Saints

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Falcons, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7)

The Falcons delivered the Carolina Panthers their first loss of the season last week, winning 20-13 at home as 7 point underdogs. It was certainly a legitimate win, as they won the rate of moving the chains differential battle 82.14% to 73.08%, but anyone betting them as 5.5 point home favorites here at home over the Saints is probably forgetting the fact that the Falcons lost by 38 in Carolina just a few weeks ago. The Falcons have also lost to the Colts, Vikings, 49ers, Buccaneers (twice), and these Saints in New Orleans, while 6 of their 8 wins have come by a touchdown or less, including near losses to the Jaguars, Titans, Redskins, Eagles, and Giants. They rank just 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, and the Saints are only one spot behind them in 17th, so the Falcons don’t really have any business being favored by 5.5 points here.

There wasn’t an early line posted last week for this game, because Drew Brees’ immediate future looked questionable because of a foot injury, but Brees and the Saints played well last week at home against Jacksonville despite Brees’ injury. If there was an early line listed, I think it probably would have been around 3 or so (where I think it should still be), meaning the line shifted probably 2.5 points or so because of the Falcons’ upset victory last week. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, and, though it might not seem like it, a shift from 3 to 5.5 or so is really significant, considering both 3 and 4 are key numbers. About 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 or fewer points so a backdoor cover is a very strong possibility here, even if the Falcons do manage to significantly outplay the Saints.

It might seem counter-intuitive, but teams are 46-72 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs. For one, home upset victories probably often lead to significant unwarranted line movements. Two, teams can also by pretty overconfident off of victories like that. The Falcons just won their Super Bowl last week and, while the Saints are a big divisional rival, the Falcons could still get caught a little bit off guard by them, especially with the off-season on deck and no hope of making the post-season. The Saints are not going to the post-season either, but they’re still playing hard, following the example of Brees, who is playing through a major foot injury during a lost season and they should be 100% focused for their division rival this week. I’m taking the points with confidence.

Atlanta Falcons 34 New Orleans Saints 31

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-9)

This is another game that I don’t have a strong opinion on. Both of these teams are out of the playoffs and have comparable games on deck; the Saints are going to Atlanta and the Jaguars are going to Houston. The Saints are favored by 3.5, which suggests they’re a slightly better team than the Jaguars. The numbers seem to back that up, if not suggest that the Saints could be favored by a little bit more. The Saints rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Jaguars rank 26th, though the Saints are closer to 26th than they are to 12th, so it’s not as big of a difference as it seems.

Drew Brees will be playing through an injured foot, but he performed well despite that down the stretch against the Lions last week and perhaps Brees playing through that injury in a lost season will give the Saints a motivational boost in an otherwise meaningless contest. The Saints have other players banged up, left tackle Terron Armstead, right tackle Zach Strief, wide receiver Marques Colston, and tight end Benjamin Watson, all of whom are listed as questionable, but the Jaguars will be without running back TJ Yeldon and linebacker Telvin Smith. I’m taking New Orleans, but for a no confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (4-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)

The Saints were favored by just 1.5 points over the Lions on the early line last week, but have since jumped to 3 point favorites, following their upset victory in Tampa Bay and the Lions’ upset loss in St. Louis. That’s a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. Ordinarily, I love to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but it doesn’t really make sense here, as the Saints are a better team, ranking 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 24th for Detroit. This line suggests these two teams are even.

The Lions are helped by the fact that they are in their 2nd of two road games though. Teams are 126-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 103-63 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-222 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.45 points per game, as opposed to 317-433 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.75 points per game. I’m still taking the Saints, but this is a no confidence pick. This game has a high likelihood of a push.

New Orleans Saints 31 Detroit Lions 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Saints 26-19 as 10 point underdogs in New Orleans earlier this year. However, there are two reasons why the Saints could easily get revenge. For one, they’re in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 54-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one. Secondly, the Buccaneers have never had much of a homefield advantage, as they are 18-35 ATS at home since 2009.

