Saints

New Orleans Saints trade G Ben Grubbs to the Kansas City Chiefs

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Saints, Uncategorized

Trade for Saints: The Saints came into the off-season in rough shape cap wise. Getting rid of Grubbs hurts, but it’s an understandable move. Grubbs was a top-16 guard on Pro Football Focus for 5 straight seasons from 2009-2013, but graded out slightly below average last season and now he’s going into his age 31 season. The Saints save 6.6 million in cash and 3.6 million on the cap by letting him got (they also got him completely off their cap for 2016) and getting at least something back in return for him (a 5th rounder) is nice.

Grade: B-

Trade for Chiefs: The Chiefs had arguably the worst guard play in the NFL last season, as Zach Fulton and Mike McGlynn graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th and 78th ranked guard respectively out of 78 eligible last season. They will have Jeff Allen back from injury in 2015, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 60th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2013 and missing a whole season with injury probably doesn’t help his future. Grubbs wasn’t great last season and he’s aging, but he’ll only be 31 next season and he could easily bounce back, as he was a dominant player from 2009-2013. The Chiefs aren’t paying much for him, a 5th round pick and 6.6 million in 2015, and can cut him without penalty after the season if he continues struggling, so it’s a solid move.

Grade: B

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New Orleans Saints sign RB CJ Spiller

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

This contract isn’t inappropriate for a player of Spiller’s skill set, as Spiller will make 18 million over 4 years with 9 million guaranteed. That’s the 2nd most a running back has gotten on the open market after DeMarco Murray this off-season, but you can make an argument that Spiller was the 2nd best back available through free agency this year. CJ Spiller, a 2010 1st round pick, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns on 207 carries (6.01 YPC), with 43 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He looked poised for a breakout year in 2013 as a 300+ touch back, but he struggled with injuries over the last 2 seasons (missing 8 games combined and being limited in several others) and he was never a great fit for Doug Marrone and Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s rushed for 1233 yards and 2 touchdowns on 280 carries (4.40 YPC), with 52 catches for 310 yards and a touchdown, combined numbers that many people thought he’d be able to surpass in 2013 alone.

He’s never surpassed 207 carries with annual issues in pass protection (grading out below average in 4 of 5 seasons) and he’s coming off the worst season of his career, 300 yards on 78 carries (3.85 YPC) in 9 games. However, he has a 4.97 YPC average and shows clear first round talent at times. While this isn’t a great value for him, it’s not inappropriate. The value isn’t my issue with this deal.

My issue with this deal is the Saints came into the off-season in the least financially flexible situation, but they’ve committed 8.5 million annually to Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller combined, more than DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy both got from the Eagles and Bills respectively (and I wasn’t a fan of either of those deals either). The Saints have already had to trade Jimmy Graham and Ben Grubbs and now reportedly will have to cut Jahri Evans to make this deal work. Those were three functional or better players for them last season. The Saints would have been better off drafting a rookie in the mid rounds to pair with Khiry Robinson, keeping one of their guards or finding a replacement on the open market, and investing more in their terrible defense, rather than committing this many resources to the running back position.

Grade: C+

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New Orleans Saints trade TE Jimmy Graham to Seattle Seahawks for C Max Unger

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Trade for Saints: I think you can say this is the most surprising move of the day. With probably the least financial flexibility of any team in the NFL, the Saints came up with a creative way to get under the cap for this year and give them added flexibility long-term and it involved parting ways with a player they gave a 4-year, 40 million dollar deal to last off-season. Jimmy Graham and the remaining 27 million over 3 years go to the Seahawks in the deal, along with a 4th rounder, while Seattle’s first round pick comes back to New Orleans along with center Max Unger, who is owed just 9 million over the next 2 seasons.

A lot of Saints fans will undoubtedly be sad to see Jimmy Graham go, but I like this move for them. There’s a drop off in talent from Graham to Unger and their offense immediately becomes worse as a result of this move, but the difference in value between a 1st and 4th round pick is significant, as is the difference in these two players’ contracts. Besides, Unger will slot in at a position of need for the Saints at center and he’s a very solid player.

