32(32). Indianapolis Colts 0-13

31(31). St. Louis Rams 2-11

30(30). Minnesota Vikings 2-11

29(28). Cleveland Browns 4-9

28(21). Miami Dolphins 4-9

27(24). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-9

26(26). Carolina Panthers 4-9

25(27). Washington Redskins 4-9

24(23). Kansas City Chiefs 5-8

23(29). Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9

22(25). Buffalo Bills 5-8

21(22). Philadelphia Eagles 5-8

20(19). Seattle Seahawks 6-7

19(18). Arizona Cardinals 6-7

18(16). Chicago Bears 7-6

17(20). San Diego Chargers 6-7

16(17). New York Giants 7-6

15(11). Cincinnati Bengals 7-6

14(15). Oakland Raiders 7-6

13(14). Dallas Cowboys 7-6

12(12). Tennessee Titans 7-6

11(13). Detroit Lions 8-5

10(10). New York Jets 8-5

9(8). Atlanta Falcons 8-5

8(9). Denver Broncos 8-5

7(6). San Francisco 49ers 10-3

6(5). Baltimore Ravens 10-3

5(4). Pittsburgh Steelers 10-3

4(7). Houston Texans 10-3

3(3). New Orleans Saints 10-3

2(2). New England Patriots 10-3

1(1). Green Bay Packers 10-3

1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 

11. G Carl Nicks (New Orleans)- Signed with Tampa Bay for 5 years 47.5 million with 31 million guaranteed

Nicks was rated the 2^nd best guard in the league by ProFootballFocus and doesn’t turn 27 until May. He wants to be paid as such and wants to use teammate Jahri Evans’ 7 year 56.7 million dollar deal as a starting point for negotiations. With Drew Brees and Marques Colston also to resign, that could price Nicks out of New Orleans. Dallas is known to be very interested.  

12. WR Wes Welker (New England)- Franchise tagged

Since the Patriots traded for him in 2007, Welker has caught 554 passes for 6104 yards and 31 touchdowns, which makes him the most productive receiver in the league over that time and that’s even though he tore his ACL and MCL at the tail end of the 2009 season, which sapped his production in 2010. Welker turns 31 this offseason, which makes him older than most who are rated high on this list. I also wonder how productive he’d be outside of New England’s system and without Tom Brady throwing him the ball. But we won’t find out. Welker is expected to be franchised and it would be in his best interest to sign a team friendly deal and give a hometown discount.

13. MLB Stephen Tulloch (Detroit)- Resigned 5 years 25 million with 11 million guaranteed

Over the last 3 seasons, Tulloch has 392 tackles. Despite 160 tackles in 2010, Tulloch had to take a small one year deal in Detroit last offseason. He won’t come as cheap this offseason. Tulloch has played his whole career in a wide 9 scheme, starting in Tennessee and then in Detroit last year. For this reason, Philadelphia seems like the leader to sign him, though he could stay in Detroit.

14. RB Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)- Resigned for 4 years 32 million with 18 million guaranteed

Marshawn Lynch was one of the most productive and entertaining running backs in the league last year, rushing for 1204 yards and 12 touchdowns on 285 carries, but I would be worried about giving someone known as an underachiever with character issues a big, long term deal after finally living up to his potential in a contract year. The 2007 11^th overall pick, Lynch may stop giving 100% as soon as he gets paid. However, he doesn’t turn 26 until April and he is a former 1^st round pick. With 1137 career carries, a 4 year deal should be safe for him, but I do have some worries.

15. WR Vincent Jackson (San Diego)- Signed with Tampa Bay for 5 years 55.5 million with 26 million guaranteed

It looks like Vincent Jackson is finally going to get his money. After sitting out most of the season in 2010 to holdout and then almost holding up the lockout to ensure he couldn’t be franchise tagged before the 2011 season (unsuccessfully), Jackson is not expected to be franchise tagged this offseason, which would free him up to sign a long term deal anywhere. He could be back in San Diego, but I give him a 50/50 shot to leave. In his last 3 non-holdout seasons, Jackson has 187 catches for 3371 yards and 25 touchdowns, though having Philip Rivers at quarterback certainly helps. Jackson is one of the older players in the top 15, but he is only 29.

16. WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)- Resigned for 5 years 40 million with 19 million guaranteed

Colston was a mere 7^th round pick in 2006, but he had the last laugh as he and Drew Brees have combined for 449 catches, 6240 yards, and 48 touchdowns in 6 seasons. In every season in which he’s played more than 14 games, Colston has caught at least 70 passes for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns, including 80 catches for 1143 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. You have to wonder how he’d do without Drew Brees, however. With New Orleans needing to resign Drew Brees and Carl Nicks as well, Colston could go elsewhere in search of more money. He turns 29 in June.

17. CB Cortland Finnegan (Tennessee)- Signed in St. Louis for 5 years 50 million with 24 million guaranteed

A 6 year starter in Tennessee, Finnegan could go elsewhere this offseason unless he’s franchised, possibly to St. Louis to reunite with Jeff Fisher. This season, he allowed just 5.6 YPA and 2 touchdowns all season, though he did so while picking off a mere 1 pass. In 6 years, Finnegan hasn’t displayed a lot of ball skills, picking off only 14 passes, just over 2 per season. The 5-10 cornerback just turned 28.

18. C Chris Myers (Houston)- Resigned 4 years 25 million with 14 million guaranteed

ProFootballFocus ranked Chris Myers as the top center in the league last year and rightfully so. He’s the leader of one of the best offensive lines in the league. The two questions with him are how good he’d be outside of Houston’s system and his age, 31 in September. Myers is worth more to Houston than any other team and should be their priority to resign, even if it means losing Mario Williams. Their defense was fine without Williams last year, but losing one offensive lineman can derail a whole line. Just ask Atlanta how much they miss Harvey Dahl.

19. MLB/OLB Curtis Lofton (Atlanta)- Signed with New Orleans 5 years 33.5 million

A 2^nd round pick in 2008, Lofton has emerged has one of the best middle linebackers in the league. 26 in June, Lofton has 398 tackles over the last 3 years and has been the vocal leader of Atlanta’s defense.

20. NT/DT Sione Pouha (NY Jets)- Resigned for 3 years 15 million with 9.5 million guaranteed

Not much of a pass rusher, but Pouha was ranked by ProFootballFocus as the 2^nd best run stuffing defensive tackle in the league last year and the best overall defensive tackle. 33 years old, Pouha has good value for at least 2-3 years as a 2 down run stuffer in a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense. The Jets will push to resign him.

9/3/11: Alex Smith has looked absolutely awful this preseason. Maybe he hasn’t been that bad, but his offensive line isn’t doing him any favors either. They played horrifically and that was one part of this team that they were counting on to be at least decent. They have the playmakers offensively, Frank Gore, Braylon Edwards, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree, but if they line and quarterback can’t play well, their offense won’t function well. Defensively, they’re a barren waste field for the most part. This is my pick for the worst team in the league. 

In the prime of the Mike Singletary era (by prime, I mean when people actually thought this team had a shot at making the playoffs), this team was known for its defense. However, the offense has somehow become the team’s best unit and no, it’s not because the offense got that much better. Alex Smith is still their quarterback so that should be all you need to know about that.

Their defense was absolutely ravaged by free agency. They lost 4 starters on defense. Aubrayo Franklin is gone. Takeo Spikes is gone. Nate Clements is gone. Manny Lawson is gone. Lawson will be the easiest to replace. The 49ers spent the 7^th overall pick on Aldon Smith and besides, Lawson was never that great. He never fit the 49ers 3-4 defense because he couldn’t rush the passer to save his life. Smith will be learning a new position and will be hurt by the lockout, but he could lead this team in sacks this season.

