Saints

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-6)

Both of these teams are 3-6 and have serious injury problems, among the worst in the league. The Rams will get quarterback Matt Stafford back from a one-game absence with a concussion, but he’ll return to a team that lost arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Cooper Kupp to injury and that is without a trio of starting offensive linemen, left tackle Joe Noteboom, left guard David Edwards, and center Brian Allen from what was already a shaky offensive line entering the season. The Rams’ defense still remains an above average unit, but the absence of their best offensive player and three key offensive linemen has left their offense well below average.

The Saints, meanwhile, have injury problems on both sides of the ball. On offense, they will be without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting left tackle James Hurst, and starting center Erik McCoy, while their defense will be without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, talented starting linebacker Pete Werner, and their stud edge defender duo of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. The Saints have a one-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency and a one-point edge in my roster rankings, but they’re also field goal favorites at home, which is about what they should be. My numbers suggest the Saints are slightly more likely to cover at this number, but this is a no confidence pick and a push is a likely outcome, given that one in six games are decided by exactly three points.

New Orleans Saints 20 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)

These two teams have similar records, but the Saints have a -15 point differential, despite a -10 turnover margin, while the Steelers have a -77 point differential, with a -4 turnover margin. That suggests the Saints have played much better to this point this season, but the Steelers have also faced a much tougher schedule, one of the toughest in the league and the gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency is not that wide, with the Saints ranking 15th, about even, and the Steelers ranking 18th, about 1.5 points below average.

The Steelers also are the healthier team this week, with reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt set to make his return for the first time since week one, while the Saints remain without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting guard Andrus Peat, and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore and now will be without starting safety Marcus Maye, starting linebacker Pete Werner, and starting center Erik McCoy. The Saints will get starting wide receiver Jarvis Landry back this week, but they’re still missing a lot of talent.

With the injury situation both teams are in, I have these two teams about even, but this line favors the Saints on the road by a point and a half. My calculated line has the Steelers as the ones who should be slight favorites, so we’re getting at least some line value with them. It’s not quite enough for them to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +105 and the Steelers are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 New Orleans Saints 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +1.5

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)

The Ravens are 5-3 and they could easily be even better than that, blowing big leads in all three of their losses and ranking 2nd in time leading, only behind the undefeated Eagles. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Ravens rank 3rd, about 7 points above average, and my roster rankings have them around the same, about 7.5 points above average. Despite that, they are only favored by 2.5 points on the road in New Orleans.

The Saints are better than their 3-5 record, having a -1 point differential despite a -9 turnover margin and ranking 14th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about a half point above average, but we’re still getting great line value with the Ravens in a game in which they basically just have to win to cover, with less than 10% of games being decided by two points or fewer. My calculated line has them favored by 4.5, which is a significant difference, given that 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points. That assumes Ravens stud tight end Mark Andrews is going to play, which is not a guarantee right now, but we should know that before gametime. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick for now, but I will increase this to medium confidence if and when we know Andrews is playing.

Baltimore Ravens 24 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Low

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5)

It’s unfortunate that these teams are playing this week, as I think both are underrated and significantly better than their record. The Saints are 2-5, but their primary issue has been the turnover margin, ranking dead last in the NFL at -10, which fortunately for them is not predictive week-to-week. They’re still slightly below average in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 21st, about 1.5 points below average, but that is better than their record would suggest. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 2-4 despite a +13 point differential and rank 11th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 1.5 points below average.

This line, favoring the Raiders by 1.5 in New Orleans, suggests about a four point difference between these two teams, which is a little much, so we’re getting some line value with the Saints, but it’s not nearly enough to bet on them with any confidence. The money line at +105 is a better value because the Saints should be considered at least 50/50 to win this game, but against the spread this is a low confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 28 Las Vegas Raiders 27 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +1.5

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

Normally I like home favorites in non-divisional Thursday games because teams tend to be at a disadvantage when they travel on a short week to face a relatively unfamiliar opponent, unless they happen to be the significantly better team. As a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 63.2% rate on Thursdays when both teams are on short rest. However, in this game, we are getting significant value with the visiting Saints, which cancels out the trend that works in the Cardinals’ favor.