Unger was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked center last season, despite playing just 385 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better at the position. He missed 10 games with injury last season and the Seahawks desperately missed him when he was out of the lineup. Injuries have been an issue for him in the past as he’s missed 29 games in 6 seasons in the league with injury. Inconsistency is also a problem as, while he was dominant on the field last season and while he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked center in 2012, those are the only two seasons he’s been in the top-10 among centers on Pro Football Focus. Still, he’s graded out above average in 5 of 6 seasons in the NFL and getting him at 9 million over 2 years is a better value than Graham over 27 million over 3, which is very important for the Saints. Add in the swap of picks and I think the Saints made a smart move.

Grade: A

Trade for Seahawks: As I hinted at above, I think the Saints were the winners here. This trade kind of reminds me of the Percy Harvin deal, when the Seahawks were so desperate for a playmaker that they overpaid. Graham should work out in Seattle much better than Harvin did and he fills a huge need for them. Graham for 27 million over 3 years is by no means a bad contract, but they gave up a first round pick and an underpaid center for him. The Seahawks’ offensive line is now in terrible shape as Unger was the only offensive lineman on the roster to grade out positively last season.

Grade: C+

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New Orleans Saints re-sign RB Mark Ingram

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

Mark Ingram rushed for 964 yards and 9 touchdowns on 226 carries (4.27 YPC) is 2014, but he’s a one year wonder who rushed for 1462 yards and 11 touchdowns on 356 carries (4.11 YPC) in his first 3 seasons combined, after the Saints drafted him in the 1st round in 2011. On top of that, his injury history is concern (14 games missed in 4 seasons) and he doesn’t contribute as a pass catcher (53 catches in 4 seasons). The Saints aren’t breaking the bank for Ingram on this 4-year, 16 million dollar deal, but this is still a fairly significant chunk of change in a league where the running back position is as devalued as it’s ever been. On top of that, the Saints have arguably the worst cap situation in the NFL and probably would have been better off letting Ingram walk and using the younger, cheaper Khiry Robinson in tandem with a rookie in 2015. I don’t hate the move, but it’s not one I would have made.

Grade: C+

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New Orleans Saints 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Saints, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Cornerback

The Saints missed on Champ Bailey last off-season, cutting him before the season even started, despite giving the ex-Bronco a 500K signing bonus. Even worse than the 500K down the toilet is the fact that he didn’t give them the cornerback opposite Keenan Lewis that they desperately needed. Lewis didn’t have a very good season in 2014, grading out 98th among 108 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus and neither did really anyone else at the position. Lewis could bounce back in 2015, but they need help after him on the depth chart. Corey White and Patrick Robinson were their #2 and #3 cornerbacks last season, but White graded out 106th out of 108 eligible, while Robinson is a free agent this off-season.

Defensive End

Other than Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette, no Saint had more than 3 sacks last season. Jordan rushes the passer from the interior in sub packages anyway. They desperately need an edge rusher opposite Galette in sub packages, preferably one who is capable of playing in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 because Rob Ryan is staying as defensive coordinator and likes to use both schemes.

Guard

The duo of Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs has been very good for the Saints recently, but not in 2014, as both graded out below average. Maybe if the Saints were in a better cap situation, this wouldn’t be as big of a deal, but Evans and Grubbs are going into their age 32 and age 31 seasons respectively, owed 7.5 and 6.6 million respectively, and the Saints can save 6 million and 3.6 million on the cap respectively by cutting them. I don’t expect both back, so the Saints should need one, if not two new starters at the position this off-season.

Center

Jonathan Goodwin struggled at center last season, grading out 27th out of 41 eligible centers. A free agent going into his age 37 season, I don’t expect Goodwin to be back as a starter this off-season. They need to add at this position this off-season because their best internal option is Tom DeLito, a 2013 undrafted free agent who has graded out below average in his first 2 seasons in the league and played a combined 457 snaps.

Wide Receiver

The Saints drafted Brandin Cooks in the first round last year and he played pretty well before going down for the season with a wrist injury. He should be a big part of their future receiving corps, as should Kenny Stills, a 2013 5th round pick who has been solid in his first 2 seasons in the league. However, Marques Colston is going into his age 32 season and coming off arguably his worst season as a pro. He caught 59 passes for 902 yards and 5 touchdowns, the first season of his career in which he played more than 11 games and caught fewer than 60 passes and the first season of his career in which he played all 16 games and had fewer than 1000 yards. He was Pro Football Focus’ 100th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible last season. He hasn’t had 1000+ yards in a season since 2012 and the Saints can save 4.3 million on the cap and 7 million in cash by releasing him this off-season. Even if they don’t let him go this off-season, they need a long-term replacement as he’s declining, aging, and expensive on a team with little long-term financial flexibility.

