Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1 (+0)

Record: 7-1

The Seahawks were pretty flat in St. Louis this week, but they’ve been so good this season it’s hard to hold it against them. They return home this week where they should blow out the Buccaneers. With the exception of a home game against the Saints and a trip to San Francisco, the rest of their schedule is very easy so they could easily win 13 or 14 games and obtain a homefield advantage throughout the NFC, which is going to be key to their chances of winning the NFC and going to the Super Bowl.

Week 8 Studs

RB Marshawn Lynch

ROLB Bruce Irvin

Week 8 Duds

LT Paul McQuistan

TE Zach Miller

RE Chris Clemons

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at St. Louis Rams (3-4)

This is one I could go either way on. This line has shifted in a big way over the past week, going from -5 to -11.5, but then again, that might be warranted considering the Rams lost Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL and will now turn to Kellen Clemens for the rest of the season. The Seahawks generally struggle on the road, going 26-38 ATS on the road since 2006. However, they have covered 7 of their last 9 opportunities on the road over the past calendar year or so. They’ve also been decent as road favorites, even dating back to 2006, going 9-11 ATS. They’ve also been decent in their second straight road game, going 7-8 ATS since 2006.

The Rams are also in a bad spot as home dogs before being home dogs, as teams are 65-90 ATS in that situation since 2002. I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not very confident. We could see a backdoor cover or something along those lines, especially since road favorites of 7.5 or more are 3-16 ATS since 2011. The Seahawks have a very good chance at a blowout though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis -11.5

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 6-1

I moved the Seahawks down from 1a to 1b after they lost to the Colts in Indianapolis, but the Broncos did the same thing this week and evenly more convincingly, so I’m switching them back on top. I’m kind of disappointed in myself for even making the switch when it was obvious the Broncos would lose at some point. The Seahawks will probably be up here for the foreseeable future. They might not definitely be the more talented team, but they’re better designed to win a cold weather Super Bowl.

Week 7 Studs

QB Russell Wilson

RB Marshawn Lynch

TE Zach Miller

RE Red Bryant

RE Michael Bennett

LOLB Michael Smith

ROLB Bruce Irvin

DT Tony McDaniel

CB Richard Sherman

CB Brandon Browner

FS Earl Thomas

SS Kam Chancellor

Week 7 Duds

MLB KJ Wright

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)

Ordinarily, the rule of thumb is to go against the Seahawks on the road. However, lately they’ve been a covering machine no matter where they are, including a 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Going back to 2007, they are 22-32 ATS on the road, but they have also never really had a problem covering as road favorites in that time frame, going 8-7 ATS. I don’t think you can go against the Seahawks just because they’re on the road here, even on a short week.

Ordinarily, the home team has an advantage on Thursday Nights because travel time cuts into prep time on a short week. However, that’s not the case when the road team is favored because the road team’s talent level tends to cancel that out. Better teams are at just as much of an advantage on Thursday Nights as home teams are. On top of that, because this is a divisional matchup, the short week won’t matter as much. These two teams are familiar with each other and probably spent extra time on each other in the off-season because they knew they’d be facing them twice in critical games.

Given that, I really have no idea which side to go with in this one. Using rate of moving the chains, I’ve calculated this spread at about Seattle -5, which gives us a tiny bit of value with the underdog, but not enough where I’m going to be confident taking them. The Seahawks are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cardinals are also playing a little bit better of late thanks to the return of Daryl Washington defensively and the utilization of Andre Ellington offensively. Also, this could be a sloppy defensive battle between two good defenses on the short week, so getting 6.5 points does seem intriguing. I don’t like to go against the Seahawks, even on the road, but I’m siding with the Cardinals, even though I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +6.5

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 5-1

The Seahawks played one of the weirder games this week so I don’t have much to say. They didn’t blow out the Titans like they normally do to teams at home, but the Titans are a solid team with a strong defense and they would have still covered a 13 point spread if it wasn’t for a special teams return touchdown by the Titans, who didn’t get in the end zone offensively all game.

Week 6 Studs

QB Russell Wilson

RB Marshawn Lynch

DT Brandon Mebane

DT Clinton McDonald

Week 6 Duds

None

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Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1)

You could be pretty rich if you only bet on Seattle at home over the past few years. Since 2007, they are 36-15 ATS at home, including 10-3 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or more and 6-1 ATS as home favorites of ten points or more. Things have only been better for them at home over the past 2 years as they’ve emerged as one of the top football teams in the NFL. They’ve won all 10 of their home games over the past 2 years and in pretty dominant fashion, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.2 points and covering every time except for once. They haven’t been playing cupcakes either. They played 4 playoff teams at home last year, winning by an average of 10.5 points per game, and then they blew out the 49ers at home week 2, a 29-3 victory.

However, I’m not incredibly confident in the Seahawks ability to cover the 14 here at home this week for two reasons. The first is injuries. Their offensive line has been hammered by injuries over the past few weeks, as both Max Unger and Russell Okung have been out. Those are their only two good offensive linemen and it’s showed as the Seahawks have been destroyed up front lately. It wasn’t noticeable against Jacksonville because they suck, but it’s a big part of the reason why they almost lost in Houston and why they lost in Indianapolis. Unger is expected back this week, but Okung is still the more important offensive lineman. On top of that, stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is expected not to play.

