Falcons

Atlanta Falcons: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 2 (-1)

Record: 6-0

I know what you’re thinking. Atlanta is the last undefeated team in the NFL. Why are they #3? Well, they simply haven’t been impressive enough. They haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record. They’ve won their last 3 games by a touchdown or fewer against teams that aren’t very good, with the exception of maybe Washington. If Carolina wasn’t so poor in late game situations, and Robert Griffin didn’t get hurt, and Billy Cundiff didn’t exist, and Carson Palmer didn’t threw that ridiculous pick 6, they’d be 3-3 right now. I’m not saying they deserve to be a 3-3 team, but they’ve hardly been impressive recently.

Some say they “know how to win.” I say that’s bullshit. Everyone knows how to know. It’s all about execution and in the last 3 weeks, the Falcons have executed just well enough to barely beat 3 teams that probably won’t make the playoffs. Maybe they’re better than Houston, who, spoiler alert, is my #2 team, but I needed one team from each conference in the top-2 and I think there’s one team better than Atlanta in the NFC.

Studs

RE John Abraham: 3 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 33 yards (14 yards after contact) on 11 carries, caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 1 attempt

RG Garret Reynolds: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards

RT Tyson Clabo: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

FS Thomas DeCoud: Allowed 2 catches for 32 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 4 missed tackles

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Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Falcons, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-0)

Matt Ryan is 27-5 in his career at home, including 22-10 ATS and the Falcons are 5-0. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 1-3, coming off a blowout loss to the Broncos (before the bye) and have to travel to Atlanta and play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team. The Raiders, in particular, are 6-14 ATS in this situation in their since 2003. The Falcons should easily be able to cover the 9 point spread right?

Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are pounding the Falcons this week. I like to fade the public as much as I can anyway, but we’re also getting some line value with the Raiders. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .6. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field advantage, which would get us to a line of Atlanta -7, meaning we have 2 points of line value with the Raiders.

Why is this? Are the Raiders underrated. I don’t think so. A preseason overrated pick of mine, the Raiders have lived up to the billing and are 27th in terms of yards per play. Instead, it’s the Falcons who appear to be overrated. Despite their 5-0 record, they have a negative yards per play differential. That might sound ridiculous, until you consider that this team could easily be 3-2 if it wasn’t for Carolina’s horrendous end game management, Billy Cundiff’s existence, and Robert Griffin’s injury. A 3-2 with a negative yards per play differential isn’t uncommon. They’ve needed a little bit of luck to stay undefeated.

On top of that, they’ve been very reliant on the turnover, part of the reason why their yards per play differential doesn’t match up with their points differential and their record. The Falcons lead the league with a +10 turnover differential. However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to use yards to help me identify the underrated and overrated teams.

That being said, Atlanta is the pick here. I think the public has it right. Atlanta is a 9 point favorite going into a bye. 7+ favorites going into a bye are 42-17 ATS since 2002 in the regular season. Teams tend to be extra focused going into a bye and crush teams they’re supposed to crush. It’s just not a big play. Atlanta is also my survivor pick of the week on a week where there aren’t a lot of good choices. Teams in that aforementioned situation are a whopping 56-3 straight up. Atlanta isn’t losing here.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: OAK 7 ATL 14

Final update: No change.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Oakland Raiders 20 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF)

Pick against spread: Atlanta -9 (-110) 2 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 5-0

The Falcons have had back-to-back close calls and could be 3-2 right now if the Panthers could manage a late game and if Robert Griffin hadn’t gotten hurt and Billy Cundiff hadn’t sucked. Most good teams do catch breaks like that, but this team also has a negative yards per play differential, as a result of their reliance on winning the turnover battle. They have the league’s best turnover differential at +10, but no matter what your previous game’s turnover differential, the average turnover differential on a week to week basis is roughly +0.0. They’re probably the best team in the NFC right now, but I’m not 100% sold on them

Studs

WR Julio Jones: Caught 10 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 3.3 YAC per catch