Middle Linebacker

Curtis Lofton was Pro Football Focus’ 57th ranked middle linebacker out of 60 eligible last season. Lofton has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been with the Saints since signing a 5-year, 27.5 million dollar deal. The Saints can save 7.25 million in cash and 4.25 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season, but, if they do that, they’ll need a replacement because they don’t really have an internal one.

Outside Linebacker

David Hawthorne was another free agent signing from 3 off-seasons ago by the Saints that didn’t really work out. He’s graded out below average in all 3 seasons since signing a 5-year, 19 million dollar deal. The Saints can save 4.5 million in cash and 2.99 million on the cap. He’s less likely than Lofton to be cut because he’s cheaper and a better player, but, even if he’s back, Parys Haralson is a free agent while Ramon Humber was Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker last season in limited action.

Running Back

Mark Ingram was finally valuable for the Saints in 2014, as the 2011 1st round pick rushed for 964 yards and 9 touchdowns on 226 carries (4.27 YPC), after rushing for 1462 yards and 11 touchdowns on 356 carries (4.11 YPC) in his first 3 seasons combined. However, now he’s a free agent and, if he’s not back, the Saints will need to add at the position. Pierre Thomas is going into his age 31 season and has rushed for just 771 yards on 192 carries over the past 2 seasons (including a career low 45 carries in 11 games in an injured plagued 2014 season), an average of just 4.02 yards per carry. He’s purely a 3rd down back at this stage of his career. Khiry Robinson, meanwhile, has potential, but the 2013 undrafted free agent still has just 130 career carries.

Quarterback

Drew Brees is still playing a high level. The Saints didn’t make the playoffs in 2014, but don’t blame Brees as he led the offense to a 79.14% rate of moving the chains (2nd behind only Green Bay) despite issues on the offensive line and in the receiving corps, completing 69.2% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. He was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked quarterback behind Aaron Rodgers for his efforts. However, he’s going into his age 36 season and his successor doesn’t seem to be on the roster. Brees’ case is especially interesting because he has such an expensive contract on a team with so little financial flexibility so he’s basically always one bad season away from not being worth it anymore.

Key Free Agents

RB Mark Ingram

As I mentioned earlier, Ingram had a breakout year in his contract year in 2014. The 2011 1st round pick was largely a bust for the Saints (especially since they gave up a 1st and 2nd round pick to move back up into the first round to get him), rushing for 1462 yards and 11 touchdowns on 356 carries (4.11 YPC) in his first 3 seasons combined. However, he rushed for 964 yards and 9 touchdowns on 226 carries (4.27 YPC) in 2014. Still, his injury history is concern (14 games missed in 4 seasons), he’s still a one year wonder, and he doesn’t contribute as a pass catcher (53 catches in 4 seasons). Running backs haven’t been getting much on the open market recently and, as good of a natural runner as he is, I don’t expect him to get much on the open market either. A reunion with the Saints would make some sense, but they won’t break the bank for him.

CB Patrick Robinson

Patrick Robinson has essentially been a bust as a 2010 1st round pick, but it hasn’t been for lack of talent. He’s just missed 22 games in 5 seasons and had serious trouble consistently staying healthy and on the field. His best season came in 2011, when he played 15 games (7 starts) and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked cornerback, but whoever signs him shouldn’t expect that kind of play from him. In 2014, he played 624 snaps in 14 games, starting 6 of them, and grading out about average. That’s more par for the course from him. He’ll be looking at smaller multi-year deals to be someone’s #2 or #3 cornerback. Considering the Saints’ desperate need at the cornerback position and that Robinson was their best cornerback in 2014, a reunion could make sense.

OLB Parys Haralson

Haralson played 4-3 outside linebacker for the Saints in base packages this season and rushed the passer off the edge in base packages. He graded out above average, excelling as a run stopper, ranking 5th among 4-3 outside linebackers in run stopping grade, but he didn’t get much pass rush. This is nothing new for him, as he’s graded out above average in 4 straight seasons since 2010 (he missed all of 2012 with injury), but he’s never gotten much of a pass rush. He’s only going into his age 31 season, is only a two-down player, and has only played 2068 snaps in the past 5 seasons combined so he won’t draw a ton of interest on the open market, but he has scheme versatility and can still play a role for someone.