The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot, as they are expected to be road underdogs in St. Louis next week, while the Saints will be home favorites against the Lions. Favorites (like the Buccaneers) are 98-167 ATS before being underdogs (as they will be next week), if their opponent will next be favorites (like the Saints will be next week). However, the Buccaneers are only one point underdogs in St. Louis on the early line next week, so they could easily up being road favorites and the logic doesn’t really hold up either way because the Rams aren’t good enough for the Buccaneers to get caught looking forward to them. However, the Buccaneers do have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football and that hurts them, as favorites are 47-70 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. With the Buccaneers favored by 5 points and about 3 in 10 games decided by 4 or fewer points, I’m confident putting money on the Saints.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 New Orleans Saints 30

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (11-0) at New Orleans Saints (4-7)

The Panthers were favored by 3.5 on the early line for this one, but the line has since shifted to 7 in favor of the Panthers. Ordinarily I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements, but I think this line just caught up with how good the Panthers are and how big of a talent disparity there is between the two teams. The Panthers rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Saints rank 21st. The Saints used to have a big homefield advantage, 35-19 ATS at home since 2008 (3-0 ATS as home underdogs), excluding the season when Sean Payton wasn’t coaching, but they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The last time they were at home, they lost in overtime to a Tennessee team that is just 2-9 this season. The magic seems to have disappeared and the Saints should have a lot of trouble with a very good Carolina team. This line is accurate.

With that in mind, I like the Panthers, because they’re in a good spot. They host the Falcons next week, a game they’ll be favored by 8.5 in, and favorites of 6+ or more are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. It makes sense that good teams would be able to take care of business without any upcoming distractions and blow out an inferior opponent. It also helps that they’re in their 2nd of two road games.

Road favorites off of a road win are 44-31 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. There’s not quite enough for me to be confident in the Panthers with the line this high, but they should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Saints, Texans, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Houston Texans (5-5)

The Texans won last week, 24-17 at home against the Jets, to improve their record to 5-5. After a 1-4 start, the Texans are right in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Last week’s win came as home underdogs and teams are 42-71 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs, including 7-20 ATS at home. However, the Texans have moved up to 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and they are a better team than the Saints, who rank 17th. That’s not what this line suggests, as the Texans are just 3 point favorites at home. The Texans also get cornerback Kareem Jackson back from injury, after a 4 game absence.

The Saints also have a tough upcoming game, as they host the Carolina Panthers, a game in which they’re expected to be 4 point home underdogs, according to the early line. That number could jump even higher after the Panthers’ huge win over the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving, which improved them to 11-0. Teams are 77-120 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 44-81 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 23-53 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, as teams tend to get caught looking ahead before such a big home game. I’m not confident in them, but I’m taking the Texans.

Houston Texans 24 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Houston -3

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Washington Redskins (3-5)

Even at 36 years of age, Drew Brees is playing very well. He’s completing 69.6% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while leading an offense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains. Last year they ranked 2nd, but they’re obviously still a very good offense and this year they’re doing it with the likes of wide receiver Willie Snead (41/626/3) and tight end Ben Watson (43/532/3) playing huge roles in the passing game. Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The defense remains weak and has had issues with injuries all year, but they rank 12th overall in rate of moving the chains differential.

However, the Redskins are a decent team, ranking 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and are finally healthy with the likes of cornerback Chris Culliver, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson all playing in this one. The Saints, meanwhile, could be missing talented left tackle Terron Armstead, in addition to more minor losses on the defensive side of the ball (linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, linebacker David Hawthorne, cornerback Damian Swann). It’s hard to back them to win straight up in Washington, so I’m going to fade the public and go with Washington, who also seems to be the sharps’ choice, but I have no confidence. I would need a field goal to take either side.

Washington Redskins 26 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Saints, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

The Titans get Marcus Mariota back this week after he missed the past 2 weeks with a knee injury. The Titans lost both games without him to fall to 1-6 on the season and moved the chains at a 57.41% rate in those 2 games, as opposed to 72.89% in Mariota’s 5 starts. Mariota has played pretty well as a rookie, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.70 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, though it’s unclear how well he’ll play in his return from injury, especially without his top wide receiver Kendall Wright, who is out with an injury.

The Titans’ defense has been their better unit this season, ranking 10th in rate of moving the chains allowed, despite missing one of their two starting cornerbacks (Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox) in 5 of 7 games. McCourty is expected to be out this week, though Cox will return. As a result of the Titans’ solid defensive play, the Titans rank 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, despite missing their starting quarterback and best offensive player for 2 games. The Saints, meanwhile, rank 14th. Given that, this line seems a little high at 8 in favor of the Saints at home, despite the fact that the Saints are healthier than the Titans and healthier than they’ve been pretty much all season.

The Titans are also in their 2nd straight road game, which helps. Teams are 121-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 99-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 208-213 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.50 points per game, as opposed to 296-414 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.97 points per game.

However, they’re also in a bad spot, with a tough game on deck against the undefeated Panthers in Tennessee next week. Teams are 41-80 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4+, 21-52 ATS before being home underdogs of 6+, and 13-30 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+, over that same time period. If the Titans are underdogs of 6+ next week (very possible), it opens up another trend, as underdogs of 6+ are 40-64 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again.

