Ravens

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

I’m glad the Ravens made the playoffs. If San Diego had been able to beat the Chiefs, it would have eliminated the Ravens, regardless of what the Ravens did in their game against the Browns, and they would have missed the playoffs despite finishing the season ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.62%. Even when you adjust that for their weaker schedule, they still come in 4th among playoff teams at 4.94%, only behind consensus top teams Denver, Seattle, and New England. The Ravens went 10-6 despite a 2-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, finished 5th in DVOA, and their +107 point differential was 6th among playoff teams, so they definitely fit in among some of the best in the NFL.

The Ravens also come into the playoffs as the 4th hottest teams, ranking 4th in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential among playoff teams at 10.56%, only behind Seattle, Carolina, and Dallas. However, that’s a little skewed because the Ravens faced back-to-back 3rd string quarterbacks against Houston and Cleveland and even schedule adjusted differential doesn’t take injuries into account. Their defense accounted for 11.09% of that, while their offense fared below average given their competition at -0.53%.

Their defensive performance was still very impressive even when you remember that they faced Case Keenum and Connor Shaw in back-to-back weeks and their defense gets an added boost this week, as Haloti Ngata returns from injury, but that offense is a concern, especially since the Ravens figure to be without both starting tackles Eugene Monroe and Ricky Wagner once again in this one. Both of them missed the Ravens’ uninspiring week 17 offensive performance against the Browns. Wagner is on injured reserve and Monroe didn’t practice all week.

Wagner has been the better of the two this season, as Monroe struggled in the first season of his big contract, but both of their backups are significant downgrades and won’t help an offense that’d already been stagnating over the past month or so. More bad news for the Ravens, they’ve been significantly better at home than on the road this season. At home, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.91% rate, as opposed to 67.26% for their opponents (a differential of 10.65%), while they’ve moved the chains at a 73.91% rate on the road, as opposed to 72.97% for their opponents (a differential of 0.94%). This home/road disparity is nothing new as since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 47-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-33, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.04 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9-9.5 points. The Ravens are on the road here.

If the Ravens are going to pull the upset here, their defense is going to have to continue playing well and slow down a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 3rd among playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains. Fortunately, for the Ravens, they aren’t the only ones with serious injury problems as Le’Veon Bell has been ruled out for the Steelers. Bell was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked running back this season, grading out above average as a runner, pass catcher, and blocker.

He rushed for 1361 yards and 8 touchdowns on 290 carries, a 4.69 YPC, caught 83 passes for 854 yards and 3 touchdowns, and played the 2nd most snaps among running backs this season, showing true three down ability and amazing durability. In his absence, the Steelers will use a committee of Josh Harris, Dri Archer, and Ben Tate. Harris and Archer are rookies with 26 combined carries, while Tate has averaged 3.12 yards per carry on 119 carries this season, is on his 4th team this calendar year, just arrived this week, and doesn’t know the offense yet.

It’s about as big of a downgrade as you can get and not good news as the Steelers get set to take on a tough Baltimore defense, led by a punishing front 7 that should be able to stuff the Steelers’ running game, make them one-dimensional, and unleash their pass rushers. The Steelers have a strong offensive line, but the Steelers’ running back situation will hurt their blitz pickup ability and their check down ability in the face of pressure. If the Steelers are going to have a successful day offensively, it’s going to be because Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and Markus Wheaton are able to win one-on-ones against a weak group of Baltimore cornerbacks, which they have a decent chance of doing.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have a good chance of getting their offense back on track, despite missing both of their tackles, because the Steelers have the 2nd worst defense among playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains allowed. They’ve been a little bit better over their past 4 games, playing about league average, and they get Troy Polamalu back this week after he missed week 16 and week 17 (though he hasn’t been that good this season), but it’s still a unit the Ravens can have success against.

The Ravens seem like the right side. They’ve been the better team all season and over the past 4 games, with an edge in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential over both of those time periods (the Steelers have a slight edge over the past 8 games). The Steelers also have the worst injury situation as Le’Veon Bell is significantly more valuable than anyone the Ravens will be without this week. Despite that, we’re getting 3.5 points with the Ravens and the public is on the Steelers. I just can’t be too confident considering the Ravens’ road struggles.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6)

The Browns’ offense ranks 27th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, and they’ve gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on. They’re moving the chains at a pathetic 63.44% rate over the past 10 games since Alex Mack went down. The returns of Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon from injury and suspension respectively haven’t helped matters as both as looked less than 100% after extended absences. In week 13 and 14 combined, Brian Hoyer’s final two starts, they moved the chains at a 58.33% rate, and in week 15 and 16 combined, Johnny Manziel’s first two starts, they moved the chains at a 43.75% rate.

