Giants

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-7)

The Dolphins have won four straight games after a 1-7 start to move up to 5-7 and into the mix for a potential playoff spot in the AFC, but two of their wins came against two of the worst teams in the league, the Texans and Jets, by one score, another came against a Ravens team that was exhausted on a short week after an overtime game, a 16% cover spot all-time, and another came against a Panthers team that has arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league and then lost feature back Christian McCaffrey early in the first half with injury. 

In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Dolphins rank 29th, 20th, and 26th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively and their 28th ranked mixed efficiency shows them to still be one of the worst teams in the league from a statistical standpoint, despite a recent winning streak. The Dolphins went 10-6 a year ago, but they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%), and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), which was actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL), so they were not nearly as good as their record suggested.

The Dolphins continue to have an easy schedule this week, as not only are the 4-7 Giants coming to town, but they are doing so without injured starting quarterback Daniel Jones, who will be replaced by backup Mike Glennon. Jones isn’t a great quarterback, but he was not the problem with this offense and could at least make plays with his feet, while having some passing success, despite a terrible offensive line and a habitually banged up skill position group. Three of the Giants’ losses this season have come by three points or fewer, with none of their wins coming by that thin of a margin, so the Giants could easily have another couple wins and it’s a credit to Jones that the Giants have been able to be competitive in a lot of their games despite the issues on this offense around the quarterback.

Glennon is a significant downgrade from Jones and will also have to deal with that offensive line and a skill position group that is missing a pair of key wide receivers in Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard, though top receiver Kenny Golladay and feature back Saquon Barkley have returned from extended absences in recent week. The Giants’ defense is not healthy either, missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson from a group that already was not the same since losing top linebacker Blake Martinez and top safety Jabrill Peppers for the season earlier this year.

This line has jumped up to Miami -6, after favoring the Dolphins by just 2.5 points on the early line last week, so we’re getting some line value with the Giants even with all their injuries, which isn’t a surprise considering the Dolphins are overrated, but we aren’t getting nearly enough line value to take the Giants with any confidence, as many calculated line has the Dolphins favored by five points. Missing all they are missing due to injury, the Giants are among the worst teams in the league, so even the Dolphins should be favored by a significant amount at home against them, even if maybe not six points. I’m taking the Giants, but this is purely a fade of an overrated Dolphins team that has already struggled to separate from bad teams in the Jets and Texans in recent weeks.

Miami Dolphins 22 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6

Confidence: None

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at New York Giants (3-7)

I have thought the Eagles are a very underrated team in recent weeks and, despite back-to-back blowout victories and three blowout victories in their past four games, I think they remain a little underrated. The Eagles are just 5-6, but their +37 point differential is tied for 9th in the NFL, despite the fact that they have faced a relatively tough schedule, with all six of their losses coming against teams with a .500 or better record. 

In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Eagles rank 8th, 15th, 10th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively and 9th in mixed efficiency. They are also arguably better on offense than their rank suggests, given how much better they have played since getting their two talented starting offensive tackles back from multi-game absences earlier in the season. Even at 5-6, the Eagles are in good position to make a run and grab a wild card spot in the NFC, as they are only a half game out of a playoff spot currently and their schedule gets a lot easier from here on out.

Unfortunately, even though they are underrated, we aren’t getting good line value with the Eagles, as their opponents, the New York Giants, are underrated as well. The Giants are just 3-7 and everyone saw them be largely non-competitive against the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football last week, but the Buccaneers are arguably the best team in the league, so there isn’t much shame in that loss, and the Giants could easily have a couple more wins, as three of their losses came by three points or fewer, with none of their wins coming by that small of a margin. 

