Patriots

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2015 AFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (13-4)

The Patriots lost in Denver earlier this year, but the Patriots were without leading wide receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and also lost top receiving threat Rob Gronkowski and talented linebacker Dont’a Hightower with injuries in that game. Even still, the Patriots were leading 21-7 in the 4th quarter and likely would have won if not for a phantom holding call around the goal line and a muffed punt by Chris Harper, who was only returning punts because both Edelman and Amendola were out.

Despite very nearly winning, the Patriots did not move the ball well in that game, as they moved the chains at a 59.38% rate (as opposed to 69.23% for the Broncos). Two of New England’s touchdowns came on drives where they started with great field position, while the other one came on a long touchdown reception by backup running Brandon Bolden out of the backfield. That’s despite the fact that the Broncos were down DeMarcus Ware and then lost safety TJ Ward to injury in that game. Ware and Ward are keys on a Denver defense that finished the season 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed and both will play in this one, though talented cornerback Chris Harris could be limited with a serious shoulder injury.

However, as talented as Denver is defensively, the Patriots should have more offensive success in this one with key players returning from injury. In the 9 regular season games Julian Edelman played, the Patriots moved the chains at a 79.81% rate, as opposed to 65.42% in their other 7 regular season games. Last week, with Edelman healthy for the first time in 2 months, they moved the chains at an 82.76% rate against a solid Kansas City defense. That’s not all Edelman, as the Patriots have also gotten other players back from injury that missed time during that 7 game stretch (Gronkowski, Amendola, Sebastian Vollmer, Josh Kline, etc), but there’s no denying that he’s such a huge part of their offense and they’re a different team when he’s out there, one that’s much better than Denver.

The Broncos finished the regular season 11th in rate of moving the chains differential and then had an underwhelming home victory against the very banged up Pittsburgh Steelers in their first playoff game last week. Just 3 of Denver’s wins this season have come by more than a touchdown so their record is kind of a farce. Their defense is incredible, but they have major problems offensively, finishing the regular season 30th in rate of moving the chains. Peyton Manning, by most measures, was the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots were one of the best teams in the NFL before injuries struck and are now relatively. They’re far more well-rounded than the Broncos. We know about their offense when everyone is healthy, but their defense is strong too, arguably stronger than any Patriots defense since 2007, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed.

Teams tend to cover in the playoffs in a same season, same site, non-divisional rematch against a team that beat them previously anyway, going 31-15 ATS since 2001. On top of that, the Patriots themselves tend to cover in same season revenge games in the Bill Belichick era (since 2000), going 14-5 ATS in those type of games over that time period. All this being said, I can’t put money on New England as 3.5 point road favorites, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. For that reason, this is only a low confidence pick, though if the line drops before gametime, I’ll definitely reconsider.

New England Patriots 24 Denver Broncos 17

Pick against spread: New England -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: 2015 AFC Divisional Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)

This one’s tough. The Patriots should be able to cover this 5 point spread at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have famously won 11 straight games since a 1-5 start, but who did they beat over that time period? Buffalo? Denver when Manning had a bad foot? Houston? Meanwhile, during their 1-5 start, they lost to the likes of Denver (with a healthier Manning), Green Bay, Cincinnati, Minnesota, all playoff teams. They’re a solid team and rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but I don’t really like their chances of winning a road playoff game against a tough team and making a deep run, especially since teams are 11-21 ATS in the playoffs on a winning streak of 7 or more, since 2001.

Their toughest game strength of schedule wise that they won might have been last week in Houston. The final score was 30-0, but that’s a little misleading, as the Chiefs didn’t have an offensive touchdown until JJ Watt got hurt in the 3rd quarter. That win was propelled by a kickoff return touchdown and a +4 turnover margin, two things they won’t be able to count on this week, against an opponent that ended up being pretty weak without the superstar Watt. Kansas City’s offense really seemed to miss talented rookie center Mitch Morse, who will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion this week. Possibly joining him on the sideline this week are top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who hurt his ankle last week, and outside linebacker Justin Houston, a defensive standout who tweaked a knee injury last week that caused him to miss the previous 5 games.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are getting way healthier this week. They’ve played pretty badly in recent weeks, especially struggling on the offensive side of the ball, moving the chains at a 65.42% rate in the past 7 games, as opposed to 79.81% in the first 9 games of the season. That timeline coincides with when top wide receiver Julian Edelman went down with a broken foot, but he makes his return this week after more than 2 months.