In order to replace Aubrayo Franklin, the 49ers are moving Isaac Sopoaga from defensive end to nose tackle, while the mediocre Ray McDonald, who somehow got a 5 year deal this offseason, will start at defensive end. They also plan to use Ricky Jean-Francois, a very inexperienced player, at both positions. They’ll really miss Franklin’s run stuffing, a huge part of the reason why they were 2^nd in the league against the run last year.

Another run stuffer they’ll miss is Takeo Spikes at middle linebacker. Spikes is an older player, but he was still an above average run stuffer last year. The 49ers will try to replace him with Navorro Bowman, a 2010 3^rd round pick, who played alright in limited action as a rookie.

Possibly their biggest loss defensively, however, is Nate Clements. Clements wasn’t worth what they were paying him, but he was their best defensive back. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Carlos Rogers, a marginal and injury prone player. They don’t have a lot of depth. Phillip Adams, a 7^th round pick in 2010, will play in the nickel, while rookie 3^rd round pick Chris Culliver figures to be the 4^th cornerback.

Shawntae Spencer, a marginal player, will move to the left side to be their #1 cornerback, which should be a very bad thought for 49er fans. Spencer allowed a 70.1% completion rate and 4 touchdowns to 3 interceptions last season as the #2 cornerback. He’ll be even worse as the #1 guy. They could be the worst team against the pass next year with their lack of talented pass rushers and defensive backs.

In fact, you could make a case that Patrick Willis and Justin Smith are their only two proven, talented defensive players. Aldon Smith and Navorro Bowman have upside, but those are the only two proven, talented defensive players. Smith, a massively underrated player, starts at the 3^rd defensive line spot next to McDonald and Sopoaga. Smith led the team with 8.5 sacks and 39 quarterback pressures last season and is also a beast against the run.

Willis, meanwhile, is properly rated, but that doesn’t many he’s not an amazing player and arguably the best linebacker in the league. He should once again play like one of, if not the top middle linebacker in the league. Joining Willis at linebacker will be Navorro Bowman, their 2^nd middle linebacker, Aldon Smith, their top rush linebacker, and either Parys Haralson or Ahmad Brooks.

Brooks has never managed more than 6 sacks in a season, while Haralson has only once managed more than 5 in a season. The two combined for 9 sacks last season. Though he wasn’t a starter, Travis LaBoy’s absence will also be felt. LaBoy was only a nickel rusher, but he had 5 sacks and 20 quarterback pressures in only 353 snaps in 2010.

At the safety positions, Donte Whitner, a free agent acquisition is expected to start at strong safety over Taylor Mays, who was recently listed on Craiglist. Whitner was one of the worst coverage safeties in the league last year, but sort of made up for that with strong play against the run. At free safety, a three way battle for the ages (sarcasm) is taking place.

Madieu Williams, another one of the worst coverage safeties in the league last year, is currently winning that battle over the incumbent Dashon Goldson. Young Reggie Smith is likely not going to win it and focus on special teams instead. Goldson isn’t as bad as Williams in coverage, but he’s not great either. He’s a fairly mediocre safety. That’s why no one had any interest in him when the 49ers let him test the open market this offseason.

By default, their offense should be their best unit this year. They have an offensive minded offensive Head Coach for the first time in what seems like forever. Jim Harbaugh is an offensive genius, but he’s not a miracle worker so I don’t know how much he can get out of Alex Smith. If Smith struggles, we could see 2^nd round pick rookie Colin Kaepernick, though the 49ers would prefer to wait until 2012 for him to become the starter. Smith has decent talent around him, however.

Frank Gore is a talented lead back who also contributes in the passing game as a receiver. When he inevitably gets hurt, rookie 4^th round pick Kendall Hunter and 2010 5^th round pick Anthony Dixon will split carries. Braylon Edwards will be the #1 receiver. He will be extremely motivated this season and he plays really well when motivated. He didn’t get the long term deal he wanted on the open market. Instead, he got a one year deal with 2.5 million dollars in incentives for making the Pro Bowl. He’ll work his ass off for that 2.5 million and for a long term contract in a more traditional offseason next year.

