Titans

Tennessee Titans re-sign OLB Derrick Morgan

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

A rare first round hit by the Titans, Derrick Morgan’s career got off to a slow start as he was limited to 112 snaps by a torn ACL as a rookie in 2010 and struggled in his return from that injury in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible. However, he’s graded out above average in each of the past three seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013, and 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014. Most importantly, he’s missed just 2 games over the past 4 seasons and doesn’t have any significant injuries on his record other than that torn ACL. His scheme versatility and his pass rush ability are very valuable and the Titans did well to lock up one of their few talented young players on a reasonable 4-year, 27 million dollar deal with 10.5 million guaranteed.

Grade: A-

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Tennessee Titans sign CB Perrish Cox

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

The Titans had a need at cornerback, as Blidi Wreh-Wilson graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 104th ranked cornerback out of 108 eligible in 2014 in his first season as the starter in place of Alterraun Verner, who departed in free agency last off-season. Wreh-Wilson was a 3rd round pick in 2013 and could have been given another shot as a starter in 2015, in hopes that he improved, but the Titans had money to spend this off-season and BWW fits much more naturally as a 3rd cornerback. Cox, for comparison, was Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked cornerback last season in a breakout year.

Cox’s career has had an interesting trajectory. He was a 5th round pick by the Broncos in 2010 and graded out above average on 787 snaps as a rookie, but was let go after one year after being arrested on multiple sexual assault charges. Cox was out of the league entirely in 2011 thanks to those charges coupled with a history of off-the-field issues from his collegiate days at Oklahoma State. However, early in 2012, he was found not guilty and the 49ers gave him another chance. He didn’t play much in either 2012 or 2013, playing 168 snaps in 2012 and 81 snaps in 2013 (11 of which were actually with the Seahawks).

However, injuries opened up a starting role for him back with the 49ers in 2014 and he didn’t look back, playing 965 snaps and making 14 starts. He’s obviously a risky signing given his history, but he clearly has talent, showing it in both of his stints as a starter. This deal gives him 15 million over 3 years, but it likely doesn’t have any money guaranteed beyond 2015 so it’s relatively low risk and not a bad value for a player who is only going into his age 28 season and could easily continue being an above average starter in 2015 and beyond.

Grade: B+

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Tennessee Titans sign S Da’Norris Searcy

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Titans, Uncategorized

Searcy was a 4th round pick by the Bills in 2011 NFL Draft. He played just 511 snaps in his first 2 seasons in 2011 and 2012, but he made 20 starts over the past 2 seasons as a hybrid safety/linebacker. He’s never played more than 753 snaps in a season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked safety in 2014 (on 666 snaps), so I expected someone would give him starter’s money to be a traditional starting safety for them. It turns out that team was the Tennessee Titans, who will pay him 24 million over 4 years with 10.5 million guaranteed. The fit makes sense as the Titans need a replacement for Bernard Pollard at strong safety and need to add as much talent as possible this off-season after a 2-14 season. It’s a risky move, but I think it’s a solid value.

Grade: B+

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Tennessee Titans 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Titans, Uncategorized

Needs

Quarterback

Arguably the most intriguing spot in the first round of the draft is #2 where the Titans are picking. Ken Whisenhunt drafted Zach Mettenberger in the 6th round last year and he showed some promise as a rookie, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.89 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Whisenhunt has praise for Mettenberger in the end of season press conference, but stopped short of naming him the starter for 2015. Quarterbacks who fall as far in the draft as Mettenberger did rarely work out as long-term starters. There’s a decent chance that the Titans fall in love with Jameis Winston’s upside at #2, in spite of the off the field issues and some developing that still needs to happen on the field, or the Titans could go into 2015 with Mettenberger as their guy and hope he develops into a functional starter. Either way, it’ll be a franchise defining decision for the Titans.

Rush Linebacker

The Titans really struggled for edge rush last season outside of Derrick Morgan. Other than Morgan, no rush linebacker had more than 3 sacks. Morgan is a free agent, unfortunately for the Titans, and easily could not be back next season. Kamerion Wimbley was the starter opposite him and he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 44th ranked rush linebacker out of 46 eligible and could easily be a cap casualty this off-season. Quentin Groves was the #3 guy and he would have ranked 4th worst at his position (just ahead of Wimbley) if he had been eligible, despite playing just 246 snaps. He’s a free agent this off-season anyway. If the Titans pass on Winston at #2, Nebraska edge rusher Randy Gregory is going to look awfully attractive.

