Vikings

Miami Dolphins trade WR Mike Wallace to the Minnesota Vikings

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, Uncategorized, Vikings

Trade for Dolphins: It’s no secret the Dolphins have been trying to get rid of Mike Wallace all off-season and the writing on the wall got put into dark ink when the Dolphins traded for Kenny Stills. Credit them for being able to trade him, rather than outright releasing him. That has two benefits. The obvious one is the compensation, even if it is just a swap of a 7th round pick for a 5th round pick. The other benefit is that the Dolphins get out of his 3 million dollar guarantee. If they had cut him, they would have had to pay 3 million of his 9.9 million dollar salary for 2015. By trading him, his whole salary goes to Minnesota. That boosts the cap savings of getting rid of him from 2.5 million to 5.5 million and he’ll be completely off of their cap for 2016. This was a great move by the Dolphins.

Trade for Vikings: I like this move for the Dolphins. I don’t get it for the Vikings. This move allows them to release Greg Jennings, a move that will save them 5 million on the cap and 9 million in cash, but they go from one overpaid receiver to another. There’s a reason why the Dolphins were trying to get rid of Wallace so badly. Wallace is a solid receiver, but his last 1000+ yard year was in 2011, also the last season he graded out above average.

In his final year in Pittsburgh in 2012, he held out long into the off-season, which caused him to have a horrible season. His 64/836/8 slash line wasn’t terrible, but he caught just 55.2% of his targets and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 91st ranked wide receiver out of 105 eligible. That didn’t stop the Dolphins from giving Wallace a 5-year, 60 million dollar deal and he predictably didn’t live up to it, grading out below average in both seasons, putting up slash lines of 73/930/5 and 67/862/10, and reportedly quitting on his team on multiple occasions. It’s possible this trade could serve as a wake-up call for him, but it’s not worth 9.9 million to find out. Even picks aside, they overpaid for Wallace.

Grade: C-

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Minnesota Vikings trade QB Matt Cassel to the Buffalo Bills

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bills, Uncategorized, Vikings

Trade for Buffalo: Cassel is hardly a good quarterback, but he still instantly becomes the best quarterback on the Bills’ roster. They had a desperate need at the quarterback position after veteran Kyle Orton retired, leaving them with 2013 1st round bust EJ Manuel. Aside from a disastrous 2012 season in Kansas City, Cassel has been solid in his career. In his career, he’s completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 96 touchdowns, and 70 interceptions.

In the last season he saw significant action, Cassel completed 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.11 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 28th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible, not terrible, which is really all the Bills are looking for at this point. Sure, Cassel is going into his age 33 season, coming off of a lost season with injury, and completed just 57.7% of his passes for an average of 5.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions before going down last season, but he’s still better than almost every quarterback available in free agency this off-season.

The price the Bills paid for Cassel wasn’t much, a 4.75 million dollar salary and cap number in 2015, a 2016 7th round pick, and a swap of a 2015 5th round pick for a 2015 6th round pick. It’s certainly better than the 6.25 million guaranteed the Browns gave Josh McCown, who the Bills were also interested in this off-season. It’s comparable to or better than giving this same kind of money to the likes of Mark Sanchez and Brian Hoyer in free agency. I don’t love the move for the Bills, but it’s kind of the move they had to make.

Grade: B

Trade for Minnesota: Minnesota comes out the winner here, though both sides should be happy with this deal. Cassel wasn’t worth 4.75 million to them given that Teddy Bridgewater, their 2014 1st round pick, broke out as their quarterback of the future in Cassel’s absence last season, completing 64.4% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. There’s a very good chance they were planning on making him a salary cap casualty so credit the Vikings for getting something for him and freeing up a good amount of cap space. The Vikings can find a backup for Bridgewater at less than half of Cassel’s salary.

Grade: A

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Minnesota Vikings 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Uncategorized, Vikings

Positions of Need

Guard

The Vikings need an upgrade over Charlie Johnson at left guard. He’s struggled there for 3 years. He was Pro Football Focus’ 61st ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2012, 52nd out of 81 eligible in 2013, and 56th out of 78 eligible in 2014. Prior to that, he was 53rd out of 76 eligible offensive tackles on the blindside in 2011. Going into his age 31 season, owed 2.5 million non-guaranteed, I don’t expect him back this off-season.

