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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+1)

Poor Browns. They can’t even tank right. Brian Hoyer became the first quarterback to throw for 3 touchdowns in a game for the Browns since Brady Quinn in 2009, while punter Shane Lanning also threw a touchdown, giving him as many as Brandon Weeden has this season. The presence of Josh Gordon clearly helped and it’ll be very interesting to see if they’re really trying to shop him like reports have said. Teams like the Patriots, 49ers, and Ravens should send the Browns a 3rd rounder for him in a heartbeat.

Week 3 Studs

LG John Greco

RG Oniel Cousins

RE John Hughes

ROLB Jabaal Sheard

SS TJ Ward

Week 3 Duds

MLB Craig Robertson

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 28 (-2)

The Jaguars might have “won” the Teddy Bridgewater bowl when they lost to the Raiders week 2, but the Vikings might have “won” the Tajh Boyd bowl by losing to the Browns last week. It’ll be interesting to see if they actually pull the trigger on a quarterback early in 2014. Head Coaches are usually very stubborn when it comes it giving up on quarterbacks they drafted in the first round (see Ryan, Rex) and it’s very doubtful that Leslie Frazier gets fired, no matter how badly the Vikings do this season. At the same time, reports have said that the Vikings are closer to benching Ponder than anyone knows. We’ll see what they do.

Week 3 Studs

RG Brandon Fusco

CB Marcus Sherels

ROLB Desmond Bishop

Week 3 Duds

TE Kyle Rudolph

LG Charlie Johnson

RE Jared Allen

CB Josh Robinson

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 31

The Raiders got a win against the Jaguars week 2, but things were back to normal in week 3 as they got blown out by the Broncos. Even the final score of 37-21 doesn’t tell how big of a blowout it was. The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game.

Week 3 Studs

QB Terrelle Pryor

RT Tony Pashos

Week 3 Duds

LG Andre Gurode

MLB Nick Roach

CB DJ Hayden

CB Mike Jenkins

FS Brandian Ross

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32

Give the Jaguars credit. They almost covered the spread as 19 point underdogs in the first half. And yeah, they drafted a punter over Russell Wilson, but he was used 7 times against the Seahawks, while Russell Wilson was sitting on the bench by the middle of the 3rd quarter. It’s back to Blaine Gabbert this week for the Jaguars, but it won’t matter. The worst thing they can do at this point is win because they are the clear favorites for Teddy Bridgewater at this point. Maybe that was their plan all along, draft the best available in 2013, cut big contracts, and build for 2014 and beyond.

Week 3 Studs

None

Week 4 Studs

QB Chad Henne

TE DJ Williams

LG Will Rackley

SS John Cyprien

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2013 Week 4 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

WR Santonio Holmes (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.8%

In his 3rd game back from injury, Santonio Holmes caught 5 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown, showing great rapport with Geno Smith. His quarterback situation isn’t ideal and he’s not the most reliable receiver anyway, but he could be back and he’s worth a bench stash for that reason. He’s only 29 years old and had a 1000 yard season in 2009.

TE Charles Clay (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.9%

Clay had another solid week, catching 4 passes for 40 yards, bringing his season total to 14 catches for 203 yards and he also has a rushing touchdown. He’s put up at least 4 fantasy points in all 3 games. He’s a low end TE1 and worth a pickup.

RB Jason Snelling (Atlanta)

Percent owned (ESPN): 14.6%

Jacquizz Rodgers is Steven Jackson’s direct backup, but it looks like Jason Snelling is going to get plenty of work with Jackson out as well and it looks like Jackson will be out until at least week 7. Snelling totaled 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 touches, including 4 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.2%

Tannehill seems to be having a leap year in his 2nd year in the league. He’s completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. This week, he plays New Orleans in what could be a shootout that will produce plenty of fantasy points. If your starting quarterback has a week 4 bye (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton), Tannehill is a very solid pickup.

WR Stephen Hill (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.8%

Santonio Holmes wasn’t the only Jet with a big week. Stephen Hill caught 3 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown, bringing his season totals of 13 catches for 233 yards and a touchdown. He’s not going to be that reliable going forward, especially if Holmes can continue playing this week, but he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues.