Offensive Tackle

Michael Oher predictably struggled in his first season in Tennessee, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 75th ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible. Considering he struggled in 2013 as well, grading out as 68th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible and that all of his 9 million dollars in guaranteed money has already been paid out, the Titans could easily cut him this off-season, that would save them 4 million in cash, immediately free up 2 million in cap space, and put a swift end to a poorly thought out free agent signing. They’d need a replacement though, opposite Taylor Lewan, who will continue to man the blindside.

Safety

Bernard Pollard should be back in 2015, after missing most of 2014 with a torn Achilles, even though he’ll be in his age 31 season, coming off of a significant injury, and owed 3.1 million dollars in cash. When healthy, he’s a solid starter. However, Michael Griffin opposite him, could easily not be back. The inconsistent former first round pick will be owed 6.3 million in non-guaranteed salary in 2015, his age 30 season, and was Pro Football Focus’ 5th worst safety last season. The Titans will need to replace him as George Wilson, who filled in for Pollard last year, was the 6th worst safety and will be a free agent going into his age 34 season this off-season.

Running Back

2014 2nd round pick Bishop Sankey struggled in his first year as a starter in 2014, rushing for 569 yards and 2 touchdowns on 152 carries (3.74 YPC), but he’ll be the starter in 2015 again. They need another running back to provide competition though. Veteran backup Shonn Greene is highly unlikely to be back in 2015, owed 3.35 million in an age 30 season.

Cornerback

The Titans really missed Alterraun Verner this season, as Coty Sensabaugh and Blidi Wreh-Wilson both struggled mightily opposite Jason McCourty this season. They graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 96th and 104th ranked cornerbacks out of 108 eligible last season. Some competition should be added this off-season.

Center

2013 4th round pick Brian Schwenke has struggled in his first 2 seasons in the league. He’s made 20 starts, but he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 30th ranked center out of 36 eligible in 2013 and 32nd ranked center out of 41 eligible in 2014. The Titans should add competition this off-season.

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

OLB Derrick Morgan

A rare first round hit by the Titans, Derrick Morgan’s career got off to a slow start as he was limited to 112 snaps by a torn ACL as a rookie in 2010 and struggled in his return from that injury in 2011, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 67 eligible. However, he’s graded out above average in each of the past three seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013, and 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2014. Most importantly, he’s missed just 2 games over the past 4 seasons and doesn’t have any significant injuries on his record other than that torn ACL. His scheme versatility and his pass rush ability will make him a hot commodity on the open market.

LT Michael Roos

Michael Roos missed 11 games with a knee injury in 2014 and the Titans really missed him. Prior to 2004, he was as dependable as a left tackle could be, missing just one start from 2007-2013. Even including last season, he’s graded out above average in every season dating back in 2007. He’s going into his age 33 season, which is a serious concern as he comes off that injury. He’s reportedly considering retirement, but if he doesn’t end up retiring, he could be a nice cheap option on the open market.

QB Jake Locker

Jake Locker didn’t live up to the Titans’ expectations, after they took him 8th overall in 2011. Locker sat behind Matt Hasselbeck as a rookie and only played in 29 of 48 games over the past 3 seasons. His numbers weren’t terrible, as he completed 57.5% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 22 interceptions, while rushing for 644 yards and 5 touchdowns on 95 carries. but they don’t offset the variety of injuries he’s had. The Titans sat him behind Zach Mettenberger at times last season even when Locker was healthy, opting to see what the rookie had in Locker’s contract year. That suggests they’re very likely to move on from him this off-season, in favor of Mettenberger or a quarterback they take early in the draft. However, in a league where the quarterback position is so valuable and good quarterbacks are so scarce, Locker will draw interest on the open market as a buy low quarterback and be given a chance to compete for a starting job. He’s only going into his age 27 season and he still has natural talent if he can ever stay on the field long enough to develop it.

WR Nate Washington

Nate Washington has been around for a while, playing in every game in each of the last 9 seasons, catching 411 passes for an average of 6296 yards and 40 touchdowns with the Steelers and Titans. He’s never been great, with only one season of 1000+ yards, but he’s always been decent and dependable. However, now he’s going into his age 32 season and coming off of an underwhelming season in which he caught 40 passes for 647 yards and 2 touchdowns and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 96th ranked wide receiver out of 110 eligible in pass catching grade. He’ll be seen as a depth receiver and nothing more on the open market this off-season.

