Eagles

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (5-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)

I have thought the Eagles are underrated for several weeks and, despite their blowout win in Denver as 2.5-point underdogs last week, they remain underrated. They are just 4-6, but they have a +26 point differential that ranks 12th in the NFL, despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the league. All but one of the Eagles’ six losses have come to teams with a winning record, with the exception being a one-score loss to a 49ers team that has played significantly better than their record suggests. 

In schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, the Eagles rank 6th, 16th, and 22nd respectively and are even better than that suggests on offense, as they have played at a much higher level in recent weeks since getting their two offensive tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson back from extended early season absences. The Eagles’ four easiest games of the season (Lions, Falcons, Broncos, and Panthers) have all been victories, including three in blowout fashion, and the Saints fit much more with those teams than the teams that have beaten the Eagles, at least in the form the Saints are currently in.

The Saints are 5-4, but they are extremely short-handed on offense. Already without their top wide receiver Michael Thomas for the whole season, the Saints lost quarterback Jameis Winston for the season two weeks ago and now are without dominant feature back Alvin Kamara and their two stud offensive tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramcyzk, who have all gone down in the past week or so. The Saints are healthier on defense than they were earlier in the season and have one of the best units in the league on that side of the ball, but their offense will hold them back significantly until they get at least some of their key players back.

This line shifted from an even line on the early line last week to favoring the Eagles by 2.5 points at home this week, but that’s a pretty insignificant shift, given that about 9% of games are decided by 2 points or fewer. With all of the Saints’ injury problems and the Eagles’ blowout win last week, this line should have shifted more and it was already too low to begin with. As a result, we are getting great line value with the Eagles, who I have calculated as touchdown favorites. The Eagles are my top pick this week and they should cover fairly easily in a game in which they essentially just need to win to cover.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Denver Broncos (5-4)

The Eagles are just 3-6, but they also have a +9 point differential, despite facing one of the tougher schedules in the NFL. All but one of their six losses have come to teams with a winning record, with the exception being a 49ers team that has played significantly better than their record suggests. The three easiest games the Eagles have faced this season were all victories for the Eagles, including a pair of blowout wins over the Lions and Falcons. The Broncos aren’t quite as bad as those two teams, who are among the worst teams in the league, but they fit much more in line with the teams the Eagles have beaten than the teams the Eagles have lost to.

The Broncos won last week in Dallas in shocking fashion, but I think that has more to do with the Cowboys not showing up than anything the Broncos did. This is still a team that has won just two of their last six games since starting 3-0 against a very easy schedule, with the other being a one score win over a mediocre Washington team in a game in which Denver blocked a pair of field goals, and they still have a significant amount of key players no longer with the team since their hot start. 

In total, the Broncos are without stud left tackle Garret Bolles, above average starting right guard Graham Glasgow, talented edge defender duo Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, every down middle linebackers Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson, and impressive slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, all of whom started for the Broncos week one. Without those players, the Broncos still rank well below average in my roster rankings, about five points below average, even despite their upset win last week.

If anything the Broncos’ win last week just puts them in a bad spot this week, as it could be tough for the Broncos to maintain that same effort two weeks in a row, especially with a team with a losing record coming to town. Teams cover at just a 41.2% rate all-time after a win as double digit underdogs, as teams tend to be a combination of flat and/or overvalued by the public and odds makers in that situation. In this case, it seems like both, as we are getting a ton of value with the Eagles at +2.5. My calculated line has the Eagles favored by 4 points, even before taking into account that the Broncos could be flat. This is my favorite play of the week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)

The Eagles are just 3-5, but they have the best point differential of any 3-win team at +12. That’s largely because they blew out the Falcons and Lions, two of the worst teams in the league, but despite those two easy games, they have still faced one of the toughest schedules in the league. Their defense in particular has faced a tough schedule, as they have faced the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers, who rank 1st, 2nd, and 4th in offensive efficiency. Overall, their defense has held up pretty well considering their tough schedule and currently ranks 4th in defensive efficiency when adjusted for schedule. 

