Titans

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-1)

A week ago, this line favored the Rams by 4.5 on the early line, but the line has since shifted to 7.5 points. Normally I like to fade significant week to week line movements like this, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week or play, but, given the circumstances, that movement seems warranted, as the Titans lost feature back Derrick Henry for an extended period of time with an injury, while the Rams added talented edge defender Von Miller from the Broncos in a trade. 

We are getting a little bit of line value with the Titans, as the Rams have been a little overrated in recent weeks and my calculated line has the Titans at +7, but there is too much injury uncertainty on both sides to take either side confidently right now. The Rams will get left tackle Andrew Whitworth back from a one-game absence this week, but their newest addition Von Miller is not a lock to play with an injury of his own, while quarterback Matt Stafford and starting wide receiver Robert Woods didn’t practice all week. Stafford is expected to play, but may not be 100%, while Woods seems legitimately questionable and would likely be limited if he did play.

On the Titans’ side, they’ll get starting wide receiver Julio Jones back this week, but they could be without fellow starting wide receiver AJ Brown, while left tackle Taylor Lewan is questionable to return from a two-game absence. With key players truly questionable on both sides (Miller and Woods for the Rams and Lewan and Brown for the Titans) it’s hard to pick either side confidently and my final pick will almost definitely come down to who has the better final injury report. Either way, I don’t see myself betting this game unless the final injury report is really skewed in favor of one team or another and the line doesn’t move. I’m taking the Titans now for a no confidence pick, but I will almost definitely be doing an update on this before gametime.

Update: Brown and Woods are both expected to play, but we don’t have confirmation on Lewan and Miller yet. If Miller plays and Lewan doesn’t, I may change this pick to the Rams, but it would be a no confidence pick either way.

Los Angeles Rams 31 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +7.5

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-2)

The Saints got a huge home win over the Buccaneers last week, but they still had a significant loss in that game, as quarterback Jameis Winston is now out for the season after tearing his ACL, leaving veteran journeyman backup Trevor Siemian under center. Siemian led the win in relief of Winston last week, but the Saints also won the turnover battle by 3 and had a pick six, which is not a sustainable way to win games, and they lost the yards per play battle by 2.3, which is much more predictive. 

The Saints are in many ways healthier than they have been for most of the season, with a pair of talented offensive linemen in Terron Armstead and Erik McCoy and a trio of defensive starters in Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Kwon Alexander back in the lineup after significant absences, but the downgrade at quarterback will hurt them. Despite that, this line has moved up from favoring the Saints by 5.5 on the early line last week to favoring them by 6 this week, as the public bought into the Saints’ win over the Buccaneers.

The Saints are also unlikely to have the same effort this week as they had last week, now coming off of an emotional home victory, as teams cover at just a 41.4% rate all-time after a win as home underdogs of 4 points or more. It could be especially tough for the Saints to focus this week because last week’s win came against a tough divisional foe, while this week they face a sub-.500 Falcons team. The Saints also have to turn around and face the Titans next week and favorites of 6 or more cover at just a 44.1% rate all-time before facing an opponent whose winning percentage is 30% better than their current opponent’s winning percentage.

We aren’t really getting line value with the Falcons, who have faced just one team with a winning record and whose three wins came by a combined 12 points against teams that are a combined 5-18, but the Saints’ quarterback situation and general lack of an explosive passing game makes it hard to justify them being favored by this many points against anyone other than the worst teams in the league and the Falcons don’t quite qualify. Even if we aren’t getting much line value, the Falcons are worth a small play at +6 because of how bad of a spot the Saints are in.

New Orleans Saints 20 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (5-3) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)

I was hoping we would get some value with the Colts this week, facing the Titans, who are coming off of upset home victories over the Bills and Chiefs, previously considered the two best teams in the AFC. The Titans played well in those two games, but this could be a let down spot against a team they have already beaten, with another tough game on deck against the Rams. Teams cover at just a 43.5% rate all-time after a home upset victory as underdogs of 4 points or more and the Titans are coming off two such games. 

This is also still the same Titans team that was blown out by the Cardinals and that lost in overtime to the Jets for the Jets’ only victory of the season, so it’s not hard to see how the Titans could struggle in a rematch with the Colts, who they only beat by nine at home in Tennessee in a game in which the Colts had Carson Wentz playing through two bad ankles, without his two best offensive linemen Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith and top wide receiver TY Hilton. 

