passing offense, but I have serious concerns about the offensive line, the defense, and the running game.

The fact that the Rams almost came back from what was once a 21-0 deficit to win last week, after all of the Falcons’ injuries, have to be concerning going forward. It’s especially concerning since Miami looks like a solid football team. They might not make the playoffs in the AFC, but they should at least win 8 games. It’s not going to be easy for the Falcons to come into Miami and win, especially considering their relative road struggles in the Matt Ryan era. We don’t have a lot of line value with the Dolphins as favorites, but I do like them to cover as short favorites. I’m not that confident in them though because they are making their home debut week 3, a situation teams are 20-40 ATS in since 1989. They could be exhausted from starting the season with two road games.

Miami Dolphins 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against spread: Miami -2

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 21

The Dolphins are 2-0 and could definitely be 3-0 in a week if they beat the banged up Falcons in Miami, but they’re more likely to be this year’s Arizona (4-0 in 2012) or Buffalo (3-0 in 2011) than a legitimate playoff contender. I don’t think they’re going to be as bad as either of those two teams ended up, but they’ve played a very easily schedule through two games, facing Cleveland and then an overrated Indianapolis team that can’t stop anyone and almost lost to Oakland the week before.

Week 2 Studs

LG Richie Incognito

RT Randy Starks

CB Brent Grimes

Week 2 Duds

LE Cameron Wake

RE Olivier Vernon

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Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0)

Last season, no team’s record was less indicative of their talent level than the Colts’ 11-5 record. For one, they had a ridiculous record in games decided by a touchdown or less, going 9-1 in those types of games. In fact, they had just 2 wins by a touchdown or more, and one came against the 2-win Jaguars. Meanwhile, 3 of their 5 losses came by more than 20 points and only one of those teams made the playoffs. They lost 35-9 to the Jets! Overall, they were -30 on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 7.2 wins. They made the playoffs because they were ridiculously good at pulling out close wins. That type of stuff evens out in the long run.

All of those close wins would be more impressive if they weren’t against teams like Cleveland, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Buffalo. They had an incredibly easy schedule, playing just 6 games against teams that went 8-8 or better. While they went 3-3 in those 6 games, the wins were by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses were by 20, 35, and 12. Their season essentially consisted of them barely beating bad teams and getting blown out by good teams.

They had just 1 win by more than a field goal against a team better than 6-10 and it was a week 17 game against the Texans. Once they got to the playoffs, they were just overmatched by the Baltimore Ravens, who beat them 24-9.When you combine their ridiculous record in close games and their weak schedule, the advanced metrics did not like them. They ranked 25th in DVOA and had the lowest DVOA by an 11-win team in DVOA’s 22 year history, dating back to 1991.

I thought the Colts would be improved over last season (in talent, not record). They spent a lot of money in free agency and while they didn’t get great value, it would be hard to argue they got worse this off-season. On top of that, they have Andrew Luck going into his 2nd year in the NFL in a system under Pep Hamilton that fits him a lot better than Bruce Arians’ downfield throw offense.

However, barely beating the Raiders, after winning 7 games by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams last season, doesn’t inspire any confidence. Andrew Luck looked good, completing 18 of 23 for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns, while rushing for another 39 and a score on 6 carries, and he could be on his way to a much improved 2nd season in the league, though it’s tough to tell against a defense like Oakland. However, both their defense and their offensive line looked just as bad as it was last season, despite all the money they spent.

Their opponent this week, the Dolphins, isn’t the type of pushover they are used to facing and barely beating. They’re not a great team by any stretch of the imagination and I don’t have them in the playoffs, but they are probably going to finish with 7-9 wins and I think they’re a better team than the Colts. This line suggests these two teams are equal, which I don’t think is the case. The public is also putting everything on the Colts, just like they did last week, because they seem to think that the Colts can rely on Andrew Luck pulling a win out of his ass every week. That’s not sustainable. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Colts lost a close one here, rather than winning a close one, and I’m fairly confident in Miami +3 this week.

Miami Dolphins 27 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

I’m sticking with my prediction that Mike Wallace doesn’t last beyond 3 years of his monster 5-year, 60 million dollar deal with the Dolphins. Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch. This off-season, he chased the cash and went to Miami and it’s predictable he could coast. He certainly did not look good in the Dolphins opener, catching just 1 pass for 15 yards. Yes, he was matched up with Joe Haden, but if you pay a receiver elite money, you expect him to be able to beat elite cornerbacks or at least hold his own. Fortunately for the Dolphins, Brian Hartline bailed out their passing game, but most teams don’t have as poor supporting defensive backs as the Browns.

Week 1 Studs

WR Brian Hartline

LE Cameron Wake

DT Paul Soliai

FS Reshad Jones

Week 1 Duds

RB Lamar Miller

RT Tyson Clabo

RE Olivier Vernon

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Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

The Dolphins were hailed by the media as the winners of the off-season, after all of the millions they spent, but like previous “winners” of the off-season, they should disappoint. The Buccaneers were the “winner” of last off-season, after shelling out big money for Carl Nicks, Vincent Jackson, and Eric Wright, but managed just 7 wins. The “Dream Team” Eagles came before them and they won just 8 games. Dan Snyder and the free spending Redskins came many a time before them, but largely produced no results.