Offensive Tackle

Matt Kalil, the 4th overall pick in 2012, had a great rookie year, grading out 21st at his position. He slipped to 51st in 2013, but a knee injury was blamed as the culprit. I don’t know what happened in 2014 though, as he graded out 81st out of 84 eligible, allowing 12 sacks and committing 12 penalties. Going into his contract year, the Vikings have a huge decision to make on Kalil. Do you pick up his 5th year option? Do you let him go into his contract year? Do you leave him at left tackle? Do you move him to left guard? Even if they don’t move him, I expect them to add someone who could take his job this off-season. Drafting someone with the 11th overall pick who can play both guard and tackle makes a lot of sense.

Defensive End

Brian Robison has generally been a solid starter, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 52th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible in 2014. He’s going into his age 32 season in 2015 so it’s time to start looking at long-term help at the position opposite Everson Griffin. Griffin and Robison ranked 2nd and 5th in snaps played by 4-3 defensive ends last season, so their 3rd defensive end, Corey Wootton, only played 275 snaps and still managed to grade out 55th out of 59 eligible 4-3 defensive ends. He’s a free agent this off-season.

Wide Receiver

Two off-seasons ago, the Vikings committed to rebuilding their receiving corps, taking Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round and giving Greg Jennings a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal. Neither of those has really panned out. Patterson has managed 78 catches for 853 yards and 5 touchdowns combined in 2 seasons, while Jennings has a combined 127 catches for 1546 yards and 10 touchdowns. Patterson will get another chance in his 3rd season in the league in 2015, though maybe not as a starter after losing his starting job to Charles Johnson down the stretch. However, Jennings is owed 9 million non-guaranteed and the Vikings can save 5 million on the cap by cutting him. The Vikings like Johnson’s upside, but they need to add to the mix, especially if Jennings is let go.

Middle Linebacker

Middle linebacker was only a two-down position for the Vikings last season as Chad Greenway, Anthony Barr, and even reserve Gerald Hodges played most of the sub package snaps at linebacker last season. Because of that, it’s not that important of a positon. However, they could still need help at the position this off-season because Jasper Brinkley, the starter last season, is a free agent. Hodges could be an option to play in the middle linebacker next season, but Chad Greenway could be a cap casualty this off-season so Hodges might have to replace him there.

Running Back

There’s a good chance that Adrian Peterson is released by the Vikings this off-season, going into his age 30 season with 2054 career carries, coming off of a season in which he missed 15 games with suspension for child abuse. The Vikings like Jerrick McKinnon, their 3rd round pick in 2014. As a rookie, he rushed for 538 yards on 113 carries (4.76 YPC), while catching 27 passes for 135 yards. They’ll need some competition for him though, if they let Peterson go. Matt Asiata, is their other running back, and he has a career average of 3.53 YPC.

Key Free Agents

FB Jerome Felton

Jerome Felton has a 2.45 million dollar player option for 2015, but he’s expected to decline it and head into free agency. The reason behind this is underuse as the Vikings used way more one-back sets under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner in 2014. Felton played just 175 snaps, after playing 304 in 2013, and 402 in 2012. He still graded out above average (7th at his position) and, when used properly, he’s one of the best fullbacks in the NFL, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked fullback in both 2012 and 2013.

MLB Jasper Brinkley

Brinkey’s 2nd stint as the Vikings’ starting middle linebacker went better than the first. Brinkley was Pro Football Focus’ 50th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 eligible in 2012 and only played 210 snaps in Arizona in 2013 as a result. Brinkley was brought back by the Vikings last off-season and given another chance in the middle and fared better, grading out slightly above average. The reason for this is that he wasn’t an every down player and didn’t have to cover much. He did struggle in coverage when he was asked to do that, but it wasn’t often and he did well enough against the run to make up for it. He’s purely a two-down player, but should have a role wherever he goes.

DE Corey Wootton

Wootton was a 4th round pick in 2010 by the Bears and graded out below average in all 4 seasons in Chicago, playing both defensive end and defensive tackle. He got a cheap one-year deal to be a reserve in 2014 with the Vikings, but struggled mightily. He was Pro Football Focus’ 55th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible in 2014, despite playing just 275 snaps. No one played fewer snaps and graded out worse. He’ll have to settle for a minimum deal this off-season.

QB Christian Ponder

Ponder was a bust as the 12th overall pick in 2011. He made 36 starts in 4 seasons, but struggled mightily, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.30 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions. 2014 was his worst season as he entered the year as the 3rd quarterback behind Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Cassel and made just one start, completing 22 of 44 for 222 yards and 2 interceptions in a 42-10 loss in Green Bay. He’ll look for backup work this off-season and could have trouble finding it.