The other reason is that the Titans are actually a legitimately solid team, even without Jake Locker. Locker wasn’t the reason they were winning. It was this strong supporting cast, including a tough defense that is allowing opponents to move the chains on just 69% of opportunities. They’ve benefitted from recovering a league best 83.3% of fumbles and a +8 turnover margin as a result, but they are still a solid team.

They lost without Locker at home to the Chiefs, but that game could have gone either way. The Titans lost the game because they lost the turnover battle, but they could have easily won if they didn’t. First downs (20 to 19 Kansas City), yards (353 to 339 Kansas City), and punts (both at 6) were basically even and two of the Titans’ turnovers (a punt block and an interception off a receiver’s hands) were very fluky. The Seahawks should still beat them by more than two touchdowns at home, but I wish this line was lower.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -14

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1 (-1)

Record: 4-1

I thought when the Seahawks won in Carolina (after winning in Chicago, Washington, blowing out Buffalo, and almost winning in Atlanta late last year) that it meant the Seahawks had turned a corner on the road. However, they almost lost in Houston and then last week they did lose in Indianapolis. The Colts are a good team and there’s no shame in losing there, but I’m moving the Seahawks down, essentially from 1a to 1b to Denver’s 1a. That win in Carolina doesn’t look so impressive anymore either.

Week 5 Studs

None

Week 5 Duds

LT Paul McQuistan

RG JR Sweezy

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Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Colts, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

Ordinarily, the Seahawks struggle on the road, in addition to dominating at home. Since 2007, they are 17-37 SU and 22-31 ATS on the road, as opposed to 34-18 SU and 35-16 ATS at home. However, they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road, including wins in Carolina and Houston this season. Those games were close, but they still covered and they’ve been playing very, very good football dating back to the middle of last season.

They’ve won 12 of their last 14 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 221 of 341 (64.8%) for 3011 yards (8.8 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.5 points per game over last 14 games overall, including 7.4 points per game on the road. They are also 12-2 ATS in those 14 games. They’re a dominant football team with a very strong home field advantage, rather than just an above average football team with a very strong home field advantage that shows its true colors on the road. I thought they were the latter before the season, but I’ve changed my mind, but I don’t feel this line reflects that.

Indianapolis could be a very solid football team, but I’m not 100% sold on them. They had 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in 2012. For the first two games of the season, it looked like the same old Colts, barely beating a bad Oakland team at home and then being unable to pull a win out of their ass at home for the Dolphins week 2. Things have changed in the past two weeks obviously, as they’ve blown out both the 49ers and the Jaguars, but it’s possible that the 49er game was just a fluke and the Jaguar game was just, well, a Jaguar game. They are pretty much the same personnel wise as they were 2 weeks ago and it’s hard to believe they suddenly just became a significantly better team. I guess you could point to the Trent Richardson trade, but he’s rushed for 95 yards on 33 carries in 2 games, so he’s not making much of an impact.

The Seahawks are also 8-6 ATS on the road as favorites, even dating back to 2007 and, in their 2nd straight road game, being away from home won’t be as big of a deal, even at a 1 PM ET start in the Eastern Time Zone. The Seahawks are 7-5 ATS in their 2nd straight road game, even dating back to 2007, and it’s very likely the Seahawks have spent the week practicing somewhere in the Eastern Time Zone, given that they weren’t far away last week in Houston. That’ll negate some of the Time Zone effect. Besides, teams are 52-33 ATS as road favorites off of a win as road favorites since 2002. I’m not incredibly confident, in case the Colts actually are for real, but the Seahawks should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1

Record: 4-0

The Broncos have a higher points differential than the Seahawks (88 to 62), but the Seahawks have a better ratio of points for and points against than the Broncos, scoring 109 points to 47 points for their opponents (2.32), as opposed to 179 points for the Broncos, as opposed to 91 points for their opponents (1.97). The Seahawks have arguably played the tougher schedule, as well. They could absolutely beat Denver on a neutral field. They have the secondary to limit Denver’s passing offense and are better suited to winning a game in the cold later in the season, particularly in a cold weather Super Bowl.

Week 4 Studs

C Lemuel Jeanpierre

LE Red Bryant

LE Cliff Avril

RE Michael Bennett

DT Brandon Mebane

Week 4 Studs

RT Michael Bowie

RG JR Sweezy

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Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Texans, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Houston Texans (2-1)

The Seahawks are a significantly better team at home than on the road and have been for years. Since 2007, they are 34-18 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.1 points per games and going 36-15 ATS. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 16-37, getting outscored by an average of 6.4 points per game and going 21-31 ATS. However, the Seahawks are 7-6 ATS as road favorites in that time frame. They’re also are playing so well right now that I’m not picking against them as mere field goal favorites in Houston.

They started last season poorly on the road, losing in St. Louis, Arizona, Miami, and Detroit. However, they’ve won 11 of their last 13 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 209 of 318 (65.7%) for 2888 yards (9.1 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 17.5 points per game over last 13 games overall, including 8.2 points per game on the road. They are 4-2 on the road over that stretch, including 5-1 ATS. They’re playing too well right now to bet against them unless the lines start to skyrocket. If anything, they’re underrated right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, are still pretty overrated. This is simply not the same team they were last season when they started out so well. The Texans could easily be 0-3 right now, needing comebacks to beat both the Chargers and Titans, two supposedly inferior opponents. They haven’t really played that well dating back to last season. Over their last 16 games (including playoffs), a full season’s worth, they are 10-6, but also -10 in point differential. I’m not confident in the Seahawks because of how they started last season on the road, but they should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Houston Texans 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: None

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