The Eagles’ offense got off to a slow start because of some offensive line injuries, but they have also improved on that side of the ball, now ranking 10th in offensive efficiency when adjusted for schedule. The Eagles’ efficiency ratings might be skewed by two blowout wins, but when you compare it to the Chargers, who rank 12th in offensive efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency, it’s hard to justify the Chargers being favored by a couple points on the road, especially since the Eagles also have a significant special team advantage over the Chargers, who once again have one of the worst special teams in the NFL. The Eagles also hold a point differential edge (+12 vs. -5). 

The Chargers may have a better record, but just one of their wins came by more than one score and dating back to last season, they have just three wins by multiple scores, with one coming against the 1-win Jaguars and one coming against the Chiefs backups in a meaningless week 17 game. This is a slightly improved team over a year ago, but they’re not as good as they looked during their 4-1 start, especially now that they are missing two of their top-3 cornerbacks. My roster rankings have the Eagles as the better team overall and, given that they are at home as well, we are getting a great value with them as 2-point underdogs. This is my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-5) at Detroit Lions (0-7)

Neither of these teams has an impressive record, but both teams have been better than their record. The Lions are the league’s last remaining winless team, but they have faced an above average schedule and are not getting blown out most weeks. On average, their losses have come by an average of 10.3 points per game, but even that makes it seem like they’ve been blown out more than they have been, as five of their seven losses have been kept within 10 points, while one of their two losses by more than 10 points came in a game in which the Lions led the Packers at halftime in Green Bay.

The Eagles, meanwhile, have faced arguably the league’s three best offensive teams, the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Buccaneers, who rank 2nd, 1st, and 4th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency. Overall, the Eagles have held their own defensively this season, ranking 8th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, even after a disappointing performance against the Raiders last week. The Eagles have not been as good on offense, ranking 20th in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, but they have gotten back a pair of key offensive lineman, left tackle Jordan Mailata and right tackle Lane Johnson, so they should have better offensive performances going forward.

Unfortunately, with both teams being a little underrated, we aren’t getting any line value with either side, as my calculated line is right at Philadelphia -3.5, where this line is in reality. I am taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes for one reason and that’s because the Lions could be flat after coming up short in Jared Goff’s revenge game against the Rams last week, but I’m not sure how much of a hangover effect there will be from that in this matchup, especially with the Lions having still not won a game and desperate to get into the win column (winless teams cover at a 58.0% rate all-time in week 6 or later).

Update: This line has dropped down to 3, which is significant because 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal. I still wouldn’t bet the Eagles, but I am upping the confidence on this a little bit.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)

The Eagles are just 2-4, but they’ve faced a tough schedule. Their losses have all come to above average teams, the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Buccaneers, with two of those games being decided by one score or less, while their wins have come against the Panthers and Falcons on the road by a combined 29 points. Those two teams are much more comparable to the Raiders, the Eagles’ opponents this week, than any of the teams the Eagles have lost to. 

The Eagles’ defense has especially faced a tough schedule, as the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Buccaneers are all in the top-3 in schedule adjusted first down rate, and the Eagles held up all things considered, holding those three teams well below their collective season average and leading the league by allowing 1.24 yards per play less than expected. They’re probably not going to be the best defense in the league by this metric all season, but this is a much better defense than they’ve been given credit for if you take into account who they’ve played.

The Eagles’ offense has not been nearly as good, ranking 27th in schedule adjusted first down rate, but their offensive line is a lot healthier now than it’s been, getting left tackle Jordan Mailata back from a 2-game absence in week 5 and now getting right tackle Lane Johnson back from a 3-game absence this week, the first time the Eagles have had their two tackles together since week 2. The Eagles are still missing their starting guards Brandon Brooks and Isaac Seumalo, but they’ve gotten good play from their replacements and should overall have a strong offensive line with Johnson returning this week. 

