Falcons

Atlanta Falcons 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Falcons, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive End

Kroy Biermann, Malliciah Goodman, and Osi Umenyiora were their primary edge rushers last season and only Umenyiora graded out above average on Pro Football Focus and he did so on just 347 snaps. Now he’s a free agent going into his age 34 season. Biermann is a free agent as well and Goodman, the only one under contract, was their worst last season, grading out 54th out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. New Head Coach Dan Quinn has coached guys up before, but he’s not a miracle worker. Tyson Jackson will fit the Red Bryant run stopping defensive end role well in their new Seattle style front, but they need to add at least one, if not two new edge rushers this off-season because they don’t have anyone who can get to the passer from the outside. The Falcons reportedly love Shane Ray, who could be available 8th overall. He’d fit in well.

Tight End

The Falcons used two tight ends less frequently than any other team in the league last year. #2 tight end Bear Pascoe played on just 148 snaps. Levine Toilolo started 16 games and played 958 snaps, but he was one of the worst tight ends in the NFL who played a significant amount of time. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked tight end, catching 31 passes for 238 yards and 2 touchdowns on 457 routes run and struggling as a run blocker. The 2013 4th round pick is a #2 tight end at best. They need a starting caliber tight end who can give them a big receiving threat over the middle. This could be somewhere they look in round 2.

Running Back

Steven Jackson is about done. He’s going into his age 32 season with 2743 career carries. He had a great career, but those are serious red flags, as is the fact that he’s averaged just 3.60 YPC (1250 yards on 347 carries) in 2 seasons in Atlanta. Owed a non-guaranteed 3.75 million in 2015, I don’t expect the Falcons to bring him back and he might just opt to retire. They drafted Devonta Freeman in the 4th round in 2014, but he didn’t show much as a rookie, rushing for 248 yards on 65 carries (3.82 YPC). Jacquizz Rodgers was third on the team in carries, but he’s a free agent with a 3.66 career average. There’s not really a starting caliber back here so this is somewhere else they could target on day 2.

Middle Linebacker

The old regime really liked Paul Worrilow, but it’s unclear what the new regime will think of him. After all, he went undrafted in 2013 and has largely struggled on the field over the past 2 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 45th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in 2013 and in 2014 he was even worse, grading out 2nd worst at his position, thanks in large part to 21 missed tackles, tied for 2nd most in the NFL regardless of position. They could easily bring in some competition for him this off-season.

Center

The Falcons signed Joe Hawley to a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal last off-season to be their center of the future, but he played just 4 games before tearing his ACL and he graded out below average in the limited action he did see. Prior to 2014, he was a decent, but unspectacular player, grading out below average in 2011 and above average in 2013, while seeing little action in 2010 and 2013. He’s owed a non-guaranteed 3 million in 2015 and might not be brought back. Even if he is brought back for his contract year, they need competition for him because James Stone was horrible in his absence. Stone was Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked center out of 41 eligible.

Cornerback

The Falcons have a keeper in Desmond Trufant, who has graded out 7th and 6th in 2013 and 2014 respectively since the Falcons drafted him in the first round in 2013. He’s been one of the few bright spots for this team over the past 2 seasons. However, their depth after him is pretty shaky. Robert McClain, Robert Alford, and Josh Wilson were 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the team in snaps played at cornerback and all 3 graded out below average. McClain and Wilson are free agents anyway. Alford was a 2013 2nd round pick so he still has some potential, but he’s struggled so far in the NFL and even if he develops into a starter, they need depth behind him.

Key Free Agents

S Dwight Lowery

Dwight Lowery has always been a solid starting safety when healthy. The Falcons signed Lowery cheap last off-season and there was a reason he was available so cheap, even though he graded out above average in every season from 2008-2012, including 18th among safeties in 2012. Lowery missed 20 games in 2012-2013 combined and he hadn’t played all 16 games since his rookie year in 2008. Lowery proved to be a smart signing by the Falcons, as he graded out above average again and, more important, made all 16 starts. He’s worth a multi-year deal on the open market, but his injury history can’t be ignored.