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.2%

Nate Washington caught 8 passes for 131 yards this week. Kenny Britt isn’t doing anything and rookie Justin Hunter is still too raw. If Jake Locker can continue a solid level of play, Washington could be a startable option because of how much Locker trusts him, but I don’t think Washington has much upside.

RB Brandon Bolden (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Stevan Ridley is starting to fall out of favor with the coaching staff. LeGarrette Blount is taking most of the ceded carries, but Brandon Bolden has become the new passing down back and even totaled 100 all-purpose yards against the Buccaneers. He’s worth a look in deep leagues and PPR leagues to see if he can keep this up.

RB LeGarrette Blount (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.8%

As I mentioned, Stevan Ridley is starting to fall out of favor with the coaching staff. Blount actually led the team in carries against New England, rushing for 65 yards on 14 carries. That could continue going forward, though it’s tough to trust him because of how inconsistent Bill Belichick is with running backs and because of Blount’s own inconsistent nature.

WR Donnie Avery (Kansas City)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

Alex Smith doesn’t seem to be looking downfield to Dwayne Bowe very much. He has middling arm strength and has thrown 20+ yards downfield just 4 times all season. Instead, he’s been targeting guys like running back Jamaal Charles, fullback Anthony Sherman, and slot receiver Donnie Avery. Avery, who caught 7 passes for 141 yards against the Eagles, could be a big part of the offense going forward.

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Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Steelers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2)

I tweeted before Pittsburgh/Cincinnati that I could see the loser of the game still making the playoffs after starting 0-2 and I still feel Pittsburgh could sneak in, even after losing. It was a pretty competitive game either way. If David Paulson doesn’t fumble in field goal range in the 1st quarter and a tipped ball doesn’t turn into an interception in the 4th quarter, that could have been a completely different game.

The Steelers really need Le’Veon Bell to come back healthy and play well. He’s expected back this week, though probably in a limited role. Heath Miller is expected to return as well, but it’s unclear how limited he’ll be in his first game back from a torn ACL suffered last December. Right now, their offense doesn’t make any sense, as they have no running game, a deep throw quarterback, speed receivers, an overmatched offensive coordinator who loves short throws, and an offensive line that can’t block. That could be a different story this week as their health improves.

Fortunately, the defense looks like one of the better units in the NFL thanks to the return of Troy Polamalu healthy. They should remain a tough defense going forward and I find it hard to believe they’ll be the 3rd least efficient offense in the NFL (in terms of moving the chains) all season, so I haven’t completely given up on them, especially in an AFC North that looks clear as mud right now.

This week, they face an NFC North team which is a different monster, but it’s not like Chicago is that great of a team. I don’t believe that the Bears deserve to be 2.5 point favorites here in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers have been home dogs just 6 times in the Ben Roethlisberger era, going 3-1-2 ATS. I also don’t believe that the Steelers are going to start this season 0-3. At the same time, I’m not confident in them at all right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Saints, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-0)

The way young players have stepped up on what was previously a horrible defense has to be very exciting for Saints fans. Cameron Jordan, back at his collegiate position for 5-technique end, is playing like one of the best in the game, while Junior Galette, Akiem Hicks, and rookie John Jenkins are also playing well. The offense is going to score points. There’s no concern there. But if they can stop teams at even an average rate, they’re going to be tough to beat. Almost every year a team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. The Saints are the obvious front runner to do so right now.

The Saints didn’t move the ball that well last week because they played outdoors and in the rain, but back at home, inside, with no weather element, Drew Brees should be as deadly as he usually is. I really hate to bet against the Saints in the Superdome, where they’ve won 10 straight, both straight up and against the spread, under Sean Payton. However, I’m not that confident in the Saints -7.5 because the Cardinals are a team that I think will be competitive this season and one that can definitely mount a backdoor cover with all of their talented wide receivers and a great garbage time quarterback in Carson Palmer.

