Rams

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Los Angeles Rams (7-4)

The Rams were 7-1 a few weeks ago and were adding even more talent, acquiring edge defender Von Miller and wide receiver Odell Beckham at the trade deadline. However, since then, the Rams have lost three straight games to fall to 7-4. What happened? Well, part of it is Miller and Beckham have not contributed in a huge way, still learning the playbook and dealing with lingering injuries, and, at the same time, the Rams have also had players who were key to their 7-1 start suffer injuries as well, with wide receiver Robert Woods going down for the season and quarterback Matt Stafford playing at less than 100%.

Part of it is also that the Rams have faced a tough schedule, as the Titans, Rams, and Packers are all likely to be playoff teams. That schedule gets a lot easier this week, with the Jaguars coming to town. Even without Woods and with Stafford playing at less than 100%, we are still getting a little bit of line value with the Rams at -13, as my calculated line has the Rams as 14-point favorites, with both Beckham and Miller likely to have bigger roles this season, albeit with the former still playing through injury. 

However, that isn’t nearly enough line value to take the Rams with any confidence and, in fact, I am actually going to take the Jaguars for pick ‘em purposes, as the Rams are in a bad spot. The Rams need a win so they might not be unfocused, but they may also see this as an easy get right spot, when in reality, they need to play better than they have to win this game easily. Making that more likely is that the Rams have to turn around and face the Cardinals in a much bigger game next week. Even if they get up big early, they could take their foot off the gas with a bigger game on deck and allow a backdoor cover.

Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 42.7% rate all-time before facing an opponent with a winning percentage that is at least 50% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, which fits the Rams against the 2-9 Jaguars before the 9-2 Cardinals. I can’t take the Jaguars with any confidence either, especially since they will be without their top cornerback Shaq Griffin, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes, as they could take advantage of the Rams looking forward and make this tougher than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 14

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +13

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (7-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)

The Packers’ lost to the Vikings last week, their second loss of the season with Aaron Rodgers under center and their third loss overall, dropping them to 8-3, after a 7-1 start. The Packers have bigger concerns though. Even when they were winning games, they weren’t doing so in impressive fashion. Just three of their wins came by more than 10 points and those came in games in which they were down at halftime at home to the winless Lions, outgained at home on a per play basis by Washington, and facing an underwhelming Seahawks team that was starting a much less than 100% Russell Wilson. 

The Packers did go into Arizona and win, but they were very reliant on the turnover margin in that game, losing the first down rate battle by 5.93%, but winning by a field goal in a game in which they won the turnover battle by three. One of those turnovers was a late interception to seal the game when the Cardinals were in range to at least send the game to overtime, if not win outright. The Packers scored off the Cardinals’ other two takeaways too, so if any one of those turnovers doesn’t happen, the Packers could have easily lost. Given how inconsistent turnover margins are on a week-to-week basis, the Packers can’t count on that again and, given that the Cardinals outperformed the Packers in other key metrics, the Cardinals would likely win a rematch more often than not, so even that was not a dominant win.

On top of that, the Packers injury situation seems to get worse by the week. Already without left tackle David Bakhtiari, edge defender Za’Darius Smith, and cornerback Jaire Alexander, three of the best players in the league at their respective positions, who have missed all of most of the season, the Packers will now be without Kevin King, their best cornerback in Alexander’s absence, even if only by default, and Elgton Jenkins, a talented offensive lineman who has been by far their best offensive lineman in Bakhtiari’s absence. 

The Packers could get back Rashan Gary, their best edge defender in Smith’s absence, and top running back Aaron Jones, who both missed last week and seem likely to return this week, but even that isn’t a guarantee and, even if both played, their return would be offset by the loss of Jenkins and King. That doesn’t even include the injury that Aaron Rodgers is playing through, which is costing him valuable practice time and likely limiting him in games as well.

The Rams have a similar record to the Packers, but have been a much better team. They lost their last two games before the bye week, both by multiple scores, but in one game they threw multiple pick sixes, which won’t happen every week, and in the other they played a very underrated 49ers team. The Rams should also get a lot more out of mid-season acquisitions Odell Beckham and Von Miller this week, after both played sparingly across the two games before the bye. If both play close to a full set of snaps, the Rams are simply a much more talented team than the very banged up Packers right now.

