Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

The Seahawks are in a great spot here this week. While the Vikings have to play arguably the toughest game of their season in 4 days on the road on Thursday Night Football (in Arizona against the Cardinals), the Seahawks have an easy road game in Baltimore on deck, against a Ravens team that is one of the worst in the NFL. The Vikings are expected to be 6 point road underdogs, while the Seahawks are expected to be 4.5 point road favorites. Teams are 74-51 ATS before being favorites of 4 or more since 2012. On top of that, underdogs (like the Seahawks) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Seahawks will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Vikings will be next week). Making matters even worse for the Vikings is the short week ahead, as teams are 46-70 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008.

We are only getting 1 point with the Seahawks, which is unfortunate. The Seahawks only rank a few spots higher than the Vikings in rate of moving the chains differential (6th vs. 12th), which suggests this line could be accurate. However, the Seahawks have faced a much tougher schedule than the Vikings have. The Seahawks have played 5 teams with winning records, including Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati, but the Vikings have played just 3 teams with winning records, none of whom rank higher than 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Seahawks are probably the Vikings’ toughest opponent of the season so far, while the Seahawks have already played 4 or 5 better teams than the Vikings. The Seahawks are also not missing one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL, like the Vikings are this week, missing defensive tackle Linval Josepy.

The Seahawks are relatively healthy right now. They’re missing defensive tackle Jordan Hill and running back Marshawn Lynch, but Hill isn’t that important and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls has run much better than Lynch this season, as Lynch has been banged up all year. Rawls is second in the NFL in yards per carry and the Seahawks have won 2 of their last 3, after a 4-4 start. They do seem to be gaining a head of steam in an NFL that feels weak across the board this season. The Seahawks are 19-4 ATS in the final 8 games of the regular season in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012) and 23-6 ATS in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011). That makes sense as this organization is so well run from top to bottom. Teams like that always seem to get better down the stretch, as long as they stay healthy. I wish we were getting more points with the Seahawks, but they’re still my Pick of the Week.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5)

The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points here at home, where they are 21-4 straight up (outscoring opponents by an average of 11.38 points per game) in their last 25 games, since the start of the 2013 season. Over those 25 games, they were favored by fewer than 4 points just twice. They were favored by just 3 points at home over the Cardinals 2 weeks ago, a loss by a touchdown, but the Cardinals are much better than the Steelers, as the Steelers rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Cardinals are 1st.

The Steelers have been better offensively in games where Ben Roethlisberger plays, moving the chains at a 75.14% rate in the 6 games he’s played, as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games, but they’re far from healthy offensively, missing running back Le’Veon Bell, left tackle Kelvin Beachum, and center Maurkice Pouncey for the season. Those are 3 key starters from last year’s dominant offense. They looked good offensively in their 2 last games before the bye, but that was at home against Cleveland and Oakland. On the road in Seattle is much tougher and they could easily struggle, much like they did three games ago, at home for Cincinnati.

Seattle isn’t quite as good as they have been in recent years, thanks to poor offensive line play, but they’re better than their 5-5 record. Four of their five losses came by a touchdown or less and they’ve lost to teams like Green Bay, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Carolina. The Seahawks of years past definitely would have won a couple of those games, but the Seahawks still rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential against a tough schedule.

They’re going to be missing a couple of players with injury, running back Marshawn Lynch and outside linebacker Bruce Irvin, but Irvin is largely a part-time player and rookie phenom Thomas Rawls has run much better than Lynch this season, as Lynch has been banged up all year . I’m confident in the Seahawks covering, especially since the public is all over the underdog. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field or goal or less and I’m very worried about a backdoor cover. If this line does move down to a field goal, I may reconsider.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -3.5

Confidence: High

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (3-6) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

The Seahawks covered in 15 of their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era, but they are just 6-7 ATS since. What happened? Do they not have the same homefield advantage anymore? It’s possible, but I think two others things have contributed to that more. The first is that they’re just not the same team anymore. Back-to-back defending NFC Champions, Seattle is just 4-5 this season and ranks just 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks largely to a remade offense that is not moving the chains well. They’ve had a tough schedule, losing in Green Bay and Cincinnati and at home to Arizona and Carolina, but the toughest team they’ve beaten is Dallas and, ordinarily, the Seahawks would have been able to win at least a couple of those aforementioned tough games, especially at home. Because of the fact that they’re struggling by their standards this season, they’ve been overrated by the odds makers and the public all year, which has led to them failing to cover at home this season (1-3 ATS).