Cap Casualty Candidates

G Charlie Johnson

The Vikings really need an upgrade over Johnson at left guard and he’s not worth his 2.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2015. He was Pro Football Focus’ 61st ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2012, 52nd out of 81 eligible in 2013, and 56th out of 78 eligible in 2014. Prior to that, he was 53rd out of 76 eligible offensive tackles on the blindside in 2011. Going into his age 31 season in 2015, I don’t expect him to be back.

RB Adrian Peterson

Adrian Peterson is one of the best players in Vikings history, but all good things come to an end. Peterson’s 13 million dollar salary is non-guaranteed for 2015 and Peterson is going into his age 30 season with 2054 career carries. In today’s NFL, he’s simply not worth that kind of money, and that’s before you even get into the fact that he missed 15 games with suspension last season for child abuse. The Vikings have said they’d welcome him back, but, financially, it just might not make sense.

QB Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel isn’t necessarily not worth his non-guaranteed 4.75 million dollar salary, but he isn’t really needed by the Vikings the way they needed him last off-season, when they signed him to compete for the starting job with a rookie quarterback. That rookie quarterback turned out to be Teddy Bridgewater, who completed 64.4% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions after Cassel went down for the season with a foot injury. Bridgewater is the clear cut starter heading into 2015 so they don’t need to be paying top dollars for a backup quarterback. Even going into his age 33 season and coming off of a lost season with a foot injury, Cassel would draw interest as a backup on the open market. In his career, he’s completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 96 touchdowns, and 70 interceptions.

WR Greg Jennings

The Vikings signed Jennings to a 5-year, 45 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, expecting to get the guy who had 3 seasons of 1000 yards or more in Green Bay. However, Jennings hasn’t been able to come close to those numbers without Aaron Rodgers. He’s now going into his age 32 season and hasn’t had a 1000+ yard season since 2010. All of the guaranteed money on Jennings’ deal has been paid out and the Vikings can save 5 million on the cap immediately by cutting him, rather than paying him 9 million dollars in 2015.

OLB Chad Greenway

Greenway signed a 5-year, 40.6 million dollar deal after the 2010 season, but he hasn’t graded out above average since then. He’s been especially bad over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2013 and their 3rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2014. The Vikings can save 7.1 million in cash and cap space by cutting him this off-season, ahead of his age 32 contract year. Gerald Hodges showed well in limited action at outside linebacker last off-season and could be an in house replacement.

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (6-9)

The Bears made a curious move last week, benching big money quarterback Jay Cutler for journeyman backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler wasn’t necessarily living up to his contract, but the offense wasn’t the issue with the team, as they were moving the chains at a 74.43% rate in Cutler’s 14 starts, which was 11th in the NFL over that period of time (the defense was way worse). Clausen, meanwhile, was horrible in his only NFL action in Carolina in 2010 and did not seem to be a viable long-term solution or any sort of short-term upgrade. It was likely just a last dish effort for head coach Marc Trestman and his coaching staff to save their jobs.

It didn’t work at all. Not only did Clausen struggle in a 20-14 home loss to the Lions, completing 23 of 39 for 181 yards for 2 touchdowns and an interception, leading the Bears’ offense to a 67.86% rate of moving the chains. On top of that, Clausen suffered a serious concussion, spending the night in the hospital and forcing Trestman to go back to Cutler this week. It’s not going to help Trestman save his job because he’s probably gone regardless of the result of this game, but Cutler probably gives them the best chance to win this game.

It’s possible that Cutler would have struggled just as much as Clausen did last week as the Lions have one of the league’s best defenses, but the Bears’ offense was pretty solid through the first 14 games and even if you take last week’s game into account, we’re still getting a significant amount of line value with the Bears here. The Bears rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, moving the chains at a 74.04% rate, as opposed to 76.02% for their opponents, a differential of -1.97%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 28th, moving the chains at a 69.68% rate, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -4.52%.

Despite the fact that the Bears rank significantly better in that aspect, the Vikings are 6.5 point favorites here. We’re getting significant line value with the Bears. There aren’t a ton of good situational trends in play in games this week as most of them rely on upcoming distractions on the schedule, which obviously aren’t a factor week 17, but the Vikings are in a bad spot. Teams with losing records are 41-63 ATS as favorites off of 3 straight covers. It’s a weird one, but it does make some sense.

