NFL Picks

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-1)

The Raiders suffered a shocking defeat in Washington last week, losing 27-10 in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score. The Raiders managed just 7 first downs all game, compared to 18 for the Redskins. Considering the Raiders were 2-0 going into the game and how talented their roster is, it was a very surprising outcome. As a result, this line has moved from a pick ‘em last week on the early line to the Broncos now being favored by a field goal. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 field goal or less, so that’s a significant line movement.

I think that game will likely look like a fluke when all is said and done this season though. On top of that, the Redskins are a quality team, so it’s not necessarily a bad sign that the Redskins were able to defeat them like that in Washington. I’m not sure the same can be said of the Broncos’ loss in Buffalo last week, as Denver’s roster is not quite as talented as the Raiders’ roster and the Bills are a weaker opponent than the Redskins. This line is at -3, suggesting these two teams are even, but I have this line calculated at only -1, so we’re getting some decent line value as a result of the line movement.

It also helps that the Raiders are in their second of two road games, as teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 242-260 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 1.02 points per game, as opposed to 353-492 straight up in a road game that’s sandwiched between two home games, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game, a difference of about 2 points. It especially helps that the Raiders are underdogs off a loss, as road underdogs in their 2nd of two road games are 114-76 ATS off of a road loss. Broncos have an upcoming bye, but that could work against them in what should be a tough matchup, as home favorites of 1 to 5.5 are just 40-64 ATS since 2002 before a bye. There’s enough here to take the field goal with some confidence.

Oakland Raiders 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)

The Buccaneers opened their season with a 29-7 win at home over the Bears week 2 (after their week 1 game was rescheduled because of Hurricane Irma), but then they had an equally big loss last week, losing 34-17 in Minnesota to a Vikings team led by starting quarterback Case Keenum. What happened? Well, turnover margin was a one huge difference, as they won the turnover battle by 3 in the opener, but then lost it by 3 last week. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Buccaneers probably aren’t as good as they looked in the opener and probably aren’t as bad as they looked last week.

The other huge difference between week 2 and week 3 for the Buccaneers was injuries, as the Buccaneers were without middle linebacker Kwon Alexander, defensive tackle Chris Baker, and cornerback Brent Grimes with injury, all above average starters on this defense. While they should bounce back turnover wise, the Buccaneers could be in even worse shape injury wise this week. Baker and Grimes are expected back, but Alexander remains out and will be joined by safety TJ Ward and outside linebacker Lavonte David. David is the biggest loss as he was playing as well as any linebacker in the league before going down.

They do face an 0-3 Giants team, but the Giants have faced a pretty tough schedule so far (Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia), so the banged up Buccaneers might be their easiest opponent so far this season. Despite the tough schedule and the 0-3 record, the Giants are -1.77% in first down rate differential, which isn’t terrible all things considered. Their offense has struggled like it did last season, but their defense has continued to play well, despite missing talented cornerback Janoris Jenkins week 2 and promising middle linebacker BJ Goodson in both week 2 and week 3. Both of those players will play this week for a Giants team that is in a much better injury situation than their opponents this week.

The Giants are also in a much better situation than the Buccaneers schedule wise, as they host the Chargers next week, while the Buccaneers have to turn around and host the Patriots on a short week on Thursday Night Football. Underdogs tend to cover before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs, going 100-64 ATS in that spot since 2012. On top of that, teams are just 45-100 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more and Tampa Bay is currently +4.5 against New England on the early line.

The short week makes matters worse for the Buccaneers, as favorites are 58-88 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. With a tough game in 4 days, the Buccaneers might not be fully focused for the winless Giants, while the Giants should be fully focused with a relatively easy game on deck. I wish we were getting more line value, as the Buccaneers’ big loss in Minnesota moved this line from 6 on the early line last week to 3 this week, but the Giants are still worth a bet at 3. I have this line calculated at -1.5 given everyone the Buccaneers are missing and the Giants are in a great spot as well.

