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San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Titans, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

These two teams have had eerily similar starts to their season. Both have almost beaten the Texans in what was seen as a “surprise,” even though the Texans haven’t really been that good since the middle of last season. Both also pulled upset wins in Pennsylvania against a team that might not have been as good as we thought they were at the time. Still, both of these teams have exceeded expectations thus far this season.

They also rank 18th and 20th (Tennessee and San Diego respectively) in terms of how frequently they convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, as opposed to how frequently they allow their opponents to do so. The Titans are doing it with defense, allowing opponents to convert 68.4% of their first and 10s for a subsequent set of downs, while the Chargers are doing it with offense, converting 82.5% of first and 10s for a subsequent set of downs. At the same time, the Titans’ offense has been miserable, while the Chargers’ defense can’t stop anyone.

The question here is which of these teams, if any, is for real, at least in terms of being a pseudo-playoff contender in the weaker AFC. I think we’ll have a better idea of that after the game, but that doesn’t do us any good before the game. However, I feel that the Titans are for real, while the Chargers aren’t. For one, I think the Titans are more overall talented. They had 7 of my pre-season top-200 players, while the Chargers had just 1, including none on offense. The reason they’re moving the ball so well is because Philip Rivers seems to be having a resurgence and that could continue, but his offensive supporting cast is really not that good, so I don’t expect the Chargers to continue to be this efficient offensively.

The Titans’ defense, meanwhile, could continue to do this. They were dead last in points per game allowed last season, but they ranked 8th in 2011 with essentially the same personnel. They were one of the wild cards of this season for me for that reason and it’s very possible they are playing much closer to how they played in 2011 defensively than 2012. If that continues, they will continue to be a tough team to beat, even if Jake Locker continues throwing his name into the group of 2011 1st round quarterback busts with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder.

For that reason, I think the Titans win here and cover a 3 point spread at home (which traditionally means two teams are even). However, I’m not that confident because the Titans are in a rough situation playing their home opener during week 3. Since 1989, teams that have played their week 3 game at home after starting the season with back to back road games are just 20-40 ATS. Starting the year on the road like that takes so much out of you. They should still be the right side though.

Tennessee Titans 20 San Diego Chargers 15

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Giants, Panthers, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)

The Panthers are now 2-14 since 2011 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Part of my reasoning for them having a big season was that their record in close games would even out, as it always does in the long run, but it’s very possible that won’t happen this year. They need to fire Ron Rivera. They should have done it last off-season (can you imagine how good they’d with be Chip Kelly, you know his #1 choice would have been working with Cam Newton?).

You can’t put the entire 2-14 record in close games on him, but he has to take the blame. Last week, the reason they lost on their final drive was because they only had 4 healthy defensive backs, but you could also blame Rivera for opting to kick a field goal to push the lead to 6 rather than trying to ice it on 4th and 1 late. Instead of putting his faith in his expensive running game or his great short yardage quarterback, he put his faith in a defense that literally didn’t have enough healthy bodies to be successful.

Also, because Rivera is a defensive Head Coach, the bulk of the offensive responsibilities have fallen on offensive coordinator Mike Shula, who is doing a terrible job in his first season in that position. That’s a big part of the reason why the Panthers have struggled to move the ball early on this season. Cam Newton did not pick up where he left off last season, completing 60.7% of his passes, but for just 5.8 YPA in this unnecessarily conservative offense, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. He’s also taken off running just 9 times for 53 yards. Only 20 of Newton’s 61 pass attempts have gone more than 10 yards through the air and the new offensive system has to be blamed for that.

Fortunately, it’s not all bad news, as the defense has picked up where it left off, when it allowed 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season. After holding the Seahawks to 12 in their opener, they held Buffalo to 17 last week, before that final drive, in which, of course, they didn’t have enough healthy defensive backs.