This line favors the Rams by 2 points in Green Bay, but given the talent disparity between those two teams, my calculated line favors the Rams by 5. I am hesitant to bet heavily against the Packers because of how good Aaron Rodgers has been in his career at home and off of a loss, going 48-22 ATS in home games that he has started and finished and that had live crowds and going 41-21 ATS in the week following a loss, but the Rams are also coming off of a loss and a bye week as well, so they should bring their best effort this week and still worth a small play because of the value we are getting with them in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Green Bay Packers 27

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -2

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5)

The 49ers are just 3-5, but their efficiency ratings are much better than their record, especially when adjusted for their above average schedule. Overall, they rank 7th, 7th, and 13th on offense, defensive, and special teams efficiency, which is more predictive of future winning than wins or points are. The 49ers’ biggest issue has been the turnover margin, as they are tied for 2nd worst in the league at -9, but turnover margin has almost no week-to-week predictability, so the 49ers are not any more than likely than any other team to continue struggling in the turnover margin going forward and, assuming they can play turnover neutral football, they should be a tougher opponent than their record suggests for the foreseeable future.

The 49ers are still not near full strength due to injuries, but I think they are in relatively better injury shape than they have been most of the season, with key players like left tackle Trent Williams, tight end George Kittle, and safety Jimmie Ward all in expected to be in the lineup this week, the first time they have all played in the same game since week 4. The 49ers are coming off of their worst game of the season, losing at home to the Cardinals led by a backup quarterback, but Ward didn’t play in that game and it’s very possible the 49ers just looked past the Cardinals with this game on deck. The Rams didn’t have a good week either last week and yet this line shifted in San Francisco’s favor, moving from Rams -3 on the early line last week to -4 this week, a significant shift given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

The Rams are obviously one of the top teams in the league, especially with Von Miller coming in to give them a boost on defense at the edge defender spot and Odell Beckham giving them a replacement for the injured Robert Woods, but the 49ers are much better than their record and too good to be getting 4 points at home in this game, especially with Beckham unlikely to play a full snap count in his first game with the team. My calculated line is even, so we’re getting significant line value with this line being on the other side of 3, with about 1 out of 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer. The 49ers are good enough to pull this upset at home and even if they don’t, I like their chances of keeping this close enough to cover the spread. This is a big play.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +4

Confidence: High

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-1)

A week ago, this line favored the Rams by 4.5 on the early line, but the line has since shifted to 7.5 points. Normally I like to fade significant week to week line movements like this, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week or play, but, given the circumstances, that movement seems warranted, as the Titans lost feature back Derrick Henry for an extended period of time with an injury, while the Rams added talented edge defender Von Miller from the Broncos in a trade. 

We are getting a little bit of line value with the Titans, as the Rams have been a little overrated in recent weeks and my calculated line has the Titans at +7, but there is too much injury uncertainty on both sides to take either side confidently right now. The Rams will get left tackle Andrew Whitworth back from a one-game absence this week, but their newest addition Von Miller is not a lock to play with an injury of his own, while quarterback Matt Stafford and starting wide receiver Robert Woods didn’t practice all week. Stafford is expected to play, but may not be 100%, while Woods seems legitimately questionable and would likely be limited if he did play.

On the Titans’ side, they’ll get starting wide receiver Julio Jones back this week, but they could be without fellow starting wide receiver AJ Brown, while left tackle Taylor Lewan is questionable to return from a two-game absence. With key players truly questionable on both sides (Miller and Woods for the Rams and Lewan and Brown for the Titans) it’s hard to pick either side confidently and my final pick will almost definitely come down to who has the better final injury report. Either way, I don’t see myself betting this game unless the final injury report is really skewed in favor of one team or another and the line doesn’t move. I’m taking the Titans now for a no confidence pick, but I will almost definitely be doing an update on this before gametime.

Update: Brown and Woods are both expected to play, but we don’t have confirmation on Lewan and Miller yet. If Miller plays and Lewan doesn’t, I may change this pick to the Rams, but it would be a no confidence pick either way.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +7.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (6-1) at Houston Texans (1-6)

The Texans were expected by most to be one of, if not the worst team in the league this season. They threw some people off the scent of how terrible they were by winning week one, but that was because veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor played a great game and because the Texans were facing a Jaguars team that also ended up showing themselves to be one of the worst teams in the league. The Texans were tied with the Browns the following week at halftime, but lost Taylor to an injury and have completely bottomed out since, with raw rookie quarterback Davis Mills under center, supported by probably the worst roster in the league on both sides of the ball.