S George Wilson

A long-time Bill, George Wilson graded out above average in every season from 2008-2012, including 3 seasons as a starter (2009, 2011, and 2012). His best seasons were 2009 and 2012, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th and 8th ranked safety respectively. As a free agent in 2013, Wilson, then going into his age 32 season, was forced to settle for a short-term deal and only played 420 snaps as a reserve in 2013, though he did play well. Wilson moved into the starting lineup when Bernard Pollard got hurt in 2014, but he struggled mightily, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 83rd ranked safety out of 88 eligible. Now going into his age 34 season, he won’t draw much interest on the open market.

DT Karl Klug

Karl Klug, a 2011 5th round pick, has never played more than 520 snaps in a season and has only once played more than 338 snaps. However, he’s graded out above average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle in 2013 despite playing just 330 snaps. The 6-3 275 pounder is only a situational player, but can provide valuable interior pass rush in sub packages and would be a nice pickup for anyone who signs him this off-season.

Potential Cap Casualties

OT Michael Oher

In one of the NFL’s most head-scratching moves last off-season, the Titans gave Michael Oher a 4-year, 20 million dollar deal, even though he was coming off of an awful season to end a generally inconsistent and disappointing 5-year tenure in Baltimore, after going in the first round in 2009. In 2013, his final year in Baltimore, he was Pro Football Focus 68th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible. In 2014, his first year in Tennessee, Oher predictably struggled once again, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 75th ranked offensive tackle out of 84 eligible in 11 games, before going down for the season with an injury. The 9 million dollars they guaranteed him was absurd, but it’s already been paid so it’s a sunk cost. The Titans could easily cut him this off-season, a move that would save them 4 million in cash and immediately free up 2 million in cap space.

RB Shonn Greene

Another weird free agent signing by the Titans, Shonn Greene was a backup caliber running back masquerading as a starter in New York with the Jets for 4 years to start his career, but, even in a league where the position is becoming devalued, the Titans gave him a 3-year deal worth 10 million dollars with 4.5 million guaranteed 2 off-seasons ago. Greene rewarded them with 171 carries for 687 yards (4.02 YPC) and 6 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, while catching 7 passes for 52 yards. Owed 3.35 million between salary and bonuses in the final year of his contract, the Titans should cut him to save that amount in cash and on the cap. He’s going into his age 30 season, got arrested this year, and shouldn’t be making anything more than the league minimum.

TE Craig Stevens

Purely a blocking tight end, the Titans still signed Stevens to a 4-year, 14.4 million dollar deal before the 2012 season. Stevens was a good blocker in his first 2 years in 2012 and 2013, but only caught a combined 25 passes. In 2014, he played just 70 snaps before going down with an injury. Considering the Titans forced him to take a significant pay cut last off-season to stay on the team, there’s little to no chance he sees his scheduled non-guaranteed 3.5 million dollar salary in 2015, which will be his age 31 season.

OLB Kamerion Wimbley

Kamerion Wimbley struggled mightily opposite Derrick Morgan last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 44th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 eligible. Owed 2.75 million in cash going into his age 32 season in 2015, Wimbley is unlikely to be back. The Titans would save only 950K on the cap by doing so, but it would get them out of 6 million dollars owed over the next two seasons and he’d be off of their cap completely in 2016, when his cap number would otherwise be 5.15 million (1.8 million if they cut him next off-season.

DT Sammie Lee Hill

Sammie Lee Hill signed a 3-year, 11.4 million dollar deal with the Titans 2 off-seasons ago. In 2013, he graded out about average on 389 snaps and in 2014, he struggle on 597 snaps. He’s owed a non-guaranteed 4 million dollars in 2015 between salary and bonuses and the Titans would save that amount in cash and cap space by cutting him this off-season. Given that he’s a marginal player and that he was investigated for sexual assault this season, they could easily do that.

S Michael Griffin

Griffin has been the picture of inconsistency throughout his career in Tennessee since they drafted him in the first round in 2007. He has had slightly above average years in 2007, 2010, well above average years in 2008 (9th), 2011 (10th), and 2013 (14th), and below average years in 2009 (87th out of 88), 2012 (87th out of 88), and 2014 (84th out of 88). The Titans gave him a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal with 15 million guaranteed three off-seasons ago. All that guaranteed money is expired and, given how horrible he was last season, he could easily be let go ahead of his age 30 season in 2015. The Titans would avoid 6.3 million in salary and 6.5 million in salary in 2015 and 2016 respectively and save 4.5 million immediately on the salary cap by doing so.

