Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints re-sign RB Mark Ingram

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Saints, Uncategorized

Mark Ingram rushed for 964 yards and 9 touchdowns on 226 carries (4.27 YPC) is 2014, but he’s a one year wonder who rushed for 1462 yards and 11 touchdowns on 356 carries (4.11 YPC) in his first 3 seasons combined, after the Saints drafted him in the 1st round in 2011. On top of that, his injury history is concern (14 games missed in 4 seasons) and he doesn’t contribute as a pass catcher (53 catches in 4 seasons). The Saints aren’t breaking the bank for Ingram on this 4-year, 16 million dollar deal, but this is still a fairly significant chunk of change in a league where the running back position is as devalued as it’s ever been. On top of that, the Saints have arguably the worst cap situation in the NFL and probably would have been better off letting Ingram walk and using the younger, cheaper Khiry Robinson in tandem with a rookie in 2015. I don’t hate the move, but it’s not one I would have made.

Grade: C+

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Houston Texans re-sign CB Kareem Jackson

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

Kareem Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback in 2014 and he’s not a one year wonder, because he graded out 12th among cornerbacks in 2012 as well. However, he’s graded out below average in his other 3 seasons in the NFL, including each of his first two seasons after the Texans drafted him in the first round in 2010. There’s two ways to look at this. One is to see him as an inconsistent player. The other is to see him as someone who got off to a slow start in his career, but has generally been good since then.

This deal, 34 million over 4 years, with 20 million guaranteed is about what I expected him to get this off-season, but, as I said in the Texans’ off-season preview, any deal he was going to be given this off-season was going to be a risky move. I stand by that and I would not have guaranteed him that much money. I understand why the Texans made this move and the contract wasn’t completely inappropriate or anything, but I don’t love the move because of his past inconsistencies.

Grade: B-

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Denver Broncos 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Offensive Tackle

Ryan Clady missed essentially the whole 2013 season with a foot injury, but Chris Clark played well in Ryan Clady’s absence in 2013 and the Broncos were very excited about their offensive line with Clady returning in 2014. They moved Clark to right tackle and Orlando Franklin inside to left guard, where he would replace the overrated Zane Beadles, who signed in Jacksonville. However, the only player who really worked out was Franklin, who played well in his first season at left guard. Clady graded out slightly below average in his first season back. He’ll be given another chance in 2015, but the Broncos need right tackle help. Chris Clark graded out 52nd out of 84 eligible before being benched. Louis Vasquez moved from right guard to right tackle and played alright, but he’s one of the league’s best guards so they should keep him there long-term. Finding a new right tackle who could possibly play left tackle in 2016 and beyond should be a priority of their off-season and somewhere they could go in the first round.

Tight End

Julius Thomas and Virgil Green were #1 and #2 on the Broncos in snaps played by tight ends, but both are free agents this off-season. Green could easily be back, but he’s only a blocking tight end. Julius Thomas has been their primary pass catching tight end over the past 2 seasons, but he’s not expected to be back as a free agent. Finding a pass catching replacement will be a need this off-season, assuming he does, in fact, leave.

Defensive Tackle

The Broncos will be moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. They have good personnel for it. DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller will play outside linebacker. Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and Sylvester Williams will rotate at defensive end. Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan will be the middle linebackers. Their only hole is nose tackle. Re-signing Terrance Knighton would fill that hole, but it sounds like he’s going to chase the money and go elsewhere. He probably wants to play in a 4-3 that would give him more pass rush opportunities anyway. Finding a true nose tackle will be on the Broncos’ list this off-season.

Center

Manny Ramirez struggled last season at both center and right guard. If he’s back as a starter at center next season, it will be at a position where he graded out 28th out of 41 eligible in 2014 in 8 starts. He’s also going into his age 33 season. They should try to find an upgrade. He could also be a cap casualty, a move that would save them 3 million in cash and cap space in 2015. Will Montgomery played well at center in his absence last season, but he’s a free agent and he’s also aging, going into his age 32 season.