DE Kroy Biermann

Biermann, a 2008 5th round pick, started his career well, grading out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, including Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2009 and their 19th ranked in 2010. However, he graded out 57th out of 67 eligible in 2011, below average again in 2012, was limited to 2 games by a torn Achilles in 2013, and then graded out below average again in 2014. Now Biermann heads into free agency, going into his age 30 season. He’s still capable of a significant role, but he’s an unspectacular player and won’t draw a significant deal on the open market.

DT Corey Peters

Peters tore his Achilles in 2013 at the worst possible time, in a meaningless week 16 game, just before he was set to hit free agency. Peters was forced to settle for a cheap one year deal back in Atlanta in an attempt to rehab his value and he did a decent job. He played 15 games (except week 1 when he was kept out for precautionary reasons) and graded out about average on 535 snaps. Other than that Achilles tear, he doesn’t have a significant injury history, as he’s missed just 9 games in 5 seasons combined since the Falcons drafted him in the 3rd round in 2010. Peters struggled in the first 3 seasons of his career, grading out below average in all 3 seasons, including a 2010 season in which he graded out 62nd out of 76 eligible and a 2012 season in which he graded out 83rd out of 85 eligible, but he’s graded out right about average in each of the last 2 seasons. Only going into his age 27 season, he could get a multi-year deal this off-season.

CB Josh Wilson

It’s hard to believe that Josh Wilson was Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked cornerback in 2010. Wilson has never done anything like that other than that season, but he did grade out above average in each of the first 6 seasons of his career, from 2007-2012. However, he’s graded out below average in each of the last 2 seasons and is arguably coming off of the worst season of his career in 2014, as he played just 458 snaps, 4th among Falcon cornerbacks. Going into his age 30 season, he’s purely a depth cornerback on the open market, but he should draw interest.

OLB Sean Weatherspoon

It’s been a steep drop off for Weatherspoon since he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2011 after being drafted in the 1st round in 2010. He’s played in just 20 of 48 games combined over the past 3 seasons, grading out below average in 2012 and 2013 and missing all of 2014 with a torn Achilles. 2011 remains the only season in his career that he’s played all 16 games and the only season in his career that he graded out above average as he missed 5 games as a rookie and graded out below average when on the field. He’s missed 33 games in 5 seasons. Now going into free agency, he’ll have to settle for a one-year prove it deal.

DE Osi Umenyiora

Umenyiora graded out above average last season, but on only 347 snaps and now he heads into free agency going into his age 34 season. He graded out below average in both 2012 and 2013 and the last time he played more than 500 snaps in a season and graded out above average was 2010. He’s close to the end of the line, but he might have one more season left in him as a reserve on a one-year minimum deal.

CB Robert McClain

Robert McClain had a breakout year in 2012, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked cornerback, but he proved to be a one year wonder (the 2010 7th round pick played a combined 134 snaps in 2010-2011). He graded out below average in both 2013 and 2014, with his worst season coming in 2014, when he graded out 90th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks. He won’t draw much interest on the open market.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers

Rodgers has seen a decent amount of action in 4 years with the Falcons since they drafted him in the 5th round in 2011, carrying the ball 305 times, but that’s more out of need than anything and he’s averaged just 3.66 yards per carry. He was a young rookie so he’s only going into his age 25 season and he provides value as a pass catcher, catching 155 passes in 63 career games in 4 seasons, but he’s nothing more than a backup at best.

OT Gabe Carimi

Carimi was a massive bust as a 2011 1st round pick. He played just 2 games as a rookie thanks to a massive knee injury and was never the same. He was Pro Football Focus’ 72nd ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible in 2012, leading to the Bears letting him go for a 6th rounder after just 2 seasons. In Tampa Bay in 2013, he played just 218 snaps at left and right guard and was promptly released after the season. Last year in Atlanta, he played left tackle, left guard, right guard, and right tackle and generally struggled, particularly at tackle, where he was 59th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles on 425 snaps. Heading to free agency again, Carimi is probably going to be limited to minimum deals.