In their current state, I have them 2.5 points better than the Raiders, suggesting this line should be about even, with the Raiders getting about 2.5 points for homefield advantage. The Raiders have a better record at 4-2, but their victories haven’t been all that impressive, with none coming by more than 10 points and two coming in overtime, despite an underwhelming strength of victory that includes a mediocre Steelers team, a terrible Dolphins team, a banged up Broncos team, and a Ravens team that was travelling cross country for a night game in the Raiders home opener. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders’ two losses have each come by double digits, including a home loss to an underwhelming Bears team and the Chargers’ only multi-score win of the season. In hindsight I wish I had picked the Browns on Thursday Night Football as my Pick of the Week because I liked that matchup more than anything this weekend, but I didn’t know that at the time, so I am taking this as my Pick of the Week. The Eagles have a good chance to pull this straight up upset and even if they don’t, we get protection from a field goal loss.

Update: I am glad I locked this in because Darren Waller might not play and this line dropped to 2. I would still like the Eagles at a lot at +2, assuming Waller doesn’t play, but this is an afternoon game, so the line and the injury report need to be monitored before locking in a bet if you didn’t get this at +3.

Philadelphia Eagles 19 Las Vegas Raiders 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)

The Buccaneers are obviously one of the best teams in the league, but they are dealing with more injuries than they were a year ago, when they were one of the healthiest teams in the league. In total, they are missing three week one starters from their secondary, top tight end Rob Gronkowski, and now the loss of one of the top linebackers in the league, Lavonte David, who will miss his first game of the season this week. The Buccaneers are coming off of a blowout win over the Dolphins, but the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league right now and could be 0-5, while the Buccaneers’ previous two games were a convincing road loss against the Rams and a near defeat against a middling Patriots team in New England.

Despite that, they are favored by a touchdown on the road against an Eagles team that has been better than most think this season. They are just 2-3, but their losses are all against above average teams in the 49ers, Chiefs, and Cowboys, while their two wins have come in blowout fashion against a below average Falcons team and a close win against a decent Panthers team.

My roster rankings have them as a middling team overall, especially with the re-addition of left tackle Jordan Mailata, who returned last week from a two-game absence, unsurprisingly their two least competitive games of the season (Philadelphia and Kansas City). Prior to his absence, the Eagles played the 49ers close and last week he returned for their victory over the Panthers.

They are still missing their top edge defender Brandon Graham, as well as a trio of starting offensive linemen, Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks, and Isaac Seumalo, but they have better depth upfront than a year ago and are not a bad offensive line now with Mailata back. They are also getting good play from young quarterback Jalen Hurts and this young receiving corps, while also playing solid overall defense as well. My calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by just 3.5 points, so there is value with Philadelphia +7. This is worth a play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +7

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-1)

The Panthers suffered their first loss of the season last week, but their record still shows them to be better than they’ve played, as their wins have come against the Texans and Jets, two of the worst teams in the league, and the very inconsistent Saints, while their loss came in a game against the Cowboys that wasn’t close and in which the Panthers lost the first down rate and yards per play battle by significant amounts (-7.09% and -1.99, respectively). They have a decent roster, but they are probably not a playoff caliber team, especially with the injured players they are currently missing, including top cornerback Jaycee Horn, stud feature back Christian McCaffrey, and every down linebacker Shaq Thompson.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like anyone else is buying the Panthers either, as they are favored by just a field goal at home against the Eagles, who are also missing several key players with injury. Most notably they are missing their top edge defender Brandon Graham, as well as a trio of starting offensive linemen, Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks, and Isaac Seumalo. However, the Eagles have better depth upfront than a year ago and are not a bad offensive line now that left tackle Jordan Mailata has returned and they are getting good play from young quarterback Jalen Hurts and this young receiving corps, while also playing solid overall defense as well. I have this line calculated as Carolina -1, so we’re getting some line value with the Eagles, but not quite enough for them to be worth betting.

Carolina Panthers 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)

The Chiefs have started the season 1-2, matching last season’s regular season loss total, but I am not too concerned about them going forward. They have faced a relatively tough schedule overall and both of their losses could have easily been wins, including a game last week against the Chargers in which they won the first down rate battle by 7.92%, but lost by six because of a -4 turnover margin, which is an relatively non-predictive metric and highly uncharacteristic for this team. Their offense still leads the league in first down rate, which is the most predictive offensive metric and offense is the more predictive side of the ball in general.