It wasn’t just Julian Edelman getting hurt, as Edelman, running back Dion Lewis, running back LeGarrette Blount, wide receiver Danny Amendola, tight end Rob Gronkowski, tight end Scott Chandler, guard Josh Kline, offensive tackle Nate Solder, offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer, defensive tackle Dominique Easley, defensive end Chandler Jones, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, linebacker Jamie Collins, safety Devin McCourty, and safety Patrick Chung all combined to miss 45 full games over that 7 game stretch (33 offensive, 12 defensive). Amendola, Chandler, Kline, Gronkowski, Collins, McCourty, and Chung all played week 17, while Vollmer, Jones, and Hightower all return this week, along with Edelman. Blount, Lewis, Solder, and Easley are all out for the season, but every team has some amount of injuries right now. They’re in pretty good shape.

However, it’s tough to be too confident in them because we just haven’t seen it from them in a while. It’s a projection that they’re going to be a lot better this week, a good one, but it’s tough to know that everything is just going to go back to the way it was a couple months ago. I also don’t like the feel around this one, with Chandler Jones possibly facing an internal punishment for an off-the-field issue and Rob Gronkowski apparently being more questionable than normal questionable and reportedly getting a pain injection on Thursday in the right knee he injured earlier this season. Add in the fact that home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round and that close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, and it becomes very tough to be too confident in New England covering as 5 point favorites, though they are my pick.

New England Patriots 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: New England -5

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (12-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-10)

The Patriots are traditionally very good off of a loss, going 34-17 ATS all-time off a loss with Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. However, I’m going to go against them this week for three reasons. For one, teams are 81-105 ATS since 1989 off of a road loss in overtime, 60-85 ATS if we exclude road underdogs in their 2nd of two road games. The Patriots lost in New York against the Jets in overtime last week. Two, the Patriots also traditionally struggle to cover the spread as double digit favorites, going 9-16 ATS when favored by 10 or more points since 2008.

The Patriots are favored by too many points anyway, the third reason I’m going against them. The Patriots are favored by 10 points. They rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 31st for the Dolphins, but they are so banged up right now. They’re not the same team that started the season 10-0 and won’t resemble that team until maybe their first playoff game in 2 weeks. Defensive tackle Dominique Easley, running back LeGarrette Blount, left tackle Nate Solder, and running back Dion Lewis are all out for the season, while right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, defensive end Chandler Jones, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, linebacker Jonathan Freeny, and wide receiver Julian Edelman have already been ruled out for this one. On top of that, safety Devin McCourty, wide receiver Danny Amendola, and safety Patrick Chung are all likely going to be game-time decisions. I can’t be confident going against New England, but I’m taking Miami.

New England Patriots 24 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Miami +10

Confidence: None

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (12-2) at New York Jets (9-5)

The Patriots are favored by 3.5 points in New York against the Jets this week. That doesn’t make sense, as it suggests the Patriots would be about 9 or 9.5 point favorites if this game were played in New England. The Patriots were favored by 9 points in New England when these two met there earlier this season, but the line didn’t make sense then either and I took the Jets for a big play. The Jets covered and, though the Patriots ended up winning by a touchdown, the Jets were covering for most of the game and matched the Patriots much more evenly than the line suggested, actually winning the rate of moving the chains differential battle 77.14% to 76.67%.

On the season, they’re also much more evenly matched than this line suggests. The Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Jets are right behind them in 6th and have been playing great football since getting center Nick Mangold and cornerback Darrelle Revis both back from injury, as those are two of their best players. It might not have seemed that way last week, when they only won by a field goal in Dallas, but that was on the road, which is always significantly tougher than at home, and they could have won by significantly more if they didn’t miss an extra point, a makeable field goal, and get stuffed on 4th and inches near the goal line early in the game. They won the rate of moving the chains battle 68.75% to 57.14%.

