NFL Picks

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1)

These two teams met in the post-season on this same field in what ended up being one of the craziest post-season finishes of all time, with the Vikings scoring on a 61-yard, last second touchdown to pull away with a 29-24 victory and advance to the NFC Championship game. That was a very evenly matched game, but a lot has changed since then. Both teams remain in contention in 2018, but the Saints have looked a lot better than the Vikings in doing it, going 5-1 with a +41 point differential and ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +3.74%, despite getting off to one of their signature slow starts (2-12 ATS in the first 2 games of the season since 2012, 54-38 ATS after week 2).

The Vikings, on the other hand, have a solid record, but have not looked good in doing it. Despite an easy schedule that has featured the Cardinals, Jets, and Bills, the Vikings are just +12 in point differential and rank just 21st in first down rate differential at -1.57%. The big problem for them has been injuries. After having the fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense in the league in 2017, the Vikings have had numerous injuries to key players in 2018.

Defensive tackle Linval Joseph could return from a one-game absence this week, but that’s not a guarantee, as he didn’t get in a full practice all week. Defensive end Everson Griffen will be back after missing the last 5 games with mental health issues, but he probably won’t play every down immediately in his return. Even if those two play and play well, the Vikings will still be missing outside linebacker Anthony Barr, safety Andrew Sendejo, cornerback Mike Hughes, and cornerback Xavier Rhodes, four defensive starters. They will also be without left tackle Riley Reiff, left guard Tom Compton, and running back Dalvin Cook on the offensive side of the ball.

The Saints, meanwhile, are close to fully healthy and playing great football, after winning last week in a tough one on the road in Baltimore. Despite the wide talent gap between these two teams, the Saints are just 1 point road favorites in this one. I have this line calculated at New Orleans -4, so we’re getting significant line value that crosses the key number of 3. The Saints have a great chance to cover in a game they basically just need to win to cover. This is my Pick of the Week this week.

New Orleans Saints 26 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-3) at Los Angeles Rams (7-0)

The Rams are the last unbeaten team in the league at 7-0. They’ve undoubtedly played the best of any team in the league this season, but they are still a little overrated, as the public seems to think they are a perfect team because of their record. In reality, they’ve faced a pretty easy schedule, with games against the Cardinals, Raiders, and 49ers, all of whom are among the worst few teams in the league. Their other 4 wins have come against the Broncos, Seahawks, Vikings, and Chargers, so the Packers could easily be the toughest team they’ve faced thus far.

They’re also a banged up right now. Cooper Kupp will miss his 2nd straight game with a knee injury, while their defense has not been the same since week 3, when they lost cornerback Aqib Talib indefinitely to injury and when fellow starting cornerback Marcus Peters suffered a leg injury that seems to have sapped his effectiveness. Since that week 3 game, the Rams have just one win by more than a touchdown and it came last week in San Francisco in a game in which the 49ers turned it over 4 times, leading to a +4 turnover margin for the Rams. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis anyway and it’s not hard to see how the Rams could have a harder time forcing takeaways against an Aaron Rodgers led team than a CJ Beathard led team.

Despite that, this line is all the way up to 9, as the odds makers know they can bump up the line on any Rams game because the public thinks the Rams are invincible. For some context, this is the most points by which Rodgers has been an underdog in his entire career. He’s only been an underdogs of 7+ points twice in his career, both times in the post-season and both times Rodgers and the Packers covered. Rodgers has also lost by more than 8 points just 17 times in 148 career starts, so he really doesn’t get blown out often.

The Packers were not playing great football before their bye, but they should be better coming out of the bye, as they get wide receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison and top cornerback Jaire Alexander back from injury. Rodgers is also as healthy as he’s been all year, as he got an extra week to rest the knee injury he’s been playing through since week 1. I have this line calculated at Rams -6.5, so we’re definitely getting some line value with the visitor. The Packers aren’t in a great spot with a trip to New England following this game, but the Packers won’t look past an undefeated team and the Rams are in a bad spot of their own with a trip to New Orleans on deck. I like the Packers chances of keeping this within a score.

Los Angeles Rams 33 Green Bay Packers 27

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +9

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)

Typically the rule of thumb for betting Thursday Night Football is to take the home team as long as they are comparable to or better than their opponents and as long as it’s not a division game. Non-divisional home favorites are 32-15 ATS all-time on Thursday nights, including 13-5 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more. That makes a lot of sense, as it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week and face an unfamiliar opponent, especially if that opponent has a talent advantage as well.