All of that being said, I still feel like the Chiefs are being overvalued. Now dating back to week 9 of last season, the Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in 11 straight regular season games and, including playoffs, they’ve covered just once in their past 14 games. This spread has the Chiefs favored by a touchdown, but their average margin of victory in their past 10 wins is just 5 points per game with just one win by more than 6 points. The odds makers know they can boost the spread on the Chiefs and still get bettors willing to take them and it doesn’t seem like that has stopped.

As good as Patrick Mahomes and his playmakers are, their new look offensive line hasn’t been as much of an upgrade as expected and their defense looks like a below average unit, so the Chiefs could easily continue playing a lot of close games. I’m not confident enough in the Eagles to bet on them, as they are missing their top edge rusher Brandon Graham and a trio of starting offensive linemen in left tackle Jordan Mailata, right guard Brandon Brooks, and left guard Isaac Seumalo with injury,, all of whom were badly missed in last week’s blowout loss to the Cowboys, but my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by just 6 points, so we’re at least getting some line value with the Eagles. This is a low confidence pick, but I would expect a relatively close game.

Update: The Eagles surprisingly will also be without right tackle Lane Johnson due to a personal matter, meaning they will be without four of their five week one starters on the offensive line. However, the Chiefs will be without top edge rusher Frank Clark and a pair of cornerbacks, Charvarius Ward and Rashad Fenton, so I am not changing anything on this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Philadelphia Eagles 24

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +7

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

The Cowboys have had a tough start to their season, going on the road to the Buccaneers and Chargers. The Cowboys split those games to go 1-1 and now they return home to be favored by 3.5 points over the Eagles, but this could be a let down spot for them, as teams tend to struggle in week 3 home openers, covering at just a 33.3% rate in a week 3 home opener over the past thirty seasons. I’m not entirely sure why that is, but it does make some sense that teams would be tired after back-to-back home games to start the season and then relax a little in their home opener, leading to relative struggles. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting enough line value with the Eagles to bet them confidently. They’ve gotten off to a surprisingly strong start, but they’ve lost a trio of key players in the past week, with left tackle Jordan Mailata, right guard Brandon Brooks, and defensive end Brandon Graham all being placed on injured reserve. My calculated line has the Cowboys favored by 5.5 points given all of the Eagles injuries, so, while I am still taking the Eagles, this is a no confidence pick at +3.5.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3.5

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)

The Eagles are a tough team to project right now. Their supporting cast isn’t bad, as their offensive line is much healthier than a year ago, their receiving corps are better, and their secondary has added key players like Anthony Harris and Steven Nelson, but quarterback Jalen Hurts is still a big question mark. Hurts struggled mightily as a passer in his limited action as a starter as a rookie last season, but was one of the best passers in the league in week one, albeit against a Falcons defense that could be the worst in the league. If he can be a capable starting quarterback, with a combination of his rushing ability and improved passing ability, the Eagles could be a decent team this season, in which case they probably shouldn’t be 3-point underdogs this week.

The 49ers were one of my top teams in the league going into week one and looked dominant against a bad Lions team before taking their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and somehow nearly blowly a 28-point lead. I still think they are one of the better teams in the league, but a big reason I expected them to improve was they would likely have significantly better health than a year ago, which hasn’t quite gone as planned.

They were significantly better than their 6-10 record suggested last season even with all their injuries and they are nowhere near as banged up now as they were a year ago, but they lost starting running back Raheem Mostert for the season and their defense will be without at least four expected starters, cornerbacks Jason Verrett and Emmanuel Moseley, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, while fellow starting defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw barely practiced this week and could be in line to miss his second straight game, after being labelled questionable. It could be a tough ask for them to come to Philadelphia and win by more than a touchdown. I’m going to take the Eagles this week, but it’s hard to be confident because Jalen Hurts’ week one performance could be mostly the result of an awful Falcons defense.

San Francisco 49ers 19 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: None