Talented tight end Vernon Davis gives Alex Smith two talented downfield targets, but Michael Crabtree could struggle this year. Crabtree, once considered a steal at 10 in 2009, is missing his 3^rd straight preseason with an injury. He didn’t work out in the team in the offseason either because he didn’t know who the quarterback was. He’s clearly the 3^rd option on this team, which means he’s not going to catch a lot of balls. Alex Smith isn’t good enough for 3 receivers to get their numbers. That could piss off Crabtree, who has acted like a diva to this point in his career.

The offensive line has its share of problems. One of the 49ers’ rare free agent signings, Jonathan Goodwin replaces David Baas at center. Goodwin was decent last year, but at 33 could easily decline this season, especially with a new team coming out of a lockout. Left tackle Joe Staley is a mediocre talent who belongs on the right side.

Right tackle Anthony Davis, the 11^th overall pick in 2010, was absolutely terrible as a rookie, allowing 11 sacks, 37 quarterback pressures, and committing 10 penalties. He was supposed to be better in his 2^nd year, but he continued to struggle in the 49ers first preseason game. Guards Chilo Rachal and Mike Iupati are the bright spots on this line. Iupati had a strong rookie year and figures to be better this season.

I don’t see a lot of talent on this roster. They have a good offensive minded Head Coach and several talented weapons on offense, but they don’t have the quarterback or the offensive line to be that great of an offense. Meanwhile, their defense was ravaged by free agency and could be one of the league’s worst stop units in 2011, especially against the pass. Their schedule isn’t that hard so they will win some games. Also, somehow this isn’t even the worst team in their division.

Quarterback: D

Running backs: B+

Receiving corps: C+

Offensive line: C-

Run defense: B-

Pass rush: C

Pass coverage: D

Coaching: B

Projection: 3-13 4th in NFC West

1^st quarter

13:14: Chapman breaks into the backfield.

9:57: Jones opens a hole for Richardson.

0:04: Jones asked to block for a long time as the quarterback pump fakes one too many times, Jones allows the strip sack deep in their own territory, returned for a touchdown.

2^nd quarter

14:24: Jones stands up a spin move well. Other than that sack fumble, which was somewhat on the quarterback, Jones has been winning his matchup with Auburn’s Corey Lemonier, a speedy sophomore defensive end who now has 9.5 sacks on the season.

11:07: Jones gets beat by Lemonier this time, no sack, but a borderline quarterback pressure.

10:21: Jones helps clear out a hole for a powerful highlight reel run for Trent Richardson, where he literally drags like 9 or 10 guys before he goes down.

8:21: Courtney Upshaw gets a sack.

0:59: Upshaw in on a tackle for loss here.

3^rd quarter

4^th quarter

0:00: I left during halftime of this game thinking I could watch the rest on ESPN3, but it wasn’t on there. I’ll respotlight Jones and Chapman in their bowl game, hopefully against LSU.

By Kevin Bonneville

Players are set to report to camp in Flagstaff beginning tomorrow night, which means that I need to finish up Examining The Roster.  Next up, the offensive line, which should be a much improved unit for the upcoming year over years past.

Tackles

Levi Brown: Many people were disappointed when the Cardinals took Brown over Adrian Peterson back in the 2007 draft, but with how bad Arizona’s line was at the time, it was hard to argue against the pick.  Plus, Brown has been pretty good for his first three years in the league.  He will be making the change over to the left side of the line this coming year where he will be playing against top ends week in and week out.  With having a left-handed quarterback though, left tackle isn’t as important if Arizona were starting a righty QB.  Brown should be solid with the change though.

Brandon Keith: With Mike Gandy and Brown starting on the left side, Keith should be the starter at right tackle once the season starts.  He has been the starter throughout the off-season workouts and has played well.  Even though he wasn’t a top pick, the coaching staff has been high on Keith since he was drafted back in 2008 out of Northern Iowa.  Keith’s play and protecting Matt Leinart’s backside will be a major key to this offense having continued success.  Hopefully Keith will be up for the challenge.