Now undrafted rookie Connor Shaw is expected to start this one, after being called off of the practice squad earlier this week, with both Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel both hurt. Their offense isn’t going to get any better with him under center and it could get even worse. The Browns have a solid defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 70.81% rate, 7th in the NFL, but it’s not enough to make up for their completely stagnant offense. This line is way too low at 9 points as the Browns go into Baltimore.

The Ravens rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.15% rate, as opposed to 70.90% for their opponents, a differential of 5.25%. They’ve been even better at home, moving the chains at a 78.67% rate, as opposed to 68.18% for their opponents, a differential of 10.48%. This home dominance is nothing new as, since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 46-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-33, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.04 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9-9.5 points. The Ravens are 31-25 ATS at home over that time period and, while they’re just 9-13 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more, their home dominance is still worth mentioning.

This line moved from 7 to 9 over the past week, to adjust for the Browns’ terrible showing in Carolina (though the final score was 17-13, the Browns lost the first down battle 27-8) and the fact that Connor Shaw will likely be starting. I normally like to fade significant line movements, but I don’t think the line moved enough nor do I think that it was high enough to begin with, when it was at 7 last week. The reason the line only moved 2 points was because the Ravens lost in Houston last week to the Texans and 4th string quarterback Case Keenum.

I think that’s an overreaction to that loss, which wasn’t quite as bad as the final score suggested. The Ravens’ offense looked horrible, moving the chains at a 56.67% rate, but their defense held the Texans to a 55.88% rate. It’s not a tremendous accomplishment for the defense, considering who the Texans’ quarterback was, but it still suggests that the game was closer than the final score. The Ravens do well off of a big loss in the Harbaugh/Flacco era anyway, going 9-2 ATS since 2008 off of a double digit loss. Last week’s loss was on the road anyway and, as I mentioned earlier, the Ravens are much better at home.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games. This puts them in a good spot. Teams are 113-77 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 196-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.29 points per game, as opposed to 276-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.19 points per game. However, I still like the Ravens’ chances of bouncing back in a big way off of last week’s fluky defeat for all the reasons I outlined earlier.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cleveland Browns 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Ravens, Texans, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) at Houston Texans (7-7)

This line was Houston -1 last week and now it’s Baltimore -6 in Houston. That’s a massive line movement, as it’s moved a full touchdown to compensate for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s injury. That’s a massive overreaction. Fitzpatrick is decent, but the Texans’ offense ranks just 19th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains. Meanwhile, both Case Keenum and Thad Lewis, the two candidates to start in this game, showed some decent flashes last season in brief periods as the starter. They’re downgrades from Fitzpatrick, but they’re not Ryan Lindley.

The Texans still have a solid defense (16th in rate of moving the chains allowed) and do not deserve to be 6 point home underdogs here. If Tom Brady got hurt this week, it don’t think that line would move more than a touchdown (that would put the Patriots at -3 at the Jets). The same thing is true with Aaron Rodgers (that would put Green Bay at -3.5 at Tampa Bay). When Rodgers got hurt last year, the line moved 6 points to compensate the following week. The reason this line moved 7 points instead of something more reasonable like 4 is because the odds makers know the public will still bet this spread no matter how high they put it, as they are doing so here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and this feels like a trap line for the public.

The Ravens rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving them at a 77.46% rate, as opposed to 72.10% for their opponents, a differential of 5.35%. Meanwhile, the Texans come in 23rd, moving them at a 70.66% rate, as opposed to 72.33% for their opponents, a differential of -1.67%. That suggests this line should be about 4 in favor of Baltimore, which suggests that a line of 6 once you’ve taken injuries into account is reasonable, but Baltimore hasn’t been nearly as good on the road this season. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 76.23% rate, as opposed to 75.56% for their opponents, a differential of 0.68% that is 10 percentage points lower than 10.48% differential they have at home this season.

These relative road struggles are nothing new for the Ravens. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 46-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.33 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9 points. Both of these two teams are in a good spot with easy games on deck, Houston with a home game against Jacksonville and Baltimore with a home game against Cleveland, but Houston is in the better spot here as significant home underdogs. Underdogs of 6 or more are 68-57 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 6 or more, while home underdogs of 3 or more are 65-45 ATS since 1989 before being home favorites of 3 or more. The Texans should be the right side here.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Ravens, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

Baltimore is generally very good at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9 points. However, while they are 22-12 ATS as home underdogs or home favorites of 7 or more, they are just 9-12 ATS as home favorites of more than 7.