The well run teams who sustain consistent success, the Packers, Patriots, Giants, 49ers, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Saints, etc. of the world, almost never make a big move on the first day of free agency. They instead focus on strong drafting, developing and re-signing their own guys, and letting the market come to them and filling holes with solid starters on cheaper deals on later days in free agency. They never make panic signings early in free agency.You can say it’s because they are already good or because they don’t have a lot of cap space, but none of those teams was built through big free agency signings. No consistently good team ever was.

I don’t know how much better of a team the Dolphins are as a result of this off-season. Mike Wallace was the big signing, signing this off-season’s biggest contract, getting 60 million over 5 years from the Dolphins. He’ll undoubtedly be an upgrade on the outside opposite Brian Hartline, but he’s overrated and not worth what he was paid. In 2010 and 2011, Wallace was one of the best receivers in the league, catching a combined 132 passes for 2450 yards and 18 touchdowns. However, Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch. They also added Dustin Keller and Brandon Gibson in the receiving corps, but the former is out for the year with a knee injury, while the latter is a pure depth caliber receiver with very limited slot experience.

On the defensive side of the ball, the two big signings they made were linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler. Ellerbe displaced Karlos Dansby at middle linebacker, while Wheeler displaced Kevin Burnett on the outside. They may be upgrades over what the veterans would have been this season, but both veterans actually had great seasons last year so it’s hard to see them being better than that. On top of that, they are both much less proven and the Dolphins are essentially paying for one year wonders. Prior to last season, Ellerbe had played 917 career snaps in 3 seasons and graded out below average in all 3 seasons. Wheeler, meanwhile, had topped out at 537 snaps in a season in 3 years as a part-time base package linebacker in Indianapolis, prior to last year’s breakout year.

On top of that, they had serious losses this off-season, losing running back Reggie Bush, cornerback Sean Smith, and most importantly left tackle Jake Long. They’ll attempt to replace those 3 with in house Lamar Miller, free agent Brent Grimes, and free agent Tyson Clabo respectively. I like Miller’s chances and Grimes could be good if they stay healthy, but, as good of a player as Clabo is, his presence moves Jonathan Martin to the blindside, where he was awful last season in 5 starts there. He wasn’t good at right tackle, but he was awful on the left side. That could make it tough for the Dolphins to set up the deep strikes to Wallace they would like.

I don’t think the Dolphins and Browns have serious talent disparities or anything. The Browns have a great offensive line, a strong and deep front 7, and the potential to be a very good running team depending on how Trent Richardson plays and how healthy he stays. Brandon Weeden is awful under center and the presence of shutdown cornerback Joe Haden could be wasted by the fact that they really lack cornerback depth and have plenty of other guys who can be picked on in the secondary. That being said, I do think the Browns will win here at home, against a pick ‘em line. I can’t bring myself to put anything on it though.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Cleveland Browns 16 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland PK

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins 2013 Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2013 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Dolphins, Uncategorized

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

8/18/13: Tannehill gets a small stock down with Dustin Keller out for the season.

Ryan Tannehill gets two new weapons to work with in Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller. Wallace may be overrated, but he’ll give them an upgrade on the outside, as Keller will at tight end. They have serious issues at left tackle, which could cancel some of that out, but I do expect Tannehill to improve on last year’s numbers, even if only because he has another year of experience and because the Dolphins will be passing more often. He’s just a QB2, but few QB2s have more upside.

Projection: 3600 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 200 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (220 pts standard, 258 pts 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

Daniel Thomas has shown very little in his two years as a pro, rushing for 906 yards on 256 carries (just 3.5 YPC) and the coaching staff that drafted him is gone. Miller is the clear starter at this point in the off-season and that does not figure to change. He’s a solid bet for 1000 yards as the new feature back in Miami and should have right around the 227 carries Reggie Bush had last season.

Projection: 230 carries for 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 25 catches for 180 receiving yards  (161 pts standard, 186 pts PPR)

WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season. Wallace was ProFootballFocus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch, catching 64 passes for 838 yards and 8 touchdowns. Wallace has demonstrated for the past year or so that he’d rather get paid above anything, holding out at his team’s expense and then chasing the money and going to Miami so it was probably smart of the Steelers not to lock him up long term (not like they had the cap space, but still). He could easily coast now that he’s been paid and he has a downgrade at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger. On top of that, the track record of receivers switching teams is dubious at best. Stay away and let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 60 catches for 850 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (121 pts standard, 181 pts PPR)

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

8/18/13: Hartline could see a few more underneath targets with Keller out for the year. He’s also shown much better chemistry with Tannehill than Mike Wallace. He’s more comfortable in the system and with a poor offensive line, Tannehill is going to have to settle for shorter throws more than he’d like.

Hartline caught 74 passes for 1083 yards in the 2009 4th round pick’s breakout 4th season, but he did benefit from being targeted on 118 throws, 23.4% of the Dolphins’ pass attempts. He also scored just once, compared to 3 interceptions when thrown to, and averaged just 3.2 yards after catch per catch and graded out 26th on ProFootballFocus in pass catching grade among wide receivers. He also had close to a quarter of his production in one 253 yard game week 4 and caught 2 or fewer passes on 5 separate occasions. He’s a solid secondary receiver, but nothing more. He could still lead the team in receiving, with Wallace serving more as a downfield decoy. He does have greater familiarity with the quarterback and the playbook.

Projection: 68 catches for 900 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (120 pts standard, 188 pts PPR)

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