G Andy Levitre

This is one that I’ve heard rumored, but it’s not likely. Levitre signed a 6-year, 46.8 million dollar deal 2 off-seasons ago and all the guaranteed money has already been paid out. Levitre was very solid in 4 years in Buffalo to start his career, making all 64 starts over that period, including 5 at left tackle and 1 at center. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked guard in 2011 and their 8th ranked guard in 2012. He was once again solid in the first season of his contract in Tennessee in 2013, making all 16 starts and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked guard. However, last season, he graded out below average, though he did once again play all 16 games. He’s owed a non-guaranteed 6.5 million in 2015 and the Titans can save 2.3 million on the cap immediately by cutting him this off-season. However, I think it’s more likely they keep him around. They’re not that pressed for cap space and, when he’s right, he’s the kind of top level player that the Titans have a severe shortage of.

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (10-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-13)

The Colts were embarrassed last week in a 42-7 loss in Dallas. I had Colts +3 as my Pick of the Week and I messed up big time. I failed to take into account the Colts’ relative road struggles, their struggles with quality opponents in recent years, including this year, and the impact that the absence of TY Hilton would have. I was desperate for a Pick of the Week in a tough week for games and I didn’t want to go with a team like Washington, Chicago, or Houston, the types of teams that had burned me in the past few weeks, even though everything I had told me they were the right side and I was still up big on the season (all 3 covered and Washington and Houston won straight up as big home underdogs).

I apologize for straying from what’s gotten me this far and not trusting what I do. Looking back, I should have made another team Pick of the Week and made Indianapolis a lower confidence pick (Dallas was still 7-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010 going into that one). However, I really like the Colts chances of bouncing back in a big way this week for a number of reasons. There a lot of differences between this week’s game and last week’s game and I feel really good about this one. This is Indianapolis as Pick of the Week take 2.

For one, TY Hilton is expected back after missing last week with a hamstring problem. Teams generally bounce back off of a blowout loss like the one the Colts suffered last week anyway, going 49-25 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 35 or more. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. The Colts might not necessarily be overlooked by the 2-13 Titans, but they should be embarrassed after what happened last week (and they’re 13-1 ATS off of a loss since Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck arrived in 2012 anyway) and I also think they’re undervalued, as just 6.5 point favorites here.

Despite what happened last week, the Colts still rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.33% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 3.90%. Tennessee, meanwhile, has been horrible this year, moving the chains at a 66.50% rate, as opposed to 75.39% for their opponents, a differential of -8.89% that ranks 31st in the NFL. This line is too low. Speaking of Tennessee being horrible, the Colts have always beaten up on bad teams in the Luck/Pagano era, going 17-4 ATS against teams with .500 or worse records since 2012, as long as it’s week 4 or later (.500 or worse teams in the first few weeks of the season aren’t always necessarily bad). The Colts have had a lot of trouble with good teams like the Cowboys over the past 3 years, but they shouldn’t have much trouble blowing out the Titans.

On top of that, the Colts are in their 2nd straight road game this week, as opposed to last week when they were in their first. This puts them in a good spot. Teams are 82-63 ATS as road favorites off of a road loss as underdogs since 2002. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 196-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.29 points per game, as opposed to 276-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.19 points per game.

The only thing the Titans really have going for them is their long losing streak, as they’ve lost 9 straight. Teams are 32-20 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a losing streak of 9 or more games. Again, this is a counterintuitive one, but it makes sense for the same reasons why teams covering off of blowout losses makes sense, teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in this spot. However, we’ve already established they aren’t undervalued and, while they may be embarrassed, I don’t see the Colts overlooking the Titans after what happened last week. I’m still confident enough in the Colts to make them by Pick of the Week as long as this line is less than a touchdown.

Indianapolis Colts 34 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)

This is the worst game of the year. Both of these two teams rank in the bottom-3 in rate of moving the chains differential and have for most of the season. This is the only game this year between two teams that bad. And thanks to the NFL’s rule that everyone get a primetime game, we have to watch this game instead of one of the 14 games that features at least one team still mathematically alive in the playoff race.

Believe it or not, one of these teams is actually better than the other one. Jacksonville is noticeably, but though not really significantly better than the Titans. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 64.76% rate, as opposed to 72.69% for their opponents, a differential of -7.92%, while the Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 66.15% rate, as opposed to 75.47% for their opponents, a differential of -9.32% that is over a percentage point worse than Jacksonville’s. Despite that, this line says these two teams are even, so we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Jaguars.

However, I’m not taking the Jaguars, because they’re in a horrible spot. They have to go to Houston next week where they will be road underdogs. Divisional home favorites are 20-53 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, which is one of the most powerful trends there is. Meanwhile, Tennessee is on an 8 game losing streak (last winning week 6 against these Jaguars). Teams tend to cover on long losing streaks, going 64-40 ATS since 1989 off of 8+ straight losses.