The Panthers will have enough healthy defensive backs this week, unless they have another rash of in game injuries, but they are literally using replacement level talent in the secondary throughout this week, with Charles Godfrey done for the season, Josh Norman and Quintin Mikell out for this one, and Josh Thomas also possibly out. Their secondary was not very talented to begin with, but this just makes things even worse. Their tremendous front 7 has been masking their putrid back 4 over the past 2 seasons and they could continue to do so this week, but they’ll have their work cut out for them.

If the Panthers bounce back offensively and hold it together defensively, they could play well enough that this won’t need to be a close game and there’s always the possibility that they finally are able to win a close one, but I don’t know how likely the best case scenario is for the Panthers this week. The Giants, meanwhile, come into this game 0-2 as well, largely because of a -8 turnover margin that is by far the league’s worst this season. Fortunately, this type of stuff is pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a -4 turnover margin one week average about +0 the following week and the same thing for a team that previously had a +4 turnover margin.

They also tend to be a very good team on the road, going 47-33 SU and 50-30 ATS on the road since 2004, as opposed to 44-33 SU and 37-40 ATS at home in that same time period. They also usually start seasons well, so I find it hard to believe they’ll start this season 0-3. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season.

I also like the Giants in a situation where they’re being doubted, though I’d like them better if they were dogs and facing an opponent that was publicly perceived as better than the Panthers. The public is also placing everything they have on the Giants. Combine that with the possibility that the Panthers actually break out this week and I’m nervous to bet either side. The Giants should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

New York Giants 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

I feel like I say this every week, but Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against future playoff teams in his first two years in the league, completing 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, including two post-season losses. In his other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, going 18-4.

Thus far this year, he’s lost to a borderline playoff team in Chicago and beat a maybe not even borderline playoff team in Pittsburgh. Against Chicago, he played better than he usually does against that caliber of opponent, completing 26 of 33 for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he also threw 2 back-breaking interceptions, which is a big part of why they were unable to win.

Against Pittsburgh, still a tough defense regardless of whether or not they make the post-season this year, Dalton struggles, as he has against the Steelers throughout his career, completing 25 of 45 for 280 yards and a touchdown. He managed the game well and avoided the back breaking turnover that cost him in Chicago the week before, but he also missed open receivers and was very reliant on his receivers’ abilities after the catch.

Green Bay this week is a more clearly a playoff team than either of their first two opponents, which is relevant considering this line is less than 3. Green Bay essentially just needs to win here and I think they have a very good chance of doing so. The Packers could have won in San Francisco and they bounced back to demolish the Redskins at home. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredible football right now, completing 55 of 79 (69.6%) for 813 yards (10.3 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception (which wasn’t his fault), while leading the Packers to 51 first downs to 9 punts. While the Redskins defense isn’t very good, the 49ers’ defense certainly is and he still shredded them.

Cincinnati has a great defense and overall supporting cast, but that might only serve the Bengals to keep the Packers out of the 30s. They’re going to have to win a shootout if they’re going to win this game and I don’t think that’s something they’re capable of. Dalton is just 2-11 in his career when his defense allows 21 or more points, a situation teams, on average, win 26.8% of the time since Dalton came into the league in 2011. The Packers, meanwhile, have gone over 21 points in 62 of 74 games since the start of the 2009 season. The Packers should be able to take this one.

Green Bay Packers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

Ordinarily, I don’t like laying 19 points, but in this case, I think this line is completely justified, if not too low. The Seahawks aren’t quite as good at home as their 29-3 win over the 49ers would suggest. If you played that game 100 games, the average margin of victory would not be 26, but it would probably be at least 7-10, which is impressive in of itself against a very high quality team like the 49ers. They’ve won all 9 of their home games over the last 2 seasons and done so by an average score of 30-11.