The Ravens are also in a bad spot as they are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, a situation teams are 78-109 ATS in since 2008. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 123-94 ATS since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The early line of the Ravens’ game in Houston next week is only Houston -1 so the Ravens won’t definitely be underdogs, but the logic still stands. While the Ravens have a much more important game next week on the road against a team still alive in the playoff race, the Jaguars have arguably their easiest game of the season, as they will be favored for the first time all year at home for the Titans.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 19

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +14

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)

The Dolphins are the better of these two teams, but they are only favored by 2.5 here at home (less than the average homefield advantage adjustment of 3). The Dolphins rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75.06% rate, as opposed to 70.69%, a differential of 4.37%. Meanwhile, the Ravens rank 9th, moving the chains at a 77.46% rate, as opposed to 73.92% for their opponents, a differential of 3.54%.

This line is too low even before you take into account that the Ravens aren’t as good on the road as they are at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 33-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.03 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. This season alone, they move the chains at a 74.47% rate on the road, as opposed to 76.50% for their opponents, a differential of -2.03%.

The Dolphins are in a horrible spot though, as they have their toughest game of the season next week, as they head to New England. Meanwhile, the Ravens host the Jaguars next week, which will probably be their easiest game of the season. Non-divisional home favorites are 88-107 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 113-75 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites and teams are 119-96 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008. Combining these two, teams are 103-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m still taking the Dolphins, but I might take the Ravens if the line was 3. It’s that close.

Miami Dolphins 23 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Chargers, Ravens, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

This line is way too low. The Ravens rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.84% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 4.55%. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 15th, moving the chains at a 73.39% rate, as opposed to 72.56% for their opponents, a differential of 0.84%. The Chargers have been especially bad of late, moving the chains at a 68.09% rate since week 7, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -6.10%. They’ve just had so many injuries, the most serious one being to talented rookie cornerback Jason Verrett, who was playing so well before his injury.

The Ravens are significantly better than the Chargers, especially at home. The Ravens move the chains at a 79.52% rate at home this season, as opposed to 65.91% for their opponents, a differential of 13.61%. This home dominance is nothing new. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-10 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.58 points per game, at home, as opposed to 33-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.03 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. It also hurts the Chargers that they are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast. The Ravens should be favored by more than 5.5 here everything considered.

Speaking of the Ravens’ home dominance and the fact that they’re favored by just 5.5 here, the Ravens have done very well at home as underdogs or favorites of 7 or less since that 2008 season, going 22-11 ATS in that situation. The Ravens do have a tough game next week in Miami, where they’ll be underdogs, as non-divisional home favorites are 73-99 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002 However, the Chargers have an even tougher game at home for New England next week. Non-divisional road underdogs are 92-126 ATS before being non-divisional home underdogs since 2002. Going off of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012 and 29-62 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more. In a tough week for games, this is my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 31 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Ravens, Saints, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6)

The Saints have lost back-to-back home games, but that doesn’t completely erase what they’ve historically done at home in recent memory. Before these last two games, they had won 20 straight home games under Sean Payton and they are still 18-3-1 ATS at home over their last 22 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring opponents by an average of about 16.91 points per game. Even just this season at home, they move the chains at an 82.26% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for their opponents, a differential of 6.40%. They’re even better in night games at home, going 13-3 ATS in night games at the Superdome since Drew Brees and Sean Payton arrived all the way back in 2006. They most recently blew out a Green Bay team that has done nothing but put up points in the weeks since.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are not as good on the road and haven’t been for years. While the Ravens are 44-10 at home since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, they are just 32-30 on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.34 points per game. This season, they move the chains at a 72.61% rate on road, as opposed to 75.61% for their opponents, a differential of -3.00%. On top of that, Drew Brees is typically deadly off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline (last week was the exception), going 21-6 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 16-3 ATS at home.

The only reason that this isn’t a bigger play on New Orleans isn’t that I don’t trust the Saints after they’ve burned me in several times on big plays this season. They still have most first downs in the NFL and are much better than their record. We’re finally getting great value with them at home off of those two losses as this line went from 6 to 3 after their loss last week. However, they are in a bad spot with a trip to Pittsburgh on deck, while the Ravens host the Chargers next. Teams are 111-75 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008, while teams conversely are 76-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I still like the Saints a good amount here in a big night game at home.

New Orleans Saints 27 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Ravens, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

The Ravens have lost two straight, but I really like their chances of bouncing back here in a big way for a variety of reasons. For one thing, they’ve historically done very well off of big losses in the John Harbaugh era, going 8-2 ATS off of a loss by 10 more since Harbaugh and Joe Flacco came to town in 2008. They didn’t fare well last week off of a close loss in Cincinnati week 8, but getting blown out in Pittsburgh last week could easily be the wakeup call this well-coached, veteran squad needed to get back on track.

They also return home, where they’ve fared very well since 2008. The Ravens are 44-10 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, at home, as opposed to 32-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.94 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. It also certainly helps that they’re playing a weak opponent, as the 2-6 Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

They rank 31st in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.30% rate, as opposed to 75.44% for their opponents, a differential of -7.14%. They’re also starting a 6th round rookie quarterback in Zach Mettenberger and they got destroyed at home by Houston in his first career start. On the flip side, the Ravens rank 6th, moving the chains at a 76.27% rate, as opposed to 72.32% for their opponents, a differential of 3.95%. As high as this line is at 10, I don’t think it’s high enough.