C Jonathan Goodwin

Jonathan Goodwin is going into his age 37 season and, after grading out 27th out of 41 eligible centers in 2014, could be at the end of his line. If he plays another season, he won’t be guaranteed a starting job, but it’s worth mentioning that he’s just one season removed from a 2013 season in which he graded out 13th at his position, that he graded out above average in all 3 seasons from 2011-2013, and that centers tend to have longer careerspans than other positions.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DT Brodrick Bunkley

Brodrick Bunkley has been a free agent bust since signing a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle in 2011, including 1st against the run. Bunkley hasn’t been horrible when on the field in New Orleans, but he’s struggled to find a role in either the Saints’ 3-4 or the Saints’ 4-3 since arriving in town and he’s played just 899 snaps in 3 seasons as a result. He’s also graded out below average in 2 of 3 seasons and missed 10 games. Even when he had his strong 2011 season, he only played 485 snaps and, even at his best, he’s a two-down player because of his inability to get to the quarterback. The Saints can save 4.5 million in cash and 2.88 million in cap space by letting him go this off-season, going into his age 31 season, and the cap strapped Saints won’t think twice about it unless he restructures and takes a paycut.

MLB Curtis Lofton

Like Bunkley, Lofton is a free agent signing from three off-seasons ago that didn’t really work out. Lofton has graded out below average in all 3 seasons he’s been with the Saints, with his worst coming in 2014, as he ranked 57th out of 60 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. His 22 missed tackles led the NFL regardless of position and he was a big part of why the Saints’ defense was so horrible in 2014. The Saints can save 7.25 million in cash and 4.25 million in cap space by letting him go this off-season, a move that would make a lot of sense given their cap situation.

G Jahri Evans

Jahri Evans was a 4th round pick of the Saints’ in 2006 and was a starter basically from the word go, as rare as that is for a 4th round rookie. He’s missed just 2 starts due to injury over those 9 years, so he’s been as durable as they come and he’s also been as consistently dominant as they come, at least up until 2014. From 2007-2013, he graded out in the top-30 in 7 straight years and the top-9 in 5 of those 7 years, maxing out at #1 overall in 2009. However, in 2014, he struggled, grading out below average, 46th out of 78 eligible. Ordinarily, a player of Evans’ caliber would be able to get away with a down season, but the Saints are about as cap strapped as they come and Evans is going into his age 32 season. The Saints can save 6 million on the cap and 7.5 million in cash by letting him go this off-season. If he’s let go, he shouldn’t have much trouble finding another starting job, given his history.

WR Marques Colston

Colston has been with the Saints since 2006 and has been such a big part of their offensive success, but, like Evans, they could be moving on from him this off-season.  He’s aging (going into his age 32 season) and coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He caught 59 passes for 902 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2014, the first season of his career in which he played more than 11 games and caught fewer than 60 passes and the first season of his career in which he played all 16 games and had fewer than 1000 yards. He was Pro Football Focus’ 100th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible last season. He’s purely a complementary receiver at best at this stage of his career and could really struggle statistically if he went somewhere without a quarterback like Brees throwing him the ball. He hasn’t had 1000+ yards in a season since 2012 and the Saints can save 4.3 million on the cap and 7 million in cash by releasing him this off-season. Another option is a paycut and Colston is rumored to be open to that in order to stay with the Saints and Drew Brees.

TE Ben Watson

Watson has had a solid, but unspectacular career since he entered the league in 2004 as a 1st round pick of the Patriots, playing 11 seasons for New England, Cleveland, and now New Orleans, but he’s going into his age 35 season and could be at the end of the line. He played a significant role as the #2 tight end behind Jimmy Graham for the Saints last year, playing 578 snaps, but the veteran graded out 48th out of 67 eligible at his position. His salary for 2015 isn’t a ton (1.5 million), but the cap strapped Saints need all the financial flexibility they can get and they can save that whole amount on the cap immediately by cutting him.

OLB David Hawthorne

Like Lofton and Bunkley, Hawthorne is a free agent signing from three off-seasons ago that didn’t work out as he’s graded out below average in the first 3 seasons of his 5-year, 19 million dollar deal. He’s more likely to stay than Lofton because he’s cheaper and better, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible last season and the Saints can save 4.5 million in cash and 2.99 million on the cap by letting him go this off-season.