The combination of the Giants’ big loss in Tampa Bay and the Eagles’ big win over the Saints pushed this line off of favoring the Eagles by a field goal on the early line last week to now favoring them by 3.5 points, so another loss by the Giants by 3 points or fewer would cover this spread. The Eagles have beaten all four teams they have faced that have a losing record by an average of 19.5 points per game and my calculated line still has the Eagles favored by 5 points, but four and five aren’t really key numbers, so that isn’t much line value at all. I am taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but there isn’t nearly enough value here to take them with any sort of confidence.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 New York Giants 21

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (3-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

The Buccaneers are coming off of a loss last week, which has typically been a great spot to bet on a Tom Brady led team, as he is 47-24 ATS off of a loss in his career. However, that drops to 10-13 ATS when Brady is favored by a touchdown or more and the Buccaneers are 11-point favorites in this one. We saw the Buccaneers not cover in a similar spot last week, favored by 9.5 points in Washington, after a loss in their previous game to the Saints, ultimately losing their second straight game in an unfocused performance. 

I thought the Buccaneers would still be able to win big last week because they were coming off of a bye, a great spot for big road favorites, and facing a mediocre Washington team who had significant injury absences and previously had only beaten bad teams by one score, but the Buccaneers proved to be overvalued as big favorites. This week, I think that is even more the case, as the Buccaneers’ loss last week only pushed them down from 12.5-point favorites on the early line last week to 11-point favorites this week, against an underrated Giants team that looks to be a lot healthier coming out of their bye week.

The Giants are just 3-6, but three of their losses came by three points or fewer, while one of their big blowout losses came in Dallas in a game in which the Giants were tied with the Cowboys when quarterback Daniel Jones got hurt. The Giants’ point differential of -37 is better than their record suggests and, when you factor in their tough schedule, the Giants rank 19th, 11th, and 9th in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency. Their offense should be better going forward too, as they are getting much healthier on that side of the ball. 

They are still without wide receiver Sterling Shepard, but wide receivers Kadarius Toney (1 game missed), Kenny Golladay (3 games), and Darius Slayton (3 games) all missed significant time and have since returned to be the starters, as has tight end Evan Engram (2 games), while feature back Saquon Barkley (4 games) and top offensive lineman Andrew Thomas (4 games) are also expected back this week. Quarterback Daniel Jones is an underrated player who should perform better with more talent around him, so the Giants could easily be an underrated team the rest of the way if they can stay healthy on offense, with complementary units on defense and special teams.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, continue to have injury issues. They’ll get top tight end Rob Gronkowski back, but he remains a perpetual injury risk, while talented wide receiver Antonio Brown and top cornerback Carlton Davis remain out and will be joined by top defensive lineman Vita Vea, who will miss his first game of the season this year. The Buccaneers are still one of the more talented teams in the league and I am hesitant to bet against them with Tom Brady coming off of back-to-back losses, back at home where they have been better this season, but this game could still prove to be tougher than expected for the Buccaneers, even if they are ultimately likely to pull out the victory and avoid a third straight loss.

My calculated line has Tampa Bay favored by 9 points, so we’re getting line value with the Giants at +11, and I think there is something to the fact that Tom Brady has failed to cover in all seven night games he has played with the Buccaneers, as Brady is used to going to bed early and may get more tired than most would in a night game, as a result. There isn’t quite enough here with the Giants to bet on them, but it’s possible that changes depending on what I hear about certain injury situations and how close to 100% certain players are. If I decide to place a bet on the Giants, I will give an update.

Update: All of the expected active players are active for the Giants, including Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas, and none of expected to be limited in a significant way. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are confirmed to be without both Vita Vea and Antonio Brown, while tight end Rob Gronkowski is expected to be limited in his first game back. This was all expected, but there was always a chance something went different. Despite that, this line has moved up to 11.5, so I like the Giants for a small wager. They would be 6-3 if not for a trio of losses by a field goal or less and, with a solid defense and special teams, they could have easily won all of those games with a better offense. They should have that this week, arguably as healthy on that side of the ball as they have been since the start of the season. The Buccaneers are not good enough with their current injuries to be favored by double digits against a decent Giants team, with my calculated line now at Tampa Bay -8, before even taking into account that Brady has struggled in night games recently.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +11.5