New Orleans Saints 30 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans -7.5

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Trends wise, the Cowboys are in a bad situation this week. St. Louis is road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 88-52 ATS since 2008. Teams cover about 65% of the time in this situation historically as well, no matter what year you use to cut off the sample. The Cowboys, meanwhile, struggle as home favorites since the opening of the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009. Excluding Thanksgiving home games, when they usually cover no matter what, they are 8-17 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more since 2009. It doesn’t have to do with the stadium, but considering the key personnel hasn’t changed much since 2009, this is relevant.

However, I think this line is way too low. This line at -3.5 suggests the Cowboys are barely better than the Rams, which is not true in my opinion. The Cowboys are still my pick to win the NFC East. They barely lost in Kansas City last week, but there’s no shame in that. They’ve fixed the turnover problems that plagued them last year, as I expected they would, going from -13 last year to +3 through 2 games. Their defense is improved under Monte Kiffin, allowing opponents to convert just 71.4% of first and 10s for a subsequent first down, better than the average team allows. They will only get better as guys like Anthony Spencer get healthier and guys like George Selvie and Nick Hayden have stepped up big time in place of guys with injury.

The Rams, meanwhile, I predicted to 6-10 at the start of the season. They went 7-8-1 last season, but I don’t think they match that, even with their increase in talent level. If they didn’t add all they added this off-season, they would have been even worse. Teams that have big win improvements like the Rams did last season usually regress about half of that improvement the following season. There are unsustainable things about the Rams’ 2012 season.

They were 6th in the league in adjusted games lost, meaning they had significantly fewer injuries than the league average. This was a season after they ranked dead last in that category in 2011. They also exceeded their Pythagorean Expectations by a whole win (assuming a half win for the tie) as they were outscored by 49 points on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, 23rd in the NFL. They’re not barely worse than the Cowboys this season. Part of my 6 win projection for them had to do with a hard schedule and I probably would have predicted 8-8 for them in the NFC East, but it’s not like Dallas it’s a hard opponent. I’m not putting anything on it though.

Dallas Cowboys 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -3.5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Denver Broncos (2-0)

I think a lot of people have forgotten how awful the Raiders were supposed to be coming into this season and I don’t understand why. They did almost beat the Colts in Indianapolis week 1, but the Colts won 7 games by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams last year, including the 2-14 Chiefs. The Colts then followed that up by losing at home to Miami. The Raiders then beat the Jaguars in Oakland last week 19-9 in a game that was actually more lopsided than the final score would suggest, but I don’t know how impressive that is. Jacksonville is definitely worse than the Raiders, but you can really say that about any other team, considering how awful the Raiders were seen to be coming into the season, and for good reason.

I think that will get exposed this week against Denver in a blowout loss and even though this line is -15.5, I feel like it would be closer to -18 a couple of weeks ago, especially considering how well the Broncos have started the season. Peyton Manning should move the ball with ease against a defense filled with generally replacement level players, especially with Tyvon Branch out as well, and put Terrelle Pryor into the kind of obvious passing situations he hasn’t been in thus far this season and that will expose him. Manning has been especially good under the national television lights in his career, going 19-6 ATS on Thursday or Monday Night in his career. I have no problem laying the 15.5 here.

Denver Broncos 37 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Denver -15.5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

It’s really early, but the Jets have the best defense in the NFL, by far, in terms of preventing their opponent from moving the chains. They’ve allowed just 51.2% of first and 10s to be converted for a subsequent first down. Getting Tampa Bay week 1 and then a Thursday Night Game in the rain week 2 definitely helps, but you have to be impressed with how their defense played against the Patriots last week, even if Tom Brady was working with arguably the worst receiving corps of his career that night. Nose tackle Damon Harrison and middle linebacker Demario Davis have been breakout stars through 2 weeks.

The Bills have also done some impressive things this season and I don’t think either of these teams are quite as bad as we expected them to be before the season, but I like the fact that we’re getting the Jets as very short favorites at home. They aren’t moving the chains offensively, converting 62.7% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, but because of how well they are doing defensively, they ranked 3rd in the NFL in that differential in this early season. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 24th. The Jets also have an extended week to recover and game plan for the Bills, coming off Thursday Night Football. There’s a very good chance the Jets hold the Bills to close to single digits and win an ugly one.

New York Jets 16 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: NY Jets -1.5

Confidence: Low