Depth guys: Behind Brown and Keith, the guy with the most experience will be Jeremy Bridges.  He started four games last year when injuries hit the line pretty hard.  The 30-year-old can play at both guard and at tackle.  Versatility is always an important quality in an offensive line and Bridges fits right into that mold.  Herman Johnson is another guy that the coaching staff is real high because of how big and strong he is, but he doesn’t have the ideal athleticism to play at tackle.  He could be a heck of a run blocker down the line because the dude is a mammoth.  Jonathan Palmer and Casey Knips will also be in the mix.

Guards

Alan Faneca: The Cards were quick the snatch up Faneca after he was released back in April by the Jets and rightfully so, he is still pretty darn good for his age.  Even though he is nearing 34, he is still playing close to his Pro Bowl level and that is an upgrade over what this line has had at the same spot in recent years.  Faneca has been the starter at left guard since Day One when he signed on the dotted line and there is no reason to think otherwise.

Reggie Wells: Wells was on the left side last season, but with Faneca being on the left side for years now, Wells will be moved over to the right side.  Wells is solid both in run and pass protection and has been one of the Cards most consistent o-linemen over the last couple of years.  Probably the most important thing of all, he can help out Keith, who will need all the help that he can get.

Depth guys: I have talked about Deuce Lutui frequently throughout this off-season because with him wanting a new contract and his suddenly increased body weight.  Lutui has his work cut out for him and it is hard to imagine him starting over Wells because of how he acted over the off-season and how much he will be overweight coming into camp.  You would have to think that the coaching staff isn’t too thrilled with him.  Rex Hadnot was brought over from Cleveland during the off-season and has had several starts over the years.  He will provide nice depth at both guard spots and even at center if need be.

Lyle Sendlein: An undrafted rookie out of Texas, not much was expected out of Sendlein coming out of college, but Russ Grimm changed that.  Sendlein has been the starter at center at three years now and has been the only guy on the line that hasn’t switched positions at one point.  He earned the respect of many after it was learned during the 2009 off-season that he played with a very serious shoulder injury throughout the 2008 season.  Even though he is undersized and gets bullied at times by nose tackles, the former Longhorn has been much better than expected and continues to be the rock on the line.

Depth Guys: Ben Claxton and David Moosman are in the mix for a roster spot, but both are long shots to make it simply because Hadnot can move over and be effective at center if Sendlein gets hurt.

2010 Record: 11-5

Draft Position: 29

2010 Season Recap: Click Here

Offseason Needs: Click Here

Free Agents/Team Transactions: Click Here

Draft Grades: Click Here

Key Offseason Moves: None

Bears Bloggers: Adam McFadden, Ryan Glab, JP Hochbaum

2010 Posts 

Four Downs: Keys to beating the Jets, Four Downs: Keys to beating the Patriots, Game Breakdown: Bears at Lions, Four Downs: Keys to beating the Lions, Four Downs: Keys to beating the Eagles, Game Breakdown: Eagles at Bears, Bears/Dolphins Preview, Four Downs: Keys to beating the Dolphins, Vikings/Bears Preview, Four Downs: Key to beating the Vikings, Four Downs: Keys to beating the Bills, Game Breakdown: Bears at Bills, Why The Bears O-Line Has Become The Safety Position Of Old, Not Much Can Be Solved Against Buffalo, Bears Week 6 Analysis, Game Breakdown: Seahawks at Bears , Four Downs: Keys to beating the Seahawks, Bears Week 5 Thoughts, Here’s To Hoping Todd Collins Survives This Week, Game Breakdown: Bears at Panthers, Four Downs: Keys to beating the Panthers, Mathias Kiwanuka Ruled Out, Game Breakdown: Bears at Giants, Four Downs: Keys to beating the Giants, Bears/Packers Game 3 Analysis

The Saints didn’t have the cap room to retain Carl Nicks, but I don’t think they’ll see a huge difference between him and Ben Grubbs. Guard is not the most important position in the world and Grubbs ranked 9^th on ProFootballFocus last season. I think the difference between Nicks’ ability and Grubbs’ ability is smaller than the difference between Nicks’ contract (5 years, 47.5 million), and Grubbs’ contract (5 years 36 million), especially in terms of guaranteed money (31 million to 16 million).