New York Giants 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-1) in London

The Saints are only 1-2, but they’ve had a tough start to the season, facing the Vikings in Minnesota week 1 when Sam Bradford was still healthy, the Patriots back at home in New Orleans week 2, and then a 2-0 Panthers team in Carolina last week, where they won by 21 points (34-13). Carolina was banged up offensively, but the Panthers had been playing excellent football on the defensive side of the ball, so that was a pretty impressive win. The Saints picked up first downs at a 11.66% higher rate than the Panthers in that game.

Now the schedule gets significantly easier for the Saints, as they enter their bye week with a trip to London to play a Dolphins team that is easily their weakest opponent of the season. The Dolphins won 10 games and made the playoffs last season, but they played arguably the weakest schedule in the league and won 8 of their 10 games by 7 points or fewer, including near losses against the Jets, 49ers, Browns, and Rams. Those were arguably the four worst teams in the league last season and the Dolphins struggled with them. They also lost 4 regular season games by a combined 81 points and lost by 18 to the Steelers in the playoffs.

Making matters worse, the Dolphins lost starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the season before week 1 and had to bring in the previously retired Jay Cutler, who has been a noticeable downgrade so far this season. The Dolphins won in Los Angeles against the Chargers week 1, but that’s because the Chargers have no homefield advantage and because the Chargers missed two makeable field goals. Last week, the Dolphins lost to the lowly Jets by 14 points in New York. They enter the week dead last in the league in first down rate differential (-9.17%) and they haven’t had a tough schedule.

The Saints are arguably the best team the Dolphins have faced so far this season because they’re finally getting guys back that have been out. Not only is the Saints schedule getting easier, but their roster is getting more talented too, so they could be a smart bet going forward. Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore returns from a one game absence, while right tackle Zach Strief will return to the lineup for the first time since being knocked out in the first half against the Vikings week 1. They could also get back slot cornerback Sterling Moore back from his one game absence, wide receiver Willie Snead back for the first time this season, and, most importantly, left tackle Terron Armstead back for the first time this season. I have this line calculated at about -7 in favor of the Saints, so we’re getting significant value with New Orleans.

The Saints are also in a better spot than the Dolphins because they get a bye week next week, while the Dolphins have to travel back home to face a tough Tennessee team. That game will actually by the Dolphins’ season opener, as they’ve started their season with a brutal stretch. Their week 1 game was moved to week 11 by Hurricane Irma and since then they’ve had to play games in Los Angeles, New York, and now London in a 3-week stretch, before ever getting to play at home. The Saints could be more focused for this game and are a significantly better team overall, so they should be able to win by a field goal or more. If this line drops to 2.5, I’d move this up to a high confidence pick, but they’re still worth betting at 3.

New Orleans Saints 31 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

Typically, I love going against significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This case is no different. The Packers were favored by 11.5 on the early line last week, but now are favored by just 4.5, a massive line movement. It’s not hard to understand why, as the Packers needed overtime to beat the winless Bengals, who entered as 7.5 point underdogs, while the Bears pulled out the overtime home victory over the previously undefeated Steelers, who entered the game as 7.5 point favorites. However, the line movement is still a major overreaction.

The Bears’ win was impressive, but it came against a Pittsburgh team that always plays down to the level of their competition in non-divisional road games. The Steelers are just 2-10 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 7 or more in the Ben Roethlisberger era and they lost 6 of those 12 games straight up. Winning in Lambeau, where the Packers are 28-15 ATS as favorites of 7 or more in the Aaron Rodgers era, is going to be a different test.

The Bengals nearly pulled it off last week, but that was because the Packers had so many injuries. They were without starting wide receiver Randall Cobb, stud left tackle David Bakhtiari, and arguably their two best defensive players, defensive end Mike Daniels and outside linebacker Nick Perry. They won’t get everyone back, as Bakhtiari is expected to be out again and right tackle Bryan Bulaga will join him on the sideline, but Cobb will play and Perry and Daniels sound like they have a good chance to be out there as well, which would be a huge help for this defense. Even with the Packers not at 100%, I have this line calculated at around 10, so we’re getting significant line value with the home team as a result of the undeserved line movement.