The Patriots are also much more banged up this time around, while the Jets have remained one of the healthiest teams in the league all season. Running backs Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount have since been lost for the season for the Patriots, while wide receiver Julian Edelman, tight end Rob Gronkowski, guard Josh Kline, middle linebacker Dont’a Hightower, wide receiver Danny Amendola, and safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are all dealing with injuries.

In an ordinary week, the majority of them would play, but this game isn’t super important to the Patriots, as they need to win just one of their next two games (against the Jets and Dolphins) or have the Bengals lose in Denver, where they are underdogs this week, to clinch the #1 seed in the AFC. For the Jets, this is do or die as they basically need to win out to even make the playoffs. I’m going to take the 3.5 points at home with the slightly inferior, but healthier team in a game that means more to them, especially since the public is all over the Patriots. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.

New York Jets 20 New England Patriots 19 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-10) at New England Patriots (11-2)

The Titans rank just 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have been pretty solid offensively, outside of the 2 games that talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota missed with injury. In those 2 games, they moved the chains at a 53.57% rate, as opposed to 72.78% in Mariota’s 11 starts. The Titans have more injuries around the quarterback now than they’ve had all season though. Cornerback Jason McCourty obviously remains out for the season and wide receiver Kendall Wright, safety Da’Norris Searcy, and wide receiver Kendall Wright are all out as well, all key contributors.

The Patriots are pretty banged up too though. Getting tight end Rob Gronkowski back from injury last week was huge and linebacker Dont’a Hightower and guard Josh Kline are expected back this week from 2 and 1 game absences respectively, but offensive tackle Nate Solder and running back Dion Lewis are out for the season, with running back LeGarrette Blount and defensive tackle Dominique Easley joining them after going down last week. Also going down last week was safety Devin McCourty, who is expected to miss this game with a high ankle sprain. On top of that, Julian Edelman will miss his 5th straight game with a foot injury. This line is probably too high at 14.

The Lions are helped by the fact that they are in their 2nd of two road games though. Teams are 126-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 103-63 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-222 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.45 points per game, as opposed to 317-433 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.75 points per game. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Titans, but they should be able to keep this one within 2 touchdowns.

New England Patriots 31 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +14

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-2) at Houston Texans (6-6)

The Patriots are 33-17 ATS off of a loss when Tom Brady starts and they haven’t lost 3 straight since 2003. The problem is that the public is all over New England. They seem to rightfully see New England’s loss last week at home against the Eagles for the fluke that it was, a game in which the Patriots lost by a touchdown despite allowing 3 return touchdowns and going 1 of 3 on onside kick attempts. The Patriots moved the chains at a 73.81% rate, as opposed to 68.00% for the Eagles, and if a few things that almost never happen didn’t happen, the Patriots would have likely won by double digits. With the Patriots getting healthier this week, the public can’t see the Patriots not winning by more than 5 and covering this 4.5 point spread.

However, close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less so this could be a close game much more easily than the public seems to think. The standard adjustment for homefield advantage is about 2.5-3 points, so this line suggests that the Patriots would be favored by about 10 or 10.5 over the Texans in New England. Considering the Eagles were just +9 last week, that doesn’t make much sense. I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

New England is healthier, with linebacker Jamie Collins going into his 2nd game back from an illness, defensive tackle Dominique Easley returning, and tight end Rob Gronkowski likely to suit up following a one game absence, after practicing with the team Thursday and Friday and making the trip on Saturday. But they’re far from full strength. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower did not travel with the team, so he’ll miss his 2nd straight game, wide receiver Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis are obviously still out, and, while Gronkowski is expected to play, he could be used in a limited fashion just two weeks after he hyperextended and bruised his knee. Guard Josh Kline is also out.

The Texans are much closer to 100%. They don’t have anyone listed as anything less than probable this week and their only key player on injured reserve is running back Arian Foster, who he barely played this season, totaling just 390 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches. Defensive end JJ Watt broke his hand in practice this week, but he’s expected to play and, as Jason Pierre-Paul has shown, hands aren’t the most important thing for defensive linemen. The Texans rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential and, with outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and cornerback Kareem Jackson now healthy, they’re as talented a team as that suggests in a league that seems to be less talented across the board this season. I don’t love going against New England this week, but this is just too many points.