I really like this move. With Colston back and Grubbs replacing Nicks, assuming Drew Brees doesn’t hold out into the season, the Saints offense should be just as explosive in 2012 as it was in 2011. A week or so ago, that wasn’t necessarily the case.

Grade: A

Spotlight #1: Boise State RB Doug Martin

Spotlight #2: Boise State DT Billy Winn 

1^st quarter

13:06: Martin takes an inside handoff for a few, pushing the pile after contact.

12:19: Martin with a gain of 4, has a lot of guys around him because he doesn’t have great foot speed, but he can break tackles and pushes forward well.

11:17: Martin has no room and is stuffed at the line by a pile.

10:35: Logan Harrell, Fresno State’s best defensive player, with an ugly and stupid offsides penalty on 3^rd and a long goal.

8:42: Doug Martin runs right into an unblocked man near the line of scrimmage. He needs to display better vision.

7:38: Winn disengages from a block and is able to bring down the ball carrier for a short gain on first down.

7:02: Winn run at again and again it’s a very small gain.

4:57: Martin blown up in the backfield by Logan Harrell. Harrell got penetration extremely quickly and Martin had nowhere to go. Harrell is 3^rd in the nation in tackles for loss, but at 6-2 275, he’ll have to move to end at the next level. He’s a mid to late rounder.

3:27: Martin blown up in the backfield by Logan Harrell. I’m making sure to spotlight him at some point this season. Martin is not doing a good job of breaking tackles. He has a mere 8 yards on 6 carries.

2^nd quarter

14:01: Chase Baker, another potential draft pick on Boise State’s defensive line, gets a great quarterback pressure on 3^rd and 2 here. Billy Winn got free too, but Baker was the lead chase man here and forced the Fresno State quarterback to throw it away.

13:50: Martin gets great blocking to the outside, but with his lack of speed, he was only able to get 7. He’s not great in space.

11:52: Martin gets bounced back on a chip block in the backfield.

11:01: Martin finds a decent hole for a few yards. He hasn’t been terrible impressive tonight.

9:54: Martin falls down on another very poor chip block.

9:40: Martin is run at again and the back is stuffed at the line by multiple guys. This Boise State line has once again done a good job against the run.

8:23: Excellent push by Winn, leading to a double team, and he’s still able to hold his own against a double.

1:56: Winn beats his man easily and gets a strip sack and Fresno State turns it over.

1:35: Martin with a short gain. He’s really struggling this year averaging less than 4 yards per carry and now he’s struggling with Fresno State. His stock is dropping.

1:11: Martin on a screen, again gets nowhere thanks to a great tackle by Logan Harrell. Harrell is able to stay with him and not get faked out by Martin’s dancing around.

1:05: Martin on 3^rd and 4 in space on a pass catch in the flat, spins for the first.

0:41: Martin with another reception in the flat. He breaks one tackle in the backfield with a nice stiff arm and he’s able to get a medium sized gain on 2^nd and 10.

3^rd quarter

14:55: Martin takes a huge special teams hit on a kickoff return.

14:40: Martin with his best run of the night, an 8 yarder up the middle. Nice run.

14:08: Martin stuffed at the line again. He had to shake a few tackles just to get there.

12:26: Winn gets good position, but is unable to disengage from a block. He’s run right past.

9:45: Martin with a decent run.

9:27: Martin finally with a big run. He bounces off a tackle up the middle, cuts to the outside and runs with nothing but open field between him and the end zone for a while. 55 yards. He did everything on that run, speed, strength, elusiveness, vision.

8:59: Martin punches it in on the goal line. He’s too big and powerful there.

1:24: Martin is pulled with a 50-0 lead. If Billy Winn is pulled too, I’m calling this scouting report early. No point in me watching a bunch of backups.