Safety

Rahim Moore is a free agent. With the Broncos having already committed significant money to Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and TJ Ward in their secondary, it’s widely assumed they won’t outbid the highest bidders on the open market and that Moore will not be back in Denver. They’ll need to find a replacement safety in that case.

Guard

As I mentioned earlier, I expect the Broncos to move Louis Vasquez back to right guard in 2015, not because he was bad at right tackle, but because he’s so much better at right guard. However, the Broncos will still have a problem at guard if left guard Orlando Franklin leaves as a free agent, which he could easily do.

Wide Receiver

Wes Welker is not expected back as a free agent, going into his age 34 season, coming off of a down season thanks to age and injury. 2014 2nd round pick Cody Latimer will play a bigger role in his absence, with Emmanuel Sanders picking up more snaps in the slot. The bigger issue would be if, for whatever reason, the Broncos don’t bring back Demaryius Thomas, as they’d have to find some way to replace him. He’s widely expected to be franchise tagged though so that almost definitely won’t be an issue. Thomas, Sanders, and Latimer are expected to be their top-3 wide receivers in 2015.

Key Free Agents

WR Demaryius Thomas

Demaryius Thomas has put up absurd numbers over the past 3 seasons, playing all 48 games, catching 297 passes for 4483 yards and 35 touchdowns. Playing with Peyton Manning at quarterback and being a target monster has definitely helped him, but he’s graded out 2nd, 5th, and 5th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in his own right in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively. No other wide receiver has graded out in the top-5 in all 3 of those seasons. The 2010 1st round pick was also productive with Tim Tebow in 2011, as he had 35 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs. That’s 80 catches for 1703 yards and 9 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games. Along with Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson, you can make a case for him as the best wide receiver in football. He’s widely expected to be franchise tagged so he’ll be back in 2015. He’s also a candidate for a massive long-term deal.

DT Terrance Knighton

Knighton was a 3rd round pick by the Jaguars in 2009. He started 49 games in 4 seasons with the Jaguars, but ended up grading out slightly below average in all 4 seasons. Knighton signed a 2-year, 4.5 million dollar deal with the Broncos in his first trip to free agency two off-seasons ago, a move that paid off in a big way for the Broncos. Knighton proved to be a late bloomer, grading out 9th in 2013 and proving himself again in 2014, grading out 12th. The 6-3 330 pounder is a fierce run stopper and can rush the passer as well. His 2nd trip to the open market should be much more lucrative than his first and he’s expected to be priced out of the Broncos’ budget. He’ll probably want to stay in a 4-3 where he can get more pass rush opportunities anyway and the Broncos are moving to a 3-4 and need more of a true nose tackle. A reunion with Jack Del Rio in Oakland makes a lot of sense. The Raiders have a ton of cap space and a huge need at defensive tackle and Knighton has played his entire career with Del Rio, first when he was Jacksonville’s head coach and then when he was Denver’s defensive coordinator. Del Rio is now the head coach in Oakland.

TE Julius Thomas

Julius Thomas played 50 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the league, catching 1 pass, after the incredibly athletic former basketball player was drafted in the 4th round in 2011. He broke out in 2013, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he was limited by injuries in 2014, catching 43 passes for 489 yards and 12 touchdowns in 13 games. Thomas is a poor run blocker, has never played all 16 games in a season, and a lot of his passing game production was the result of getting to play with Peyton Manning. He’s a candidate to be overpaid on the open market this off-season.

G Orlando Franklin

Orlando Franklin has started 63 games since the Broncos drafted him in the 2nd round in 2011, 47 at right tackle from 2011-2013 and 16 at left guard last season. His versatility will serve him well on the open market, as will his abilities, as he’s graded out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, 12th among offensive tackles in 2012, 17th among offensive tackles in 2013, and 13th among guards in 2014. He should make upwards of 6+ million dollars on his next deal. Zane Beadles, another former Bronco offensive lineman, got 5-year, 30 million from the Jaguars last off-season. I think Franklin is a better player and that deal will be a floor for what he’ll get this off-season.