The other reason why the Seahawks haven’t covered at a high rate at home over the past year and a half is because the odds makers have been pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance expensively into the line. It’s not a secret anymore. Even last year, they were just 5-4 ATS at home and they played well last season overall, better than this year. That being said, I don’t think this line is high enough. I think we can buy a little low on Seattle this week. San Francisco ranks dead last in the league in rate of moving the chains differential and the Seahawks should be favored by at least two touchdowns over them in Seattle, especially considering the fact that the 49ers are in a bad spot with a home clash against the Cardinals on deck.

San Francisco is expected to be home underdogs of 8 points in that one, according to the early line. Teams are 14-30 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs since 2012, as it can be tough to concentrate on the week and matchup in front of you with such a big home game on deck. On top of that, teams are 41-64 ATS as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs since 2012, as inferior teams with an upcoming distraction tend to get blown out by a superior team. That’s what I think will happen here. The line is big, but I’m confident enough to put money down on them. The 49ers are still awful and the Seahawks still deserve more than 3 points for homefield advantage.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

Despite having 2 losses, the Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains differential battle in all 8 games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. The Cardinals, despite a couple losses, have been really dominant through their first 8 games, putting up a +110 point differential, despite just a +3 turnover margin on the season.

That being said, look at who the Cardinals have been dominating: New Orleans (12th in rate of moving the chains differential), Chicago (20th), San Francisco (32nd), St. Louis (26th), Detroit (31st), Pittsburgh (18th), Baltimore (27th), and Cleveland (28th). The Seahawks are easily the toughest opponent they’ve had to date, as they rank 7th, despite a much tougher schedule that has included games against Carolina (5th), Cincinnati (3rd), and Green Bay (9th). The Seahawks are very weak on the offensive line, which has really hurt their offense, but the defense is still really good and they’ve held up well despite a tough schedule, playing close games with all 3 of those aforementioned teams.

They might not be as good as they’ve been in the past 2 years, when they won the NFC both times, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with, especially at home, where they are 21-11 ATS under Russell Wilson. They’re just 6-6 ATS in their last 12 home games, so they’re not an auto-bet at home anymore, but that’s because the odds makers have started expensively pricing the Seahawks’ home dominance into the line, not because they’ve stopped being good at home. This line is an example of that, as they’re favored by a field goal at home over a superior Arizona team. I can’t take the Seahawks this week as field goal favorites, because Arizona has been so dominant, even against a weak schedule, but I’m not confident in the Cardinals either.

Arizona Cardinals 17 Seattle Seahawks 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-4)

The Dallas Cowboys lost their 2nd most important offensive player (wide receiver Dez Bryant) to a serious injury in the first week of the season and their most important offensive player (quarterback Tony Romo) to a serious injury in the second week of the season. The Cowboys managed to win both of those games, but have lost all 4 since. However, as weird as this may sound, their offense hasn’t been that much worse, as they’ve moved the chains at a 73.48% rate in the past 4 weeks, as opposed to 75.36% in the first 2 weeks. Credit their offensive line and coaching staff for the Cowboys’ continued offensive success, despite all of their skill position losses (Bryant, Romo, and free agent departure DeMarco Murray).

So why have the Cowboys had significantly less success on the scoreboard in their last 4 games, as compared to their first 2? Well, their defense was fluky good in the first 2 weeks of the season and in weeks 3 and 4 started to look much more like they were supposed to, after ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains last year, getting linebacker Sean Lee back from injury this off-season, but losing defensive tackle Henry Melton (free agent), cornerback Sterling Moore (free agent), outside linebacker Justin Durant (free agent), cornerback Orlando Scandrick (torn ACL), and linebacker Rolando McClain (suspension).

They’ve been better over the past 2 weeks though, as McClain and free agent acquisition Greg Hardy have come back off of suspensions. Both are playing well and, combined with Sean Lee and defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford, they’ve got this front 7 playing pretty well right now. They should have won last week in New York against the Giants, dominating in rate of moving the chains (with 27 first downs to 13 for the Giants) and only losing by 7 because of a -4 turnover margin.

Teams that have a -4 turnover margin, on average, only win that game 5.0% of the time. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent from one week to the next though, as teams that have a -4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. Given that, it’s pretty impressive that the Cowboys were able to almost win despite getting crushed in turnovers and it bodes well for their chances this week. Teams are 61-44 ATS as home underdogs off of a loss in which they had a -4 or worse turnover margin, since 1989.

Last week’s game against the Giants was one of 3 games in which they’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle (along with the first 2), so it makes sense that they rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re not quite that good, but their offense is respectable and gets Dez Bryant back this week, while their defense is more talented now than it was during last season or during the start of this season. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, only one spot ahead of Dallas.

However, the Seahawks have faced a tougher schedule (St. Louis, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati, Carolina, and San Francisco vs. NY Giants, Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans, New England, NY Giants). They are the better team, are essentially completely healthy right now, and are also in a much better spot, for a couple of reasons. For one, the Seahawks are going into their bye week after this one.  Good teams tend to take care of business going into a bye and win big as big favorites. Home favorites of 6+ going into the bye are 59-20 ATS since 2002. The Seahawks, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 39-25 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same.