That trend is certainly in play here, with the Dolphins traveling to Houston on a short week as 7.5 point underdogs. Putting the Dolphins at even more of a disadvantage is the fact that they’ll be without arguably their two best pass catchers due to injury, with both Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills sidelined for this one. The Dolphins have solid depth at the wide receiver position, with both Jakeem Grant and Devante Parker capable of filling roles in 3-wide sets with slot receiver Danny Amendola, but this passing game could easily be out of sync with such limited practice time this week.

The Dolphins also have other problems besides the receiving corps. They’re 4-3, but they have a -26 point differential (4 wins by a combined 26 points, 3 losses by a combined 52 points) and rank 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.51%. They’re also starting backup quarterback Brock Osweiler for the 3rd straight week and, while he might not actually be that much of a downgrade from mediocre starter Ryan Tannehill, him starting just makes it more likely this passing game will be out of sync on a short week, with a backup quarterback throwing to unfamiliar receivers.

The Texans have some issues on offense too, with Deshaun Watson at less than 100%, playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, but their defense has played like a top-5 unit this year with all of their key players back healthy, ranking 3rd in first down rate allowed at 31.22%, only behind the Ravens and Jaguars. Overall, they rank 8th in first down rate differential at +2.47%. I wish we were getting more line value with the Texans, as I have these two teams about 4.5 points apart in my roster rankings, suggesting this line is accurate, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes and I would definitely bet them if the line went back down to 7 where it briefly opened, as the Texans should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Houston Texans 24 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -7.5

Confidence: Low

2018 Week 7 NFL Pick Results

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Week 7

Total Against the Spread: 9-5

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence Picks: 0-0

Medium Confidence Picks: 2-2

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 3-2

Low Confidence Picks: 2-1

No Confidence Picks: 4-2

Upset Picks: 1-0

2018

Total Against the Spread: 63-41-3 (60.28%)

Pick of the Week: 3-3-1

High Confidence Picks: 7-5

Medium Confidence Picks: 21-11

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 31-19-1 (61.76%)

Low Confidence Picks: 11-10

No Confidence Picks: 21-12-2

Upset Picks: 9-9-1

All-Time (Since 2013)

Total Against the Spread: 748-640-39 (53.78%)

Pick of the Week: 54-37-3 (59.04%)

Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 361-265-15 (57.49%)

Upset Picks: 116-145-1 (44.47%)

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-5) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4)

When this line opened at Atlanta -6 earlier this week, I was considering a bet on the Giants. The Giants were blown out on national television last week on Thursday Night Football against the Eagles, which is probably why the line opened so high, but playing a good team like the Eagles on a short week is very tough, so I didn’t hold that against them too much. On top of that, the rest of the Giants’ losses have been close and the Falcons shouldn’t be favored by 6 points against anyone other than the Bills, given that their injury plagued defense can’t stop anyone.

Unfortunately, the line has since shifted all the way down to 4, so we’ve lost a lot of line value. The Falcons also are expected to get talented defensive tackle Grady Jarrett back from a two game absence, which gives their defense a boost. I’m still taking the Giants because I expect this to be a close game and I expect a much better effort from the Giants with extra time to rest and prepare, but this is a no confidence pick.

Atlanta Falcons 30 New York Giants 27

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4

Confidence: None

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)

The Jaguars got off to a great start to the season, building on an AFC Championship appearance last year with a 2-0 start, including an impressive win over the Patriots, who eliminated them in the post-season last year. However, since that win the Jaguars have sputtered, losing 3 of 4 games, including their last 2 by a combined 49 points. Losing on the road in Kansas City wasn’t exactly a surprise, but the Jaguars were then dominated by a middle of the road Cowboys team last week.

Many point to the absence of running back Leonard Fournette, who has had just 20 carries in 2 games this season, while dealing with lingering hamstring injuries, but the Jaguars’ offense didn’t miss much of a beat without Fournette went he was hurt last season and the running game hasn’t really been the problem for the Jaguars this season, as backup running back TJ Yeldon has averaged 4.46 yards per carry on 67 carries. The Jaguars were also without Fournette in their game against New England, although that Patriots team was less than 100% with several key absences.

The bigger issue has been the declining play of quarterback Blake Bortles, who remains a highly inconsistent starting quarterback. Bortles has a 99.8 QB rating in the Jaguars 3 wins, but a 63.2 QB rating in their 3 losses and has struggled mightily in recent weeks after a hot start. The “real” Blake Bortles is probably somewhere right in the middle of what he’s been in their wins and what he’s been in their losses this season, but he’s a very frustrating quarterback to predict on a week-to-week basis. Assuming an average Bortles performance this week, I have this line calculated at Jacksonville -4, which is right about where this line is anyway, so I have no desire to bet either side in this one. For pick ‘em purposes, I would take the Texans, who have played a lot of close games this year (all 6 decided by 7 points or fewer), but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Houston +4.5

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (3-2-1) at New York Jets (3-3)

The Jets have gotten off to a surprising 3-3 start, but they’ve faced a relatively easy schedule. Their wins have come over the Lions, Broncos, and Colts and even the teams they’ve lost to are not that impressive, losing to the Dolphins, Browns, and Jaguars. They’re also a bottom-4 team in first down rate differential at -4.56% and have the worst red zone touchdown percentage in the league, scoring a touchdown on just 30% of their red zone opportunities, with most of their scores coming on longer plays from outside the 20.