Considering their average margin of victory has been 19, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be favored by 19 over a Jacksonville team that looks like clearly the worst team in the NFL. After essentially being shutout at home by the Chiefs week 1 (their 2 points came on a safety by the defense), they lost 19-9 in Oakland, in a game that was 19-3 before garbage time. They barely had over 100 yards of total offense before garbage time against a defense that came into the season as one of the worst in the NFL. Overall on the season, they’ve converted 55.1% of first and 10s for a subsequent first, 15.1% less than their opponents have, the worst disparity in the NFL. Before garbage time in Oakland, they actually had more punts than first downs. They’re going to have a very hard time moving the ball against the Seahawks.

If anything the Seahawks are playing better of late. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 195 of 297 (65.7%) for 2686 yards (9.0 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 16.7 points per game over last 12 games overall, including 25.2 points per game at home.

The Seahawks home dominance is nothing new though. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 33-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.71 points per game. They are 35-15 ATS at home in that span. They’re even better as big home favorites, going 9-3 ATS as touchdown favorites over that time span, including 5-1 ATS as 10+ point favorites. I have no problem laying the 19 here. This is going to be a bloodbath. The Seahawks are also my survivor pick.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Seattle -19

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1)

The 49ers lost in Seattle last week 29-3, but there’s no shame at all losing to the Seahawks in Seattle. Dating back to the start of last season, the Seahawks have won all 9 home games by an average score of 30-11. They should be able to bounce back this week, as they have every time after a loss since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season. The 49ers are 5-2 ATS off a loss in that time span, 7-2 ATS if you include week 1 games (games after a season ending playoff loss).

If you look closer, that’s even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. They’ve won those 7 games by an average margin of about 17 points per game, 23-6. They should be as motivated as they can be this week coming off of a loss and they might also be a little overlooked and undervalued after what happened this week.

The Colts, meanwhile, have had a lot of trouble against playoff caliber opponents over the past 2 seasons. Last year, they played 7 games against teams who finished .500 or better. They went 3-4 in those games, which isn’t awful, but those wins came by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses came by 20, 35, 12, and 15. They went as good as their 11-5 record would have suggested last season, because of all of those blowout losses (plus a 35-9 loss to the freaking Jets!) and because they had 7 wins by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 or fewer games. They were especially bad on the road last season, going 4-5 on the road with a point differential of -76 and an opponent’s overall record of 64-80.

They haven’t really looked any better this season, barely beating the Raiders at home and then losing to the Dolphins at home, a game in which they lost one of their only good offensive linemen, Donald Thomas, for the season. They will get Trent Richardson in this week through trade, but he’s unlikely to have much of an impact less than a week after joining this team. He might not even play on passing downs as he learns the blocking schemes, especially with Ahmad Bradshaw, one of the league’s premier passing down backs, behind him on the depth chart. Richardson will have an impact going forward, but the Colts should still get blown out this week by the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Indianapolis Colts 9

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

The Falcons have been destroyed by injuries thus far this season. Talented linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least 8 weeks after being put on short-term IR this week, taking away one of the few average or better starters the Falcons have on that side of the ball. Kroy Biermann, meanwhile, is out for the season with injury. He’s not the caliber of player that Weatherspoon is, but his absence will thin an already weak pass rush and force inexperienced youngsters into more action.

On top of that, they lost left tackle Sam Baker for at least this game. He’s really struggled thus far through 2 games, but his absence will force Lamar Holmes, who was already struggling on the right side, to play on the left side, while Jeremy Trueblood will start at right tackle. When we last saw Trueblood as a starter, he was one of the worst starting offensive tackles in the NFL, leading the NFL in quarterback hurries allowed in 2011. This offensive line was already struggling after losing both Tyson Clabo and Todd McClure this off-season, but Baker’s absence won’t make things better. Cameron Wake could dominate Lamar Holmes on the blindside.

They’ve also lost Steven Jackson for about 3 weeks with injury. In his absence, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling will handle the load, which could definitely be a concern. After Jackson went down last week, they managed just 36 yards on 13 carries. The organization has previously never seen either as a lead back type, starting the plodding Michael Turner ahead of them last season, which is not a positive sign for their ability to carry the load in Jackson’s absence.

Meanwhile, Roddy White is dealing with a high ankle injury that is seriously sapping his effectiveness. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez have had to step up in his absence and Jones had a huge game last week, catching 11 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. He probably won’t repeat that again, but he could still have a good game, even with a revitalized Brent Grimes likely matching up with him. Jones’ size advantage could be too much for White to overcome. Gonzalez could also have a big game, so I’m not too worried about the passing offense, but I have serious concerns about the offensive line, the defense, and the running game.

The fact that the Rams almost came back from what was once a 21-0 deficit to win last week, after all of the Falcons’ injuries, have to be concerning going forward. It’s especially concerning since Miami looks like a solid football team. They might not make the playoffs in the AFC, but they should at least win 8 games. It’s not going to be easy for the Falcons to come into Miami and win, especially considering their relative road struggles in the Matt Ryan era. We don’t have a lot of line value with the Dolphins as favorites, but I do like them to cover as short favorites. I’m not that confident in them though because they are making their home debut week 3, a situation teams are 20-40 ATS in since 1989. They could be exhausted from starting the season with two road games.

Miami Dolphins 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against spread: Miami -2

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Commanders, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2)

The Redskins aren’t making the playoffs in the loaded NFC after starting 0-2, but this wasn’t unpredictable. It’s going to take Robert Griffin a year or so to get back to where he was, just like it took Tom Brady when he tore his ACL in 2008. Mike Shanahan insists that the Redskins haven’t abandoned the read option and QB runs because of Griffin’s knee, but because of the game situation, as they’ve frequently been trailing and by a lot of points. That’s a very valid point, but it’s still very possible that Griffin isn’t comfortable running like he once did and either way, it’s probably going to remain a problem going forward.

This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL so they’re going to have to pass more than maybe they’d like. They’re starting two rookies in the secondary who are playing like it and the rest of the unit, outside of Kerrigan and Orakpo, is not much better. The Lions have the personnel to tear through their defense like Green Bay or Philadelphia did and establish another big lead. That will put the Redskins’ offense in situations where they can’t run their game plan and they probably wouldn’t be able to run it as effectively like they’d like to anyway because of Griffin’s injury situation. He’s just not as explosive as he was last year and his footwork and throwing mechanics are a mess.

The Redskins shouldn’t be favored here. The Lions are still a borderline playoff team in the loaded NFC in my eyes and one of the top-10 teams in the NFL overall. They only went 4-12 last year because of bad luck and other unsustainable things like inability to recover fumbles, turnovers going for touchdowns, poor special teams play, strength of schedule, and inability to win games decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t hold a loss in Arizona against them that much because Arizona is a capable football team and their week 1 win over Minnesota remains impressive.

Reggie Bush might miss this week with injury, but I’m not so sure that Joique Bell isn’t just as good. Bell was 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run among running backs last season, behind only Darren Sproles, and also averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 82 carries. This year, he had 10 catches for 105 yards on 13 targets and 37 routes run, along with 56 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. He’ll have a big game against Washington’s poor defense if pressed into action.

The Lions are also in a situation that favors them as they’re road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 88-52 ATS in that situation since 2008 and that trend hits about 65% historically, regardless of what year you use to cut off your sample size. I’m fairly confident they’ll pull off the “upset” win here in Washington this week.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Patriots, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at New England Patriots (2-0)

Tom Brady completed under 50% of his passes in a game last week for the first time since 2009 and it took a perfect storm for that to happen. It was a combination of the worst receiving corps he’s ever worked with, a Thursday Night game, and terrible weather. Two of those situations will be gone this week as the Patriots actually have extra time to prepare for this one and the weather is expected to be fine. Unfortunately, their receiving corps probably won’t be much better. Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen remain out and, while you never know with the Patriots, if I had to guess right now, I don’t think Rob Gronkowski is going to play.