Making matters worse for the Bears, they have to make this trip to Lambeau on a short week. Home favorites are 73-51 ATS on Thursday Night, including 38-24 ATS as home favorites of 6+ points. The better team understandably tends to cover on Thursday Night if they’re at home and Aaron Rodgers is 4-1 ATS unsurprisingly at Lambeau on Thursday Night. On top of that, road teams are just 2-16 ATS on Thursday Night after an overtime game. The Packers are coming off of an overtime game too, but they’re the home team and teams are a slightly better 2-6 ATS at home on Thursday after an overtime game.

I don’t think the Bears are a terrible team, but expecting them to travel to Lambeau and keep it close on a short week after an overtime game is too much. It’ll help their preparation on a short week that they’re facing a familiar opponent, but this is still a daunting task. It’s worth at least a small bet on the Packers as touchdown favorites. If Daniels and Perry are both definitely playing and this line stays around where it currently is, I might bump this up to a high confidence pick before gametime. This is also my Survivor Pick (BUF, OAK, NE, GB).

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

NYG +3 @ TB

OAK +3 @ DEN

Thursday Update: Perry and Cobb are active for the Packers, but Mike Daniels is not, so I am leaving this as a medium conference pick. Daniels being out is also enough for me to switch my survivor pick, as there are two other good options later in the week (Atlanta vs. Buffalo and Seattle vs. Indianapolis).

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

2017 Week 3 NFL Pick Results

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2017

Straight Up: 29-18

Against the Spread: 26-21

Pick of the Week: 2-1

High Confidence: 4-3

Medium Confidence: 6-5

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 12-9

Low Confidence: 7-6

No Confidence: 7-6

Upset Picks: 4-4

Since 2013

Straight Up: 705-406-4 (63.41%)

Against the Spread: 578-509-28 (53.09%)

Pick of the Week: 42-29-2 (58.90%)

High Confidence: 63-51-3 (55.13%)

Medium Confidence: 172-124-5 (57.97%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 277-204-10 (57.43%)

Low Confidence: 152-151-9 (50.16%)

No Confidence: 149-154-9 (49.20%)

Upset Picks: 92-115 (44.44%)

2017 Week 3 NFL Picks

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Pick of the Week

Jacksonville +4 vs. Baltimore

High Confidence Picks

Cincinnati +7.5 @ Green Bay

LA Chargers +3.5 vs. Kansas City

Medium Confidence Picks

New England -14 vs. Houston

Buffalo +3.5 vs. Denver

Indianapolis +1.5 vs. Cleveland

Low Confidence Picks

Atlanta -3 @ Detroit

Arizona +3.5 vs. Dallas

Philadelphia -6 vs. NY Giants

Minnesota +2.5 vs. Tampa Bay

Tennessee -2.5 vs. Seattle

No Confidence Picks

Carolina -5.5 vs. New Orleans

Chicago +7.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Washington +3 vs. Oakland

NY Jets +6.5 vs. Miami

San Francisco +3 vs. LA Rams

Upset Picks

Minnesota +130 vs. Tampa Bay

LA Chargers +150 vs. Kansas City

Indianapolis +105 vs. Cleveland

Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (2-0) at Washington Redskins (1-1)

This is the toughest game of the week because the line is right where it’s supposed to be and neither team is in a particularly good or bad spot. I have these two teams about six points apart, so a line of -3 in favor of the visiting Raiders makes a lot of sense. I’m taking the Redskins for one reason and one reason only and that’s to fade the public, as the public is betting heavily on the Raiders this week. Casual fans don’t realize the importance of homefield advantage so they think the Raiders will easily beat the Redskins by more than a field goal. I think they’ll have a little bit more trouble than that. This could easily be a field goal game and a push. I have no interest in picking either side outside of pick ‘em leagues.

Oakland Raiders 30 Washington Redskins 27

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: None

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (0-2)

This is a classic Steelers trap game. The Steelers are just 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of 4.5 or more in the Ben Roethlisberger era (since 2004). For whatever reason, this team always seems to play down to the level of their competition on the road outside of the division. That could easily happen again here. The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league, but this line is high enough for them to cover. They nearly beat the Falcons at home week 1, failing on 4 straight shots on the goal line at the end of the game in a 6-point loss. Something similar could easily happen here.