G Ben Grubbs

Ben Grubbs was another free agent signing from three off-seasons ago. He actually worked out a lot better than Lofton, Bunkley, and Hawthorne, but the Saints can save 6.6 million in cash and 3.6 million on the cap by cutting him and he’s not an absolute necessity, which is why he makes the bottom of this list. Grubbs was a top-16 guard on Pro Football Focus for 5 straight seasons from 2009-2013, but graded out slightly below average last season and now he’s going into his age 31 season. I do expect him to stay, but it’s not a guarantee.

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13)

The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs last week with their 5th straight home loss, a loss to Atlanta which dropped them to 6-9 on the season. However, they’ve played well enough this season to suggest that if they played an infinite amount of 16 game seasons, they’d make the playoffs more often than not. It didn’t work out that way for them this year, but they’re still better than their record, which gives us value with them here as mere 3.5 point favorites in Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been absolutely terrible this year, moving the chains at a 66.42% rate, as opposed to 74.75% for their opponents, a differential of -8.33% that ranks 30th in the NFL. The Saints have a horrible defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.99% rate, but their offense has moved the chains at a significantly better rate than their opponents, as they’ve moved them at a 79.17% rate, among the best in the league, led by quarterback Drew Brees, who leads the NFL in completion percentage at 69.6 and has an outside shot of finishing with his 3rd career season of 70%+ completion percentage, as many as every other quarterback in NFL history combined. The Saints differential of 2.19% ranks 11th in the NFL. This line is way too low, especially when you take into account the Buccaneers’ home struggles in recent years. They are 14-32 ATS at home since 2009, including 0-7 straight up and 2-5 ATS this season. This season, they move the chains at a 67.20% rate at home, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a pathetic differential of -6.99%.

Why are the Saints 6-9 if they move the chains so well? Well, their defense has been horrible, but we’ve already established their offense has done more than enough to make up for it, so why isn’t it showing up in the standings? Well, a -11 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, and a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less have a lot to do with it. Fortunately, those are much easier problems to fix than pure talent level, even from one week to another. Drew Brees is 23-7 ATS off of a loss with Sean Payton on the sideline since 2008 anyway. That talent level should shine through here against a drastically inferior opponent with minimal homefield advantage. I have a lot of confidence in New Orleans.

New Orleans Saints 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: High

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (6-8)

The Saints recently won 20 straight home games with Sean Payton and Drew Brees, covering in almost all of them (18-1-1 ATS), but they’ve since lost 4 straight games at home, all as favorites. On the season, they are just 2-5 ATS at home and oddly enough they are 4-3 ATS on the road. The Saints certainly aren’t the auto-bet at home they used to be, but it’s worth mentioning how much of an advantage they’ve had in the Superdome in recent years.

The Falcons, meanwhile, typically struggle on the road, especially over the past 2 seasons, going 4-8 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last year. This season, they move the chains at a 72.52% rate, as opposed to 76.95% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -4.43%. The Falcons are 27-15 ATS off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era, since 2008, but just 2-4 ATS on the road off of a loss in the last two seasons.

The Saints are better than their record suggests, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 79.60% rate, as opposed to 77.33% for their opponents, a differential of 2.27%. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 21st, moving the chains at a 74.83% rate, as opposed to 76.23% for their opponents, a differential of -1.40%. However, this line already takes into account that the Saints are better than their record as it’s at 6.5 right now.

Both of these teams are in good spots with easy games on deck, New Orleans going to Tampa Bay and Atlanta hosting the Panthers, meaning that both teams should be able to focus completely on this must win game. Divisional home favorites (like the Saints) are 37-25 ATS before being divisional road favorites since 2002, while divisional road underdogs (like the Falcons) are 60-43 ATS before being divisional home favorites. However, the Saints’ game next week is the easier of the two, which puts them in the better spot. The early line has them favored by 4.5 in Tampa Bay. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, including 60-40 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. I’m taking the Saints, but I’m not confident.

New Orleans Saints 30 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (5-8) at Chicago Bears (5-8)

This might be the toughest game of the week for me to pick. On one hand, Drew Brees is 22-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline. Brees and Payton generally bounce back from adversity well and coming off of a 41-10 loss to the Panthers last week, the Saints have hit rock bottom. You could see it in Sean Payton’s press conference after the game. You could see it by the moves they made this week, cutting Joe Morgan and benching Kenny Vaccaro. I like their chances of bouncing back this week with a playoff berth somehow still up for grabs in the pathetic NFC South. Teams are 81-47 ATS since 2002 off of an ATS loss off of 28 or more.