Overall, the Texans have been outscored 138-46 since Mills took over the starting job and that’s even worse if you take out a 25-22 loss to the Patriots in a game in which the Patriots were missing most of their offensive line but still won the first down rate battle by 8.67%. Their other four full games with Mills have been losses by an average score of 27.3 points. Also missing left tackle Laremy Tunsil, arguably their best player, the Texans are 14 points below average in my roster rankings and even that might underestimate how bad they are right now.

Despite that, we are actually getting some line value with the Texans as 16-point home underdogs against the Rams, as my calculated line has the Texans as 15-point underdogs. Favoring a team by 15 or 16 points is kind of splitting hairs, but the Rams are holding out their top offensive linemen Andrew Whitworth with injury in this game, which could easily hurt their ability to win by three scores or more, and the Rams are in a bad spot as well, with a much tougher game against the Titans on deck. Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 42.6% rate all-time before facing an opponent who has a winning percentage over 50% higher than their current opponent. I can’t have any confidence in the Davis Mills led Texans unless I have a very good reason to, but they are my pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Houston +16

Confidence: None

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-6) at Los Angeles Rams (5-1)

The Lions are 0-6, but they aren’t usually getting blown out and, in fact, their -63 point differential isn’t even the worst in the league, as the Dolphins (-78) and Texans (-80) are both worse. On average, their losses have come by an average of 10.5 points per game, but even that makes it seem like they’ve been blown out more than they have been, as four of their six losses have been kept within 10 points, while one of their two losses by more than 10 points came in a game in which the Lions led the Packers at halftime in Green Bay. Detroit’s defense has been horrendous, but defense is the less predictive side of the ball, while their offense ranks 12th in first down rate and 6th when schedule adjustments are taken into account.

The Lions’ only real blowout loss came last week against the Bengals, who beat them by 23 points in what was easily Detroit’s worst game of the season. Normally betting on teams coming off their worst game of the season tends to be a winning proposition as you can get good value. That is somewhat the case in this matchup, as the Lions are underdogs of 16 points, while my calculated line has this game at Los Angeles -12. 

That’s not a ton of line value though and there is one thing that gives me pause in putting any confidence in the Lions this week, which is Sean McVay’s familiarity with his former quarterback Jared Goff. McVay got the most out of Goff for years and knows the quarterback’s weaknesses and tendencies better than anyone in the league, possibly even Goff himself. I’m still taking the Lions for pick ‘em purposes purely on value, but I can’t have any confidence in them and their best path to covering will likely be through a backdoor cover after getting down by more than the spread total early, which is definitely something the Lions have proven capable of this season.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit +16.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)

This line shifted from favoring the Rams by 6.5 points on the early line to now favoring them by 9 this week, crossing the key number of 7, a margin which decides about 10% of games. That shift is likely primarily due to the Rams winning by 9 in Seattle and the Giants losing by 24 in Dallas, but it’s hard to put much stock into the final score of either of those games because both games featured a quarterback getting injured and leaving the game at a time the game was much closer. In the Rams case, they were up just 9-7 in the third quarter and the Seahawks had the ball when Russell Wilson suffered a finger injury that hampered him before knocking him out of the game, while the Giants had played the Cowboys to a 10-10 tie in the second quarter when Daniel Jones left with a concussion and did not return. 

Jones is set to return for the Giants this week and, while they will be without top wide receiver Kenny Golladay and featured running back Saquon Barkley, Golladay’s absence should be more than offset by the return of both Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, who missed each of the past two games, while Barkley’s absence alone isn’t enough to move this line as significantly as it did, especially since he hasn’t been 100% all season anyway. I also thought the early line was too high to begin with at 6.5 and, even with the Giants missing key players to injury, my calculated line this week has the Rams favored by just 5.5 points.

The Giants are just 1-4, but two of their losses were very close games that could have been wins, while their loss to the Cowboys could have been a lot closer had the Giants not lost their quarterback in the middle of the game, even though the Cowboys have been one of the best teams in the league thus far. Daniel Jones doesn’t get a lot of respect from the national media, but he played pretty well before suffering a serious hamstring injury last year, when you take into account the brutal schedule he faced and how many drops his receivers had. 