On top of that, they’re road favorites off of a road win, after winning big in San Francisco last week. Teams are 42-30 ATS since 2008 in that spot, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games, as the Seahawks are. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. Despite all that, I can’t take the Seahawks this week, especially considering all the public action pouring in on them. This line is just too high at 6, either way. The Cowboys are better than this line suggests, even in a bad spot. I’m not confident in them either though.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Dallas Cowboys 13

Pick against the spread: Dallas +6

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-4)

Who would have thought 6 weeks ago that these two teams would have the same record going into their week 7 Thursday Night matchup? These two teams were huge rivals a couple of years ago, but, while the 49ers have fallen apart in the past year, the Seahawks have stayed strong, making back-to-back Super Bowls. However, this year, they’ve won the same amount of games. It’s not that the 49ers have really exceeded expectations, as they’ve been just as bad as expected.

San Francisco finished last season 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and then lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, right tackle Anthony Davis, running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati, defensive end Justin Smith, defensive end Ray McDonald, outside linebacker Aldon Smith, outside linebacker Dan Skuta, middle linebacker Chris Borland, middle linebacker Patrick Willis, cornerback Perrish Cox, and cornerback Chris Culliver this off-season. Now they’re just 2-4 and rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential.

The Seahawks also are 2-4, but the public seems to think they’re still the far better one between these two teams, backing them pretty heavily as 6.5 point road favorites. I agree with them. The Seahawks certainly have been a disappointing team this year, thanks largely to an offense that has been hamstrung by a horrendous offensive line and an injury to running back Marshawn Lynch, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential. However, that’s way better than the 49ers and the Seahawks have also faced a much tougher schedule, going to Green Bay, hosting Carolina, and going to Cincinnati. Despite that, 3 of their losses have come by a combined 10 points.

Is that enough to justify them being 6.5 point road favorites? I’m not necessarily sure, but they are in a good spot. While the Seahawks go to Dallas next week, where they’ll be 5.5 point favorites, the 49ers go to St. Louis, where they’ll be 6 point underdogs. Teams are 109-80 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites (like the Seahawks will be) and 72-48 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, while 6 point underdogs, like the 49ers are here, are 72-95 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point underdogs again, as they will be next week. Better teams tend to cover as long as they don’t have a big distraction on the horizon, especially if the other team has another game that’ll be tough for them on tough. I wouldn’t put money on either side, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 23 San Francisco 49ers 14

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

The Seahawks have a well-documented homefield advantage, but I think it’s kind of too well-documented at this point, to the point where the Seahawks always get a ton of extra points at home. As a result, they are just 6-5 ATS in their last 11 home games, after going 15-5 ATS in their first 20 home games in the Russell Wilson era. This particular line here definitely seems to give the Seahawks a ton of respect at home, as they are 7 point favorites here over the 4-0 Panthers.

The Seahawks actually only rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the undefeated Panthers rank 8th. It’s not quite a fair comparison because the Seahawks have had tough road games in Cincinnati and Green Bay, against two of the best teams in the league, while the Panthers have had a much easier schedule (Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans without Drew Brees, Tampa Bay), but this line is probably still be too high. Seattle gets running back Marshawn Lynch back from injury, but middle linebacker Luke Kuechly returns for Carolina and the Panthers are in better injury shape coming out of the bye, given that stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner hasn’t practiced this week with a pectoral injury for Seattle.

The Seahawks are also in a couple bad spots. For one, they’re coming off of a road overtime loss, a tough one in Cincinnati, and teams are 62-93 ATS in that spot since 1989, unless they are road underdogs, which the Seahawks certainly aren’t. They also have to turn around and play a Thursday Night game and teams are 41-65 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football since 2008. It helps that their Thursday Night game will be in San Francisco, against a 49er team that is one of the worst in the league.

They are currently 6 point road favorites in that one on the early line. Teams are 108-77 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point road favorites and 72-47 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point road favorites. On top of that, 6+ point home favorites are 83-50 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites since 2002. The Panthers have a relatively easy game on deck, hosting the Eagles, but the Seahawks are easily in the better spot from that stand point. If you’re taking Carolina, you’re hoping that the Seahawks can’t handle playing a game in between a dejecting overtime loss and a Thursday Night game, even one in San Francisco against the lowly 49ers, and that the Panthers can handle tougher competition and that, worst case scenario, a touchdown is enough of a buffer. It’s enough for me to take the Panthers, but I’m not confident.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina +7

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-0)

Currently, the Bengals are projected to be 1.5 point underdogs in Buffalo next week, according to the early line. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are projected to be 7.5 point favorites at home for Carolina next week.  Favorites are 67-111 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, so the Bengals are technically in a bad spot this week. On top of that, this line shifted from the Seahawks being favored by 2.5 points to Cincinnati being favored by a field goal in one week and I typically love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re usually the result of overreaction to one week.

