Vikings

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

Aaron Rodgers is 23-12 ATS off of a loss in his career, as he typically responds well to adversity, but, now having lost 3 straight, public confidence in Rodgers is much lower than normal. This line has gone from favoring the Packers by a field goal in Minnesota to even, from the early line last week to now, a pretty significant line movement considering close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, but the public isn’t really on the Packers, as the action is pretty split.

Typically, I love fading significant line movements like that, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I too am having a hard time being confident in the Packers. I wasn’t too worried about the Packers after their first two losses, because they were on the road in tough places to win (Denver and Carolina), but last week they lost at home for the first time since the 2013 post-season and they did it as huge home favorites against a Detroit team that is one of the worst teams in the league. They still rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but their offense (XX) just simply isn’t the same without injured top receiver Jordy Nelson, who tore his ACL in the pre-season.

I ultimately do expect the Packers to turn it around and I do think last week’s loss was a fluke, but this is a tough spot for them to turn it around. The Vikings are a legitimate team, one that ranks 9th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, and the Packers are not the same team on the road. There’s definitely an argument to be made that we’re still getting some line value with the Vikings. They’ve faced a very easy schedule and the Packers are the toughest opponent they’ve faced this season, but neither team has beaten anyone better than Seattle or San Diego. The Packers also have to play again in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Fortunately, they’re not favored here, as favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game, but they’re a point away from being favored, so it’s worth bringing up. As much as I hate going against Rodgers off of a loss and as much as I hate not fading a significant line movement, I have to go with the Vikings for a no confidence pick this week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Minnesota PK

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week of play. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago, but now favors Oakland by 3, pretty significant, considering about 23.3% of games are decided by 3 or fewer points and 15.6% by exactly a field goal. The Raiders are a solid squad, ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Vikings rank higher, ranking 10th. On top of that, the Raiders are expected to be without talented center Rodney Hudson, while, on the other side, talented defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd is expected to return for the Vikings.

The Vikings have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (San Francisco, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis) and could be distracted with an upcoming home game against the Packers, which will be easily their biggest game to date. They are expected to be 3 point home underdogs and teams are 75-113 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 43-80 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs. The Vikings aren’t guaranteed to be home underdogs of that many, but the logic holds either way. This could be a look ahead game for the Vikings, while the Raiders face one of the worst teams in the league, the Detroit Lions, next week. It’s still tough to get excited about the Raiders, so this will be a no confidence pick, but they should be the right side. This game has a very good chance to be a field goal game though, so if the line moves to 3.5, I’d probably take the Vikings.

Oakland Raiders 20 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland -3

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized, Vikings

St. Louis Rams (4-3) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

The Vikings rank higher than the Rams in rate of moving the chains differential, 16th vs.23rd. However, I’m going with the Rams here this week on the road, for a few reasons. For one, the Vikings have had an easier schedule than the Rams, only playing one team that is .500 or better. The Rams, meanwhile, have faced 4, beating the Seahawks and the Cardinals, but losing to the Steelers and the Packers. The Rams also have fewer injuries, only missing defensive end Chris Long, while the Vikings are missing defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd and middle linebacker Eric Kendricks.

The Rams are also in a way better spot. While the Vikings go to Oakland next week, where they are expected to be 1.5 point underdogs, the Rams host the Bears, against whom they’re expected to be favored by 7.5 points. Teams are 166-94 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, teams are 28-48 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Vikings won by a field goal as road favorites in Chicago last week.

I’m not confident enough in the Rams to put money on them because this line has shifted from 3 to 1.5 in the past week, a bigger deal than people realize because close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal. In spite of that, the public is on the underdog, part of the reason why this line has dropped and we’ve lost line value. However, I do think the Rams should win this one outright. These are comparable football teams and the Rams are in a way better spot.

St. Louis Rams 16 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bears, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)

Minnesota is favored here by a point on the road in Chicago. That’s a pretty reasonable line. Minnesota ranks 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bears rank 26th. However, the Bears are at home, which obviously helps, and they’re finally at full strength, after having starters like Jay Cutler, wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, left tackle Jermon Bushrod, and safety Antrel Rolle miss significant line with injury early in the season. Meanwhile, the Vikings, who have stayed relatively healthy this season, are entering their 2nd straight game without key defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd.

I’m kind of hoping that the Vikings become underdogs by game time, but I have no idea if that’s going to happen. If they’re underdogs, it puts them in a way better spot than the Bears, because, while the Bears have to turn around and go to San Diego, where they’re expected to be underdogs of 4, the Vikings host the Rams next week, and are expected to be favored by 3. Underdogs are 166-94 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

Even if the Vikings stay favorites of a point, they’re still in a pretty good spot. Road favorites off of a road win are 42-30 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game.