TE Tony Gonzalez: Caught 13 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 3.8 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

LT Sam Baker: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

RT Tyson Clabo: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

RE John Abraham: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, no tackles

DT Jonathan Babineaux: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 2 catches for 24 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Asante Samuel: Allowed 2 catches for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop

FS Thomas DeCoud: Was not thrown on, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon: Allowed 2 catches for 15 yards on 2 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

Duds

C Todd McClure: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 8 attempts

SS William Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 77 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

MLB Akeem Dent: Allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: Allowed 4 catches for 59 yards on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Atlanta Falcons Week 5 Injury Report

stevenlourie Falcons, News

Probable

DT Jonathan Babineaux (Groin)

WR Julio Jones (Hand)

OLB Stephen Nicholas (Thigh)

CB Christopher Owens (Head)

RB Antone Smith (Hamstring)

Questionable, likely to play

N/A

Questionable, game time decision

C Todd McClure (Pectoral)

S William Moore (Hip)

RB Lousaka Polite (Hamstring)

Doubtful/Out

TE Michael Palmer (Shoulder)

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Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Commanders, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

There’s a reason I saved this one for last. I don’t really have much of a clue. The line is -3 in favor of Atlanta. These two teams have a difference in yards per play differential of .9. Divide that by .15 and add 3 points for Washington for home field advantage and you get that the real line should be…-3 in favor of Atlanta. Meanwhile, there aren’t any prominent trends at play here.

There is one trend that used to be prominent at play here. Since 1989, home dogs coming off a road win are 101-50 ATS against a team coming off a home win. However, since 2002, that trend is just 42-33, meaning from 1989 to 2002, teams in this situation were a ridiculous 59-18, but since then, it’s kind of died down so I don’t really know if that means Washington is going to win.

The public really likes Atlanta, but this line is really small and I don’t know if I’m comfortable picking Washington to win here. This is still a horrible defensive team, as much as they can put points on the board. Meanwhile, the sharps are completely split on this one. I’m going with the home team just because I think last week dealt them a wake up call, their near loss at home to Carolina, and it’s not like this team to sleepwalk through 2 games in a row.

Under Mike Smith, their a whopping 17-3 ATS off a loss and though they did though they didn’t lose last week, it might still have the same effect on this team. For the record, they’re 5-4 ATS off a close win under Mike Smith. I think they’ll win, improve to 5-0, and cover the 3, but if I did zero unit picks, this would be one.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Washington covers)

Sharps lean: WAS 7 ATL 9

Atlanta Falcons 31 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 4-0

Well, it wasn’t pretty, but the Falcons got their 4th win to become the NFL’s 3rd 4-0 team this season. Arizona is think is a complete fluke, but both Houston and Atlanta are for real and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see these two teams in the Super Bowl. Houston has the edge right now because none of their games have been really close. Plus, they have the yards per play differential edge and I think they’re more well rounded. Atlanta’s defense looked awfully leaky last week. That could eventually be their downfall.

Studs

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 103 yards (52 after contact) on 13 carries, 11 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 drop

WR Roddy White: Caught 8 passes for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 attempts on 49 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

RE John Abraham: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Tyson Clabo: Allowed 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for 25 yards on 4 attempts

WR Julio Jones: Caught 1 pass for 30 yards on 8 attempts on 45 pass plays, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 7 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

SS William Moore: Allowed 4 catches for 61 yards on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

DT Peria Jerry: Did not record a pressure on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

The Carolina Panthers looked terrible on national television last week, turning the ball over 5 times en route to a 36-7 home loss to the Giants. The Falcons, meanwhile, looked great last week, forcing 4 turnovers, while committing only one of their own, en route to a 27-3 road win in San Diego. The Falcons are 3-0 with wins over Denver and San Diego, while Carolina is 1-2 with their only win coming against a 0-3 New Orleans team. Atlanta has the league’s best turnover differential at +10, while Carolina has the league’s worst at -6. Atlanta is also awesome at home. They’ll dominate the turnover battle and win this ease right?

Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the public is pounding the Falcons.  If this year is any indication, the public perception is normally wrong. That’s why the odds makers are rich. On games with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is just 4-12 this year. This game fits that description. However, there are several reasons why I think Carolina has a good chance to cover.

For one, they actually rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, while Atlanta ranks 10th. Carolina’s point per play differential is .8 yards better than Atlanta’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” Using that, Carolina should actually be FAVORED by 2.5 points. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s definitely worth noting.

So why is there such a big difference between the two teams’ records and their yards per play differential? Well, turnover differential is obviously a huge part of it, but I find yards to be a much more consistent stat. Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5, like the Panthers did last week, have a turnover differential of +0.0 in their following game since 2002. Meanwhile, teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002.

Unlike people think, the Falcons won’t necessarily dominate the turnover battle and dominate this game. History suggests that each team will have an equal amount of turnovers and that will make whichever team can outgain the other the team that’s most likely to win. I know it’s been only 3 games, but if this season is any indication, that team is Carolina.

Three more good trends work in Carolina’s favor. Carolina is coming off a Thursday Night game, so they’ll be well rested. Teams in this situation are 109-89 ATS on Sundays. The Panthers are also coming off a blowout loss, which, however counterintuitive, is a positive trend for them this week. Teams coming off embarrassing losses (28 points or more) are 99-69 ATS since 2002. Those teams tend to be undervalued by the odds makers after because of overreaction to one week. Carolina is also dogs before and after being favorites coming off a loss, a situation teams are 46-21 ATS in since 2002. Teams tend to be extra focused for a tough opponent coming off an upset loss, knowing that there’s an easy game on the horizon.

The Panthers aren’t really undervalued here because there hasn’t been any line movement from last week to this week, despite what happened with these two teams last week, but it’s very possible that the odds makers are just doing that to keep this a “too good to be true” line and setting the public up to fail, as they do so often. This game has all the looks of a game where the odds makers murder the public again. I’m not falling for it.

Carolina is a much better team than they’ve looked this season, especially than they looked last week, while Atlanta has been very reliant on turnovers this year. Atlanta could also be flat this week against an inferior team after finally having been anointed as the top team in the NFC. The only reason this isn’t a very large play is because of how good Atlanta is at home with Matt Ryan (26-5 SU, 21-9 ATS), but they’re just 6-4 ATS in the division and we have some room with this big line and touchdown protection, so this is still a fairly large play and my co-pick of the week.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CAR 14 ATL 7

Update: My 3 co-picks of the week all coincide with the 3 strongest sharps leans of the week. Feeling good.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +7 (-110) 4 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 5 (+3)

Record: 3-0

As many good teams as there are in the NFC, there isn’t a clear favorite. Maybe I just like poking holes in teams. Atlanta, however, is the best the NFC has right now and the favorite to represent them in the Super Bowl. The hole you can poke in them is that they rank just 10th in yards per play differential and they’re dominating the turnover battle with a whopping +10. However, they can’t continue to count on that going forward. Eventually, they’ll have to beat a team when they don’t dominate or win the turnover battle. They haven’t done that yet, though they’ve looked awfully good.

Atlanta Falcons

Studs

C Todd McClure: Didn’t allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 12 attempts

RT Tyson Clabo: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 5 attempts

TE Tony Gonzalez: Caught 9 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 2.1 YAC per catch 1 interception when thrown to

CB Asante Samuel: Allowed 4 catches for 31 yards on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Thomas DeCoud: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

LE Ray Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Falcons’ Michael Turner arrested for DUI

stevenlourie Falcons, News

The Falcons are having a great start to the season, winning both of their games, but Michael Turner’s season isn’t going so well. The Falcons have been winning largely in spite of running back Michael Turner, who has carried the ball 28 times for 74 yards and a touchdown in 2 games. He’s never been good as a pass catcher and has caught just 1 pass for 0 yards and now he’s not even good in the same short yardage situation he used to excel in, taking 3 tries to punch it in from the 1 against Denver last week. The people who said the 30 year old was done appear to be winning that argument so far.