Wentz has gotten healthy and is playing at a high level and he will have Nelson, Smith, and Hilton together for the first time all season this week, after they missed an average of five of the Colts first seven games. Despite those injuries, the Colts have been better than their 3-4 record through seven games, winning all three games by multiple scores, but losing two of their four losses by one score, against among the best teams in the league in Ravens and Rams. Unfortunately, the public and the oddsmakers seem to recognize that the Colts are better than their record, leading to them being favored by a field goal at home, suggesting they are actually seen as the slightly better of these two teams. 

My calculated line has the Colts favored by just a point, so we’re actually getting some line value with the Titans. The Colts being favored also puts them in a bad spot, as favorites tend to disappoint before a short week, covering at a 41.9% rate before a Thursday game, and the Colts face the Jets on Thursday Night Football next week. That might not affect the Colts since they have a worse record and have lost to the Titans already this season, but it’s another reason not to take the Colts. There isn’t enough here for either side to be bettable, but I am taking the Titans at +3, as they still have a good chance to win outright and, if not, they have a good chance to at least push this number.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Tennessee Titans 26

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-2)

The Chiefs lost at home to the Bills a couple weeks ago and then the Bills went to Tennessee the following week and lost as 6-point favorites. Now with the Chiefs going to Tennessee, they are only 4-point favorites and seen as a popular pick to be upset this week. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the Bills brought their best effort to knock off the Chiefs and then subsequently were flat the following week against a Titans team that brought its best effort to knock off the newly anointed AFC favorite. 

Now it could be the Titans’ turn to be flat. It’s tough to bring your best effort for back-to-back tough games and teams cover at just 40.8% rate all-time after a win as home underdogs of 5 or more. The Titans are also dealing with some injury absences, most notably left tackle Taylor Lewan, who is out with a concussion. The Chiefs are, meanwhile, significantly better than their 3-3 record, as they have faced a tough schedule, have struggled mightily with turnovers (-8, second worst in the NFL), and have had significant defensive injuries that have heavily contributed to them ranking dead last in yards per play allowed. 

All three of their wins came against opponents who are 4-2 or better and the Chiefs lost the turnover battle by a combined 8 across those three losses, while only being outscored by 25 points total, in games in which key defensive players were missing. At the same time, the Chiefs haven’t been much healthier in their three wins, which have come by a combined 34 points, despite only an even turnover margin across those three games. Their only one score win has come against another tough team, the Cleveland Browns. 

Turnover margin is one of the least predictive stats and I would expect any team that has struggled with turnover as much as they have to be significantly better going forward, but that’s especially the case for the Chiefs, as having an elite quarterback is one of the few ways to consistently fare well in the turnover margin. Overall, the Chiefs were +23 in turnover margin in Patrick Mahomes’ first 3 seasons in the league prior to this season. Even this season, most of Mahomes’ interceptions have been off of drops or tipped balls, which are unlikely to continue recurring at this rate. 

The Chiefs defense should also be a lot healthier this week. So far this season, defensive linemen Frank Clark (3 games missed) and Chris Jones (2 games missed), cornerback Charvarius Ward (4 games missed), and safety Tyrann Mathieu (1 game missed) have yet to play in the same game all year and those are arguably their four most important defensive players. The Chiefs should have at least three of them back this week with Ward, the least important of the three, being the only one of the four to even be legitimately questionable this week. Most notably, they will get Chris Jones back from his absence this week and he’s one of the best defensive linemen in the league when healthy. 

Aside from turnovers, which I mentioned earlier as unlikely to continue, the Chiefs’ offense has been as effective as ever this season, leading the league with a 40.6% first down rate that is even more impressive when you factor in schedule adjustments (+10.71% first down rate above expected), so if their defense can even be a complementary unit, this team should be as tough to beat as ever going forward. Even at 3-3, they could easily be considered a Super Bowl favorite in the long-term.

Defense is a much less predictive side of the ball anyway, but I would expect them to be a lot better on that side of the ball going forward, while the offense should continue dominating, barring key injuries of their own. I was hoping for a better line after the Titans won last weekend, but even with the Chiefs as 4-point favorites, we are getting line value, as my calculated line has the Chiefs favored by a touchdown. This is still worth a small bet, as somehow the Chiefs have wound up underrated.