However, this line is still too high with the Saints favored by 3 on the road. It barely moved from last week when the early line was 3.5 and that might have even been too high then. The Saints rank 12th, moving the chains at a 79.70% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for their opponents, a differential of 1.31%. Meanwhile, the Bears rank 19th, moving the chains at a 75.30% rate, as opposed to 75.69% for their opponents, a differential of -0.39. The Bears are also in a good spot off of a 41-28 home loss to the Cowboys last week as home underdogs, as home underdogs are 69-47 ATS off of losses as home underdogs since 2002. I’m going with the Saints, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-7)

This line moved from 6.5 to 9.5 over the past week. Ordinarily, I hate going with huge line movements as they tend to be overreactions to one week (for example, Carolina getting blown out in Minnesota and New Orleans winning in Pittsburgh), but in this case I feel like all the line movement did was get this line more to where it should have been in the first place. The Saints have been underrated all season. They have a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have a -7 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin, both powered by a 42.31% fumble recovery rate that ranks 26th in the NFL. They could easily be 7-5 or better right now. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 11th, moving the chains at an 80.65% rate, as opposed to 77.98% for their opponents, a differential of 2.67%. The Panthers, meanwhile, rank 26th, moving the chains at a 72.30% rate, as opposed to 75.53% for their opponents, a differential of -3.23%.

When you consider that, this line makes a lot more sense, especially when you take into account how good the Saints are at home. Sure, the Saints lost all 3 home games during their most recent homestand, but that doesn’t completely erase their recent history of home dominance. Prior to that, they had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Sean Payton and Drew Brees. In their previous 23 home games with Payton and Brees, they are 18-4-1 ATS. Even this year alone, the Saints move the chains at an 82.03% rate, as opposed to 77.20% for their opponents, a differential of 4.83% at home. The Saints are also in a good spot with a trip to Chicago on deck, where they are projected to be 3.5 point road favorites. Teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 57-34 ATS before being 4+ point favorites. The Saints have no upcoming distractions and can focus completely on the Panthers. This feels like a Saints blowout win.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play. One, the Panthers are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 110-76 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-54 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. Two, teams are 74-56 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs on a 5+ game losing streak. Adding in the tie in Cincinnati, the Panthers haven’t won since week 5 and have one win since week 2. They’re the more desperate and embarrassed team. However, the Saints should still be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 27 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Saints, Steelers, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)

I am legitimately shocked. The Saints had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton on the sideline and they had 3 straight home games as favorites to move to 7-4 and run away with the pathetic NFC South. And they lost all 3. The types of things that are plaguing this team are the types of things that usually even out in the long run, but they have yet to do so for this team. They have a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have a -9 turnover margin and a -3 return touchdown margin, both powered by a 42.31% fumble recovery rate that ranks 28th in the NFL.

The Saints’ defense isn’t any good at all, but their offense has been moving the ball very efficiently, leading the NFL in first downs by a wide margin. They rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a league best 80.65% rate, as opposed to 77.51% for their opponents, a differential of 3.13%. That’s why I think they’re better than their record and why they are going to be underrated and provide value going forward. However, this week they play the Steelers, who have been better than New Orleans both in record and actual level of play. They’re also on the road, where they haven’t been great recently, and the Steelers have a strong homefield advantage.

The Steelers rank 8th, moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 73.49% for their opponents, a differential of 3.93%. At home, the Steelers are 37-27 ATS at home in the Mike Tomlin era. Meanwhile, the Saints are 4-11 ATS on the road over the past 2 seasons. We’re not getting any line value with the Saints on the road as 4.5 point underdogs here in Pittsburgh, a superior team with a strong homefield advantage.

However, I’m still taking the Saints here as long as the line is higher than 4 because they’re in a good spot. For one, Drew Brees is 21-7 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, though that hasn’t been the case this season and he’s only 5-3 ATS on the road off of a loss. Brees is also 18-12 ATS as an underdog since coming to the Saints in 2006 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, though just 14-10 ATS on the road.

The Steelers also have a tough road game in Cincinnati next week, while the Saints return home for to play the Panthers, a team they’ve already beaten, in a game they’ll almost definitely be favored in. Non-divisional road underdogs are 119-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites, while non-divisional home favorites are 101-124 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs. Combining the two, teams are 102-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m not confident in the Saints at all on the road against a tough opponent though. This line isn’t high enough for me to be confident.

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 New Orleans Saints 31

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +4.5

Confidence: Low

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