Both of these teams are 2-4 and have faced comparable competition, but the Saints have been the noticeably better team, having the slight edge in point differential (-17 vs. -28), despite faring significantly worse in the turnover battle, with the Cardinals at +2 and the Saints at -7. Turnovers are not nearly as predictive week-to-week as yards and first downs and, in terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards per play, the Saints are at -1.83, while the Cardinals are nearly three points worse at -4.72. 

The Saints aren’t healthy, missing a pair of starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, as well as top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, among less important injuries, but the Cardinals are far from healthy either. Top receiver DeAndre Hopkins returns from a 6-game suspension this week, but he re-joins an offense that just lost Marquise Brown, their top receiver in Hopkins absence, as well as a pair of key starting offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson. 

With Hudson out and Pugh and Brown going down mid-game, it’s no surprise the Cardinals had by far their worst offensive performance of the season last week against the Seahawks. Hopkins’ return this week will help, but the Saints also have a much tougher defense than the Seahawks. With all of the injuries factored in, my roster rankings have the Saints about three points better than the Cardinals, which is in line with the difference between these two teams in overall efficiency.

The Cardinals should have extra homefield advantage on a short week, but this line favors the Cardinals by 2.5, meaning that their homefield advantage would have to be equal to 5.5 points for this line to be appropriate, given the 3-point gap between these two teams. Even on a short week, that homefield advantage is excessive, so the Saints should be the right side in this one. I would need this line to move to a full field goal for the Saints to be worth betting, but if that happens, they would be bettable even in a bad spot. The money line is a good value as well, as the Saints should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +2.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-3)

The Saints are just 2-3, but the turnover margin has been a big problem for them, as they have the worst in the league at -8, which, fortunately for them, is not predictive. In terms of schedule adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are much more predictive, the Saints rank 19th and 7th respectively, so they should be better going forward than their 2-3 record suggests. The Bengals are also better than their record, with their 3 losses coming by a combined 8 points, but they are favored by 2.5 points on the road in this game, even though they are only a half point better than the Saints in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Saints do have some significant injuries, with top wide receiver Michael Thomas and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore both out, which is enough for me to not bet the Saints against the spread unless we’re getting a full field goal, but the Bengals still only rank one point higher in my roster rankings, so we’re getting at least some line value with the Saints, who should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes. The money line is also a good value at +130.

Update: +3s are showing up today, so I am going to lock in that bet.

New Orleans Saints 23 Cincinnati Bengals 21 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Saints are just 1-3, but they’ve faced a relatively tough schedule and have the league’s worst turnover margin at -7, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which takes into account strength of schedule and is based on yards per play and first down rate, two stats are much more predictive week-to-week, the Saints rank 11th on the season. That suggests they have a good chance to bounce back going forward. They’re also healthier this week, with safety Marcus Maye, guard Andrus Peat, and Alvin Kamara all returning after missing last week’s game.

However, the Saints are still missing top wide receiver Michael Thomas and are starting backup quarterback Andy Dalton, which is a concern even if he is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. Even with Dalton starting and Thomas out, I thought we might still get some good line value with the Saints this week, but they are 5-point favorites against the Seahawks. My calculated line has them as 6.5-point favorites, so we are getting some line value with them, but it’s not a significant amount and it’s hard to get excited about betting the Saints at this number without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver. The Saints are my pick, but for pick ’em purposes only.

New Orleans Saints 27 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -5

Confidence: Low

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2) in London

Typically, the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, as the better team tends to be better equipped to deal with playing a game after an unusual week, going 26-14 ATS all-time. That should be especially true in this matchup between the Vikings and the Saints in London, where the Vikings are undervalued as favorites of only three points. The Vikings are off to a significantly better start than the Saints, going 2-1 with a +3 point differential against a tougher schedule than the Saints, who are 1-2 with a -17 point differential.

The Vikings’ defense and special teams have been mediocre, ranking 21st and 20th in efficiency respectively, even when adjusted for schedule, but the Vikings’ offense ranks 3rd in first down rate, which is the most predictive offensive stat, and, when adjusted for schedule, the Vikings lead the league in offensive efficiency, which is more predictive than defense and special teams. It’s only been three games, so that’s not to say the Vikings are the best offense in the league, and they have had an absence of big plays, with just one play over 40 yards all season, but big plays tend to be much less predictive than first downs and my roster rankings have the Vikings as a well above offense as well.