Update: After considering the Titans’ injuries more, I am upping this bet. The Titans will have Bud Dupree active despite barely practicing this week, but he’s struggled mightily this season, while safety Amani Hooker, who has played very well when on the field this year, is inactive after injuring himself in practice on Friday. The Titans were already down a pair of starting cornerbacks and their top linebacker from a defense that was already underwhelming entering the season, so it’s hard to see them having much success at all slowing down the Chiefs this week. This line remains at 4, while my calculated line is Kansas City -8.5, so we’re getting a lot of value with Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs 38 Tennessee Titans 30

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -4

Confidence: High

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)

The Bills went into Kansas City last week and won a nationally televised game against two-time defending AFC Champion Chiefs. That came after the Bills outscored their previous three opponents by score of 118-21 and, with their 38-20 win over the Chiefs, the Bills have the league’s best point differential by a wide margin at +108 (next closest is +62). Between that point differential and their nationally televised win over the previous de facto Super Bowl favorite, the Bills have become the league’s new de facto Super Bowl favorite. That can be seen in this line, which now favors the Bills by 6 points in Tennessee over a decent at worst Titans team, a week after the Bills were just -3 in this game on the early line.

The Bills may be the best team in the league, but I do think they are a little overrated right now. Even if we completely discount their week one home loss to the underwhelming Steelers, the Bills faced a very easy schedule during their streak of blowout wins, while their win over the Chiefs was aided by a +4 turnover margin, which is something that is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of first down rate, which is more predictive, the game was a lot closer, with the Bills winning the first down rate battle by just 1.84%. 

Overall on the season, the Bills have benefitted from a +11 turnover margin, which is the best in the league by a wide margin (no one else is better than +7), but also something that is highly unlikely to continue going forward, given the unpredictability of turnover margins. No team in the NFL had a turnover margin better than +11 on the season last year, so the Bills could play turnover neutral football going forward and still wide up as the league’s best turnover margin team when all is said and done. 

The Titans haven’t been great this season, but they are getting healthier, most notably with both star wide receivers AJ Brown and Julio Jones expected to suit up this week, for the first time since both went down in week 3. My calculated line still has the Titans as field goal home underdogs, with the Bills 5.5 points higher in my roster rankings, so we’re getting line value with the Titans at +6. This isn’t a big play, but this should be a competitive game and the Titans will have the motivation edge to make a statement in this nationally televised game, with the Bills having already done so last week.

Buffalo Bills 30 Tennessee Titans 27

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)

This line shifted from favoring the Titans by 7 points on the early line last week to 4.5 points this week, likely as a result of the Titans losing in a similar spot as big road favorites in New York against the Jets last week, losing in overtime as 6-point favorites. However, the Titans are healthier than a week ago, with top wide receiver AJ Brown and starting cornerback Caleb Farley both set to return, while the Jaguars are an even weaker opponent than the Jets.

The Lions and Texans are clearly the worst two teams in the league, but the Jaguars aren’t too far behind them, even losing to the Texans week one, albeit back when the Texans still had Tyrod Taylor healthy. Still, that game wasn’t that close, nor have any of the Jaguars’ games been, with the exception of last week’s close loss to the Bengals, against a team that was missing it’s top two defensive backs. Even with that result factored in, the Jaguars are still losing by an average of 10.3 points per game and have the 5th worst point differential in the league.

That near win in Cincinnati last week may also be part of the reason why this line shifted, but that wasn’t as impressive as it could have been if the Bengals were fully healthy on defense and last week’s result should probably be overshadowed by the situation that has developed with head coach Urban Meyer since last week’s game. Meyer, who already was unpopular with the players, could have completely lost the locker room, which could cause this winless team to quit if they get down big early. They’re also likely to be unprepared and unfocused after the week they had.

The Titans have the offensive firepower to put the Jaguars down big early and should be favored by a lot more than 4.5 points, but I am hesitant to bet on them because they’re not in a good spot either. After this easy matchup with the Jaguars, the Titans have a much tougher matchup with the Chiefs and may not be fully focused as a result. The Jaguars could be equally distracted and unfocused, but there isn’t quite enough here for the Titans to be worth betting. Their defense is still a problem and I would be worried about a backdoor cover if the Titans aren’t focused enough to pull away early.

Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -4.5

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New York Jets (0-3)

This is a pretty unappealing game to bet on. I have thought the Titans are overrated since before the season began. They won 11 games a year ago, but they faced an easy schedule and went 7-2 in one score games, while leading the league with a +11 turnover margin, which are both unsustainable long-term. They drew a lot of attention in the off-season for their addition of Julio Jones, but he is on the decline and might not be an upgrade on free agent departure Corey Davis, while the loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and an aging offensive line also affect this offense in a negative fashion. They are 2-1, but their point differential is still negative at -13, as a result of an embarrassing week one loss to the Cardinals.