Losing teams obviously aren’t good teams, but they can be overrated by the odds makers off of 3 straight covers, especially if they’re favorites. In the Vikings past 3 weeks, they’ve kept it close with Miami and Detroit and beat the Jets by 6. It’s not unimpressive, but it’s not enough for them to deserve to be 6.5 point favorites here. They were only 5 point favorites against the Jets and they still needed a pick six and an 86 yard touchdown in overtime to even cover by 1 point. I have a decent amount of confidence in the Bears.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)

At first glance, this line is actually a little bit too low at 7. The Dolphins rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 74.16% rate, as opposed to 72.84% for their opponents, a differential of 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank all the way down at 27th, moving the chains at a 69.08% rate, as opposed to 72.55% for their opponents, a differential of -3.48%. That suggests that the line should be around 8. However, over the past 4 weeks, the Dolphins move the chains at a 73.33% rate, as opposed to 82.09% for their opponents, a differential of -8.76%.

The fact that they’ve played Denver, New England, and Baltimore over that 4 weeks stretch probably didn’t help, but they also almost lost in New York to the Jets. On top of that, the Ravens aren’t nearly as good on the road and they blew out the Dolphins in Miami. And New England is a tough opponent, but they got completely blown out. They only covered once in that 4 game stretch. They aren’t the same team as they were a month ago, partially as a result of injuries. As bad as the Vikings have been this year, they don’t quite deserve to be touchdown underdogs here.

The Vikings are also in a great spot here in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 112-77 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 95-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game.

Both of these two teams have easy games next week, with the Dolphins hosting the Jets and the Vikings hosting the Bears. Both teams will be 6+ favorites next week, but the Vikings are in a slightly better spot because they’re the underdog here. Non-divisional road underdogs are 124-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. Underdogs of 6 or more are 145-96 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 6 or more. Combining the two, non-divisional road underdogs of 6 or more before being divisional home favorites of 6 or more are 39-23 ATS since 1989. At the same time though, favorites of 6 or more (like the Dolphins) are 95-64 ATS since 2010 before being favorites of 6 or more. The Vikings seem like the right side, but I’m not super confident.

Miami Dolphins 20 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at Detroit Lions (9-4)

The Lions are in a good spot here. While they go to Chicago next week, which won’t provide much of a distraction, the Vikings have another tough game on deck, heading to Miami next week. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites and 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. The early line has the Lions favored by 4.5 in Chicago next week. Meanwhile, the early line for Miami/Minnesota is 7 and touchdown underdogs are 77-98 ATS before being touchdown underdogs since 2008.

On top of that, we’re getting some line value with the Lions. They rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.32% rate, as opposed to 70.10% for their opponents, a differential of 1.22%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 27th, moving the chains at a 68.65% rate, as opposed to 73.37% for their opponents, a differential of -4.72%. I’m not that confident in the Lions because there isn’t anything super powerful on their side and because they are still just 2-11 ATS off of a win of 10 or more since 2011, but they should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jets, Uncategorized, Vikings

New York Jets (2-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

Both of these teams will be road underdogs next week, but the Vikings will have a much tougher game. While the Jets will be in Tennessee, the Vikings have to go to Detroit. On top of that, the Vikings are in a bad spot because they are non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, a situation teams are 88-107 ATS in since 2002, but the Jets are in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs. Teams are 100-70 ATS in that spot since 2002.

The Vikings could also be in a bad spot as teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. The Vikings are 5-7 and need to finish 2-2 or better over their final 4 games. They are projected to be favored at home week 17 for Chicago in addition to being favored here so that trend might not necessarily be applicable, but it easily could be. Even if it isn’t, this line is still way too high at 6 points regardless.

The Vikings are even worse than their record suggests, as they rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.53% rate, as opposed to 74.11% for their opponents, a differential of -5.59%. The Jets aren’t good, but they actually rank higher, ranking 27th, moving the chains at a 68.19% rate, as opposed to 72.93% for their opponents, a differential of -4.74%, almost a whole percentage point better than Minnesota. The public saw the Vikings beat the Panthers 31-13 last week, but they ignore that they had 2 touchdowns on blocked punts, which is obviously not sustainable. The Vikings lost the chain game to the Panthers, as they have almost every week this season.