New England Patriots 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +4.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Eagles, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at New England Patriots (10-1)

The Eagles have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 90-31, dropping them out of 1st place in the weak NFC East and raising questions about whether or not head coach Chip Kelly will return next season. However, the fact that the Eagles are coming off of back-to-back blowout losses is actually good news for their chances to cover this week, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Teams are 49-32 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses of 20 points or more.

It makes sense if you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed off of such a poor stretch. They might not be overlooked by a New England team that is 33-16 ATS off of a loss in Tom Brady’s starts throughout his career, but they could definitely be embarrassed and I do think they’re undervalued. It also hurts the Patriots that they lost in overtime on the road, as those types of losses tend to be tougher to bounce back from. Teams are 30-57 ATS since 2002 off of a road overtime loss, unless they are road underdogs, which the Patriots aren’t this week.

Going back to the Eagles being undervalued, they are 9.5 point underdogs this week in New England. The Patriots rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Eagles rank 24th, but the Patriots are too banged up to be favored by this many points against the Eagles. The reason they are is because the public thinks the Eagles are awful, which isn’t true. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and they’re on the Patriots here. I think fading makes sense. The Patriots are missing running back Dion Lewis, wide receiver Julian Edelman, and tight end Rob Gronkowski with injury.

The Gronkowski injury is the newest and the biggest of the bunch. In games where Gronk plays over the past 5 years (since Gronk’s 2011 breakout year), Tom Brady completes 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.81 YPA, 142 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions, including playoffs. When Gronk doesn’t play, over that stretch of time, Brady completes 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. That’s a significant dropoff in production and there’s enough sample size on both sides to confidently attribute a lot of the difference in Brady’s production to the big tight end. Linebacker Jamie Collins is expected back from a 4 game absence this week, but fellow linebacker Dont’a Hightower could be out. The Eagles, meanwhile, get quarterback Sam Bradford and left tackle Jason Peters back from injury, both of whom were missed over the past 2 games, particularly the latter, one of the top left tackles in the NFL.

It also helps the Eagles that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 125-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 102-62 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. I like the Eagles this week, but could only put money on them if the line moved to 10. About 6% of games are decided by exactly 10 points and the Patriots are just 7-12 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +9.5

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-0) at Denver Broncos (8-2)

This line was 5.5 a week ago on the early line, in favor of New England in Denver, but now New England is only favored by a field goal. I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play and where these two teams rank in rate of moving the chains differential suggests that New England should be favored by at least a little bit more than this, as the undefeated Patriots rank 2nd and Denver ranks 14th.

However, the Patriots are so banged up right now. After losing Dion Lewis for the season with a torn ACL 3 weeks ago and Julian Edelman for the regular season with a broken foot 2 weeks ago, Danny Amendola went down with a knee sprain last week against the Bills, a big loss considering he was having a great game in Edelman’s absence before he went down. Amendola’s injury is far less serious than the other two, but he’s considered a gametime decision at best for this game.

Even if he does play, the Patriots’ offense really didn’t seem the same without Lewis and Edelman last week at home against the Bills. Going to Denver to play the Broncos, who might have the best defense in the NFL, isn’t going to be any easier. And if Amendola is out, the Patriots would be left with Brandon LaFell, Chris Harper, and Keshawn Martin as their top-3 wide receivers. They obviously still have tight end Rob Gronkowski, but he becomes a lot easier to cover if there isn’t anyone else on the field you have to worry about one-on-one. On the defensive side of the ball, key linebacker Jamie Collins is expected to miss his 4th straight game, as he recovers from an illness.