That trend goes to 51-51 ATS if the Vikings were to become underdogs, but, combining this with the other aforementioned trend, the Vikings are in a better spot than the Bears either way this week. It makes sense if you think about it. The Vikings have an easier opponent on deck than the Bears do and are in their 2nd straight road game. That’s great for them. I feel confident enough to put money on them. This isn’t a higher confidence pick because of Floyd’s absence and all the public money on Minnesota, but the Vikings should be the right side.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -1

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Lions, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (3-2) at Detroit Lions (1-5)

Both of these two teams are missing key defensive players for this one. The Vikings will be without Sharrif Floyd, a 3rd year defensive tackle who was one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL in 2014 and who has continued that into this season. He’s played in the first 5 games, but will miss this one. On Detroit’s side, they’ll be without outside linebacker DeAndre Levy, who was one of the best linebackers in the NFL last season. The Lions are more used to being without him though, as he’s been limited to 17 nondescript snaps in one game by a hip injury thus far this season.

Despite that, the Lions don’t rank too much worse than the Vikings in rate of moving the chains differential, 27th to 20th. Both of these two teams have faced tough schedules (Detroit has faced San Diego, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle, Arizona and Chicago, while the Vikings have faced (San Francisco, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, and Kansas City) and I think the Vikings shouldn’t be favored here in Detroit, even if only by 2 points, especially since Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson is less than 100% likely to play with an illness. However, I can’t be confident in Detroit ahead of a London game next week. Teams are just 6-18 ATS all-time before a London game, as that provides a serious distraction. I’m still taking them, but this is my lowest confidence game of the season.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +2

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-2)

The Vikings hard a weird start to their season, losing 20-3 week 1 in San Francisco in a really late game, giving the lowly 49ers their only win of the season. However, a team seen as a sneaky playoff contender before the season started, Minnesota has lived up to expectations over the past few weeks, beating Detroit and San Diego by double digits and then only losing by a field goal in Denver. They do rank just 20th in rate of moving the chains differential through their first 4 games, but they’re still being dragged down by what should prove to be a very fluky week 1 game. They’re a solid team that will compete for a playoff spot.

Despite that, they’re just 4 point favorites here over a Kansas City team that ranks 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite losing Jamaal Charles for the season to a torn ACL last week. Charles was such a big part of the offense, putting up big yardage on the ground and through the air and really being the guy they ran the offense through, because their passing game is still limited. Chancandrick West and Knile Davis aren’t the type of guys who can do that and represent a huge dropoff in talent behind Charles.

They should struggle to run the ball for the rest of the season, especially with a weak offensive line. They’ll have to pass move often, which is not what they want to do. They have no passing game weapons behind wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce, Alex Smith is a limited quarterback, and the offensive line isn’t giving Smith much time. The Chiefs are 1-4, getting worse, and won’t be much of a threat to anyone going forward. They shouldn’t be only be 4 point road underdogs in Minnesota, especially with Minnesota having an easy game in Detroit next week, though I can’t quite bring myself to put money on this because Minnesota is a heavy public lean and I don’t have a real trend supporting the Vikings.

Update: This line has dropped to 3.5. I’ll bite.

Minnesota Vikings 21 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

The Broncos are one of seven 3-0 teams in the league right now, but they only rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, worst among undefeated teams. Their defense has been great, improving on a strong 2014 in their first season with Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator, but their offense ranks 25th in rate of moving the chains, as the offensive line has struggled mightily, CJ Anderson has looked slow, and Peyton Manning, while still capable, has looked every bit of 39 years old. The Vikings, meanwhile, are 2-1 and rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, after winning back-to-back home games against Detroit and San Diego.

Given that, this line at 6.5 might seem too high, but the Broncos are also in such a good spot that I’m actually going with the Broncos this week, especially without a huge public lean on Minnesota. The Broncos go to Oakland next week, so they don’t have any real distractions on the horizon. The Vikings don’t either, going into a bye, but the better team usually prevails and covers without a distraction on the horizon. The Broncos are projected to be 6.5 point favorites in Oakland next week. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again and teams are 64-43 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point favorites, and 27-12 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites since 2012. As long as this line is under a touchdown, the Broncos should be the right side, but I wouldn’t put money on it.

Denver Broncos 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -6.5

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

Not a lot of people are talking about the Chargers, but they have a good team. A borderline playoff team in 2013 and 2014, the Chargers’ secondary is significantly better than it was in 2013 thanks to the additions of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett, while their offense is significantly healthier than it was in 2014, when they led the league in offensive adjusted games lost to injury. They’re only 1-1, but they’ve played two playoff caliber opponents, Cincinnati and Detroit.