Speaking of this line being high, the Ravens are in a fantastic spot as big home favorites heading into a bye, as teams are 68-29 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point home favorites going into a bye. Teams in that situation tend to be able to take care of business and then some with no distractions on the horizon. I expect the Ravens to be completely focused coming off of a big loss at home going into a bye and be able to blow out a significantly inferior Tennessee team.

Conversely, the Titans have another tough game against the Steelers on deck, which will serve as a big distractions. The early line for that game is 4.5 in favor of the Steelers on the road in Tennessee. Teams are 57-82 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, including 28-57 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation. This should be a very easy Baltimore win.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Tennessee Titans 9

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -10

Confidence: High

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The Steelers put up 51 points last week in an impressive 51-34 victory over a very good Indianapolis team. However, last week’s performance could easily hurt them this week. Underdogs are 12-27 ATS since 1989 after scoring 40 or more points as underdogs. It makes sense. The Steelers could easily be overconfident this week, which would be really dangerous for them considering the odds makers have deemed them underdogs in back-to-back weeks at home. The odds makers generally have a strong feel for teams, so the Steelers probably aren’t nearly as good as they probably think they are right now. The public also probably thinks they’re better than they are too as they are on the underdog here. I love fading the public, especially when they’re on an underdog. Whenever the public thinks a different team should be favored than the odds makers, it generally is bad news for them.

We’re not really getting any line value with the Ravens. The Ravens have played well this season, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.72% rate, as opposed to 71.19% for their opponents, a differential of 5.53%. The Steelers, however, are also having a solid season in that aspect, ranking 8th, moving the chains at a 76.87% rate, as opposed to 74.10% for their opponents, a differential of 2.76%. That suggests this line should be right about where it is (Baltimore -1). However, if we take into account that last week’s performance by the Steelers was a fluke, we get a little bit more line value, as the Steelers ranked 13th going into last week, with a differential of 0.87%.

The Ravens are also in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. This would probably be more powerful if the Ravens were underdogs here, as teams are 108-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 92-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. However, the Ravens are barely favorites here on the road and going off of that, road favorites are 34-23 ATS off of a road loss since 2008 as long as it’s the 2nd of two road favorites, including 13-7 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as road favorites. The Steelers are also divisional home underdogs in a night game, a situation teams are 30-59 ATS in since 1989.

Both teams have very easy games next week, putting them in good spots. The Ravens host the Titans, while the Steelers head to New York to take on the Jets. The Ravens will almost definitely be at least double digit favorites next week and teams are 69-55 ATS since 2010 before being double digit favorites. The Steelers, meanwhile, will almost definitely be at least field goal favorites next week on the road and teams are 79-54 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 3 or more on the road. These two things cancel out and at the end of the day I like the Ravens a decent amount this week.

Baltimore Ravens 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1)

The Bengals were embarrassed on the road in Indianapolis last week, getting blown out by the final score of 27-0. Now they’re favored to beat the 5-2 Ravens. You should put all your money on Baltimore as underdogs right? Well, that’s ignoring the Bengals’ home dominance and the Ravens’ recent road struggles. Since the start of last season, the Bengals are 10-1-1 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.67 points per game, going 10-2 against the spread. Meanwhile, while the Ravens are 44-10 at home since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, they are just 32-30 on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.34 points per game.

On top of that, the Bengals are in the much better spot as they have a very easy game up next when they host the Jaguars, while the Ravens next play the Steelers. Teams are 46-31 ATS since 2008 as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, a situation that the Bengals fit. On top of that, teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2002.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play on the Bengals. For one, the Ravens are in a big revenge spot as divisional road underdogs are 51-26 ATS against teams that they previously lost to as home favorites that season. Meaning, if two evenly matched divisional opponents meet and the road underdog win, the losing teams usually gets the other team back the next time they play as long as it’s that same season. Not only do they cover about 2/3rds of the time, but they also straight up win half the time, even as underdogs.

The second reason is that, at least this season, the Ravens have been significantly better than the Bengals. The Ravens are moving the chains at a 77.35% rate, as opposed to 70.53% for their opponents, a differential of 6.82% that ranks 3rd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bengals are moving the chains at a 70.65% rate, as opposed to 75.57% for their opponents, a differential of -4.91% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Sure, it was significantly different last season, but both teams have undergone significant changes in their coaching staffs. I’m still going with the Bengals at home though. They’ve moved the chains at a 79.63% rate, as opposed to 73.79% for their opponents, at home this season, which is very good.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -1

Confidence: Medium

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