The Jets, however, are one of the worst teams in the league, with the league’s worst point differential (-50), and are the type of team the Titans could beat by multiple scores. The Titans are missing their top-2 wide receivers with both Julio Jones and AJ Brown out, while their defense will be missing edge defender Bud Dupree and cornerback Caleb Farley, two key off-season additions, but the Jets will be missing their top defensive player Marcus Maye from a roster that was already very thin on above average players. My calculated line is right at where the odds makers have it, Tennessee -6, and I don’t see a real edge for either side, but I’m taking the Titans purely because it’s hard to expect anything positive from the Jets right now.

Tennessee Titans 24 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -6

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

This game is tough to project because we don’t know how effective Carson Wentz is going to be, playing through two sprained ankles, and he technically isn’t even a lock to start, as he could still be ruled out pre-game in favor of either Nick Eason and/or Brett Hundley, which would be an obvious downgrade. Wentz is also a strong candidate for an in game setback even if he does start. My calculated line with Wentz being factored in as heavily limited still has the Titans as only 4 point favorites, giving us line value with the Colts at 5.5, but that’s more of a fade of the Titans than anything, as they are an overrated team.

The Titans won 11 games a year ago, but they faced an easy schedule and went 7-2 in one score games, while leading the league with a +11 turnover margin, which are both unsustainable long-term. They drew a lot of attention in the off-season for their addition of Julio Jones, but he is on the decline and might not be an upgrade on free agent departure Corey Davis, while the loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and an aging offensive line affect this offense in a negative fashion. 

They were exposed in a week one blowout loss to the Cardinals and, while they bounced back with an overtime win in Seattle, they still have the 6th worst point differential in the league through 2 games. I’m taking the Colts, who are also in a good spot because 0-2 teams that made the post-season a year ago tend to cover at an above average rate in week 3, but it’s hard to take them confidently given the uncertainty around Wentz’s health.

Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +5.5

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

This game has one of the biggest week-to-week line movements of any game this week, with the Seahawks moving from 3.5-point favorites on the early line last week to 6.5-point favorites this week. Normally, I like to fade significant line movements like that as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but I thought the Seahawks were underrated and the Titans were overrated coming into the season and I still think that is somewhat the case, as my calculated line is Seattle -7.5.

The Titans won 11 games a year ago, but they faced an easy schedule and went 7-2 in one score games, while leading the league with a +11 turnover margin, which are both unsustainable long-term. They were exposed with their week one loss, but I don’t expect them to be drastically better going forward, as their offense could have significant issues without offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are one of the most complete teams in the league and should be able to beat a middling Titans team by more than a touchdown. I wouldn’t bet on the Seahawks at -6.5, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

This line favors the Titans by a field goal at home, suggesting these two teams are about equal, with the Titans possibly being the slightly higher ranked team by the oddsmakers. I think this line is off. These two teams were about even in point differential last season (+52 for the Titans vs. +43 for the Cardinals), even though the Cardinals had quarterback Kyler Murray suffer an injury down the stretch, while Titans faced a significantly easier schedule and benefited from a league best +11 turnover margin, which is a highly inconsistent metric on a year-to-year basis. 

The Cardinals finished last season 12th in first down differential at +1.39%, as opposed to 24th at -1.31% for the Titans, and they should be better this season, in Kyler Murray’s third season in the league, with Chandler Jones returning from injury and key off-season additions Rodney Hudson and JJ Watt upgrading big positions of need. The Cardinals aren’t as good at cornerback as a year ago, with Patrick Peterson signing in Minnesota and replacement Malcolm Butler retiring before the season for personal reasons, but they’re an overall better team than a year ago.

The Titans, meanwhile, made a splash addition of Julio Jones this off-season, but he’s an aging receiver on the decline and could easily not be an upgrade on departed free agent wide receiver Corey Davis, who finished last season 5th with 2.58 yards per route run. They added Bud Dupree to upgrade their pass rush, but gutted their cornerbacks in the process and overpaid a player in Dupree who is coming off of a torn ACL and who is unlikely to be as effective away from the Steelers’ talented defense. 

Add in the fact that Derrick Henry is unlikely to repeat last year’s historic season and the Titans seem likely to be worse than a year ago, while the Cardinals are likely to be better. Considering the Cardinals probably already had the edge last season, that would make the Cardinals a significantly better team. I have them 2.5 points higher in my roster rankings, making this an even line with the Titans at home. This isn’t a big bet, but I’ll happily take the field goal we’re getting in this game and will make a play on the moneyline as well.

Arizona Cardinals 31 Tennessee Titans 30 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Medium