Making matters worse, the Jets come into this game pretty banged up. They will be without 2 of their top-3 cornerbacks again this week, with Trumaine Johnson and Buster Skrine still injured, and they will also be without top receiver Quincy Enunwa and the receiver who likely would have replaced Enunwa in the lineup, Terrelle Pryor. On top of that, top running back Isaiah Crowell is at less than 100% with a foot injury.

Fortunately, they’re facing an equally banged up Minnesota team. Projected by many to be a top contender in the NFC, the Vikings have been underwhelming in large part due to injury and rank just 22nd in first down rate differential. Defensive end Everson Griffen and running back Dalvin Cook have missed extended periods of time and continue to be out, while left tackle Riley Reiff and safety Andrew Sendejo will miss their second straight game this week, after missing last week’s underwhelming home performance at home against the Cardinals. Even with those players out, I still have this line calculated at Minnesota -4, but there’s not nearly enough here to bet this game.

Update: Linval Joseph was unexpectedly ruled out for the Vikings Sunday morning, but this line has not moved to compensate. I’m changing my pick to the Jets, but this remains a no confidence pick.

Minnesota Vikings 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2) in London

Typically, I love going against significant week-to-week line movement, as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This line moved the most of any of the lines this week, going from Chargers -3 to Chargers -6.5 in this neutral site game in London. It’s not hard to figure out why, as the Chargers won 38-14 in Cleveland last week, while the Titans were shutout at home by the Ravens in a 21-0 loss.

I still think it’s a little bit of an overreaction though. The Chargers could wind up being a contender in the AFC, but their defense isn’t the same without Joey Bosa, who continues to be out. The Titans, meanwhile, have not played well in the past couple of weeks, but they still have a strong defense and won games against the Eagles and Jaguars earlier this season, so I have a hard time figuring out how the Chargers are 6.5 points better than them as currently constructed. I have this line calculated at -3.5, so we’re getting significant line value with the underdog.

There are two reasons this isn’t a bigger play though. For one, the Chargers always tend to play well away from home, which makes sense, as they have next to no homefield advantage. They are 31-19-3 ATS on the road since 2012, including 6-3-2 ATS since moving to Los Angeles last season. The second reason is that big favorites tend to cover in neutral site games, as they tend to be better prepared and have the crowd on their side. Favorites of 4+ are 13-1 ATS all-time in neutral site games. There could easily be more Chargers fans at this game than a typical game in Los Angeles, though you can definitely argue the Chargers don’t deserve to be favorites of 4+. It’s not a big bet on Tennessee, but we’re getting too much line value to pass on here.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-2)

There has been a lot of talk about the Cowboys’ offensive struggles, but they showed last week that they can still be a tough opponent because of their strong defense, pulling an upset at home over the Jaguars in blowout fashion by a final score of 40-7. Former safety Byron Jones has thrived since moving back to cornerback. Their linebacking corps has played at a high level even without the injured Sean Lee, thanks to strong play by young linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith. And their defensive line has been solid and will likely continue to get better with top interior pass rusher David Irving now in his 2nd game back after returning from suspension.

Their strong defense gets another boost this week, with Lee expected to return from a 3-game absence. Lee was not missed as much as he normally is, as the Cowboys are much better on that side of the ball than normal, but he’ll still be a welcome re-addition for this team. On the other side, the Redskins have some major injury problems with their offensive skill position talent. Their top-2 wide receivers Paul Richardson and Jamison Crowder are both out with injury, while passing down back Chris Thompson, who would likely pick up a lot of the slack with Richardson and Crowder out, is highly questionable after missing last week with injury and not getting in a full practice all week.

Unfortunately, we’ve lost all line value with the Cowboys, as this line has shifted from -3 on the early line to even this week. It’s only 3 points, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so it’s a significant line movement. I have this line calculated at Washington -1, so we’re actually getting a little bit of line value with the host, although not nearly enough to bet on it. The Cowboys have also been a strong road team in recent years, going 36-31 (38-29 ATS) on the road since 2010, as opposed to 35-34 at home, though they haven’t looked good yet on the road this year. I’m taking the Redskins for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Washington Redskins 17 Dallas Cowboys 16

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None