Confidence: Medium

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) at New York Giants (2-6)

This game is one of the toughest calls of the week. On one hand, the Raiders are in a good spot coming off of a bye week, as road favorites of more than a field goal cover at a 63.5% rate all time after a bye week, but the Raiders also have a much bigger matchup than this on deck, facing divisional rival Kansas City after this matchup with a last place NFC team. The Raiders also aren’t as good as their 5-2 record, as their schedule has been relatively easy and they have just a +14 point differential, 14th best in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean we are getting good line value with the Giants as just 3.5-point home underdogs. 

The Giants are a better team than their 2-6 record, but right now it’s only marginally so, as they have several key offensive skill position players dealing with injuries, with feature back Saquon Barkley and starting wide receiver Sterling Shepard out and fellow starting wide receiver Kenny Golladay questionable to return from a 3-game absence and very possibly to be limited even if he doesn’t play. We are getting slight line value with the Raiders so they are the pick for pick ’em purposes, but I don’t have any real confidence in them covering this spread.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -3.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-4)

The Chiefs shockingly scored just 3 points last week against a Titans defense that was mediocre statistically coming into last week. Despite that uncharacteristically poor performance, the Chiefs still rank 1st on the season in first down rate at 39.5% and 5th in yards per play at 6.2. Their defense has been the problem for most of the season, ranking dead last in first down rate allowed at 38.3% and in yards per play allowed at 6.6, but defensive performance is much less predictive week-to-week than offensive performance and the Chiefs are much healthier on defense now than they have been all season.

Last week was the Chiefs’ first game with interior defender Chris Jones, cornerback Charvarius Ward, edge defender Frank Clark, and safety Tyrann Mathieu active at the same time, resulting in a solid defensive performance that was wasted by their terrible offensive performance. Assuming the Chiefs can bounce back on offense, their defense has enough talent to be a complementary unit going forward. The turnover margin has also been a problem for the Chiefs, as they rank tied for last with the Jaguars with a -10 turnover margin, but many of their turnovers have been on tipped balls or drops and turnover margin is not a predictive stat on a week-to-week basis in general. 

I would expect any team in the Chiefs’ turnover margin situation to bounce back going forward, but the Chiefs are better equipped than most teams to bounce back, as having an elite quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is the best way to consistently perform well in the turnover margin. Prior to this season, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin across Mahomes’ first three seasons in the league combined and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see their turnover situation swing dramatically over the remainder of the season. This line shifted from favoring the Chiefs by 13 on the early line last week to favoring them by 9.5 this week, as a result of the Chiefs’ disappointing performance in Tennessee and the Giants win over the Panthers last week, but that is a little bit of an overreaction. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting quite enough line value with the Chiefs for them to be worth betting because I do think the Giants are still a little underrated, as two of their losses came by a combined four points, while their loss to the Cowboys was a tied game when they lost Daniel Jones to a concussion. My calculated line is Kansas City -11.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Chiefs, but they’re also in a bit of a questionable spot, with a much tougher game against the Packers on deck after a short week, following this Monday Night Football contest.

Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 42.6% rate all-time before facing an opponent who has a winning percentage over 50% higher than their current opponent, which applies to the Chiefs this week. It’s possible the Chiefs won’t overlook the Giants, given that the Chiefs are coming off of an embarrassing loss, but they also might feel this will be an easy game to “get right” with and not focus as much as they would if this was a tougher opponent. There is enough uncertainty here for the Chiefs to not be worth a bet, even if they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Low

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New York Giants (1-5)

The Panthers started 3-0, but have fallen back to earth at 3-3. The schedule has gotten tougher, as their wins came against the Jets and Texans, two of the worst teams in the league, and the Saints, who were flat off of a huge week one win, while their recent losses have come to the Cowboys, Eagles, and Vikings. However, injuries have also been a big part of the problem and this team has legitimately seen it’s level of play fall off in recent weeks as a result of absences like feature back Christian McCaffrey, top cornerback Jaycee Horn, and top linebacker Shaq Thompson.