4^th quarter

10:46: Winn is out too. That’s all for tonight.

0:00: So I didn’t get to see a full game of either because Boise State had a blowout win here and pulled their starters. However, I did learn some things. I wasn’t terribly impressed with Doug Martin. Martin is being mentioned as a day 2 pick, but I’d have him a little lower than there. He rushed for 94 yards on 16 carries, an average of 5.9 per, but more than half of that came of one 55 yard run. Aside from that run, he had 15 carries for 39 yards.

He looked really slow and while he broke a lot of tackles, a lot of tacklers were able to get to him because he doesn’t have the speed and initial burst necessary to escape them. He had 3 catches and he is a great pass catcher, but he also really struggled as a pass blocker. He can be a decent back at the next level and he doesn’t go down on first contact, but he’s not fast enough to be a consistent back at the next level. He’s averaging roughly 4 yards per carry this season and that’s against a pretty weak schedule. How is he going to maintain a high level at the next level?

As for Billy Winn, he had a good game, as did most of Boise State’s defensive line. Winn held up well when run at decent his smaller size at 6-4 285, but at the same time, he was playing a smaller Fresno State team. He also had a strip sack. I think he belongs in a 3-4 as a defensive end at the next level and he should be a mid round pick. He wasn’t particularly excellent against a weak foe this week and he isn’t having that great of a season, but he’s still good. One final note, Logan Harrell for Fresno State had a huge game against a tough foe in Boise State. I’m spotlighting him next week.

The first 12 games of the Broncos season was more of the same from the 2^nd half of 2009. Finishing the 2009 season with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, the Broncos started the 2010 season with a 3-9 record before Coach Josh McDaniels got canned. The Josh McDaniels era was supposed to be a positive one, with McDaniels taking over for longtime coach Mike Shanahan. The Broncos started 2009 6-0, but it was all downhill from there.

Their first game without McDaniels wasn’t any better, as they lost 43-13 in Arizona, but week 15 everything turned around. An injury to Kyle Orton forced Tim Tebow into the lineup at quarterback and Tebow didn’t disappoint. The 1^st round pick exceeded expectations, going 40 for 81 for 651 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 picks, as well as 199 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 31 carries.

Most importantly, the team simply played better when he was in the lineup. Remember he was doing this with a coaching staff led by a man who started the year as the running backs coach and that he wasn’t even supposed to play this year at all, with the exception of special packages.

Now heading into 2011, the Broncos have a lot of hope. They can bring in a strong coach to coach Tebow up and another offseason of Tebow’s patented hard work should bring Tebow back even better in 2011. The Broncos are one of the favorites for Jim Harbaugh, should the coach leave Stanford. Jon Gruden is also a candidate.

They also have the 2^nd pick in the draft to work with, to boost a defense that gave up 2.1 more points per game than any other team in the league. They also have a valuable trade chip in Kyle Orton, who can net them either a 2^nd round pick or a 3^rd and some other picks.

Quarterback

Auburn

6-5 244

Draft board overall prospect rank: #21

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #1

Overall rating: 84 (late 1st)

40 time: 4.58

3/27/11: I hate this year’s quarterback class. I don’t have a single straight first round grade on a quarterback. Cam Newton is, by default, my top quarterback. He’s certainly a very polarizing quarterback. I’ve heard “Cam Newton is going to be the best quarterback in the NFL” as many times as I’ve heard “Cam Newton is the Vince Young and/or JaMarcus Russell.”

I don’t think assuming he’ll bust because he had some minor character concerns in college and because he’s athletic, black, and raw is smart. However, neither is assuming he’ll dominate the NFL the way he did at Auburn. He dominated Auburn because he was the fastest player on the field at all times, because he had a strong arm, and because Auburn’s one read and go offense catered to his strengths and didn’t expose his weaknesses.