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB Steven Jackson

Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. The Falcons probably should have paid attention to that stat before giving Steven Jackson a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal 2 off-seasons ago, coming off a 1000+ yard year with the Rams, but going into his age 30 with 2396 career carries. Jackson has rushed for 1250 yards on 347 carries (3.60 YPC) in 2 seasons with the Falcons and is fully expected to be released this off-season, owed a non-guaranteed 3.75 million in 2015. He’ll have a hard time finding takers on the open market and might just opt to retire. 16th all-time in rushing yards, only three players all-time have more rushing yards than him and aren’t in the Hall of Fame. Two of those three aren’t Hall eligible yet, while the 3rd (Jerome Bettis) is expected to be enshrined very soon, possibly this year.

C Joe Hawley

The Falcons re-signed Joe Hawley to a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal last off-season. Hawley, 2010 4th round pick, played 40 snaps in 2010 and 2012 combined, but he played 876 snaps in 2011 and 553 snaps in 2013, splitting time at right guard and center in both seasons. In 2011, he struggled mightily at center, grading out as Pro Football Focus 6th worst center despite playing just 230 snaps there, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out worse. He then moved to right guard, where he graded out slightly above average. In 2013, he also graded out below average at center and among above at right guard. In 2014, he graded out slightly below average at center through 4 games before tearing his ACL. Owed a non-guaranteed 3 million in 2015, there’s a chance the Falcons move on from him.

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9)

This line is off as it suggests the Falcons are the better of these two teams, considering they are favored by 4. Meanwhile, rate of moving the chains suggests the Panthers are the better team, as they rank 15th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73.82% rate, as opposed to 73.29% for their opponents, a differential of 0.53%. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.63% rate, as opposed to 76.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.37%.

The Panthers have been especially good over the past 4 weeks since the bye, as they’ve moved the chains at a 78.72% rate, as opposed to 62.77% for their opponents, a differential of 15.96%. Ron Rivera, 2013 Coach of the Year, has made all the right adjustments and has this team looking like the 2013 version, despite all of the personnel turnover. The 2013 version won 12 games, the NFC South, and got secured a first round bye, while ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Panthers’ only loss over the past 4 games came on the road in Minnesota, where they surrendered two fluky punt return touchdowns. Sure, it’s just a 4 game stretch and they’ve played a weak schedule, but the Falcons aren’t exactly a quality opponent so that could carry over into this one.

That being said, the Falcons have definitely resembled a quality opponent this season at home for the most part, moving the chains at a 77.13% rate, as opposed to 75.45% for their opponents, a differential of 1.68%. That’s as opposed to 72.40% for their offense on the road and 76.45% for opponent’s offenses, a differential of -4.05%.  This relative home dominance is nothing new for them as they are 32-22-1 ATS at home (39-16 straight up) since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy.

Also, fun fact, almost every season a team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. Seattle, Denver, and New England all are going back, which means Carolina would have to lose this game and miss the playoffs for that to continue. Meanwhile, almost every season a team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs and Atlanta is really the only one still in the running that could do so (Houston technically isn’t eliminated, but they need a lot of help). It’s not a hard and fast rule, but it’s something I keep in mind when I do my season previews and something to keep in mind here. Of course, Carolina doesn’t need to win to cover as 4 point underdogs here. I’m taking the red hot Panthers, but I’m not that confident.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Carolina Panthers 30

Pick against the spread: Carolina +4

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (6-8)

The Saints recently won 20 straight home games with Sean Payton and Drew Brees, covering in almost all of them (18-1-1 ATS), but they’ve since lost 4 straight games at home, all as favorites. On the season, they are just 2-5 ATS at home and oddly enough they are 4-3 ATS on the road. The Saints certainly aren’t the auto-bet at home they used to be, but it’s worth mentioning how much of an advantage they’ve had in the Superdome in recent years.

The Falcons, meanwhile, typically struggle on the road, especially over the past 2 seasons, going 4-8 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last year. This season, they move the chains at a 72.52% rate, as opposed to 76.95% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -4.43%. The Falcons are 27-15 ATS off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, since 2008, but just 2-4 ATS on the road off of a loss in the last two seasons.

The Saints are better than their record suggests, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 79.60% rate, as opposed to 77.33% for their opponents, a differential of 2.27%. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.83% rate, as opposed to 76.23% for their opponents, a differential of -1.40%. However, this line already takes into account that the Saints are better than their record as it’s at 6.5 right now.