The Panthers schedule gets easier this week with a trip to New York to face the Giants, but the Giants aren’t as bad as the Jets or Texans, who were relatively competitive against the Panthers earlier this season. The Giants are just 1-5, but two of their losses have come by a combined four points, so they could easily have another win or two, while their blowout loss to the Cowboys was a tied game before quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a concussion that knocked him out for the game.

Overall, they rank 23rd in schedule adjusted first down rate, 22nd in schedule adjusted yards per play allowed, and 13th in special teams DVOA, not great, but also not in line with the worst teams in the league. The Giants are coming off their worst game of the season, losing 38-11 at home to the Rams, but betting a team coming off their worst game of the season tends to be a winning proposition as you can get good value, as we are in this game where the Giants are field goal home underdogs against an underwhelming opponent. The public is betting heavily on the Panthers as field goal road favorites because of recency bias, but my calculated line is at even. 

The Giants are also in a good spot as home underdogs immediately after being blown out as home underdogs, as teams cover at about a 59.3% rate in their second straight game as home underdogs after a loss by 14 points or more. Teams likely tend to be undervalued in that spot historically like the Giants are here and it seems to be easier for teams to compete with or better a superior team in their second of two home games than in the first. Between the line value and the good spot, the Giants are worth a play this week, as they have a good chance to pull the upset and we are getting a field goal cushion to work with if they don’t.

Update: The Giants surprisingly won’t have wide receiver Sterling Shepard, which hurts this offense, but I have already locked this pick in. The Giants aren’t a terrible bet even without Shepard, but I would have preferred if he played.

New York Giants 17 Carolina Panthers 16 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)

This line shifted from favoring the Rams by 6.5 points on the early line to now favoring them by 9 this week, crossing the key number of 7, a margin which decides about 10% of games. That shift is likely primarily due to the Rams winning by 9 in Seattle and the Giants losing by 24 in Dallas, but it’s hard to put much stock into the final score of either of those games because both games featured a quarterback getting injured and leaving the game at a time the game was much closer. In the Rams case, they were up just 9-7 in the third quarter and the Seahawks had the ball when Russell Wilson suffered a finger injury that hampered him before knocking him out of the game, while the Giants had played the Cowboys to a 10-10 tie in the second quarter when Daniel Jones left with a concussion and did not return. 

Jones is set to return for the Giants this week and, while they will be without top wide receiver Kenny Golladay and featured running back Saquon Barkley, Golladay’s absence should be more than offset by the return of both Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, who missed each of the past two games, while Barkley’s absence alone isn’t enough to move this line as significantly as it did, especially since he hasn’t been 100% all season anyway. I also thought the early line was too high to begin with at 6.5 and, even with the Giants missing key players to injury, my calculated line this week has the Rams favored by just 5.5 points.

The Giants are just 1-4, but two of their losses were very close games that could have been wins, while their loss to the Cowboys could have been a lot closer had the Giants not lost their quarterback in the middle of the game, even though the Cowboys have been one of the best teams in the league thus far. Daniel Jones doesn’t get a lot of respect from the national media, but he played pretty well before suffering a serious hamstring injury last year, when you take into account the brutal schedule he faced and how many drops his receivers had. 

This year, it’s showing up more in the statistics, as he ranks 10th in QBR and 8th in yards per attempt, despite an underwhelming and injury plagued supporting cast. Despite his statistical success, he’s still regarded as barely better than a replacement level quarterback, with this line only shifting about 1.5 points when it became clear that Jones would be able to play this week, even though backup Mike Glennon looked like a clear downgrade last week. The Giants have an underwhelming roster overall and Jones’ play hasn’t translated to wins, but they’ve been competitive in all but one of their games with Jones healthy and they should be able to keep this one relatively close. This isn’t a big play, but this line is inflated.