He won’t be the fastest player on the field at all times in the NFL, the way Michael Vick is. He’s a notch slower than Vick so while he’ll really, really fast for a quarterback, he’s not going to be able to rely on that nearly as much as he did in college. Having a strong arm alone isn’t going to cut in the NFL, as we’ve seen so many times, and no team in their right mind would run the offense Auburn ran last year in the NFL, because it wouldn’t work. NFL defensive players are too fast, too athletic, too big and too smart, not to mention how smart most of the minds behind these defenses are.

Newton didn’t run a traditional spread in college. It’s not so much the fact that he’s never taken snaps under center, it’s the simplicity of the offense. Auburn’s offense was essentially, make your first read, if your first option isn’t open, use your natural athleticism to improvise. It was one read and run and then from the run, he’d decide what to do, whether to be pitch it, throw it on the run, or, more often than not, to run it himself.

Newton’s footwork looked very advanced for this stage of his development at his Pro Day. He had a few problems in terms of his footwork and his eventually accuracy on his throws, but for the most part, he impressed me at his Pro Day with his ability to take a snap, drop back, and deliver an accurate, easily catchable ball for the receiver.

I don’t put too much stock into his Combine performance. All he proved at his Combine is that he isn’t very good at developing chemistry with receivers he’s never met before. Some guys can, but it doesn’t really matter. He’s never going to be in a situation like that in the NFL at all. If he had problems at his Pro Day following his Combine, I would have been worried, but he didn’t.

His “character concerns” are blown a bit out of proportion. He got arrested for stealing a laptop at Florida and was eventually kicked out for academic reasons. Then there was the whole “dadgate” scandal where his dad, allegedly without Newton knowing, tried to sell Newton off to the highest bidder when it came time for him to choose a new school. I think to say he is definitely going to bust in the NFL for those reasons is absurd.

Newton has great intangibles and leadership qualities. He doesn’t appear to be the sharpest tool in the shed off the field, but he wins and his teammates can’t say enough about him. First he won a championship in his community college and then he came to Auburn and won one in his only season there. Auburn was not even supposed to come close to competing for a National Championship this year. They weren’t exactly stacked with offensive talent, but he still led them to an undefeated record and a National Championship. Winning in community college isn’t that impressive, but at the same time, it doesn’t hurt and it’s a nice little resume padder for Newton.

Lack of experience is another issue with Newton. Newton has only started 14 games in his college career, 2 less than Mark Sanchez, who currently holds the record for least NCAA starts for a quarterback drafted in the first round. 3^rd place on that list, Alex Smith with 22.

It’s clear, given his lack of experience, and the type of offense he came out of, that this guy is a project. This draft is full of projects and if I was drafting early in the first round, I’d feel fine with passing on one project in Newton for a different project in the 2^nd round, a guy like Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, or Colin Kaepernick.

Normally, I say take a quarterback in the first if you need one, because 2^nd round quarterbacks rarely pan out, but that’s only the case when said quarterback has a first round grade. Newton has a late first round grade in my book and I don’t think taking him, or any quarterback this year, in the top 10 is a smart idea. It really does suck to need a quarterback this year.

Newton would be best off somewhere where he wouldn’t be forced into too much action in 2011. He’s already raw and inexperienced and the amount of time he would have to work out this offseason could be cut short by a lockout.

Unfortunately, of all the teams that need quarterbacks and are looking at quarterbacks, the Bills might be the only ones who have a quarterback on their roster they be comfortable throwing out there in 2011. Add the Dolphins with Chad Henne to that list, but I doubt Newton lasts to 15.

Newton probably won’t even fall out of the top 3. The Bills really seem to like him. He’s a perfect fit for them, as they have Fitzpatrick for 2011 and can afford to ease Newton into action. He fits their scheme very well and has the arm strength necessary to survive in windy Buffalo in the winter. They are desperate for a face of the franchise and a franchise quarterback to carry them to the playoffs for the first time in a really, really long time. He, could, of course, also go #1 to the Panthers.

NFL Comparison: Daunte Culpepper (not a perfect comparison, but I had to put something here, and this is close enough)