All that being said, I can’t be confident in the Bears because I hate the spot they are in. After this game, they have to turn around and play in Lambeau Field against the Packers in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. That a daunting task even on a normal week. The Bears are expected to be double digit underdogs in that game and teams are 44-70 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, as tough upcoming games tend to be a distraction for teams. Even if the Bears don’t end up being double digit underdogs, teams are 29-48 ATS since 2012 as 7+ point underdogs before being 7+ point underdogs again, which the Bears definitely will be. This is such a tough part of the schedule for the Bears that they could lose to the Steelers by double digits even if the Steelers don’t play all that well. The Bears are the pick, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7.5

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-0)

The Panthers’ defense has been incredible through the first 2 games of the season with Luke Kuechly back from the concussions that cost him time last season and with a pair of young cornerbacks (James Bradberry and Daryl Worley) taking a step forward. They’ve allowed just 23 first downs and no touchdowns through 2 games. Even against the likes of the Bills and the 49ers, those kind of numbers are impressive. Unfortunately, their offense has some major issues. Cam Newton still looks rusty after off-season surgery and their offense struggled to move the ball all game against the Bills after losing tight end Greg Olsen and center Ryan Kalil, a pair of very valuable veteran offensive players.

Olsen and Kalil will be out for an extended period of time, so the Panthers will have to adapt. Fortunately, they get to face arguably the worst defense in the league this week with the Saints coming to town. The Saints’ defense is banged up too, missing #1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore and slot cornerback Sterling Moore. Between those two and Delvin Breaux, who has been out all season, the Saints are missing their top-3 cornerbacks. They are also without a talented defensive tackle, Nick Fairley, for the season.

The Saints also have key players missing on offense, with left tackle Terron Armstead and right tackle Zach Strief both out with injuries and #2 wide receiver Willie Snead still suspended. With both teams banged up, this line is right around where it should be at 5.5. I am taking the Panthers just because the Saints have to go to London after this one and teams are understandably 11-21 ATS before going to London all-time. The Saints could easily keep it close throughout or get a backdoor touchdown late though.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Carolina -5.5

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

The Vikings’ season got off to such a promising start with Sam Bradford having the game of his life in their week 1 home victory over the Saints. However, Bradford’s surgically repaired knee started giving him trouble a few days after that game and now he’s out indefinitely. Bradford was originally acquired from the Eagles for a first round pick because the Vikings lost Teddy Bridgewater to a horrific knee injury three weeks before the start of the 2016 season and needed a replacement. Bridgewater remains out, so the Vikings are in a unique position of having two franchise caliber quarterbacks on the roster and not being able to play either of them.

Instead, veteran journeyman Case Keenum started in their week 2 loss in Pittsburgh and he’ll start again this week at home for the Buccaneers. Bradford’s injury shifted this line all the way to 2.5 in favor of the visiting Buccaneers. That translates to a line of about 8 or 8.5 in Tampa Bay, which doesn’t make sense because the Bears were just 6.5 point underdogs there last week and the Vikings are still a much better team than the Bears even with Keenum under center. The Buccaneers beat the Bears 29-7, but that was largely because they won the turnover battle by 3, which is not something they can count on every week. Teams that win the turnover battle by 3, on average, have a +0.0 turnover margin the following week.

Tampa Bay will also be without a pair of talented defensive starters, with defensive tackle Chris Baker and middle linebacker Kwon Alexander both out. The Vikings are healthy other than Bradford and Bridgewater and they have a lot of supporting talent around Keenum on both sides of the ball. Keenum is a backup caliber quarterback, but he’s not the worst backup in the world and the Vikings have a good chance to pull the upset straight up. The money line is worth a small bet at +130, but I’d need a full field goal to bet on the spread. If this line moves up between now and game time, I’ll reconsider.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +2.5

Confidence: Low