The public is on the Vikings and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense here. Regardless of what record the Vikings finish with, they aren’t deserving of being 6 point favorites over pretty much anyone (except Oakland and maybe Tennessee). Speaking of the Vikings being 6 point favorites this week and speaking of them having a tough game next week, favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more (the early line is 7) since 2002. Between that and the fact that the Vikings are overrated, I like the Jets a good amount here as long as the line is 6 or more.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7)

This line is right about where it should be at 2.5 in favor of the Vikings. The Panthers are a little bit better than the Vikings on the season, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 76.04% for their opponents, a differential of -4.21% that ranks 25th. For comparison, the Vikings are two spots down at 27, moving the chains at a 68.65% rate, as opposed to 73.81% for their opponents, a differential of -5.16%. However, as long as this line is under 3 in favor of Minnesota, we’re not getting any real line value with the Panthers, especially since Star Lotulelei will likely remain out with an ankle injury for Carolina.

However, I do like the Panthers for a low confidence pick this week. I think this game will mean more to them as they look to end a 5 game losing streak. Adding in the tie in Cincinnati, the Panthers haven’t won since week 5 and have one win since week 2. They’re the more desperate and embarrassed team and can take advantage of a Minnesota team that could be flat after playing the Packers so close and losing last week. Teams are 74-54 ATS since 2002 on a 5+ game losing streak. On top of that, teams are 24-9 ATS since 1989 on a 5+ game losing streak off of a bye. They’ve had 2 weeks to regroup and I expect them to get back into the win column this week, though I’m not that confident as long as the line is under 3.

Carolina Panthers 20 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Carolina +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

The Packers have scored 108 points over the past two weeks, outscoring Chicago and Philadelphia by a combined total of 108-34 in back-to-back home games. However, now they have to go on the road, which has been a much bigger challenge for them. This season, they are 5-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road with double digit losses in Seattle, Detroit, and New Orleans. Their relative road struggles are nothing new. Since 2009, the Packers are 39-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.24 points per game. On the other hand, they are 28-22 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.46 points per game, a difference of about 9 points per game.

The Packers have no business being double digit road favorites here, as well as they’ve played in the last two weeks. They only rank 7th in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 79.74% rate, as opposed to 75.89% for their opponents, a differential of 3.85%. As good as they’ve looked, they’ve been overly reliant on a +14 turnover margin, which is hard to rely on week-to-week. It might seem weird that they’d be just 7th, even with the turnover margin thing taken into account, considering how dominant they were over the past two weeks, but you have to remember that they had some struggles to start the season, especially on the road.

On the road, they move the chains at a 79.05% rate, as opposed to 82.94% for their opponents, a differential of -3.89% that’s nowhere near as good as they’ve been at home. They could easily struggle this week, away from Lambeau. The Vikings, meanwhile, move the chains at a 67.93% rate on the season, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.77% that ranks 28th in the league. This line is way too high at 10. There was a significant line movement from 7 to 10 from last week to this week because of how dominant Green Bay was last week and I love fading significant line movements because they’re often unwarranted. The Packers still haven’t proven anything on the public, but the odds makers know they can jack up the line because it’s Green Bay and the public will still be all over it, which they are. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it definitely does this week.

Green Bay Packers 30 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +10

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

The Bears have been blown out in back-to-back games, losing 51-23 in New England and 55-14 in Green Bay in their past 2 weeks. However, I like their chances of bouncing back here. For one thing, teams usually do well off of back-to-back blowout losses, as teams are 40-23 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, including 6-3 ATS since 2002 as favorites. That makes sense as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think the Bears have a good chance to be all three this week, even as favorites. There’s a small sample size with favorites in this situation, but I think favorites’ record in this situation since 2002 suggests two things. One, that teams are not favored off of back-to-back blowout losses very often. Two, that teams still cover and that aforementioned logic stills holds despite being favorited. Teams aren’t usually favored in this situation, but when they are, it’s for good reason.

Despite the fact that they are favored by 3 here and that they got blown out in their last 2 games, we’re actually getting some line value with the Bears, which goes back to the whole they are undervalued thing. They are 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at 76.03% rate, as opposed to 76.79% for their opponents, a differential of -0.76%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 68.63% rate, as opposed to 71.59% for their opponents, a differential of -2.95%. The Bears should be favored by more than a field goal here despite what has happened in the last 2 weeks. At the same time, the Vikings are in a bad spot with a game in Green Bay up next. Teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 28-60 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 8-22 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is Green Bay -7.5). The Bears are the right side here.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: Medium

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