Los Angeles Rams 27 New York Giants 21

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +9

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

The Giants won their first game of the season last week, but it came against an overrated Saints team that has been inconsistent all season and that was missing several key players due to injury or suspension. That result shifted this line from favoring the Cowboys by 8.5 points on the early line last week to 7 points this week, even though the Cowboys were more impressive in a win over the Panthers. That line movement seems to be a mistake and my calculated line actually has the Cowboys favored by even more than the early line, as I have the Cowboys at -10.5. 

Overall, the Cowboys have been one of the most impressive teams in the league thus far this season, with an offense that ranks 2nd in first down rate and a defense that has been much improved over a year ago, even if only by default. The Giants are also in a tough spot because teams tend to struggle following big upset victories like the Giants’ victory over the Saints, especially if they are once again by underdogs. Road underdogs of a touchdown or more are 38-59 ATS over the past 30 seasons after a victory as underdogs of a touchdown or more. The Cowboys should be able to put this game away relatively early, though the possibility of a backdoor cover against the Cowboys’ shaky defense limits this to a medium confidence pick.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -7

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)

The Saints have easily been the most unpredictable team in the league thus far this season, with their two wins coming by 35 points and 15 points and their one loss coming by 19 points. It’s hard to figure them out, but not as hard as their final scores would suggest, as overall the Saints have averaged out to be about a middling team, with one of the better defenses in the league, but also one of the less efficient offenses, even in the Saints’ victories. 

They’re also growing more short handed by the week, adding stud left tackle Terron Armstead to a group of absences that includes top wide receiver Michael Thomas, talented kicker Will Lutz, top interior defender David Onyemata, talented center Erik McCoy, starting linebacker Kwon Alexander, and starting defensive end Marcus Davenport, and they’ve yet to put together back-to-back good weeks, so this line favoring them by a full touchdown over the Giants seems a little high. 

The Giants haven’t won a game yet, but they have played their last two games close and  they won the yards per play battle in both, so they could easily be 2-1 right now. We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Giants, as my calculated line has them as 6-point underdogs, but the Saints could be flat again after last week’s big week, like they were in week 2 against Carolina, especially since they are making their home debut in week 4. 

I mentioned this last week a few times, but teams tend to let their guard down in a home opener in week 3 or later and tend not to cover the spread, doing so only about 36.4% of the time. That could easily be the case for a team that will be exhausted from spending the first month of the season on the road, battling injuries, coming off of a big win, and facing a winless opponent that has come close in back-to-back weeks. This isn’t a big play, but the Giants are worth betting if you can get a full touchdown.

New Orleans Saints 17 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at New York Giants (0-2)

This line favors the Giants by a field goal at home, suggesting these two teams are about even, but I think this line is off and the Giants are the better team. Their biggest weakness is their offensive line, which might be the worst in the league, but the Falcons are among the least equipped teams to take advantage of that, with one of the worst pass rushes in the league, as part of a terrible overall defense. If the Giants can control the line of scrimmage at least somewhat, they should be able to move the ball with ease in this game, with Daniel Jones supported by an improved skill position group from a year ago. 

Jones is an underrated quarterback because he played a brutal schedule last season (nine matchups against top-10 defenses in his first ten games), before suffering a hamstring injury that limited him severely and would have kept many quarterbacks out for several weeks. Jones then started this season with back-to-back tough defenses in the Broncos and Washington, but now he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league and should be able to have a strong game, coming off one of the best games of his career in a near loss against Washington’s defense.

The Giants also have a solid defense and are overall a much more well rounded team than the Falcons, who don’t do anything particularly well, with even their once solid passing game taking a hit this year with Julio Jones gone and Matt Ryan seemingly on the decline at least a little bit. Add in that the Giants have extra rest off of Thursday Night Football and there is enough here to bet on them confidently as long as this line doesn’t exceed a field goal.

New York Giants 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium