If I have time, I will do the other position groups. Players are sorted in terms of expected market value.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick: It’s not a great free agency class at the quarterback position, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has arguably played the best football of his career over the past 3 seasons, completing 64.8% of his passes for 7.87 YPA, 50 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions in 27 starts in his age 36-38 seasons, and, even in going into his age 39 season, Fitzpatrick should be able to find a situation where he’ll have a good chance to start in 2021, if he chooses to keep playing, with at least three teams entering free agency with an obvious need at the quarterback position, Denver, Washington, and Chicago. 

As the top quarterback available, Fitzpatrick could have his pick of the three teams and Chicago gives Fitzpatrick both the best chance to win and the best chance to be a full-time starter, with the Bears lacking the cap space to make a splash move for another quarterback and lacking the high draft pick needed to select a top quarterback prospect. The Bears may have pipedreams of acquiring Russell Wilson, but Fitzpatrick is a much more realistic option who could be a legitimate upgrade at the position for a team that has been an upgrade at quarterback away from making it into the post-season in each of the past two seasons. The contract is a two-year deal worth up to 20 million, but incentivized and with no guaranteed money beyond 2021. A deal like that with a contender is probably the best Fitzpatrick can hope for this off-season.

Prediction: Signs with Chicago on an incentivized 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Jacoby Brissett: Brissett has youth on his side, only going into his age 29 season, and the 2016 3rd round pick isn’t inexperienced either, with 32 career starts. The problem is his experience hasn’t shown him to be more than a high end backup who can start if needed for stretches, but is overmatched as a 16-game starter. There are enough teams with uncertainty at the quarterback position that Brissett is likely to get an opportunity to compete for a starting job, but it’s very questionable whether he’s one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the league and it’s telling that the head coach who drafted him Bill Belichick traded him away from a depth wide receiver and opted to re-sign Cam Newton rather than re-acquire Brissett this off-season. 

Brissett would have a shot to start in either Washington or Denver, but he would likely have to take an incentivized deal with either one. I like Denver is likely to acquire Sam Darnold via trade, as John Elway was very high on Darnold just 3 years ago when he was coming out of USC, leaving Brissett to compete with Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke in Washington. I would expect him to make starts in that situation and it’s not a bad place for a quarterback to be with an elite defense supporting him, but I wouldn’t expect much of a ceiling from him.

Prediction: Signs with Washington on an incentivized 1-year, 12 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Jameis Winston: With Denver acquiring Sam Darnold, Winston doesn’t have an obvious destination for a starting job this off-season, other than staying where he is in New Orleans and competing with Taysom Hill for the starting job, with Drew Brees (allegedly) retiring. Staying with Sean Payton, a quarterback guru who clearly believes Winston’s turnover issues are fixable, would seem to be in Winston’s best interest.

Prediction: Re-signs with New Orleans on an incentivized 1-year, 10 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Mitch Trubisky: Trubisky is in a similar situation as Jameis Winston was in last year, coming off an up and down (but mostly down) stretch with the team that used a high pick to draft him and now finding that team looking for anyone and everyone to replace him. Like Winston, Trubisky’s best option this off-season is likely going to be taking a backup job somewhere with an established offensive coaching staff. 

The 49ers, who are known to be seeking a higher end backup for injury prone starter Jimmy Garoppolo, would certainly count, led by head coach Kyle Shanahan. Backing up Garoppolo would also likely mean that Trubisky would be likely to see action at some point, given Garoppolo’s injury history. Putting up a few games of good tape in a good quarterback situation in San Francisco could lead to him getting another starting job somewhere else down the road.

Prediction: Signs with San Francisco on a 2-year, 14 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Alex Smith: Smith is really tough to evaluate given his injury history. Washington understandably moved on from him rather than pay him 19 million for 2021, even though he was their best quarterback last season. He showed enough on tape that purely on ability he deserves to compete for a starting job somewhere, but that was a limited sample size and it’s concerning that he got hurt again just a few games into it. It’s unlikely any team is going to want to go into 2021 with Smith as a presumptive 16-game starter and it’s probably in his best interest long-term to take a backup job anyway and diminish his risk of a serious re-injury. 

I’ve seen Smith linked Urban Meyer, who was Smith’s college coach, and the Jaguars, where he would be a backup and mentor to #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, which would make some sense, but Smith may want to chase a ring more than anything if he’s going to be a backup and arguably the best place for him do that in 2021 is back with another former coach of his, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs, where he would give the Chiefs a high end insurance policy in case Pat Mahomes misses time with injury. Smith still has a good relationship with Reid and Mahomes and, having made over 190 million in his career, is unlikely to demand much money as a backup, which is important for the cap strapped Chiefs.

Prediction: Signs with Kansas City on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal with 1 million guaranteed

Andy Dalton: We’re firmly in the high end veteran backup part of the quarterback market, but there are still teams that have a big need for an experienced insurance option. The Giants, who had to turn to Colt McCoy last season when Daniel Jones got hurt, are a team that comes to mind, especially when you take into account that Jones has been inconsistent and injury prone through the first two years of his career. Having a mentor like Dalton around could be helpful for Jones’ long-term development as well.

Prediction: Signs with NY Giants on 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Tyrod Taylor: Here is another experienced veteran backup option. In two of the past three seasons, Taylor has (barely) kept the seat warm for highly drafted rookies in Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert, unfortunately getting hurt and losing his job early in both seasons. He’s unlikely to start week 1 anywhere in 2021 barring injury, but he could be a valuable backup for the Eagles, who have the inexperienced Jalen Hurts under center and little else behind him on the depth chart. Similar to Dalton in New York, Taylor would provide a valuable insurance policy and mentor for the Eagles’ young quarterback. 

Prediction: Signs with Philadelphia on 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones has been a valuable running back over the past 4 seasons for the Packers, rushing for 5.17 yards per carry and scoring 43 total touchdowns, with 30 of those touchdowns coming just in the past two seasons, but it seems unlikely he’ll be back in Green Bay. The Packers don’t have much financial flexibility and like the running backs they have behind him on the depth chart, while Jones seems likely to break the bank as one of the top offensive playmakers available this off-season. He might not reach the 15-16 million annually that running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara received on their new contracts, but he figures to come close. The Dolphins have the perfect combination of cap space, need at the position, and an opportunity to win that should entice Jones to join them, if they’re willing to meet his asking price.

Prediction: Signs with Miami on 3-year, 39 million dollar deal with 27 million guaranteed

Chris Carson: The Jets are my runner ups for Aaron Jones, as they would be able to offer the money and playing time Jones would want, but wouldn’t necessarily give him a chance to win right away. With Jones off the market, they turn to Chris Carson, the #2 running back available. He’s not as good as Jones, but he could end up being a better value and would be a big upgrade for a Jets team that badly needs one at the running back position.

Prediction: Signs with NY Jets on a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal with 19 million guaranteed

Kenyan Drake: The Cardinals acquired the underutilized Kenyan Drake from the Dolphins at the trade deadline in 2019 and he showed enough in a half season as their feature back to be franchise tagged as a free agent last off-season. His first full season in Arizona in 2020 wasn’t as good as his finish to 2019, but if his market doesn’t develop this off-season, the Cardinals could still welcome him back on a one-year deal. He would still cede some carries to promising backup Chase Edmonds, perhaps more in 2021 than in 2020, but the Cardinals would still give him one of his best chances at playing time.

Prediction: Re-signs with Arizona on a 1-year, 6 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Le’Veon Bell: Bell was seen as one of the top players at his position a few years ago, but he held out of the 2018 season, chased the money with the Jets in 2019, and played so badly that he got cut midway into the 2020 season, while still in the guaranteed portion of his deal. He then went to Kansas City where he hardly played as primarily an insurance policy. The Falcons took a chance on a once elite running back last season with Todd Gurley. That didn’t work out, but still in desperate need at the position and without much cap flexibility, they could take another shot on a player like Bell on a one-year prove it deal. Bell’s addition wouldn’t preclude them from using a draft pick on the position, but he would prevent them from having to rely on a rookie at the position.

Prediction: Signs with Atlanta on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

James Conner: Conner has had some impressive stretches as the Steelers’ lead back over the past few seasons, but he’s also been plagued with injuries and has been very inconsistent as a result. If his market doesn’t develop in a lowered cap off-season, his best move is probably going to be to go back to Pittsburgh on a one-year deal and try to re-establish his value. The Steelers would have a desperate need at the position without Conner and Conner is unlikely to find more money and playing time elsewhere.

Prediction: Re-signs with Steelers on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Jamaal Williams: While Jones is unlikely to return to Green Bay, Williams seems likely to. The Packers have used him more as a 1b to Jones’ 1a over the past two seasons, rather than as a true backup (290 touches to Jones’ 535), showing they clearly value their former 4th round pick. He won’t break the bank for the cap strapped Packers and working in tandem with 2020 2nd round pick AJ Dillon would give Williams his best opportunity to both see significant playing time and play on a winning team with a productive offense. It’s hard to see Williams wanting to leave Green Bay unless Jones returns.

Prediction: Re-signs with Green Bay on a 3-year, 14 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

James White: The Buccaneers used Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette in tandem last season and both fared pretty well on the ground, but neither of them are the kind of pass catching back Tom Brady was used to playing with in New England. With Fournette hitting free agency this off-season, why not take this opportunity to replace him with Brady’s former teammate James White, who is also a free agent this off-season. White won’t break the bank for the Buccaneers and would probably be more valuable to them than anyone. He’d be a great complement as a passing down back to early down back Ronald Jones.

Prediction: Signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Mike Davis: Mike Davis impressed as an injury replacement for Christian McCaffrey last season and, while the Panthers would like to have him back as an insurance policy, he can probably find more money and definitely more playing time elsewhere. His former team, the Seattle Seahawks, are reportedly interested and would make a lot of sense because they are a run heavy team whose top-2 running backs are hitting the open market this off-season, most notably lead back Chris Carson, who is probably going to be cost-prohibitive for the Seahawks this off-season. Davis is a cheaper replacement.

Prediction: Signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 9 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Leonard Fournette: With the Buccaneers replacing him with James White, Fournette finds another contender to latch on with. The Bills could use more talent at the running back position, but don’t have the financial flexibility to add a significant contract at the position. Fournette would only have to compete with unproven young running backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in Buffalo and would be joining an offense that was one of the league’s best last season.

Prediction: Signs with Buffalo on 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Marlon Mack: Mack was the Colts’ lead back in 2018 and 2019 and totalled 17 rushing touchdowns and a 4.52 YPC average on 442 carries, but he tore his achilles in week 1 last season and was replaced with rookie Jonathan Taylor, who is now entrenched as the Colts’ lead back. The Colts are highly unlikely to bring him back, but he could still find work as an early down back in a tandem. The Chargers have a great passing down/speed back in Austin Ekeler, but need a better early down complement for him. Mack would give them one without breaking the bank and the Chargers would give Mack his best opportunity to earn playing time and rehab his value for next off-season.

Prediction: Signs with LA Chargers on a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal with 2 million guaranteed

Duke Johnson: The Patriots lost James White to the Buccaneers, so they’ll need a replacement passing down back to complement early down backs Damien Harris and Sony Michel. Duke Johnson is a similar player who could catch a lot of passes in New England’s system.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Todd Gurley: After flopping in his opportunity in Atlanta last season, the former MVP candidate Todd Gurley will once again have to take a one-year prove it deal this off-season and likely for less than the 5 million he made in 2021. If they are interested, the 49ers would present an interesting opportunity for Gurley. Gurley thrived in a similar offense with the Rams and Kyle Shanahan is known for getting the most out of his running backs. The 49ers are not going to shell out big bucks for a free agent running back and Gurley wouldn’t be the lead back in San Francisco, but with Tevin Coleman and Jerrick McKinnon set to hit free agency, Gurley would add needed depth for the 49ers behind Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson and he would have his best chance to rehab his value for next off-season.

Prediction: Signs with San Francisco on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal with 1 million guaranteed

Carlos Hyde: Hyde is the Seahawks’ other free agent running back this off-season and he seems a lot more likely to return as he’s unlikely to be greeted with a robust market. The Seahawks can offer him familiarity, a winning team and playing time, competing with Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny for carries.

Prediction: Re-signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal with 4 million guaranteed

Wide Receivers

Kenny Golladay: Similar to Aaron Jones, Golladay is one of the top offensive playmakers available this off-season and could be attracted to the Dolphins for the same reasons, the money they can afford to pay him, the opportunity to play a big role, and the opportunity to play for a winner. Other teams will definitely be interested as he’s arguably the best unrestricted free agent available overall, after the Lions declined to franchise tag him, but the Dolphins can win a bidding war and give a very enticing opportunity to play opposite Devante Parker for an up and coming young team.

Prediction: Signs with Miami on a 4-year, 74 million dollar deal with 44 million guaranteed

JuJu Smith-Schuster: The Colts could also be in on Golladay and have everything the Dolphins have to offer, including significant cap space, but they’ve been reluctant to get in bidding wars for players in recent off-seasons. Instead, they could turn their attention to a slightly cheaper option and make Juju Smith-Schuster their long-term #1 wide receiver. He’s not as proven as Golladay, but he’s about 3 years younger and could be the better player in the long run.

Prediction: Signs with Indianapolis on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal with 32 million guaranteed

Will Fuller: The Jaguars have a trio of wide receiver free agents in Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley, and Keelan Cole and, with the most cap space in the league, they can afford to be aggressive in finding a replacement to play with DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault long-term. Will Fuller is one of the top wide receivers available this off-season and the Jaguars would be taking him from their divisional rival, where he was Deshaun Watson’s #1 wide receiver last season in DeAndre Hopkins’ absence. His addition would give Trevor Lawrence a talented wide receiver trio from day one.

Prediction: Signs with Jacksonville on a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal with 30 million guaranteed

Corey Davis: The Ravens don’t have a ton of needs, but they badly need another wide receiver for Lamar Jackson and, with Jackson still on a cheap rookie deal, they have the cap space to spend at the top of the money and be aggressive while Jackson still has a low cap hit. The big bodied Davis would be a perfect complement for emerging speedster Marquise Brown. The former 5th overall pick finally played like it in his 4th season in the league last season, averaging 2.58 yards per route run (5th among wide receivers), and is dripping with upside on his second contract.

Prediction: Signs with Baltimore on a 4-year, 56 million dollar deal with 31 million guaranteed

Curtis Samuel: Samuel was the Panthers’ #3 receiver last season, but he’ll likely be valued much more than that in free agency, especially since the former 2nd round pick still has the upside to keep getting better, only going into his age 25 season. He’d be a perfect fit in Arizona because of his ability to make plays with the ball in space and line up in multiple spots and the Cardinals have both the need and the cap space to go after someone like Samuel. He won’t get top wide receiver money, but still figures to cost a significant amount, after finishing with 1,051 yards from scrimmage in 2020.

Prediction: Signs with Arizona on a 3-year, 36 million dollar deal with 25 million guaranteed

Antonio Brown: Brown would be a tough case if not for the fact that he’ll almost definitely be back with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Brown has #1 wide receiver talent but obvious baggage and is going into his age 33 season, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Buccaneers value him, especially since they may be the only team willing to take a chance on Brown.

Prediction: Re-signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

TY Hilton: The Patriots have a top of cap space and a massive need at the wide receiver position, but I expect them to exploit this deep wide receiver class rather than splurging for one guy at the top of the market. They’ve never paid top dollar for free agents unless they’re All-Pro caliber and none of the wide receivers available are and they need more than one wide receiver anyway. Belichick and the Patriots have faced off with TY Hilton on several occasions and Belichick may take advantage of the opportunity to get the aging, but still effective former Colts #1 wide receiver on a relatively inexpensive short-term deal.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal with 12 million guaranteed

Marvin Jones: The Packers don’t have much cap space, but they could restructure some contracts to take advantage of a deep wide receiver class and get a much needed veteran #2 receiver to play opposite Davante Adams. Jones fits the bill, ahead of his age 31 season, and has the added benefit of further weakening division rival Detroit, where Jones has spent the past 5 seasons.

Prediction: Signs with Green Bay on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 17 million guaranteed

John Brown: Brown was released by the Bills ahead of a non-guaranteed 8 million dollar salary, but that had more to do with the Bills having limited cap space and having great depth at the wide receiver position. Brown is going into his age 31 season, but has shown he’s still a capable #2 receiver when healthy and is just a season removed from a 72/1060/6 slash line in 2019, so he’ll draw interest this off-season. The Jets have a need at the position and the money to spend more than this, but probably won’t be seen as a prime destination for top free agent destinations. Someone like Brown could be enticed by the money on a short-term deal in a depressed market. He would join Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims as the Jets top wide receivers.

Prediction: Signs with NY Jets on 1-year, 8 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Nelson Agholor: Agholor was a bit of a laughing stock when he left the Eagles because of his tendency to commit drops and his limited production in his final season in 2019. That allowed the Raiders to get him cheap on a 1-year, 1.1 million dollar deal and the former first round pick responded with the best year of his career, with a 48/896/8 slash line on just 82 targets. Agholor comes with plenty of downside, but he’s topped 700 yards in 3 of 6 seasons in the league and has shown for stretches why he was a first round pick. The Raiders seem likely to value him more than most teams and have indicated a desire to sign him to a long-term deal.

Prediction: Re-signs with Las Vegas on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 14 million guaranteed

Sammy Watkins: Watkins is somehow only going into his age 28 season and still has theoretical upside, but the former 4th overall pick hasn’t topped 673 yards in a season since his dominant 2015 season, despite spending the past 3 seasons on the most explosive passing offense in the league. He has still shown flashes, but he hasn’t played a full 16 game season since 2014, he’s missed 23 games in the past 5 seasons, and most importantly, his injuries seem to have sapped his athleticism. He’s still a worthwhile flier on a one-year deal because he can at least be a #2 wide receiver if healthy, he has the upside to be more than that, and he’s unlikely to even command the 9 million he made last season because of his continuing injury issues. The wide receiver needy Patriots could take a shot as they need to add multiple options to one of the thinnest wide receiver groups in the league.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 1-year, 6 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

AJ Green: The Titans don’t have much financial flexibility this off-season, but they’ll need to find help at the wide receiver position behind AJ Brown, with Adam Humphries being a cap casualty and Corey Davis likely to sign elsewhere this off-season. AJ Green could be a fit as a low cost flyer. Green missed 23 of 32 games from 2018-2019 and was not the same in his return in his age 32 season in 2020, posting a 47/523/2 slash line, but he’s not totally over the hill and may have just not been motivated last season in Cincinnati, where he had no desire to be without a long-term deal. He may have a tough time finding a long-term deal this off-season, but the Titans would give him an opportunity for significant playing time on a contender and he would fit in their limited budget if his market predictably doesn’t develop.

Prediction: Signs with Tennessee on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Rashard Higgins: Higgins showed a good rapport with Baker Mayfield down the stretch in 2018, with a 18/255/2 slash line in his final 5 games, but was inexplicably not utilized by inept head coach Freddie Kitchens in 2019, before a more capable coaching staff decided to utilize him again in 2020, even starting him as the #2 wide receiver in the absence of the injured Odell Beckham, a 11-game stretch (including playoffs) in which Higgins had a 39/662/2 slash line. He says he’d like to be back in Cleveland, but the Browns already have big money committed to two wide receivers and a tight end and are unlikely to outbid teams for a player who would be their #3 wide receiver with Beckham back next season. A team like Washington, who needs a #2 wide receiver and has cap space to spend, will be able to offer more playing time and money.

Prediction: Signs with Washington on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal with 15 million guaranteed

Emmanuel Sanders: The Panthers have DJ Moore and Robby Anderson and paid up for tight end Jonnu Smith, so they’re unlikely to spend much on a #3 receiver to replace Curtis Samuel. Emmanuel Sanders, released by the Saints to save 6.5 million, could have a tough time finding significant guarantees this off-season, ahead of his age 34 season. The Panthers could take a shot on someone like him.

Prediction: Signs with Carolina on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal with 3 million guaranteed

Josh Reynolds: Reynolds has never been much more than a #3/#4 receiver with the Rams, but the Rams have always had a deep receiving corps and Reynolds is likely to be valued as more on the open market. The Bengals have ties to him through head coach Zac Taylor, who also comes from the Rams, and they have a need at the wide receiver position, with AJ Green likely leaving this off-season. The Bengals have been hesitant to spend money in free agency historically, but they showed a willingness to spend more last off-season and they have among the most cap space in the league again this off-season. Reynolds would add another young (age 26) wide receiver to a trio of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals could easily value him more than anyone else.

Prediction: Signs with Cincinnati on a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal with 14 million guaranteed

Kendrick Bourne: Bourne is probably best as a #3 wide receiver, but he showed himself to be a little more than that last season with the 49ers with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both intermittently dealing with injuries, leading to Bourne getting 74 targets, which he turned into a 49/667/2 slash line. He says he wants to return to the 49ers, but is likely to get more playing time and money elsewhere. The Lions don’t have more financial flexibility, but still need wide receiver help even after signing Tyrell Williams, as they’re set to lose their top-3 wide receivers this off-season. They can sign someone like Bourne to a multi-year deal and keep his first year cap hit low.

Prediction: Signs with Detroit on a 3-year, 19 million dollar deal with 9 million guaranteed

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: The Patriots didn’t make a huge splash in the wide receiver market despite having a ton of cap space, but they could make one at the tight end position. Given how valuable the tight end position has been to this offense historically, I think it’s more likely the Patriots spent 12-13 million annually at the top of the tight end market than 18-20 million annually at the top of the wide receiver market, especially given how much deeper the wide receiver market is. Henry might not quite be an elite tight end, but he’s one of the few tight ends in the league who is an above average pass catcher and an above average run blocker, which is badly needed in this offense.

Prediction: Signs with New England on a 4-year, 52 million dollar deal with 20 million guaranteed

Jonnu Smith: The Panthers are another team with a desperate need at the tight end position and, while they don’t have the cap space or the coaching staff that New England has, they do have a good enough situation to appeal to Jonnu Smith, the 2nd best tight end available. A quick look at his stats don’t show him to be much, but the former 3rd round pick has always split time on a run heavy team. His efficiency stats, particularly over the past two seasons (1.64 yards per route run), his athleticism, and his youth (26 in August) all suggest he is someone whose production could explode in the right situation. He won’t be cheap, but he’s a much needed piece for a Panthers team that can afford to spend at the top of the market.

Prediction: Signs with Carolina on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal with 17 million guaranteed 

Gerald Everett: Everett is another player whose production looks a lot better when you consider he split time with Tyler Higbee throughout his tenure with the Rams. It’s likely he’ll be valued as a starter this off-season, particularly by a team that had a high grade on the former 44th overall pick when he came out in 2017. I don’t know how the Chargers’ decision makers will view Everett, but they have a big need for a pass catcher at the position with Hunter Henry gone and they have the financial flexibility to spend a decent amount to replace him. Everett’s production could explode with an increased target share in a Justin Herbert led offense.

Prediction: Signs with LA Chargers on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal with 10 million guaranteed

Rob Gronkowski: There is no doubt that Rob Gronkowski will be back with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, even if he could command more money elsewhere. The Buccaneers don’t have a ton of financial flexibility, but will find a way to fit Gronk in on a team friendly short-term deal.

Prediction: Re-signs with Tampa Bay on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 6 million guaranteed

Jared Cook: This is a shallow tight end class and there are a bunch of teams in need of upgrades at the position. One team that could be more convincing than most are the Bills, who are one of the top Super Bowl contenders heading into next season and are reportedly looking for an upgrade at the position. Cook isn’t an every down player anymore, but the Bills have Dawson Knox as well and wouldn’t have to pay much for Cook, important given their cap situation. For Cook, Buffalo would give the 34-year-old a chance at a late career Super Bowl run.

Prediction: Signs with Buffalo on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Kyle Rudolph: Released by the Vikings last month ahead of a 8 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, Rudolph has been linked to the Patriots, but they shoot higher here, leaving Rudolph to go elsewhere. He won’t command much money in his age 32 season with declining production, but the Seahawks can offer him a good mix of playing time and playoff contention and would like to find a replacement for the retired Greg Olsen without breaking the bank.

Prediction: Signs with Seattle on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed

Trades can’t officially be accepted until the start of the NFL’s new league year in March, but the Detroit Lions have agreed to a deal sending quarterback Matt Stafford, who has made 165 starts in 12 seasons with the team, to the Los Angeles Rams, less than two weeks after Stafford made his request to be traded known to the Lions organization. I was expecting the Lions to maybe get a late first round pick, or a high second round pick and another pick, but instead they get back two first round picks and a third round pick in draft compensation. At first glance, that seems like a clear win, but this deal is much more complicated. 

With the Rams already not having their own 2021 first round pick from the Jalen Ramsey trade they made in 2019, the Rams are sending 2022 and 2023 first round picks to the Lions in this deal, so the Lions will have to wait for their premium draft picks, although the Lions do get the third round pick this year. This deal also doesn’t just involve Stafford going to the Rams, but a swap of these two teams’ starting quarterbacks, as now-former Rams Jared Goff’s inclusion in this trade was necessary for salary reasons. 

In evaluating this trade, it makes more sense to view it as a trade of starting quarterbacks with draft compensation included, rather than the other way around, even if the draft picks are the most important assets in this deal. I will get to a comparison of the two quarterbacks on the field in a little bit, but these two quarterbacks’ contracts also need to be taken into account. Signed to a 4-year, 134 million dollar extension in September 2019 by the Rams, Goff got a big chunk of his contract in a signing bonus (25 million), but is still effectively guaranteed about 53 million over the next 2 seasons. The Lions could cut him after this season and save some money, but they’d still be paying him 43 million for just 1 season, so that’s unlikely unless he really struggles.

Stafford, meanwhile, makes just 43 million over the next 2 seasons and none of it is guaranteed, though it’s obviously highly unlikely the Rams would cut Stafford at any point, given the overall compensation they’re giving up for him. The Rams could extend Stafford next off-season ahead of the final year of his deal and Stafford would likely command a pay increase on an extension, but that extension would kick in after the two years remaining on Stafford’s deal, so we can effectively compare these two quarterbacks on their pay over the next 2 seasons, with Goff being the higher priced quarterback by about 10 million. 

The Browns got a 2nd round pick from the Texans to take on the remaining 16 million guaranteed that was owed to Brock Osweiler, so it’s reasonable to expect 10 million to get you about a third round pick. Let’s assume the 2021 third round pick in this deal is compensation for the salary difference between the two quarterbacks and that the two future first round picks are compensation for the talent difference between the two quarterbacks. 

Pushing a year out a pick usually gets you the equivalent of an extra round in the draft the next year (2020 3rd round picks being traded for 2021 2nd round picks for example) and by that standard the Lions are only getting a second and a third round pick for Stafford, but it’s not quite that simple, as the Lions seem to be headed into a much needed multi-year rebuild and might not mind waiting a year or two for these picks as much as another team would, while the Rams are putting themselves into a situation where they will have traded away in pre-draft trades their first round pick in 6 in 7 seasons from 2017-2023, with the exception being a first round pick they traded down from on draft day in 2019 and their last actual first round selection being Goff, back in 2016. 

Is Stafford enough of an upgrade from Goff to justify that? The answer comes down to how much do you believe Goff benefits from playing in Sean McVay’s system with consistently good talent around him. Goff’s quarterback rating over the past four seasons is less than 3 points lower than Stafford’s and he’s 6 years younger with less of a recent injury history, but he’s played in a much better situation, while Stafford has consistently been held back by subpar supporting casts and coaching. 

Perhaps most telling is the fact that McVay, who is widely considered to have had a huge hand in Goff’s development from a raw rookie to a quarterback who can at least be effective with the right pieces around him, seems to think this team would be a lot better off with another quarterback. Despite that, this is still a very interesting return for the Lions. With a roster that was going nowhere, a quarterback who wanted out, and no financial flexibility ahead of free agency, the Lions rightfully seem to be taking the long-term view with this team. First they hired 44-year-old Dan Campbell on a 6-year contract to be their head coach and now they pull the trigger on this move. 

This deal doesn’t give the Lions more financial flexibility, but it resolves the quarterback issue in the short-term without the use of their 7th overall pick and it gives them much needed draft capital in 2022 and 2023, either to move up for a long-term quarterback option or to build out the rest of this roster. It’s highly unlikely Goff is going to find some untapped potential in Detroit that he didn’t have in Los Angeles with McVay, but he’s still only going into his age 27 season and could be a serviceable starter for a rebuilding team that likely isn’t going to win a lot of games over the next couple seasons regardless.

For the Rams, this is a continued bet on their ability to draft and develop players outside of the first round. Despite their recent lack of first round picks, half of the 26 players who played at least 450 snaps on either side of the ball last season are home grown, from the 2015-2019 drafts, outside of the first round. That doesn’t include the 2020 draft, which saw 6th round pick Jordan Fuller make 12 starts as a rookie and 2nd round pick Cam Akers emerge as a feature back down the stretch.

History suggests the draft is more of a crap shoot than anything. The Pete Carroll/John Schneider Seahawks were known for finding late round gems in the early 2010s, but a look at their recent drafts clearly shows their hit rate has regressed to the mean and then some. Bill Belichick’s Patriots found arguably the greatest quarterback and tight end of all-time, both outside of the first round, along with a #1 receiver and Super Bowl MVP in the 7th round and several other draft steals, but even his record has some clear misses on it.

To the Rams’ credit, they seem to understand the value of trading back on draft day as much as any team, including New England, treating the draft as the likely unpredictable event that it is and going with a quantity over quality approach in terms of draft picks, maximizing their chances of finding a steal. The Rams might not have selected in the first round since 2016, but they have still selected 36 times overall over their past 4 drafts. Ultimately, this is a deal that makes sense for both teams, though there are obvious risks with both sides as both teams take to make the most of imperfect situations.

1. Los Angeles Chargers 

Pros – Young franchise quarterback, talented roster, cap space to be aggressive in free agency

Cons – Ownership, lack of fanbase

The Chargers are one of the only two teams on this list with the most valuable asset in the NFL, a young franchise quarterback, Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Justin Herbert. However, unlike the other team the Texans, the Chargers have talent on the rest of this roster as well and, because their franchise quarterback is on a cheap rookie deal, they have the financial flexibility to add more talent this off-season, entering the off-season with the 9th projected most cap space in the league. 

There are concerns about the ownership and the lack of fanbase (once fans are allowed back in stadiums), but all of the available jobs have their warts and the Chargers’ job looks to be the clear best of the bunch. That is likely to be the consensus among head coaching candidates as well, so the Chargers could have their pick of the bunch. 

No head coaching candidate has been more popular than Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who has interviewed for every available position after three seasons coordinating the league’s most explosive offense in Kansas City with Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid, so he could have his pick of jobs. A pairing between him and Herbert and the Chargers would make a lot of sense.

Prediction: Eric Bieniemy, Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Coordinator

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Pros – #1 pick, tons of cap space

Cons – Weak roster

The Jaguars may seem like an unattractive opening, given that they finished with the worst record in the league last season, but this was always part of a long-term rebuild and the Jaguars are armed with an extra first round pick and a lot of cap space to build their roster and, of course, because they were the worst team in the league last season, they get the right to draft Trevor Lawrence, once of the top quarterback prospects in decades. 

This could be a quick rebuild and any head coach who takes this job will have relatively low expectations to start. Compared to the other options, there is a lot to like here. Multiple reports suggest the Jaguars are locked onto former college championship winning head coach Urban Meyer and are waiting on his decision to come out of retirement, at age 56.

Prediction: Urban Meyer, Former Ohio State University Head Coach

3. Philadelphia Eagles

Pros – Good players on both sides of the ball, ownership/front office, #6 pick, quarterback?

Cons – No financial flexibility, likely need to cut players, quarterback?

The Eagles are late to the game after somewhat surprisingly firing Doug Pederson earlier this week and they’re a complicated case overall. Probably more than any team on this list, the Eagles are a well-run organization from top to bottom and, despite their record last season, they have a lot of individually talented players. They also have a premium draft pick by virtue of their record last season, picking 6th overall. However, they’re already far over next year’s cap before re-signing free agents and may need to let some very talented players go, or further sacrifice depth on a top-heavy roster.

Then there is the matter of their quarterback situation, which could be viewed as either a positive or a negative depending on the incoming coach’s view of this team’s quarterback options. Some may see Carson Wentz as an exciting reclamation project who, prior to last season’s disastrous performance, had always been a capable starter and at times an MVP candidate, and some may see 2020 2nd round pick Jalen Hurts as an exciting young quarterback prospect, but the Eagles don’t seem to have a clear plan at the position and wouldn’t be able to get appropriate value for either quarterback if they were to move on right now. 

The Eagles may be a little behind, but they can still get a good offensive coach to help resolve this situation, with Arthur Smith or perhaps Joe Brady looking like strong early options. I have Brady going elsewhere, but Smith would still be a strong hire. In two seasons as the Titans’ offensive coordinator, Smith unlocked Derrick Henry as a feature back, coaxed a mid-career breakout out of Ryan Tannehill, and orchestrated one of the best offenses in the league in back-to-back seasons. Only 38, Smith is an exciting young candidate that is in high demand this off-season.

Prediction: Arthur Smith, Tennessee Titans Offensive Coordinator

4. Houston Texans 

Pros – Deshaun Watson

Cons – Weak roster, no first round pick, lack of financial flexibility, ownership/front office, Deshaun Watson?

I alluded to the Texans’ situation earlier, but I didn’t include the added wrinkle that the Texans don’t have their own first round pick this year and that star quarterback Deshaun Watson may want out. Add in the questions around their front office and ownership, their cap situation (7th least projected cap space in the league), and a roster that is arguably the league’s worst outside of the quarterback position and there are a lot of concerns about this opportunity.

So why do they rank ahead of other opportunities with so many cons and just one pro (who may want out)? Because Watson is that good. When you have a superstar quarterback like that in the prime of his career, other things tend to fall into place much more easily. Even if the Texans are forced to trade Watson, he would command a king’s ransom including multiple premium picks, which, along with the cap space freed up by moving Watson, would allow the Texans to adequately rebuild the rest of this roster long-term.

The Texans seem to be focused on the short-term in their coaching search, interviewing several older former head coaches like Jim Caldwell, Leslie Frazier, and Marvin Lewis. They seem more likely to hire a steady hand that has experience being in playoff races to assure their veterans they plan on continuing to try to compete, rather than rebuilding with a young head coach. 

Caldwell is reportedly the favorite for the job. He’s an unexciting hire who has never really moved the needle as a head coach in his first two opportunities with the Colts and Lions, but he’s guided talented teams and has a winning record overall, including playoff appearances in 4 of 7 seasons (2-4). 

A football lifer, Caldwell, 65, coached in some capacity at the NFL or collegiate level for 41 straight seasons from 1977-2017, including a stint as Wake Forest’s head coach and pair of Super Bowl victories, as the Colts quarterbacks coach and then as the Ravens’ offensive coordinator. Caldwell unretired for a year to be an assistant in Miami in 2019, before sitting out 2020, and seems likely to be willing to return a third time in 2021, for the right opportunity.

Prediction: Jim Caldwell, Former Detroit Lions Head Coach

5. Atlanta Falcons

Pros – More talented than 4-12 record, #4 pick

Cons – Aging roster, limited financial flexibility

The Falcons went just 4-12 last season, but their four losses in which they had a 95% chance to win in the 4th quarter, their 2-8 record in one score games, and their -18 point differential suggest this is a team that is a lot more talented than that record. That record also gets them the 4th overall pick. However, they have a relatively old roster without a lot of financial flexibility (3rd least cap space in the league) and might max out as a .500 team with this roster. 

The Falcons seem committed to keeping highly paid stars Matt Ryan and Julio Jones as they go into their mid-30s, so the incoming head coach will be expected to compete relatively quickly, which is possible, but not given, with this roster. The Falcons can add to this roster with their high draft pick, but they could also use the pick on a quarterback with an eye on the future, as Ryan is going into his age 36 season and isn’t getting cheaper. 

Hiring a young offensive coach may make that more likely and reports suggest they’re down to either Arthur Smith or divisional rival Joe Brady, who coordinated an overachieving Panthers offense in his first season as an NFL offensive coordinator, after coordinating a record setting offense at the college level with LSU in 2019. Also experienced as an assistant with fellow division rival New Orleans, Brady has an impressive resume for a 31-year-old and seems likely to get a shot at a head coach job, if not this off-season then within the next couple years.

Prediction: Joe Brady, Carolina Panthers Offensive Coordinator

6. New York Jets 

Pros – #2 pick, cap space

Cons – Ownership, weak roster, quarterback situation

This job would have been a lot more attractive had the Jets held on to the #1 overall pick and had the rights to select Trevor Lawrence. The Jets still have the #2 pick and the cap space to add to this roster this off-season, but they have an unfavorable ownership situation and they have the kind of roster where the cap space they have and the #2 overall pick don’t seem like enough to turn this around quickly. 

The #2 overall pick plays into the uncertainty at quarterback, where the Jets will have to decide between keeping 2018 3rd overall pick Sam Darnold, guaranteeing him 25 million for injury in 2022, and trading away the #2 pick for more draft assets, or using the #2 pick on his replacement and trading Darnold for lesser draft assets. Darnold is only going into his age 24 season and could still develop into a starter somewhere else, while any quarterback they take #2 overall would not be a sure thing, but Darnold’s contract situation is much less favorable than a rookie’s and passing on a franchise quarterback in the draft could easily come back to haunt them as well. Whoever the quarterback is, the Jets will undoubtedly have to do more to support them in 2021.

The Jets may be passed over by some of the best coaching candidates, but they could still get a good candidate from division rival Buffalo. Daboll has only interviewed with the Chargers aside from the Jets and, though the Chargers seem to like Daboll, I have them going elsewhere in this scenario, leaving the Jets to get the guy responsible for helping develop Josh Allen into a franchise quarterback. The Jets would be hoping he could do the same in New York, either with Darnold or a rookie like Justin Fields or Zack Wilson. Daboll, 45, also has experience on Bill Belichick’s staff in New England and on Nick Saban’s staff at the University of Alabama, winning championships in both spots.

Prediction: Brian Daboll, Buffalo Bills Offensive Coordinator

7. Detroit Lions

Pros – Some good players, #7 pick

Cons – Ownership, mediocre roster, limited financial flexibility

The Lions aren’t the worst team on this list, but it was hard to find big pluses for them. They do have some talented players in Matt Stafford, DeAndre Swift, TJ Hockenson, Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, and Trey Flowers, as well as pending free agent Kenny Golladay and they have the 7th overall pick to add to this team, but they don’t have a lot of financial flexibility, even before re-signing or franchise tagging Golladay, and they may be maxed out with their current roster. 

Injuries were a big part of the problem for this team in 2021, most notably Golladay and Flowers, leading to a 5-11 finish, but, even with better health in 2021, it’s hard to see this as much better than a middling team. They could opt to rebuild, using the 7th overall pick on a quarterback and either sitting him for a year or trading Stafford to get draft compensation and financial flexibility to build around their rookie quarterback, but it wouldn’t be a quick rebuild. 

Robert Saleh, 41, is one of the most in-demand young head coaching candidates, coordinating a dominant 49ers defense to a Super Bowl appearance in 2019 and then arguably doing a better job in 2020, when the 49ers still finished in the top-10 in most defensive metrics, despite missing half of their roster. He could probably get a better job than this, but he’s been rumored to Detroit because he’s from the area and they could certainly use his defensive minded coaching after fielding arguably the worst defense in the league last season.

Prediction: Robert Saleh, San Francisco 49ers Defensive Coordinator

33. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State)

Teams typically pick another offensive player after drafting a quarterback in the first round. The Bengals are pretty set with skill position players, but they could definitely use help on the offensive line. Ezra Cleveland could have easily gone in the first round and could be an instant upgrade at the right tackle position.

34. Indianapolis Colts – WR Denzel Mims (Baylor)

The Colts apparently had their eyes on Brandon Aiyuk, but the 49ers took him in the first round. Maybe they’ll target another wide receiver at 34, given how deep this wide receiver class is. They need another receiver for the long-term to go with TY Hilton and last year’s 2nd round pick Parris Campbell.

35. Detroit Lions – DE Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State)

The Lions surprisingly didn’t move down from the 3rd pick, even though they likely still could have gotten Jeff Okudah a few picks later and even though they have needs all across the roster. They should just take the best available player left on the board at 35 and Yetur Gross-Matos, an expected first round pick, would make a lot of sense for them, given their need for another defensive end opposite Trey Flowers.

36. New York Giants – S Grant Delpit (LSU)

Surprisingly no safeties went in the first round. It’s not a great safety class, but one or both of Grant Delpit and Xavier McKinney were expected to go in the first. Perhaps the Giants will be the first team to take a safety this year and select one of those two to start opposite Jabrill Peppers. This could be either Delpit or McKinney, but Delpit seems to be higher rated overall.

37. New England Patriots – OLB Zach Baun (Wisconsin)

The Patriots traded down from 23, which made sense because they wouldn’t have picked again until 87 had they selected there. They may still be able to get whoever they were targeting at 23 at 37. Baun would have made some sense for them in the first round and is a much better value at this point in the draft. He’s a hybrid defensive end/linebacker and will fit in perfectly in New England in the old Kyle Van Noy role.

38. Carolina Panthers – CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah)

Top cornerback James Bradberry was a big loss in free agency and the Panthers didn’t do anything to replace him. They’re very thin at cornerback, so a rookie could play a big role. This could easily be a position they target at the top of the second round.

39. Miami Dolphins – RB D’Andre Swift (Georgia)

Some thought the Dolphins were going to take a running back at 30 after moving down with the Packers, but they went cornerback instead. Maybe they are targeting a running back with this pick. They have probably the thinnest running back depth chart in the league, so they have to address the position at some point.

40. Houston Texans – DT Ross Blacklock (TCU)

The Texans are pretty thin on the defensive line after losing DJ Reader to the Bengals in free agency. They don’t have many picks to work with because of their asinine trade spree over the past year with Bill O’Brien in charge of everything, but they need to address the defensive line at some point. Blacklock would be a good value if he fell to 40.

41. Cleveland Browns – DE AJ Epenesa (Iowa)

The Browns could use a long-term bookend for Myles Garrett. Olivier Vernon is highly paid (15.5 million in 2020) and in the final year of his contract, so he might not be around much longer and they don’t have great depth at the position either.

42. Jacksonville Jaguars – RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

The Jaguars are reportedly trying to trade Leonard Fournette. Even if they end up keeping him for 2020, he’s going into the final year of his contract, so I don’t expect him to be around beyond this season. The Jaguars lack another good option behind him on the depth chart though, so they’ll have to address this position in the draft.

43. Chicago Bears – CB Kristian Fulton (LSU)

The Bears had to move on from starting cornerback Prince Amukamara this off-season for cap purposes and didn’t have the financial flexibility to find a real replacement. If the season was to start today, they’d likely be starting former Steelers first round pick Artie Burns. The Bears didn’t have their first rounder because of the Khalil Mack trade, but they have two picks in the 2nd round and should look to add a cornerback who could play immediately if needed.

44. Indianapolis Colts – S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)

The Colts could use a better starting safety option opposite Malik Hooker. Xavier McKinney was considered a potential first round pick and top safety off the board, so he’d be a great value at this point.

45. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – RB JK Dobbins (Ohio State)

The Buccaneers continue adding help for Tom Brady, after drafting offensive tackle Mekhi Becton in the first round. Running back is a big need as well, with the Buccaneers needing a more reliable complement to Ronald Jones. Look for them to take one of the day 2 running backs.

46. Denver Broncos – OT Josh Jones (Houston)

The Broncos got young Drew Lock some receiving help in the first round with Jerry Jeudy. Now they get him some help upfront. Left tackle Garret Bolles has been a disappointment since going in the first round in 2017 because of his extreme tendency to commit penalties and could be on his last chance in 2020. Jones gives them insurance at left tackle and should have the versatility to kick inside to guard if needed.

47. Atlanta Falcons – DE Julian Okwara (Notre Dame)

The Falcons passed on K’Lavon Chaisson in the first round and filled a bigger need at cornerback, but they could still use edge rush help. Look for them to target this position on day 2 as they continue to try to build their defense.

48. New York Jets – WR Tee Higgins (Clemson)

Most expected the Jets to go wide receiver in the first round, but they took an offensive lineman instead. Perhaps they love the depth of this wide receiver class and think they can get a great value on day 2. Tee Higgins in the middle of the 2nd round would qualify as a great value and would be a big addition for a Jets team that lacks a long-term #1 receiver and needs an immediate option to play in 3-wide receiver sets with Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder.

49. Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Jacob Eason (Washington)

If there’s one thing the Steelers learned in Ben Roethlisberger’s absence last season, it’s that neither Mason Rudolph nor Devlin Hodges are their quarterback of the future. With Roethlisberger going into his age 38 season and coming off of a serious injury, the Steelers need a good backup plan and a long-term option at the position.

50. Chicago Bears – WR KJ Hamler (Penn State)

The Bears need to find a wide receiver to play in three wide receiver sets with Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. Hamler may remind Matt Nagy of Tyreek Hill, or at least of Taylor Gabriel.

51. Dallas Cowboys – S Antoine Winfield (Minnesota)

The Cowboys had CeeDee Lamb fall into their lap in the first round, but had that not happened many were expecting them to take a defensive back. Winfield could either provide depth at cornerback or play safety long-term, with HaHa Clinton-Dix only on a one-year deal.

52. Los Angeles Rams – OLB Josh Uche (Michigan)

The Rams lost both Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews this off-season. They signed Leonard Floyd, but he’s not much of a pass rusher and he’s only on a one-year deal. Samson Ebukam, the other projected starter, is also set to hit free agency next off-season. They desperately need a talented young edge rusher.

53. Philadelphia Eagles – S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne)

The Eagles lost Malcolm Jenkins this off-season and didn’t bring in an obvious replacement. After addressing their glaring need at wide receiver in the first round, I expect the Eagles to turn their attention to defensive needs like safety on day 2.

54. Buffalo Bills – DE Jabari Zuinga (Florida)

The Bills lost Shaq Lawson and Lorenzo Alexander this off-season, so they need to replenish depth at the edge defender spot. They signed Mario Addison in free agency, but need one more player in the mix. A young player makes sense, with Addison going into his age 33 season and fellow starter Jerry Hughes going into his age 32 season.

55. Baltimore Ravens – WR Michael Pittman (USC)

The Ravens aren’t a passing team and when they do pass they mostly feature tight ends, but the Ravens still need to get Lamar Jackson a reliable wide receiver option opposite Marquise Brown. Their lack of talent at wide receiver was evident in their playoff loss to the Titans. Pittman is a bigger player who would complement the speedier Brown well.

56. Miami Dolphins – DT Marlon Davidson (Auburn)

The Dolphins pick for the 5th time already, but still have plenty of needs they can fill. Davidson is a great value at this point and would provide much needed depth behind Christian Wilkins and Davon Godcheaux at defensive tackle.

57. Los Angeles Rams – MLB Logan Wilson (Wyoming)

Dante Fowler isn’t the only linebacker the Rams lost to a big contract elsewhere this off-season, with middle linebacker Cory Littleton signing with the Raiders. They badly need help at the middle linebacker spot in his absence, so this should be a priority position for them to address on day 2.

58. Minnesota Vikings – DE Curtis Weaver (Boise State)

The Vikings replaced Stefon Diggs and Xavier Rhodes in the first round, but still have other key departures to replace, including defensive end Everson Griffen. Griffen could still return, but he’s going into his age 33 season, so the Vikings need to think about the future at defensive end either way.

59. Seattle Seahawks – DT Jordan Elliott (Missouri)

The Seahawks re-signed Jarran Reed, but they lost Quinton Jefferson and Al Woods, leaving them thin at the defensive tackle position. Unless the Seahawks bizarrely take another linebacker, defensive tackle will likely be a position they focus on during the draft’s 2nd day.

60. Baltimore Ravens – G Matt Hennessy (Temple)

Losing right guard Marshal Yanda to retirement is a huge blow because he was still playing at a high level in 2019. Look for the Ravens to replace him early in the draft. 

61. Tennessee Titans – CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama)

The Titans haven’t totally closed the door on re-signing Logan Ryan, but he wants a significant contract and the Titans already have significant money committed to Malcolm Butler and will soon need to lock-up fellow starting cornerback Adoree Jackson long-term on a big contract. The Titans could take a cornerback on day 2 to give them a cheaper option and close the door on bringing back Ryan.

62. Green Bay Packers – TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame)

The Packers almost have to get Aaron Rodgers some help on day 2 right? It’s hard to imagine Rodgers is taking the news well that his long-term replacement has been drafted, but maybe the Packers can smooth things over by getting him some much needed pass catchers. Even if that’s not how they’re thinking about it, the Packers have pressing needs at wide receiver and tight end, so it would make sense either way.

63. Kansas City Chiefs – G John Simpson (Clemson)

The Chiefs need cornerback help, but if there isn’t a cornerback who fits the range, the Chiefs won’t force it in the 2nd round. Instead, they could address a need like the offensive line, where they have an open spot at left guard. Simpson could compete immediately with Andrew Wylie for the starting job.

64. Seattle Seahawks – OT Matt Peart (Connecticut)

The Seahawks added Brandon Shell in free agency, but he’s a borderline starting option and could be pushed by a rookie. They also need a long-term option at left tackle, where Duane Brown is going into his age 35 season.

65. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Malik Harrison (Ohio State)
66. Washington Redskins – TE Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri)
67. Detroit Lions – DT Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M)
68. New York Jets – OLB Bradlee Anae (Utah)
69. Carolina Panthers – OLB Akeem Davis-Gaither (Appalachian State)
70. Miami Dolphins – OT Lucas Niang (TCU)
71. New England Patriots – TE Adam Trautman (Dayton)
72. Arizona Cardinals – OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn)
73. Jacksonville Jaguars – DT Raekwon Davis (Alabama)
74. Cleveland Browns – WR Gabe Davis (Central Florida)
75. Indianapolis Colts – OLB Willie Gay (Mississippi State)
76. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Terrell Lewis (Alabama)
77. Denver Broncos – DE Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma)
78. Atlanta Falcons – RB Cam Akers (Florida State)
79. New York Jets – CB Darnay Holmes (UCLA)
80. Las Vegas Raiders – G Robert Hunt (Louisiana)
81. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma)
82. Dallas Cowboys – DE Jonathan Greenard (Florida)
83. Denver Broncos – WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado)
84. Los Angeles Rams – WR Lynn Bowden (Kentucky)
85. Detroit Lions – OT Ben Bartch (St. John’s MN)
86. Buffalo Bills – RB AJ Dillon (Boston College)
87. New England Patriots – S Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois)
88. New Orleans Saints – WR Bryan Edwards (South Carolina)
89. Minnesota Vikings – DT James Lynch (Baylor)
90. Houston Texans – OLB Darrell Taylor (Tennessee)
91. Las Vegas Raiders – OLB Jacob Phillips (LSU)
92. Baltimore Ravens – OLB Alton Robinson (Syracuse)
93. Tennessee Titans – OLB Khalid Kareem (Notre Dame)
94. Green Bay Packers – WR Devin Duvernay (Texas)
95. Denver Broncos – G Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin)
96. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Cameron Dantzler (Mississippi State)
97. Cleveland Browns – DT Jason Strowbridge (North Carolina)
98. New England Patriots – MLB Joe Bachie (Michigan State)
99. New York Giants – OLB Alex Highsmith (Charlotte)
100. New England Patriots – QB Jake Fromm (Georgia)
101. Seattle Seahawks – TE Harrison Bryant (Florida Atlantic)
102. Pittsburgh Steelers – RB Eno Benjamin (Arizona State)
103. Philadelphia Eagles – OLB Davion Taylor (Colorado)
104. Los Angeles Rams – RB Darrynton Evans (Appalachian State)
105. Minnesota Vikings – G Jonah Jackson (Ohio State)
106. Baltimore Ravens – RB Joshua Kelly (UCLA)

1. Cincinnati Bengals – QB Joe Burrow (LSU)

The Dolphins are reportedly making a “godfather” option to the Bengals to move up to #1. They have the draft capital over the next two years to make a very appealing offer (although they wouldn’t have had to do this if they had benched Ryan Fitzpatrick for the final two games of the season), but the Bengals seem pretty set on Burrow, who they have been talking to weekly over video for the past month. Either way Burrow would be the pick here, most likely to Cincinnati, but you never know.

2. Washington Redskins – DE Chase Young (Ohio State)

There may be some trade chatter here too, but ultimately the Redskins are expected to stay put and take Chase Young, the draft’s consensus top defensive player. It would likely take a similar “godfather” offer from a team for the Redskins to be willing to move down and give up the opportunity to draft Young.

3. Miami Dolphins (TRADE) – QB Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)

I’ve had the Lions trading down from this spot since my initial mock draft and it seems likely to happen. Teams will want to move up to this spot to secure their favorite of the remaining quarterbacks and the Lions will want to move down because they have a bunch of needs and can still get one of their target defensive players a few spots later. The Dolphins have always been the favorite to move up here, assuming they want to, over teams like the Chargers, Jaguars, and Raiders. 

Not only do they have the fewest spots to move up, but they also have more draft capital than any team in the league. They have a whopping 5 first round picks in the next two drafts and, with four second round picks as well, they might not have to give up a single one of those first rounders to get this deal done. Draft day reports suggest a trade is close for the Dolphins to move up to this spot, either with an ultimate goal of moving up all the way to 1 or to secure their 2nd ranked quarterback on their board at 3. There has been a lot of smoke tying the Dolphins to both Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, but I’m sticking with my original pick of Tua here.

4. Los Angeles Chargers (TRADE) – QB Justin Herbert (Oregon)

With Tua off the board, that could prompt one of the other teams looking at a quarterback to also move up in order to secure their quarterback. Like the Dolphins are favored to move up to 3, the Chargers should be favored to move up to 4. The Chargers don’t have as much draft capital as the Dolphins do, but with only two spots to move up, they should have enough to get this deal done. The Giants wouldn’t need a king’s ransom just to move down a couple spots and select a player they likely would have taken at 4. The Chargers like Tyrod Taylor as a short-term solution, but he’s going to be a free agent next off-season and a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract is the most valuable asset in football, so they won’t hesitate to move up to secure Herbert if they like him enough.

5. Detroit Lions (TRADE) – DT Derrick Brown (Auburn)

The Lions’ trade down works to perfection as they still have the same choices on defense as they would have had if they had stayed put at 3. I’ve gone back and forth between defensive tackle Derrick Brown and cornerback Jeff Okudah, who would both fill massive needs, with linebacker Isaiah Simmons also a possibility, but I’ve heard more tying Brown to the Lions in recent days than Okudah and this is a deeper cornerback class than defensive tackle class in the second round. With Damon Harrison, A’Shawn Robinson, and Mike Daniels all gone from last year’s team, the Lions badly need someone like Brown to go with free agent acquisition Danny Shelton and holdover Da’Shawn Hand.

6. New York Giants (TRADE) – OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia)

I’ve had the Giants taking a defensive player in the past, but there has been more buzz about an offensive tackle here lately. They need immediate help at right tackle and long-term help at left tackle, where Nate Solder is expensively paid and going into his age 32 season. They’ll likely have their pick of any of the top offensive tackles in this class and could start what some are predicting is going to be a run on tackles in the top-10. With the Chargers and Dolphins both taking quarterbacks, that run becomes less likely, but Thomas is still expected to hear his name called very early and he’d make sense at this spot for the Giants.

7. Carolina Panthers – OLB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson)

With Luke Kuechly’s sudden retirement, the Panthers have a big hole to fill at linebacker. Simmons is a similar player to Panthers linebacker Shaq Thompson, their other every down linebacker with Kuechly last year, which could make Simmons an odd fit on the Panthers, but I think the pairing could work. The Panthers would have as much speed and coverage ability at linebacker as any team in the league and could use one or the other as a safety or slot cornerback depending on the situation. Cornerback Jeff Okudah is also an option here, as the Panthers are in a good spot to sit back and pick between the defensive players who fall to them after the quarterbacks go high.

8. Atlanta Falcons (TRADE) – CB Jeff Okudah (Ohio State)

The Cardinals are also in a good spot to sit back and wait for a defensive player to fall to them, although not necessarily to take themselves. There is a lot of talk about the Falcons wanting to move up into the top-10 for a defensive player and the Cardinals, who lack a second round pick after trading it for DeAndre Hopkins, seem like an obvious trade partner. On the trade value chart, the Falcons giving up 16 and 47 to the Cardinals for 8 is about an even trade, so they won’t have to get terribly creative with this deal either. In the past I’ve had the Falcons moving up for Isaiah Simmons, but cornerback Jeff Okudah seems to be the target now if he slips out of the top-6.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars – CB CJ Henderson (Florida)

The Jaguars got leaped by the Falcons for this draft’s top cornerback Jeff Okudah, but Henderson is getting his own top-10 buzz of late, so they might be happy with either cornerback. With Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye both being traded, the Jaguars desperately need to reload at the cornerback position. Henderson could be their top cornerback even as a rookie. The Jaguars have another pick at 20, which they got for Ramsey, but they can’t afford to wait on a cornerback.

10. Cleveland Browns – OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa)

I’ve had this as a trade spot in past mocks, with teams looking to leap the Jets for a wide receiver and the Browns potentially feeling they can still get a good tackle later in the first. That could still happen, but it would require a team being so in love with one particular wide receiver that they can’t sit back and wait for a deep wide receiver class to come to them, which may not happen. If the Browns stay put, they’ll have their choice of the remaining tackle prospects, with Wirfs possibly moving into the #2 spot after a dominant combine. Wherever the Browns pick, I’d be shocked if they took anything other than a left tackle, with a glaring hole in their starting lineup at that position and up to 6-7 offensive tackles projected to go off the board in round 1. 

11. New York Jets – WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma)

The Jets signed Breshad Perriman to replace Robby Anderson in free agency, but the Jets also need to replace free agent Demaryius Thomas in three wide receiver sets. Perriman is also only signed to a one-year deal and isn’t the long-term #1 option the Jets need to give Sam Darnols. If no one moves up into the top-10 for a wide receiver, the Jets could easily be the first team to dip into the wide receiver pool and take one at 11 overall. It’s between CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy to be the top wide receiver off the board, but recent buzz has had Lamb higher.

12. Las Vegas Raiders – WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama)

The Jets take a wide receiver one pick earlier and now the Raiders follow suit by taking Jerry Jeudy. The Raiders added Antonio Brown for a reason last off-season and, while that didn’t work out, they definitely could have used his help opposite Tyrell Williams and still have a big need at that position after only taking a flier on Nelson Agholor in free agency this off-season. The Raiders found a steal with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow in the 5th round of the draft last year. Now they find an outside receiver.

13. Miami Dolphins (TRADE) – OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama)

The 49ers have a pair of first rounders after acquiring this pick from the Colts for DeForest Buckner, but they somehow don’t pick again until the 5th round, so they’ll almost definitely be looking to move down from one of their two first rounders in order to accumulate more picks. The Dolphins have already moved up to secure their quarterback, but they have so much draft capital that they can afford to move up again. They desperately need a left tackle to protect whoever their quarterback ends up being and it’s unlikely that one of the top-4 guys will still be there at 18. To make this move up, the Dolphins send the 49ers their 3rd and 4th round picks and the 49ers send back one of their three 5th rounders to the Dolphins.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OT Mekhi Becton (Louisville)

The Buccaneers landed Tom Brady and now will have to make sure they protect the soon-to-be 43-year-old. Right tackle is still a glaring hole with long-term veteran starter Demar Dotson still unsigned ahead of his age 35 season, so the Buccaneers may be planning on filling this hole early in the draft with one of the top tackle prospects.

15. Denver Broncos – WR Henry Ruggs (Alabama)

This draft class lacks a clear elite wide receiver prospect as it’s unlikely any wide receivers go before the 10th pick, but there could be as many as 7 wide receivers that go in the first round in total. The Broncos could easily be one of the teams that takes a wide receiver, as they don’t have much at the wide receiver position behind Courtland Sutton after trading away Emmanuel Sanders mid-season and not addressing this position in free agency.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE) – DE K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU)

The Cardinals got this pick in their trade down with the Falcons, but they’re not done making moves. They have a young franchise quarterback on a cheap rookie deal and, as we’ve seen teams in that situation do in the past, they could be very aggressive about maximizing their chances of winning while their quarterback is still cheap. They’ve already added DeAndre Hopkins via trade, but they still have a projected 80 million in cap space for 2021, and could add another veteran like disgruntled Jaguars franchise player Yannick Ngakoue.

The Jaguars are currently looking for a first round pick and more for Ngakoue, but no one has offered them even a first round pick, so they may have to get creative with trade proposals for a player who clearly wants out. In this scenario, Jacksonville wouldn’t get the 16th pick straight up from the Cardinals, but they’d get the second rounder that the Cardinals got from the Falcons (47th) and a swap of the 20th pick and the 16th pick. 

In this trade, Ngakoue would be valued as equivalent to the 33rd overall pick on the trade value chart, which might be the most the Jaguars could hope for, and the Jaguars would have the ability to move up and grab a replacement for Ngakoue in K’Lavon Chaisson, who likely wouldn’t have been available at 20 (the Cowboys at 17 are known to like him). The Jaguars have now added a top cornerback prospect, a top edge rusher prospect, and still have another 2 picks in the top-50, their own second rounder and the Falcons’ second rounder.

17. Dallas Cowboys – WR Justin Jefferson (LSU)

The Cowboys get jumped for the defensive end they likely would have taken, so they address another need. The Cowboys had one of the most explosive passing games in the league last season, but without Randall Cobb, who signed with the Texans in free agency, they lack a good 3rd receiving option. The Cowboys should look to add a 3rd receiver or a pass catching tight end early in the draft to fill that need and with the wide receiver class being deeper than the tight end class I suspect they’d go that route early. Taking Jefferson here also has the added benefit of keeping him away from the division rival Eagles, who are known to be high on him.

18. San Francisco 49ers (TRADE) – DT Javon Kinlaw (Mississippi)

The 49ers trade down with the Dolphins and are still able to address their biggest need with a player who would have been in consideration at 13, so their trade worked out well. With DeForest Bucker being sent to the Colts in order to get that 13th pick in the first place, the 49ers are very thin at defensive tackle, so they will be happy if they can get a blue chip defensive tackle prospect from that pick and replenish later picks at the same time.

19. Las Vegas Raiders – CB AJ Terrell (Clemson)

The Raiders have added some nice young pieces on defense in the past couple drafts, but need to keep building their defense, especially the back seven. The Raiders are very thin at cornerback, so a highly drafted rookie can start for them from week 1. Their first pick at 12 is probably too high for a cornerback unless Okudah or Henderson fall, but cornerback is a strong possibility at 19.

20. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE) – OT Josh Jones (Houston)

The Cardinals trade down twice and, through a couple trades, essentially get the franchise tagged Yannick Ngakoue for doing so. Ngakoue won’t be cheap to keep long-term, but the Cardinals have an inexpensive franchise quarterback and the financial flexibility long-term to make an aggressive move like that to try to make a big leap as a team in Kyler Murray’s second season in the league. In addition to the cost of Ngakoue’s contract, the Cardinals miss out on one of the top-4 tackle prospects in this draft, but there’s enough depth at the position for the Cardinals to still find a needed upgrade at right tackle later in the first round.

21. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Denzel Mims (Baylor)

Wide receiver was a major problem for the Eagles in 2019. They should get more from 2019 2nd round pick JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson should hopefully be healthier next season, but they still need to address this position through the draft. Jeffery and Jackson are both injury prone and will be in their 30s next year with big salaries, so their days with the team may be numbered and they need insurance for them in the short-term.

22. Minnesota Vikings – DE Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State)

The Vikings got this pick from the Bills for Stefon Diggs. It’s a trade that makes sense for both sides. The Bills are in win now mode and need a legitimate #1 receiver like Diggs, while the Vikings are tight on cap space and are a run heavy team that doesn’t need to commit significant money to their quarterback and top-2 wide receivers. The move leaves the Vikings thin at wide receiver, but this is a deep wide receiver class and the Vikings have three picks in the first 2 rounds, so they don’t need to find a replacement for Diggs right away. Instead, they use this pick to replace Everson Griffen and fill a big need at defensive end.

23. New England Patriots – MLB Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma)

This could be a spot for a quarterback, but the Patriots seem to at least somewhat like Jarrett Stidham as a developmental prospect, so it makes more sense that the Patriots would add a veteran stopgap in free agency rather than using a high draft pick on a quarterback. Lost in the story of Brady’s departure from New England is the story of all of the Patriots losses at linebacker, with Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy, and Elandon Roberts signing elsewhere this off-season. The linebacker position should be a priority on draft day.

24. New Orleans Saints – QB Jordan Love (Utah State)

The Saints clearly value Taysom Hill, giving him a first round tender this off-season, but even the first round tender is only worth 4.641 million, so that’s not necessarily a sign that they view him as a quarterback of the future. His salary is more than justifiable by his role as a “gadget” player and special teamer and it’s telling that when Drew Brees was hurt last year the Saints turned to a traditional quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and actually scaled Hill’s usage down significantly. If they don’t view Hill, who is already going into his age 30 season, as a long-term quarterback option, they may add one through the draft this year. We know the Saints were interested in taking Patrick Mahomes a few years ago before the Chiefs moved up ahead of them and took him. Jordan Love has drawn some comparisons to Mahomes as a prospect. He enters the league very raw, but would benefit from sitting a year or two on the bench behind Brees.

25. Minnesota Vikings – CB Jeff Gladney (TCU)

The Vikings have had a history of taking defensive backs early, even when they don’t need to, taking Xavier Rhodes in the first round in 2013, Trae Waynes in the first round in 2015, Mackenzie Alexander in the second round in 2016, and Mike Hughes in the first round in 2018. This off-season, they need to, so it would make sense that the Vikings would take another cornerback early. Waynes and Alexander both left as free agents this off-season, while Rhodes was a cap casualty after two down seasons. Hughes is still on his rookie deal, but has had an injury plagued two years in the league thus far. Even if he pans out, they still need a long-term starter opposite him.

26. Miami Dolphins – S Xavier McKinney (Alabama)

The Dolphins got this pick from the Texans for Laremy Tunsil, but one of their extra first round picks comes from their trade of Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers, a trade the Dolphins never really wanted to have to make, and a trade the Dolphins seemed to regret after Fitzpatrick broke out with the Steelers. Without Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins lack an impact making safety, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they used one of their later two first round picks on the position.

27. Green Bay Packers (TRADE) – MLB Patrick Queen (LSU)

It wouldn’t be a trades mock draft if I didn’t include the Seahawks moving down. Somehow, the Seahawks have not drafted at their original pick in the first round since 2012 and over that stretch have selected just three times total in the first round, with one of those first rounders coming from the Chiefs in the Frank Clark trade. Expect them to trade down and accumulate more picks, possibly trading down more than once as they’ve done several times in recent years. The Packers moving up here to leap the Ravens for Patrick Queen makes sense. Both the Packers and Ravens desperately need middle linebacker help and the middle linebacker class drops off significantly after Murray and Queen.

28. Baltimore Ravens – G Cesar Ruiz (Michigan)

The Ravens miss out on the middle linebacker they likely would have been targeting here, so they address another need instead. Losing right guard Marshal Yanda to retirement is a huge blow because he was still playing at a high level in 2019. Look for them to replace him early in the draft. Ruiz is the consensus top interior offensive lineman in this draft and is on the 1st/2nd round border, possibly being pushed up into the first out of positional need in a thin guard class.

29. Tennessee Titans – OLB Zack Baun (Wisconsin)

The Titans need to improve their pass rush, with only one player on the roster having more than 5 sacks last season. Harold Landry, their 2018 2nd round pick, led the way with 9, but they need a long-term option opposite him. They signed Vic Beasley in free agency, but only on a one-year deal and he’s been highly inconsistent in the past. Even if he has a strong season in 2020, the Titans will likely still need a long-term option because Beasley could price himself out of the Titans’ range with a bounce back 2020 campaign.

30. Seattle Seahawks (TRADE) – DT Ross Blacklock (TCU)

The Seahawks re-signed Jarran Reed, but they lost Quinton Jefferson and Al Woods, leaving them thin at the defensive tackle position. The Seahawks could target that position after trading down. Blacklock would also make sense as their pick at 27 if they have to stay put.

31. San Francisco 49ers – OT Austin Jackson (USC)

The 49ers need a long-term replacement for Joe Staley, who is going into his age 36 season. Jackson can start his career at right guard, where he could be an immediate starter, and would be a long-term bookend for Mike McGlinchey whenever Staley is no longer around.

32. Kansas City Chiefs – RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

Damien Williams scores a lot of touchdowns in the playoffs, but he mostly just picks up what’s blocked on probably the easiest offense in the league to run on, given how much defenses have to respect the pass. The Chiefs have lacked an explosive back since getting rid of Kareem Hunt and could target one of the top backs in this draft class at the end of the first round. Jonathan Taylor could add another dimension to an already deadly offense.

The franchise/transition tag period for the 2020 off-season starts this Thursday February 27th and goes through March 12th. After the 12th, all non-tagged players with expiring contracts will hit the open market. Those dates were both moved forward by two days with the NFL and NFLPA still trying to negotiate a new CBA ahead of the new league year. Those negotiations complicate this situation in a couple ways. On one hand, if a new CBA is agreed to, the franchise tag and transition tag values could be drastically changed from their current projections. On the other hand, without a new deal, teams will have access to both the franchise tag and the transition tag this off-season, making life much easier for teams with multiple top free agents. There’s a much larger pool than usual of top free agents who could be tagged this off-season, even with top free agents Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Jadeveon Clowney all ineligible for the tag for different reasons. Below is a list in order of descending likelihood of candidates to be tagged without a long-term deal. 

QB Dak Prescott (Dallas)

This seems like the most no brainer franchise tag candidate, assuming a long-term deal isn’t worked out beforehand. The Cowboys might not be quite willing to meet Prescott’s 40 million dollar annual salary ask, but they’re unlikely to let him hit the open market without any compensation and the projected 26.895 million dollar franchise tag is a much easier number for the Cowboys to keep him at. Prescott is also unlikely to sign the tag right away, meaning the Cowboys could still pursue other quarterback options like Tom Brady this off-season and eventually trade Prescott at some point. 

DE Yannick Ngakoue (Jacksonville)

Not much remains of the dominant defense the Jaguars had in 2017 that carried them to the AFC Championship game, but Ngakoue was still a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season for the Jaguars in 2019. He had 8 sacks and another 10 hits on the quarterback, giving him 37.5 sacks and 55 hits in 63 games for his career, along with a 12.0% pressure rate. His play against the run leaves something to be desired, but guys who can get to the quarterback as consistently as he does are guys you can build your defense around and those guys get paid on the open market. 

The Jaguars’ cap is clogged with big contracts, but they can move on from underperforming veterans to clear space for Ngakoue, who was severely underpaid in the final year of his rookie deal in 2019, making 2.025 million. The 2016 3rd round pick is only going into his age 25 season and is someone the Jaguars should want around for a long time. If he does end up leaving the Jaguars, I imagine it would only be in a tag and trade situation, as the Jaguars are unlikely to let him walk for nothing.

The only complication here is that while the defensive end franchise tag is worth 19.316 million, Ngakoue would likely get upwards of 20+ million annually with 50+ million guaranteed on the open market and may not be happy about being tagged. The Jaguars could have to agree to a long-term deal with him or work out a trade quickly to prevent it from becoming a problem, but that certainly beats the alternative of losing him outright.

DE Shaq Barrett (Tampa Bay)

Shaq Barrett is a player who the franchise tag seems tailor made for. After just 14 sacks in 4 seasons with the Broncos, Barrett led the NFL with 19.5 sacks this season after signing a one-year deal with the Buccaneers last off-season. Barrett played better than his sack total suggested in Denver, as he was a strong run defender who always flashed in limited pass rush opportunities behind the likes of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and Bradley Chubb, with a 12.1% pressure rate in the first 4 seasons of his career, but the Buccaneers only signed him for 4 million last off-season and might not want to commit to him on a big money deal long-term just yet. Likewise, Barrett might not mind the one-year, 16.266 million dollar payday with an opportunity to break the bank next off-season with another strong season in Todd Bowles’ system. For that reason, the franchise tag makes a lot more sense than the transition tag for both sides.

DT Chris Jones (Kansas City)

Pat Mahomes was obviously going to win Super Bowl MVP for his efforts in leading the team back, but he was also pretty underwhelming for the first three quarters of the game and threw a pair of interceptions, so some felt that Chris Jones should be MVP instead for his 4th quarter disruptions of Jimmy Garoppolo. Jones didn’t just have a strong Super Bowl either, as the 2016 2nd round pick has finished in the top-8 among interior defenders on PFF in each of the past 3 seasons, while totalling 31 sacks, 33 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate over that time. His play against the run leaves something to be desired, but as a pass rusher he’s been more productive than any interior player other than Aaron Donald and more productive than most edge players for that matter. Those guys usually get paid and the Chiefs are unlikely to let him hit the open market.

Whether or not Jones ultimately gets paid by the Chiefs is the question though. The Chiefs already have 12 million or more annually committed to 5 players on their roster and 8 million or more annually committed to 9 players on their roster. Those 9 players currently occupy about 61% of their cap space and that’s before the inevitable Pat Mahomes megadeal. The Chiefs might not be able to afford the 9 figure deal Jones would likely command on the open market. They could franchise tag him and bring him back on a one-year deal, but this could also be a tag and trade situation like the Chiefs did with Dee Ford last off-season. The tag and trade scenario would not work as well with the transition tag, so I wouldn’t expect the Chiefs to go with the cheaper option.

S Justin Simmons (Denver)

Simmons seems like a likely franchise tag candidate. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Simmons was a solid starter prior to 2019 (32 starts in his first 3 seasons in the league), but broke out in a big way in the final year of his rookie deal last season, finishing 1st among safeties on PFF. The Broncos might not want to commit to a top of market deal based off of one dominant season, but he’s more than earned the 12.735 million dollar franchise tag and is not someone the Broncos would want to lose. The transition tag, which could force the Broncos to make a long-term commitment this off-season, probably isn’t an option.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee)

At first glance, Tannehill might seem like an obvious franchise tag candidate. He took over a 2-4 team last season and led them to 7 wins in their final 10 games to qualify for the post-season, where they won a pair of games on the road in big upsets and advanced to the AFC Championship game. In the process, he led the NFL with a 117.5 QB rating. He had a good situation around him with a strong running game and offensive line and a capable receiving corps, but he’s still not the kind of player the Titans would want to lose. However, his performance in 88 starts with the Dolphins in his first 7 seasons of his career (87.0 QB rating) suggest he’s unlikely to have suddenly become an elite quarterback, so committing to him on a big money, long-term deal is risky. 

The 26.895 million dollar franchise tag seems like a great middle ground option, but there are some complicating factors. For one, the Titans are rumored to be interested in trying to sign Tom Brady this off-season, but won’t be able to talk to him until they’ve made a decision on tagging Tannehill or not. The Titans could tag him and try to negotiate with Brady anyway, but Tannehill could end up opting to sign the tender to keep his job on a contending team. The 26.895 million dollar franchise tag is a steep increase for a quarterback who took home just 10.425 million last season. 

On top of that, the Titans also want to keep running back Derrick Henry off the open market and if a new CBA is ratified soon, the Titans wouldn’t have the option of both the franchise tag and the transition tag and would have to make a decision between Tannehill and Henry. I’d still expect Tannehill to be tagged as, even though this could be a big off-season for quarterback movement, the Titans still don’t want to be left without a chair at the end of it, but it’s not a given, especially if a new CBA is agreed to and/or the Titans get a sense they might get Brady.

OLB Matthew Judon (Baltimore)

Judon has never had a double digit sack season in his career, but he was still a dominant pass rusher in 2019, with 9.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate. He has his struggles against the run and his 38th ranked finish overall among edge defenders on PFF in 2019 was his career best, so he’s not an elite overall player, but he’s also not the kind of player the Ravens want to lose because of his pass rush productivity (12.2% pressure rate in his career). Working in the Ravens’ favor is the fact that Judon would be tagged as a linebacker (16.266 million) rather than a defensive end (19.316 million) because the Ravens run a 3-4 and the NFL uses archaic position titles for the franchise tag. 

WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

It’s clear that AJ Green would prefer not to be franchise tagged, but he wouldn’t have much of a say in the matter. His only option would be to hold out the season and try to force a trade by doing so, but I don’t think Green would risk missing the season now at age 32 after missing all of last season with injury. The Bengals have never committed to top market long-term deals with players at any position and Green, despite being arguably their best player in the past decade, is unlikely to be an exception given his age and injury history. 

The Bengals likely view Tyler Boyd, who they extended on a 4-year, 43 million dollar deal, as their long-term #1, but Green can still be a difference maker when he’s on the field, and the Bengals may want to bring him back to help with likely #1 pick Joe Burrow’s development. They may view the franchise tag as a bridge to a short-term team friendly deal as the best way to proceed with Green this off-season even if that doesn’t seem to be what Green himself wants, as he’d like to try to sign a guaranteed long-term deal with a legitimate contender this off-season. The transition tag, which would force the Bengals to match a long-term deal or lose Green for no compensation, is unlikely to be an option.

OT Anthony Castonzo (Indianapolis)

There are rumors Castonzo is considering retiring ahead of what would be his age 32 season, so this is obviously assuming he wants to continue playing. If he does, the Colts will likely want to retain a left tackle who has been rock solid for them since being drafted in the first round in 2011 and still played at a high level in 2019, even being on the older side. He’s started 132 games in 9 seasons in the league, finishing in the top-23 among offensive tackles in all but his rookie season, including 3 seasons in the top-8 and a 7th ranked finish in 2019. Castonzo likely wouldn’t command a 4+ year deal in free agency, so the Colts could use either tag on him and work on a short-term extension that pays him near the top of the left tackle market for another couple seasons. They have plenty of cap space and wouldn’t want to break up a strong offensive line.

DE Arik Armstead (San Francisco)

Armstead is a good fit for the franchise tag. A first round pick in 2015, Armstead was a good run stopping defensive end with solid peripheral pass rush stats through his first 4 seasons in the league (12.3% pressure rate), but missed 18 games with injury, averaged just 406 snaps per season, and totalled a combined 9 sacks. That all changed in the final year of his rookie deal, when he broke out with 10 sacks, while adding 9 hits, and a pressure rate of 12.5%, while continuing to play the run well and playing 776 snaps overall. Overall, he finished as PFF’s 4th ranked edge defender on the season. 

The 49ers don’t want to lose someone like that with their Super Bowl window still wide open, but it would be risky to give him a big long-term deal with a lot of guaranteed money because he’s only put it all together once. Armstead also hasn’t objected to questions about the franchise tag, likely understanding that the 19.316 million it would pay him next season is still a significant sum for one year for a player who had 9 career sacks a season ago and understanding that if he has another strong year he’d likely break the bank in free agency next off-season. The transition tag is less likely because he’d probably get an offer, forcing the 49ers to decide whether or not to commit to a long-term deal with him.

DE Leonard Williams (NY Giants)

Williams was the 6th overall pick by the Jets in 2015 and overall lived up to expectations. He never posted huge sack numbers, but he was consistently a strong run stuffer and had good peripheral pass rush stats as well, adding 70 hits and a 9.7% pressure rate to his 17 sacks in 71 games with the Jets. He maxed out as PFF’s 10th ranked interior defender in 2016 and has finished in the top-28 three times. Williams made it no secret about the kind of long-term deal he’s looking for this off-season though and, as a result, the Jets traded Williams in the middle of what was an overall down year for him to the Giants for a 3rd and 5th round draft pick to recoup something for a player they weren’t expecting to bring back. 

Even after he finished last season 42nd among interior defenders on PFF, the Giants still seem to value him highly and likely didn’t trade significant draft picks for him to see him walk in free agency. Still only going into his age 26 season, Williams has obvious bounce back potential for 2020 and beyond and is likely to be tagged by the Giants with the idea of working out a long-term agreement with him. They view him as a long-term building block. 

WR Amari Cooper (Dallas)

Cooper’s situation is complicated by Dak Prescott also being a pending free agent, but the Cowboys are unlikely to let Cooper walk for nothing, after using a first round pick to acquire him just a season and a half ago. Assuming the Cowboys get use of both tags, Cooper would be an obvious candidate for the transition tag, as the Cowboys would likely match any deal he’d get on the open market. He’s averaged a 84/1225/9 slash line per 16 games in 25 games with the team and could be looking at 18-20 million annually on a long-term deal, still only going into his age 26 season.

RB Derrick Henry (Tennessee)

Henry would be a no-brainer franchise tag candidate if Tannehill wasn’t also a pending free agency. Instead, the Titans will have to hope there isn’t a new CBA and that they’ll have use of both their franchise tag and transition tag. With Tannehill likely to be franchised, Henry would be an obvious candidate for the transition tag. The 10.189 million dollar transition tag is still a steep sum for a running back, but Henry is incredibly important to the Titans’ offense and it’s likely they value him higher than any other team would and, as a result, would match any long-term deal he gets on the open market. Even after his rushing title and dominant post-season performance last season, Henry still might not reach the Todd Gurley/Ezekiel Elliott tier of running back contracts because of his limitations on passing downs. 

G Brandon Scherff (Washington)

Not much has gone right for the Redskins over the past few seasons, but the selection of Brandon Scherff 5th overall in 2015 has been one of the bright spots and, as such, the Redskins are unlikely to let one of their few true building blocks leave this off-season. Injuries are a minor concern as he’s missed 15 games in the past 3 seasons, but he’s also finished in the top-27 among guards on PFF in all 5 seasons in the league, including top-7 finishes in 2017 and 2019. Expect the Redskins to give him one of the two tags with the idea of buying them more time to sign him to a long-term deal. 

CB James Bradberry (Carolina)

The Panthers’ top cornerback, Bradberry is rumored to be looking for offers of about 14-15 million annually in free agency this off-season. The Panthers have plenty of cap space and could keep him with the 16.471 million dollar franchise tag or the 14.57 million dollar transition tag. Bradberry regularly matches up with top wide receivers, but he has had trouble holding his own, finishing in the top-15 among cornerbacks in yards allowed in each of the past 3 seasons, including 2 seasons in the top-7. Still, he’s only going into his age 26 season and the Panthers may project him as a better player going forward than he’s been in the past.

S Anthony Harris (Minnesota)

Harris wasn’t even drafted back in 2015, but the former special teamer has been a revelation as a starter for the Vikings at safety over the past season and a half. After playing 621 career defensive snaps through week 7 of his 4th season in the league in 2018, Harris took over as the starter in week 8 and has been one of the best safeties in the league since, finishing 5th among safeties on PFF in 9 starts in 2018 and then 2nd as a 15-game starter in 2019. 

Harris has been a late bloomer, but he’s only going into his age 29 season and should command a top of the market deal in free agency. The Vikings don’t want to lose him, but will need to let other players go and get creative with the cap to tag him. With so much long-term money tied up in other places and another top level safety on the team in Harrison Smith, this could ultimately be a tag and trade scenario.

TE Hunter Henry (LA Chargers)

Henry has missed 23 games in 4 seasons in the league since the Chargers took him in the 2nd round in 2016, but he’s averaged a 53/667/7 slash line per 16 games, despite spending his first two seasons as a part-time player behind Antonio Gates on the depth chart. Last season was his first full season as a starter and, though he missed 4 games with injury, he ranked 9th in the NFL in receiving yards by a tight end and was on a 869-yard pace per 16 games. Throughout his career, he’s averaged an impressive 8.85 yards per target in his career and he is also an above average blocker to boot. 

Signing Henry to a big long-term deal may be a risk, but he doesn’t turn 26 until December and there is plenty of evidence that Henry could have a monster season if he can ever put it all together for a 16-game stretch and that’s probably not the kind of player the Chargers want to lose, especially with franchise star Philip Rivers likely on his way out this off-season. I’d say there’s a better chance than not that the Chargers tag him, with the franchise tag making more sense than the transition tag because the Chargers wouldn’t have to worry about making a decision on whether or not to match.

OLB Dante Fowler (LA Rams)

Fowler has had an interesting career. Drafted 3rd overall in 2015 by the Jaguars, Fowler tore his ACL at his first practice as a professional, missed his whole rookie season, and had lost his starting job by his return, playing just 30.7 snaps per game in 39 games for the Jaguars before they traded him to the Rams for a 3rd and 5th round pick in the middle of the 2018 season. Fowler had shown promise as a pass rusher in limited action with the Jaguars, with a 10.6% pressure rate, but was underwhelming in his half season with the Rams, with 2 sacks, 5 hits, and 16 hurries on 256 pass rush snaps. Fowler hit free agency last off-season because the Jaguars had declined his 5th year option, but the Rams were willing to bring him back on a one-year, 12 million dollar deal and were rewarded with Fowler breaking out with a 11.5-sack season. 

With Fowler still only going into his age 26 season, he figures to secure a big deal in free agency this off-season. Fowler’s peripheral pass rush stats, 6 hits and a 13.2% pressure rate, weren’t as good as his sack total and he finished just 35th overall among edge defenders on PFF, so the cap strapped Rams might not see bringing him back as a necessity, but they could still tag him to keep him off the open market because the 16.266 million dollar franchise tag and the 14.08 million dollar transition tag are likely both less than he’d get annually in free agency.

DT DJ Reader (Houston)

The 6-3 346 pound Reader isn’t just a big run stuffer, although he is one of the better run stuffing base package nose tackles in the league. What could make him worth the 12.321 million dollar transition tag or even the 15.5 million dollar franchise tag is his ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs, playing 60.6% of the snaps over the past 2 seasons. He had just 2.5 sacks last season, but added 11 hits and a 9.9% pressure rate and he has a 8.4% pressure rate for his career. The 2016 5th round pick has gotten better every season in the league and finished last year as PFF’s 5th ranked interior defender overall. Big run stuffers like him that also contribute on passing downs are rare.

OLB Bud Dupree (Pittsburgh)

Dupree’s 11.5 sacks in 2019 suggest he’s someone the Steelers wouldn’t want to lose, but they are tight on cap space and Dupree has some obvious downsides. The former first round pick never topped 6 sacks in a season before his contract year in 2019 and even in 2019 he had just a 9.5% pressure rate and several of his sacks were the result of playing on an overall strong defense with a dominant edge rusher in TJ Watt on the opposite side. He was just PFF’s 25th ranked edge defender, still a career best, and has just a 9.3% pressure rate for his career, so he could be an overpay on a big long-term deal.

Tagging Dupree and making him repeat his big sack total to get a long-term deal would make a lot more sense than committing to him long-term this off-season, but the 16.266 million dollar linebacker tag could be too big of a cap hold for a #2 edge defender for a Steelers team that is short on cap space already and needs to figure out a long-term deal for TJ Watt sometime soon. The most likely scenario in which he returns to the Steelers in 2020 may be one where he returns on a team friendly deal long-term deal after not finding the market he expects in free agency. On a long-term deal, the Steelers could lower his cap hit for 2020 and keep kicking the can on their cap problems. For that reason, the transition tag might make the most sense of all. 

OT Jack Conklin (Tennessee)

Conklin’s situation is complicated by the Titans also having Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, as well as to a lesser extent cornerback Logan Ryan, set to hit the open market without a tag. The Titans can use both tags if a new CBA isn’t agreed to before free agency, but the Titans wouldn’t be able to keep all of their top free agents off the open market without signing some long-term deals. Unless Tannehill or Henry sign a long-term deal before free agency, they’re likely to take precedence over Conklin for the tags.

That being said, if either of those two players does re-sign long-term before free agency and the Titans have the transition tag available, Conklin would become an obvious choice, even above the 29-year old Ryan. The 26-year old Conklin is very much in the prime of his career and is only hitting free agency because the Titans Jon Robinson led front office made a rare mistake last off-season in declining Conklin’s 5th year option over concerns about the health of his knee. 

That 5th year option would have had Conklin under contract for 12.86 million in 2020. The transition tag instead would cost the Titans 14.666 million. After Conklin finished last season as PFF’s 12th ranked offensive tackle, the long-term deal the Titans are likely to have to match will probably exceed both of those totals annually with significant upfront guarantees. Injury concerns appear to be a non-factor with Conklin having never missed a game aside from the 7 he missed in 2018 while recovering from his January 2018 torn ACL. 

CB Byron Jones (Dallas)

Jones is a distant 3rd on the Cowboys’ free agent priority list behind Prescott and Cooper, but if one of those two gets signed long-term and both the franchise tag and transition tag are available to the Cowboys this off-season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Jones get the transition tag. Even then, the Cowboys might not match a long-term deal he gets elsewhere as he’s likely to get paid at the top of the cornerback market and the Cowboys have other financial obligations and promising young cornerbacks behind Jones on the depth chart, but the Cowboys will likely at least try to keep a cornerback who has finished 7th and 15th among cornerbacks on PFF in the past 2 seasons respectively.

S Devin McCourty (New England)

I don’t know if McCourty would get the 12.735 million dollar franchise tag for his age 33 season in 2020, but the 10.801 million dollar transition tag could be an option. McCourty was still PFF’s 11th ranked safety last season for one of the best defenses in the league, so that wouldn’t be an unreasonable amount for him to get on a one-year deal and it would give the Patriots the right to match if McCourty were to try to sign elsewhere. McCourty probably would prefer to stay in New England, so he may give the Patriots the right to match regardless, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Patriots keep such an important player off the open market entirely.

CB Chris Harris (Denver)

Harris is a veteran who is likely to want to test the open market over being tagged, given that he’s running out of chances to sign big money deals with legitimate contenders, now going into his age 31 off-season. Harris definitely took a step back last season, finishing 35th among cornerbacks on PFF, after finishing in the top-18 in 8 straight seasons prior to last season, but there’s still an argument to be made for bringing Harris back on the 14.57 million dollar transition tag and seeing what his market is. Harris is still the Broncos’ best cornerback and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bounce back in 2020. A long-term deal with significant guarantees might not be the best idea, but he could easily have another couple strong seasons left in the tank. As of right now, it looks like the Broncos are willing to let Harris test the market without a tag, but that could change.

TE Austin Hooper (Atlanta)

Hooper is much less likely to be tagged than fellow top free agent tight end Hunter Henry, but that’s primarily because the Falcons don’t have much cap flexibility and already have made significant investments on offense. Still, Hooper is the safer choice between the two tight ends, as his receiving totals in the past 2 seasons have both topped Henry’s career best mark and he’s also only missed 5 games in 4 seasons in the league, while Henry has missed 23, though Henry is the better blocker and more efficient pass catcher on a per target basis. Hooper is still a solid blocker though, making him one of the few tight ends in the league who can be mismatches in the passing game and hold their own in the run game. He’ll get paid by someone this off-season and the Falcons attempting a tag and trade wouldn’t be a shock.

S Jimmie Ward (San Francisco)

Much like fellow former 49ers first round pick Arik Armstead, Ward has had injury issues throughout much of his career and finally put it all together in 2019. A first round pick in 2014, Ward missed 29 games in the first 5 seasons of his career and had to settle for a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal to return to the 49ers last off-season. That contract started out with more of the same, with Ward missing the first 3 games of the season, but he returned to play the rest of the way and finished 8th among safeties on PFF. His previous best finish was 28th, so he’s the definition of a one-year wonder and his injury history is obviously concerning, but I would expect the 49ers to at least consider tagging him, even though it’s likely unrealistic given their cap situation to keep both Armstead and Ward on big contracts long-term.

MLB Cory Littleton (LA Rams)

Originally undrafted in 2016, Littleton has worked his way up from a special teamer in his first two seasons to a starter in 2018 and, after a solid first season as a starter, Littleton took his game to another level in 2019, finishing 6th among off ball linebackers on PFF. He has a few things working against his chances of getting tagged though. For one, the Rams are tight on cap space. Two, the linebacker tag value is inflated because of 3-4 edge rushing linebackers, so Littleton would cost 16.266 million on the franchise tag and 14.08 million on the transition tag, which would rank 3rd and 5th annually among non-rush linebackers. Three, the Rams also have rush linebacker Dante Fowler set to hit free agency and may prefer to tag him instead, if they end up keeping either one.

RB Kenyan Drake (Arizona)

The idea of Drake being tagged would have seemed ridiculous a few months ago when the Cardinals acquired him from the Dolphins at the trade deadline for just a 6th round pick, but Drake turned what was supposed to be a temporary stint as the starter with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds hurt into a full-time gig, rushing for 643 yards and 8 touchdowns on 123 carries (5.23 YPC) in 8 games, while adding 28 catches for 171 yards through the air. 

Johnson still has 5.1 million guaranteed on his contract for 2020 and the Cardinals would lose cap space if they cut him, but they could trade him, though they’d likely have to get creative with the deal structure and eat salary in that scenario. Reportedly, they’d be doing that with the idea of tagging Drake and keeping him long-term. It might not be likely, but Drake is a perfect fit for the Cardinals’ wide open offense with his ability to make plays in space and run over defenses that are lined up to defend the pass. 

Drake never posted big numbers in Miami, but he averaged 4.60 yards per carry on 333 carries running behind an awful offensive line, while breaking 67 tackles and averaging 3.29 yards per carry after contact. The one downside is he’s never had more than 170 carries in a season even dating back to high school, so he hasn’t proven he can hold up as a feature back for a full season yet, but he also has fresh legs going into his age 26 season with 456 career carries. Drake could be a candidate for the transition tag as well as the Cardinals likely value him more than any other team would and would match any long-term deal he signs. Johnson’s presence on a big salary obviously complicates things though.

Pick of the Week

DET +7 vs. KC

High Confidence Picks

CLE +7 @ BAL

OAK +7 @ IND

Medium Confidence Picks

ARZ +5.5 vs. SEA

DAL -2.5 @ NO

Low Confidence Picks

TB +9 @ LAR

NE -7 @ BUF

CIN +3.5 @ PIT

DEN -3 vs. JAX

GB -5 vs. PHI

No Confidence Picks

LAC -14.5 @ MIA

HOU -4 vs. CAR

ATL -3.5 vs. TEN

MIN +1 @ CHI

NYG -3 vs. WAS

Upset Picks

DET +255 vs. KC

Every year young players breakout and make the Pro-Bowl and even the All-Pro team for the first time. This list is the most likely player by position to do so in 2019. All players on this team are in their third year in the league or less and have never made a Pro-Bowl or All-Pro team.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield (Cleveland)

Drafted first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by a previously winless Browns team, Baker Mayfield’s career got off to an underwhelming start. He led a week 3 comeback in relief of an injured Tyrod Taylor to give the Browns their first victory in almost two years, but then went 1-4 in his next 5 starts. Through week 8 he had completed just 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. 

That changed when head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley were fired before week 9. Mayfield flourished in new play caller Freddie Kitchens’ offense. He completed 68.4% of his passes for an average of 8.57 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions and led the Browns to a 5-3 finish in 8 games without Jackson and Haley. Now with new #1 wide receiver Odell Beckham in the mix, Mayfield has sky high expectations for his second season in the league. He’s still inexperienced and a sophomore slump is still a possibility, but Mayfield is clearly a potential Pro-Bowler in 2019. 

Running Back Christian McCaffrey (Carolina)

It might seem strange to have Christian McCaffrey on a breakout players list, but he technically meets the requirements after getting snubbed for the Pro-Bowl in 2018, which knocks a very deserving Nick Chubb from this list. The 2017 8th overall pick, McCaffrey had a 219/1098/7 slash line as a runner and a 107/867/6 slash line as a receiver last season. His 5.01 YPC average was highest among running backs with at least 200 carries and he caught 86.3% of targets thrown his way without a single drop. Perhaps most impressively, McCaffrey played every single snap in 8 games and played 96.9% of the snaps through week 16, before resting in a meaningless week 17 game. If he has a similar season in 2019, hopefully he won’t be snubbed again. 

Wide receiver Cooper Kupp (LA Rams)

A third round pick in 2017, Kupp looked on his way to making his first Pro-Bowl last season, with 30 catches for 438 yards and 5 touchdowns through 5 games (96/1402/16 extrapolated over 16 games), but he suffered a knee injury week 6 and then ended up tearing his ACL a few weeks later, ending his season. The injury complicates things, but if he can return close to full strength, Kupp could easily have Pro-Bowl level production. 

One thing that may prevent him from that could be his own teammates, as Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks both topped 1000 yards in 2018. Kupp has been quarterback Jared Goff’s most reliable receiver over the past 2 seasons though, completing 68.0% of his 150 targets to Kupp for 1,435 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions, a 117.5 QB rating. The Rams run three wide receiver sets so frequently that slot receiver is an every down position in this offense, so Kupp should get plenty of targets if he’s close to his old self.

Wide receiver Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay)

The second of three wide receivers selected in the third round in 2017 to make this team, Chris Godwin hasn’t had the opportunity yet to be an every down player in a deep receiving corps, but he’s still totalled 93 catches for 1,367 yards and 8 touchdowns in 32 career games, while averaging 1.91 yards per route run. Now with DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries both gone, Godwin will have the opportunity to be an every down player, and will line up both outside and on the slot. He could easily top 1000+ yards receiving and make his first Pro-Bowl. 

Wide receiver Kenny Golladay (Detroit)

Also a 3rd round pick in 2017, Golladay was only a part-time player as a rookie, but still managed a 28/477/3 slash line, while averaging 1.66 yards per route run and 9.94 yards per target. In his second season in the league in 2018, Golladay took on a larger role and took a step forward, putting up a 70/1063/5 slash line, while averaging 1.87 yards per route run and 8.93 yards per target. Golladay is the Lions’ #1 wide receiver with Golden Tate gone and he could easily take another step forward in his third season in the league.

Tight end OJ Howard (Tampa Bay)

OJ Howard easily could have made the Pro-Bowl last season if he hadn’t gotten hurt, as his 34/565/5 slash line in 10 games extrapolates to a 54/904/8 slash line across a full 16 game season. Also a strong run blocker, Howard was PFF’s 3rd ranked tight end when he went down for the season with an ankle injury week 11 and his 2.26 yards per route run average also ranked 3rd in the NFL among tight ends. Assuming he stays healthy, the 2017 19th overall pick could easily have a Pro-Bowl caliber season in 2019. Like his teammate Chris Godwin, Howard will benefit from the Buccaneers losing DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries this off-season. 

Left tackle Dion Dawkins (Buffalo)

Dion Dawkins looked like a future Pro-Bowler as a rookie in 2017, as the second round pick was forced into action at left tackle when long-time starter Cordy Glenn got hurt and allowed just 3 sacks and 3 hits, while committing just 4 penalties, in 11 rookie year starts. Dawkins played well enough for the Bills to trade Glenn in the off-season, but Dawkins was not nearly as good in his second season in the league, allowing 7 sacks and 2 hits, while committing 13 penalties in 16 starts. Dawkins has the potential to bounce back in his third season in the league though and could still develop into a Pro-Bowl caliber player long-term.

Left guard Will Hernandez (NY Giants)

The 34th overall pick in 2018, Will Hernandez’s rookie year was overshadowed by Quenton Nelson, who went 6th overall and made the All-Pro team as a rookie, but Hernandez looks to have a bright future as well, after finishing 22nd among guards on PFF as a rookie. At 6-2 340 pounds, Hernandez was known for his run blocking coming out of college, but he also held up in pass protection as a rookie, allowing just 5 sacks and 3 hits, while committing only 2 penalties total. With the Giants getting rid of Odell Beckham this off-season, they’ll likely try to run the ball more in 2019 and Hernandez fits the hard nosed style of football they want to play. He could easily take a step forward and earn Pro-Bowl consideration in his second season in the league.

Center James Daniels (Chicago)

Daniels primarily makes this list for lack of a better option, but the 2018 2nd round pick was considered by many to be the top center prospect in his draft class. Daniels’ 10 rookie year starts came out of position at left guard, where he held up well in pass protection (0 sacks, 3 hits), but predictably struggled to get push in the run game. His 6-3 295 frame made him one of the smallest starting guards in the league, but now he’s moving back to his natural position of center, where his lack of size will be less of an issue. A second year breakout year is certainly within the realm of possibilities. 

Right guard Chris Lindstrom (Atlanta)

Lindstrom is the only rookie on this list and, like Daniels, largely makes this list of lack of a better option. Lindstrom was selected 14th overall by the Falcons and the former tackle was one of the best pass blocking guards in college football last season. Largely expected to be a week 1 starter, a Pro-Bowl appearance might be a little much to expect him as a rookie, but he could easily develop into that kind of player long-term. 

Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk (New Orleans)

Ramczyk could have easily made the Pro-Bowl in either of his first 2 seasons in the league, as he’s been responsible for just 7 sacks, 7 hits, and 9 penalties in 31 career starts, while finishing 9th and 6th respectively among offensive tackles on PFF. Right tackles don’t always get the Pro-Bowl consideration they deserve, but Ramczyk is arguably the best right tackle in the league and could easily get stronger Pro-Bowl consideration in his 3rd season in the league.

Interior Defender Vita Vea (Tampa Bay)

The 12th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, Vea’s career got off to a rough start when he suffered a calf strain early in training camp that kept him out through week 4. Despite that, Vea had a solid rookie year overall. The 6-4 347 pounder isn’t just a big run stuffer, with 3 sacks and a 10.2% pressure rate as a rookie. He was especially good down the stretch, after he was completely past his injury, with a 12.8% pressure rate in his final 6 games. Vea also saw his snaps per game go up to 46.8 in his final 6 games, after averaging 30.3 snaps per game in his first 7 games. If he can avoid further injury, he could easily have a breakout second season in the league.

Interior Defender Da’Shawn Hand (Detroit)

Hand was just a 4th round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, but he came with more upside than a typical fourth rounder. Once the top recruit in the country, Hand had an underwhelming collegiate career at the University of Alabama, but he showed off his athletic upside at the combine with a 4.83 40 at 6-4 297, which lead to the Lions taking a chance on him in the 4th round. So far, that chance seems to have paid off. Hand didn’t play a ton as a rookie, but he earned more playing time as the season went on, averaging 39.6 snaps per game in his final 9 games before suffering a season ending knee injury week 14, and he earned above average grades from PFF for both his run stuffing and pass rushing. 

Overall, he was PFF’s 13th ranked interior defender and he had 3 sacks and a 9.5% pressure rate on 263 pass rush snaps. It could be tough for him to see a significantly bigger role with the Lions adding Mike Daniels and Trey Flowers to what looks like a loaded defensive line, but if Hand continues developing it’ll be hard to keep him off the field and 40 snaps per game is plenty of time for him to disrupt offenses. More talent around him could allow him to have more easy shots at the quarterback.

Edge Defender Bradley Chubb (Denver)

It’s a bit of a surprise that Chubb didn’t make the Pro-Bowl as a rookie. Chubb had name recognition as the 5th overall pick in the draft and his 12 sacks were 14th most in the NFL. Chubb wasn’t quite as great as those sack numbers suggest, as much of his pass rush production came from having Von Miller disrupting the passer on the other side, and he finished just 50th among edge defenders on PFF, but Chubb also had a 12.5% pressure rate on his own and could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league. With Miller still lining up opposite him, Chubb has a good chance to break double digit sacks again, which could easily send him to his first Pro-Bowl. 

Edge Defender Carl Lawson (Cincinnati)

A 4th round pick in 2017, Lawson’s career got off to a promising start, when he had 8.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate as a rookie. Lawson only had 1 sack in 2018, but he added 7 hits and a 13.6% pressure rate in 7 games before going down for the season with a torn ACL. The injury definitely complicates his long-term progression, but Lawson looked like one of the best young edge rushers in the league before getting hurt and could easily pick up right where he left off. If he does, double digit sacks and a Pro-Bowl trip wouldn’t be a surprise from him in his third season in the league.

Linebacker Jayon Brown (Tennessee)

Just a 5th round pick in 2017, Brown struggled when forced into action as a rookie, finishing as PFF’s 76th ranked linebacker out of 99 eligible on 487 snaps. He made a big leap from year one to year two though and finished the 2018 season as PFF’s 9th ranked linebacker on 852 snaps. The undersized 6-0 226 pounder wasn’t great against the run, but he was one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, allowing just 5.09 yards per attempt and no touchdowns on 56 targets. He’s also an adept blitzer, totalling 6 sacks last season and pressuring the quarterback on 18.1% of his 144 career blitzes. He’s a perfect fit as a linebacker in the modern NFL and could easily make his first Pro-Bowl in 2019.

Linebacker Matt Milano (Buffalo)

Milano is similar to Jayon Brown, as an undersized (6-0 223) linebacker who went in the 5th round in 2017. Milano flashed on 450 rookie year snaps and then took a step forward as an every down player in his second season in the league in 2018, ranking 16th among linebackers on PFF before going down for the season with a broken leg in week 14. Like Brown, he isn’t great against the run, but he was one of the best coverage linebackers in the league last season, allowing the 2nd lowest QB rating into his coverage of any linebacker in the league, picking off 3 passes and only allowing a reception every 13.2 coverage snaps (8th in the NFL among linebackers). If he can rebound from his broken leg and make it through the season healthy, he has Pro-Bowl potential.

Cornerback Marlon Humphrey (Baltimore)

The 16th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Humphrey has allowed just 49.7% completion and 5.87 yards per attempt in two seasons in the league, but he has only started 13 of 30 games, as part of arguably the deepest cornerback group in the NFL. The Ravens still have three other cornerbacks set to make more than 6 million dollars in 2019 (Tavon Young, Jimmy Smith, and Brandon Carr), but Humphrey has shown he deserves an every down role. He looks like a future #1 cornerback and could easily have a breakout third season in the league.

Cornerback Tre’Davious White (Buffalo)

Tre’Davious White easily could have made the Pro-Bowl as a rookie in 2017, when he allowed 50.0% completion, deflected 12 passes, and committed just 3 penalties, but he ended up getting snubbed. In 2018, he wasn’t nearly as good, allowing 57.5% completion, deflecting 5 passes, and committing 10 penalties. Despite the sophomore slump, the 2017 27th overall pick still has a bright future and could easily bounce back to being one of the top cornerbacks in the league in his third season in the league in 2019. If he does that and a couple of those deflections turn into interceptions (just 4 picks as a rookie), he’ll definitely draw Pro-Bowl attention. 

Cornerback Adoree Jackson (Tennessee)

Selected 18th overall in 2017, Adoree Jackson hasn’t quite played at a Pro-Bowl level yet, but his career is off to a solid start, as he’s finished 36th and 31st respectively among cornerbacks on PFF in his 2 seasons in the league. Now going into his 3rd season in the league, he could easily take another step forward. One big thing that would help him make his first Pro Bowl appearance is coming down with more interceptions. He had just 2 in his career so far, but he’s deflected another 23 passes, so it’s not as if he’s not making plays on the ball. 

Safety John Johnson (LA Rams)

Despite playing for a high profile Rams team, John Johnson doesn’t get a lot of national attention, but he looks like a budding young star at the safety position. Drafted in the 3rd round in 2017, Johnson barely played in his first 5 games, but he’s started all 27 games since and has finished 11th and 8th respectively among safeties on PFF. Not even 24 until December, Johnson could easily take another step forward in his 3rd season in the league and earn Pro-Bowl recognition for the first time.

Safety Malik Hooker (Indianapolis)

Malik Hooker went 15th overall in 2017 and was considered a top-10 talent by most, falling because of durability concerns. The scouting report has proven to be accurate with Hooker, as he’s played well when on the field, but he’s missed 11 games with injury in 2 seasons in the league, including a torn ACL that ended his rookie season after 7 games. Hooker was PFF’s 13th ranked safety in 14 games in his first season back after the ACL tear in 2018 and, only going into his age 23 season, he still has a high ceiling if he can avoid injury.

Last year, I made my own version of Bill Barnwell’s “Perfect Roster.” The idea is, following certain criteria, to build the best team you can fit under the NFL’s 188.2 million dollar cap. This year, I’m bringing it back. This is my version of the team. Below are the criteria in Barnwell’s own words (last year’s version, so all years get moved forward, and the salary cap has increased).

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	2017 1st	$4,479,776
Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	2016 4th	$2,120,849
Taysom Hill	NO	QB	2017 UND	$735,000

Last year, there was more debate about the quarterbacks, with Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott all on rookie contracts. This year, it would be hard to take anyone but Pat Mahomes. Not only is Mahomes the reigning league MVP, but with a cap hit under 4.5 million for 2019, he’s also easily the league’s best value. Dak Prescott remains on the team as a backup because he gives them a franchise caliber quarterback that can step in if needed at a very reasonable price. Taysom Hill is listed as a quarterback, but he’s mostly on the team for special teams purposes. Hill could see a few snaps as a gadget player, but I wouldn’t want to take Mahomes or any of my other offensive starters off the field regularly for a gadget player, so Hill won’t have much of an offensive role in any capacity.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	2017 3rd	$1,050,693
Chris Carson	SEA	RB	2017 7th	$661,282
Phillip Lindsay	DEN	RB	2018 UND	$575,000
James Develin	NE	FB	Veteran	$1,600,000

Alvin Kamara is one of the top running backs in the league and a clear choice out of the 2017 3rd round picks. Phillip Lindsay is a bit of a redundant talent, but he’s the obvious choice out of 2018 undrafted free agents, after becoming the first offensive undrafted free agent in NFL history to make the Pro Bowl as a rookie. He provides strong insurance for Kamara. Chris Carson is a power back who can compliment Lindsay and Kamara and is an easy choice among 2017 7th round picks. James Develin is a do everything veteran fullback who comes at a very reasonable price. 

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	Veteran	$8,105,000
Michael Thomas	NO	WR	2016 2nd	$1,628,763
JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	2017 2nd	$1,144,302
Jakeem Grant	MIA	WR	2016 6th	$755,096
Hakeem Butler	ARZ	WR	2019 4th	$696,126
Kelvin Harmon	WAS	WR	2019 6th	$526,960

Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster are arguably the two best rookie contract wide receivers in the league and, while Adam Thielen is on a 4-year, 64.2 million dollar veteran extension, because of how the deal is structured, his cap number is just 8.105 million for 2019, which makes him a bargain. Thielen, Thomas, and Smith-Schuster make a dominant top trio, so depth isn’t a huge concern, but Jakeem Grant gives me a situational deep threat who can also contribute as a return man (and fills the need for a 2016 6th round pick) and Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon are developmental prospects who I thought were the best players selected in their respective rounds in this past draft. 

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce	KC	TE	Veteran	$10,718,400
Nick Boyle	BAL	TE	Veteran	$3,333,333
Tyler Eifert	CIN	TE	Veteran	$3,025,000
Jordan Thomas	HOU	TE	2018 6th	$599,602

Travis Kelce is arguably the top overall tight end in the league, so he was worth splurging for at a 10.718 million dollar cap hit. He’s one of just 5 players on this roster with an 8 figure cap hit. Nick Boyle won’t win any foot races, but he’s arguably the best run blocking tight end in the league and he also provides a reliable set of hands as an underneath receiver at a very reasonable cap number. Tyler Eifert is another inexpensive veteran. He’s an injury risk, but has the talent to be one of the top tight ends in the league when healthy, so he’s worth a shot. Jordan Thomas is a developmental prospect who fills the requirement for a 2018 6th round pick. 

Offensive Line

David Bakhtiari	GB	OL	Veteran	$14,200,000
Zack Martin	DAL	OL	Veteran	$14,000,000
Rob Havenstein	LAR	OL	Veteran	$8,300,000
Joel Bitonio	CLE	OL	Veteran	$7,000,000
Mitchell Schwartz	KC	OL	Veteran	$6,430,000
Jason Kelce	PHI	OL	Veteran	$2,444,000
Austin Blythe	LAR	OL	2016 7th	$2,025,000
Chase Rouiller	WAS	OL	2017 6th	$681,792

Like last year, the offensive line is where I spent the bulk of my cap space on veteran players. David Bakhtiari and Zack Martin are arguably the best offensive tackle and guard respectively in the league and are worth their large cap hits. Joel Bitonio and Jason Kelce are also among the best in the league at their position and have below market cap hits. Same with Mitchell Schwartz and Rob Havenstein at right tackle, though those two will have to compete with each other for the starting job. Autsin Blythe has developed into an above average starting right guard for the Rams, after being a mere 7th round pick in 2016. He provides versatile depth and a spot starter in case injuries strike on the interior and he fills a draft requirement. Chase Rouiller fills my requirement for a 2017 6th round pick and also provides versatile depth, though the Redskins’ starting center is only about an average starter. 

Interior Defenders

Aaron Donald	LAR	ID	Veteran	$17,108,000
Kenny Clark	GB	ID	2016 1st	$2,978,707
DJ Reader	HOU	ID	2016 5th	$2,078,845
Da’Shawn Hand	DET	ID	2018 4th	$740,491
Terry Beckner	TB	ID	2019 7th	$523,079

Even at a cap hit of over 17 million, I had to have Aaron Donald, the most dominant player in the NFL, on this team. He’ll start next to Kenny Clark, who has quietly developed into one of the best interior defenders in the league and has just a 2.979 million dollar cap hit, despite going in the first round in 2016. DJ Reader is a situational run stuffer from the 2016 5th round, Da’Shawn Hand is a situational pass rusher from the 2018 4th round, while Terry Beckner is a developmental prospect who was the first pick in the 7th round in 2019 and fills my requirement for a Buccaneer. 

Edge Defenders

Khalil Mack	CHI	ED	Veteran	$11,900,000
Josh Allen	JAX	ED	2019 1st	$4,135,025
Lorenzo Alexander	BUF	ED	Veteran	$3,750,000
Brandon Graham	PHI	ED	Veteran	$3,500,000
Chase Winovich	NE	ED	2019 3rd	$744,328

Khalil Mack has signed a 6-year, 141 million dollar extension, but his cap number is just 11.9 million, so I can sneak him on to my team. Good luck trying to block him and Donald at the same time. Brandon Graham also got a big long-term deal, re-signing for 40 million over 3 years this off-season, but the cap strapped Eagles structured his deal in a way that keeps his cap hit at 3.5 million for 2019. He’s going into his 30s, but is still one of the better pass rushers in the league on a per snap basis. Lorenzo Alexander gives me a versatile player who can rush the passer, play standup linebacker, and play special teams at a very reasonable price. Josh Allen could end up being the top player from the 2019 NFL Draft and he comes at the price of the 7th overall pick (cap hit 2.2 million dollars less than the 1st overall pick). Allen woukd have a situational role as a pass rusher as a rookie, even on a loaded team. Chase Winovich is another developmental prospect and was a strong value pick in the 3rd round. 

Linebackers

Luke Kuechly	CAR	LB	Veteran	$9,962,573
Zach Brown	PHI	LB	Veteran	$2,500,000
Darius Leonard	IND	LB	2018 2nd	$1,647,228
Leon Jacobs	JAX	LB	2018 7th	$592,670
Blake Cashman	NYJ	LB	2019 5th	$570,773
Te’Von Coney	OAK	LB	2019 UND	$498,000

Luke Kuechly is arguably the top linebacker in the league and he comes at a significant discount compared to his top competition for that role, Bobby Wagner, who has a 14.0375 million dollar cap hit. Darius Leonard is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and was obviously a smart choice in the second round in 2018, while Zach Brown is a veteran run stuffer who comes at a reasonable price and can play as a 3rd linebacker in base packages. Leon Jacobs, Blake Cashman, and Te’Von Coney fill draft and team requirements and can play special teams. 

Cornerbacks

Stephon Gilmore	NE	CB	Veteran	$9,170,833
Byron Jones	DAL	CB	2015 1st	$6,266,000
Jason Verrett	SF	CB	Veteran	$1,500,000
Byron Murphy	ARZ	CB	2019 2nd	$1,452,636
Desmond King	LAC	CB	2017 5th	$714,998

Stephon Gilmore is arguably the top cornerback in the league and his cap hit is reasonable, despite a 5-year, 65 million dollar deal. Byron Jones is also one of the top cornerbacks in the league and he fills my requirement for a 2015 1st round pick on a 5th year option without breaking the bank (like top-10 picks Leonard Williams, Brandon Scherff, and Amari Cooper would have at cap hits of over 12.5 million). Desmond King went in the same round as George Kittle, so he wasn’t a no brainer addition to this team, but he’s already arguably the top slot cornerback in the league and adds value as a return man as well, which gives him the edge over Kittle. Jason Verrett is an inexpensive injury flyer who has the talent to contribute if healthy and he fills the requirement for a 49er. Byron Murphy probably wouldn’t play much, but he was a strong pick in this year’s second round and has a lot of long-term potential. 

Safeties

Derwin James	LAC	S	2018 1st	$2,815,671
Kevin Byard	TEN	S	2016 3rd	$2,249,265
Justin Reid	HOU	S	2018 3rd	$924,893
Eddie Jackson	CHI	S	2017 4th	$811,449

Derwin James, Kevin Byard, and Eddie Jackson are all among the top safeties in the league and all are on rookie deals. More and more teams and using 3 safeties at the same time with regularity, so I think we’d figure out how to use Byard, James, and Jackson at the same time. Justin Reid wouldn’t play much on defense behind those three, but he was a solid starter as a rookie for the Texans and is one of the most impressive players from the 2018 3rd round. What gives him the edge is his ability to play special teams in addition to defense.

Special Teams

Michael Dickson	SEA	P	2018 5th	$642,537
Aldrick Rosas	NYG	K	2016 UND	$645,000
Josh Harris	ATL	LS	Veteran	$930,000

Michael Dickson and Aldrick Rosas are among the best in the league at their position and are inexpensive in terms of draft compensation and salary. I don’t know much about Josh Harris, but I needed a long snapper and someone from the Falcons and he fits perfectly into the remaining cap space I have. He’s been long snapping for the Falcons since 2012, so he has to be doing something right.

33. Arizona Cardinals – OT Cody Ford (Oklahoma)

 

Cody Ford was expected to go off the board on day 1. He would make sense for the Cardinals, who need to protect Kyler Murray better than they protected Josh Rosen. Teams that take a quarterback in the first round unsurprisingly usually use their next pick on another offensive player.

 

34. Indianapolis Colts – WR AJ Brown (Mississippi)

 

I had the Colts taking AJ Brown at 26 in my mock yesterday. They moved out of that pick, but could still target Brown at 34. He’ll fill a big need for them as a long-term complement to TY Hilton.

 

35. Oakland Raiders – TE Irv Smith (Alabama)

 

The Raiders have next to nothing at the tight end position. I thought they might address this position with one of their three first rounders, but they can still do so at 35 with Irv Smith, who many expected to go in the first.

 

36. San Francisco 49ers – CB Byron Murphy (Washington)

 

The 49ers need cornerback help and could have their pick of three cornerbacks (Byron Murphy, Greedy Williams, and Rock Ya-Sin) who many expected to go in the first round. DeAndre Baker was the only first round cornerback this year, but some preferred Murphy as the top cornerback in the draft.

 

37. Seattle Seahawks – CB Greedy Williams (LSU)

 

The Seahawks are another team with a cornerback need that could address it in the early second round. I had the Seahawks taking Greedy Williams at 21 in my mock draft yesterday and he continues to make sense for them.

 

38. Jacksonville Jaguars – OT Jawaan Taylor (Florida)

 

The Jaguars were linked to Jawaan Taylor with the 7th pick, but Josh Allen fell to them and Taylor ended up falling out of the first round entirely, due to injury concerns. He may not last long on day 2 though and the Jaguars fill a big need by drafting him.

 

39. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – OLB Jaylon Ferguson (Louisiana Tech)

 

The Buccaneers could use more edge rush depth, with both Carl Nassib and Shaq Barrett set to hit free agency next off-season. Jaylon Ferguson is a player the Buccaneers have shown a lot of interest in and he should come off the board sometime in the 2nd round.

 

40. Buffalo Bills – CB Rock Ya-Sin (Temple)

 

Rock Ya-Sin is another cornerback who easily could have gone in the first round. The Bills took fliers on Kevin Johnson and EJ Gaines in free agency as potential starters opposite Tre’Davious White at cornerback, but both players are injury prone and on one-year deals. Rock Ya-Sin can be a long-term starter.

 

41. Denver Broncos – QB Drew Lock (Missouri)

 

The Broncos clearly weren’t eager to address the quarterback position in the first round, but if they really like Drew Lock as has been rumored they might still be able to him in the 2nd round. The Broncos have talked up Joe Flacco since acquiring him, but they didn’t give much up to get him and it’ll be hard to justify paying him 44.5 million between 2020-2021 when the Broncos could take a development quarterback to start long-term instead.

 

42. Cincinnati Bengals – MLB Mack Wilson (Alabama)

 

Everyone knew the Bengals wanted to take Devin Bush at 11 in the first round, which is why the Steelers moved up to 10 to take him instead. The Bengals can address their linebacker need on day 2 with a lesser prospect.

 

43. Detroit Lions – CB Lonnie Johnson (Kentucky)
44. Green Bay Packers – WR DK Metcalf (Mississippi)
45. Los Angeles Rams – C Erik McCoy (Texas A&M)
46. Indianapolis Colts – DT Dre’Mont Jones (Ohio State)
47. Carolina Panthers – S Juan Thornhill (Virginia)
48. Miami Dolphins – C Elgton Jenkins (Mississippi State)
49. Cleveland Browns – CB Sean Bunting (Western Michigan)
50. Minnesota Vikings – CB Trayvon Mullen (Clemson)
51. Tennessee Titans – OLB Jachai Polite (Florida)
52. Denver Broncos – WR Deebo Samuel (South Carolina)
53. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Parris Campbell (Ohio State)
54. Houston Texans – CB JoeJuan Williams (Vanderbilt)
55. Houston Texans – RB Damien Harris (Alabama)
56. New England Patriots – QB Will Grier (West Virginia)
57. Philadelphia Eagles – RB Darrell Henderson (Memphis)
58. Dallas Cowboys – TE Dawson Knox (Mississippi)
59. Indianapolis Colts – MLB Te’Von Coney (Notre Dame)
60. Los Angeles Chargers – OT Greg Little (Mississippi)
61. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Julian Love (Notre Dame)
62. New Orleans Saints – WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Stanford)
63. Kansas City Chiefs – S Kacey Gardner-Johnson (Florida)
64. New England Patriots – DT Isaiah Buggs (Alabama)