All of that being said, I think the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL and should be able to win this game at home, which could easily shift that line in Buffalo to favor Cincinnati and nullify that trend.  On top of that, I think that this line movement wasn’t an overreaction to one week, but was more the odds makers correcting themselves. The Bengals definitely didn’t deserve to ever be home underdogs to really anyone and even at a field goal, I think this line is too low.

Seattle is certainly not a bad team, ranking 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, better than their 2-2 record suggests, but the Bengals have played significantly better than the Seahawks this year, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, and I think are the better team. That’s not what this line, at 3 in favor of the home team Cincinnati, suggests, but I think the Bengals should be able to win this one by a field goal or more and shift next week’s line, especially with Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch set to miss his 2nd straight week with injury and talented Cincinnati safety George Iloka expected to return from a 1 week absence. I’m not confident in the Bengals, but they should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (0-3) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

What a difference a week can make. Last week, the Seahawks were 0-2 and missing Kam Chancellor, their stud safety, who was holding out. Now, though they’re just 1-2, they have Chancellor back and are coming off of a 26-0 win over the Bears, two occurrences that are certainly not unrelated to each other. The Bears are a weak team, especially with Jimmy Clausen under center, but it was such a dominant performance that it should quell a lot of concerns about this team. The Bears picked up just 7 first downs and moved the chains at a mere 41.18% rate, as opposed to 64.29% for the Seahawks.

A much better home team than road team, I think the Seahawks’ play for the rest of the season will resemble week 3 more than weeks 1-2. This is still a contender in the NFC. They won the NFC last season, despite losing two games in a row, at one point. The Seahawks should have another strong performance at home here against the Lions. Not only are they 21-9 ATS at home in the Russell Wilson era (since 2012), but this game is on Monday Night and western time zone teams cover about 2/3rds of the time in night games against eastern time zone teams because of sleep cycles.

The Seahawks could be missing Marshawn Lynch (and Brandon Mebane) in this one, as reports have Lynch 40% likely to play. If he does end up sitting, the Seahawks will have to start undrafted rookie Thomas Rawls. Rawls looked decent last week in relief of Beast Mode, but it’s still hard to trust an undrafted rookie behind a poor run blocking line. The good news for the Seahawks is the Lions are even more banged up. DeAndre Levy, the Lions’ best defensive player, will miss his 4th straight game with a hip problem, while right guard Larry Warford, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, and running back Joique Bell.

The Lions are 0-3 and have been one of the worst teams in the league thus far this season, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains. They’re obviously not as good as they were last season, not just because of injuries, but also because they lost Ndamukong Suh in free agency. They’ve played a tough schedule and they should be better going forward, but their schedule remains hard this week and they probably need to get healthy to start being anything more than an average at best team. The Seahawks have one trend working against them, as teams are 4-17 ATS during week 4 as favorites after winning their first game of the season in week 3, the previous week. Given that and the fact that this line is 10, I can’t be confident in Seattle, but I’m going with them.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Detroit Lions 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2)

A popular pick to win the NFC again this season, the Seattle Seahawks have started the season 0-2. It’s not that bad though and they have a very good chance to bounce back in a huge way this week for a variety of reasons. For one, they haven’t really played that badly, losing in overtime as small road favorites against a decent St. Louis team and then losing by 10 in Green Bay, where the Packers are borderline unstoppable.

Now they return home for their first game of the season. It’s typically bad to have your home opener week 3 because teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989. However, the Seahawks have had such a strong homefield advantage over the past few years that it’ll still be home sweet home. Since Russell Wilson arrived in 2012, they are 26-3 at home (20-9 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 13.34 points per game, as opposed to 16-13 on the road (17-12 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 5.72 points per game.

The Seahawks are also 10-3 ATS off of a loss since 2012. I know that trend didn’t predict the outcome last week correctly, but that’s not a reason to ignore it, especially with the Seahawks returning home and especially with Kam Chancellor returning from a holdout. 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous season typically play well week 3 anyway, going 18-9 ATS since 2002. I’m not confident in the Seahawks because this line is too high for me to be confident at 15, even with Jay Cutler out for the Bears. Covering that line is a tough task for a team that hasn’t really gotten their offense going and that is playing their first home game of the season week 3, against a Chicago team playing their first road game of the season (40-27 ATS since 1989). The Seahawks should be the right side though.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Chicago Bears 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -15

Confidence: None

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