Just when it looked like things couldn’t get worse for Turner, he was arrested for DUI immediately following the Falcons’ win on Monday Night Football over the Broncos. This is Turner’s first offense and he will not be suspended, but it looks really bad when a starting running back gets arrested immediately following a big win, especially on that he didn’t play particularly well in. It’s unclear if this arrest, as well as his recent struggles, will lead to a reduced role for him, but it should. The Falcons spent the offseason taking up backup Jacquizz Rodgers, a 2011 5th round pick, but have given him just 12 touches to Turner’s 29 in 2 games. He deserves to be given a larger role going forward and we’ll see if he gets it this week in San Diego. He’s worth a bench stash in fantasy leagues for the time being, especially for Turner owners.

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Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-0)

The Chargers are one of just six 2-0 teams left in the NFL. Have they conquered their early season woes? They certainly look good. They’ve used 7 of their last 8 picks in the first 3 rounds on defensive players and it seems to have paid off while veterans like Quentin Jammer and Shaun Phillips seem to be holding things together for one more year. Meanwhile, on offense, Philip Rivers might be the MVP of the league for the first 2 games, leading this team to a 2-0 record despite not having much to throw with. He’s playing behind the league’s worst offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency and he’s doing it while throwing to Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem (just kidding, no one ever throws to Robert Meachem), and one game of Antonio Gates. His running game isn’t helping him much either as none of their backs have really gotten much going in Ryan Mathews’ absence.

The good news for Rivers is that Mathews will be back this week. Mathews is injury prone, but he’s one of the most talented backs in the league and they were planning on using him as an everything back so he should definitely help their offense. Gates is also expected back. The problem is their schedule is getting much harder this week. I don’t fully believe they’ve conquered their early season problems just because they’re 2-0 after beating two crappy teams. They started 4-1 last year beating up on crappy teams before eventually going on a 6 game losing streak once things got harder. Before last year, they were 14-12 from weeks 1-5 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last week, they’re actually just 4-7 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era.

This week, the Falcons come to town and they represent by far their toughest opponent so far. Matt Ryan and this passing offense has been as advertised, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the defense has been okay despite the loss of Brent Grimes for the season.

However, I wasn’t overly impressed with the Falcons’ performance last week on Monday Night Football. I felt like they should have been up 20 given how badly the Broncos started and how much they turned the ball over, but they didn’t capitalize like they should have. They lost the yardage total battle and the yards per play battle and if it wasn’t for those 4 turnovers, they probably would have lost at home by double digits. They can’t keep relying on winning the turnover battle to win games.

As a result of that game, they actually have a yards per play differential at even, +0, and that’s my favorite stat and what I feel is the best indicator of how a team has played and how they will play in the future. For what it’s worth though, the Chargers sit at only +0.3, so it’s not like they’re much better. Neither team’s yards per play differential is as good as their record. On top of that, I don’t really trust the Falcons outside on the road, especially on just 5 days rest coming off Monday Night Football.

I’m really torn on this one. I don’t believe the Chargers have gotten rid of their early season problems and I feel they could be due for a stinker now that they’re playing an actually good opponent. However, I wasn’t that impressed with the Falcons on Monday Night Football at home, where they’re best and now they go on the road on short rest. Besides, the Chargers never blew out a team last year in their strong start against an easy schedule like they did last week.

I’m picking the Chargers because the Falcons are one of the heaviest public underdogs you’ll ever see. Not only do I love betting against the public when the action is heavy in one direction (the public is getting killed on these types of games this year), I love it even more when the publicly backed team is an underdog. The Chargers are getting their due respect against a Falcons team that, like they are, is hasn’t really played as well as their record would suggest. I’m taking the home team for a small play.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

San Diego Chargers 28 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 1 unit

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