Both of these teams are in good spots with easy games on deck, New Orleans going to Tampa Bay and Atlanta hosting the Panthers, meaning that both teams should be able to focus completely on this must win game. Divisional home favorites (like the Saints) are 37-25 ATS before being divisional road favorites since 2002, while divisional road underdogs (like the Falcons) are 60-43 ATS before being divisional home favorites. However, the Saints’ game next week is the easier of the two, which puts them in the better spot. The early line has them favored by 4.5 in Tampa Bay. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, including 60-40 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. I’m taking the Saints, but I’m not confident.

New Orleans Saints 30 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: None

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Falcons, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (5-8)

The Packers lost last week in Green Bay, but now they return home. The Falcons are 32-21-1 ATS at home (39-15 straight up) since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 8-3 ATS as home underdogs, as they are here. The fact that they lost last week actually makes it more likely that they cover this week as they’re very good off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 27-14 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 18-9 ATS at home and 6-1 ATS as home underdogs.

The Steelers, meanwhile, have never been good in these types of games. They are 7-20 ATS since 2007 (when Mike Tomlin took over) as non-divisional road favorites. They always get caught off guard by these types of opponents and I definitely expect that to happen again here with the Steelers sandwiched in between a big upset win in Cincinnati and another very important game with the Chiefs next week that could be a playoff tiebreaker.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on Atlanta. For one, Julio Jones is going to be at the very best less than 100% this week with a hip problem, which is an issue, considering how big of a part of their offense he is. Two, the Steelers are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, road favorites off of a road win as underdogs are just 32-28 ATS since 2002, so it’s not that powerful for a trend. The Falcons should be the right side, especially with the public on Pittsburgh.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Packers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)

The Packers have been outstanding at home this season, moving the chains at an 80.51% rate, as opposed to 70.62% for their opponents, a differential of 9.89%. This home dominance is nothing new for them. Aaron Rodgers is 26-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 32-4 straight up, with an absurd +548 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.22 points per game. The Falcons, meanwhile, typically struggle on the road, especially over the past 2 seasons, going 3-8 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last year. This season, they move the chains at a 69.89% rate, as opposed to 75.12% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -5.23%.

However, this line largely takes all both of those things into account as it’s very high at 12.5. I still have a decent amount of confidence in the Packers to come away with a blowout victory here though. I wish the line was closer to 10, but we’re still getting value with the Packers here. On top of the Packers’ home dominance and the Falcons’ road struggles, the Packers are also in a great spot as they don’t have any upcoming distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 57-34 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, and 23-8 ATS before being 7+ point favorites (the early line is Green Bay -6.5). The Packers should be the right side here.

Green Bay Packers 38 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7)

The Falcons lost at home last week, but that hasn’t been the norm for them at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 31-21-1 ATS at home (38-15 straight up) since those two came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 7-3 ATS as home underdogs, as they are here. The fact that they lost last week actually makes it more likely that they cover this week as they’re very good off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 26-14 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 17-9 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS as home underdogs.

We’re also getting line value with the Falcons as field goal underdogs here, even before we get into how good they’ve been at home. The Cardinals are not as good as their 9-2 record, moving the chains at a 72.14% rate, as opposed to 69.33% for their opponents, a differential of 2.81% that ranks just 11th. They’ve been way too reliant on a +12 turnover margin this season, powered by a 65.00% rate of recovering fumbles (2nd in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +3 return touchdown margin. Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks 20th, moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 75.27% for their opponents, a differential of 1.71%.

Arizona is also really missing Carson Palmer, their starting quarterback who is out for the season with a torn ACL.  Palmer completed 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while backup Drew Stanton has completed 53.6% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. They’ve moved the chains at a 69.47% rate in games that Drew Stanton started and a 73.96% rate in games started by Carson Palmer. They have no business being field goal favorites. They were exposed last week in Seattle and I think they will continue to be exposed this week in Arizona. They’ll be looking to get an easy win off of a very disappointing loss and I think they could overlook an Atlanta team that, as bad as their record is, is very tough at home generally.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Falcons is because they have to go to Green Bay next week. Teams are 99-126 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, which the Falcons undoubtedly will be next week. Still, there’s enough stuff here for me to feel confident grabbing the field goal with the Falcons, especially with the public all over Arizona.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Falcons, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