S Rahim Moore

Rahim Moore struggled as a rookie, but he had a fantastic 2012 season (the gaffe in the playoff loss to Baltimore aside), grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked safety. He still looked like one of the league’s better young safeties going into his 3rd year in the league in 2013, but he was only a league average starting safety that year before going down for the season with a frightening, rare injury that almost cost him his leg and his life. Moore returned in 2014, but was once again only an average starter. It’s obviously great that Moore has been able to resume his life and his career, but he goes to the open market as only a league average starter. He’ll make a good amount of money in a weak safety market though.

C Will Montgomery

With the Redskins, Montgomery graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked center in 2011, 5th in 2012, and 15th in 2013. However, he was still released by the Redskins last off-season with a new regime coming in with a new blocking scheme and he only got a cheap, 1-year deal from the Broncos. Montgomery made 8 starts down the stretch for the Broncos and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked center. He’s going into his age 32 season and he’s not a good fit for a power blocking scheme, but he deserves to be a starter somewhere in the NFL in 2015. A return to Denver could make sense as Gary Kubiak is a Mike Shanahan disciple and Montgomery had his best years under Shanahan in Washington.

TE Virgil Green

Green, a 2011 5th round pick, has played 1127 snaps in the last 4 seasons combined, serving as a valuable run blocking tight end, grading out above average as a run blocker in all 4 seasons. However, he’s graded out below average in 3 of those 4 seasons in pass catching grade, totaling 23 catches for 206 yards and a touchdown. He’ll come cheap this off-season and could easily return to the Broncos as a blocking specialist.

WR Wes Welker

Once again, the Patriots cut ties with a player at the perfect time. Letting Welker go looked like a mistake in 2013, when the Broncos were breaking records and beat the Patriots easily in the AFC Championship, but that was largely because of Peyton Manning’s huge season, Julius Thomas’ breakout year, and the loss of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez by the Patriots. Obviously, that script flipped in 2014. Overall, over the course of his 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, Welker caught 122 passes for 1242 yards and 12 touchdowns, missing 5 games with injury. His replacement in New England, Julian Edelman, had 197 catches for 2028 yards and 10 touchdowns over that time period. Statistically, Welker had the worst season of his career since 2005 last season, catching 49 passes for 464 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now he hits free agency, going into his age 34 season, with a serious concussion history, and coming off an awful season and the Broncos have already said they won’t be bringing him back. If he decides to keep playing, it’ll be on a cheap, one-year deal and he could have to wait a while. Retirement, either unforced or forced, is another possibility.

Cap Casualty Candidates

C Manny Ramirez

Ramirez struggled at both guard and center last season, including 28th out of 41 eligible centers in 8 starts. He’s been better in the past, but he’s going into his age 33 season. If the Broncos aren’t planning on bringing him back as a starter at any position, they’ll probably cut him and save 3 million in cash and cap space, which will be very valuable, given how many free agents they have to either lock up or replace.

OT Ryan Clady

Clady will probably be back, but moving on from him wouldn’t be a terrible move. He missed 14 games with a foot injury in 2013 and wasn’t the same in 2014, grading out below average. The Broncos can save 10 million in cash and 8.8 million on the cap by letting him go. He’s a good fit for new Head Coach Gary Kubiak’s blocking zone scheme, so, more likely, he’ll be given a chance to bounce back in 2015 and cut before 2016 if he struggles again.

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Dallas Cowboys re-sign OT Doug Free

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Free was going to be a risky signing anywhere he went, as he’s going into his age 31 season and he struggled mightily in 2011 and 2012, to the point where he was briefly benched down the stretch in 2012. He graded out 51st out of 76 eligible in 2011 and 68th out of 80 eligible in 2012. However, those two seasons were sandwiched in between 4 seasons in which he graded out above average, including 20th in 2013 and 21st in 2014. The 8-year veteran has made 83 starts for the Cowboys over the past 6 seasons and has generally played well. This 3-year, 15 million dollar deal also doesn’t have any guaranteed money after the first year, in which he’ll be guaranteed 6 million, so it’s fairly low risk. This is a good value for Free.