The Saints also have contrasting stuff on their side. On one hand, they’re at home and they have gone 35-18 ATS at home since 2008, excluding the season Sean Payton wasn’t on the sideline. However, they’re also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Additionally, teams are 28-48 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Saints won by a field goal as home favorites against the Giants last week. The Titans seem like the right side as 8 point road underdogs, but there’s not enough here for me to be confident, especially since the Titans just fired their coach. I just don’t know how the Titans will play this week, with their quarterback coming off of a significant injury, their top receiver missing his first game of the season, and the team transitioning to a new head coach without the luxury of a bye week.

New Orleans Saints 24 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +8

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Giants, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-4)

The Saints were only 2 point favorites in this one last week, but, after their upset victory in Indianapolis, this line moved to 3.5, significant, considering 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal. Typically, I like to go against these line movements because I think they’re based on week-to-week overreactions, but, this week, I’m not so sure. The Saints have a worse record than the Giants, but they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 23rd, so we might still be getting line value with the Saints. The Giants have been overly reliant on a +10 turnover margin, which is tough to count on every week. For example, they beat the Cowboys by a touchdown last week because they won the turnover battle by 4, which increases a team’s chances of winning to 95.5%. However, teams that win the turnover battle by 4, on average have a +0.0 turnover margin the following week. They’ll probably have to find a different way to win in this one and they might not find one.

Then again, the Saints aren’t very good so it might not take much to beat them. None of that is enough to take the Saints with any sort of confidence. The Saints are also pretty banged up, missing linebackers David Hawthorne and Dannell Ellerbe and cornerback Keenan Lewis, well paid veteran starters. However, this is true of the Giants too, as they’re missing cornerback Prince Amukamara, wide receiver Victor Cruz, and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. Both teams have struggled with injuries all season though, so there really isn’t any sort of tiebreaker here.

This is the closest game of the week for me, as there isn’t a clear better side at all. The line’s a little off in New Orleans’ favor, but not measurably. Both teams are banged up. They also have similarly easy games on deck, as the Saints host the Titans and the Giants go to Tampa Bay. New Orleans has enjoyed a great homefield advantage in recent years, going 35-17 ATS since 2008, excluding the season Sean Payton wasn’t on the sideline. However, the Giants have enjoyed equally impressive success against the spread on the road in recent years, going 59-39 ATS on the road in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (since 2004). I’m going with the Giants because the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, but this one is as tight as it gets. I like that I get field goal protection with the Giants. If this line shifts significantly, I’d probably have a different pick. I’m expecting a field goal game.

New Orleans Saints 27 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3)

The Colts are in a bunch of spots that they’ve been historically good in since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano arrived in 2012. The Colts are 19-9 ATS at home (including a cover last week as 9.5 point home underdogs in a loss to the Patriots), 14-3 ATS off of a loss, and 8-2 ATS at home off of a loss. On top of that, they are 16-4 ATS in week 5 or later against opponents who have a winning percentage of less than 50% like the Saints here. The Colts have always had trouble with tougher opponents, but they’re a covering machine in easy situations like this, at home, against an easy opponent, and coming off of a loss that dropped the line a little bit.

The line has been dropped from 6.5 in the early line last week to 4.5 this week, as a result of Indianapolis’ home loss to the Patriots and the Saints home win over the Atlanta Falcons. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Colts. The Colts rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Saints only rank 21st.

This is despite the fact that the Colts were without Andrew Luck for 2 of their 6 games and now he’s going into his 2nd game back. The Colts will be without safety Mike Adams in this one, but, compared to early in the season, when they had all sorts of guys banged up, the Colts are in a relatively good injury situation right now. The Saints are too, only missing cornerback Keenan Lewis, after struggling with injuries early on, but there’s no way they should be just 4.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis against a relatively healthy Indianapolis team. They should be at least touchdown underdogs, especially given Indianapolis’ homefield advantage. The Saints’ defense is atrocious, even when healthy, and should have major problems slowing the Colts’ now healthy offense.

The only reason why the Colts are my Pick of the Week or a high confidence pick is because they do have a tough game next week in Carolina, which could provide a distraction. The Saints, meanwhile, host the New York Giants, which is an easier game. Underdogs are 113-70 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be more focused than their opponent in spots like that. Still, I like the Colts chances of covering in this one. This line is too low and the Colts always bounce back off of a loss and always take care of business at home against bad opponents.

Indianapolis Colts 30 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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