It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. They’re not undervalued, but they could be overlooked and embarrassed. I’m not confident in the Titans though because they’re in a bad spot with a home game with the Colts on deck. Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs, and 12-25 ATS before being 7+ home underdogs. The Titans seem like the right side though.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Tennessee Titans 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Titans, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-11) at Tennessee Titans (2-11)

The Titans are a really bad team, moving within percentage points of a Raiders team that previously seemed untouchably in last place in rate of moving the chains, after a blowout home loss to the Giants last week. They move the chains at a 66.57% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential of -9.53% that ranks 31st (Oakland is at -9.61%). However, the Jets have no business being favored by a field goal on the road against anyone. They rank all the way down at 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 67.89% rate, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.81%.

The Jets being favored by a field goal is a drastic shift from last week, when the early line had them as field goal underdogs. I love fading massive line movements because they’re almost often huge overreactions and in this case I think it’s an overreaction to the Titans 36-7 home loss to the Giants. That was an ugly loss, as was their 45-21 loss to the Texans the week before, but teams actually cover at a fairly high rate off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more points, as teams are 41-23 ATS in that spot since 2002. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. They’re definitely undervalued and they’ll almost definitely be overlooked and embarrassed.

Adding to the theory that the Titans will be overlooked this week is the fact that the Jets have a much bigger game next week with the Patriots coming to town. Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 9-24 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, and 1-7 ATS before being 10+ point home underdogs (the early line in New England -10.5). On top of that, road favorites are 77-120 ATS before being home underdogs since 1989. Combining the two, road favorites are 6-18 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs since 1989. It’s a very small sample size, but the logic definitely makes sense.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Titans is because the Jets are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 46-31 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 38-26 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, that aforementioned 38-26 ATS trend is just 5-9 ATS since 1989 when the previous game was an overtime contest and teams in general are 79-97 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime loss. The Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 16 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Giants, Titans, Uncategorized

New York Giants (3-9) at Tennessee Titans (2-10)

The Giants typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.52 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally better at home (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate. As a result, they are 55-38 ATS on the road over that time period, including 14-8 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, as they are here.

Giants are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 44-31 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 36-26 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game.

The Giants lost last week in Jacksonville on the road, but they lead early 21-0 and only lost because they lost the turnover battle by 3 and the return touchdown battle by 2. Despite that, they still only lost by 1 (as 2.5 point favorites). The Jaguars lost the chain game by a significant amount, moving them at a 67.86% rate, while the Giants moved them at a 71.43% rate. The Giants probably win that game 80-85% of the game and probably cover about 75% of the time.

Now they face an even easier opponent than Jacksonville as the Titans have been horrible this season and they do so as even smaller favorites (1 point) and in their 2nd straight road game. The Titans rank 31st, moving the chains at a 67.77% rate, as opposed to 76.72% for their opponents, a differential of -8.95%, while the Giants rank 21st, moving the chains at a 72.93% rate, as opposed to 74.27% for their opponents, a differential of -1.43%. I like the Giants’ chances of winning straight up here in Tennessee and I have confidence in them as mere 1 point favorites.

New York Giants 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -1

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-9) at Houston Texans (5-6)

The Titans are in their 2nd of two road games which is typically a good spot for teams. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 187-191 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.36 points per game, as opposed to 262-380 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.34 points per game.

However, I’m going to go the other way this week for two reasons. For one, the Texans are also in a good spot this week. Divisional home favorites are 115-84 ATS since 1989 before being divisional road favorites and the Texans have a trip to Jacksonville on deck. The early line for that game is 3.5. Teams are 87-57 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 55-33 ATS before being 4+ point favorites. The Texans have no distractions on the horizon and should be completely focused to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

Speaking of the Titans being an inferior opponent, this line isn’t nearly high enough. The Texans aren’t a great team, but they are significantly better than the Titans, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.36% rate, as opposed to 73.24% for their opponents, a differential of -2.88%. The Titans, meanwhile, rank all the way down at 31st, moving the chains at a 67.55% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -8.55%. We’re not getting any line value whatsoever with the Titans so I can’t take them this week. I’m not confident in Houston, but they should be the right side.

Houston Texans 23 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -6.5

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Eagles, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)

Both of these teams will be divisional road underdogs next week, Philadelphia in Dallas and Tennessee in Houston, so both of them are in bad spots. Teams are 86-106 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 51-80 ATS before being divisional road underdogs over that same time period. However, I’m taking the Titans here because I think the Eagles are in an even worse spot because their game with the Cowboys is in 4 days. Favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. I’m not confident at all though.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +11

Confidence: None

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