The Saints, meanwhile, could easily be 0-3 if not for a late comeback to win by one against the Falcons, with their two losses both coming by double digits to the Buccaneers and Panthers. They rank just 21st in overall schedule adjusted efficiency, while the Vikings rank 2nd on the strength of their offense, and are six points behind the Saints in my roster rankings as well. That’s in part because the Vikings are the healthier team, getting back Harrison Smith from a one-game absence and otherwise being in good shape, while the Saints are missing a pair of expected starting offensive lineman (Trevor Penning and Andrus Peat), starting quarterback Jameis Winston, top receiver Michael Thomas, and talented starting safety Marcus Maye. With the Vikings getting good value in a good spot, they are worth a bet this week, one I will increase if this line drops down to 2.5, where it is trending.

Minnesota Vikings 24 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)

The Panthers are 0-2, but both of their losses have been very close, coming by a combined 5 points. In their 3-point loss to the Giants last week, they won the yards per play battle by 1.31 and the yards per play battle by 6.03%, only losing because of a -2 turnover margin, which is not nearly as predictive week-to-week as yards and first downs. Their offense only ranks 19th in efficiency, but that’s a significant improvement over last season, when they ranked 29th, as Baker Mayfield is at least somewhat of an improvement over last season’s quarterback situation. 

Their defense, meanwhile, once again ranks among the best in the league in efficiency, again ranking 4th, a year after having the 4th ranked defense in efficiency across the 2021 season. They probably aren’t as good defensively as that suggests and they’ve faced a pretty easy schedule in terms of the offenses they’ve faced this season, but they’re at least an above average unit on that side of the ball, while their offense is much more of a complementary unit than it was a year ago. Despite their 0-2 start, the Panthers are likely to be a competitive team for most of the season, barring major injuries.

That being said, we’re getting good value with the Panthers as field goal underdogs at home against the Saints. New Orleans is a more talented team overall, but they’re a similar team to the Panthers in that they have a below average offense and an above average defense and, while the Panthers haven’t lost by more than a field goal yet this season, the Saints have yet to win by more than a field goal, struggling to beat the Falcons in Atlanta week 1. They could easily have even more trouble on the road against a better division foe in Carolina. My calculated line is even, so like getting the full field goal with the home team enough to bet on the Panthers. I don’t like them as much at +2.5, but the money line should be a good value regardless and even at +2.5 they would remain my pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Carolina Panthers 17 New Orleans Saints 16 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Carolina +3

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-0)

Last week, I bet on the Buccaneers as 2.5-point road favorites in Dallas because of how well Tom Brady led teams have done as underdogs or favorites of 3 or fewer in his career. The Buccaneers covered, pushing Brady’s career ATS record to 58-28 when not favored by 3 points or more, and they now are 2.5-point road favorites again this week, this time in New Orleans. That’s down from Tampa Bay -3 a week ago on the early line, a significant shift, given that about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly three points. 

In another game where Brady’s team just basically just has to win to cover, it would seem to make sense to pick them again, but this is not nearly as sure of a thing as last week, for a couple reasons. For one, the Saints have had a lot of success against Brady in his tenure with the Buccaneers and, still with a dominant defense, they could easily do so again this week. That’s especially true because of the Buccaneers’ injury situation, which is the second reason this isn’t as sure of a thing as last week. 

Having already lost left guard Aaron Stinnie and center Ryan Jensen to injury this season, the Buccaneers will now be without talented left tackle Donovan Smith this week with an arm injury he suffered last week. With Shaq Mason replacing Alex Cappa at right guard this off-season, the Buccaneers now have just one offensive lineman from last season left and not nearly as good of an offensive line as a result. On top of that, they have a receiving corps that is missing Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown from the last couple years and that now will be without Chris Godwin, who is out with a hamstring injury suffered in the opener.

Between Smith and Godwin going down in the past week, it’s perfectly reasonable that this line moved off three and in fact this is right where my calculated line is. The Buccaneers still have a strong defense of their own and could win this game as a result, but Tom Brady will have his work cut out for him against the Saints defense, given the issues around him on offense right now. I’m still taking the Buccaneers, expecting them to sneak out a close, low scoring victory, but this pick is only for pick ‘em purposes and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this was a Saints upset victory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -2.5

Confidence: None