Grade: A-

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Houston Texans re-sign OT Derek Newton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Texans, Uncategorized

If Newton plays like he did last season, he’s worth this deal, which will pay him 26.5 million over 5 years and essentially guarantees him 13.5 million over 2 years (only 10 million is actually guaranteed, but they’re unlikely to cut him after one year with guaranteed money still owed in 2016). In 2014, Newton graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked offensive tackle, grading out below average in pass protection, but excelling in the run game, grading out 4th at that aspect in 2015.

This issue, in addition to his struggles in pass protection, is the 2011 7th round pick is a one-year wonder. Newton has started 46 games over the past 3 seasons, but he was horrible in both 2012 and 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus 64th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible in 2012 and 72nd out of 76 eligible in 2013. Given that, this is a very risky deal, but it could be worth it as Newton was an important part of this line in 2014.

Grade: C+

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Dallas Cowboys 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive Tackle

Nick Hayden and Henry Melton played 585 and 433 snaps respectively at defensive tackle last season, but both might not be back in 2015. Hayden is a free agent and should not be welcomed back as a starter, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked defensive tackle in 2014 and their 2nd worst in 2013. Melton was significantly better, grading out 14th at his position in 2014, but he’s had recurring knee problems and the Cowboys are not expected to pick up his 3-year, 24 million dollar option this off-season. He could be back on a cheaper deal, but as it currently stands, the Cowboys need to add at least one, if not two new defensive tackles to the mix to go with budding young star Tyrone Crawford, who graded out 13th at the position on 536 snaps in 2014.

Running Back

DeMarco Murray was such a big part of their offense in 2014 with 392 carries, but the Cowboys only offered him a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal before free agency so it sounds like Murray will test the open market and likely chase the money. Their depth behind him is less than ideal as Lance Dunbar, Joseph Randle, and Ryan Williams have 80, 105, and 58 career carries respectively. They’ll need to find a replacement for Murray in the likely event he leaves. Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley will both be options 27th overall.

Outside Linebacker

Justin Durant, Bruce Carter, and Rolando McClain combined to make 27 starts at linebacker for the Cowboys in 2014 and all three are free agents. Anthony Hitchens, who played 541 snaps and made 8 starts, returns, but he struggled mightily as a 4th round rookie, grading out 35th out of 40 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers, including 40th in coverage grade. He shouldn’t be anything more than a 3rd linebacker going forward. Sean Lee will be back in 2015 as well, moving to outside linebacker, but he missed all of the 2014 season with a torn ACL. One of the most injury prone players in the NFL, Lee has missed 31 games in 3 seasons and can’t be trusted to stay healthy going forward. They’ll need to sign someone else at the outside linebacker position.

Defensive End

Jeremy Mincey did a solid job as a starting defensive end for the Cowboys in 2014, while DeMarcus Lawrence flashed in limited action as a 2nd round rookie and should be ready for a bigger role in 2015. However, with both George Selvie and Anthony Spencer set to hit free agency, they’ll need to add depth if they aren’t able to re-sign one or both of them. Lawrence is still unproven, while Mincey is going into his age 32 season and was cut mid-season by the Jaguars as recently as 2013.

Middle Linebacker

I mentioned above that Rolando McClain is a free agent this off-season. The Cowboys are expecting him back as they’ve moved Sean Lee to outside linebacker, but if he doesn’t re-sign, they’ll need a replacement. Lee could move back to the middle, but he’s incredibly injury prone and that would leave a huge hole at outside linebacker. Even if McClain returns, there’s no guarantee he can stay out of trouble, given his past. Depth needs to be added here at the very least.

Cornerback

Brandon Carr, Orlando Scandrick, and Sterling Moore were the Cowboys’ top 3 cornerbacks in 2014 in snaps played. Scandrick and Moore graded out 10th and 22nd respectively among cornerbacks, but Carr graded out 90th out of 108 eligible and Moore is a free agent this off-season. Carr is a cap casualty candidate, while Moore might not be back. Morris Claiborne will be back from injury in 2014, but he’s coming off of a torn patellar tendon and hadn’t shown much in 3 years before that, since being drafted 6th overall in 2015. Help could be needed at the position.

Offensive Tackle

Doug Free played well at right tackle last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked offensive tackle, while reserve Jeremy Parnell played very well in 5 starts when Free was hurt, grading out 20th overall at his position on just 388 snaps. However, both those players are free agents so they’ll need to re-sign one of them or find a replacement. If I were them, I’d go with Parnell, who is younger (age 28 vs. age 31) and will likely come cheaper.

Wide Receiver

If, for whatever reason, the Cowboys don’t bring back Dez Bryant in 2015, they’ll need to replace him somehow.

Key Free Agents

WR Dez Bryant

Dez Bryant has always been productive, with 381 career catches for 5424 yards and 56 touchdowns in 75 career games in 5 seasons, since being drafted in the first round in 2010. He’s been especially good over the past 3 seasons, as he’s had 3 straight seasons of at least 80 catches for 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns. He hasn’t missed a game in those 3 seasons and has caught 273 passes for 3935 yards and 41 touchdowns in that time period, which are video game numbers. However, 2014 was easily his best season. After grading out 39th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2010, 10th in 2011, 52nd in 2012, 27th in 2013, Bryant graded out 2nd in 2014. He’ll almost certainly be given the franchise tag and cost a boatload to re-sign long-term. The Cowboys seem prepared to meet his demands. They better hope Bryant doesn’t regress or let himself go once he’s gotten his boatloads. Drops have been a serious issue for him in the past and he’s always been a target monster so he hasn’t always been the most efficient player.

RB DeMarco Murray

The Cowboys tried a very interesting approach with DeMarco Murray in 2014. Knowing he likely wouldn’t be back as a free agent at the end of the season, the Cowboys decided to ride DeMarco Murray into the ground, giving him 392 carries and not caring if it destroyed his body long-term. The results were very good as the Cowboys went 12-4 and won a playoff game on the back of Murray and his 1825 rushing yards. However, he’s a very risky signing this off-season for a variety of reasons, especially in a league where running backs are getting decreasingly valuable every year. For one, since 1988, only 4 of 26 running backs who led the league in carries surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. Those 26 backs averaged 365 carries per season, rushed for 1612 yards, and scored 14 touchdowns in the season they led the league in carries. The following season, they averaged 262 carries per season, rushed for 1053 yards, and scored 8 touchdowns. Murray already saw his YPC drop from 5.14 in the first 8 games of the season to 4.23 in the final 8. There’s a reason backs are rarely given more than 350 carries, as teams don’t want to ruin that player for the following season. The Cowboys knew Murray wasn’t coming back in 2015 though so they didn’t care. They offered him a mere 4-year, 16 million dollar deal this off-season. Murray has an injury history dating back to his collegiate days too. He made it through all 16 games in 2014 (not without a broken hand), but he missed 11 games in first 3 seasons and fell to the 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft because of injury concerns. Even if Murray stays healthy in 2015, he’s highly unlikely to even come within 50 carries of his 2014 total, a problem as his 4.71 YPC in 2014 was good, but not outstanding or anything. He got to 1800 yards on volume largely. He also won’t be able to bring the Cowboys’ offensive line to his next destination so his efficiency should go down too. The Cowboys were Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked team in run blocking grade. Murray should have a huge buyer beware stamp on his head.

MLB Rolando McClain

Rolando McClain has a crazy story. Drafted 8th overall in 2010 by the Raiders, McClain came into the league with a ton of potential. McClain showed that potential early in his career, grading out above average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL, including 14th ranked in 2010 and 11th ranked in 2012. However, he was kicked off the Raiders in the middle of his strong 2012 season because of issues with the coaching staff and then, after briefly resurfacing in Baltimore, was out of football entirely in 2013. He’s been arrested 3 times already since he’s been in the NFL. However, the Cowboys took a shot on him in 2014 and that talent was still there after all that, as he graded out 8th among middle linebackers in 2014, serving as a savior on the Dallas defense. McClain is obviously going to be a risky guy to pay on the open market, but he’s only going into his age 26 season and he’s plenty talented so someone will give him a big deal with minimal guaranteed money. Dallas would welcome him back.

OT Doug Free

Free has been with the Cowboys since they drafted him in the 4th round in 2007, 8 years ago. He played just 17 snaps in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, but jumped into the starting lineup for 8 starts in 2009 and graded out 30th among offensive tackles. He followed that up by starting 16 games in 2010, grading out 5th among offensive tackles, and getting a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal out of it. That contract didn’t start great though, as he graded out below average in each of the first 2 seasons of the deal, including 68th out of 80 eligible in 2012. Things got so bad he moved to left tackle to right tackle to the bench by the end of 2012. Rather than cutting him the following off-season, the Cowboys agreed to a reduced salary in 2013 and it paid off. Free graded out 20th in 2013 and 21st in 2014. He’s going into his age 31 season, so he won’t get a long-term deal really, but he should be someone’s starting right tackle next season and he should get paid reasonably well.

OT Jeremy Pernell

Pernell has a chance to be this off-season’s Anthony Collins, an inexperienced offensive linemen who has flashed when given a chance that gets a significant amount of money as a starter on the open market. Pernell was a 2009 undrafted free agent coming into this season that had played 294 snaps in 5 seasons in the NFL coming into 2014, but he ended up playing 388 snaps, making 5 starts, and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked offensive tackle in 2014. No one played fewer snaps and graded out better than him. He won’t quite get the 5-year, 30 million dollar deal Collins got last off-season, as his history isn’t quite as clean as Collins’ was, but Pernell could easily be making starter’s money to start somewhere next season. That somewhere could be Dallas if they decide he’s a younger, cheaper version of Doug Free.

DE George Selvie

George Selvie played just 662 snaps in the first 3 seasons of his career combined from 2010-2012, after being drafted in the 7th round, but he’s found a starting job in Dallas over the past 2 seasons, making 29 starts over that time period. However, with Jeremy Mincey locked in as one starter and DeMarcus Lawrence likely moving into the starting lineup in his 2nd season in the league in 2015, the Cowboys might not have a starting job for Selvie in 2015. Given that he graded out slightly below average in each of the last 2 seasons, he might be better off as a 3rd rotational defensive end. He’s a borderline starter wherever he goes and shouldn’t break anyone’s bank.

DE Anthony Spencer

Anthony Spencer, at one point, was given the franchise tag in back to back seasons and was one of the best 3-4 outside linebackers in the game. From 2007-2012, Anthony Spencer, a first round pick in 2007, was a top-11 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus in all 6 seasons, including 4 as an every down starter and maxing out at #1 overall in 2012. After playing so well on the franchise tag the first time in 2012, he was tagged again in 2013, but it didn’t go so well as he played just 1 game thanks to a serious knee injury that required microfracture surgery. Spencer was back for 13 games in 2014, but he played just 384 snaps, though he did grade out slightly above average. Going into his age 31 season, it’s very possible he’ll never be the same player again, but he’ll be another year removed from the injury in 2015 and he’s a nice buy low option for a team with a pass rush need on a tight budget. Pittsburgh comes to mind and a return to Dallas is also an option. He’s probably a better fit for his natural 3-4 system, but he played in a 4-3 in college and in the past 2 seasons in limited action in Dallas.

OLB Justin Durant

Justin Durant was drafted in the 2nd round in 2007 and has quietly had a very solid career, grading out above average in 7 of the 8 seasons he’s been in the NFL. However, he’s averaged just 585 snaps per season, often playing as purely a two-down run stopper, a role he excels in. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s played just a combined 538 snaps and he’s going into his age 30 season, coming off a torn biceps injury. He’ll come cheap this off-season, but he still can play a role for a team next season.

OLB Bruce Carter

The Cowboys drafted Bruce Carter in the 2nd round in 2011 despite the fact that he tore his ACL late in his final collegiate season at North Carolina. Carter was limited to 41 snaps as a rookie, but he looked on his way to a breakout 2nd season before a serious arm injury cut his season short. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked middle linebacker on 625 snaps and 11 starts. Moving back to his natural position of 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013, many expected him to have a great season, but he did the opposite, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 35 eligible. In 2014, he was limited to 8 starts in 13 games and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker out of 40 eligible. The potential he once appeared to have seems to have dissipated and he heads into free agency as a borderline starting outside linebacker and an injury prone one at that, with 15 missed games in 4 seasons. His best role might be as a two-down run stopping 4-3 outside linebacker. A move back to middle linebacker is also an intriguing option.

DT Nick Hayden

Hayden has made 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, but he’s been a major liability on the field, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked defensive tackle in 2013 and their worst ranked defensive tackle in 2014. This should come as no surprise considering he was out of the league entirely in 2012 and played just 33 snaps in 2011. Wherever he ends up next, he should not be a starter. I’m not even sure he should be in the league. He’s started out of necessity for the Cowboys over the past 2 seasons and they should focus this off-season on finding an upgrade.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DT Henry Melton

Henry Melton was Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 6th ranked in 2012, but he was limited to 125 snaps in 3 games in 2013 by a torn ACL. As he was playing on the franchise tag in 2013, he hit free agency last off-season and signed with the Cowboys. The Cowboys only paid 2.25 million plus incentives for Melton in 2014, but he has a 3-year, 24 million dollar option that the Cowboys have to make a decision on this off-season. He wouldn’t technically be a cap casualty, but I expect the Cowboys to decide against bringing him back for the rest of his contract. Melton played well when on the field in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked defensive tackle, but he had recurring knee problems and played just 433 snaps. There’s still a chance the Cowboys bring him back on a renegotiated deal. He’s had the best years of his career under Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, who was previously in Chicago, he’s still relatively young (going into his age 29 season), he played well last season, and he could bounce back in his 2nd year since the injury.

CB Brandon Carr

Brandon Carr signed a 5-year, 50.1 million dollar deal three off-seasons ago. However, he’s only graded out 52nd, 58th, and 90th among cornerbacks in 2012, 2013, and 2014, showing middling play at best and not living up to his contract whatsoever. The Cowboys would only save 566K on the cap by letting Carr go, as they’ve kicked a lot of money forward on his contract already, but they could make him a post-June 1st cut and save more on this year’s cap at the expense of next season’s, or agree to a pay cut with him. Anything would be better than paying him another 8.5 million in 2015.

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Washington Redskins re-sign TE Niles Paul

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Niles Paul was a 5th round pick of the Redskins’ in 2011 and turning the big bodied wide receiver into a pass catching tight end was always kind of a pet project of Mike Shanahan’s. Ironically, Paul didn’t really produce until this year, when Jay Gruden came in. Paul caught 39 passes for 507 yards and a touchdown on 280 routes run, largely in the absence of oft injured tight end Jordan Reed. The 6-1 241 pounder predictably struggles as a run blocker (62nd out of 67 eligible in that aspect this season), but has a role in the league as a #2 move tight end.

This 3-year, 10 million dollar deal keeps him off the open market where he would have joined a weak tight end market. With Charles Clay getting transition tagged by the Dolphins, you could make a case that Paul was the 3rd best tight end on the open market after Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron. Given that, this deal makes sense financially, even if it is a slight overpay for a guy who doesn’t block well enough to be an every down tight end. However, tight end wasn’t really a need for the Redskins. As injury prone as Jordan Reed is, he’s still a very solid, young tight end overall when healthy and it would have made more sense for the Redskins to save this money for more help defensively, but I don’t hate the move.

Grade: B-

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Seattle Seahawks extend RB Marshawn Lynch

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Going into the season, there was talk the Seahawks would not be bringing Lynch back in 2015, owed a non-guaranteed 7 million dollars in a contract year, with other players to lock up long-term. Instead, Lynch ended up getting a raise and an extension. This deal is worth 31 million over 3 years with 13 million guaranteed in the first year, including a 7.5 million dollar signing bonus, a raise of 5 million. Perhaps it’s their way of saying sorry for not giving him the way on the 1-yard line at the end of the Super Bowl.

More likely, it’s their reward for Lynch once again having a fantastic season. Lynch rushed for 1310 yards and 13 touchdowns on 280 carries, an average of 4.68 YPC. Over the past 4 seasons, Lynch has missed 1 game and rushed for 5357 yards and 48 touchdowns on 1181 carries, an average of 4.54 YPC and he’s been even better than his numbers suggest as he’s run behind a weak offensive line. He’s graded out 48th, 5th, 4th, and 2nd on Pro Football Focus in those 4 seasons respectively and his 273 broken tackles on carries lead the NFL over that time period. He’s also the only running back in the NFL to grade out in the top-5 among running backs on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons. There’s a case to be made that he’s been the best running back in football over the past 3 seasons, despite what guys like Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, and LeVeon Bell have done over single seasons over the past 3 years.

The issue still remains that he’s going into his age 29 season with 2033 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. That suggests that Lynch has about 2, maybe 3 good years left in the tank and that possibly his best days are behind him. 12 million dollars is a lot to commit to a running back for one year in today’s NFL, especially one with as much tread on his tires as Lynch has, no matter how good that running back is. I definitely understand why the Seahawks made this move, but I can’t say I love it.

Grade: B-

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Kansas City Chiefs re-sign MLB Josh Mauga

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Josh Mauga was a 2009 undrafted free agent who played 235 snaps from 2009-2013 and was out of the league entirely in 2013, but he ended up making the Chiefs’ 53 man roster and starting 15 games in place of an injured Derrick Johnson. Mauga predictably struggled through, grading out 54th out of 60 eligible. Johnson will be back in 2015, but Mauga could still have a role for the Chiefs as the starting middle linebacker next to Johnson as James-Michael Johnson struggled even more than Mauga did last season.

If history is any indication, that could be a two-down role next to Derrick Johnson in 2015, though the Chiefs’ potential lack of safety depth might prevent them from using 3 safeties inside of 2 linebackers in sub packages like they like to do. Mauga’s new deal pays him 8 million over 3 years. It’s not an egregious overpayment or anything, especially for a cap strapped team, and it fits his likely 2015 role, but Mauga wasn’t worth too much more than the minimum, given his history and his 2014 play.

Grade: C

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Chicago Bears trade WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Trade for Jets: The Jets surrendered a 5th round pick for Brandon Marshall in this deal, much like they surrendered a 6th round pick mid-season to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. Marshall is older than Harvin, going into his age 31 season, but I think this is a much better deal than the Harvin deal. Related, this deal allowed the Jets to release Percy Harvin and avoid paying him a 10.5 million dollar salary in 2015. All in all, the Jets paid 7.2 million and a 6th round pick for Harvin and got 29 catches, 20 kickoff returns, and 22 carries in a lost season, overall a head-scratching move by the Jets.

Back to Marshall, he’s coming off of a down season, catching 61 passes for 721 yards and 8 touchdowns. The catches and yards were both his lowest since his rookie year. He was limited by an ankle injury all season and missed the final 3 games of the season after suffering a collapsed lung in a game. However, Marshall had missed a combined 4 games in his previous 7 seasons and, even going into his age 31 season, he should be able to bounce back for at least two more good seasons. In addition to being incredibly durable prior to 2014, he was also incredibly consistent, catching at least 80 passes for 1000 yards in 8 straight seasons, including 5 seasons of 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. Even with the down year last year, he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons, including 8th in 2012, and 1st in 2013. The 7.7 million they’ll pay him in 2015 is pretty reasonable for him and his 8.1 million dollar salary for 2016 is non-guaranteed.

Grade: A-

Trade for Bears: The Bears’ new regime seemed pretty determined to move on from Marshall over the past week so in that sense credit them for getting a 5th round pick for him. The question I have is why they were so willing to get rid of him. Sure, he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off a down year, but, as I illustrated above, he should be able to bounce back and his scheduled salary for 2015 wasn’t much. Marshall has been notorious for not always being liked by his coaches and teammates and suffers from borderline personality disorder so that might have played a role in his departure, but he’s still a good football player with good football left in him. This move leaves the Bears with not only a huge hole opposite Alshon Jeffery at wide receiver, but they also still need help at the #3 wide receiver spot as Marquess Wilson is still incredibly unproven, with 462 snaps played in 2 years since the Bears drafted him in the 7th round in 2013. I don’t understand this move by them.

Grade: C

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