Minnesota has also played Detroit, but lost in embarrassing fashion week 1 in San Francisco. Both of these teams have beaten Detroit on their homefield, but San Diego’s victory was more impressive. The Chargers moved the chains at an 8.97% better rate than the Lions did in their victory, while Minnesota moved the chains at a 3.69% better rate than the Lions in their victory. On top of that, Minnesota was also playing a very injured Matt Stafford, which made their life easier. The Chargers have also done a much better job in that aspect overall on the season than the Vikings, as they rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Vikings rank 23rd.

I know it’s only been two games, but that was the case in 2014 as well, when the Chargers finished 13th and the Vikings finished 27th. The Vikings are an improved team from last year to this year, with Adrian Peterson back and Teddy Bridgewater going into his second year, but they’re very banged up on the offensive line and they’re still not as good as the Chargers, who are also improved from last season, thanks to players returning from injury. This line does give the Chargers the nod as being the better team, as it’s 2.5 in favor of Minnesota at home and not 3 and I certainly would prefer it at 3, but I still think we’re getting line value with the Chargers. This line should be around even.

The Chargers are also in a great spot, coming off of a close road loss to the Bengals. Teams are 117-81 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 197-200 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, as opposed to 282-395 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game.

In addition to being in a great spot because of their game last week, the Chargers are also in a great spot because their game next week, as they have no upcoming distractions, with only a home game against the irrelevant Browns on deck. Minnesota, meanwhile, has to go to Denver and play one of the toughest games of their season next week. Road underdogs are 104-61 ATS since 2008 before being home favorites when their opponent will next be a home favorite. I had a tough time picking my Pick of the Week this week and I weighed a few good options, but I ultimately settled on the Chargers. I like them a good amount here in Minnesota.

San Diego Chargers 24 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: San Diego -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (0-1)

I had both the Lions and the Vikings as 9-win playoff teams this season during my season previews and both teams lost on the road week 1. However, the Lions’ 33-28 loss in San Diego was not nearly as bad as the Vikings’ 20-3 loss in San Francisco. Detroit’s game was much closer and they also faced a much better opponent. The Vikings got dominated in rate of moving the chains by a 49er team that could still finish the season with 5 wins, after an 8-win season in 2014 and a rough off-season full of losses.

That’s one reason I’m way more concerned with the Vikings than the Lions. The second is that the Lions were the much better team last season so I wasn’t predicting that they’d take a leap like I did with the Vikings. I think that makes them a safer bet. The third reason is injury related. Part of the reason why the Lions’ loss in San Diego last week wasn’t surprising (in addition to the fact that they were playing a quality team on the road) is because the Lions were missing starting right guard Larry Warford, starting right tackle LaAdrian Waddle, and top defensive player DeAndre Levy with injury.

The Lions are unfortunately still likely to be without Levy in this one, but they get Waddle and Warford back, which will help this offense. The Vikings, meanwhile, lost two talented offensive lineman, center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt, for an extended period of time before the season even began and it showed as their offense couldn’t move the ball against the 49ers. They could easily continue to have trouble here against Detroit, even without Levy.

The Lions are also in a better spot, in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 117-79 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 197-200 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, as opposed to 278-392 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.10 points per game. I’m not putting money on Detroit unless this line moves up to 3 or, by some miracle, Levy (doubtful with a hip injury) plays, but the Lions should be the right side here.

Detroit Lions 23 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Detroit +2

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

To start the season, this week has 8 games that feature road favorites (and no game that features a line higher than a touchdown). Almost every single one of those 8 road favorites is heavily backed by the public.  I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated, as most people don’t understand that home vs. away is worth about 6 points on average.

Unfortunately, a lot of those road favorites are small road favorites over teams that they’re clearer better, so it’s so tempting to take all of the road favorites. I’m not afraid to do take a road favorite; in fact, my pick of the week is Miami -3.5 in Washington, but that’s fine because Miami is underrated and that’s just too low of a line. However, I didn’t want to pick all as the road favorites. That being said, I already picked a few home underdogs, Chicago +7 at home for Green Bay for a big play because that line was too high, St. Louis +4 at home for Seattle for a no confidence pick for a few minor reasons, and Buffalo +3 at home for Indianapolis for a no confidence pick as a tiebreaker in the toughest game of the week for me.

Teams like Philadelphia (projected for 10 wins) would seem to be an easy choice as mere 3 point favorites on the road over Atlanta (projected for 5 wins). The same is true with Carolina (8 wins) as 3.5 point favorites over Jacksonville (3 wins), Minnesota (9 wins) as 2.5 point favorites over San Francisco (4 wins), and Cincinnati (9 wins) as 3 point favorites over Oakland (3 wins). None of them will be confident plays for me, but I have to take the road favorite in all 4 of those games. San Francisco is simply not talented enough to be picked as mere 2.5 point home underdogs here against a good Minnesota team.

Minnesota Vikings 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2.5

Confidence: None

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