This is probably the game I have a least feel for this week. On one hand, the Browns are a little bit better than the Falcons and this line at 3 suggests that these two teams are even with homefield advantage. The Browns rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.40% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for their opponents, a differential of 0.29%. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 73.19% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.81%. However, this isn’t normal homefield advantage as Matt Ryan is 31-20 ATS at home in his career dating back to 2008. I’m taking the Falcons, but I’m not confident at all.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-6-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

The Panthers are 3-6-1, but they’re even worse than their record suggests. Five of their 6 losses have come by 18 points or more (Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) and their -83 point differential is worse than every team’s but 5 (Oakland, Tampa Bay, NY Jets, Jacksonville, St. Louis). They rank 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.20% rate, as opposed to 77.16% for their opponents, a differential of -4.96%.

Last week, they were blown out by the score of 45-21 in Philadelphia. That was in embarrassing fashion on national television on Monday Night and now they have to turn around and play another game 5 days later. They won’t have time to bounce back and teams coming off blowout losses on MNF are horrible at covering the spread the following week, as teams are 18-27 ATS off of a MNF loss of 21+ or more since 2002, including 6-14 ATS as favorites. The line moved from 3 to 2 (and 1.5 in some places) from last week, which is a significant line movement, but that was deservedly so.

The Falcons aren’t great either, moving the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.64% that ranks 20th in the NFL, but the Panthers have no business being favored here, even at home. The Panthers aren’t favored by a ton (2 points), but that actually puts them in a bad spot. Teams are 36-59 ATS as home favorites of 1 to 5.5 going into a bye since 2002. Between that and last week’s blowout loss on Monday Night, the Panthers are in a horrible spot to cover the spread this week, even before you take into account that we’re getting line value with the Falcons as underdogs here.

The Falcons, conversely, are in a great spot as they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. I like the Falcons a good amount here.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Carolina Panthers 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)

The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It makes sense as road favorites tend to be significantly superior teams and it’s logical that significantly superior teams would be able to play really well off of a bye. The Falcons haven’t played well at all this season, but they’re still significantly better than the lowly Buccaneers. The Falcons rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.02% rate, as opposed to 75.76% for their opponents, a differential of -1.74%, while the Buccaneers rank 30th, moving the chains at a 69.74% rate, as opposed to 76.51% for their opponents, a differential of -6.78%. The Buccaneers will be even worse this week with Alterraun Verner out with injury.

The issue here is that the Falcons are only 2.5 point favorites. When you break down those aforementioned trends even more, you see that teams are 40-12 ATS off of a bye as road favorites of 3 or more and just 10-9 ATS as favorites of less than 3, including 21-4 ATS and 3-2 ATS respectively in divisional matchups. However, the logic still does hold that the Falcons would be better prepared for this game as a significantly better team on the road off a bye. The Falcons are even 3 point favorites in some places. I don’t think that trend can be completely discounted just because the Falcons aren’t 3 point favorites everywhere.

On top of that, they generally do well off a loss in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, going 24-13 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams on long losing streaks like the Falcons are on right now do well off a bye, as teams on 5+ game losing streaks are 22-9 ATS off a bye. The bye tends to give teams like that a chance to collect themselves and come back stronger after the bye. I like the Falcons’ bounce back chances here against a terrible Tampa Bay team. Tampa Bay has been especially bad at home over the past few years, going 13-30 ATS at home since 2009.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons in London: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Falcons, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-5) in London

This is technically a home game for the Falcons, but it’s a neutral site game in London. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions as either the Lions are being overrated or the Falcons are being underrated. The Lions rank 7th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.19% rate, while their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 66.34% rate, best in the NFL. That gives them a differential of 3.85%. On the other side of the coin, the Falcons rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 72.77% rate, as opposed to 75.54% for their opponents, a differential of -2.77%. This line should be closer to 6.5 instead of 3.5. That’s significant line value.

Detroit is also in the better spot here I think as they are favorites and actually in playoff contention. It’s a small sample size, but favorites are 6-3 ATS in London games, including 6-1 ATS in their last 7. It makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game. I like the Lions’ chances of winning by at least a touchdown.

Detroit Lions 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Confidence: Medium

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3.5

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