I definitely underestimated Tom Brady’s ability to get this new receiving corps assimilated before the season started. Brady has had success with receivers that haven’t been that good in the past, but they’ve always been veterans. The Patriots’ system is incredibly complex because of all the timing routes and it’s very understandable that it would be overwhelming for rookie receivers, who tend to take a while to get adjusted to the NFL anyway. Even Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez didn’t put up huge numbers as rookies. They’ll have to hope that extra time to prepare and another week under their belts will lead to superior play from their rookies, which is certainly possible.

Fortunately, the Patriots have been given a very easy schedule to start their season, starting with the Bills and Jets and now with the 0-2 Buccaneers in New England, who actually lost to the Jets week 1. The Buccaneers are in shambles right now. Josh Freeman has now completed 131 of 262 (50.0%) for 1639 yards (6.3 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in his last 7 games, dating back to last season. Couple that with all of the reports coming out about him and it’s very hard to trust him to move the ball, especially against a Patriots defense that, at least early on, looks as good as it’s been in years.

As a result of Freeman’s struggles, the Buccaneers are converting just 60.5% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, which is only ahead of Jacksonville. Their defense is playing well, allowing just 72.9% of 1st and 10s to be converted for subsequent firsts, but the disparity is still the 3rd worst in the NFL, ahead of only Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. The Patriots, as bad as they’ve been offensively, actually rank 6th in this disparity, largely because their allowing opponents to convert just 55.6% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent first down, 2nd behind only the Jets in the NFL. Facing the Bills and the Jets helps, but the Buccaneers have also faced the Jets so it’s not like these two teams have played completely different schedules.

I think the Patriots have a very good chance to break out this week. The Patriots have had just 1 three game stretch without a 7+ point win since 2006. Meanwhile, after games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-15 ATS, including 18-6 ATS off a win. I’m not willing to put a lot of confidence on it, but I really feel like this is the week they finally sort of resemble the Patriots. This season really reminds me of 2006.With a new receiving corps, Brady started the season completing 50% of his passes, even less than this year, in near upset losses to the Bills and Jets, but the Patriots eventually got their act together and went 12-4, before eventually losing in the AFC Championship. That narrative could repeat itself.

New England Patriots 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: New England -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Last week: 1

The Seahawks 29-3 win over the 49ers is very impressive, but if they were to play in San Francisco this week, I would pick the 49ers. These two teams are more evenly matched than it appears this week because of Seattle’s ridiculous home field advantage. However, the Seahawks are still my pick of the two to win the division, get a first round bye, and go on to the Super Bowl as a result. No one is winning in Seattle this season. The 49ers, meanwhile, have 40+ years of history working against them coming off a Super Bowl loss.

Week 2 Studs

LE Cliff Avril

LE Michael Bennett

RE Red Bryant

DT Brandon Mebane

CB Walter Thurmond

Week 2 Duds

FB Derrick Coleman

LT Breno Giacomini

RT Paul McQuistan

LG James Carpenter

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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers, Uncategorized

Last week: 2

No shame in losing to the Seahawks in Seattle. No one won there last season and I don’t think anyone is winning there this season, including playoffs. Frank Gore’s slow start has to be concerning, however. He’s rushed for just 60 yards on 30 carries thus far this season. Ordinarily, it’s important not to overreact to 2 games, but Gore is a 30-year-old running back with 2259 career touches so you have to worry that he could just be done. Neither Kendall Hunter nor LaMichael James is capable of handling much of a bigger load, while Marcus Lattimore, the likely lead back of the future, is not expected to play this season as he recovers from injury.

Week 2 Studs

ROLB Aldon Smith

Week 2 Duds

QB Colin Kaepernick

FB Bruce Miller

WR Anquan Boldin

LT Joe Staley

LG Mike Iupati

RT Anthony Davis

CB Nnamdi Asomugha

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