The Broncos do have some injuries of their own, as outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware will miss his 3rd straight game and guard Evan Mathis is expected to be a gametime decision, but their injuries are nowhere near as debilitating as the Patriots’ injuries. And, of course, quarterback Peyton Manning is out with a foot injury, but he was playing so poorly before the injury that backup Brock Osweiler is an upgrade for an offense that hasn’t really been able to do much to support their dominant defense thus far this season. Osweiler probably isn’t anything more than a competent quarterback at this stage in his development, but he showed enough in the first start of his career last week in Chicago to suggest he’s an upgrade over the aging Manning and someone who gives the Broncos the best chance to win now. Because of that and the Patriots injuries, the line movement down to a field goal is legitimate.

The Broncos are also in a great spot, with a trip to San Diego on deck. They’re expected to be 6 point favorites, according to the early line, and teams are 73-52 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 6+. On top of that, home underdogs are 74-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites, since 2002. I don’t really love the Broncos in this one or anything, but we’re getting a field goal with them and close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I’m confident enough to put money on the Broncos.

Denver Broncos 17 New England Patriots 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at New England Patriots (9-0)

Ordinarily, I would be all over the Patriots here. They should be favored by more than 7.5 points at home against the Bills, as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank 21st. They’re also in a great spot, as they will be favored by 5.5 points (according to the early line) in Denver next week. Teams are 71-49 ATS before being road favorites of 4+, 43-29 ATS before being road favorites of 6+, and 29-13 ATS before being road favorites of 7+, since 2012.

However, the Patriots are so banged up that it’s hard to trust them. A week after losing running back Dion Lewis for the season with a torn ACL, the Patriots lost wide receiver Julian Edelman for likely the rest of the regular season with a broken foot last week. Those guys are such a big part of their offense that they’re almost certainly going to struggle to move the ball as well as they have thus far this season. Danny Amendola should be able to play decently in a larger role in Edelman’s absence, but he won’t be able to nearly replace both Edelman and Lewis by himself.

They obviously still have Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but they need a 2nd and 3rd option to step up in the passing game. They get offensive tackles Sebastian Vollmer and Marcus Cannon back from injury this week, but they’re still missing left tackle Nate Solder for the year. And, on the defensive side, top linebacker Jamie Collins is out for the 3rd straight game. I’m still taking New England, but I can’t bring myself to put any money on them unless the line goes under a touchdown.

New England Patriots 30 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at New York Giants: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (8-0) at New York Giants (5-4)

The Giants have a winning record, but this line might not be high enough at 7.5. The Giants are not nearly as good as their record, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, largely as a result of a defense that ranks 30th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Injuries have ravaged a group that wasn’t very talented to begin with. Middle linebacker Jon Beason is out for the season. Cornerback Prince Amukamara remains out. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul returned last week, but it’s still unclear how effective he can be after blowing off part of his hand in the off-season. On top of that, the Giants lost talented defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins for the season last week.

The Giants have had success in the win/loss column this season, largely because of a +12 turnover margin, but that kind of thing is very tough to count on every week. The correlation between a team’s turnover margin in one game and its turnover margin in the next game is virtually non-existent. Even if that wasn’t true, their odds of being able to force multiple turnovers against a New England team that has 5 all season aren’t very good. The Giants are going to have a very hard time getting the Patriots off the field. They rank 1st in the league in rate of moving the chains and 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential.

It does help the Giants that the Patriots’ offense is really banged up. Running back Dion Lewis is out for the season and their top 3 offensive tackles, Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, and Marcus Cannon are also out for this one, leaving the Patriots with a very weak offensive line and without their top checkdown option. However, the Giants’ defense is so weak that it might not matter much. Defensively, the Patriots are expected to get top pass rusher Jabaal Sheard back from a 3 game absence, but talented linebacker Jamie Collins is expected to miss his 2nd straight game with an illness. This line, at the very least, is appropriate, given the talent disparity between these two teams and the ease with which the Patriots should put up points.

The Patriots are also in a good spot, with a home game against the Bills on deck. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. The Patriots are also 52-28 ATS in the Bill Belichick era against a team that beat them in their previous matchup, as the Giants did in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2011 season. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Patriots, especially with the public all over them and the Patriots’ injury situation looming larger than it has all season, but they should be able to put up a bunch of points and cover this spread.

New England Patriots 34 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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