This year, it’s showing up more in the statistics, as he ranks 10th in QBR and 8th in yards per attempt, despite an underwhelming and injury plagued supporting cast. Despite his statistical success, he’s still regarded as barely better than a replacement level quarterback, with this line only shifting about 1.5 points when it became clear that Jones would be able to play this week, even though backup Mike Glennon looked like a clear downgrade last week. The Giants have an underwhelming roster overall and Jones’ play hasn’t translated to wins, but they’ve been competitive in all but one of their games with Jones healthy and they should be able to keep this one relatively close. This isn’t a big play, but this line is inflated.

Los Angeles Rams 27 New York Giants 21

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +9

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

The Rams got off to an impressive 3-0 start, capped by a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they lost at home last week to another impressive team, the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks, meanwhile, bounced back from two straight losses to win in San Francisco last week, a quality win on the road. Despite that, this line has shifted from favoring the Rams by 1.5 points a week ago up to 2.5 points this week. That’s not a significant shift, but it’s a shift away from what you would expect based on last week’s results.

One possible reason for the shift is that Seahawks running back Chris Carson will likely be out, or at least limited, but the Seahawks will get right tackle Brandon Shell back, which somewhat cancels that out because the Seahawks have better running back depth than offensive tackle depth. The Seahawks also have been close to an automatic bet on Thursday Night in the Russell Wilson era, going 9-0-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS at home. 

I normally don’t put too much stock into those types of things, but the Seahawks have had the same coach and quarterback throughout that stretch, so it’s possible they just prepare better on short weeks. I would need a full field goal to bet the Seahawks against the spread, as my calculated line is even, but this is no worse than a 50/50 bet on the money line, so the Seahawks are worth a play at +120.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)

The Rams are getting all of the attention for their 3-0 start, but the Cardinals have been equally impressive, if not more so, actually ranking slightly higher overall than the Rams in more predictive metrics. Despite that, the Rams are being favored by 4 points at home as if they are a significantly better team. Even if these two teams are about even, the Rams should be favored by no more than a field goal. That might not seem like a big difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and the Rams also aren’t in a great spot either. 

I know this is a matchup of undefeated divisional rivals, but the Rams have beaten the Cardinals 8 straight times since Sean McVay arrived and this game in sandwiched between their big win over the Buccaneers last week and a short week against the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football (favorites cover at a 41.9% rate before a Thursday game), so this could be a little bit of a trap game for the Rams, especially since they are expected to win relatively easily, despite their opponents also being one of the top teams in the league. I don’t put much stock in the recent matchups between these teams because this is a different Cardinals team, so there is enough here for me to take the Cardinals for a small play. The most likely results of this game are either team winning by 3 or winning by 1 and all four of those results would cover this spread.

Los Angeles Rams 24 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against the spread: Arizona +4

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)

Both of these teams are 2-0 and this is being billed as a potential NFC Championship matchup, but I think the Buccaneers have a much better chance of making that game and are the much better team. While the Buccaneers are a dominant team with the league’s top roster and a 10-game winning streak (with a margin of victory of 11.2 points per game, even including four playoff games), the Rams are a little overrated. 

The Rams obviously improved their offense this off-season by adding Matt Stafford, but I don’t expect the Rams’ defense to have quite as good of a season as a year ago, which usually gets left out of the discussion with the Rams, in favor of focusing on how much better their offense is. I thought they were overrated coming into the season and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind yet. The Rams did win easily against the Bears week one, but the Bears are one of the worst teams in the league and that game could have been a lot closer if not for key mistakes by the Bears, including not touching a receiver down, a blown coverage, and a goal line interception and then the Rams followed that win up by barely beating a banged up Colts team. 

The Buccaneers are favored by 1.5 points in this matchup in Los Angeles, but they should be favored by at least a field goal, given that there is still a significant gap between these two teams. The fact that this line is lower than a field goal is relevant for a couple reasons, given how automatic of a bet Tom Brady’s teams have been throughout his career in games where he isn’t a significant favorite, as Brady is 57-26 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of less than 2.5. 

That’s a consistent trend that has held up for decades as Brady has consistently brought his best for big games and his teams have usually followed suit (including a 5-1 ATS record with the Buccaneers last season). It’s possible the Buccaneers are a little distracted by their big matchup with the Patriots next week, but this game is more important in the long run because of playoff seeding implications, so I would expect the Buccaneers to be fully focused this week, even with the Patriots on deck. In a game they basically just need to win to cover, they should be a good bet this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Los Angeles Rams 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -1.5

Confidence: High